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$10k ACCOUNT TRADE ALERT --
I'm going to use just a small amount of money on this trade.
DECK
BUY -
3 July DECK $60 puts for $1.15 or less
I have two trades I'm looking at for NEXT WEEK.
HON - PUT
TSRA - PUT
I have 5 trade setups for JULY
ALL PUTS
FLS
ITRI
SOHU
ACI
FSYS
Okay, filled personally on 10 at .85 because the stock opened up. That's the trade on the account.
Don't worry about your account. There's a couple trades setting up here. Remember, there's always another one.
ARO is the biggy I think. I see three for July.
Yes, you're right. I'll change it now. It's kind of a tongue twister
PDC's seasonal move isn't until June 30th through July 18th.
Shuli, I did a scan over the last 2 hours going through each stock scanning $10 to $43 (it wouldn't let me go to $45) with min $500k vol, options avail and that's it. It gave me 1200 stocks. If you have EXCEL, use the 'cycle trades' wizard, divide them up by month (does it auto), then hit 'excel' and it will open up Excel and list the trades that way allowing you to print them. You have to do it by long/short.
I'm still going through it, but came across AXCM (obviously 'A' comes first in the list) using strictly the 6 month alert band to scan through each stock. I first saved the lists by month and named them 'june $10/$43 long', then 'june $10/$43 short' etc. Do it month by month saving them in the cycle trade wizard. Once you have that, go to the main chart at the top right, pull down the box to show each of those user lists, find one and it will list all the stocks specifically in that list. Set the chart to 6 months for your OB/OS band reading and just use your arrow key to scroll through them. You'll notice that for example in the 'long' list, still most stocks are in OB land. But it allows you to quickly go through them. I found ACXM this way. Then pull up the seasonal chart and confirm the trade setup. I have for ACXM:
Trade from June 12 to the 26th with a 90% success rate and 8% average profit.
I was debating the June puts, but decided to go with the Julys because of the trade duration. At .95 for the July $12.50 puts, that gets you to $11.50 to be safe. But the chart clearly shows a move to the 50% retrace level off these extremes which would be $10.50, doubling the puts.
Looks like a great trade.
$10k ACCOUNT TRADE ALERT---
Tomorrow, 6/11/09, at open, BUY $1000 worth of the ACXM JULY $12.50 PUTS.
Current option ask price = $.95. Set order to that price or less.
SELL THE EBS CALLS IF YOU BOUGHT THEM ON MY REC THE OTHER DAY. WE BOUGHT THEM AT $1. SELL THEM TOMORROW AT OPEN.
Should be at least $2 bid, probably more. Damn thing ran to $15.30 today.
This is NOT a $10k account trade.
Yeah, in Southern Cal. Shulic is using the same system as I'm using, so you're going to see us both post a lot of stock ideas in posts, however, the actual plays will be specifically mentioned as '$10k TRADE ALERTS'.
Hey Shulic. Good to see you here.
Okay, 1st trade MIGHT be AMED. 6/17 through 7/1 is the date range. Looking at the JULY $35 calls. Right now at .70, but we have a week to get into the trade. Hopefully it falls more, which looks likely. Will advise on the trade when I think it's a go. Not yet..
Also watching AMED. Long trade around mid June. But not yet...
I have two trades that are setting up -- watch closely--
1st one is AAP JULY $40 PUTS at .70 now. The trade is that it falls from 6/28 to 7/13 with an average % fall of 6.8%. The stock is clearly overbought and ready to fall. June many times marks a high in the market, so we could see these retailers begin to fall now. ARO is the next one, but not yet.
It's seasonal trend is to fall from July 23rd to Aug 7th with an average gain on the short of 12%. I'm looking at buying the Aug puts sometime in July. No need to front run it now.
But don't take any trades yet.
