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They should also update their corporate presentation, now that Amgen is no longer a partner. The presentation is from October.
Yes. And adjusting for those categories could provide additional context in understating their likelihood of success, relative to others.
If they do end up pulling the trigger, this will be r/s number 2 for them in only a handful of years - not sure how that will look.
In the end, they'll have news lined up if they do it, I just hope its enough.
So you disagree that companies that perform a r/s generally perform worse than their peers. Great!
When did I ever say guarantees!? Please. Don't put words in my mouth.
IDC how you want to look at it, "cause" or not. Companies that perform a r/s generally perform worse than those that don't. Is that more indicative of their fundamentals than the r/s itself, probably. It doesn't change the point being made. I hope if they are forced to do a r/s that they have earthshattering news to report right afterwards, for all our sakes...
Now that would be quite the scenario. Haven’t heard that before, but that would be pretty wreckless. I guess anything is possible at this point.
My statement is correct. Hedge funds and smart money will invest based on valuation without concern of a “R/S overhang.”
Technically you’re correct, but that’s not what I was talking about. I was stating statistically speaking companies that perform a r/s (just simple math) more often than not perform worse than their peers. That’s just a fact and would call that an overhang. Yes, you could have an exit point post r/s similar to the last one, doesn’t change what I said. I also don’t trade this stock... I probably should though.
I said more often than not success rates and performance of stocks post a r/s are worse than their peers. That’s an overhang. Your comment about equity and retail is what I didn’t get.
So the fact they did one only a few years back makes this one more likely to succeed? Idk how that would make any difference in this case. In fact that makes it look worse, imo.
What does that even mean? More often then not a r/s is followed by shorting/decline in the stock. It’s a desperation move and it shows weakness. It is absolutely an overhang. They also don’t have many other options at this point either, it’s just the reality of the situation they’re in...
Spot on. R/S doesn't solve their problems. Their market cap is still under 15 million. How will they raise 40 million on that? Mind blowing how pathetic this is.
Amateur hour at Advaxis HQ.
I often wonder what they'd get for a firesale given the science to date.... Its 20 years going and it's still a mystery
P3 coming up. Amgen dropping looks terrible for NEO, at least. HOT is a nothingburger so far. PSA is still a toss up with nothing concrete. Gave away everything else.
These guys are blowing through cash with literally zero support from anyone with cash. Doesn't make sense unless they announce massive layoffs or a miracle happens with a bp. Maybe we'll learn more soon.
That’s the harsh truth. Well said. They are and will be fine. It’s just another gig for them..
This company has to partner at this point. I don’t see how they can r/s and dilute their way to relevancy. The first decade plus this company operated (2002 thru 2012} they recognized 50 million in total operating losses...we nearly doubled that last year alone at 98 million. This company is not sustainable as is..
Yes but a r/s to stay listed doesn’t solve the main funding issue with advaxis. They burn 40+ million a year with a market cap of 10 million and have zero revenue. NEO is no longer covered, so cash burn will only increase if they’re looking to continue it.
The problem is the market has cut off all reasonable funding for this company until they show something or ANYTHING with the science... they have nothing but a bloated workforce and science they can’t seem to license to anyone.
This stock is at basically zero. What do you think could happen at this point?
Makes total sense. It's valued at nothing right now!? Lol. What's the point of selling down here if you've held this long.
Reverse split. Rofl. This company is the absolute king of destroying capital. Let's keep this charade going so they can get their paychecks, why not?
This has been said dozens of times at multiple price points over the last couple of years. The only thing that's different now is there's not much market cap left to lose. Access to capital is basically squashed.
What? Has HOT been partnered? I missed that one.
These guys are disgusting.
Seriously!? Their actions over the last 2 years also showed they didn't have a care over funding. That was a total ruse. They had nothing, or it fell through. Their actions are opposite of their reality. They have to prove real interest at some point. This game can't continue forever... Market says the same.
Exactly. It's too late now though. This company has a market cap under 15 million. At these levels the company would be worth more if it was going through bankruptcy proceedings. They have zero debtors so who knows. Of course lawsuits could appear as well.
Another sad part of all this is we have no big names behind us. No activist investors or any big pharma to fall back on. Only ken and his crew hanging out in New Jersey trying to figure out how to avoid another ROSG... doesn’t necessarily make you feel warm and fuzzy inside.
