full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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XLE chart indicates challenges for Oil companies
Coooold weather be dippin' down from Canucker land. May help gas stocks.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrenttemperatures_large.html/?par=a...
OT: Nice video here about daytrading...
John Carter is talking about his daytrading technique. Interesting stuff, particularly for those of us playing with Value Microcaps (more volatile than most) ...
Focus is on structure and consistency ... using stops to protect yourself (though not possible on OTCBB stocks) ... also discusses shorting clearly ...
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1622690
Excellent point by BrianB that ASPN mgt appears to be investing ASPN funds in PR support to further their own personal gains.
"Power corrupts"
I wish we could evaluate the risk associated with the oil well they will be starting in the next few weeks. An oil well that produces 1000-3000 bbl/day would substantially boost the stock price for sure.
I did add ASPN this morning at 5.30 myself due to high expectations for their oil well and further gas production increases this spring-summer. It's a big year for ASPN, but the hard thing to do is quantify risk/reward.
Somewhat OT: The Inverted Yield Curve Implies Economic Slowdown
The inverted yield curve implication is that the economy may head into recession in future (or at least into economic slowdown), but current numbers and momentum shows a strong economy. He also says high oil prices may add to inflation and cool the economy over time, and the higher interest rates are already cooling the housing market. Bernanke has implied that further interest rate increases may be ahead if significant price increases (inflation) from energy costs get passed along. Anyway, here is a graph of the inverted yield curve which shows you get more interest if you buy a 2yr vs 10yr bond.
http://www.briefing.com/common/images/content/pagecontent/BondMarketUpdate/20060216110226Yield210.jp...
News of stock selling plans of ASPN managers probably isn't helping today. I expect ASPN to move higher with news of progress on their oil well in about a month. Until then I expect it to flop around between 5 and 5.75 as gas prices move up and down.
JMHO
Thanks, Bobwins and 10bagger, for your perspectives on improved reporting ethics (vs. 10 yrs ago) for the Canadian JRs.
HYE.v chart was looking like the flight path of a wounded pigeon after dropping nearly 50% from its high of 1.68$C 3weeks ago.
I'm still holding CZE.v (Choice) and SHY.v (Sharon) but in the back of my mind, I keep remembering some of the money I lost in Canadian stocks about 10-15 yrs ago.
Inasmuch as you (and others here) still may have a large investment in Canadian Jrs, do you ever get concerned that Canada's (less rigid) reporting requirements might cause you to be more "at risk" than you think?
My rough risk assessment (or maybe just prejudice) is that Canadian Jrs are somewhere between US pink sheets and OTCBBs.
Bob, thanks for the nice summary of ASPN earnings ahead.
The CEOcast interview was an excellent summary of drilling plans, including the high-potential oil well (15,000ft)that commences in March. That "high-potential" oil well will be an interesting event, as it is also probably "higher risk".
Cohan also spoke of their hedge program which has allowed their current Q3 gas price to stay above the market, however that hedge program (30% of production hedged at avg $9.24 vs. current $7.18/MMBtu market price) ends in March, so there is some probability that your Q4 estimate (based on avg $8) is just a little high (or low, depending on the weather).
ASPN's drilling program for spring-summer commences immediately after the winter drilling program, and it sounds like it will be as active as ever.
Good news for all natgas longs:
Very cold weather now dipping in from the north, so it looks like ASPN price has an excellent chance to move higher from here.
Oil and Oil Services continue selling off!
... CFK down another .50 today
... MCX down another .30 today
... TGA down $1 in the last week
... EGY down $1.50 in the last week
Adding insult to injury, VPHM's down another $1 today...
Anybody have a strong stock in a strong sector they can recommend today?
Microcap feeling like microcrap today. Maybe there are now just too many hedgefunds and major brokers dealing in the microcap arena for us to have the same opportunities we had a year ago.
patentlawmeister, the ZNCM fundamentals do look pretty strong, including profitability and mkt cap less than annual revs. Are you in ZNCM yourself, and (if you have done some DD yourself) what are your personal thoughts on ZNCM? Thanks in advance.
Wade, nice CFK call this morning. Another one I like is UNT, larger than CFK but also in oil services with fast growth and low PE. Continued good luck!!!!
Note that UNT has also recently corrected 18% off the highs about 2 wks ago.
The month of FEB has been a stinker so far. Energy has been steadily down.... XLE volume has been growing as index has continued down.
Oh, BTW, it's been bad for ALL commodities. Gold, copper, and platinum down a hunk today.
