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If they don’t announce by May 1st, it will be a $3 stock by end of May 2nd. I also would guess a lawsuit or two will be filed either tomorrow or Thursday.
One week from today is May 2nd and……crickets! I still can’t fathom why Ferris is doing this?
I bought a few more shares today as well. Problem now is there are a lot of great stock buys out there in the micro cap space. But I do think VTSI could pop pretty good …..in spite of the CEO.
I sure hope they are right. Hard to imagine Ferris is so arrogant and stupid as to enter May without releasing the Q4 numbers. And IF IF IF he and the BOD cared even one iota about shareholders they would issue the Q1 results at the same time.....and provide Q2 guidance (since it is already half over from a revenue standpoint).
It should be easy now as with the new ERP system all the financials are always up to date.
Its even worse than that. We have not even gotten "preliminary" or "unaudited" or "estimated" Q4 results. WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ANY Q4 RESULTS. None. This is unbelievable at this point.
They could have released estimated numbers or preliminary numbers or even just said "here are the unaudited numbers and they are subject to change." Yet instead they chose to keep everyone in the dark. How freaking stupid was that decision. And why did they decide to do that?
If the CEO and BOD did not have such a well documented history of stupid decisions I would say there were sinister motives at play. But since they have such a long record of mis-steps this is likely just another.
April 20th!!!!
No Q4 numbers.
No Q1 numbers.
No 2022 guidance.
Miracle the stock is over $5.
Miracle lawsuits haven’t been filed.
2022 is now 40% complete in terms of revenue yet we don’t even know how 2021 finished.
Why hasn’t BOD fired Ferris?
Every BOD member should be individually sued for failing in their duties.
What spineless, gutless, “leadership”.
For one thing their “search” was clearly a charade.
Another is the simultaneous hire. Bod already stealing thunder.
Biggest problem for me is the age of the CEO.
Second biggest is the experience of the President.
But it’s easy to Monday am quarterback, so maybe they will each surprise. I don’t own their shares but do follow them, if they did have even half a brain they do a hostile takeover of VirTra.
Terrible appointments by the WRAP bod. Wonder how long before Axon steps in and bails them out?
And I keep on buying more and more.
My guess…..It will be out next week. Likely Tuesday morning.
Just a pure guess based only on wishful thinking.
Yikes. Knowing that, I will stop rooting for the 4s and cross my toes that it goes up soon and alot.
At least the current swoon has allowed some of us to build back our positions to at least some degree. I even talked to the newer Gateway IR guy (Jeff) a few days ago. I called him to biotch a bit and express my disappointment with the company communication. It was just like the old days.....I got ZERO satisfaction from the call.
Smart buy. The May 5s also look great…..assuming VirTra releases Q1 on time.
I bought a few thou more shares today. If it goes sub $5 that would be awesome. Yes painful in the very short term but phenomenal looking out just a few weeks.
Wonder if old timers like Joelawyer and CoachJim are still shareholders?
I sure never thought we would go back to the days when daily trading volume was essentially zero. Remarkable. Of course missing the SEC reporting deadline was also remarkable.
I bought shares every day this week except today and feel pretty good about again owning a respectable number.
Yes they do. The part of what Ferris said that raised my eyebrows was when he talked about the seeming difficulty with keeping it a secret or surprising the marketplace. If it is simply a new product, keeping it secret is easy and simple unless outside consultants are involved. And the reality is no one cares anyway cuz relative to an Axon a company like VirTra doesn’t even exist.
A VR headset would be welcome since it might result in more rah rah for the company and stock.
My guess is they are using their cash to buy a company that has nothing to do with VR but is focused on police training.
Anyone have a guess as to the new product Ferris mentioned in the conf call? He seemed pretty confident it would amaze and astound and blow many away! I was rather shocked to hear him that excited about anything.
VirTra Advisory Board.....Anyone know if it is still in existence?
I will not. While I admire ARZ's effort and support investor activism, my gripes with the CEO and BOD do not involve anything that is illegal or in violation of SEC rules or that sort of stuff. I get to vote my shares every year and can nominate whoever I want if I want to fill out the required paperwork. Anyone can.
At its fundamental core, my gripe with the CEO is that he has not grown the company revenue quickly enough. This is because he has not developed a high performing sales organization. Drilling further, perhaps it is because the BOD does not hold him accountable.
