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I would guess the company will time everything as more people start tuning in. And that could take weeks to develop. Why would they rush it?
I see. The K does 3 things. It summarizes what happened last year, it tells you some of the plans going forward and it's the first of a series of new disclosures I am sure the company will be making. The company is only allowed to release information when it's required to ( same conversely) or where it's not allowed to contractually. Don't expect the 10k to ander all your questions. The company will put out news as things develop.
I think it would be foolish for the company to blow all of its updates and news in a single document especially when NO ONE is looking at the stock yet.
Not sure what the confusion is.
I think the coming weeks will demonstrate to us how committed the company is to developing revenues and increasing shareholder awareness. I am hoping SIDOTI is only the start of an investor awareness campaign that continues throughout the year. I am looking forward to seeing what the companies plans are in the 10K for 2016-2017 and whether the 10K gives us an indication who the banker will be and how much will be raised. I look forward to her shareholder updates as I think they provide insight to her thought process and telegraphs where the company is going.
I think at this stage, the banker is key. Hope we find out soon.
One more important factor that I forgot to alert you to. If you see an ASK for 600 shares or more, look at the other side of the box for a BID by the same MM usually within 100 shares of the ASK. That signals to me anyway it's a MM short rather than a real retail sale. It happens more than you know. And if there is no outside activity, they lower the market to try to stimulate trading. That's all.
I completely get what you are saying, but I don't think you are 100% correct in this case. When you place an order to buy at the ASK, a MM will FILL that order, and then has 3 days to get your broker the stock via DWAC and/or DTC. Now the MM can fill that order one of 2 ways - either it has a real seller and those shares are in that sellers trading account, or the MM can pre-sell you shares before they actually have them in their house account. When a MM sells you shares (when you buy a the ASK) and they fill your order, the time clock starts, and they have 3 days to settle, as per FINRA. If it comes from a real seller - no worries for the MM. If they pre-sold shares they don't have (shorting), now they have to go into the market and get those shares to cover. IN our stock, that means hitting the bid for 100 shares and dropping the bid down, then jumping ahead the next lowest BID while dropping the ASK to scare someone with real stock into selling.
Now in most cases, I would tend to agree with you more than not, but here are some facts as per the disclosures and the best math I can come up with:
370K shares in the float of which 170K shares are more likely than not held by insiders and cannot be sold unless pursuant to rule 144, which means the have to first file a Form 144 with the SEC, and then file a FORM 4 after the sale, within 3 business/trading days. So thats bout 170K really not traceable in the float.
This leaves about 200K shares in the trading public float left, and my best guess between Cheeky, Yourself, TradeAllDay, HokieHead, me and a few others, that accounts for another 140K shares which I could be wrong but you would need to pry those shares from their (and my) KUNG FU grips right now.
That leaves a guesstimate of 60,000 shares left for trading purposes. I am assuming longs are slowly picking off those shares, and over the last 45 days, maybe 50-75% have been picked off by friendly's.
That leaves us about 20K shares left, which may be the shares playing ping pong, but certainly a dangerous amount to be shorting, but the MM computers don't account for float-lock. With such a ridiculously small public actual trading float, its quite possible that in order for the MM to do what they are responsible to do - that is make a market in an issues stock - they trade back and forth electronic shares between themselves, which is evident between the relationship between CDEL and NITE - its almost as if their trading platforms are mirrored and they take turns with NITE doing 70% of the volume.
Thats only one analysis and could be others, but don;t think its far off. You technically "could" be right, but with only roughly 20K shares that are traceable, an average volume of 5,000 shares a day seems to support more my analysis. Just say'n PPP.
I will also add when you see more than 1000 shares on the ASK, I am SURE thats to short the stock because at the time of selling those shares, there is a .20 to .60 cent spread - very easy to cover and thats why.....its all about the BIDS.
Sorry, one more important note, then I will open the floor to discussion - when a MM sells stock, it could be doing so on its own account. If that happens, then they have up to 23 days to cover as per FINRA regs. So when you see a 1,000 share ask, maybe even a 700 or 600, I would put money down on a short play, especially if you look to the other side of the box and see a .20 cent or greater spread.
