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So far G/J has pulled back from a line of resistance off numerous candle bottoms throughout september and first week in october, on the lower time frames. And, price has so far reversed at my weekly zone bottom of week before last, which I had drawn off the bottom of the lower wick on the candle immediately occuring prior to the bearish engulfing candle from last week. Will the pullback stick for ? I dunno. Curious though.
There's a big difference worth discovery,imo stargate. Though the S/D zone lines do essentially become levels of S&R, there's a difference in location of the S/D zone parameters over the S&R lines overall. I'm finding that the S&R lines still apply, but the S/D zones are more trustworthy than any indicator on my chart. These are high odd areas (or zones) of reversal. Take the time, if you can find it, to really get a good applicable and working knowledge of what the zones are and how to locate them. You still have to trade with conservative lot sizes and the price can blow right through a zone, but there are definite stop loss points and high odd targets to be found. Not to preach, but these zones are giving me a lot more confidence in taking and holding my positions now.
Not sure if my post made sense, but my point is that the very bottom of a 5 minute supply zone would be the reversal point vice somewhere in the zone as occurs on the other time frames more often than not. The wick will hit the zone line or miss it by a pip or two and then price reverses. It doesn't get any better than that on a 5 minute chart. Happens frequently on every pair I've looked at.
I'll tell you something I have noticed pennies......I can't tell you how often I see price reverse on the 5 minute chart at zones which I have drawn in using the full candle length, from end of wick to end of wick, (if there are any wicks) occuring immediately prior to the longer reversal candle, i.e.. engulfing candles. Not so much on the 1 hour chart and above but it sure happens a lot on the 5 minute chart.
Interesting pennies........I'm curious how often the 88.6 fib causes a reversal when the fibs are laid down off the zones vice the major waves. I'll be paying placing my fib tool down accordingly though to find out. What of the other fibs like the 50 and 61.8 though.....are they reversal points as well using the zones vice waves?
Hey Stargate.......where's the daily demand zone on gold; can you tell? As far as I know, I don't have the option in my MT4 to bring up the gold or silver chart. Pennies can as I remember though.
I'm in middle of making food for family......maybe I'll get lucky and not miss it? lol
Ok pennies........you were lining up your fibs off that previous weekly low which threw me off because it wasn't where I'd expect to lay a fib tool off of. I would have thought that only 150.28 or the bottom of the weekly demand zone I have in mind would work for bottom to top fib measure or maybe even the next true demand zone below that even .
Anyway, I see that I'm ignoring previous zone areas once they are made old by a new wave. They still count and I need to leave old zones on my chart.
Now looking at the chart in retrospect, it was an obvious good place to take the trade. Not just the 88fib but the 4 hour demand zone which was good for a bounce. At least the TRIX (5/2) and (7,5) is helping me to find confidence in those zone setups. Thanks again for the chart.
Pennies.....thank you! I don't have time to read your reply right now; busy, busy......but I will be getting back to it here over the next couple hours to discuss maybe if you aren't in bed already catching up on your sleep since you didn't apparantly get any last night.
I exited early myself but it was profitable nonetheless. Still like to see a chart bud.
Ok pennies......I've been too busy to post or even look at charts this morning with outdoor work on the property that had to be done before it freezes here, making the ground too hard to work, but before heading out the backdoor I did take your G/J trade and managed to make up my 20 pips loss on G/U this morning. I had a stop in place that luckily didn't get hit while I was away. Anyway, you called it spot on, and on both sides of the trade accomodating the spread, and I'm impressed but I'd like to see the exact G/J zone chart that you were trading off of. I can see where G/J had 5 waves down on the 4 hour chart but I'm having trouble laying down any good zone that you would have traded off of.
pileit1.......I have to apologise for not replying to your post, but I didn't notice it when scanning through the board posts yesterday after logging off soon after posting myself and didn't log back in when I did scan the board.
Yep, you were right and it did pullback. Price has moved down to the lower ascending channel line where I don't know if it'll bounce or not, but I got out of my original entry with a 20 pip loss on it vice the 100 pips or greater I was facing yesterday when I posted. So much for pennies 1.615 supply zone that pennies had looked for next resistance. I didin't add, so I didn't get out with gains. Oh well I guess.
