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AgFeed Industries - (FEED)
http://www.agfeedinc.com/
FEED - How did we miss this one?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?FEED
TXCO’s Current Profile
U.S.-Focused E&P Growth Company
2007 Oil & Gas Sales Up 36% from Prior Year
Oil: 2,670 bopd, +23%
Gas: 5.8 mmcfd, +92%
Diversified Exploitation, Development
And Exploration Inventory
1,000s of well locations
91.8 bcfe 1P reserves, YE07
Record 87 wells drilled in 2007
Established, Long-Term Growth Record
34.3 Million Common Shares, Fully Diluted
74% Institutionally Owned
TXCO - New April Presentation
http://www.txco.com/presentation.html
I really like what I see in this presentation. I can't see the major oil companies growing production and reserves exponentially. I can see a company like TXCO, with 1,000's of potential wells, 100,000's of acres, oil, tar sands, and natural gas reserves give us a MULTI-BAGGER.
What do you guys think????
Kipp
littlefish - G7
I can't believe anyone would chase banks/financials. There is no way to know anything about anything when you see the words "off balance sheet" and "complex financial instruments". AAA rating......you gotta be *^&^%^%$ kidding me. I have a feeling "stuff" has a lot more going for it than things that will explode/implode when investors figure out what's really "WORTH" something.
WE SHALL SEE!
Kipp
Powers Back Plan to Halt Financial Crux
Friday April 11, 7:27 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Top Economic Powers Endorse Plan to Try to Avert Financial Crises
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Finance officials from the world's top economic powers endorsed a plan Friday aimed at preventing another financial crisis like the credit and mortgage debacles that erupted in the United States and quickly sent tremors around the globe.
ADVERTISEMENT
"Rapid implementation" of the plan "will not only enhance the resilience of the global financial system for the longer term but should help to support confidence and improve the functioning of the markets," the G7 officials said in a joint statement.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hosted the Group of Seven discussions, where officials embraced a plan that would seek to increase the openness, or transparency, of financial markets and to sharpen regulators' response to urgent financial problems.
Besides the United States, the other members of the G7 are Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada. Friday's action preceded the weekend meetings of the 185-nation International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Risks to the United States and the global economy have intensified since finance officials from the Group of Seven countries last gathered here in October. Many economists now believe the United States has fallen into a recession and the odds of a worldwide downturn have risen sharply -- to one in four -- according to the IMF, a global financial firefighting institution.
Even as the financial officials talked about the best ways to battle future financial emergencies, Wall Street took another plunge. The Dow Jones tumbled more than 250 points.
"The turmoil in global financial markets remains challenging and more protracted than we had anticipated," the G7 officials said.
In the United States, where credit troubles sprang forth with a vengeance last August and quickly spread financial turmoil worldwide, the damage is sorely felt. Foreclosures have surged to record highs, job losses in the first three months of this year have neared the staggering quarter-million mark and financial companies have racked up billions of dollars in losses. The once mighty Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest investment bank in the United States, crashed, prompting a takeover by JP Morgan in a controversial deal backed by the Fed.
Worldwide financial losses could approach $1 trillion over two years, the IMF said earlier this week.
"Given the significant short-term downside risks, we are taking action," Paulson said of the G7's decision to adopt the plan. "There may be more bumps in the road," he warned.
The Financial Stability Forum, a group that includes central bankers and major financial regulators from around the world, developed the plan adopted by the G7. The forum is headed by Mario Draghi, chief of Italy's central bank, who presented his group's findings to the other G7 officials during their closed-door meeting.
The plan is designed to make financial markets less secretive and improve supervision, which in theory would help prevent a repeat of the current financial debacles.
It calls for strengthening oversight to make sure financial companies have sufficient capital, cash and risk-management practices to handle problems. It also would bolster transparency and the valuation of complex investment products, improve the operation of credit-rating agencies, strengthen authorities' responsiveness to risks and put in place arrangements to deal with stress in the financial system.
One recommendation is to have banks, securities firms and other financial institutions disclose their holdings of risky securities, such as those backed by subprime mortgages given to people with tarnished credit. Those subprime mortgages, which soured with the collapse of the U.S. housing market, were at the heart of the U.S. crisis.
Another involves having credit rating agencies distinguish the ratings they give for regular securities, such as corporate bonds, from those they assign to more complex investments. These agencies have been criticized for contributing to the problems by not accurately assigning risk to mortgage-backed investments.
Yet another recommendation would strengthen supervisors' guidance to banks for dealing with cash crunches and having banks run "stress tests" to see how they cope under different scenarios of financial strain.
The plan also calls for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, an international body of regulators, to make sure banks have enough capital to cover any potential losses.
The G7 officials were meeting at a time when the value of the U.S. dollar was hitting record lows against the euro and has fallen sharply against Japan's yen.
"There have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability," the G7 statement said, pledging to closely monitor the situation and "cooperate as appropriate."
Ongoing efforts by the U.S., backed by the G7, to prod China to let its currency rise in value also were discussed. China's undervalued currency has been blamed for contributing to the United States' swollen trade deficit and the loss of millions of factory jobs. The G7 officials welcomed progress that Beijing has made on the currency front but said the country needs to move more quickly to let its currency rise in value.
The G7 officials welcomed efforts by some central banks, including the Fed, to expand lending to squeezed financial institutions to help ease market turmoil.
Paulson said there was intense interest among the G7 officials about the state of the U.S. economy, the world's largest.
When Bernanke was talking about it, "I didn't see anybody dozing off," Paulson quipped. The Treasury secretary acknowledged that the first three months of this year was a "tough quarter" and said he expected the current April-to-June period to be "relatively tough" as well. Many private economists believe the economy contracted in the first quarter and could still be ebbing now.
Soaring oil prices also are complicating the global outlook.
In the United States, high energy prices are acting as a double-edged sword: they are causing people to spend less on other things, thus adding another drag on growth. And, they increase the risks of an inflation flare-up as other companies boost their prices in response. U.S. gasoline prices hit another record Friday of $3.365 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.
The G7 finance officials had a dinner scheduled for Friday night that was to include executives of some of the world's biggest financial companies. The idea: Look at the causes and consequences of the recent financial turmoil. Officials invited to those talks included top executives of Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley.
G7 Statement: Sharper Stance on Currencies
Friday April 11, 7:09 pm ET
(I think we are in for a wild ride!, Kipp)
The G7 Statement from the meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bankers were released on Friday and judging from the language, the attendees are worried about growth, the problems in the financial markets AND the fluctuations in currencies.
When the currency markets reopen on Sunday night, they may take this to mean that the concern of the G could compel COORDINATED ACTION!
The Finance Ministers and Central Bankers are pretty serious about tackling the problems plaguing the global economy and I wonder if they are planning a BIG announcement. When was the last time that the G7 invited 10 major banks to Washington to discuss ways to avert a financial crisis?