I believe the products are good enough and I believe there are enough potential customers to easily grow at 50%/year for the next 10 years. I also believe the CEO's focus on Military comes at the expense of sales to Police Depts....because the Sales Org is weak and also not held accountable.
VTSI stock continues to trade very strong relative to other micro caps. It is being accumulated by the savvy....and maybe sabby.
If Ferris is able to string together 3 straight years of 25% YOY growth of which 2021 will be the first (I hope) then I will cut him some slack.
I can’t believe I used to think you were him! Years and years ago it was your posting that lead me to keep on buying. I should send you a check or something.
I was at Honeywell when they implemented Oracles ERP software.
I was at a large private HVAC company when they implemented SAP’s ERP software.
Both took way longer than expected and cost more than expected so I sorta get where Ferris is coming from.
To me his biggest sin was not providing an unaudited revenue estimate. What’s the harm in that?
Based on the stocks reaction since the conf call, VTSI and it’s CEO are being viewed in a very skeptical manner….and perhaps justifiably so. The CEO has developed a bit of a reputation for untimely mid-steps.
There ARE most certainly many eyes on VTSI right now so that is not the problem. Even Gomes discussed the stock briefly last week in one of his videos. The problem is the unforced errors and the CEOs credibility.
As I still believe in the company, it’s products, and it’s valuation, I will keep building back my position.
The difficulty for me is coming up with a correct estimate of "fair value" for VTSI stock. Given the trailing actual company performance, the historic valuation metrics, the forward expectations, etc. it is still a tough one for me to nail down.
Right now the company has a $65mil market cap and an enterprise value of $46million. They have a decent history of both top line and bottom line growth but also have a penchant for being too-conservative with a too-inexperienced CEO and BOD at the helm.
Trailing FY2021 seems destined to come in at roughly $24million+/-.
Current FY2022 seems destined to come in at $30million+/-.
VirTra is also a nice "story sort of stock" and has a super clean capital structure and would be a great add for several competitors and PE groups. Think about how easy it would be for a great PE group to take it private, upgrade management, and IPO it two years later.
In today's market, I would say a conservative fair value would be a PS of 2.5 using EV. So (2.5 x 30) + 19 = $94million. This would equate to a stock price of $8.70.
But then if you factor in things like the market being forward looking and the PS valuations of competitors then one could make an argument for $16 to $20.
I am comfortable buying the stock now because while I can see many scenarios for a higher stock price it is difficult for me to see scenarios to justify a $4 or $5 price. Ok, I suppose it could take them two months to announce Q4 and they would miss both the Q4 and Q1 deadlines and then they could announce a $5mil number for Q4 and a $4mil number for Q1. So it is possible I suppose but me thinks those things are a 1 in 100 event(s).
To me it sorta feels like we are back on the pink sheets! Missing report dates. Next they will announce Q4 numbers during the trading day! All that said, I bought enough shares now so that I might be a small help to ARZ.
Are there really only a hand full of us here? Where is Ardly?
It will be interesting to see how much and how quickly analysts increase Q4, Q1, and 2022 estimates. Listen to the recording of todays conf call. Buy as many shares as you can, this is going higher. It is just a damn shame that it isn’t happening tomorrow.
Hi Teeroy, What would "significant growth in sales" mean to you?
In 2020, revenue was 19.1million.
Longterm historical growth is about 10% per year for VirTra.
"Significant" suggests to me something more like 25 to 40%.
25% would mean full year 2021 was 23.9mil which puts Q4 at 8.1mil.
40% would mean 26.7mil full year and Q4 at 10.9mil.
Even though I am unhappy with the ineptness, gotta believe the stock is a buy here.
On March 21st, JUST 10 DAYS AGO, Ferris promised that today they would release AND I QUOTE,,,,"preliminary unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year"
What an embarassment. Again, Lemons from Lemonade...Master Chef Ferris
What a freaking idiotic PR.
No revenue number?
Not even a range or statement that it is unaudited and preliminary.
If I were on the BOD, Ferris would be fired immediately.
While I would love if each director owned a bunch of shares, my view is that the main problem with this BOD is their collective lack of experience as directors. Only one of them (Richardson I think) has any applicable experience. ALL the others were handpicked by Ferris and have very light resumes and none of them go to bat for shareholders. None of them hold Ferris accountable.
In this day and age, can you imagine a CEO without written annual objectives and deliverables? One without a written 3 year and 5 year plans? A CEO who keeps onboard the leader of a sales organization that has delivered mediocre results for many years now?
