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Good advise.
Cougar, its OK to bitch. We have all lost lots but now all we can do is sell or hold. I plan to hold because I fell that its too low to sell now and better days are ahead.
Vero, I am with you 100%. Have a great weekend and lets hope we don't have to wait too long for this to turn around.
Thanks
I with you, when things look the bleakest, the turn around can be big. I hope its soon?
No I don't but if it gets to .10 I will break even so I will hold.
I would not sell down here. This will pop on any news and when it does you will hate yourself. I have had Murphy newsletter a long time and if he felt it was going to Zero, he would say sell. He is waiting because he thinks double digit are very possible.
Mike Murphy WiMAX MegaShift
"If he can find another source of funding, the stock will be in double digits (cents) in a hurry, and I think we should hang in there for that possibility. As for management distraction, you are right -- but at least we haven't seen many bailing out yet."
MobilePro (MOBL) was the subject of a question from George: "I understand that you recommended MobilePro as a highly speculative company that might well not make it. Question: Is it not in Cornell Capital's best interest to stop the dilution of the stock and ensure the success of this company? If MobilePro goes under, how does Cornell Capital gain? Also, if new capital could be obtained and Cornell Capital removed from the equation, how big of a pop might there be given the current business fundamentals? Finally, do you feel comfortable with the trend of their business/orders? I would think key corporate members are looking for a place to land if/when they go under and might not be focused on the work at hand."
Cornell Capital is being investigated by the SEC for short selling stocks of companies to which they have lent money -- possibly "naked" short selling, which would explain the large number of "fails to deliver" that plague MOBL -- and making their money as the stock collapses. If MOBL had to file bankruptcy, Cornell Capital would squeeze out the shareholders and own all the businesses, technology, etc. They could then restructure the company, sell some parts, buy other things and take it public again some day. I am not saying that they are selling short or that this is their plan, but an awful lot of companies they get involved with wind up selling for pennies. I was counting on Jay Wright, an experienced Wall Streeter, to steer around this trap, but he has fallen into it. If he can find another source of funding, the stock will be in double digits (cents) in a hurry, and I think we should hang in there for that possibility. As for management distraction, you are right -- but at least we haven't seen many bailing out yet. MOBL remains a hold to see if the CEO can resolve the
Emisphere Technologies Inc. (EMIS) but I would buy Isolagen Inc. (ILE) instead. He also recommends ILE. Better long term potential and possible next DNDN
With an 18M market Cap, if this is accomplished. I believe it will. The share price will rise significantly. If its not accomplished, the compay is still worth much more than .03. Not a time to sell. If you own it just hold on.
He must be averaging down also.
PINE VALLEY MNG CORP COM (PVMCF: OTC BB)
Basic Materials : Gold & Silver
Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Volume Trade
0.068 +0.013 (+23.64%) 0.064 x5,000 0.068 x5,000 105,970
PINE VALLEY MNG CORP COM (PVMCF: OTC BB)
Basic Materials : Gold & Silver
Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Volume Trade
0.068 +0.013 (+23.64%) 0.064 x5,000 0.068 x5,000 105,970
Its Sanford Burnsten. The last time they doengraded they upgraded 2 weeks later. I think thay did this so they can get a large position. I just bought more.
http://www.sun.com/servers/coolthreads/tnb/power.jsp
Welcome to the Sun Fire CoolThreads Servers Try and Buy Power Meter Program
The need to fuel the global power grid grows. So does the appetite for faster, better, cheaper computing infrastructure. But faster can be cooler. Better can be cleaner. Cheaper can be greener. It's called eco responsibility. Your business benefits - reduced energy and datacenter costs - and so does the environment.
Learn more about eco responsibility and access tools to help you deliver an efficient datacenter.
Sun Fire CoolThreads servers have been proven to deliver breakthrough performance while dramatically reducing energy and space consumption, allowing customers to instantly add new capacity to their over-burdened data centers, while at the same time slashing costs.
To enable customers to obtain an accurate measure of power consumption, Sun provides handy web-based power calculators for both the Sun Fire T1000 Server and Sun Fire T2000 Server.