There are TWO new sentences in the paragraph referencing exchange rate fluctuations
APRIL STATEMENT:
“We reaffirm our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system. Since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate. We welcome China’s decision to increase the flexibility of its currency, but in view of its rising current account surplus and domestic inflation, we encourage accelerated appreciation of its
effective exchange rate.”
FEBRUARY STATEMENT:
“We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate. We welcome China’s decision to increase the flexibility of its currency, but in view of its rising current account surplus and domestic inflation, we encourage accelerated appreciation of its effective exchange rate.”
Here are some highlights from the statement:
*‘URGENT ACTION’ NEEDED ON OFF-BALANCE-SHEET ACCOUNTING
*CITIES CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY MOVES ON ECONOMIC STABILITY
*NATIONS ‘COMMITED’ TO TAKING ACTION AS APPROPRIATE
*CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY EFFORTS ARE ‘HELPING’
*NOTES ‘SHARP FLUCTUATIONS’ IN CURRENCIES SINCE FEBRUARY
*URGES BANKS TO RAISE CAPITAL AS NECESSARY
*URGES BANKS TO ‘FULLY AND PROMPTLY’ DISCLOSE RISK EXPLOSURE
*SETS 100-DAY PLAN TO STRENGHTEN FINANCIAL MARKETS
*GLOBAL FINANCIAL TURMOIL ‘REMAINS ENTRENCHED’
*U.S. HOUSING, OIL PRICES POSE THREATS TO GROWTH
*ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ‘WEAKENED,’ CITES ‘DOWNSIDE’ RISKS
*WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EXCHANGE RATES AS APPROPRIATE
*ENCOURAGES CHINA TO ACCELERATE APPRECIATION OF YUAN
*WELCOMES CHINA’S DECISION TO INCREASE YUAN FELXIBILITY
*SAYS WORLD ECONOMY FACING ‘DIFFICULT PERIOD’
Full G7 Statement:Statement of G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
Washington, DC – We met today amid ongoing challenges to the world economy and international financial system.
The global economy continues to face a difficult period. We remain positive about the long-term resilience of our economies, but near-term global economic prospects have weakened. While economic conditions differ in our countries, downside risks to the outlook persist in view of the ongoing weakness in U.S. residential housing markets, stressed global financial market conditions, the international impact of high oil and commodity prices, and consequent inflation pressures. The performance of emerging markets has been a bright spot, but these countries as well are not immune from global forces.
The turmoil in global financial markets remains challenging and more protracted than we had anticipated. In the context of a weaker economic outlook, financial markets confront the interrelated issues of: re-pricing of risk and significant de-leveraging; managing counterparty risks; accommodating balance sheet adjustments; raising capital; improving the liquidity and functioning of key markets. We welcome efforts by many financial institutions to improve disclosure of exposures to structured products and related risks, and raise significant new capital.
We reaffirmed our strong commitment to continue working closely together to restore sustained growth, maintain price stability, and ensure the smooth and orderly functioning of our financial systems. We welcome the coordination by major central banks to address liquidity pressures in funding markets and recognize the importance of their coordinated actions to address disruptions in global financial markets. In particular, the recent steps taken by some central banks to expand access to central bank lending facilities and expand the range of collateral that they will accept is providing liquidity to financial institutions and helping to support improved market functioning. In addition, we welcome other measures that have been taken including monetary and fiscal policy that aim to give support to underlying economic activity and ensure price stability. Each of us remains committed to taking action, individually and collectively as appropriate, consistent with our respective domestic circumstances.
We reaffirm our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system. Since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate. We welcome China’s decision to increase the flexibility of its currency, but in view of its rising current account surplus and domestic inflation, we encourage accelerated appreciation of its effective exchange rate.
Last fall we tasked the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) for a report identifying the underlying causes and weaknesses in the international financial system that contributed to the financial market turmoil. We thank Mario Draghi, the chairman of the Financial Stability Forum, and FSF members, for the report that sets out detailed recommendations to enhance market and institutional resilience. We, the G-7, strongly endorse the report and commit to implementing its recommendations. Rapid implementation of the FSF report will not only enhance the resilience of the global financial system for the longer term but should help to support confidence and improve the functioning of the markets.
The FSF report presents a specific and substantive set of recommendations across five major areas. We have identified the following recommendations among the immediate priorities for implementation within the next 100 days:
* Firms should fully and promptly disclose their risk exposures, write–downs, and fair value estimates for complex and illiquid instruments. We strongly encourage financial institutions to make robust risk disclosures in their upcoming mid-year reporting consistent with leading disclosure practices as set out in the FSF’s report.
* The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and other relevant standard setters should initiate urgent action to improve the accounting and disclosure standards for off-balance sheet entities and enhance its guidance on fair value accounting, particularly on valuing financial instruments in periods of stress.
* Firms should strengthen their risk management practices, supported by supervisors’ oversight, including rigorous stress testing. Firms also should strengthen their capital positions as needed.
* By July 2008, the Basel Committee should issue revised liquidity risk management guidelines and IOSCO should revise its code of conduct fundamentals for credit rating agencies.
We endorse the following FSF proposals for implementation by end-2008:
* Strengthening prudential oversight of capital, liquidity, and risk management: The Basel II capital framework needs timely implementation. The Basel Committee should raise capital requirements for complex structured credit instruments and off-balance sheet vehicles, require additional stress testing, and enhance their monitoring.
* Enhancing transparency and valuation: The Basel Committee should issue further guidance to enhance the supervisory assessment of banks’ valuation processes to strengthen disclosures for off-balance sheet entities, securitization exposures, and liquidity commitments.
* Changing the role and uses of credit ratings: Investors need to improve their due diligence in the use of ratings. Credit rating agencies should take effective action (consistent with IOSCO’s revised code of conduct) to address the potential for conflicts of interest in their activities, clearly differentiate the ratings for structured products, improve their disclosure of rating methodologies, and assess the quality of information provided by originators, arrangers, and issuers of structured products.
* Strengthening the authorities’ responsiveness to risk: Supervisors and central banks should further strengthen cooperation and exchange of information, including the assessment of financial stability risks. It is important that an “international college of supervisors” be established for each of the largest global financial institutions. Market authorities also should act cooperatively and swiftly to investigate and penalize fraud, market abuse, and manipulation.
* Implementing robust arrangements for dealing with stress in the financial system: Central banks should be able to supply liquidity effectively during financial system stress, and authorities should review and where necessary strengthen their arrangements for dealing with weak and failing banks, domestically and cross-border.
We ask the FSF and its working group to monitor actively the implementation of the report’s recommendations. It is important that member bodies of the FSF, including the Basel Committee, IOSCO, the IASB, and the Joint Forum, accelerate their timetables of work to conclude their efforts by end-2008 and that the recommendations of the FSF be fully and effectively implemented. We look forward to an update at the Osaka meeting in June and a comprehensive follow-up report by the FSF at our meeting in the fall. We welcome the strengthened cooperation between the FSF and IMF, which should enhance the early warning capabilities of key risks to financial stability.
