Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Markipeach]

This was posted on yahoo before the AHA last fall - some interesting tidbits——“n. Net Present Value with float of 370 million shares - $31 dollars per share.

Poor case scenario: Amarin has same market share but reduces admin and sales to the point that net profit is 25% of sales – Net Present Value - $78 dollars per share.

Good scenario: Amarin gets 9 million patients U.S. and 9 million abroad – i.e. the entire statin treated population with high TG. At 10% net profit NPV is $93 per share.

Same scenario of 18 million patients but net profit of 25% - NPV is $233 per share.

Great scenario – same patient population but admin and sales reduced to a net 40% profit – NPV is $373 per share.

Amazing scenario – 50 million patients (half of total possible high TG patients – assuming Vascepa is granted status as a stand-alone treatment for non- statin treated people.) At a 25% net profit – NPV is $649 dollars per share.

Blow-out scenario – 50 million patients and 40% net profit – NPV is $1037 per share. Nearly $400 billion in profits (in current dollars).

So, whether you are just like us holding shares or a Pharma exec looking at acquiring Amarin - the value ranges from $31 per share at worst to over $1000 per share. In a "dream" scenario of 100 million patients, Vascepa could even generate $800 billion or $2000 a share.

I think that great results announced at AHA and we are in the good scenario or better - at least 5 times higher than current share price. Very worst, and we are up only 40-50% from here and I think that really is not that likely. If CANTOR and CITI have done any real analysis of the revenue stream this could generate, I don't understand how they have such conservative price targets of 60 and 50. I think 90-100 per share is a "conservative" PT!”