While the calculators are extremely reliable, the most accurate method of assessing energy consumption is by measuring the actual power consumed by your server, in your environment, running your workloads. To assist in this process, Sun has created this guide to demonstrate how to use low cost power meters with the Sun Fire CoolThreads servers.
By now you all know that I love MOBL. I now have enough of MOBL and plan to hold all my shares and wait. MOBL will pay off big but we now need other fresh money to dive this stock way up and it will come. But don't forget to also diversify. I think now is the perfect time to add some SUNW with any new money. Friday I added SUNW with some of my DNDN profits and I expect SUNW to be a multi year hold with major potential. Their servers are what all the WiFi is being build on.
They also are now selling big into the Financial sector and with their new "Cool Threads Server Line" The environmentalists will love them. Also see me post:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18375696
http://www.sun.com/servers/coolthreads/tnb/start.jsp
This company stock is a hugh buy right now. They are doing all the right things to build an earning machine. EPS for Several years from now it could be a $100 stock. This year it should hit $10.
To: All of Sun
From: Jonathan Schwartz
Subject: Announcing a new business, and a new leader (or two)
I announced a few organizational changes this morning, and I want to be sure everyone hears directly from me about my motivations and expectations.
As you know, we've opened a world of opportunity by ensuring Solaris is available on Dell, HP and IBM hardware. We can now talk to what were traditionally non-Sun customers. Similarly, our moves to build an x64 systems business, and bring Linux to the SPARC platform, have made us relevant to non-Solaris customers. As of today, I'm seeking to repeat that effect with our Microelectronics, or silicon investments. I'd like to see our chip business grow beyond Sun's own systems, and more broadly in the marketplace.
So I've formed a Microelectronics group, which will be led by Dr. David Yen (yes, that David Yen). David and team will focus on building Sun's Microelectronics business - embedded within, and beyond, Sun's systems.
Why now?
Because we have innovations (in platforms like Niagara, Rock and our Neptune project) that companies beyond Sun are interested in embedding in their devices. And I want to have a focused, independent team driving those opportunities and monetizing Sun's innovation - from networking and cryptography, to the future of power management and high performance computing. Our Niagara platforms, on their way to delivering their first billion dollars to Sun, prove silicon investments deliver competetive advantage. This change puts more fuel in that engine.
What happens to the Storage business? Two things.
First, I'm elevating Jon Benson to my staff to run our Storage group. He'll be responsible for all products and solutions purpose built for the Storage marketplace. These include our SAN, Tape, Archive and OEM products and partnerships. Having worked alongside Jon for the past year, I have every faith he's got the energy and innovative insights to bring new value to all of Sun. So congratulations, Jon, and welcome to the Executive Leadership Team.
Now, looking to products like Thumper (aka, the x4500) and Solaris/ZFS, it's clear the rise of general purpose systems running open source software open a new opportunity in the network attached storage (or NAS) market. NAS vendors who aren't joined up with a Systems (read, Server) company are finding it difficult to differentiate in hardware - via power efficiency, systems management or packaging. Still other storage vendors, unable to leverage a volume open source operating system, are feeling the strain of using proprietary OS's - which can't attract developer communities.
So with this shift, I'm also transferring ownership and resources for our NAS hardware offerings to the Systems group. I expect the teams to collaborate, and compete based on different approaches. And I expect us to have the kinds of insights the market wants, as customers use our offerings and innovation to manage their own information lifecycle.
Although transferring the NAS hardware team to Systems is a very small move in terms of people, it's a substantive one strategically, which I wanted to highlight. We're doubling our focus on storage - by broadening the teams with a stake in our Storage success.
We continue to see our customers's storage environments as loosely coupled, but highly aligned - those within a bank responsible for archiving teller surveillance videos have little in common with those running real-time trading systems. But they both buy and manage storage, they both worry about security and economics, and they both expect value from Sun. In recognizing the distinction and synergies, in every industry we serve, we're hoping to build an even stronger world class storage business.