We also welcome efforts by private-sector participants to develop proposals to contribute to a better functioning of the financial system.
The current financial market turmoil also has raised broad policy issues about the appropriate regulatory frameworks of our financial sectors. We have reaffirmed the importance of reviewing regulatory frameworks to consider whether changes are necessary to ensure that our financial systems are as efficient and stable as possible in the future.
We reaffirm the important role for the IMF in securing global financial stability. In this light we endorse the significant progress on IMF reform:
* We welcome the agreement on quota and voice reform in the IMF as an important step to recognize the greater global weight of dynamic economies, many of which are emerging markets, and increasing the voice of low income countries.
* We reiterate the importance we place on the IMF’s new framework for surveillance, including for exchange rates, and urge its firm and even-handed implementation.
* We welcome progress toward putting the IMF’s finances on a more sustainable footing, including a $100 million annual reduction in administrative expenses. Ongoing budget discipline will be required. We support new sources of income, including an endowment financed by a limited sale of IMF gold.
Taken together, these important reforms will boost the IMF’s legitimacy, effectiveness, and credibility.
Upholding open trade and investment regimes is critical to realizing global prosperity and fighting protectionism. We highlight the urgent need for a successful conclusion to the Doha Development Round. We also commend the OECD work on open investment and the IMF’s commitment to deliver a set of best practices for Sovereign Wealth Funds by the IMF Annual Meetings in October. The policy principles put forward by Abu Dhabi, Singapore, and the United States should be helpful inputs into these processes.
Fertilizer Bubble
This is a good read.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7448398
KCL.V Pump
http://www.themarkettraders.com/page/meridians-company-reports/potash-one-inc-tsxvkcl-the-perfect-storm
I maintain MOS or POT will buy them out.
Kipp
"Russia last month auctioned licenses for three deposits that went for $2.4 billion, 20 times the asking price."
Compare this price to the $95 million market cap of KCL.V!!!!
$750 Potash
India potash deal to boost China price - Uralkali
Wed Apr 2, 2008 (In U.S. dollars)
By Roberta Rampton
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, April 2 (Reuters) - The huge price jump for potash exports to India is a sign of things to come for China and other buyers for the rest of 2008, the chief executive of Russia's Uralkali (URKA.MM: Quote, Profile, Research), one of the world's biggest potash producers, said on Wednesday.
Vladislav Baumgertner told a BMO Capital Markets fertilizer conference that spot market prices quickly jumped to $750 per tonne from $625, effective June, after contracts set last week between India and Russian and Canadian producers.
"We are quite sure that this level can be achieved even earlier (than June), and the only crucial factor for selling at those new prices will be product availability," he said.
"A new price level definitely higher than $750 might be seen already in the third quarter," Baumgertner said.
Uralkali, which exports through Belarussian Potash Co, accounts for a third of the world's potash exports, and traditionally sets global contract prices with major importers.
China, the world's largest potash consumer, usually buys at a discount paid by importers in other markets. It has been out of the market in 2008 as it negotiates new annual contracts, first with BPC, then with other suppliers.
"In the short term, our goal is to eliminate the significant Chinese price discount relative to the spot markets and the Indian contract," Baumgertner said.
The head of Canadian potash producer Agrium Inc. (AGU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) told Reuters he expects China will end up paying the equivalent of India's contract price of $625 per tonne (landed), which is more than double last year's Indian contract price. [nN02401505]
Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed around the world because of tight supplies and as farmers rush to capture record-high grain prices by boosting crop yields.
Producers of potash, a major nutrient used on crops as diverse as bananas, palm oil and corn, have run at full capacity despite China's absence from the market in 2008.
"Imagine what will happen ... when China comes back," said Akiva Mozes, CEO of Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL.TA: Quote, Profile, Research), which accounts for 9 percent of world exports.
Canpotex, the export arm of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), Mosaic Co (MOS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Agrium, expects record volumes and prices in 2008 even without any sales to China, said Bill Doyle, CEO of Potash Corp.
"The world hasn't waited for China. The market continues to move," Doyle said.
Potash producers said they don't expect capacity expansion to overcome demand in the foreseeable future because deposits are rare and mines require huge capital costs."
"A potash greenfield mine is a massive undertaking, and despite the noise and attention being paid in Saskatchewan and Russia, still no significant greenfield projects have been announced anywhere in the world today," Doyle said.
Russia last month auctioned licenses for three deposits that went for $2.4 billion, 20 times the asking price.
Uralkali's bids were unsuccessful, but CEO Baumgertner said the winners paid too much and may have problems going further.
"Ultimately we believe that whatever happens, these sites will end up being developed by Uralkali, anyway," he said. (Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Editing by Peter Galloway)
cl001 - Please update the board on your copper stock ideas. It looks like copper is building cause to break out over $4 and on up through $5/lb. What are you liking here?
Thanks,
Kipp
dickmilde - My loan story
When gas prices went up after Katrina it opened my eyes as to how much it really was costing me to drive a 1995 full size 4x4 Dodge pick-up that got 12 mpg. I parked it on the driveway and went to the Jeep dealer and picked out a 2005 diesel Liberty that gets 26 mpg. I told them I would write a check for the total. The salesman said, "no, you don't want to pay for it, we'll pay you $1,000 to finance it." I told him to take me to the credit manager. I read the fine print and all I had to do was make 3 payments and then I could pay the loan balance off, in full, no penalty. I took the $1000, made the 3 payments, paid it off, and netted something like $700. I couldn't believe it. I later found out that the financing company paid the car salesman a commission on every deal that got financed.
Kipp
Potash One has Mosaic Surrounded!
Check out the map on the Ihub KCL board.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27986812
Kipp
Credit Crunch For Auto Loans
(The Auto Industry Will Be The Next Crisis, Kipp)
By David Cho and Nancy Trejos
The Washington Post
Reina Bolanos got a loan for her used Honda Odyssey in 2006 on what appeared to be favorable terms: $16,000 without a down payment.
Though the 8 percent rate was high, Bank of America offered to spread the loan over six years to keep the monthly payments down.
But the secretary from Silver Spring, Md., found that raising her young children cost more than she had expected, and she now worries about losing the car after missing her last two payments.
A growing number of Americans are buckling under the weight of debt as the troubles that started among homeowners with subprime mortgages last year spread to other consumers who rely on credit. Auto loan borrowers are having an especially hard time. The number of people more than 60 days late on their car payments has spiked to a 10-year high, according to Fitch Ratings.
Similar problems are brewing for credit card holders. Card balances written off as uncollectible by banks have jumped 24 percent, and late payments are up 16 percent from a year ago.
Like the mortgage market, consumer credit boomed in recent years as lending standards loosened.
Unorthodox auto loans lured consumers to buy cars they otherwise could not afford. Credit cards teased holders with introductory rates that soared after a few months. Now, more people are struggling to keep up with their bills under the strain of growing job losses and an economic downturn.
