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Out YM's PLUS 1100+ Pts/x$5/Contract:)))))))))))))))))))))))))
Ringing the register in all three Lang,I'll post in the am what I have left in the let it ride game:) Cheers talk in the am this is my last post allowed for today:(
Thanks option,I'm going to take some profits tomorrow,Time to take a deep breath and ring the register and see where this market is going. 100 more points and we are in an official crash,We are only 100 points from an official stock market crash from October 11th, 2007, a 15 percent decline over a few months. The small cap Russell 200 index is down 20 percent over the past few months, already a crash.
Here is a good analysis of what will happen over the next few weeks imo.
There is a really good chance the decline from December 11th will end no later than Friday, perhaps tomorrow, right around our next scheduled phi mate turn date. The coming rally is likely a wave 2 bounce, which will last a few weeks, and set up perhaps the worst fall of this six month Bear market, the worst decline in six years. We have identified a Bullish Descending Wedge pattern, which is a termination pattern, for wave {5} of 1 down, and it looks to only need another 100 to 150 point decline to finish. We could see that over the next day or two, which would place wave 1's bottom within a day or so of our January 18th +/- phi mate turn date, which is essentially any time now. With a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Wednesday, that could mean one more strong decline over the next few days, one that could possibly be reversed intraday, so be nimble fellow traders. Thus this next phi mate date would be the bottom for the move from December 11th's wave ii top, a nearly 1,500 point decline. No guarantees, but this is how it looks to us Wednesday evening. The next rally should be tradable, six hundred or more DJIA points.
Still, the VIX continues to bother us. It is calling for a stock market plunge, maybe as bad as a crash, starting over the next month or so. Before that event, the VIX symmetrical triangle is suggesting we should see a rally that takes the VIX to around the 20.00 level, probably a two week +/- affair. That would be where the next huge decline would begin.
YM'sUp 1000+pts,X short Up90%,TXN short UP 125%:))))))))
Hope you guys are enjoying the ride as much as I am,What a week. It's Great in 08! This makes Pats game on Sunday look even better, Go Pats!
These Girls WILL NOT be wearing this uniform on Sunday,forcast for single digit temps, Thats gotta hurt the Bolts:)))
TXN Short ready to CRUMBLE:)We having FUN yet Guys????????????
YM short now +800Pts:)X$5/Contract,GREAT in 08!
Monday gave Everyone time to short X,Lets go 4 a RIDE:))))))))
I Loved this article,timing couldn't have been better for our X puts,should be a sweet profitable ride. How bout them Pats:)
Duferco predicts slowdown in steel industry
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22bf340a-bfa6-11dc-8052-0000779fd2ac.html
Hi Brig,Hope all is well. That FHAT Matt has me limited to 3 posts per day and here I thought this was a stock picking site,IHUB is pathetic, different opinions are not welcomed. People actually pay to post,amazing. As always my best to you and family and my thoughts of Good Fortune to you.
My X puts got HIT Today:)In,3.11+24%ONE DAY:)))))))))))))))
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25931724
My X puts got HIT Today:)In,3.11+24%ONE DAY:)))))))))))))))
It was a B E A Utiful Day today! Hope some of you followed and made Bank:) Man what a call, 2 days ago said wait till X hits 110,which it did then we POUNCED! X will get CRUSHED with the Market and we are holding a BOATLOAD of April 85 puts with an Average entry of 3.11. Closed @ 3.90 today:)
Hey it's GREAT in 08! BTW, My YM Swing +(650 pts.X $5/ Contract) Put THATin your calculator FAT MATT LOL!!!!!
P.S. Has that Phat Pig Matt called any stock winners lately? This site is a TOTAL JOKE! Hope you guys don't pay to post and read. Alas as many of you know FAT MATT only allows me 3 posts per day on a STOCK PICKING SITE because he doesn't like my politics. You guys who pay are getting SCREWED.
My wishes of Good Fortune and Health to all here on this board. GO PATS
Wonder can you post a VIX chart,here is the analysis. BTW, someone is going to jail for insider trading on CFC today. Funny thing I was in the Banc of America Investment office today here just outside of Boston. VP I was with never said a word,Grrrrrrrrrrrrr......
Nice two day bounce as I predicted, I am SALIVATING over an X put entry. Cheers my friend.
The VIX continues to follow the path annotated earlier this week, finishing a nasty multi-month Symmetrical Triangle pattern, with horrid prospects for the stock market over the next 4 to 6 months. The direction that an index traveled prior to this particular triangle pattern occurring is almost always the direction that the index will travel leaving the pattern. Because the pattern is large, we believe the VIX is headed much higher, perhaps into the 40's. It currently sits around 23.00. The VIX moves inversely to stocks. A sharply rising VIX means sharply diving stocks.