So in summary - I'm creating a new Microelectronics Group, headed by David Yen. I'm elevating Jon Benson to lead our Storage Group. And I'm asking John Fowler and the Systems team to drive our NAS roadmap, leveraging Solaris and our Systems expertise.
With that, here are some of my favorite internal questions:
When is this effective?
Immediately. There are still some small organizational issues to be resolved, but the substantive transitions are effective immediately - and we're talking to new Microelectronics opportunities as I type this! Stay tuned for "interesting news."
Does this mean you're setting these businesses up to spin them out?
No, we're not setting them up to spin them out. Let me say that again, just in case you're asked - or a competitor suggests as much to our customers. No, we're not setting them up to spin them out. We're setting them up to focus their energy and attention.
By combining NAS Storage with your Systems team, aren't you defocusing them?
No, we're actually focusing them. Do customers want storage blades? NAS platforms built and managed via a common operating system and provisioning environment? A virtualization approach that spans data and apps (and the network)? The answer's yes to all the questions - and we're uniquely positioned to deliver all the answers.
Does this imply the decline of Tape or SAN storage? The dominance of NAS?
Quite the opposite - growth in storage won't decline for as long as we're on this earth. Our ability to innovate across primary and secondary storage, across SANs and NAS (and DAS), positions us to grow, not shrink. We run businesses to grow them.
Will there be any changes in Sun's field organization - in Sales, Service or Support?
Nope. Changing how we build something has no bearing on how customers buy it.
I want everyone to know I take reorgs very seriously - I know they absorb time and energy, and run the risk of defocusing teams. I also know they're necessary if we want to lead the market, vs. follow it. Now's the time to lead, in Microelectronics, Systems, Storage, Software and Services.
In closing, there's one message I'd like to convey to those involved in this shift: we are a business driven by innovation, and our ability to deliver it faster than the competition. A time to market advantage is among our most important - please work with your managers and their management to ensure we stay focused on the deliverables at hand. Your peers, our shareholders, and our customers depend upon it. Pace matters.
Thanks,
Jonathan
Posted on 10:21PM Mar 27, 2007 | Comments[19]
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Sunday Mar 18, 2007
A Thing of Beauty
Given the diversity (and temperament) of the customers we serve, I don't normally do product plugs. But having just used (not just installed - I said used) Google Maps on my new Blackberry Pearl mobile handset, I have only one thing to say.
The grace with which it works comes close to a religious experience.
Posted on 08:12PM Mar 18, 2007 | Comments[21]
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Monday Mar 12, 2007
Moving A Petabyte of Data
(With apologies for the headfake of posting this entry then taking it down - my fingers were working faster than my brain, and I accidentally posted the entry without completing it. Or proofreading it.)
I made a speech last week at which I asserted it was faster to send a petabyte of data from San Francisco to Hong Kong by sailboat, than by the internet.
I got quite a few "how can that possibly be true?" kinds of questions, so here's the math. (Full disclosure, I am a mathematician by training, which guarantees me a lifetime of small "off by one" errors in all subsequent calculations - so if I get something wrong, be gentle).
A petabyte is a thousand terabytes, which is a million gigabytes, or a billion megabytes. Or 8 billion megabits. With me so far?
So if you had a half megabit per second internet connection, which is relatively high in the US (relatively low compared to residential bandwidth available in, say, Korea), it'd take you 16 billion seconds, or 266 million minutes, or 507 years to transmit the data. Can you sail to Hong Kong faster than that? At a full megabit, just divide the time in half. Even at a hundred megabits (about the highest, generally available, of any carrier I've seen), it's a few years.
As Hal Stern once said to me, "Never understimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full of storage driving down the [New] Jersey Turnpike" - and now you understand why tape based storage has such a lasting appeal to so many enterprises recording, compiling, transporting or just plain archiving, very large quantities of data. From video surveillance to trading data. Standard tapes are 500GB each (currently), and fit nicely into cardboard boxes with overnight express labels.
