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Thank you, creede. Appreciate it.
Schwab question for creede or anyone else on Schwab. What's their commission rate on otc stuff like warrants and shell trades, etc? Have you found them to be negotiable at all? If you've got 30,000 shares for sale, will you get fills for 200 shares, etc., where you're essentially being nickled and dimed to death? I'm aware of all or none trades, but have had much better luck when my buy or sell orders are visible.
Any input from Schwab customers would be appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Germany getting awfully lucky (thankfully) with warmest October temps in 140 yrs:
The warmest October in 140 years in Germany
— Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) October 29, 2022
Not the worst timing for such a record given the reaction in gas prices pic.twitter.com/hxJyCQDRig
PGNT Other than the obvious fact that low float, low volume stocks are prone to wide swings, have you heard or seen any reason for the recent decline?
17-Week T-Bill 4.297% at latest auction
Also, somebody posted this a couple of days:
US Treasury Yields:
End of 2021 -> Today
1-Mo: 0.06% -> 3.55%
3-Mo: 0.06% -> 4.09%
6-Mo: 0.19% -> 4.43%
1-Yr: 0.39% -> 4.58%
2-Yr: 0.73% -> 4.49%
3-Yr: 0.97% -> 4.52%
5-Yr: 1.26% -> 4.34%
7-Yr: 1.44% -> 4.28%
10-Yr: 1.52% -> 4.21%
30-Yr: 1.90% -> 4.33%
Europe natgas prices actually went negative for a short time this morning. lol. Storage is full and warmer than usual weather:
Next hour gas price turned negative in Europe today 👇 Winter is coming 😊 Chart @JanVonGerich pic.twitter.com/fSH2uDQqVy
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) October 24, 2022
Yep, quite possible. And talk of price controls in Europe could make things even worse.
Europe natgas down $15 this morning and US natgas flirting with the 4's.
Have we been had by yet another false narrative from the media?
I'm not a big believer in technical analysis, but a lot of people are, so I pay attention to it. Maybe we're near the bottom; there should be pretty good support for natgas around 5-even. But if that breaks, I see no reason we couldn't continue down the 3's or 2's.
Just a couple of months ago, $15-$20 gas seemed inevitable. We could still see it, who knows.
But perhaps the market's biggest fear is of price caps in Europe. That would fit the WEF playbook. Price controls would lead to shortages which would lead to rationing. Then they would blame capitalism for not being able to supply enough gas, thus it's time for govts to nationalize energy companies, because govts know how to solve problems!
I'm starting to wonder if this whole Europe energy thing hasn't just been a massive manipulation. It could all be true, but it could also be a glorified pump and dump.
These days my first inclination is to believe the opposite of what the media reports. There's definitely a narrative: millions in Europe could freeze to death!, people buying firewood to save their lives!, huge devastation! Whether it's someone pushing a nefarious narrative, or just the typical media ritual of making everything sound far worse than it really is to get more viewers/readers/listeners, it's quite possible that the end of the world will once again be postponed.
Meanwhile, massive amounts of money from govts around the globe will have made its way into the hands of people who stand to benefit financially from the fear and hysteria.
We'll see how it all shakes out.
Nothing makes sense to me anymore lol. Natgas price in the low 5's, inventories building around the globe, europe natgas prices plummeting . . . and yet, the prices of natgas stocks are holding up rather well. SD is well above it's low of late Sept.
Could be that the market is anticipating the re-opening of two big LNG facilities here in the U.S, but those haven't happened yet and this administration is incredibly negative toward fossil fuels, so I'll believe the re-openings AFTER they've happened :
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/freeport-lng-prepares-to-resume-service-after-lengthy-outage/
Never know how much of this stuff to believe anymore.
Well, that guy was dead on with his projection of 125bcf injection. But this article claims the market was expecting +127, so natgas prices went up. lol.
