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Like ACAD did also with a LP financing, Missling now has financing for Phase 3 in his back pocket (the "N" number could be as small as 300) and can negotiate with BP in strength as is very important...
The conclusion to this more detailed post is as follows:
The scare term "Toxic financing" refers to a situation when, the funding source can both dilute massively while usually also manipulating share price downward, is not what exists with the AVXL financing. Lincoln has no control to dilute behond that of a simple straight share issue, one time PP here, and likewise no control to manipulate share price by shorting.. Therefore the term Toxic has no valid place here, and is very misleading to investors... It is not surprising that desperate shorters , or those negative on AVXL, are grasping for "untruths" such as this and trying to sensationalize with such scare terms, since it is difficult to find valid negative attributes to AVXL , and also since these scare tactics terms or both easy to use and have an effect on investors who have not done extensive DD......
Why the talk of financing being toxic is false and misleading..
remember "we are protected by terms"... "Missling is smart":
Ok, firstly contract terms are that Lincoln can not short AVXL stock. Another important aspect is that Lincoln will not know when , or even if (since AVXL is still not committed to using the Lincoln share sales and can still pursue partnerships and other financing sources) , Anavex will request a sale of shares, under the contract . Since Lincoln will have no knowledge of what Anavex will request, and plus the fact they are not allowed to short AVXL by contract, Lincoln has no reason (or ability) that would benefit them, to manipulate the share price of AVXL, so that they can "buy more shares for given amount" .... This gets to the reasoning why using the scare term "Toxic" is misleading .... because the term has typically been used in financing with warrants where the company has no control over the issuance of shares, or shorting by subject company, and so the company can "at will" short to lower the price, and then use this lower price so that the warrants convert into more shares, then convert some of the shares at the higher ratio, sell those at market, short more as needed to push down price even more and then do the cycle all over again (almost resulting in an unlimited amounts of shares to be issued potentially) ... google "toxic death spiral financing" and you will get a lot of info if you want more....but the point is the term toxic is not accurate at all in the AVXL financing (in fact very misleading surprise surprise). In the AVXL case Lincoln will simply get a 10% discounted share price, based on market value, and will have to pay for the shares, when and if AVXL requests ---- no warrants and zero control by Lincoln in this process, and no shorting allowed. This is why the term "Toxic" is here is very misleading. Also add on that if Nov. 7 AVXL conference is positive, resulting in high partner demand , and high share demand, and AVXL's very selective use of the Lincoln financing (Missling has an MBA with extensive M&A experience) will allow share price to float to fair value...
Financing summary
-we get money
-the pricing is very good
-we get very good control
-we are protected by terms
-we used this same source before without problems
-source already understands AVXL business
You do not have to be a financial wizard to know this is real good.......
expediter has obviously not done proper DD ... cut and paste posting IMO..
What you say about the financing is factually wrong ... I would call that exposed...
good info ....yes its seems crooked shorts have found a new "yes boy" writer...and are keeping him busy...He went for the money...
A bit of a "stock twits" board is starting up -- three posts over there today on AVXL..... mostly a day trading, short term investor site... but eventually a few astute posters will join over there.... Nothing will beat this site for good DD and smart posters though , so if that board heats up for me it will be more for entertainment purposes...
You keep posting stuff with topics that relate to that kid amateur writer David Ward ....he writes a lot about death spiral financing and other things you recently brought up .....Anyways AVXL is the "exact opposite" of that FYI...Go study AEZS if you want to know an example of death spiral ...it is when the there is a bunch of warrants issued that can be exercised on a "cashless" basis at prices always below previous market prices --- so the exercise price keeps droping .... and this opens the door for them to short the stock as well (BTW the AVXL financing has no warrants so totally wrong) ... are you sure you are not the kid writer as you talk his talk...which is drivel..
Last week Missling turned a reverse split into a positive, this week he turned a financing into a positive...whats next for this guy? Doubters like DW (Dim Wit) at SA (and his crony foxes guarding the hen house) do not have a clue about AVXL, and worse are proven morally bankrupt...
Thanks to Sal for trying his best to poke holes in the financing deal..... but the deal is as perfect as i could have ever imagined for AVXL...
nice try..... as if you could hold that minimal discount with blocks of stock in the millions...they have to have confidence in the stock price to do this deal...
financing terms are way more important than which lender sourced...LPC being in the info loop already was able to offer vastly superior terms...I very much doubt a new firm would have offered these valuable terms that we just got from LPC....you are dreaming thinking he should have gone for a top Wall St. firm at normal ( much more onerous) terms...... Missling again was at his best...
nothing has changed, LPC did one of the last financings and it did not cause AVXL problems in the past, why should it change in the future...Also if the science is like we think your point is even more totally irrelevant..
you are missing a huge point ....no warrants and our timing.!!!!!!!!!!