Here's a market cycle update:
The evidence continues to trickle in that this market is forming a top of at least short to intermediate term importance and perhaps a far more important top than that. A few more things happened today to back up that opinion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest level in five months today at the same time as the McClellan Oscillator moved into negative territory. This is a very unusual occurrence that has occurred at market tops in the past. It is also important to point out that both the New York Stock Exchange and the S&P advance/decline lines were convincingly negative today with the ratio of declines over advances in the S&P 500 data at 1.92. It is still the case, as we pointed out over the past week or so, that the S&P 500 has failed to break above its high for the year established on January 6th.
There is another important point we should make in terms of market valuation. Most of us have heard analysts and brokers talk about the compelling values that exist because of the historic market decline. We would like to point out that the best value indicator as far as we are concerned is the dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index. It used to be stocks were on the bargain counter when the dividend yields reached 6 percent or higher and the market was at or near a top when the dividend yields reached 3 percent or lower. Those were the good old days! Over the past 10 years or longer investors have convinced themselves that dividend yields are no longer important. We beg to differ and we contend that this market will not be in great buying territory until the dividend yield reaches at least 5% and probably higher than that. We will end this discussion by telling you that the yield on the S&P 500 at the end of last week was 2.4%.
'BC' stands for 'Best Choice', as in 'Best Choice Software'.
Just so you know, these trades come from that software:
AET
TRMB
Ask MRVLReader about his $2k into $11k in a week on TRMB. Many traded AET for a triple in a week.
I went to the Los Angeles Money Show on Sat. I spent 5 hours from 5pm to 11pm Sat night with the guys who wrote the software, Pete Hoyle and Sunny Decker. The software is expensive, ($5k + $50 a month for data) however when you see what it does, wow!. There was a guy there who makes almost $1mill a year using it.
I'm going to trade it here. Basically, it's a stock timing tool using two specific tools to time them. One trade they did last year was on PCLN where they bought the 1 strike ($5) out of the money call THE DAY BEFORE EXPIRATION for $.30 the day of earnigs. They bought the $75 call with the stock at just under $70 on Thursday, the night before Op-Ex Friday. PCLN came out with earnings that night. What happened the next day? The stock gapped open at over $80. .30 into over $5.
They turned $1000 into $18k OVERNIGHT. You should see how this thing picked the CME trades last year. WOW. And all using out of the money calls/puts for pennies.
I get to activate the software on Tuesday when they get back to their offices. They showed a few trades setting up for July. I'll post what I find when I can confirm the trades.
okay, I started a new board called 'BC option trading'. I'm going to use a new $10k account and post all trades on that board using seasonal stock picks to do it. I think you'll be amazed at how it turns out (hopefully).
So, start posting over there....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=15543
First post! I will be abandoning the SPX board in a week. So, start posting here!
We'll talk about everything, but watch for the trade alerts as they come. I'll make everyone aware of them a week or so before I plan to make them.
'stockmarketcycles.com'
You have to understand how the market works --- FEAR rules. But the fear of missing rallies RULES fear of losing money.
Right now, if you look at the mutual fund inflows via TrimTabs, money is pouring back into the market. What appears to be happening is that last fall everyone was freaking out and pulling out money. Today they are back to feeling everything is settling down and driving that money back.
However, if I've learned anything over the years, it's that the market has one purpose - to steal your money anyway it can. Unless you hold for a long time, fo-get-abowed-it.
That's why 85%+ of 'traders' lose. Elidias has an eventual projection of the final low in the DOW at 4000 and SPX with a '4' in front of it. He's been the most right since this all began. Moe has had him on his show many times over the years. I even hear Moe specifically talk about Elidias projections.
You have to understand that now, market seasonality starts to take over and that isn't good for the tech stocks and overall averages. Now biotech/drugs/healthcare start to move. That's why I'm in EBS and BLUD. On Tuesday I'll give out the exact dates to start really piling into those calls. July is going to be a big month for them. Retail stocks like ARO, COH, and LTD all start to really fall the end of this month.