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/10755230/nat-gas-prices-jump-on-a-smaller-build-in-eia-inventories
Natgas price, here's a guy with a more bearish view. Have no idea if he'll be correct or not, but always worth considering the other side of the argument:
For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Oct 1-7, I am projecting a +125 BCF injection, 43 BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & 39 BCF higher YoY. It would easily be the single largest build for the week in the last 5 yrs & tied for the fifth largest build for ANY week all time. pic.twitter.com/l7ZrI8cVQ4
— Celsius Energy (@CelsiusEnergyFM) October 13, 2022
TGLO - Isn't it fair to say that none of the assets of Delfin are currently associated in any way with TGLO? Or am I misreading this? With majority ownership, Delfin certainly could move some of those assets into TGLO at some point, but there may also be more shares issued to pay off debt, or they might do a reverse split or any number of other things. Otcmarkets also currently gives it a "Stock Promotion" designation.
We'll see. I have a sinking feeling it might still be a little early. And if this truly is manipulation before the elections, who knows, natgas might go down a lot more.
Tough to figure out what the facts are these days, much less how the markets are gonna react to those facts. Can't trust hardly anything.
Perhaps a turning day? Bought a little SD and SBOW again the last couple of days. Feeling like (or maybe hoping?) energy is gonna turn up for a bit. Maybe? Hopefully?
SD in the 14's, oil in the 70's and natgas in the 6's. There was supposedly a shortage of everything around the globe. EU natgas down to 181. Tough to know what to believe. I don't take anything reported in the media as gospel anymore.
Seems crazy that SD is approaching its lows of a couple months ago, yet here we are
ISSC Does the name Norman H. Pessin ring a bell with anybody? He seems to have taken a stake and then the company adopted a poison pill. I'm not familiar with him:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836690/000114036122033022/brhc10041792_sc13da.htm
EPA did NOT waive Cheniere pollution requirements. Missed this article on Tuesday, but the EPA is going after the Cheniere facility.
In their last earnings call, Cheniere CEO said he didn't think there would be any operation interruptions. I'm a bit less sanguine. The CEO talked about how he's worked with EPA for like 30yrs on such issues and expected to find a resolution. My take is that the last 30yrs weren't *woke* mindset in charge. This administration, as well as the current Zeitgeist among the cool kids, is that ALL energy is horrible becuz mankind is ruining the planet.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-futures-extend-losses-early-amid-concerns-over-cheniere-lng-decision/?v=DG_PopPosts
Yeah, I remember him "taking responsibility" for the phony numbers . . . . by blaming an inanimate object -- the accounting software. That's what made me steer clear. The software inadvertently added $2 million on the cash flow statements, he said. We've all had this happen before, right? Happens all the time. If you buy a simple calculator from a dollar store, instead of one that costs $90, it will frequently say that 1 + 1 = 4. It'll just add stuff in. We've all experienced this.
I'd bet the untruthful things he's typed were probably due to a faulty keyboard that just added things in too. He never typed those things, they keyboard typed them inadvertently and sent them out. Keyboard wasn't robust enough. Common problem that everyone can relate to.
ISSC - Not sure why this one has been on such a run lately, but it has. Had a huge buy late afternoon yesterday. Last Q earnings were okay, but nothing huge. Anyone have any idea why it's running?
WEF = World Economic Forum.
Klaus Schwab and all these billionaire people pushing for The Great Reset and ESG and you lowly human beings are the problem driving in your cars, but they fly in their private jets as they talk against fossil fuels and in favor of "sustainable" energy (which is a grift via govt subsidies that they benefit financially from). Schwab openly talks about his group having infiltrated govts. So you essentially have elected representatives in countries who are not representing their citizens, but representing an outside organization. Trudeau in Canada is one of his biggest acolytes:
Klaus Schwab in his own words:
https://twitter.com/dessere88/status/1497914997497810945
Essentially, these people are socialists and de-populationists. They're against ALL energy. Very similar to a movement that happened in the 1970s. Anybody old enough remembers that windmills and solar were all the rage back then too. Right along with Paul Ehrlich and his book, The Population Bomb. The big movement of the time was ZPG (Zero Population Growth). It's the same thing all over again. If you want to go even further back, this is a 224 year old economic myth started by Thomas Malthus, an Anglican cleric and economist of the day, in 1798. He first posited that population would grow faster than food production and thus we'd all starve. This came to be known as a Malthusian Collapse. Thus population growth had to stop! Of course it never happened. In the '70s it morphed into a group called The Club of Rome and they published a book called The Limits To Growth. Then it morphed into the New World Order. This movement literally makes a resurgence about every 50 years or so
It's no surprise that the Dutch govt is also pushing for bans on fertilizer and farmers, becuase PM Rutte is also a follower:
https://forumfordemocracy.com/article/dutch-prime-minister-caught-lying-about-connections-klaus-schwab
Oh I'm definitely not claiming it would make any sense. Ha! These elitist blowhards just tend to think they have all the answers to everything.
