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GM pennies and thanks. It'll probably be a lot clearer for me when you do the vid on the updated fib boxes. I don't believe I'm on the same page with you guys yet because I my lines aren't locating price action reversals on GU.
Hey pennies.... on your 15 minute AU chart here, what "trade level" was your 1.04769; the 88.6 fib level, or the 76.8?
Also, would you expect to see an 88.6 fib hit on the GU 4 hour chart or maybe a new low before the reversal plays out fully?
Appreciate your mentioning the TDI breakout pennies. I hadn't noticed though I did notice and was focused on the break through that upper trendline.
Pennies.......what are your thoughts on GU this morning? I just closed out my most recent long intentionally and my two prior longs unintentionally through Oanda and don't understand why since they were all different lot size trades.
I've reentered a new small long here just to see if the daily has more of a good bounce in store for us beyond this move up to the 15min MTF 240ema line.
I'm still in and stuck. I may set stops below the trendline on GU before going to bed. Once out whether ahead or behind, I'll be going to the larger time frames myself estimator. And if I can't find a way to make decent gains over the larger time frames, then I'm done. Too many hours wasted waiting for reversals that don't happen until days and days have past. I'm really becoming discouraged again here.
Yep, me too and I may here again if it breaks that trendline!
Where's pennies with his updated fib box chart or vid on the GU? It's been lonely around here today without his input.
There very well could be estimator but it will still have to bounce somewhere along the way into that 5th wave. It could bounce overnight from here. Unfortunately I just don't know when it's going to bounce or at which fib line, and I don't want to still be stuck 500 pips below current price when it finally bounces before resuming that 5th wave, extended or not.
Right estimator......there's another 60 to 70 approximate pips to the trendline near as I can tell too. And that 4th wave end on the weekly is what I'm worried about. Once that trendline is broken and the 5th wave kicks in, then how many more days or weeks before we see a bounce allowing us to get right on our initial entries?
Don't know....I'm afraid to go to bed tonight for fear of what I might wake up to! LOL
Hey boca........I think the TDI baseline gonna start to come up from below the 32 line on the 4 hour when the baseline once the TDI baseline makes it's way down and then begins to start its way back up on the weekly chart. Maybe somewhere around parity? That's how it feels anyway when watching it day after day.
That's my fear estimator. I almost don't dare risk adding here, but if it does bounce off this weekly trendline one last time before price falls through the floor, then I'd be in better shape if I did add now. What to do.......
That'd be nice wouldn't it? Price has all but hit that trendline jav. I'm just wondering if I dare add here to help get back to even all the sooner in event it does reverse in this area.
Hey all......so if we break support on my weekly GU trendline in the chart below, where to next? Simple? Pennies? Anybody? Anybody? The only support I see is on the previous weekly inverse H&S pattern candle lows in the 1.527 area where my 200% fib line is on that chart below. All you have to do is look at weekly trendlines to see that the weekly chart plays a huge role in larger pip reversal places, and since I've been holding these damn GU longs for over two weeks now, I might as well give the weekly chart it's due respect!
Hope so.....I'm not convinced but it should bounce there. If not, I'm open to more fib ideas. lol
Estimator......this drop was a surprise for me. Not based on the fibs, but on the price action. I'm sorry I took that third and latest long when I did now!
Since I too see a couple/three different fib lines at that 1.561/2 area I'm going to go ahead and add again when price gets there I guess. Hopefully that daily trendline will hold fast.
GM all....I added to my GU position here just in case it does bounce enough to carry us to 1.59 or thereabouts. The sooner I get back to even on it, the better. I'm still in small so if it moves to the next major fib below I can add there without too much risk. I'll be back on later this morning hopefully but I have to get busy doing some things....
Hey boca.....fwiw, I haven't had my Oanda demo account long but when I had demo accounts with FXCM and Alpari, they would expire after a period and I'd have to open new demo accounts.
I logged in earlier and have been logged in for a few hours now boca and I'm not having any apparant trouble with my Oanda platform right now. But I'm not going to close it out and try to log in again to see if I might have troubles with it.
There ya go......act your maturity level not your age and you'll be in good shape when out fishing or when you think you're fishing when you're sitting in your wheelchair in the old folks home at age 90.
LOL.....yeah, it's how I like to roll.....magnifier in one hand and a nice dark beer in the other. lol...
Think healthy and young jav. Don't dwell. Pretend you're still a youngster. I walk to stay fairly fit. No marathons, just a good walk or three weekly. I lost my mother a decade ago and it feels like yesterday some days. I have to walk away from the dark hole many days myself. Walking helps bring me back from the dark side.
Hey boca, are you struggling to see SGs MT4 chart text too? I'm using a magnifying glass to see it! lol......
Thanks SG.....that helps! eom
Maybe we fill the gap and move up from there? lol..
Pennies.......if you do a vid of SG's updated fib setup, could you use GU for your example since we're in it currently? With fridays daily doji candle and the MTF240 I'm still hopeful of a bounce if only brief to give us a place to get right or profitable before it moves lower, IF that's where it's headed based on SGs fib setup.
The thick blue MTF 15min 240 ema line is leveling out though as if to indicate a brief shot up to the ema5 high yellow line during a one day or two day candle before a move lower to the 150 fib line happens though; maybe anyway....
SG......so considering fib lines and candle price action on my daily GU chart below, what are your thoughts and suspicions about where it's likely headed to over the next couple to several days? I'm really wondering if it isn't headed to that lower daily trendline around the 150% fib or lower. What say ye?
