S&P short term cycle swings

[SyndicateTwo]

I haven't been listening to him but I remember he was thinking this was a larger wave 4 upward correction expecting a final 5th low due Oct-ish.

However, he, along with most technicians who've typically been very good over the years have been completely wrong in their predictive powers on this rally. I mean the best of the best. The market hasn't been acting like it's supposed to act. What I mean is markets don't go straight up without pauses.

That said, it's very clear if you look at the bigger picture of the market, this rally really seems to be nothing more than a big correction. It looks actually quite weak compared to the overall waves.

SPX 1000-ish has always been the upside target area on this. But now you can't make the case for valuation anymore. Now it's strictly hope that the economy will return to 'normal' soon which will be used as an excuse for the market to attempt to return to it's old highs.

I don't buy it. The SPX at 1500 in 2007 was there because of all the free money being thrown around via easy credit. That's gone for a long time. It will return eventually. Wall Street never changes. But Obama-nomics is going to assure there is no such thing as heavy speculation while he's in charge. And that alone will assure the market won't have any justification for making big gains.

It's clear by the huge volume in options that most are using them as synthetic stock plays to gain that 'alpha' return becuase there is no way they can get it in stocks now.