Short-term, the VIX pattern needs to drop to about the 19.00 to 20.00 area, which should represent the end of the current rally. This could likely occur late next week, around our coming phi mate turn date. Two enjoyable rally days are over, and every second of the next week's move must be appreciated.
It would appear we are in the midst of a stock market crash that started at 14,200 in the Dow Industrials in October 2007, and is likely to continue to at least 11,500 during the first half of 2008. It could go lower. That target comes from a confirmed Bearish Head & Shoulders Top pattern. No guarantees, but risk is higher than normal over the next several months.
Wonder Great Charts Thanks:) X The Fibs tell me to pull my put trigger around 110,lets see what tomorrow brings:) This Beast will get CRUSHED on the next leg down which is imminent imho. I already called a return to 110 2 days ago however Grasshopper says be Patient! I will enter my 1st X put position in short time and I will post it here 1st. Even though IHUB only allows me 3 posts/day. PHUCK FAT MATT.
TXN long range puts in place I am NOT WORRIED my friend. 6 BAGGER on the Jan. puts:))))))))))))) and my April puts are getting JIGGY!:)) BTW How do you like my swing?
Cheers everyone what a GREAT start to 08! It's GREAT in 08! TO BAD I'CANT POST MORE THAT 3/DAY ON A STOCK SITE[/B/]
U GUYS DON'T PAY TO BE HERE DO YOU???????????[/B]
Kerry is still an idiot! Check out this link:))))))))))))))
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25898927
Wonder my X prediction 110 is here n <2 days:)I am ready after my bounce call proved to be correct. This Beast will crash and burn IMHO. Hey has anyone seen that Fat Pig Matt call anything lately? To bad I only have 3 posts per day:( It HAS BEEN GREAT IN 08 SO FAR MY FRIENDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cheers and Good Fortune to all hope everyone is cashing tickets as I am:))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Wonder I'ld like to enter as close to 110 as possible then I'll look at strike areas. Another bounce up due to the Plunge Protection Team should set us up nicely. Another sharp leg down and all boats will fall in a lowering tide. Demand for steel will weaken(buliding/auto etc...)
Can't wait till TXN breaks 30. I'm Ready:) Cheers my friend
Wonder, looking at an Option play on X. After the next bounce up I plan on moving into a significant put position and ride that monster down. Wish I was around earlier today to catch that bounce for an opening position, Ah Patience Grasshopper! Hope all is well, Cheers
YM short swing now up 650 Pts x $5/contract,Analysis of recent action is as follows. This could get Very ugly however we are in a good position here.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25840495
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25441749
YM short swing now up 650 Pts x $5/contract,Analysis of recent action is as follows. This could get Very ugly however we are in a good position here.
Clarity. We can now eliminate the Bullish Triangle, as prices fell decisively below what would have been the bottom boundary. Also, Tuesday's decline gives us a downside confirmation between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transportation averages, both closing below their November lows. We now believe there is a downside target of at least 11,500ish on the Dow Industrials. Today we have seen new closing lows for the Bear Market that started in July 2007. This is getting ugly. The VIX charts included in Tuesday's Newsletter to subscribers are in sync with this latest development, also suggesting we are going much lower during the first half of 2008. The higher ! the VIX, the more fear, which comes from declines. In the short run, there should be a bottom soon that leads to a 300 point +/- countertrend rally before another sharp decline.
This suggests we are in the midst of a stock market crash that started at 14,200 in October 2007, and is likely to continue to at least 11,500 the first half of 2008.
One of our best indicators has been the Plunge Protection Team Risk Indicator, the PPT Indicator. Whenever this reading rises above positive + 20.00, or falls to below negative -16.00, we usually see multi-week rallies. Declines can (don't have to) occur when this reading falls within the range of negative -16.00 to positive + 20.00. It was in this zone from the top back in early October until November 12th, during the recent decline. The PPT Indicator has been in the range where declines typically occur, between negative -16.00 and positive + 20.00 for most of the decline from late December, which has seen the DJIA drop over 1,100 points. Tuesday, the PPT indicator was negative -2.16.
As I stated yesterday,sold my Jan.30 TXN puts for an easy 6 bagger,still holding quite a few April 27.50 TXN puts. Going to 28 IMHO is a safe estimate. Cheers and as always Good Fortune to all.
