watching biotechs, gold & silver
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"... VOS showed very significant improvements over Restasis after 4 weeks of treatment."
This is key and makes yesterday's market reaction seem insane, as VOS performed better in less than 28 days than the 3 FDA approved DES drugs Restasis, Cequa and Xiidra perform after 3 months of administration!!!
I comprehend the lack of trust re Israeli biotech's, but why the apparent knock on Vancouver???
Truly a world gone mad.
Excellent synopsis of Aurinia's DES presentation yesterday:
From "Endpoints News" article titled "Aurinia eye drug falls short in improving tolerability versus Restasis, but beats on efficacy."
https://endpts.com/aurinia-shares-tumble-as-their-eye-drug-fails-a-phii-head-to-head-with-restasis/
Luna, re the "plan moving forward".
During the Q&A, analyst Doug Miehm from RBC Capital markets asked, "Richard, when are next trials, how will they be constructed?".
Dr. Glickman's response was the next step will be a larger trial size and a longer duration (3 months), different dosages, going to try to improve data, you will see a rapid advancement of this program, etc.
RG further stated on the call that within several months Aurinia will fully develop and reveal their new VOS plans.
His excitement over these results was palpable, which makes the market's negative reaction all the more puzzling to me.
I'm wondering what a potential DES blockbuster is worth considering Restasis going off patent, generics coming, etc.???
It's like Deja Vu all over again. Market reaction seems a bit like the release of their LN P2 where the market crashed because it did not comprehend the excellent results.
Unfortunately I was unaware of AUPH then so I missed the incredible opportunity many of you had the guts and smarts to take advantage of.
And it also looks like the gift of another AUPH price drop is already over, and the price never even got anywhere close to going to crash levels.
I wonder how long before the market gets the magnitude of how great the VOS results were?
Even a couple of analysts on the call were confused and thought it was a failure.
GLTA
"....who will develop it and market it."
My likely candidates list include: Allergan Merck Mylan Novartis Shire.
Multiple majors should be happy to acquire this drug- looks like a lock!
No wonder Dr. Glickman and company are excited.
My question is: "What $$$ amount will Aurinia wind up selling it for?"
Comprehensive Aurinia article recently published in "Kidney International",
which is "The Official Journal of the International Society of Nephrology (ISN)".
Dated January 2019, it contains lots of Voclosporin (VCS) info- well worth a read (or two).
https://www.kidney-international.org/article/S0085-2538(18)30628-8/fulltext
"...he basically sold his personal shares to his company."
Not according to the 13D filed with the SEC, which shows he recently sold 560,000+ shares.
Duggan actually has multiple companies; Genius Inc., Blaze-On, RWD Foundation, and maybe others.
He did originally own 7.2% of AUPH, then he reduced it to 5.9%, and now his latest 13D shows he's just under the 5% threshold at 4.97%.
So now he won't need to file anymore, assuming he doesn't add.
If Duggan's remaining 4.2M plus AUPH shares go to $30+, he'll regain the $100M plus paper loss he has currently with AKAO.
He's definitely had a tough year, so here's wishing his AUPH shares not only recoup his losses but give him a huge winner to boot.
"Duggan Robert W discloses 4.97% activist ownership in AUPH / Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc"
https://fintel.io/soh/us/auph/duggan-robert-w
Kathleen A. Arntsen- definitely a heavy hitter for Lupus
“As the leader of a national patient-led organization, I commend Aurinia for having the vision to elevate awareness for lupus nephritis, one of many potential manifestations of SLE that is often misunderstood by those affected. Aurinia’s dedication to educate and empower individuals and loved ones impacted by lupus nephritis by providing essential information, resources and support, is commensurate with our mission to improve quality of life,” stated Kathleen A. Arntsen, President and CEO, Lupus and Allied Diseases Association.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180214005223/en/Aurinia-Pharmaceuticals-Launches-New-Lupus-Nephritis-Disease
Duggan is a genuine man of mystery. His life story is unusual to say the least- risking his fortune on an apparent failing biotech and becomes CEO in the process, then becomes a billionaire with a home run with it.
Lately not as fortunate- he's been crushed with AKAO in the last year as it's now a buck and change, but he keeps buying it and now owns 20%.
He now owns 44% of PLSE which I also can't fathom either.
And I really don't get Scientology at all so he's an enigma to me (Duggan is their largest donor- more than $60M).
Maybe he's just lightening up to buy more AKAO or PLSE, or maybe he'll add more AUPH if the DES results disappoint.
Definitely an "American Original".
https://fintel.io/i/duggan-robert-w
Hi Jess! Re "Is your sabbatical over?". Yup and Thx.