Consumers borrow more money today than at any point in history, and they are increasingly using credit to pay for nearly everything, from cars to groceries to electricity.
Consumer debt reached a record $2.55 trillion in December, nearly double from a decade ago, according to the Federal Reserve. Some economists say Americans are simply paying the price of their addiction to debt and are now more vulnerable than ever to credit downturns.
Behind the rising defaults is a tale of two Americas. Those with good credit will almost certainly see lower rates on cars and credit cards as the Fed continues to cut rates this year. But those with bad credit are facing rising rates and being forced to put more money down on cars. Some may not be able to get a credit card or auto loan as banks, spooked by the mortgage mess, have been reassessing the risk of making loans.
“It’s going to be much more difficult for those people who are already in credit distress than it is for those of us who are fortunate and have full-time jobs,” said Tony Cherin, a finance professor at San Diego State University.
But others worry that even those with good credit will share in the pain. The financial woes that started among homeowners with questionable credit histories — the “subprime” borrowers — have already sparked a downturn in the broader housing market.
“It’s not only people who are stuck with the subprime mortgages. It’s your average American,” said Todd Cook, president of Debt.com, which refers financially stressed people to firms that can help them. “It started with mortgages, but it’s spilling over. If it’s not their homes, it’s their credit cards. If it’s not their credit cards, it’s their autos.”
Car loan holders are not only missing their payments. They’re increasingly losing their vehicles.
The number of repossessions soared last year by 10 percent and is expected to rise by the same amount this year, said Thomas Webb, chief economist for Manheim, a global car auction firm.
Repo lots are getting full, he said, adding that the troubles mean “banks will be looking for more money down, which means most consumers will probably have to buy a lower-priced vehicle.”
That would have consequences for the auto industry. Lehman Brothers said in December that it expected U.S. auto sales to drop this year because many consumers will find it tougher to get auto loans. The bank said in its report that General Motors, Ford and Chrysler will feel the worst of the downturn because customers with questionable credit account for a higher percentage of their sales than those of European and Asian brands.
Delinquencies among borrowers with poor credit exceeded 4 percent last month for the first time since 1997. For borrowers with good credit, the rate hit 0.8 percent, also the highest in a decade.
Credit card companies are also seeing a rise in delinquencies, and while they are not near historically high levels, they are following a bad trend, industry analysts said.
According to Moody’s latest report, the number of people more than 30 days late on their credit card payments in November rose from 3.89 percent a year ago to 4.28 percent, the highest it has been since March 2005. It was the fifth consecutive month-to-month increase.
Part of the reason so many people are struggling with credit card debt now is that they can no longer tap home equity loans.
Now that housing prices have dropped, homeowners are less able to extract cash from their properties. Homeowners cashed out only $38 billion from refinances in the last quarter of 2007, the lowest in more than three years and nearly half as much as in the same period in 2006.
“People can’t use their home as a piggy bank,” said Travis Plunkett, legislative director for the Consumer Federation of America. “They can’t rely on home equity with regard to spending, so they’re increasing credit card spending because it’s the last place they can go if they want to have access to credit.”
March "Basic Points" Coxe's Recs:
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
1. This is a bear market on most of the world’s leading stock exchanges.
Clients should therefore be wary. Ursine conditions will remain until the
bank stocks stop underperforming the market and the Fed can go back to
being something resembling a staid central banker. As long as the forest
service bombers are frequently dumping water on flaming woodlands,
campers should be cautious.
2. JP Morgan’s stock market performance shows that within the bank
group, investors should emphasize those that have shown superior risk
management skills. Banks that were blowing billions in diverse ways before
the subprime problems reached global crisis levels should be avoided—or
sold short. Those which, like Bear Stearns, bragged about their prudent
risk management and then proceeded to announce egregious losses are
particularly risky in an environment that is likely to become increasingly
hostile. Flying on airlines that have above-average crash rates should be
an activity confined to reality TV contestants, not frequent flyers.
3. Gold reacted violently to its failure to hold $1,000. It will doubtless
take some time to consolidate, but it remains a recommended portfolio
overweight, both in the bullion ETF and in the companies whose
production and reserve profiles are of above-average quality.
4. The US is in a financial recession and may be in an economic recession.
Several Eurozone countries, such as Italy, are in similar straits. Although we
remain of the view that this is not likely to be a severe economic recession
in the US, it will look increasingly like a Depression on Wall Street. In
particular, members of the Credit Cartel are likely to find that the hinge
of history will impale some of them on a spike-filled swinging door.
5. Above-average snowfall and rain across much of the US have improved
the outlook for winter wheat and improved the water tables for the rest
of the grain complex. Reports from Russia, Ukraine and Australia offer
similar optimism. The risk of a full-scale global food crisis this year is
falling. Nevertheless, the only certitude comes from harvested crops on
hand, and they remain at critical levels, particularly for rice. The agricultural
stocks remain, with the golds, the most attractive commodity candidates
for performance this year.
6. US real bond yields are deeply negative across the curve. Not only does
this put a limit on how much more water the Fed can pour on financial
fires, but it should alert investors to the risks in bonds. In the early 1970s,
bond yields went modestly negative, but most asset allocators continued
to allocate mindlessly to bonds, which turned out to be one of financial
history’s horror stories. Emphasize cash or inflation-hedged bonds,
preferably in strong currencies.
7. While US real estate prices plummet, Canadian real estate prices continue
to climb. Apart from the special attractions of Saskatoon and some other
Prairie communities, we wonder whether such hot spots as Vancouver and
Toronto can stay torrid for much longer.
8. China is experiencing its worst inflation since Tiananmen Square times.
The regime is tightening steadily, and the stock market has joined the
rest of the world in bearish mode. In addition, Tibetans have suddenly
begun to demonstrate actively against Beijing rule, pricking consciences
around the world. We do not believe that these events will trigger a severe
slowdown of the Chinese economy that would turn total global economic
growth negative. That means the agricultural, iron ore and coal stocks—in
particular—remain very attractive.
Guy, I am suffering in AOS but figure selling for tax loss is not what I should do. Someone should think their reserves are worth more than the $.03/bbl they are currently going for.
Kipp
Crop Stats From Gartman Letter
Acknowledging China has been a much
more active buyer of U.S. soybeans
than expected, USDA made yet another
upward revision in its 2007/08 export
projection – this time by 20 million
bushels. This drops the ending stocks
projection down to a scant 140 million
bushels, which is only a 3-week
supply. A carryover that small makes
it even more imperative that more than
70 million acres go into soybean
production this year and that growing
conditions are generally favorable.
The wheat export prediction was raised
by a hefty 25 million bushels and USDA
bumped its wheat-for-food usage
estimate by 5 million bushels. These
changes pull the wheat carryover
estimate for the current year down to
only 242 million bushels. That figure
is more than 20 million bushels
smaller than the average pre-report
trade estimate.
