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Im going out- spill the beans !!!
Youre right and all I can conclude is that $AMRN is dead money until Christmas time unless we get some major unexpected PR
Ok thank you. Any chance of an earlier ADCOM in your opinion??
I have leaned toward # 2 and still have a ray of hope for Sept 28. Man this stock needs some good news ASAP
They have set a tentative date!! Still doesnt answer as to why JT should keep quiet
The question NOBODY has sufficiently answered—-Why did the FDA tell JT. not to announce an ADCOM??? I just dont get it! Please share your thoughts. I would speculate if I had a clue.
But did he actually say they were not going to do a partial expansion and that he was told this by the FDA??
This was posted on Yahoo — boy do I hope this guy is right “
Wed-Question: Has FDA ever created two PDUFA dates to roll out an expanded label? Stockvadar-ponders
Opinions are invited as well as any knowledge regarding the question. AMRN has obviously not been informed the 28 September PDUFA date has been changed, and the FDA's advice to 'put a lid on it' creates a lot speculation. Could it be the FDA intends to render >135 triglycerides as reflective of the priority review, but then put this arteriosclerosis issue on the table for the AdCom followed by a second PDUFA decision?
Given the FDA hasn't exactly followed its own handbook, why not? It could be the FDA is ready to render a >135 triglyceride decision (in the affirmative by/before 28 September), but the wider cardio-vascular arteriosclerosis issue has led to the November AdCom followed by an additional decision. Could it be AMRN also informed the FDA of the imminent Evaporate data such that it effected the timetable?
So then, why does this matter? It matters because a >135 triglyceride label may be imminent, and if so (until the FDA clarifies otherwise), there is going to be an earth-shaking upward move in the pps should such a decision be rendered. Insightful comments are invited. Could it be the FDA is about to render a decision and just didn't want JT to shoot himself in the foot until he would hear how Vascepa is getting one immediate expansion, and there may be another one later this year? Could it be the FDA had a good intention, but awkwardly communicated?”
Bravo big boy. Sorry to hear about your brother JL
Right on. Time to put AMRN hotshot legal team on the offensive with the FDA AMRN has played ball with the FDA and this is the thanks they get. The label expansion should come on Sept 28 as announced and an ADCOM can deal with further expansion for December
Boy do I hope you are wrong. 5 years?? Give me a break
Hope youre right. I will take any increase now. This stock wears me out. V is so great- it just keeps me going
Why should we expect any PR now?
Excuse me if Im not excited about a $15 SP. This stock should be minimum $35-40 by now ADCOM notwithstanding
I have to agree. I think there will be a label expansion in Sept and the ADCOM will be about further expansion in Dec. That would make for a Merrier Christmas
Me too- JT and the BOD better realize BP will just not roll over and let AMRN take $ $billions from them with V. I would take a recently deflated PFE stock or certainly a NVS stock with V onboard A $13 PPS nearly a year after R-I is not acceptable to me
If anyone has looked at PFE's price lately, it is going down due to revenue streams drying up. They need a big drug bad. Big Pharm owns the FDA. The FDA gets most of thier funding through Big Pharm drug sales. I could see PFE, which most FDA personnel who get in trouble go to work for, trying to influence the FDA so they can scoop up AMRN at a better price.
If anyone has looked at PFE's price lately, it is going down due to revenue streams drying up. They need a big drug bad. Big Pharm owns the FDA. The FDA gets most of thier funding through Big Pharm drug sales. I could see PFE, which most FDA personnel who get in trouble go to work for, trying to influence the FDA so they can scoop up AMRN at a better price.
JT needs to sell this to BP. He's done a good job getting Amrn thru Reduce-It, but he and small, narrow management team are out of their league. This asset in hands of BP would already be approved for expanded label by now (sadly because BP has lobbyists, lawyers and connections) JT has had too many deer in the headlights events just in last month: First, saying no immediate need for secondary and then announcing secondary. Next, saying Ad Com unlikely, then two weeks later an Ad Com. I continue to be a long term holder, but path forward is not to string out a GIA option
Yes I think the ADCOM will be ok. V is too strong to fail but I also hope that once we finally get expanded label and we get a $30 plus PPS JT sells to BP. I have had it with this soap opera. I would rather own BP stock with V onboard than AMRN any day!!!