Mega dittos to everything you said.
Here's hoping we start to really rock 'n' roll with this shortly.
from this morning's "The Readout" from STAT:
"Allergan’s other Restasis risk
Global drug giant Allergan is trying to get the Supreme Court to reconsider its patent claims on a blockbuster — and trying to get the rest of society to forgive its tactics for defending them — but there’s another risk on the horizon. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is running a trial to see whether its eye drug is superior to Allergan’s.
As STAT’s Adam Feuerstein reports, Aurinia has promised to release results from a mid-stage study testing whether its product, called voclosporin opthalmic solution, leads to fewer side effects than the billion-selling Restasis over four weeks. The study won’t generate enough data to submit to the FDA, but if Aurinia succeeds, it might be able to lure a big-money partner to take the drug forward and, eventually, cut into Allergan’s sales.
And if all goes well for Aurinia, Allergan’s patent situation could end being irrelevant."
Does anyone have access to the entire article? If so, please post a synopsis and TIA.
PS. Where's Vid? Guessing still MIA until we're closer.
PPS. Since it's options expiration day, what do we expect here?
I think the primary significance of that conference is in it's name; ie., "Micro-cap".
Would love to know if the next stage for them is "Nano-cap" or if they can progress and return to "Small Cap".
Happy Thanksgiving to all
Random thoughts/queries for entertainment purposes:
For something like 8 consecutive weeks AUPH drops on a Friday- will today be different?
Now that $6 has been breached, how far up do we go before a meaningful pullback?
Shorts and Institutions have to buy this now or fairly soon don't they?
Who won the Bloom and Burton award last night? (can't find any news)
Good luck today
Stock Traders Purchase High Volume of Call Options on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH)
"Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:AUPH) (TSE:AUP) saw some unusual options trading on Thursday. Investors purchased 2,197 call options on the company. This represents an increase of approximately 779% compared to the average volume of 250 call options."
https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2018/09/28/stock-traders-purchase-high-volume-of-call-options-on-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-auph.html
Does anyone have a good option strategy to recommend here?
TIA for any sound ideas
Thanks north- much appreciated and congrats to you!
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) Gets a Buy Rating from H.C. Wainwright
"H.C. Wainwright analyst Ed Arce maintained a Buy rating on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUPH) today and set a price target of $15. The company’s shares closed yesterday at $5.90."
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/brief/aurinia-pharmaceuticals-auph-gets-a-buy-rating-from-h-c-wainwright/
"....tell vidpok to return..." Great idea!
BTW, re the amazing AMRN: Someone said BO value is $45- what do you think?
TIA
Well stated, and the $30 is conservative if it's true that a fair buyout value is 3-5X potential peak sales.
Aurinia estimates that number to be $1.4B so triple that translates into a stock price of $39+.
At 5X the price would be $65+.
And many think the $1.4B potential market size could be conservative as it's still a mystery how many people have SLE and LN.
Add in DES and FSGS potential and then the possibility (maybe remote) that VCS is effective in SLE and could be used off label and you have a potential valuation that is somewhat mind boggling.
It's fun to dream
Onward and upward
SvsB- thanks for Elemer's report from Cantor- much appreciated.
I forgot about the 60% probability of success assessment, which accounts for the bulk of the seemingly low valuation.
I guess the positive is with the above factor, plus zero value currently calculated for DES and FSGS, there is a lot of room to raise their target price.
I think Cantor currently has the highest target on Aurinia, so I wonder what the others are thinking?
It's somewhat surprising to me that the outstanding team at Aurinia that has been assembled seems to be underestimated fairly substantially.
Thanks again for your help!
We could see more volatility than usual since tax loss selling is coming, plus DES plus updated analyst reports, maybe FSGS news, etc.
Should be an interesting 12 months from here.
Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. (ALDX) jumped $80M on their DES news today.
Haven't heard their webcast yet, but print results don't seem stellar (hard to really tell much imo)
If Aurinia DES results/market reaction equal ALDX, AUPH would climb $1.
Does anyone know when the DES trial concludes?
TIA
$18 target is less than $2B (fully diluted 106M shares).
Would like to know the rationale behind that number.
Seems like double at minimum should be more like it, and that's just for LN.
If you see a link to the Cantor report anywhere, pls post it and TIA.
The much anticipated countdown clock has started.
"Three Finalists Announced for the 2018 Bloom Burton Award
Annual Award Recognizes the Most Significant Contributors to Canada’s Healthcare Industry"
We'll know in 2 days if Dr. Glickman won.