Just cashed my TXN lottery ticket,In @ .10 out @ .65,Nice way to start the week. Still holding TXN April 18 27.50 puts,as I look they are up 50% now. Cheers.
Why pay,just take your 18 free posts and be on your way. Is it really worth your hard earned $$$ when these admin's throw out the rules and limit those who simply have a different viewpoint. Bottom line I MAKE $$$$$,most posters here are sheep and only wish to have a stepford community. My best to you and family lang whatever you decide. IMHO take the subscription fee and take your wife out to a nice dinner:)
Lang,Who would delete my MONEY MAKING POSTS? IHUB IS TERRIBLE,whoever pays this fool is an idiot,CHEERS:)))))))))))
Brain Ask FATT matt,makeing $$$$$$$$$ was the purpose of this pathetic site I thought,supressing differing political ideas is more important than making $$$$$$ I guess. Anyone who pays this joke of a site simply to post to strangers is a fool. Check out my few posts the past couple months then ask yourself why is FATT matt limiting somneone who is making $$$$$$$$$$$$. Quite large returns BTW. Cheers Brain and as always good fortune to you and family.
Eye,My plays lately,UP HUGE!LINK:)))))))))))))))))
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25751871
Eye made BIG $$ so far past 2 weeks,You on board? Link
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25721418
My TXN puts up another 50% today,Wow!Jan.18 30,What a ticket. Also I am holding a Very Substantial position on the TXN Apr 18 27.50 puts which are coiled and up 27% already! GREAT in 08 Baby! Jan. 30 puts my lottery ticket up 150% in a matter of weeks. Hey has fat matt given out any stock picks that have made REAL $$$ lately or has he just collected subscription fees? LOL!
BTW, My YM short swing trade holding here at + 200 and then some:)
My YM shorts now up 210 points after a tough hold,still feel great about a very profitable trade on those, wish I had added during the run up:( Can't emphasize how much I love my TXN shorts here going forward. Snuck in a handful of Jan.08 30 puts @ .08 few weeks back that are now a double,I'll be cashing those in very soon. Cheers to all and a prosperous and Blessed New Years to you all.
P.S. If anyone sees Fat matt tell him I said hello, this is a stock info site right?
My TXN(Lottery Ticket)Puts on the move:) What a way to begin the GREAT 08!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And the Down move in TXN happened with the beloved volume to boot:)
Wonder check out this analysis of TXN and "tech". BTW I am not worried about my YM short swing trade in fact any bump here on weak vol. will have me adding to my short position. I am like Pavloves Dogs right about now. Late day move up imho has very little vol. to support it over time "Grasshopper":)
So why do companies keep choosing to IPO now, despite tough pricing conditions? Because there is a predominant fear that market conditions will worsen in the coming months.
For the tech market, it saw a nice rally back in August, but tech stocks remain volatile and will mostly likely suffer more than other sectors if the economy continues to deteriorate. Major firms like IDC and Forrester Research will cut technology budgets from 6.5% to 5.1% in 2008. A survey of CIOs by Goldman Sachs found “decelerating spending growth” by their departments.
Also, oil is again on the rise. Technology stocks generally benefit from a drop in crude prices on a fundamental basis. This connection has to do with institutions investing a percentage of their assets in high beta stocks, so when they sell off energy, they replace it with technology, and vice versa. In an energy boom, the institutions rotate out those tech stocks.
Oil prices matter to semiconductor companies, according to the CEO of National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE), because of the enormous amount of energy it takes to run data centers and global networks.
Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) had an after market rally on Monday, following its mid-quarter update on earnings. However, the market does not look good for tech or semiconductors, which are responsible for 50% of TXN’s business.
But this announcement only minutely beat out analysts’ downgraded estimates for TXN. TXN continues to perform as a middle of the road stock with stagnant revenue and growth numbers. Texas Instruments posted third quarter earnings of $0.52 against $0.45 a year ago, despite slight revenue decline.
It narrowed its fourth quarter EPS of $0.48-$0.54 to $0.50-$0.54 on revenue of $3.60-$3.68 billion.
Due to Infineon Technologies (IFX:NYSE) being unable to complete their orders to Nokia, the company has been forced to use more wireless chips from Texas Instruments. This short-term gain has helped shore up fourth quarter earnings, but for early 2008 the outlook is less rosy.
Investors are unsure of TXN right now because the company is only maintaining its stance in analog devices, and has lost ground in wireless chips.
But earlier in the year TXN lost bids to Nokia (NOK:NYSE) and Sony Ericsson (ERIC:NASDAQ), as those two cell phone companies decided to convert to a multi-supplier approach. In October, analysts downgraded the stock as a result of this. However, the full losses have not been calculated in yet.
