Wow SG, that was a bit of a novel, if only a short novel. LOL I got a lot of what you were saying but not all of it. I sure get the part in the begining where emas and indis all tell a different story as you go from one time frame to another; thus confusion and a lack of focus on the big picture. I love the fact that fibs are not TF dependent! I've always felt that were the real advantage to using them; not just because the banks do or because I see price action reverse right at one fib or another. I was still frustrated in not knowing which fib line would bring a reversal.
Now referring to your last paragraph and the daily 38.2 and 61.8 consolidation areas of 100 pips or more......it isn't a real surprise and I can imagine there would be some nice scalping potential possibly. And waiting for a retest of the top trendline once breakout topside occurs before taking a long position makes perfect sense.
I'm thinking that although the fib lines can't be used for picking tops and bottoms, once price is near a major fib level, we can start looking for those TDI reversals that pennies has mastered like the "pressure cooker" setup. Those TDI setups can maybe help us pick the tops and bottoms when those fibs get hit.
Now this paragraph of yours has me confused. I'll highlight it below in italics. Maybe you or somebody can post a chart illustrating your point?
If a pair for example makes it up to a 100% retrace mark it will(except for news spikes)fall back a fair amt of pips but will then go right back to test that LEVEL..a firm test and failure will be considered as a short as it begins to set lower highs and resistance there is clearly shown.If you enter the short your target will be 38.2 to close the trade and take profits.
Actually I could use better understanding of the following paragraph too.
At that level and under these conditions it will almost always try to go back up to that 100% mark..if it fails to gain back more than about 50 or so percent of the move back up off of 38.2 bounce then its quite likey that it will go on from there back to the downside with lower price target at 61.8 or at least a further dip to 50% fib mark.In my experience I find that if a 50 is hit on retrace theres almost always a bounce but its a profit taking bounce and 61.8 remains the target.Nothings set in stone and some moves may well hold 50% support...but the majority of the time 61.8 is target on a retrace that loses 38.2 support.
If on the right side of these moves its IMO wise to take profits as levels get hit.If the move keeps going in same direction you were in after a firm test of level shows this is imminent then consider shorting again if it was a short or long again if it was a long.
Ok, I'm done with my novel response to your novel tutoring.
AI