PIII N smaller than you think...due to the more revealing well designed open adaptive P2A, the desperateness of the AD decease, and the positive results of P2A.... N could be as low as 300 which could make a P3 trial maybe $25 million...So definitely now IMO AVXL can negotiate with BP from a position of complete strength...We might even get a partner to pay for PIII AD in return for 10%...JMHO...and then we have the $100 million for the other trials...
was exactly what i was thinking....what doe LPC know to agree to giving timing and price (at market ) up to AVXL...very impressive...
you are bringing up all the basher OHP arguments from the WARD article and the whiskey blog....There was a complete rebuttal to all of these points over on YMB a few days ago by MEH who is very knowledgable ...and yes there was observed Latency improvement and Amplitude was covered maybe because of the new study that shows superiority for their system using amplitude and the system AVXL is using ... but go to YMB find the author I mentioned and click on his name to get all his posts together ... He has more experience and knowledge on this exact subject...
how can we know exactly what an improved wave should look like exactly, (when no one has been improved before, behind some prelim work) maybe its not exactly like a normal wave, until more improved patients are analyzed we will not know what is an improved wave or not...
I think the p300 latency argumens are a fabrication to obscure the truth...why? how can you ask for proof of correlation as a measure of treatment improvement of the patient when there are almost no known instances of improvement of AD patients...period, (save except for 273 interim data) ...was actually surprised some fell for this sneaky ploy.....
Huge thanks Nieu..... amazing to get this top quality of new research on a message board.... Not only a huge credit to you but also somewhat reflective of this message board quality as well.... right now over on YMB it is swamped with hard core mindless bashers ... what a nice place here...
For example in Greece , where Dr.V lives, and neighbouring countries, drug dev laws are totally different...Bangledash has no laws I have heard...so what i alluded to was the thought of after they received positive mouse results, in that part of the world, might they have done some additional more advanced testing of the drugs that we are not aware of, and to confirm the mouse results internally... for all we know Dr. V. is on the drug now himself as he is over 70 years old...
I heard somewhere else that the 26 week period would still be the end of the study as planned but the extension would in reality be a new part to the study --- i.e. did not change the original study design timelines and i assume reporting..
yes i should have said second interim ....I guess final will be in about 10 months?
daggers are in mens smiles ...again today beware......
yes and thanks for the reminder...
after Nov 7th , next up will be waiting for full P2A part B....which should be out within a few months after..
what i was hinting at as a possibility was for example ape or human off trial, off the record testing.......
Just my personal opinion but I think the entire SAB knows this drug works and a big part of the reason is they know the mouse studies work on sigma 1 receptor results in mice... unlike plague removal previous mouse studies which did not work..... and likely because 273 focuses on keeping and improving nuron health and also firing properly at the microscopic level .. which is identical to humans at nuron function.....The fact that they could detect synergy with aricept also indicates mice tests were helpful...Have to wonder also what other kind of mammal testing they did overseas in Greeece under Dr. V, that may have not been reported..... I am not sure about 371 but I would be very surprised if they did not use mice in Isreal at some point in its development also.....
Think about the timing now of the DW SA hatchet job article ...looks like a total attempt to thrash out retail shares prior to todays uplist (and maybe evenpatent) news...Also note how much of a rush DW was to get that article out, and on a stock he had many times previously shown no interest in.... sure looks like they had a good adea of what was about to happen and the timing... if you sold as a result of the article and subsequent mega bashing and fade... you have reason to be upset at what looks like a completely morally bankrupt con job conspiracy...
I think Missling has back up and parallel plans for AVXL along the development path incase of any road bumps of any sort... the guy is so well planned I do not think any eventuality can catch him flat footed...the significance of the Octoberfest NY meetings are unknown but you can surmise I think it is part of the contingency planning...JMHO...
saw this question asked very recently (buy Smith I think) and i believe the answer was that the decision would be based on the data ...I think it was posted somewhere here or YMB around 2 days ago..
probably because some of the most active posters here did not heed their own advice (be patient long) and tried to trade sentiment, and did horrible ...jmo
remember daggers lie in mens smiles ..."Tootall, Shakesppere"...
Of course bashers want to help retail investors that they do not even know...LOL...
P.S. I only respect sensible scientific soft bashers.... or ones bringing new arguments worthy of consideration .... IMO none here meet this criteria...
The fox guarding the hen house......S.A. editors overseeing articles....
DW (DimWhit): "editors reviewed so its good"
A couple of additional thoughts:
-targeting upstream pathology (mis-folded proteins) very likely has outcomes uncorelated to plaque removal drugs (as almost 100% of previous drugs were)..
-also since they were not targeting plaque removal they could do tests on untreated mice ...for example see if they could make old mice smarter....
I am very positive on the mouse studies also ... since, for all mammals, at the microscopic level the firing of neuros in function is all the same. A mouses brain is obviously less complex ... but at the individual neurone level virtually identical... I think the preclinical mouse studies are incredibly overlooked as a result in the 273 analysis ..... not surprising also that DW (DimWhit) did not even mention preclinical studies...
Morally Bankrupt Author = D______W_______
Ward says "uncle"...
"I do not have a PHD"...
As I predicted he wrote a worthless but controversy based piece in an attempt to capitalize on the page view money he could receive by releasing prior to Nov. 7 conference... Also he is a bitter man, that can not understand how he could miss the top bio-tech company in the universe of stocks he specializes in...namely small cap bios.....
thinking they would have to have been prepared for the worst case situation --- i.e. that NAS rejected this cat $3.00 app and moved them to the $4 category .... and with the volatility of Bios, coupled with recent short attacks they would have had to target at least $5, with any kind of cushion ....especially knowing the cost of the uplisting is expensive and failure here would not be good.....