The usage numbers for corn were not
revised, even though there’s some
evidence high prices are trimming
production plans in the
livestock/poultry industries and
perhaps ethanol. The upcoming
quarterly Grain Stocks Report will
provide a good picture of how much
corn disappeared during the second
quarter of the marketing year.
Interestingly, while some of the U.S.
stocks estimates shrank from a month
earlier, USDA raised its global ending
stocks figures for all of these
commodities. The Brazilian soybean
crop was raised from 60.5 to 61 mmt,
but many observers in South America
say thanks to good yields the crop
will be even larger than that.
The downward revision in the wheat
carryover estimate is not the only
bullish news at work in wheat futures
today. Turkey has issued a tender for
500,000 tons of wheat and at least
half of that amount is to be U.S. hard
red winter wheat. Japan continues to
be a consistent buyer of wheat,
regardless of price and Iraq is
expected to buy more wheat in the near
Yahoo Finance Changes?
Is it just my computer or did Yahoo Finance change everything around on the portfolio section again?
Kipp
"Rockey Mountain Coin" is the biggest coin shop in Denver. I have bought silver and gold coins there on several occasians. I went there over lunch hour and they were totally sold out of siler Eagles and Maple Leafs. They said the mint told them it would be 90 days before any new Eagles would be available. I hear this is going on nation wide. Have any of you any information on coin availability?
Kipp
EXN.V I had a dream last night that they found the "Mother Lode". When they pulled the core samples from the drill and split them in half to send for assay they glistened with silver......................then my wife elbowed me and woke me up because I was snoring so loud! Well at least the price is way up at the moment...........................................................................................................I can dream!!!!!
Kipp
Potash One completes 3-D seismic on Legacy
Potash One Inc (C:KCL)
Shares Issued 32,495,401
Last Close 3/20/2008 $3.50
Monday March 24 2008 - News Release
Mr. Paul Matysek reports
POTASH ONE 3-D SEISMIC PROGRAM FIELD PROGRAM COMPLETED
Potash One Inc. has had steady progress on the company's 3-D seismic program on its 97,400-acre Legacy potash project in Southern Saskatchewan. The 3-D seismic program was run over the original Imperial Findlater potash solution-mining pilot test site located in the northwest corner of the permit area. The objective of the program is to confirm the continuity of the potash-bearing evaporite beds as presented in the NI-43-101-compliant technical report and identify sites for placement of confirmatory surface drill holes. The 3-D program will help identify contiguous areas of potash mineralization that have not been affected by any underground salt dissolution and collapse structures or contact with subsurface aquifers.
The acquisition program consists of an area of some 26 square kilometres of data. Recording of data was completed on Feb. 25, 2008. The data processing began on March 12, 2008. It is anticipated that the interpretation will be completed by April 30, 2008.
Paul F. Matysek, president and chief executive officer of Potash One, commented: "We are pleased with the progress of our 3-D program, which is one of the key components of our exploration and development program. The progress in this aspect along with our recently announced environmental assessment program will help us expedite further development of the Legacy project."
Boyd Petrosearch of Calgary, Alta., is undertaking the seismic program on behalf of Potash One. Boyd is considered one of the premier seismic acquisition and interpretation company's in the potash industry.
The technical content in this news release has been read and approved by Stephen P. Halabura, principal geologist and owner of North Rim Exploration, a professional geologist licensed in Saskatchewan and a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101
manny, POE sure took a long time to get started this morning. It made me think they were haulted.
Thanks,
Kipp
POE.V Zero Volume?? Haulted??
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Rises in Premarket As RBC Upgrades on Higher Potash Prices
NEW YORK (AP) -- An RBC Capital Markets analyst upgraded shares of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. on Monday, expecting the fertilizer company to gain from higher prices for potash.
Both Belarusian Potash Co., a Belarus-based potash supplier, and Indian Potash Ltd. recently agreed to a contract potash price of $625 per metric ton -- up sharply from a previous price of $270 per ton. Pricing for the fertilizer has been supported by factors that include rising demand for ethanol, made from corn.
Analyst Fai Lee upgraded the stock to "Top Pick" from "Outperform," with a price target raised to $250 from $195. That implies upside of around 73.3 percent from Thursday's $144.26 closing price.
Lee believes the recent Indian contract will set the tone for negotiations with other countries, like China.
"We believe it is only a matter of time before Chinese potash prices approach global levels," Lee wrote in a client note.
CIBC World Markets analyst Jacob Bout suspects the recent contract will cause a contract with China to settle sooner than expected and at a higher-than-expected price.
"The Indian contract settling before the Chinese negotiations, unprecedented historically, is an indication of the current tight supply and demand fundamentals for potash," Bout wrote in a client note.
Bout's new price target is $200, up from $155. He also raised his rating to "Sector Outperform" from "Sector Perform."
In premarket trading, shares advanced $4.14, or 2.9 percent, to $148.40.
Don Coxe call always good to listen to.
I am sticking with my "stuff"!
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp
Look at the close on MFN!
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?MFN
researcher59 - Moody's
I wouldn't trust a single thing coming from Moody's.
Check this out:
Credit ratings agency Moody's Investors Service on Monday put Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. on review for possible upgrade after the investment bank struck an emergency deal to sell itself at a massive discount.
Moody's said it was reviewing the "Baa1" long-term rating of Bear, just three days after downgrading it two notches from "A2." Both ratings are investment grade.
Bear Stearns agreed Sunday to a sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co. at the equivalent of $2 per share. The stock closed at $30 on Friday and Bear Stearns said last week its book value per share was in the mid-$80s range.
Moody's also affirmed a "Aa2" senior rating on JPMorgan Chase.
JPM only offering $2.00/shr for Bear Stearns
2 BUCKS!
JPMorgan says it is would buy ailing Bear Stearns for $2 a share
By JOE BEL BRUNO and MADLEN READ
The Associated Press
AP PhotoBear Stearns's headquarters overlooks the flag for neighboring JP Morgan Chase headquarters in New York on Friday, March 14, 2008. The Federal Reserve invoked a rarely used Depression-era procedure Friday to bolster troubled Bear Stearns Cos. and said it will provide even more help to combat a serious credit crisis. JPMorgan Chase is providing an undisclosed amount of secured funding to Bear for 28 days, backstopped by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
NEW YORK --JPMorgan Chase says it will acquire rival Bear Stearns for $2 a share in a move aimed at averting spreading panic in the financial markets over tightening credit.
JP Morgan says the all-stock deal has received the required approvals from the federal government and the Federal Reserve.
The Fed will provide special financing to JPMorgan Chase in connection with the deal. The central bank has agreed to fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bloomberg just said FED cut .25%! On a Sunday afternoon before the scheduled meeting on Tuesday. What the???
Look at 1 year Dollar Chart!
Where does the slide stop. What will replace the dollar as global currency?
cl001 - I hope TGB is a sign that our Jr's are going to start moving. I like you get a little frustrated watching the PM's price move and nothing happens with most of our Jr's. I am confident we have some monster gains ahead of us.