Well that's interesting. And as far as my thoughts and perceptions go, I would have waited for the next daily candle to give a better idea of price action but I would have missed out on the trade. With that last long green candle I would have expected the first red bear candle to open at the green candles close and move up from there. That's great....
I did notice that the wicks will stop right at fib lines too, so that leaves me with less confidence in the real bodies alone, but maybe the TDI setups can help confirm whether it will be the location of the real body or the wick that stops and reverses price.
So what prompted you to take the short there at the 50% fib line SG??? Why didn't you wait to see if the 88.6 fib would get hit even wait to see if there would be a break above the 100% line?
And had the most recent white arrow fractal set already by the time you entered short? And could that fractal arrow paint as indis do if the price did move up further to the 88.6 fib, or did the arrow lock in and prevent the 88.6 fib from being hit?
SG.......when looking at the fib lines on a chart I can see where the real body of the candle respects the fib lines much better and far more often than the wicks of those candles. Unfortunately there can be a couple hundred pips on a daily wick. Just another thing to work around.
And since I see your fib boxes all stacked when applying your 300 fib settings template, I'm going to go ahead and leave your 300 template up and running and see how each new swing high/low fib layout aligns with the prior 300 fib layout. I can always remove it if it gets in the way.
So SG.......was my arrow fractal the right one to use or the dotted fractal S&R or neither? And how does the fib expansion tool come into play or does it for you?
I noticed that too SG and just finished laying down the 3 fibs I was missing in that hole. I'm thinking about leaving them there just to see how price action behaves around them in time. They're not a problem being there since we don't see them unless we zoom way out on our chart anyway, but they will show up when price action moves to them and then we can observe the interaction.
No.....I emboldened it so you would see exactly which parameters I was referring to. Does my revised chart show your 200 retrace properly now?
When looking at my own fib chart after using your fib settings SG, I can see where I definately need to see a verifying example posted by yourself or pennies with your approval before I can assume mine is right. Here's mine using your parameters though if you want to use it for advising any correction. You'll notice that I did lay down the 88.6 fib too though. I've seen price obey it too many times to leave it off my chart. Also, you'll notice all those little fractal arrows from my default MT4 platform "fractal" indicator, but I think that it's probably not the fractal indicator you were recommending for application. Can you give us all a redirect for downloading the exact fractal indi you are using?
Hey Pennies! Just the right person to make easy understanding of SGs fib instructions! As I was saying to him, it seems to me that these fibs are the place to apply all your TDI reversal plays. It'll help avoid the TDI failure places or at least the low odd reversal areas for your TDI setups.
Wow SG, that was a bit of a novel, if only a short novel. LOL I got a lot of what you were saying but not all of it. I sure get the part in the begining where emas and indis all tell a different story as you go from one time frame to another; thus confusion and a lack of focus on the big picture. I love the fact that fibs are not TF dependent! I've always felt that were the real advantage to using them; not just because the banks do or because I see price action reverse right at one fib or another. I was still frustrated in not knowing which fib line would bring a reversal.
Now referring to your last paragraph and the daily 38.2 and 61.8 consolidation areas of 100 pips or more......it isn't a real surprise and I can imagine there would be some nice scalping potential possibly. And waiting for a retest of the top trendline once breakout topside occurs before taking a long position makes perfect sense.
I'm thinking that although the fib lines can't be used for picking tops and bottoms, once price is near a major fib level, we can start looking for those TDI reversals that pennies has mastered like the "pressure cooker" setup. Those TDI setups can maybe help us pick the tops and bottoms when those fibs get hit.
Now this paragraph of yours has me confused. I'll highlight it below in italics. Maybe you or somebody can post a chart illustrating your point?
If a pair for example makes it up to a 100% retrace mark it will(except for news spikes)fall back a fair amt of pips but will then go right back to test that LEVEL..a firm test and failure will be considered as a short as it begins to set lower highs and resistance there is clearly shown.If you enter the short your target will be 38.2 to close the trade and take profits.
Actually I could use better understanding of the following paragraph too.
At that level and under these conditions it will almost always try to go back up to that 100% mark..if it fails to gain back more than about 50 or so percent of the move back up off of 38.2 bounce then its quite likey that it will go on from there back to the downside with lower price target at 61.8 or at least a further dip to 50% fib mark.In my experience I find that if a 50 is hit on retrace theres almost always a bounce but its a profit taking bounce and 61.8 remains the target.Nothings set in stone and some moves may well hold 50% support...but the majority of the time 61.8 is target on a retrace that loses 38.2 support.
If on the right side of these moves its IMO wise to take profits as levels get hit.If the move keeps going in same direction you were in after a firm test of level shows this is imminent then consider shorting again if it was a short or long again if it was a long.
Ok, I'm done with my novel response to your novel tutoring.
GM SG and I noticed you have a couple of 150% fibs there with the first being emboldened from your list below as well as your second. I'm guessing you intended the first to be the true 150% where the second would be just 50%. Is that right? And did you mean for the 200% fib (in red below) to be entered as "-1"? Or should that be -2 instead?
1.382 138.2 %$%
1.5 150 %$%
1.618 168.1 %$%
-0.382 138.2 %$%
-0.618 168.1 %$%
-0.50 150 %$%
-1 200 %$%
3.0 300 %$%
2.382 238.2 %$%
2.50 250 %$%
2.618 261.8 %$%
-3 300 %$%
-2.382 238.2 %$%
-2.50 250 %$%
-2.618 261.8 %$%