I completely understand different management styles. Do you?
Understood. Just out of curiosity, was that your $15,000 bid at $1.26 yesterday?
Could it be that they sold you shares they don't have? They have 3 days to settle the account. I look at the daily volume and try to match up trades and its plausible they can be doing that - they go back into the market on the low bid and fill, then deliver. What do you think. Possible?
Agreed, thats from FINRA itself so its hard to argue that. FINRA publishes actual short interests, not daily cover on the 3 day fill requirement for actual purchases via brokers. So the short is certainly not retail as suspected by some. Its an actual short. Expect them to drop the Ask and slam the bid monday without support. NITE didn't flash that $15K bid for 12,500 shares at $1.26 for nothing yesterday.
The only bias you perceive is not really bias. There has been a course of press releases that lead you to believe the company is much further along than its filings disclose. This is where I have a problem. I have been in this industry for over 20 years and know everyone in it. Never heard of Chaya, and most of the people in the industry haven't either. Too many companies tout their biometric technology without it being completed, tested or distributed in the market. I also know the finance tech sector, and if this company really had this product that works the way they claim it does, then this would have been snatched up years ago, if not within the last 2 years. But to me, if the card does exist, there may be some technical or practical issues that may be a barrier to entry. We will see first hand.
However, because I know this technology and I will be attending the convention with some of my own engineers, I am interested to see this card work. If it does, I will report back with positive results - you can count on that, because if it works, I will see this as a breakthrough for our industry. If it doesn't (and they won't be able to smoke screen me) I will let you know as well and just say it, and move on.
Having been involved in a company that sold $10's of millions of biometric products, I'll know within a few minutes and a few technical questions that are answered. If it exists, I will even offer to assist her as a shareholder - not that her ego will allow anyone to help, but I will make the offer.
Card_Lab appears to be running 3 pilots right now - live, with financial institutions. Doesn't matter if Chaya's card is real or not, this other company is doing it, right under her/his nose. Doesn't take years of incessant press releases to get a pilot going, unless the SMME card isn't ready yet. We will see April 4th, because I will be there and will be reporting back.
I don't think 100 shares either way, red or green would actually matter in the long run. But I completely get what your saying.
I could't have said it better. Particularly with the events next week. Have a great weekend all! Happy Easter and Happy Passover.
I believe if you own stock, you are a long. There are more than 10 longs that post to this board. The paint is psychological. When the bids start lining up a few cents away from the ask, then we have some real trading going on. The coming weeks will be very interesting to say the least.
Nite MM but could be retail buyer testing the waters.That was a $15,000 bid, so maybe...........
NITE just telegraphed a panic cover. 12,500 shares at the bid at $1.26. DON'T FALL FOR IT!
Safe to assume for now, they are total 12,500 shares short going into a market close day tomorrow
Those are the things I focus on. I try to see what the company is doing based on its stated disclosures. Then look at the listing requirements to see if the company is taking steps to qualify. It's not rocket science. The daily torture of watching and analyzing every buy and sell is brutal. I'm waiting for the time when it starts moving up with volume. Then I can check off that the company is again working on meeting both the PPS and the number of shareholder requirements. Hopefully I see it all coming together over the next several weeks.
And I will give you credit after we find out for sure. No issues with that YD
Beg to differ. If there is dilution the stock would be .10 already.
If you only knew.
No, I only trade my own stock. Not other peoples. The reference was if you are a professional trader, chances are that you have already been exposed to, and understand MM activity in a thinly traded stock.
I am trying to help everyone understand how this works, because I KNOW how this works. Its a numbers game. I certainly don;t agree with it at all, but until there are stronger bids, they will continue to do this and slowly walk this down until either you get frustrated and sell out, or hit them back.
The good thing is that they are easily surprised by events the computer cannot predict. Remember THAT.
Because 1 bid doesn't do it. You need several. Its all about bid support.
Well, until you show me your Series 7 or have worked for a MM, we can disagree.
See that, NITE altered the bid again, lowered it, but showing more stock. Amazing how thats predictable.
A lot of you probably aren't use to this as you probably trade in stocks with 100"s millions of shares in the float and everyone is vying for .005 per share profits.