Even in the US it's a total joke that this gal named Jennifer Granholm is Secty of Energy and has zero energy experience. Yet she has all the answers.
All Energy Tumbling Again
Tough to figure out what the truth is. Energy should be booming. Winter right around the corner. Even EU natgas prices tumbling:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Did the speculation all ready happen and it's not going to be as bad as expected? Or will govts step in a cap prices, or nationalize energy? Will energy co's in Europe go bankrupt if people refuse to pay? Was it all overblown? Or is this just a small down-turn in a longer bull market?
I really don't have any idea what the heck is gonna happen. But it certainly isn't looking as easy-peasy as it looked at one point. A few more dollars down and oil will be trading in the $70s
Yep, Europe could be in real trouble with cascading defaults coming throughout the financial system. Of course, it's always tough to know how much of this media stuff you can believe, but it certainly doesn't look good.
Perhaps the biggest thing that has to have one scratching one's head is everyone knows that winter is coming, this is not a surprise, and yet oil and natgas continue to decline. Lots of predictions of $200-$300 oil, but with winter coming shortly, both continue to fall in price. Those prices could still happen, I don't know, but who knows how much of the runup was speculation, false narrative, bogus new stories, etc, and how much is real. Seems like the markets are predicting massive demand destruction.
Since most of them are infiltrated with WEF lackeys, I could foresee European govts nationalizing all energy companies if things got really bad. And they seem to be getting bad by design.
We'll see what happens.
That is indeed odd. Looks like a few new Asks have come in at lower prices. I have no idea why those buys
Gaming European Power Prices
This thread seems to be another good example of how one never knows how different markets work, in different localities, with different rules to favor certain players, ways to game the system, etc. I don't claim to have any local knowledge of European markets, but if this is anywhere close to the truth, seems like the market would be very easy to game:
The European Power Market can be reformed by a child.
— Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦 (@agnostoxxx) August 30, 2022
I will explain.
First of all, lets be clear. European consumer is fked (>20% of salary on electricity?!). Basic industry is fked. The economy is fked.
Fked does not mean Apocalypse IF they take action.
1/n
"Market" Prices
With any market, including natgas in Europe, it's always tough to know how much of the current market price is legitimate vs speculation, how much is narrative, how much is fear (usually being pushed by people trying to front-run the market), how much is manipulation in a centralized market that is usually run by one or two big players (remember Enron manipulating prices in Calif), who has conflicts of interest, etc.
Forward prices of German electricity just halved in 2 days:
German 1y ahead Power Price has almost halved within 2 days from €1,050 per MWh to €545 today. This raises the question of who is operating in the electricity market. Is it pure speculation? Are these meaningful prices that reflect real scarcities? pic.twitter.com/1OyzB6uVZR
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 31, 2022
IDW I don't follow it super closely, but keeping an eye on it. Second quarter was expected to be down because there would not be any licensing income from the entertainment division. First quarter was .15 earnings.
They basically switched to a much less risky business model (at least in theory) From memory, they used to be trying to do everything themselves. They'd publish a comic or graphic novel, if something caught on and got hot they'd try and produce a show or movie themselves. Got deeply into debt. Now they've switched to more of a numbers game rather than bet everything on one big winner (and maybe lose big)
Outgoing CEO Ezra recently made two divisions: publishing and entertainment. Typical marketing funnel. The publishing side gets 500-1000 submissions from authors for new comics, graphic novels, etc. Out of this, they might publish 30 or 40 titles. The idea is for this business to roughly break even.
Of those titles that get published, maybe 4 or 5 gain enough popularity to make a TV series. This is the entertainment division. This is where most of the profit is made. They don't try to do it themselves, they license to a studio and take a licensing fee for overseeing the production regarding storyline, etc. Then out of those 4 or 5 maybe one becomes a movie and big fees as well.