Guessing the judge from Orbimed is not voting for Richard.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180514005430/en/Finalists-Announced-2018-Bloom-Burton-Award
"Aurinia And Voclosporin: Making A Difference In Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207929-aurinia-voclosporin-making-difference-focal-segmental-glomerulosclerosis
".....the rest of my small biotechs are doing very well."
Have to ask- what bios do you like here? TIA
Trump's wall doesn't exist, but the $6 wall for AUPH seems incredibly real.
Wondering when it gets breached- hopefully fairly soon.....maybe after tax loss selling and full enrollment announcement, etc.
Aurinia to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aurinia-participate-upcoming-investor-conferences-200100884.html
Nice volume at 1.3M today- have to go back to June to see similar
Big volume spike today including a reported single block buy of 94K shares!
(according to twitter)
Can't confirm that giant buy but did notice the volume jumped from 200K to 500K in a flash.
Maybe someone knows something good- stay tuned.
I'm guessing we all pretty much agree- we want to see high smart money ownership and low dumb money (which is retail/us) ownership.
You usually have to figure the smart money generally nearly always has the edge in terms of better and more timely information, etc.
Anyway, I think here we have roughly 75% smart money and only 25% dumb money.
Looking forward to hearing what BR is told by IR.
Thanks for checking.....BTW, what I said is partially incorrect as I was counting big private holders as institutions and technically they are not.
I guess the number that really counts is the public holders, which I think is somewhere around 25-30%, which I think is healthy while obviously a high number like 75% would be a negative.
The way they measure/determine these numbers is somewhat misleading- an example is Duggan's ownership of AKAO and AUPH. On Fintel, his shares show up on AKAO but not on AUPH.
Let us know what IR says and thanks.
"Aurinia has only 25% institutional ownership."
It's way higher- I think the real figure is around 70%.
The biggest holders don't even show up on Nasdaq.com or Fintel, which is a mystery to me.
I think if you call or email Aurinia they will tell you the real number.
The source of that SA article re Aurinia is the EVEXIA Bio Fund.
They seem pretty sharp and state their fund has more than doubled in the 4 years since they launched it.
http://www.evexiabiofund.com/about_us
http://www.evexiabiofund.com/portfolio
"2018 Is An Ideal Entry Point For Aurinia Pharmaceuticals"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205346-2018-ideal-entry-point-aurinia-pharmaceuticals
"Maybe they should buy out smaller bios."
Exactly! Luckily for AZN, Aurinia is for sale.
Would not be surprising if they're in the bidding.
AZN's market cap dropped just over $3B after their P3 SLE failure.
So is $3B the minimum value of Aurinia's LN drug???
I believe that a good SLE drug should be worth more than a good LN drug- the problem is there are neither at the moment.
Aurinia's VCS might possibly prove to be both.
more on AstraZeneca Phase 3 failure in SLE:
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/another-setback-for-az-as-lupus-drug-fails-phase-3-test?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkRCbE5UZGlNamxsT1RBMiIsInQiOiJaQ1QrNmVHWDVHbEEwaGFldlcweU1kQ2R1akc5bzBpUFdrcjhSY09CeTBJNW5SNG1aUUhTU1FJZkliVXpJUWlBUm5CK2l2VkVvZjVxK09wV3d4K3k2YzIyN1VHSnNITUdkWUlRMXNmNFBZRnJMaU5qNjNueU5xSFFxc0NWK1BPbSJ9&mrkid=51876159
I believe October is when Jess guessed some time ago that a BP would make a preemptive BO bid for Aurinia.
Come to think of it, I could have the year wrong; maybe he said next October.
Either way, this news certainly doesn't hurt the chances of that happening.
"AstraZeneca lupus drug fails to meet main goal in study"
This was a Phase III
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-astrazeneca-anifrolumab/astrazeneca-lupus-drug-fails-to-meet-main-goal-in-study-idUSKCN1LG0MM
more color on Affimed Roche/Genetech deal:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-why-affimed-stock-collapsed-194800968.html
Luna- thanks for your comments and for the list of your current interests.
Frustrating for sure, but always interesting.
Luna, thanks for your view. Can you share the other bios you like?
TIA if you can do.
Still strikes me as odd that this was stuck in the 5.25-5.50 range, then for no apparent reason it all changes.
"Closed at the high of the day.."
Yesterday as well. So, is it too hot at the beach, Martha's, etc. and the traders are back on their air conditioned trading floors or ????
Seems somewhat odd- will we see another increase tomorrow and then the fairly typical Friday sell off?
At least it somewhat beats the boredom. Long way to go here.