Looking at the two year chart for Texas Instruments in both February 2006 and 2007 the stock hit a $28 low, and then felt a bounce. We expect the stock to hit this lower resistance point before we exit our position.
And despite this week’s news, TXN has been unable to close above $33, which marks the upper line of resistance.
I GOT HIT ON A TON OF ARPIL 27.50 PUTS TODAY @ .47. NOW THAT IS A LOTTERY TICKET WAITING TO BE CASHED:))))))))))))
Wonder my YM shorts got hit today @ 13350,VERY Pleased. TXN puts am still looking for an entry.1/2 my COH puts were hit today right after the open @ 1.50 for a very nice 50% gain. Still holding 1/2 looking to make them beg:) Your DIA puts will be a $$ maker going forward as I see another leg down for the market. I heard a radio report that cash sales are way up and credit cards sales are way down. This does not bowed well for retail and consumer spending. Housing crisis won't let middle america refinance again,pay the bills and really not increase mgt. Increase Equity gone,easy credit gone,retail in trouble. Cheers my friend,keep up the good work.
The next few days could prove to be a fascinating prognosticator for 2008. The major point gleaned from Wednesday's price action is that a large price move is coming over the next day or two. We get this information from the McClellan Oscillator, which had a very small move on Wednesday, falling 1.44 points. Small changes in the M.O. usually mean large price moves are imminent. This particular indicator does not tell us which direction the large price move will take, so we have to lean upon other indicators for clues as to direction. Friday is options expiration day, which is normally bullish. That doesn't mean we can't see a large decline Thursday, then a rebound Frida! y. The Elliott wave counts look like they are finishing small degree wave fours, which would suggest the large move will be down.
Why is this significant? Because a large move down could take prices decisively below the neckline of the small Head & Shoulders top shown at the bottom of page 13 in tonight's report to subscribers. If prices drop decisively below 13,100, to say 13,000, that would suggest a downside target of 12,500ish, below the 12,724 neckline for the larger H&S pattern shown at the top of page 13, suggesting a coming confirmation of the larger H&S top pattern, which means the probability of reaching its minimum downside target of 11,500ish becomes quite high.
So amazingly, what this says is we could get large price drop to 13,000 over the next few days, setting off a high probability chain of events that leads to a move down to 11,500ish. It is possible for H&S top patterns to fail, and even possible for confirmed tops to fail, however the odds are not good once confirmed that they will fail. Bulls better hope the large price move coming is up.
If the large move is up, it could be the middle move of an a-down, b-up, c-down for wave e down to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern of larger degree shown at the top of page 14. To be honest, that scenar! io looks solid, based upon the pattern, so we really are at a major crossroads as 2007 comes to a close. A decisive drop below 12,900 would eliminate the Minor degree wave 4 triangle, since that would be below the bottom boundary, and this pattern requires a breakout north, not south.
Hot next trade give yourself more time buying options further out. Giving yourself only a few weeks to expiration date is a real gamble. Imo with additional time the trade won't be as volatile and will give you more time to move into the money. That is what happened in a recent trade of mine with COH puts,I was under water but had the time in the trade to wait it out. Cheers and Good Fortune my friend
I have a new trade I will enter in the a.m. wonder
TXN Jan. 30 puts and the
TXN April 30 puts. I will post my entries.
With that I will also go to the well again and short the YM's.My last swing trade in the YM's produced well over 500 pts. captured.
in our Daily Market report to subscribers, we show two charts, each with a potential Head & Shoulders top in formation, both Bearish. Neither are confirmed yet, however it would not take much more decline to set off a domino effect that would produce a high probability that we hit 11,500ish over the next 3 to 6 months in the Dow Industrials.
The bottom Head & Shoulders pattern is the first to worry about. It has essentially formed during the month of December. It only requires a small decline, to below 13,100ish (say to 13,000) for a confirmation of the pattern to occur. What does a confirmation mean? It means the probability of the minimum downside target being hit is pretty high. The downside target on that pattern is 12,500ish.
Why is that significant? Because it takes prices decisively below the neckline of the larger Head & Shoulders top shown at the top of the same page. If prices drop decisively below 12,724, then we get confirmation of this larger H&S top pattern, which means the probability of reaching its minimum downside target of 11,500ish becomes quite high.
So amazingly, what this says is a price drop to 13,000 should set off a high probability chain of events that leads to a move down to 11,500ish. It is possible for H&S top patterns to fail, and even possible for confirmed tops to fail, however the odds are not good once confirmed that they will fail.