CNBC just had a short piece on commodities trending down.
Keeping fingers crossed for a bounce...
Gee!!! Wish I'd shorted ERS ... down $3 today on small volume.
Thanks, if I could only read ...
Regards,
ForrestGump-peeker
IAIC had a "recovery credit" in Q3 that provided ALL of their earnings, so things are not necessarily as wonderful as the Q3 eps would indicate. Also, they noted they are in M&A discussions with various firms, so they may be fixing to risk a lot with a merger or purchase of another company.
Excerpts from 3Q PR below:
"Third quarter profit in 2004 included a $290,000 recovery of previously owed money from prior years. Accordingly, our operating profit has substantially increased from third quarter 2004," said Sandor Rosenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of IAI. "We expect fourth quarter results to be comparable to or better than third quarter.
"We still are in merger and acquisition discussions with a number of firms and hope to complete a transaction in the future."
VPHM news ... FDA fasttracks Mirabavir antiviral drug.
OT: Top 17 Country Songs ...
17. I Hate Every Bone In Her Body But Mine
16. It's Hard To Kiss The Lips At Night That Chewed Your Ass Out All Day Long
15. If I Can't Be Number One In Your Life, Then Number Two On You
14. If The Phone Don't Ring, You'll Know It's Me
13. How Can I Miss You If You Won't Go Away?
12. I Liked You Better Before I Got To Know You So Well
11. I Still Miss You Baby, But My Aim's Getting Better
10. I Wouldn't Take Her To A Dogfight 'Cause I'm Afraid She'd Win
9. I'll Marry You Tomorrow But Let's Honeymoon Tonight
8. I'm So Miserable Without You, It's Like You're Still Here
7. If I Had Shot You When I First Wanted To, I'd Be Out Of Prison By Now
6. My wife Ran Off With My Best Friend And I Sure Do Miss Him
5. She Got The Ring and I Got The Finger
4. You're The Reason Our Kids Are So Ugly
3. Her Teeth Was Stained But Her Heart Was Pure
2. She's Looking Better After Every Beer
.... and the Number One song is:
1. I Ain't Never Gone To Bed With an Ugly Woman....., But I've Sure Woke Up With A Few !!!
R59, I agree with the risks and would not recommend shorting on the way UP, but rather on the way DOWN, as Newton's laws of gravity pertain even to IBD100 leaders (eventually).
The suggestion is to keep an eye on it and look for a precipitous fall. If it starts, the chart could resemble a bungee jump (especially if the fall is precipitated by negative news, such as insider selling or revenues guided lower).
Regards,
'peeker
PS. Probably doesn't matter much, as I'm already hearing ERS shares are not available for shorting. This, to me, means that the shorties have already taken their positions, and maybe that's what is driving it higher, that is, shorts that are covering today.
CGHI put out another PR this morning to generate a good move and above average volume. Does anyone here still believe in this little CGHI company? As for me, I've just unloaded my shares this morning.
ERS is overextended here and is not a safe buy at this level. It was at top of some sort of IBD100 list this morning, I believe. It cannot stay there forever, but it has the momos behind it for now.
Keep your eyes peeled, as a good shorting opportunity may present itself as soon as the momos run out of steam.
eMachines is now owned by Gateway, by the way.
GFCI is not the only stock trading crazy today. Others I've been watching are IDWD.pk, MOVI, CYD, SUF, ERS, XWG. Lots of volatility in these microcap-smallcap stocks, which often infers market topping.
BGH spread is .13, so not really a "great" move.
RITT, .09 diluted for the year is not good news. Last qtr .01 diluted was below estimate of .02eps
Koz, you need to be enrolled in one of those Federal programs for monitoring S*Xual Deviates in elevators.
IDWD.pk ($.45) really moving today ... up over 180%
I have a small (long-term) position in DAAT.
Short-term:
Due to disappointing revs in '05, DAAT Q4 and '05 full-yr earnings will probably disappoint as well. The market will need to respond to the official earnings announcement before the next buying opportunity. It appears to be safe here around 2.20, but it could drop below $2 when earnings are released to officially disappoint us.
The new products to be shown at upcoming show should get some PR, but I doubt new product announcements can overcome the concern about reduced earnings growth for '06.
Long-term:
DAAT needs another major new product (that sells well in WMT and sporting goods stores) to get out of the gun-cleaning-kit doldrums. Any new product will need to be in the sporting goods channel to be cost-effective with the existing sales channels. Due to DAAT location in Arkansas (not fer frum WMT), their sales will remain very dependent on a strong relationship with WMT.