Thanks for sharing your stock ideas!
Kipp
EXM.V Options Related Sell-off???
I remember the 19th being the last day for options exchange. Anyone think I should buy this soon at these prices or should I think about next week?
Kipp
Oil majors hit by slump in Gulf findings
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53117fb6-ee43-11dc-a5c1-0000779fd2ac.html
Oil majors hit by slump in Gulf findings
By Sheila McNulty in Houston
Published: March 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: March 10 2008 02:00
Disappointing oil exploration results in the Gulf of Mexico are upsetting the hopes of US oil majors for big new findings in an area free from interference by foreign, state-owned oil companies.
Wood MacKenzie, the energy consultancy, said in a new report that findings in the Gulf in 2007 were the lowest of the past decade. With a total of 553m barrels of oil equivalent, these new reserves were less than half of what was found in 2006.
The deep-water Gulf of Mexico is one of the few areas to which the majors have access without the fear of intervention by state-owned oil companies.
National oil companies now control more than 80 per cent of the world's oil reserves and have used new-found wealth and skills developed under the majors to bar them from many new exploration sites.
"The Gulf of Mexico represents what many companies believed was the safest, most prospective area open to them in the world,'' said Robin West, chairman of PFC Energy, the consultancy. Disappointing exploration results put more pressure on the companies' portfolios, he said.
According to the report, exploration in the Gulf deep-water region is becoming more costly. The average quantity discovered per exploration well decreased in 2007 to 16m barrels of oil equivalent - well below the 10-year average for the region of 26m barrels of oil equivalent per exploration well.
It took billions of dollars to develop reserves in the deep water, said Tim Sampson, the American Petroleum Institute's senior adviser of Upstream. "So, to make a project economically viable, you have to have an extremely good find.''
Rex Tillerson, chairman and chief executive of ExxonMobil, the world's biggest private oil company, said: "When you are dealing in that kind of water depth, you need to try to get about a billion or so (barrels) under a facility to make it work."
With a couple of notable exceptions, he said, most of the industry's discoveries had been 100m barrels - some less, some slightly more. BP projects its Thunder Horse project in the Gulf of Mexico will yield 1bn barrels, but it has been beset with a host of problems delaying production.
Chevron, the largest leaseholder in the Gulf, claimed a number of "significant'' finds, with its Tahiti project containing estimated recoverable reserves of 400m to 500m oil-equivalent barrels, among its biggest discoveries.
Devon boasted of four significant discoveries since 2002, each estimated to contain 300m to more than 500m barrels of oil equivalent. All three companies said they would continue to work in the Gulf deep water.
BP projects its Thunder Horse project in the Gulf of Mexico will yield 1bn barrels, but it has been beset with production problems.
Oil majors hit by slump in Gulf findings
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53117fb6-ee43-11dc-a5c1-0000779fd2ac.html
Oil majors hit by slump in Gulf findings
By Sheila McNulty in Houston
Published: March 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: March 10 2008 02:00
Disappointing oil exploration results in the Gulf of Mexico are upsetting the hopes of US oil majors for big new findings in an area free from interference by foreign, state-owned oil companies.
Wood MacKenzie, the energy consultancy, said in a new report that findings in the Gulf in 2007 were the lowest of the past decade. With a total of 553m barrels of oil equivalent, these new reserves were less than half of what was found in 2006.
The deep-water Gulf of Mexico is one of the few areas to which the majors have access without the fear of intervention by state-owned oil companies.
National oil companies now control more than 80 per cent of the world's oil reserves and have used new-found wealth and skills developed under the majors to bar them from many new exploration sites.
"The Gulf of Mexico represents what many companies believed was the safest, most prospective area open to them in the world,'' said Robin West, chairman of PFC Energy, the consultancy. Disappointing exploration results put more pressure on the companies' portfolios, he said.
According to the report, exploration in the Gulf deep-water region is becoming more costly. The average quantity discovered per exploration well decreased in 2007 to 16m barrels of oil equivalent - well below the 10-year average for the region of 26m barrels of oil equivalent per exploration well.
It took billions of dollars to develop reserves in the deep water, said Tim Sampson, the American Petroleum Institute's senior adviser of Upstream. "So, to make a project economically viable, you have to have an extremely good find.''
Rex Tillerson, chairman and chief executive of ExxonMobil, the world's biggest private oil company, said: "When you are dealing in that kind of water depth, you need to try to get about a billion or so (barrels) under a facility to make it work."
With a couple of notable exceptions, he said, most of the industry's discoveries had been 100m barrels - some less, some slightly more. BP projects its Thunder Horse project in the Gulf of Mexico will yield 1bn barrels, but it has been beset with a host of problems delaying production.
Chevron, the largest leaseholder in the Gulf, claimed a number of "significant'' finds, with its Tahiti project containing estimated recoverable reserves of 400m to 500m oil-equivalent barrels, among its biggest discoveries.
Devon boasted of four significant discoveries since 2002, each estimated to contain 300m to more than 500m barrels of oil equivalent. All three companies said they would continue to work in the Gulf deep water.
BP projects its Thunder Horse project in the Gulf of Mexico will yield 1bn barrels, but it has been beset with production problems.
MINING PEOPLE IN THE NEWS - Athabasca Potash, Northern Freegold, Skye Resources, Slam Exploration, True North Gems and Western Warrior
(There are some names here that we all know from past successus,Kipp)
Athabasca Potash Inc
Northern Freegold Resources Ltd
Skye Resources Inc
Slam Exploration Ltd
True North Gems Inc
Western Warrior Resources Inc
Articles
Personnel and Human Resources
Bradley V.A. Fettis has joined the team at ATHABASCA POTASH of Saskatoon, Sask., as its chief mine development engineer. He is a veteran of several potash operations in the province.
Vancouver's NORTHERN FREEGOLD RESOURCES has named Susan P. Craig its new president. Bill Harris, who relinquished the role, becomes the COO and retains his duties as CEO.
Colin K. Benner is now CEO and vice-chair of Vancouver-based SKYE RESOURCES. His 40-year career includes senior executive positions at Lundin Mining, Breakwater Resources and EuroZinc Mining. Benner replaces Ian Austin who has stepped down.
SLAM EXPLORATION of Miramichi, N.B., welcomed E.M. "Ted" Yates to its board of directors on March 3. His 40 years of experience as a metallurgical engineer at Cominco will be a boon to the company's work to take the Nash Creek zinc-lead-silver deposit to production.
Robert Boyd is the new chairman of Vancouver's TRUE NORTH GEMS. As part of its reorganization, the company gave the roles of president and CEO to Andrew Lee Smith.
WESTERN WARRIOR RESOURCES of Calgary says Paul Nagerl is its new president and CEO. Formerly, Nagerl was VP exploration at Blackstone Ventures. Western Warrior also named Grant Hall its new VP corporate development.
