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SE wind. That is bad news out there.
18 here today.
Ear on the Street
Ascalade Communications (ACG : TSX : $3.15)
Q4 preview
Raymond James maintains "market perform", 6-12 month target price is $2.75
AutoCanada Income Fund (ACQ.UN : TSX : $10.60)
Chrysler sales up in February
Raymond James maintains "strong buy", 6-12 month target price is $12.00
AltaGas Income Trust (ALA.UN : TSX : $26.66)
Solid Q4 results
BMO Capital Markets maintains "market perform", 12-month target price is $26.00
Amtelecom Income Fund (AMT.UN : TSX : $13.40)
Q4 in line
BMO Capital Markets maintains "market perform", 12-month target price is $13.00
Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN : TSX : $23.95)
New Street coverage
CIBC World Markets initiates coverage with a "sector outperform", 12-month target price is $26.10
Addax Petroleum (AXC : TSX : $33.40)
Excellent Taq Taq results
RBC Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is raised to $38.00
Scotia Capital Markets maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price is $42.50
Bear Ridge Resources (BER : TSX : $1.25)
2006 proved reserve up 167%
BMO Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is cut to $2.25
BFI Canada Income Fund (BFC.UN : TSX : $25.80)
Q4 preview
Scotia Capital Markets maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price is $30.00
Bank of Montreal (BMO : TSX : $69.75 | NYSE : US$59.28)
Q1 slightly above expectations
Blackmont Capital maintains "hold", 12-month target price is raised to $75.00
BMO Capital Markets maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $73.00
CIBC World Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is raised to $75.00
Desjardins Securities maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $77.00
Scotia Capital Markets maintains "sector underperform", 12-month target price is $80.00
Cameco Corp. (CCO : TSX : $42.56)
Cigar Lake remediation progressing as planned
RBC Capital Markets maintains "top pick", 12-month target price is $60.00
Coeur D'alene Mines (CDM : TSX : $5.00 | CDE : NYSE : US$4.23)
Challenges remain going forward
CIBC World Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price is US$7.35
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price cut to US$6.75
Calfrac Well Services (CFW : TSX : $18.34)
Q4 in line
Raymond James maintains "outperform", 6-12 month target price is cut to $26.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $24.00
TD Newcrest maintains "hold", 12-month target price is cut to $23.00
Certicom Corp. (CIC : TSX : $5.26)
Disappointing results
BMO Nesbitt Burns maintains a "outperform", target price is $9.00
CIBC World Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price cut to $7.00
TD Newcrest maintains a "buy", 12-month target price is cut to $7.00
CIBC (CM : TSX : $100.50 | NYSE : US$85.24)
Q1 beats expectations
BMO Nesbitt Burns maintains a "outperform", target price raised to $110.00
Desjardins Securities maintains a "buy", target price raised to $110.00
Scotia Capital Markets maintains a "sector perform", 1-year target price is $115.00
TD Newcrest maintains "hold", 12-month target price is raised to $106.00
Cardiome Pharma (COM : TSX : $12.02 | CRME : NASDAQ : US$10.23)
FDA is reviewing Cardiome's application for approval of Vernakalant
Canaccord Adams Maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $21.40
GMP Securities maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $20.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is $15.00
Cognos Inc. (CSN : TSX : $46.90 | COGN : NASDAQ : US$39.78)
BI sector heating up
Raymond James maintains a "outperform", 6-12 month target price is US$49.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "outperform", target price not provided
DataMirror Corp. (DMC : TSX : $15.89)
Posts strong fourth quarter results
CIBC World Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price raised to $16.00
Raymond James maintains a "outperform", 6-12 month target price is $16.00
TD Newcrest maintains a "buy", 12-month target price is raised to $19.00
Equitable Group Inc. (ETC : TSX : $33.60)
Liquidation of shares by outgoing CEO
Blackmont Capital maintains a "buy", 12-month target price is $40.00
Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG.UN : TSX : $26.78)
Distribution short of expectations
Desjardins Securities maintains a "hold", target price is $29.10
CHC Helicopter (FLY.A : TSX : $24.03 | FLI : NYSE : US$20.31)
Announced new contracts and orders
GMP Securities maintains a "buy", target price is $31.00
First National Financial (FN.UN : TSX : $15.65)
Positive outlook
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "outperform", target price raised to $17.00
TD Newcrest upgrades to "buy", 12-month target price is raised to $17.00
Freehold Royalty Trust (FRU.UN : TSX : $14.33)
Q4 in line
CIBC World Markets downgrades to "sector perform", 12-month target price is cut to $15.50
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "outperform", target price raised to $15.00
GMP Capital Trust (GMP.UN : TSX : $21.49)
Solid Q4 results
BMO Capital Markets maintains "market perform", 12-month target price is raised to $23.00
CIBC World Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $24.00
Genuity maintains "buy", 12-month target price is raised to $24.50
Westwind Partners downgrades to "sell", 12-month target price is $19.00
Husky Injection Molding Sys. (HKY : TSX : $6.38)
Q2 preview