Also oil stocks start to fall. XOM is a big loser from June to July.
But right now the market is in catch up mode. Fully or even overvalued. So, there is a big chance we start to fall big soon. But not like the Fall. SPX 800 is the target. If the market pulls back to that level, it should see a big move up off it. However, if broken, new lows for sure.
But we're a long way from that. All this new money coming in could still be enough to push it higher, completely screwing all the technical guys. But when it runs out, watch out below. The volume has been anemic on the last 1000 points in the DOW which backs up the mutual fund buying and not panic to buy. They are slowly adding, not chasing. So, could get interesting fast.
I'm going to paste what was said tonight. I'm not going to do this very much because I don't want someone complaining about it to them. But I think tonight's update was very interesting...
Because we believe the market is at such a critical juncture, we are again attaching charts to today's update to show you where the market stands on an updated version. To refresh your memory, the rising line is a rising trendline drawn from the exact low of October 11th, 1990 through the exact low of December 9th, 1994. The descending line is an exact trendline from the low of August 16th, 2007 through the low of January 23rd, 2008. The importance of this line is enriched because a parallel line drawn above it through the all-time high in October 2007 virtually exactly intersects the May 19th, 2008 high which was the high for the year last year. As you note from the chart, neither of those lines has been fully met although they have been very closely approached. They do not have to be met, of course, but based on where the market is and what our readings tell us there could be a dramatic reaction in one direction or the other very quickly from these levels. We feel strongly the move will be to the downside.
There is another turning point pattern of potential importance which was due to resolve today with a margin of error of a day or two at the most. The second chart attached to today's update shows this turning point pattern of 104 trading days. The most recent dates of resolution beginning at the all-time high close of October 9th, 2008, with the next date at March 10th, 2008 (in a strong down year, that closing low held for the next four months). After that came August 6th, 2008, a date which showed the greatest margin of error being early by three days but the subsequent decline from there was dramatic. The next resolution was due on January 5th, 2009, and that was a virtual bull's-eye preceding another dramatic market decline over the next two months. The next resolution is due today, June 4th ± a day or two.
If the market decides on a final spurt before what could be a dramatic decline, the two lines in the chart will be between 951.80-957 tomorrow. In fact, unless the market starts down immediately and hard in the morning, there will be a projection up to around the 956 area from the intraday projection charts.
Peter Elidias is saying that if the SPX closes below 906, it would re-establish the 'super bear' case for new lows very quickly.
Keep in mind, they've been the most accurate of all I follow the last year.
I haven't been listening to him but I remember he was thinking this was a larger wave 4 upward correction expecting a final 5th low due Oct-ish.
However, he, along with most technicians who've typically been very good over the years have been completely wrong in their predictive powers on this rally. I mean the best of the best. The market hasn't been acting like it's supposed to act. What I mean is markets don't go straight up without pauses.
That said, it's very clear if you look at the bigger picture of the market, this rally really seems to be nothing more than a big correction. It looks actually quite weak compared to the overall waves.
SPX 1000-ish has always been the upside target area on this. But now you can't make the case for valuation anymore. Now it's strictly hope that the economy will return to 'normal' soon which will be used as an excuse for the market to attempt to return to it's old highs.
I don't buy it. The SPX at 1500 in 2007 was there because of all the free money being thrown around via easy credit. That's gone for a long time. It will return eventually. Wall Street never changes. But Obama-nomics is going to assure there is no such thing as heavy speculation while he's in charge. And that alone will assure the market won't have any justification for making big gains.
It's clear by the huge volume in options that most are using them as synthetic stock plays to gain that 'alpha' return becuase there is no way they can get it in stocks now.
BLUD making a bull flag. I'd be a buyer into this pullback. Buying more of those calls if I can get them under .50. But I doubt it.
Look at AMGN today. You're seeing the rotation into these stocks.
Hey, another two stocks that look ready to explode are
ESI and APOL.