This whole change only happened maybe last year and a half, I forget. It was expected to take a little time and be a little lumpy, plus some of the old deals were tailing off. But things seemed on track and Ezra was focused on profitability. I don't know if the approach will ultimately work, but it seemed logical. Now he's gone without much explanation.
IDW Anyone following this? A turnaround story and I liked the CEO, Ezra, and yesterday afternoon he got replaced with not much explanation. Seemed to be making good progress, many good deals, and an eye on the bottom line. Now he's gone.
Kind of worried about Howard Jonas's meddling.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/idw-media-announces-leader-next-203000396.html
Freeport Re-Start Pushed Back a Month
Well, now I'm kind of going back to my initial thoughts that we could have delay after delay on the re-start. Bottom line is I'll believe it only AFTER it actually happens. Just weeks ago the company said early October re-start. Now they say they ANTICIPATE a November re-start, but there could be construction delays, etc.:
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9749&intAcc_ID=77
No idea what's going to happen here
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that they are looking to do a good-sized acquisition. That's sort of how it sounded to me in the earnings call. They have all these tax losses available to be used, so they were kind of mulling their option of buybacks vs acquisition to use the tax losses. It sounded to me like they were leaning toward acquiring something. Then they filed the shelf. I'm guessing they're looking at buying something more expensive than the cash currently have (approx 200m).
Who knows, we'll see.
Again, I just want to be clear that I don't consider myself an expert in all these registrations, filings, etc.
Having said that, yes, I believe that's basically the SEC saying that the S-3 has now been "approved". Those various company names are all SD subsidiaries that were named in the S-3. I believe this is a normal way of doing it, so that it's all-inclusive if you want to do a transaction involving one of your subsidiary companies.
I believe the shelf registration is now effective for 3 years. Seems like I remember a time or circumstances when it was two years, but I believe it's now 3.
Freeport LNG situation
I hadn't checked on the status of Freeport in a while, but there are two interesting things that have occurred.
1) Contrary to what I was guessing, it looks like they have already reached a consent degree with the govt that will allow them to get back to near full operations EARLIER than expected. The reason? The story has changed to where it has now been determined that it was human error and not a faulty piece of equipment that caused the explosion. That led to . . . .
2) Force Majeure was apparently retracted in late June, something that went previously unreported. This may have added to the buying pressure for natgas in the futures market.
https://gcaptain.com/freeport-lng-set-to-restore-production-at-key-lng-export-facility-in-october-earlier-than-anticipated/
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Freeport-LNG-Retracts-Force-Majeure-Leaving-Buyers-On-The-Hook-For-8-Billion-I.html
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9748&intAcc_ID=77
Re Possible Closure of Cheniere LNG by EPA.
Listened to the latest earnings call for Cheniere and the CEO said he still thinks their equipment should be exempt. Says they're working with EPA and giving input. He said that even if they are not deemed to be in compliance he thinks they should be able to come up with a workable solution that won't have a material impact on their earnings or production.
-So that's sounding better. Maybe he's just overconfident, we'll see. But if anything, for legal reason CEOs are usually very cautious on calls, so he must think the EPA is coming around. This would be good news cuz it could crush natgas prices here in the US if Cheniere closed. Much bigger than Freeport.
If anyone wants to listen to that section for yourself, you can forward to 12:23 in the earnings call here and the EPA portion runs about 2 minutes:
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1559360&tp_key=4ac7ac2c5a
Single stock Tesla and Apple ETFs
Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but noticed some new tickers showing on the new high list. Turns out, Direxion now has a single stock ETF for both Tesla and Apple. Can go 1.5x long or 1x short on either stock. Not sure what that says about the market, but it's a way to go short or use leverage in an IRA:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/direxion-launches-first-apple-and-tesla-single-stock-leveraged-and-inverse-etf-pairs-301601800.html
Oops, made an error. PRPH Q2 was .40 diluted, .48 undiluted. So TTM is 1.50
PRPH (11.90) Excellent 2nd quarter. Made .48 vs (.09) last year. This was without govt reimbursement for testing. TTM earnings now $1.58
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/prophase-labs-PRPH/stock-news/88815548/prophase-labs-announces-record-second-quarter-2022
HKD also down almost 50% today. High of this craziness was over $2,500, now it's at $212 and almost certainly headed to below $5