HF.TO - $.34 - Hanfeng Announces Record Financial Results for 2007
Thursday March 6, 5:12 pm ET
-Annual sales grow by 136% to $141 million-
-EPS doubles to $0.34 per share-
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - March 6, 2008) - Hanfeng Evergreen Inc. ("Hanfeng" or the "Company") (TSX:HF - News) today reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2007. All amounts are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.
For the year ended December 31, 2007, Hanfeng reported significant growth in its revenues and net income from continuing operations. Revenue increased by $81.4 million to $141.3 million as the Company successfully grew its fertilizer production throughout the year. Net income for the year ended December 31, 2007 was $19.4 million versus net income of $7.9 million in the same period in 2006. Earnings per share ("EPS") for 2007 were $0.34, an increase of $0.17 compared to 2006. Net Income and EPS for 2006 include Hanfeng's nursery and landscaping business (discontinued operations), which was sold in 2006. Excluding discontinued operations, net income and EPS in 2006 was $7 million and $0.15 respectively.
"This was a year of great achievement for Hanfeng," stated Xinduo Yu, Hanfeng's CEO and President. "In every facet of our business, we met or exceeded our goals. Our design capacity grew by 86 percent, production by 130 percent and our sales by 136 percent while profitability doubled. More importantly, we saw demand continue to increase as we sold virtually everything we produced in 2007, even in the wake of price increases."
As at December 31, 2007, Hanfeng reported cash and cash equivalent of $28.7 million and working capital of $91 million versus $2.1 million and $10.9 million respectively in 2006. Total assets grew by almost $100 million to $208 million as the Company successfully added four new plants to its production base and significantly increased its raw material inventory and prepaid inventory to help mitigate the effects of rising materials prices. Total debt increased from $23 million in 2006 to $33 million in 2007.
Business Highlights:
- On April 4, 2007, Hanfeng announced it had entered into separate agreements with Agrium Advanced Technologies ("Agrium"), a business segment of Agrium Inc., and PetroChina Ningxia Petrochemical Company ("PetroChina"), a division of PetroChina Petrochemical Company, and issued 11,959,000 shares to Agrium and 1,000,000 shares to PetroChina, both at $6.22 per share for total proceeds of $80.6 million.
- In June 2007, Hanfeng began commercial operations at the 200,000 tonnes per annum Prill Tower NPK plant at its Heilongjiang facility. The plant utilizes Hanfeng's own proprietary Urea Formaldehyde / Methylene Urea ("UF/MU") technology to produce NPK products which can be customized using various nitrogen sources to fit customer requirements. In October 2007, Hanfeng completed construction and began commissioning of the first 50,000 tonnes of a sulfur coated compound fertilizer plant at the Heilongjiang facility. The Company exited 2007 with 650,000 tonnes of annual design capacity, and added another 50,000 tonnes of capacity at Heilongjiang with the completion of its specialty coating plant in February 2008. In total, Hanfeng has successfully added 350,000 tonnes of annual design capacity since December 31, 2006, a 100 percent increase. All expansion projects were completed on schedule and on budget.
- In September 2007, China's National Products Standard Committee approved Hanfeng's SCU product specifications to be the National Chemical Industry Standards. This has significantly elevated Hanfeng's brand image and industry status in the country.
- Hanfeng completed two joint venture agreements in China during the second half of 2007. The first was signed in September with Shanxi Fengxi Fertilizer Group Ltd. in the Shanxi province and the second was signed in November with Anhui Linquan Industry Chemical Co., Ltd. in the Anhui province. Both facilities will initially produce 50,000 tonnes per annum of sulfur coated urea (SCU) and are expected to be in commercial operations in the later part of 2008 and early 2009. The facilities can be expanded to accommodate market demand in the region. In addition to expanding Hanfeng's production and geographic presence, the joint venture agreements also guarantee Hanfeng a secure supply of low cost urea. The Company is currently in discussions with several other urea producers in China.
- In January 2008, the results of extensive field trials using Hanfeng's SCU were announced. The field trials were carried out in 20 provinces over a two-year period by Dr. Yuan Longping, who is internationally recognized as a leader in the development of hybrid rice. The field trials demonstrated that SCU, used in numerous regions, in varying soil conditions, and with various types of hybrid rice, generated higher crop yields while using less nitrogen. In many cases, the effectiveness of the fertilizer was increased by more than 50 percent and the nitrogen requirement reduced by as much as 30 percent. Moreover, the field trials proved that SCU eliminated the need for multiple fertilizations, reduced the incidence of disease, and enhanced the quality of the rice crop.
"In 2007, we successfully established a growing, profitable production base, further strengthened our brand and our reputation in the industry, and through the field trials, introduced our products into numerous new regional markets in China. We expect that the demand created in these new regions will accelerate our growth utilizing joint ventures, as well as create new opportunities to expand our production and distribution base," concluded Mr. Yu.
Balance Sheet Highlights
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(In thousand except for ratios) December 31, 2007 December 31, 2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current ratio 3.8 : 1 1.6 :1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash 28,690 2,104
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Working capital 91,089 10,936
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total assets 207,641 108,072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total debt 32,793 22,943
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loans payable (current portion) 26,383 13,492
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total equity 174,848 85,129
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Debt / Equity 19% 27%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary 2007 Financial Results
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the 3 For the 12
month period month period
ended December 31 ended December 31
----------------------------------------------
(in thousands in $Cdn) 2007 2006 change 2007 2006(1) change
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sales 54,620 24,303 125% 141,308 59,849 136%
Gross profit 10,545 5,102 107% 26,852 12,145 121%
Net earnings before
discontinued operation 6,793 3,439 98% 19,435 7,072 175%
Net earnings of
discontinued operation - 120 - - 829 -
Net earnings 6,793 3,559 91% 19,435 7,901 146%
From continuing operations:
Basic EPS 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.34 0.15 0.19
Dilutive EPS 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.34 0.15 0.19
After discontinued operation:
Basic EPS 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.34 0.17 0.17
Dilutive EPS 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.34 0.17 0.17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) 2006 results include discontinued operations
Sales for the fourth quarter and for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, increased by 125 percent and 136 percent respectively, compared to the same periods in the prior year. These significant increases are due to increased production volumes from the two new plants that commenced operations in the first and third quarter of 2007, as well as continuous increase in production from the new plants added in 2006. In general, it takes approximately 2 to 4 quarters for a new plant to ramp up to its normal capacity level. Therefore, while Hanfeng's annual designed capacity reached 650,000 tonnes by the end of 2007, the total tonnage produced in 2007 and sold in the year was approximately 390,000 tonnes (169,000 tonnes in 2006), due to the required ramp-up period.