One other big benefit to tape as an archive format? When the data's at rest, it consumes no electricity - just imagine a petabyte of data spinning on even the most power efficient disk storage (for reference, a petabyte of active disk-based storage is the equivalent of more than 40 Thumpers, each drawing more than a kilowatt - and tipping the scales at something north of 150 lbs, slightly tougher to put on a sailboat, or in an overnight envelope). For data to be available, disks have to be kept spinning and cool (tape has no equivalent requirement).
Now there is no one hammer for all nails, and tape isn't perfect for a lot of applications (near line storage, eg) - but it plays a prominent role in some remarkably cutting edge high performance computing applications, along with social networking and content aggregation sites (who think nothing of gathering terabytes of data every day) - tape archive isn't just for banks or telcos running mainframes (although we're good there, too).
So yes, at least for now, it's faster to send a petabyte of data via a sailboat than the internet (at least defined by the bandwidth to which most of us have access).
Which btw, is another reason we're refreshing our Solaris on DVD program - it's more efficient for many folks to get a 4 Gigabyte DVD in the mail (for FREE) than nurse our download centers, a megabit at a time. (And I apologize for how slow the DVD deliveries have been - we haven't exactly executed perfectly here, but hopefully it's getting better as I type.)
And I don't want to even think about moving a zettabyte.
Posted on 05:48PM Mar 12, 2007 | Comments[36]
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Thursday Mar 08, 2007
The best part is I sold it 80% at $18. What a lucky move. I plan to hold DNDN as I believe it could be a $50 stock in a few years.
Now with MOBL, just found out the the big 3 AT&T, Verizon & Quest are all going to invest hevily in WiMax and are looking to all make acquistions. This will make a company like MOBL worth much more soon.
Mobile & Wireless Header
http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2109422,00.asp
Former Presidents Bush and Clinton Seek Unity Through Wireless
By Wayne Rash
March 29, 2007
Be the first to comment on this article
ORLANDO, Florida—Former Presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton on March 29 urged the wireless industry to help create unity and reduce division using wireless communications in innovative ways to help the global economy grow.
ADVERTISEMENT
At the CTIA conference here, President Clinton noted that more than half the world lives on wages that are below two dollars a day, and he said that in many places wireless communications media, including cell phones, are all that's needed to enable commerce in otherwise depressed areas.
President Bush said that wireless communications and global communications technology are already making the world a safer place than when he was president. "The importance of telecommunications in my time was obvious when Desert Storm reached the end game," Bush said. "In 1991 in a meeting with my advisors we realized our objective of kicking Saddam out of Kuwait had been achieved." Bush said that he was advised that the time had come to stop the war, especially after the horrifying images of the "Highway of Death" surfaced. "No one in the Oval Office dissented; I asked if the generals agreed," he said. "Colin Powell went around to my desk and asked for General Schwarzkopf, and we were talking to 'Stormin' Norman' in 30 seconds. At midnight that night desert storm officially ended after a 100-hour ground war."
Bush said that since that time, world leaders have had unprecedented access to global communications. He related one instance in which he helped defuse a crisis in the Middle East while using a cell phone from the deck of his boat while fishing. Bush predicted that wireless communications would be a powerful force in bringing democracy to the world. He related a story in which he was told about former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl's prediction that East Germany would soon fall. The reason? Television commercials that were being seen by the East Germans were showing them a better life.
View Slide Show: Bush and Clinton at CTIA
"Thanks to technology the genie was coming out of the bottle," Bush said. He said that the same thing will happen in China. He said that since he was Ambassador to China 25 years ago, he has seen the changes there. "Since 25 years ago you can say your industry brought more democracy to China," Bush said. "We have seen a world divided become a world transformed," he said, "There is more democracy and there is more freedom."
Clinton said that by their very nature, Americans communicate. "This country in the oldest democracy in human history because we're in the solutions business," Clinton said, explaining that solutions are only possible through communications.
Clinton said that the world is becoming more interdependent and with such interdependency, communications at all levels becomes critical. "The fundamental nature of the world today is interdependence," Clinton said. "You are on the cutting edge of the economy," Clinton noted, but he added that the interdependence isn't equal. "Half of the world is living on less than two dollars a day," he said.