Tuesday's rally looks like a small degree wave {iv} up, meaning another sharp downleg is coming. If so, we should hit that 13,000 level. Bulls must hope that the Symmetrical Triangle pattern of larger degree (shown at the top of page 14) is unfolding from July 2007. To be honest, that scenario looks solid, based upon the pattern, so we really are at a major crossroads as 2007 comes to a close. A decisive drop! below 12,900 would eliminate the Minor degree wave 4 triangle, since that would be below the bottom boundary, and this pattern requires a breakout north, not south.
Had to wait but my COH puts looking sweet,waiting for $29. Cheers, Good Fortune and a Merry Christmas to all on this board.
Covered YM's@ 286 Plus 30 on those.G'day all SWEET!
Covered 1/2 at 300 Plus 16 pts.
Short YM's 316
Cindy Lauper and Ray charles my Favs in this link:)Lets start giving help to all investors on this thread:)))) Oh did I forget "Little Stevie Wonder"!
Stocks rose sharply Tuesday, and we saw the first signs that a multi-week bottom is either in, or very close, as both of our key trendfinder indicators for the NASDAQ 100 generated a new "buy" signal. These are momentum indicators. We await a "buy" on the weekly Full Stochastics indicator, which would come once the Fast measure rises above the Slow. We also are watching for an early warning of a "buy" signal in the weekly MACD, which would come once the negative histograms start to shrink. The chart on page 10 in tonight's Daily Market Newsletter for subscribers shows the rising trend-channel from July 2006 for the NASDAQ 100 has held, and its Full Stochastics look very close to rolling up. The Weekly Full Stochastics for the Dow Industrials also look very close! to rolling up. There are seasonal positive tendencies kicking in now, markets finding themselves in the "good" six months, from November through May, and the typical month-end and year-end positive bias is approaching. Volume was up on Tuesday's rally, which is also a positive. If a multi-week rally is starting, we expect it to be corrective of the decline from July 2007. What we need to see now is high volume, upside follow-through to convince us that the wave a down of 2 down bottom is in.
The Industrials rallied nicely, up 215.00 points Tuesday, closing at 12,958.44, the exact - to the penny - close we saw last Monday, November 19th. The decline that is finishing from October 11th is just the first of three legs for Intermediate wave 2 down, Minor degree wave "a" down. Once wave 2 b! ottoms, probably in the first half of 2008, a huge rally will follow. That rally will not be economic prosperity-driven, but purely hyperinflationary, as stocks become a defensive strategy against out-of-control devaluation of the dollar. Folks will buy companies as if they were hard assets. Confirmation that an intermediate-term rally has started would come when both Trannies and the Industrials hit new all-time highs. Now that we have a Dow Theory Primary Sell signal, very likely Intermediate wave 2 correction is going to be much deeper than anticipated. Wave 1 rose almost 7000 points from October 9th, 2002, so that allows for quite a deep correction for 2 down. A Fib 38.2 percent retrace would take the DJIA down to 11,525ish.
My last YM short now UP 1440 Pts! $5/Contract:)))))))))))))
Good,12845 is now officially breached,alalysis follows.
Friday saw a nice rally, but because it was on extremely weak holiday volume, we cannot gleam too much from it. Yes we are very due for a multi-week bottom, so yes, this could be the start of the next multi-week rally. We will need to see strong upside follow-through next week to conclude a Santa rally is starting. Meanwhile, we sit in the first Bear Market since 2000 through 2002. We got an official Dow Theory Primary Trend Bear Market Signal on Wednesday, November 21st, 2007, the day before Thanksgiving. Amazing. This is the first Dow Theory Primary Trend Bear Market Signal since September 23rd, 1999.
But back then, the true impact of the Bear Market signal was not felt until several months later. In fact, from September 23rd, 1999's close at 10,318.59, the Dow Industrials rose 1,404.39 points over the next three and a half months to an all-time high of 11,722.98 on January 14th, 2000. It was then that the Bear market in stocks began, four months after the Dow Theory Primary Trend Bear Market signal. What followed was a two and three/quarter year Bear market that saw the Industrials plunge a Fibonacci 38 percent, to 7,181.47 on October 10th, 2002.
Since we got a phi mate turn date top on October 9th, 2007, the Dow Industrials have fallen 1,378.50 points, or 9.73 percent. Since we got the first of our latest 9 observation Hindenburg Omen, the Dow Industrials have fallen 1,126.90 points, or 8.09 percent.