Anyway, I'm out now and will see if I can't make a profitable trade off some zone on some pair next. Thanks for the input.
GM all........still in G/U waiting to add again at the right zone in order to eventually return to break even, at least, on my initial short which I entered over a month ago. Hopefully price won't crash through the next couple weekly supply zones before I get my chance to finally find gains. Problem is that neither of the zones are fresh. I see 1.6642 for the bottom of the next "fresh" supply zone on the weekly chart which comprises the fullness of the "shooting star" candle located during the week of august 2nd. No problem though as it's only 915 odd pip above current price. lol I goess I could just lock in the loss on my initial short; and maybe I should.
I see that G/U had another supporting bounce off the 4 hour demand zone. Doesn't do me any good but it's nice to see the zones apply.
Have a great weekend pennies. eom
I've got a lot of catching up to do before I can fly to Hawaii to celebrate being rich! LOL But......I'm closer to getting there now than I was a month ago just because of knowledge from this charting revelation. I remember we touched on the zones months ago but didn't pursue it for long. Now, and thanks to SG, we've given it due attention and are seeing better where the zones really are and how powerful they are as price action magnets, and how these zones trump all other indicators and technicals alone and by themselves.
Thanks. Oh and btw, when I said "done and done", I didn't necessarily mean the 5th wave down was done, but rather the best nearest spot for taking a that 5th wave short is done and gone. If it continues to decline from here without returning to 1.615 then that's ok too. I'll just let G/U do what it's going to do now and look to exit my initial trade if we see 1.59 first.
I'm only down 5% for the month of September. If I'd traded the zones that I have marked on my chart, I'd be up at least that amount if not more depending on lot size. That daily and weekly 1.625 price point at the bottom of the major supply zone was where I would have taken my short and I'd be up a couple hundred pips alone had I takn the short either monday or tuesday and held it through this morning. Definately increases my hope that I can turn things around now.
And there's that 40 pips and 5th wave on G/U. Done and done. No biggie. Now we look for 1.615 to take a safer short.
Thanks, but I have made and will make much bigger mistakes than keeping my trade account computer as clean as possible. It won't take long to get the old machine up and running if I can get a trustworthy newer windows OS installed on it.
Thanks pennies but I need to get that old Dell up and running first. I want that trade computer clean and as soon as I load anything from anyone other than the broker, it's no longer "sterile", if there is such a thing which I'm seriously doubting now.
If I ever get my old Dell 8400 up and running again I'll be looking into that ADR along with the other zone tools that you have on your chart. Right now I'm keeping my trade account computer as free from any downloads as possible.
I hadn't considered the ADR even though it's on my chart. Alright, you talked me out of it. And I was just about to click the sell button! LOL
So you wouldn't risk taking a short here for the 40 plus pips that may be gained before it bounces?
So pennies......looking at the hourly chart strictly from an elliot wave perspective, would you say we've had a fifth wave down occur yet because it sure doesn't look like it to me. I'm wondering if we shouldn't be seeing another low even if only slightly before we see that move up to a possible 1.615.
It helps me a bunch seeing that your two 4 hour zones are within a couple pips top or bottom of being exactly where I had placed mine.
Thanks! That's what I was looking for. And that 1.615 would make a decent spot for me to add a new 2nd position to my original.
I was hoping the zone trading would simplify things more than it has. But, I'm finding that my zones from all the different time frames are overlapping each other to the point that I'm having trouble picking one over another unless I stick to one time frame only whether it be daily or 4 hour or 1 hour, but that's tearing apart my desire to scalp off the 15 minute chart with any strong conviction based on the 15 minute zones.
GM pennies........I managed to get closer to even overnight on my most recent G/U short, but still have my original small 1.5893 short underwater by nearly 200 pips. I looked back at this 15 minute chart of yours and noticed that demand line was placed around my line of support resistance. I didn't identifiy a zone there but a line of S&R. Price moved 25 pips below that pinbar low and line of S&R and then promptly moved back up to test it and drop from there overnight. What are your thoughts now on G/U considering the daily chart down to the 15 minute time frame?