BMO Capital Markets maintains "market perform", 12-month target price is $5.50
Hostopia.com (H : TSX : $5.90)
Taking advantage of the growing outsourced web services market
GMP Securities initiates coverage with a "buy", target price is $7.25
Legacy Hotels Real Estate Tr. (LGY.UN : TSX : $13.85)
Considering strategic alternatives
BMO Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is raised to $16.00
Raymond James downgrades to "outperform", 6-12 month target price is raised to $15.50
TD Newcrest downgrades to "hold", 12-month target price is raised to $13.50
LionOre Mining International (LIM : TSX : $15.80)
Q4 below estimates
BMO Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is $20.00
Loblaw Companies (L : TSX : $45.99)
Ontario business needs to be fixed
Desjardins Securities maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $50.00
MacDonald Dettwiler & Assoc. (MDA : TSX : $48.00)
Strong Q4
RBC Capital Markets maintains "top pick", 12-month target price is $60.00
Major Drilling Group Intl. (MDI : TSX : $27.12)
Pending Board Longyear IPO was filed
TD Newcrest maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $32.00
March Networks (MN : TSX : $11.26)
Q3 beats expectations
BMO Capital Markets maintains "market perform", 12-month target price is $12.00
Canaccord Adams maintains "sell", 12-month target price is $10.00
CIBC World Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price cut to $13.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is $15.00
Martinrea International (MRE : TSX : $12.75)
Downgrade based on price appreciation
BMO Capital Markets downgrades to "underperform", 12-month target price is $10.50
Metro Inc. (MRU.A : TSX : $39.35)
Potential impact of sale of A&P stake in Metro
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $40.00
MOSAID Technologies (MSD : TSX : $24.00)
Intel lawsuit creates overhang
GMP Securities maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $34.00
Scotia Capital Markets maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price is $36.00
National Bank of Canada (NA : TSX : $64.96)
Q1 earnings up 13%
Blackmont Capital maintains "hold", 12-month target price is raised to $67.50
BMO Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is raised to $71.00
Desjardins Securities maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $69.00
Scotia Capital Markets maintains "sector underperform", 12-month target price is $77.00
TD Newcrest maintains "buy", 12-month target price is raised to $73.00
Nortel Networks Corp. (NT : TSX : $33.35 | NYSE : US$28.29)
Better than expected Q4 sales
GMP Securities maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $35.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is US$32.00
NuVista Energy Ltd (NVA : TSX : $12.76)
Q4 CFPS less than expected
Blackmont Capital maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $16.00
GMP Securities maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $17.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $15.00
Novelis (NVL : TSX : $51.51 | NYSE : US$43.83)
Adjusted Q4 below estimates
BMO Capital Markets maintains "market perform", 12-month target price is $44.00
Scotia Capital Markets maintains "sector underperform", 12-month target price is $52.86
Pacific & Western Credit (PWC : TSX : $11.51)
Results shy of estimates
Blackmont Capital maintains a "hold", 12-month target price is cut to $12.00
Trinidad Energy Services (TDG.UN : TSX : $14.05)
Year-end results slightly better than expected
Blackmont Capital maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $15.25
Talisman Energy (TLM : TSX : $18.81)
Year-end results in line
Blackmont Capital maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $20.00
From 1992.
Attention Venture Capitalists…
A U.S. inventor has come up with a
fridge that throws cold cans of beer
to lazy drinkers.
John Cornwell, who spent nearly
$3,500 creating the Beer Launching Fridge, is
attracting lots of interest since videos of it in
action were posted on the Internet.
The fridge is activated by a remote control,
which sets off a lift mechanism in the fridge.
The lift delivers the can to an electronic
catapult, which rotates until it is lined up with
its thirsty target.
It then hurls the beer up to 10 feet to the
drinker. It can hold a full 24-can crate – 10
beers in its magazine and 14 more in reserve.
Cornwell, 22, who has just graduated from
university in North Carolina, said, “The idea
was conceived when I was sitting on the sofa
having a few beers. I thought, ‘What if
instead of me going to get the beer, the beer
came to me?’”
“There is a slight danger of being hit in the
head with a flying can but this danger
decreases the more you use it,” he noted.
I dinar note.
Is it real?
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showthread.php?t=34282
U.S. Envoy to Iraq Applauds Passage of National Hydrocarbon Law
Op-ed by Ambassador Khalilzad links management of Iraqi oil, unification
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
04 March 2007 (News Blaze)
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Under the national hydrocarbon law approved this week by Iraq's Council of Ministers, oil will serve as a vehicle to unify Iraq and will give all Iraqis a shared stake in their country's future. This is a significant achievement for Iraqis' national reconciliation. It demonstrates that the leaders of Iraq's principal communities can pull together to peacefully resolve difficult issues of national importance.