ESI could easily run to $120. I'm not in the trade, but looks good.
You sure are right about that. You see that chart of the SPX above? That near parabolic move up off the March low? Well, remember back in late Feb we were here talking about the TNA calls? I bought 30 of the I think it was June $10 calls with an average of $4ish. I know some were in at $3ish.
I FRIGGN KNEW IT WAS GOING TO DO THIS!!!!!!!!!
But what did I do? I listened to much to Moe. He WAS CONVINCED BASED ON THE HOURLY WAVE COUNT THAT THE MARKET WAS GOING TO DO ONE LAST LEG DOWN UNDER THE MARCH LOW.
Having listened to him for so long, I know that when he says something so strongly, you really have to listen. So, I sold for a couple thousand dollar profit. BUT IT COULD HAVE BEEN FRIGGN' OVER $20k !!!!!! MOE YOU F"cker!
Just kidding, Moe. But damn, shoulda just rode it out. But then again, you just never know. At the time the market seemed to want to keep going lower and everyone was ready in their bomb shelters.
Tyka,
WDC's seasonality is very ugly starting about now. I am almost sure you'll see the high teens on it. But expect possibly just the low $20s if the market catches a bid. I am in the camp that suggests the market could rollover here, but you never know. Keep that one on a tight leash.
BLUD I think has just a ton of potential. I'm in for 100 of those calls because I think it could easily run to $23+ by op-ex. They are very profitable and just affirmed their full year outlook putting them at a forward PE of 12. The stock has historically traded into the high $20s/low $30s on much less earnings power. Actually, every year for the last 5 years they've grown their earnings substantially. Look here-
http://finance.aol.com/earnings/immucor-inc/blud/nas/actuals-estimates
Now seasonally, look here-
http://finance.aol.com/quotes/immucor-inc/blud/nas/average-monthly-returns
July through Sep is very good for the stock. You add in the above and you got a possible monster.
I consider a 'monster' anything that will at least double your money. This could triple or more on those calls I think depending on how fast it moves. But what I like most about both it and EBS is that they are both tiny float stocks that are profitable in seasonally strong times of the year that haven't joined the party in the market yet.
Let's face it, AAPL at $140, RIMM at $82, AMZN on $90, etc, etc. Oh, RIG at $83, FCX at $50, c'mon. Pretty much missed those and they are now getting a little toppy. That leaves all this money looking for a home. Drugs and biotech is where it's at.
The volume also suggests there's much more to come on the upside for these.
EBS going to just $15 will more than double those $12.50 calls.
Okay, here's the trade I'm doing on EBS
I'm buying (not selling the $20 put) the July $12.50 call at $1 or less.
I think it runs easy to $15. That will 150% your money.
Well, technically, keep this in mind. The SPX and DOW both broke out of triangle on Friday. They've been formed from about May 20th. Triangle typically happen at the END of rallies to give that last push higher. Large consolidated moves like triangles are just final pushes.
So, let's see what this brings.
BLUD set to run to $20. Possibly starting tomorrow.
It's that serious of a problem. Remember how when Obama first took office and everytime he opened his mouth the market tanked? He was constantly asked about what he thought of the market's fall and what he was going to do about it and he said he didn't follow the market, nor should anyone else. It will do what it does.
Then, someone got to him and educated him on the ramifications and he quickly changed his tune.
Yes, it sounds conspiratorial and yes, it seems like an attempt to excuse the rally away from anything other than it just going up.
But markets don't just go straight up like this. They stairstep and there is a level of fear out there to not be left out. As I always say, people are more afraid of missing rallies than losing money. However, the best technicians are at a loss because no TA works these days, It just defies all logic. When you then look at what the Fed has done and is doing, it starts to make sense. Then guys like my friend in the 'biz', Greg, who actually works at one of the big firms in NY comes and tells me that they hear from the Street level that there is a ton of this going on. That is, money being diverted into the market to stabalize it.