I have often seen price make sudden fast jerky movements one direction before it really takes off and I'll bet that's what you're referring to when the bid/ask lines get "nervous". More often than not it does mean that price will move in that direction strongly as if the horses are getting excited in their gates to break out and race down the course. I'll be paying attention for that "nervous" bid/ask action now, especially to see if it's occuring at the same time that price action starts to get all jiggly before making it's move.
Having the bid/ask lines up on the chart now SG is making it easy for me to see when the lines spread wider (meaning bigger spread between bid/ask) than usually observed when volotility is low, so counting the number of pips isn't really a important for me anyway, as I can watch for one line to hit my entry target and take the trade if the distance between the two lines is the normal narrow distance where I want it to be for entering a position on my live trade platform.
Can anyone answer the second question in my previous help post? Pennies, you're a computer guru repair tech......can you direct me towards an affordable and secure MS certified windows 7 OS for running on my old Dell desktop Home computer?
Right well that's what I've been doing too but like me, it gets old. lol
Hey SG.......I don't care what pennies says about you......you're ok! LOL Thanks btw!!!
You can't tell me if there's an option to measure pips on that same live platform can you? I can measure pips on my MT4 but I'm not seeing anyway to do it on the trade platform....
Help! I need to know how to lay down bid and ask lines on my Oanda fxTrade platform! Anyone? Anyone?
AND.....I'm not able to post charts because Micro S(hit)oft abandonded their windows XP op system and no longer do security updates so it's no longer an OS that can be depended on and unfortunately my old Dell 8400 is out of commission unless I load a new OS onto it like windows 7 or newer. So.......my question is this: what version of windows 7 would I need which would be secure but be bare bones in terms of compatibility with hardware and software that I don't need other than the internet, printer and sound drivers? This is strictly a home office machine to run my MT4 from. The old machine has life left in it but not if its going to cost me much over a hundred bucks for another OS.
Oh good. I don't care who steers me to it, but if noone responds to my request here, I'll hit you up about it again later this afternoon.
Hey pennies.......does the Oanda live fxTrade platform have an option for showing the bid and ask lines on the chart? If so, where do you find that option 'cause I'm just not seeing it if its there...
Pennies.......I see G/U priced 150 pips below the topmost line on a weekly/monthly consolidation wedge pattern. I would think that would be good for a pullback.
This new months candle began at the close of a wickless prior months 730 pip long bullish candle. That too makes me think we should see a decent pullback.
But if not, I've drawn a fresh daily zone lower boundary line at 1.64510. Whether that stops price or not there's a couple more daily zone lines above that but I have no intention of holding on beyond this current daily zone high of 1.6386.
I guess I've answered my own question but I was curious as to your take on G/U and the most likely price target that should turn it around.
Pennies......I'll visit your chart, but whats your next zone price after that? I'm afraid to ask! LOL
Pennies......whether you play G/U tonight or not, I'd be interested in an updated zone chart on the 1 hour and 15 minute time frames if you have the time and don't mind posting them. I'm still upside down on my G/U shorts from 1.586 or so and would like to recoup my paper losses and see this trade turn positive if possible.
Ok, well keep those charts coming then 'cause you must be doing something right when it comes to identifying zones and trading off them.
Thank you for declaring that because I see no way so far to trade the zones strictly on the merit of pasted rectangle zones, without confirmation whether from trendlines, fibs, candles patterns or even the best of the lagging indicators ie, TDI indicator.
pennies.......consider this......the single most important flaw in what I saw with alfonzos method beyond his getting the trades wrong due to misinterpreting the future price direction based on "weakness of the upcoming fresh zone", was that in his charts I saw a few different occasions where he had drawn his zones and traded strictly off the closest boundary line to the next upcoming "fresh" zone.......but unfortunately for him and us if we trade that way, the price would crash through his zone and punch through the opposite boundary line which he wouldn't have traded from and then after moving just a little bit further in pips the price would make a new high or low and then immediately bounce back a huge number of pips in the opposite direction finally making a TRUE reversal.
I know pennies, but I wish it weren't so....