PointerClick here to listen to a podcast about CTIA's growing influence in industry and government.
Clinton said that an increase in interdependency and equality could go a long way to reducing tensions. "If you think about [it], a lot of the world's problems [are] rooted in the perversions of religion. An identity is picked out and is made to be more important than an identity they might have with someone else." Clinton said that with improved communications, people might avoid this both because they are less alienated economically, and because they view others as people rather than objects to be attacked.
eWEEK.com Special Report: CTIA Wireless
Clinton also said that wireless technology is helping economies in a variety of unexpected ways. He said that when he was in Haiti, the fastest-growing business there was people selling SIM cards on the street, people that might otherwise be involved in crime. "In health care, we have a big project in Rwanda," Clinton said. "We couldn't function out there without cell phones and solar power."
Clinton said that another promising area of growth is in micro credit via the Internet. He said that one unique use for such credit is loans to Afghan women, who use their loans to buy cell phones. They then sell time on those phones to other Afghans who want to make calls for business or to their relatives in other countries. "There is a Web site called kiva.org," Clinton said. He said that the site allows individuals to provide funds for micro lending. "You can become an international micro credit lender," he said. "You can have a chance to bring the world together rather than being torn apart by destructive identities," Clinton said.
A short question-and-answer session was devoted to Bush's enthusiasm for his BlackBerry and on the value of bloggers as antidotes to the Washington press corps. "The hour that I'm going to be here is the longest I can be away from my BlackBerry," Bush said, "I'm hooked."
Following the speeches, Bush and Clinton toured the CTIA show to check out the latest in wireless technology.
PointerCheck out eWEEK.com's Mobile & Wireless Center for the latest news, reviews and analysis on mobile and wireless computing.
Thanks, you need one like this every now and then. I plan to use some of my profit to buy 200K of MOBL.
Guys, I have waited over 2 years for DNDN to come in and it has big time just like Mike Murphy said. This one will also pay off. When I don't know but I don't plan to sell any doen here.
No one is selling down here so it won't take musch buying to move this up big time. All we need is some news to get some big buying to occur and we will all be smileing. Have a great weekend all.
Stock shoukd hit $7.50 in April as the beat all analysts numbers.Sales up across all business unites and with a focus on the environment these servers will continue to sell big time. More new produst on the way.
Sun Hits Key Milestone With 'CoolThreads'(TM) Servers, Solaris 10 By Surpassing One Million CPU Threads Shipped
Eco-Efficient Sun Fire(TM) T1000 and T2000 Servers Helped Prevent Emission
Of An Estimated Half A Billion Pounds Of CO2
SANTA CLARA, Calif., March 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Sun
Microsystems, Inc. (Nasdaq: SUNW) today announced that it has shipped over
one million CPU "threads," and passed the half-billion dollar revenue mark
for its Sun Fire(TM) T1000 and T2000 servers.
You correct its theory but we would all love to get a few. With PVMCF, MOBL & NEOM (TS got me into these when I bought his MC newsletter) I need several 50% days.
"Then if you get a day when it's up 50%"
When? Not with the micros he has reccommended over the last few years.
Hit Etrade News at 12:51
NeoMedia Technologies, Inc. Announces Availability of qodeTechnology as a BREW Application
PR Newswire - March 19, 2007 12:51 PM ET
Related Quotes
Symbol Last Chg
NEOM Trade 0.044 +0.002
QCOM Trade 43.21 -0.47
Real time quote.
NeoMedia Technologies, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: NEOM), a global leader in mobile enterprise and marketing technology, announced today that its flagship qode(R) barcode reader/window technology (http://www.qode.com) is available as a BREW(R) application for mobile devices. QUALCOMM's flexible BREW offerings provide industry-leading publishers and developers with the tools necessary to create compelling mobile content services and applications.
Any wireless service provider offering BREW services can now choose to provide qode via its wireless data offerings. Qode on BREW will enable content and media companies to market their services and extend their brand through camera phones.
By extending its qode application and technology to the BREW solution, NeoMedia has "broadly expanded its coverage of the market space," said Chas Fritz, acting CEO and chairman of NeoMedia Technologies.