Now, we're stabalized. However, the continuation seems to be more manipulative than anything. And I don't mean in a bad way. Just that there seems to be a concerted effort to try and 'keep it going' to raise the levels of the averages.
Now the DOW said today they are changing out GM and AIG for CSCO and Travelers Insurance. Those should help the DOW gain because CSCO could easily run up 20% in the next year. However, it won't help the DOW go back to where it was like a move of GM from $1 to $10 would do.
Okay, I have a trade. I think it's a sure thing, but don't quote me on it. BLUD
The seasonality of all these is that the healthcare/biotech stocks rule the summer.
BLUD is at $15 having fallen on some kind of investigation BS. I'm targeting the Sep $20 calls at .50 or less. This could be a bigggy.
As for the market on Friday, understand what's going on and why you have to be carefull about betting on the fall. Yes, the market 'should' go down. However, there are things at work that might not let that happen. Let me explain...
First off, retirement accounts. The government needs everyone's 401ks back so they can fund private retirements rather than the government having to bail them out, too. But really consider the pension funds out there underwater and underfunded. That's a huge monster problem. All state and federal retirement plans are invested in pensions. Most got their asses kicked in this decline and are underfunded. That needs to change. Another reason for 'them' to run the market.
The Fed has systematically tried to kill any investment competitor to the stock market as a viable alternative to the market. Why? For all the reasons above.
The reason gold isn't at $2k or better as it otherwise would be under the current circumstances is because I believe there is a concerted effort to make sure it doesn't happen. Again, 'they' need to make all investments other than stocks un-viable. They desperately need the market back up to again fund the retirement accounts.
There is no way in hell Obama is getting healthcare and any one of the other high tax/spend programs without the market back up.
Now the key here is that the SPX is right at the 200 day MA. I think it's at 943 right now. If the SPX can close convincingly above that, HUGE amounts of money will pile into the market. I think there is a very concerted and I will add 'dubious' attemtp to make that happen. That alone could run the market very well.
So, be carefull betting against it. If there was another big leg down coming as I always thought, you'd see the market much weaker than it is. I doubt there's some large amount of huge selling blocks of stock like there was in the Fall last year because we'd see signs of it. We don't.
Now the problem with all this is the fact that the bond market is warning us to forget about printing any more money. That run to almost 4% the last week was a prelude of what's to come if the Fed and Obama keep it up with the spending and printing.
If the bond market decides to dump bonds because of all that and Obama blows them off, the market is headed to new lows for sure.
But until that happens, don't fight it. The NASI and NYSI are both on weekly sell signals. That's a concern for long traders. But that could change.
Well, here's what I'm looking at ---
ARO
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=f604e955-716d-4b9f-94b7-bb2749048bf8
To change the symbol, just start typing it.
BTW - you guys REALLY should check out 'freestockcharts.com'. How cool is that? It basically is the same as paying Esignal $100 a month. It streams FREE real time on that chart and allows you to do basically everything what you pay other services for. All for FREE.
Anyway, the market is clearly starting to move back into the normal cyclical movements it does. So, I'd expect the normal seasonal moves to happen. That means these retail stocks probably will begin to fall big starting in late June-ish with the big moves in July/Aug. So, with ARO moving higher here, I'd start to move into the Oct $30 puts probably 1 at a time. Maybe 1 every other day to average into them. The reason I say that is because I think it could run to $40ish. But that would bring the options down dramatically. Right now, the 50% retrace is about $25. That will climb if the stock moves higher than $37.50.
Will advise
Okay, here's what I'm focusing on --
ARO and COH, especially ARO, have a major major major seasonal shift south starting really in July. So, the higher they go the better. It could be that ARO is in the process of completing a 5th wave high here. Fine with me. $37+ would be a great place to start getting into a large put positon. I think if traded properly, we could be in for a triple or better.