EBITDA from continuing operations increased significantly for both the fourth quarter (by 68 percent) and the year (by 124 percent) ended December 31, 2007, compared with the same periods in the prior year. The increased EDITDA relates to the higher production and sales volumes generated by the additional plant capacity brought on line in 2007. As a percentage of sales, EBITDA decreased from 18.3 percent to 13.7 percent in the fourth quarter and from 16.3 percent to 15.4 percent in 2007, compared with the same periods last year. The percentage decrease was primarily due to the raw material cost increase and some unusually high selling expenses incurred in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Gross profit for the fourth quarter increased accordingly by $5.4 million (or 107 percent) and by $14.7 million (or 121 percent) for the year, compared to the same periods from the prior year. Gross profit as a percentage of sales decreased from 21.0 percent to 19.3 percent in the fourth quarter, and from 20.3 percent to 19.0 percent for the year, compared with the same periods of last year. The percentage decrease was primarily due to rising raw material cost in 2007. Hanfeng was successful in increasing its selling price in the fourth quarter in order to partially offset the effects of the increased raw material costs. Hanfeng's fourth quarter average selling price in Chinese currency rose 7.3 percent from the level in the third quarter.
Operating expenses increased from $4.6 million in 2006 to $8.3 million in 2007 primarily due to the additional production capacity added during the year.
SG&A expenses increased overall in 2007 due to several factors including higher sales volumes, higher administrative costs associated with its business growth and a one-time shipping expense for an expedited delivery in late summer 2007. SG&A as a percentage of sales decreased year-over-year from 4.9 percent to 4.5 percent due to the higher sales volumes and offset by the aforementioned costs and one-time expenses. SG&A percentage increased from 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 6.4 percent in 2007, because the one time cost was recorded during the fourth quarter of 2007.
Income tax rate for Hanfeng is nil for 2007. The National People's Congress in China approved tax reforms effective on January 1, 2008. Under the new tax regime, the five-year tax incentive available to only foreign entities in China has been removed. However a five-year transition period has been introduced. Hanfeng received approvals from the tax authorities specifying the transition rules for Heilongjiang and Jiangsu entities, which are two main production facilities in China. The most recent approval also confirms Hanfeng's Hi-Tech status for both locations. Based on the future production capacity allocation, Hanfeng's income tax rates in China are estimated by management be 1 percent for 2008, 2 percent for 2009, 13 percent for 2010, 2011 and 2012, and 15 percent thereafter.
Hanfeng's audited financial statements and MD&A will be available on www.sedar.com.
Hanfeng Evergreen Inc. will host a conference call to discuss its fiscal 2007 financial results. Ms. Madeline Yu, CFO and Mr. Robert Beutel, Chairman of the Board, will host the call.
Date: Friday, March 7, 2008
Time: 10:00 am, Eastern Time
Dial in Number: 416-641-6118 or 1-866-223-7781
Taped Replay: 416-695-5800 or 1-800-408-3053
(available for 14 days)
Taped Replay Pass Code: 3254185
Live Webcast Link:
http://events.onlinebroadcasting.com/hanfeng/030708/index.php
About Hanfeng Evergreen Inc.
Hanfeng is a leading provider of slow and controlled release fertilizers to blenders, the agriculture market and the urban greening market. Hanfeng was the first to introduce the concept of slow and controlled release fertilizers into China's agriculture market with its establishment of the first commercial scale slow-release fertilizer production in China. All production facilities are located in prime agricultural regions of China. The Company is headquartered in Toronto, Ontario and its shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. For more information, please visit: www.hanfengevergreen.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These forward-looking statements entail various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in these forward-looking statements. Risks and uncertainties about Hanfeng's business are more fully discussed in the Company's disclosure materials, including its annual information form and MD&A, filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada.
Contact:
Madeline Haiying Yu, CA
Hanfeng Evergreen Inc.
Chief Financial Officer
(416) 368-8588
Email: info@hanfengevergreen.com
Website: www.hanfengevergreen.com
Kevin O'Connor
Genoa Management Ltd.
Investor Relations
(416) 962-3300
Email: koconnor@genoa.ca
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Hanfeng Evergreen Inc.
China's inflation likely hit 8.3 percent in February: bank
2 days ago
BEIJING (AFP) — China's inflation likely hit a new 11-year high of 8.3 percent last month on the back of rising food prices, state media reported Sunday, triggering speculation of a modest hike in interest rates.
Severe winter weather which crippled transport networks, and the Lunar New Year festival which traditionally brings a surge in demand, were also seen as helping drive up the price of food and other basic commodities.
The estimate of 8.3 percent was given by the Bank of China, the country's second largest lender, and reported by the state news agency Xinhua.
It came ahead of Tuesday's publication of official inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics, which is used by authorities to decide whether to tighten monetary policy.
The consumer price index, or CPI, had already risen 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the highest since September 1996.
"Everybody knows it's going to be more than eight percent in February. Logically, February's CPI must be higher than January's," said Chen Xingdong, Beijing-based chief economist with BNP Paribas Asia.
In its report, the Bank of China said February's increase in the consumer price index was fuelled mainly by food, which rose more than 22 percent from a year earlier, according to Xinhua.
"Making things worse... when people expect prices to keep rising, they will spend more to avoid those future rises, which in turn will push prices up," it reported, quoting the bank.
The effect of the freezing weather across much of China was first felt in January, but the main impact was in February, BNP Paribas Asia's Chen argued.
The Lunar New Year, the biggest consumption fest of the Chinese calendar, also came in February, adding upward pressure on the price of everything from firecrackers to plane tickets.
China's inflation is seen as triggered mainly by the relative scarcity of basic products, such as pork and other staple food items.
According to observers, this leaves economic policy-makers with a dilemma when opting for the right response, even though the central bank governor said last week there was "definitely room" for more interest rate hikes.
If he does raise interest rates -- the classic response to rising inflation -- he could deter producers of these basic commodities, so making the problem worse.
Another problem is that since early 2007 China has hiked its interest rates six times, while the US Federal Reserve has steadily lowered them.
As a result, the spread between the two has widened dramatically, with the benchmark US federal funds rate now at 3.00 percent compared with 7.47 percent for China's one-year lending rate.
Chinese policymakers fear that a big gap between Chinese and US rates will attract more speculative funds into the economy, fuelling liquidity that is already considered too high.
"If the government wants to hike the rate, it won't be by too much. It will mainly be a gesture, a symbolic move," said Zhang Taowei, an economist from Tsinghua University.
China's economy, the fourth largest in the world, expanded by 11.4 percent in 2007, its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth.
While inflation was kept in check in the first four years of that phase of expansion, one of the trends in 2007 has been price hikes reaching levels not seen for a decade.
The Chinese government's paramount concern over inflation is seen as partly because its Nationalist predecessor regime was defeated after hyper-inflation contributed to an erosion of its legitimacy.
"The current price hikes and increasing inflationary pressures are the biggest concern of the people," Premier Wen Jiabao told 3,000 lawmakers at the start of parliament's annual full session last week.
"We have to take into consideration the ability of individuals, enterprises and all sectors of society to tolerate price increases and try our best to avoid sharp price increases," Wen said.