"By offering qode as a BREW application, NeoMedia has been able to add over 45 mobile handsets to our portfolio of qode handsets," Fritz said. "By leveraging QUALCOMM's BREW solution, we have significantly increased handset coverage for qode with a solution that has proven to be successful in the global wireless market."
"NeoMedia's qode has demonstrated that mobile content extends beyond ringtones and wallpapers to include something as innovative as a barcode reader application," said Christophe Bernard, staff manager, developer relations for QUALCOMM Internet Services. "qode on BREW represents a positive step for NeoMedia in extending the reach of its qode service, which will help assist wireless service providers in offering truly differentiated service offerings to wireless end users."
NeoMedia's qode includes qodereader(R) and qode window(R), providing One Click to Content(TM) connectivity for products, print, packaging and other physical objects to link directly to specific desired content via the mobile internet. qode reader works with camera enabled phones, letting users "click" on two-dimensional "smart codes" for a direct connection to desired multimedia information, advertising, promotions and content, etc., and qode window lets users enter a key word, slogan, barcode number or other unique identifier, for similar connection.
BREW solutions change the way people relate to wireless data services. By enabling discovery and delivery of high-value content, BREW creates opportunities for the wireless industry to enhance consumers' mobile data experience. QUALCOMM's comprehensive and targeted BREW Signature Solutions offer reduced time-to-market and lower capital investment for companies providing mobile products and services. Customers can also benefit from several modular BREW offerings, including uiOne(TM), deliveryOne(TM) and QPoint(TM), which provide the foundation for customer-differentiated wireless data capabilities.
About NeoMedia Technologies, Inc.
NeoMedia Technologies, Inc. (http://www.neom.com), is a global leader in mobile enterprise and marketing technology, bridging the physical and electronic world with innovative direct-to-mobile-Web technology solutions. NeoMedia's flagship qode service links the world's leading companies to the wireless, electronic world. NeoMedia is headquartered in Fort Myers, FL, with an office in Aachen, Germany.
The qode suite of easy-to-use, market-driven products and applications are based on a strong foundation of patented technology, comprising the qode (www.qode.com) platform, qode reader and qode window, all of which provide One Click to Content(TM) connectivity for products, print, packaging and other physical objects to link directly to specific desired content on the mobile Internet.
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. With the exception of historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this press release involve risk and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement.
qode is a registered trademark, andqode reader, qode window and One Click to Content are trademarks of NeoMedia Technologies, Inc.
QUALCOMM and BREW are registered trademarks of QUALCOMM Incorporated. uiOne, deliveryOne and QPoint are trademarks of QUALCOMM Incorporated. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
SOURCE NeoMedia Technologies, Inc.
Peter Moore of Walek & Associates, +1-212-590-0533, pmoore@walek.com, for
NeoMedia Technologies, Inc.
http://www.neom.com
Thanks, Read all your DD, I feel it will be approved nad then off to the races
TS listed the latest disclosures for his Changewave Microcp newsletter
Date: March 1, 2007
Securities Owned By Josh Levine:
1. Antares Pharma(AIS)
2. MobilPro (MOBL)
3. Raptor Networks (RPTN)
The Editor Tobin Smith, directly or indirectly, owned the following securities which are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in the newsletter, and those stocks are set forth below:
Date: March 14, 2007
Securities Owned By Tobin Smith:
1. Integral Technologies (ITKG)
2. Mobilepro Corp. (MOBL)
3. OMNI Energy Services (OMNI)
4. Raptor Technology (RPTN)
5. X-Change Corp (XCHC)
I think some people are limiting their risk. Here is yesterdays update:
From Mike Murphy New World Investor 3/15/2007:
Dendreon (DNDN) reported December fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. They lost $21.5 million or 28 cents a share in the quarter, and had $121.3 million in cash on the balance sheet. So, they are in excellent shape to get to the May 15 FDA decision and beyond, even without signing a distribution partnership. There is nothing quite as nice as negotiating those deals from a position of strength. I think this management has done an excellent job of protecting and maximizing shareholder value.