Whatever, it is no longer my battle.
Thanks gilead! Anyone who makes money on any trade on any stock is a hero in my book. It is a tough business. My lowest ever buy on VTSI was 2.9cents which would be 58cents today due to the 1 for 20 split. But most of my shares I bought at 2 or 3X that price. All those share are now long gone thanks to the spike and then rise last year. But I still enjoy following the company and rooting for their success and making trades along the way. If Spring ever comes to WI I will be outside doing fun stuff rather than sitting with my laptop and polluting this message board.
That's awesome and I admire the effort. Several years ago when I tried to lead a drive for change I failed miserably though I learned a lot. While we did get the CEO's attention, it did not result in the changes we were looking for, namely the install of an experienced proven leader for the sales organization and a dream of Ferris moving to CTO and COB and the install of a new CEO and the install of a shareholder rep on the BOD.
I now think the only way to make the needed changes is to buy enough of the outstanding shares to have the power to force the necessary changes. This would require owning about 30% of the shares and they would have to be owned by one person since trying to get 2 or more to agree on anything is like herding cats.
I do think that eventually the right activist will come along or the right PE group or Competitor and simply buy VirTra in a hostile fashion. It will happen.
Yep, tough to know what he was saying. But maybe I bought your shares today as I made a few small buys near the close. Overall VTSI traded strong today vs. a very weak Russell 2000 that was down over 2%. Nice 40,000 share buy mid-day as well.
If CEO meant best simply in terms of highest annual revenue ever then it might be a disaster.
If CEO meant best in terms of a nice mix of products and customers then it will be an epic disaster.
If CEO meant best in terms of largest percent increase over a prior year or relative to their historic growth rate then we might be in for a pleasant surprise.
Maybe he simply loves the new carpet and drapes in his new office and that makes it the best.
Perhaps best in terms of setting the stage for 2023.
24 hours from now we will know. For me, I would rather be an owner of at least some shares today rather than none.
Sometimes more eyes on a stock make it easier to trade because the stock becomes more predictable. But this is a really tough and rather unpredictable market in which to trade as some valuations defy all logic.
For example, stocks like RFP, JOB, SGMA are stupidly undervalued based on ps, Ev/ebitda, pb. Just incredibly cheap and I own them all and add shares most every week.
Others like VTSI and POWW might be about right.
I have a big position in FARM and think it trends up for a couple years. But the dips and blips along the way make it tough.
And even though UVE crushed me, I have bought more and love UIHC in spite of current direction. Their Div will never be cut, 7.1% right now!
I have been trading AXL a lot and keep some for the auto rebound, same with SUP.
Of all the ones I mess with, AXL is the most fun. Tons of volume, big weekly moves, fundamentally cheap.
The hit rate on my guesses is low! So to do the opposite might be smarter.
Here is my thinking…,,Q4 will be at least decent and enough to bump up the stock a couple bucks due to a likely bullish sounding CEO in conf call.
I believe Q1 will be spectacular which might get the stock back to 12. But then expectations for Q2 will be so high that the company is sure to disappoint when Q2 is announced in mid Aug.
You might be right.
Through the first 9months of 2021 they are at 15.8mil and eps if 24cents.
CEO-oh would rather make his life in 2022 as easy as possible so will likely manage Q4 revenue by pushing some into Q1. Not all bad if he would always do that sort of thing.
I still think today and tomorrow are great times to buy the stock for a 1 week flip and 2month flip. Best to be out before mig August.
I have now accumulated a large position, it is now free to rise. With no debt, an Ev/ebitda sub 2, it should have an easy run to $1.50+.
What are everyone’s revenue guesses for Q4?
Analyst consensus is $6.2million.
My guess is $9million.
VirTra should buy Axon.
Twister hit the nail on the head.
My take is that Ferris wouldn’t know an all star employee from a 4th tier employee. The entire company is staffed with average-at-best and likely sub par employees at EVERY level including the CEO. And it starts with the BOD that is also sub par in every way. They are even sub par on paper from a resume perspective. And it all stems from Ferris never having worked for or with top flight talent at top tier companies. All he knows is his little isolated pond in which he is the big fish. He and his company would drown and are drowning in the ocean.
I was also trying to be playful….that’s why I pulled out ginormous! Everyone that posts here is really good and nice and smart and savvy….or at least two of those.