One has to wonder how they get out of this. The company was blindsided by Amgen. They have no financial resources and no ability to raise. Their only financial partner for anything has left. To have gone this long without a response makes me think they really didn’t believe this could happen. Their timelines have all changed, again.
In the end, it seems like most of the investment thesis for owning Adxs is gone. Amgen leaving was the last big one. I’m just holding out to see what happens...I hope Merck does something.
Down another 13%. While volume is still reasonable, uncertainty is at an all time high.
It would be nice to hear from Ken. Or maybe not...
Still no response from Advaxis. 10 days and counting since they received their written termination notice from Amgen.
I have to believe they can get more than 20 million for their IP.
RIP
Yes. But what about advaxis and their execution, or lack thereof?
They've been through 3 ceos, missed deadlines, abysmal track record of fiscal management, just recently increased their NEO investment.
Advaxis is a perfect example of who NOT to partner with. I'm saying nothing about the science..
I agree they don't have enough data to make any true assessment of the potential of NEO. We do know that whatever they did see though wasn't enough to keep them involved, all things considered.
Also, if Advaxis was looking to play Amgen through HOT, it sure doesn't look like they did a very good job of it. We have no clue if NEO will even continue now that Amgen dropped it after sinking 80 million into it... It's an interesting scenario.
I tend to agree with you. There's no doubt they've seen some data at this point and while still early, they may not have been enamored with what they saw. Add to that the potential high costs of manufacturing and that combined led them to pull the plug. There's no doubt if the data was amazing they would have found a way to continue.
However, this notion that Amgen just got outplayed or "annoyed" by Advaxis because of their shrewd foresight in navigating HOT around them seems ludicrous. Not a 20 million dollar market cap company who has seen 3 CEO's over the last 1.5 years and failed to sign any sort of deal for 2.5. It's bonkers to even think it, imo.
I read this as amgen was emotionally tired of dealing with advaxis and their games, so it gave up. Is that honestly what you think is even remotely plausible?
How bout they had a manufacturing issue and or didn't like what they'd seen so far in the trial and decided to nip it in the bud? That seems far more reasonable to me.
Amgen could buy advaxis tomorrow and fire every one of those employees if it saw the benefit. They hold all the cards - advaxis has zero leverage and has no runway. How long to renegotiate a deal for NEO anyways?
LOL!
Wow. Soo close,
if another therapy can provide efficacy at a lower cost (HOT)
We have no idea of efficacy so far, so unless they can already conclude that NEO won't be much better than HOT, then sure.
What's the point for NEO at all then? Cancel it and go with HOT and Amgen realized they bet wrong...
Amgen has partnered with other companies to use CI's with some of their own internal drugs in development. I can't believe they couldn't do that with NEO if they saw the need for it. I find it hard to believe Amgen would drop NEO over that.
Do you believe this cost issue would translate similarly to other NEO antigen companies, or is this something particular to the process in which Advaxis/Amgen have decided to design the drug? Or maybe we just don't have enough info? Thanks.
We all know how expensive CAR-T is. I'm amazed the cost is so prohibitive for Amgen that they wanted to terminate the agreement before seeing any results.
James, what's your take on what transpired last week? Do you feel Amgen cut and run due to some manufacturing problem / change in strategy / lackluster data / other ?
The NEO/Amgen partnership was the strongest part of the investment thesis for owning this stock (IMO), and now we don't even know the fate of NEO going forward...
Tutes no doubt sold. I can't believe Amgen didn't unload as well. 4 million shares traded doesn't seem like a whole heck of a lot when you consider the news.
I assume plenty are still waiting to hear what Ken and company have to say about this utter trainwreck of an announcement. After that all bets are off on what transpires.
Haha. Idk why, but that made me laugh. Not a bad return for him over 8 months. He must have one heck of a cv by now.
I hope they sell the dang company at this point. I can’t see any reason to keep this many people on board while they all collect paychecks and the cash reserves go to zilch. They’ve destroyed more capital than is necessary. Pass the IP along, if anyone is even willing to buy...
I'm worried Advaxis doesn't even have a clue what to do at this point given their non-response to the biggest blow yet to the company. They have a massive workforce and not a single meaningful (financial) partnership.
I'm ready for them to sell this thing for whatever they can get...
Still nothing from the company. Amgen wrote them last Monday. 7 days and counting.
Well said and very honest. If nothing else I feel like a fool as there were way too many signs. Life will go on.