On the conference call, management said that Provenge will be reviewed by the FDA's Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee on March 29, so now we have a critical date coming up. There will be a conference call after the Committee votes, and I expect the Advisory Committee to recommend approval for relapsed prostate cancer patients who have run out of other options. That recommendation could vault DNDN to my $14 target all by itself. Now is the time to load up on this stock if you are ever going to own it, assuming you can take the risk of a turn-down by the Committee.
From Mike Murphy New World Investor today:
Dendreon (DNDN) reported December fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. They lost $21.5 million or 28 cents a share in the quarter, and had $121.3 million in cash on the balance sheet. So, they are in excellent shape to get to the May 15 FDA decision and beyond, even without signing a distribution partnership. There is nothing quite as nice as negotiating those deals from a position of strength. I think this management has done an excellent job of protecting and maximizing shareholder value.
On the conference call, management said that Provenge will be reviewed by the FDA's Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee on March 29, so now we have a critical date coming up. There will be a conference call after the Committee votes, and I expect the Advisory Committee to recommend approval for relapsed prostate cancer patients who have run out of other options. That recommendation could vault DNDN to my $14 target all by itself. Now is the time to load up on this stock if you are ever going to own it, assuming you can take the risk of a turn-down by the Committee.
From Mike Murphy on DNDN
I'll be watching three things especially carefully for the next six months or so:
* The progress of these bills through the Senate and House
* Wall Street's reaction or overreaction
* The FDA's approval record, especially the May 15 2007 announcement on Provenge by Dendreon (DNDN).
Regarding that last bullet, I had a question from Aneil: "Michael, how sure are you about Dendreon? The stock is starting to pick up steam. This usually happens with new biotech companies awaiting an FDA approval. Might be a good ride up until the time frame when the FDA announcement will be made. After then, it seems so risky that I'm not very sure if the risk/reward can be justified. Any thoughts?"
I follow a three-step process to make a judgment call on whether a drug will be approved or not. You will not be surprised to learn that I've been both right and wrong both ways. I'm generally more right than wrong, but that's because most drugs that get this far get approved, which makes the outcome easier to predict. I have been able to predict some turndowns in advance, and make money selling those stocks short. I've also been not only wrong but stunned from time to time by an FDA turndown -- that generally happens when there is no FDA Commissioner, and therefore no one to prod the bureaucrats to take a stand.
The first thing I look at is the clinical data. The 'problem" with Dendreon's results is that they missed their primary endpoint. But extending survival is the gold standard for a cancer drug approval, especially in the case of relapsed prostate cancer that has not responded to other therapies. That describes Provenge.
The second thing I look at is the filing process. Dendreon got FDA approval to do a "rolling" filing, with the agency reviewing data as it came in all during 2006. They also got Fast Track review. They used numerous consultants to help prepare the filing, most of whom are ex-FDA examiners. They have "role played" what the examiner might question or need, and then have been proactive in providing the answers.
The third thing I look at is the Advisory Committee process. Most of the time, the FDA will follow the recommendation of the advisory committee, and it seems likely the agency will ask an advisory committee to evaluate a drug that missed its primary endpoint of tumor shrinkage, but hit its more difficult secondary endpoint of extended survival. The advisory committee is composed of doctors and researchers who are not FDA employees.
I try to put myself in their position. Would they like to have this drug in their treatment options? Who can really be helped by this drug? Does it make economic sense compared to other treatment options? Are their meaningful risks? Are their parts of the method of action that might create unknown risks?
It comes down to a risk/reward recommendation based on individual patient situations. In the case of Provenge, it has seemed to me for two years that doctors desperately need something new for patents that otherwise have to be told they are terminal, with nothing left to do. There are a lot of men every year in this situation. (And when the drug is expanded to breast cancer, an equally large number of women.) There appear to be very low risks of side effects, and the mechanism of action is well understood.
Therefore, I think Provenge will get a recommendation for approval from the advisory committee, and the FDA will approve it.
