$750 Potash
India potash deal to boost China price - Uralkali
Wed Apr 2, 2008 (In U.S. dollars)
By Roberta Rampton
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, April 2 (Reuters) - The huge price jump for potash exports to India is a sign of things to come for China and other buyers for the rest of 2008, the chief executive of Russia's Uralkali (URKA.MM: Quote, Profile, Research), one of the world's biggest potash producers, said on Wednesday.
Vladislav Baumgertner told a BMO Capital Markets fertilizer conference that spot market prices quickly jumped to $750 per tonne from $625, effective June, after contracts set last week between India and Russian and Canadian producers.
"We are quite sure that this level can be achieved even earlier (than June), and the only crucial factor for selling at those new prices will be product availability," he said.
"A new price level definitely higher than $750 might be seen already in the third quarter," Baumgertner said.
Uralkali, which exports through Belarussian Potash Co, accounts for a third of the world's potash exports, and traditionally sets global contract prices with major importers.
China, the world's largest potash consumer, usually buys at a discount paid by importers in other markets. It has been out of the market in 2008 as it negotiates new annual contracts, first with BPC, then with other suppliers.
"In the short term, our goal is to eliminate the significant Chinese price discount relative to the spot markets and the Indian contract," Baumgertner said.
The head of Canadian potash producer Agrium Inc. (AGU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) told Reuters he expects China will end up paying the equivalent of India's contract price of $625 per tonne (landed), which is more than double last year's Indian contract price. [nN02401505]
Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed around the world because of tight supplies and as farmers rush to capture record-high grain prices by boosting crop yields.
Producers of potash, a major nutrient used on crops as diverse as bananas, palm oil and corn, have run at full capacity despite China's absence from the market in 2008.
"Imagine what will happen ... when China comes back," said Akiva Mozes, CEO of Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL.TA: Quote, Profile, Research), which accounts for 9 percent of world exports.
Canpotex, the export arm of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), Mosaic Co (MOS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Agrium, expects record volumes and prices in 2008 even without any sales to China, said Bill Doyle, CEO of Potash Corp.
"The world hasn't waited for China. The market continues to move," Doyle said.
Potash producers said they don't expect capacity expansion to overcome demand in the foreseeable future because deposits are rare and mines require huge capital costs."
"A potash greenfield mine is a massive undertaking, and despite the noise and attention being paid in Saskatchewan and Russia, still no significant greenfield projects have been announced anywhere in the world today," Doyle said.
Russia last month auctioned licenses for three deposits that went for $2.4 billion, 20 times the asking price.
Uralkali's bids were unsuccessful, but CEO Baumgertner said the winners paid too much and may have problems going further.
"Ultimately we believe that whatever happens, these sites will end up being developed by Uralkali, anyway," he said. (Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Editing by Peter Galloway)
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