See, those bid changes from 1.56 to 1.66 mean absolutely nothing. And if they don;t get a hit soon, they will reduce the quantity and maybe even hit it themselves to try to create selling, so they can cover.
If bids were at 1.85 right now, and say there were 4 of them, and then someone sacked the ask, it would be over $2.00 Tats how I see it anyway. Its not an exact science for us.
They already covered. Just look at the trading days and volume. Its only math.
Simple, because the higher it goes, the more risk they create for themselves by having to potentially cover at a higher rate.
See, 500 shares that just went off hit a level in the trading computer and the raised the ask by .25 Thats a huge lift for any stock, but the bids didn't back fill and now there is another .30 gap.
Its solely the MM's making a market in the stock. They are legally allowed to sell shares they don;t have, and can keep that up for up to 3 weeks, before they are required to fill. Its not moving up because the MM THINKS this is a baseline where they can make a few thousand bucks because there is not enough pressure on the ask. Thats why its all about the bids. Buy and Sell via bids and you will have a ore orderly market. PPP and NEGS know this.
The rules within MM's can play are terrible, especially n the OTC. They can sell shares they don't own or have access to. There are different time limitations on those, 3 days, 11 days and 23 days, depending on the trade, if they can borrow the stock to trade against, etc......... Its truly a disgusting system.
So they can keep selling shares they don't own, and when they feel the time is right (usually a real desk trader), or the computer kicks in, they drop sack the bid for 100 shares, drop the bids, then drop the ask by a penny making people feel like its going to fall to create panic selling, where, into their high bid that they just dropped. Its more psychology and its definitely the day traders v. the MM's on that.
I think everyone should shed that day-trade mentality just for a moment and take an objective look at this. Its a thinly traded stock. Its a MM's paradise and they have been playing us for between $1.00 and $ .20 a share for months. No one knows about this stock, or this company. PR's don't elicit buying, they drive selling right now because of the nature of the investors so far. Its going to be a function of time and awareness thats up to the company and its banker.
While a lot of the hype is firmly grounded in DD and market research, until the company makes a big move, better yet, when its allowed to, things will hopefully rapidly change.
Yup, its terrible. But thats what MM's do. I seriously count there is actual stock lined up to sell, because the bids would be hit way more at these levels if there were. This is just continued MM games until there is a steady flow of buy orders and they run the risk of being unfulfilled. They are playing us for .25 a clip per share. It's not rocket science.
On the flip side, someone is buying and thats always a good thing.
Does THIS blow you away - a Danish firm WAY AHEAD of SMME and already has US Banks involved. Somethings rotten, and its not in Denmark!
http://www.planetbiometrics.com/article-details/i/3992/
Probably need 4 different buyers slapping it at the same time to get it up. NITE will continue to sell what it doesn't have until the pressure bears down on it, and the computer program kicks it up. All OTC stocks are subject to this BS.
The only way to really gauge what NITE is doing is to move your trading accounts to a brokerage firm that clears through a completely different MM than whats already on the box. These are usually broker-dealers with a trading desk as a MM. Other than that, NITE plays in 1200 stocks, and is a known shorter and game player. I always said, the more MM trading in this stock, the less game playing NITE can do. It has FREE RULE for now.
A simple explanation could be as follows. Over the last 4 weeks, NITE and possible CDEL sold stock above $2.00 it didn't own. They have 23 days to actually cover. With all the screaming about news, they know its just a matter of time. So when they see big size bids for 1,000 plus shares, they hit the bid, and make $.30 a share. Its really that simple. This is what they do. They make a market in a stock. Their trading programs are tweaked to do this.
When there is overwhelming buying (they aren't afraid of 3,000 shares) they run for the hills, just like the climb in December. I fact, they jumped .30 cents a clip to get out of the way of the buying. No Form 4's or 144's, so its not the company.
I doubt its other longs, maybe a few day guys reeling from all the negativity a week ago, but thats the ONLY thing I can think of. Hopefully even that will be short lived.
I'll ask the company to send you a joystick YD!
Am hoping the company and its bankers are lining up some buy-side research. That would help.
LOL, if YD plays nice going forward, the company may even let him operate a drone or two!