Your second question is whether we should hold the stock after approval. That depends on when Dendreon announces their distribution partner deal. If they get approval first, we will want to own it for the lucrative deal announcement. There probably will be a sell-off after both approval and a deal are announced, but will we want to trade it? Maybe, or maybe with a portion of our holdings. But as soon as they have the cash, Dendreon will start label expansion studies for Provenge in breast cancer and head and neck cancer. These two clinical research programs were put on hold in 2005 to conserve cash, and can be taken off the shelf quickly. So Dendreon could attract a whole new set of buyers based on a profitable product and a technology that can spin off similar products against any solid tumor cancer. This is the main reason why I expect that we'll hold the stock through approval and beyond. The stock has started to move, but DNDN remains a Top Buy all the way up to $7 for my $14 target after Provenge is approved.
Not alot of sellers for this price so the buyers will move it up fast.
Someone wanted out and took out all the bids. But the bids firmed right back at .04. I have no plan of leaving at this low price. Too much value here. BTW, there was no Mike Murphy update this week on MOBL but he did send subscriber a presentation on his must have stocks and MOBL is 1 of 5 on the WiFi list.
Look like 70% of the volume was in the last 2 hours. Close at .053
Another 200K at ask
There were several buys at ask. 3 for 200 2 for 150K 1 for 120K and 3 for 100 K all within 29 Minutes. Looks like someone is buying, trying to get their shares without driving the price up too fast.
OT: Yes, I own it. I think Provenge (Provenge is for breast cancer and head and neck cancer) will get a recommendation for approval from the advisory committee, and the FDA will approve it but there is a 50/50 chance it may take a little longer than possibly May. At the current PPS the waiting is more than built in. The can also get bought out by big Pharma.
I own this an plan to hold through the sale and see what I end up getting. Should be much more than the current PPS.
Yes once Cornell is gone and the Kite spinoff is done we should be OK. Also Mike Murphy did some recent selling of stocks and he kept MOBL. Remember his Granny owns it.
Mike Murphy
MobilePro (MOBL) has been the subject of many emails, which is certainly understandable with the stock at five cents. I have long said, and told the CEO point-blank, that Cornell Capital was a millstone around the company's neck and needs to be replaced. MOBL's CEO has a more positive view of them than I do, in part because they gave him money to start building the company when no one else would. But he does realize that the rest of the world does not like their deal with Cornell Capital.
On February 27, MOBL filed an 8-K that said they agreed to defer the $250,000 weekly principal and interest payments on the $15 million in convertible bonds until July 8, 2007. At the same time, they reinstated the previously-deferred $125,000 weekly payments on the other $7 million in convertibles, and increased the payment to $250,000 through July 8. Then MOBL gave Cornell Capital 7.3 million shares of stock to pay the principal and interest due.
MOBL can make these payments in cash or stock. If paid in stock, it is now valued at the lower of either 17.4 cents a share or a 7% discount to the average of the two-lowest daily-volume-weighted average prices during the five days immediately following the scheduled payment date. What that means in the real world is that someone can short the stock, depress it for two days, and get a lot more shares. Cornell Capital is being investigated by the SEC for doing just that with another company. Also, the most recent amendment lowered the highest assumed price of the stock from 27.5 cents to 17.4 cents.
Obviously, at five cents a share, 7.3 million shares of stock pays $365,000 in interest and principal, or about a week and a half of what is due. Counting the 20.8 million shares issued in January and early February, MOBL has added 28.1 million shares in the last 8-plus weeks, or 3.3 million shares per week. At the end of December, they had 608.5 million shares outstanding, so the dilution is on the order of a half a percent per week, or 26% per year. That's unacceptable.
Management is looking for outside equity investors to fund the municipal wireless network build out, and may sell or joint venture other operations in order to take out Cornell Capital. These "death spiral" convertible financings are deadly, and although the CEO is a very experienced investment banker and deal guy, he has to scramble to save the company.
I think he will do it, but until we see a major step forward, I am moving MOBL to a hold. This is a real hold, as there is plenty of value here to take out Cornell Capital and continue to pursue the municipal Wi-Fi business that was the original reason why we bought the stock.