Hey Blash, I think you're counting wrong. Remember one of the cardinal rules of EW is that the wave 4 low (or high) can't peirce through the wave 1 low or high. So, that negates your first wave pattern.
This is why I hate EW because it's so subjective and almost impossible to trade from. Many were calling for another low below the 666 low because that's supposedly only a wave 3 low on the weekly charts. Our current rally is supposed to be a wave 4. We'll see. I know cycle wise, Oct has a major cycle low due.
However, I have some close friends in the 'biz' and I'm being told that much of the reason for this current rally is from a ton of money from the original TARP being funneled into the market to stabilize it. So, it's very possible this rally is a major head fake and truly a 4th wave.
The bond market gave a major warning to Bernanke and Obama this week as they sold it off for a bit jamming the 10 year to nearly 4% in a week. In other words, 'stop printing money, or else!'.
Gold pushing $1000 and oil now near $70 with near $3 gas, why the hell is the market going up? I'm not too much into conspiracies, but I've heard it from close people who know and they say don't fall for it.
I was doing a scan on my new software and look at this one---
RAH - Ralcorp
It's at $57.27, but is turning pretty strong here. What I'm looking at is the July $60 calls for $1.50. $62.50 could be the easy target.
I'm going to get back to you'all on this one. Could be very interesting. Great earner with a low PE and LOW FLOAT of only 54 mill shares. Stuck in a year long range between $72 and $52.50.
Okay, according to Peter Elidias of StockMarketCycles.com, anytime between now and next Friday should mark this rally's high. June 1st (monday) from another source is calling for a cycle turn date of some degree +/- a day or so.
You have to take what Elidias says seriously because they present an indicator they follow called the 25.8% envelope and speed resistance lines that have proven to litterally stop all market advances. It's really incredible. SPX 910 or so is where it stands now and just look. So, we'll see. I noticed that seasonally, many stocks other than Biotech all start to fall beginning next month and into early Aug with an Aug bounce into Sep that then brings them all down big into Oct.
This Oct is a major cycle low area which could setup for a monster call option buy spree in late Oct.
Yeah. But I am now just short it. Today it had a real hard time with $25. What I notice is that almost all of the storage stocks are topping out.
However, look at LH and KND. All these healthcare sector stocks are seasonally strong from now to July. LH specifically looks like it could move from here ($61) to over $66 and easily to $70. The Aug $70 calls are .50.
I'm trying to decide if there's a sure trade here...
Look at WDC seasonality chart-->>
Watch SPX 910. Having trouble there today because that's the 61.8% retracement level off the decine from Friday. If the SPX moves higher on a closing basis, the theory is that new higher projections are in store.
I was watching CNBC this morning and Art Cashin said from the NYSE floor that almost no one down there believes in the rally for numerous reasons from volume to other things. They almost all expect an attempt at a retest with many thinking lower lows. But the market ain't working for them. So, any move higher is expected to be a possible 'train leaving the second station'.
So, there might be a real possibility of another large rally. However, that most likely would be the biggest of sell-opps because it would be a technical rally, not a fundamental.
In other words, the market is completely juiced due to the stimulus and TARP money.
Be very careful and forget about long term holding.
Ah!, 911. Let's see if the market starts to run.
My problem with the July right now is that if you look at the seasonality chart, you clearly see it doesn't move until mid June. If you were to buy the Julys right now, you'd potentially lose a ton of time value. So, either just wait until June to buy them (which is what I might do) or at least get into a position now using the Oct (since they haven't posted the aug options yet).
AMGN's chart looks like it's ready to explode. It's bouncing off the bottom of it's lower end channel which is where it was at both the Nov and March lows. It's making a clear huge falling wedge and any day could just take off into the $50s. Look at the predictive seasonality chart for it and you'll see a small pullback is expected in early June. That could be from higher prices.
If the market starts pulling back more here, all these healthcare/biotech stocks are going to start to run because they are the defensive rotational sectors for summer. AET has a great seasonal trend starting in late May.