OT: Kozuh, you musta had a great CanadianJR yr in '05
Kozuh, Bob ain't gonna invite you over to do to his living room what you do to elevators.
OT: EPEX downgrade:
09:09 EPEX Edge Petroleum downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ferris Baker Watts on valuation; tgt $30 (33.17 )
Rogue, check out Portfolio123.com site. They have a free service (or you can pay for enhancements). They provide good access to research and your own custom portfolios (they may limit the number of personal portfolios for free service).
Excellent fundamental filters, and you can test their effectiveness using the last 4 yrs of market data.
They also provide various portfolios (several largecap, midcap, smallcap, etc). It's worth checking out for sure. My brother uses it pretty successfully as someone who is not able to watch the market continuously.
Advantage is that you can set up a certain portfolio filter and set it to "balance" every week or month if you like. Supposedly, one of the best things it provides is a way to reduce the personal pressure on buy and sell decisions, that is, the filters, tell you when a new stock meets the criteria and when a stock in your portfolio is weakening.
Even JC now recommending GG...
source: this morning's news on Yahoo for GG.
Good discussion of CZE.v potential for breakout or sitting still for awhile. I was impressed by the details mentioned in the "outlook" section of the PR. Regarding your comment on warrants expiring, the PR may be extremely optimistic to get the warrants "overhang" exercised and out of the way:
"Outlook
The Company has made plans for an active winter drilling season. Up to nine wells will be drilled in the Snipe/Wallace area and two high potential impact wells in new areas will also be drilled this winter, with Choice holding an average working interest of 50%. Unseasonably warm weather caused a delay with the commencement of this activity but exploration activities are well under way at the time of this report.
A 3D seismic program in the Viking area was completed during the third quarter and 7 to 15 wells will be drilled by the end of February. These wells are targeting Viking and several Mannville exploration targets with an average working interest of 85%.
Our exploration play inventory continues to grow. Over the next 12 to 15 months Choice has put in place a program to drill up to 55 gross wells and 30 net wells with a capital budget of $33 million. This budget will be split 1/3 for exploration activities and 2/3 for development activities. Acquisitions and farm-ins are a key focus as Choice makes the transition from a "value" story to a "growth" story.
Results to date continue to be excellent. Underlying asset values are beginning to be realized and several new plays are being tested to provide the potential for significant growth opportunities. Over the past two years debt has decreased significantly, the play inventory has increased to over 18 prospects and market capitalization has increased by over $30 million. It has been an excellent year thus far and management looks forward to reporting continued success as we enter the fourth quarter."
XWG news ... nice new contract award, up 12%
Hey, I suggest if you get the subcontract for breast exams, you might just reknickname yourself SpongeBoob SquareBreast... LOL...
Briefing.com LiveInPlay commentary
EPEX downgrade and high inventory numbers could push EPEX back down today.
... currently down 4% premkt today on downgrade
08:28 EPEX Edge Petroleum downgraded to Hold from Buy at Matrix (33.77
I had no trouble adding shares at .30 today.
SHEYF.pk (SHY.v) has drifted lower lately, so I started worrying about it again. After reviewing the recent news releases, I'm feeling pretty comfortable about the potential for a strong move by the end of March if 2 wells come in big for them (and if natgas doesn't fall too far from current levels).
Dickson#2 (25.3% interest):
Sharon Energy is currently drilling a wildcat Dickson#2 to target depth of 17,000', but this will not complete til late March. It is located less than half a mile from Dickson#1 which is producing 3.8 MMcf/day, however, #2 is targeting a deeper pool of natgas than Dickson#1.
Hancock#2 (14% interest):
Recently drilled to 17.000' and is currently being prepared to run production casing. Hancock#2 encountered the same gas zones currently being produced in the Hancock #1 well. In addition, the well logged a number of potentially productive gas zones both shallower and deeper than the current field development zones. All of these zones have been evaluated using a full suite of electric logs. Further details on this well are being held confidential at this time. Note: Someone previously commented here on the VMC board that perhaps the "confidentiality" was to allow them to get more drilling rights in adjacent areas.
Of course SHEYF.pk came to us thru our $channel, Bobwins. I'm hoping he's right about it and holding Sharon tightly for now.
Yes, AAV was recommended by Tobin Smith's ChangeWave newsletter.
email me if you want to see what he said...
stockpeeker@gmail.com