One can hope otherwise moving back an expanded label 2-3 months out of the blue is inexcusable given that AMRN was granted priority review
For sure- AMRN cant do this alone
This is the first time I have heard JT ticked off. He clearly doesnt like what happened. Im not brimming with confidence after listening to him. I dont think we will see $23 again for a long time
So FDA gives priority review only to call an ADCOM cant meet for 6 weeks AFTER Sept 28 deadline. This thing smells. I dont trust an ADCOM.
The same post could have been written a year ago and most would have agreed with you but the last 10 plus months have proved that this stock is controlled by shorts. They aren't going away after label expansion. Im long for nearly five years. Im waiting for a BO from BP who can actually weather all the storms that mightily affect AMRN
Must be nice to be NVS. PPS only down 2% after data manipulation of their gene therapy trial was announced. If AMRN did that we'd be back in the low single digits. Shorts cant pull as much crap with a higher priced stock like NVS
Im not trying to be anything. I want a BO. This post was simply to illustrate how optimistic folks were 10 months ago. The shorts are in control
Amen!! I came to that conclusion about 8 months ago. The shorts control this stock
This was posted on yahoo before the AHA last fall - some interesting tidbits——“n. Net Present Value with float of 370 million shares - $31 dollars per share.
Poor case scenario: Amarin has same market share but reduces admin and sales to the point that net profit is 25% of sales – Net Present Value - $78 dollars per share.
Good scenario: Amarin gets 9 million patients U.S. and 9 million abroad – i.e. the entire statin treated population with high TG. At 10% net profit NPV is $93 per share.
Same scenario of 18 million patients but net profit of 25% - NPV is $233 per share.
Great scenario – same patient population but admin and sales reduced to a net 40% profit – NPV is $373 per share.
Amazing scenario – 50 million patients (half of total possible high TG patients – assuming Vascepa is granted status as a stand-alone treatment for non- statin treated people.) At a 25% net profit – NPV is $649 dollars per share.
Blow-out scenario – 50 million patients and 40% net profit – NPV is $1037 per share. Nearly $400 billion in profits (in current dollars).
So, whether you are just like us holding shares or a Pharma exec looking at acquiring Amarin - the value ranges from $31 per share at worst to over $1000 per share. In a "dream" scenario of 100 million patients, Vascepa could even generate $800 billion or $2000 a share.
I think that great results announced at AHA and we are in the good scenario or better - at least 5 times higher than current share price. Very worst, and we are up only 40-50% from here and I think that really is not that likely. If CANTOR and CITI have done any real analysis of the revenue stream this could generate, I don't understand how they have such conservative price targets of 60 and 50. I think 90-100 per share is a "conservative" PT!”
In the short term yes but if NVS buys AMRN the NVS PPS will take off within months
Thats IF NVS buys AMRN
I was thinking the same thing - NVS PPS is low now but it will go to $125 after they get V
NVS based in Switzerland BO AMRN. KILL 2 birds with one stone
If you're right— Im really bummed
NVS suffers yet another failure. How much will they
Bpay for V??https://www.investors.com/news/technology/novartis-stock-dives-fda-gene-therapy-maker-knew-application-errors/
NVS has another failure. How much would they be willing to pay for the biggest winner of the 21st Century??https://www.investors.com/news/technology/novartis-stock-dives-fda-gene-therapy-maker-knew-application-errors/
You may be on to something brother. AMRN is just too small to do such a massive marketing plan that your scenario would entail
Yes by NVS- kill two birds with one stone. NVS current PPS ($91) jumps to $125-150 in a year with a healthy dividend- I can dream cant I??
Nothing would surprise me with this stock. I thought it might have happened when it went down to $13. BP can be ruthless
He should if he doesnt- the stockholders just gave him $450 mil. Get real