Resolving concerns about control of oil is central to overcoming internal divisions in Iraq. The country has the third-largest oil reserves in the world, and more than 90 percent of federal income comes from oil revenue. The effective and equitable management of these resources is critical to economic growth as well as to developing a greater sense of shared purpose among Iraqi communities.
The goal of Iraq's leaders was to draft a law that ensured that all Iraqis could be confident they would receive their fair share of the benefits of developing the country's resources, that the revenue from oil and gas would enable a decentralization of power while maintaining national unity, and that Iraq would adopt the best international practices for the development and management of its mineral wealth. By these standards, the hydrocarbon law is a great success. It:
Reaffirms that oil and gas resources are owned by all the people of Iraq and contains a firm commitment to revenue-sharing among regions and provinces on the basis of population.
Establishes a predictable framework and processes for federal-regional cooperation that demonstrate the government's commitment to democracy and federalism.
Creates a principal policymaking body for energy - the Federal Council on Oil and Gas - that will have representatives from all of Iraq's regions and oil-producing provinces.
Ensures that all revenue from oil sales will go into a single national account and that provinces will receive direct shares of revenue, thereby significantly increasing local control of financial resources.
Establishes international standards for transparency and mandates public disclosure of contracts and associated revenue and payments. This is essential to build confidence in the new political order and to counter corruption.
The law defines a role for the Oil Ministry that is primarily regulatory, which is the modern standard and which will also harness the market to achieve the optimal development of Iraq's resources. It provides the legal framework to enable international investment in Iraq's oil and gas sectors, a break from the statist and overcentralized practices of the past. It also requires best practices in environmental protection and field management and development, ensuring that the environment is not damaged and that hydrocarbon assets are not wasted by poor practices of the past.
While the draft law will need to be enacted by the Iraqi Council of Representatives when it returns from recess, the prospects for passage are excellent because all the major parliamentary blocs are represented in the cabinet. Companion legislation will be required in several areas, and Iraqi leaders hope to complete the entire package of hydrocarbon legislation by the end of May.
Arriving at this agreement was not easy. It has taken other countries years to complete such legislation. While negotiating this law presented special challenges for the federal government, the Kurdistan regional government and the leaders of key political blocs, the approval of the draft by the Council of Ministers sets a precedent for problem-solving and cooperation that is critical to the stabilization and development of Iraq.
This is the first time since 2003 that all major Iraqi communities have come together on a defining piece of legislation. A national reconciliation that stabilizes Iraq can be achieved if similar compromises are made on the future of de-Baathification and on amending the constitution. The agreement on the oil law should give us confidence that Iraqis are willing and able to take the steps needed for Iraq's success.
Al Maliki gives insurgents ultimatum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baghdad, 05 March 2007 (Gulf News)
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Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki gave Iraqi insurgents an ultimatum on Sunday - either accept his peace offer, or face a crack-down the likes of which has not been seen before.
"We do not need to implement security measures except against those who reject the language of reconciliation and dialogue, those who insist on restoring the past," Al Maliki said, in a reference to Sunni Arab insurgents loyal to Saddam Hussein.
"We present in our hand a green olive branch, and in the other hand we present the law ... Operation Imposing Law started in Baghdad, it will cover every inch of Iraq."
In a later news conference, Al Maliki said he will soon reshuffle his government. Al Maliki told reporters he would rearrange the 39 cabinet portfolios within the next two weeks.
The planned move comes after the Iraqi National List, a secular party representing both Sunnis and Shiites, threatened to pull out of the coalition, accusing Al Maliki of pursuing a sectarian agenda.
US officials have also been putting pressure on Al Maliki to reform the Iraqi government around a new alliance of “moderates” from both the Shiite and Sunni communities.
Eye of the Storm
Chapter section from:
Airbridge to Berlin --- The Berlin Crisis of 1948, its Origins and Aftermath
By D.M. Giangreco and Robert E. Griffin
© 1988
(Used with permission)
...The forthcoming currency reform was not a surprise to the German population, but to hinder speculation and black marketing, the exact date of implementation was a secret. Rumors of the impending currency reform and preparations by authorities to set up facilities for the exchange of old currency for new appeared in newspapers throughout May and June 1948...
German authorities were also charged with the preparation of laws within a six month period for the equalization of financial burdens (Lastenausgleichgesetz). Tax reforms were to become effective as speedily as possible following the financial reform.
...As seen from the above, the currency reform was not a simple revaluation, but a comprehensive and complicated set of changes to wages, prices, public and private debt, exchange rates, banking reform, and burden sharing covered by several implementing laws whose full effect took months and years to fully realize. However, the currency reform in the Western zones did not take long to be declared a success. Only a month later, OMGUS stated:
"No event since the capitulation of the German armies has had such an impact upon every sector of German life as did the currency reform in the Western Zones, which became effective on 2O June 1948. Overnight the financial and commercial life of tens of millions of persons was transformed. The foundation, upon which normal ways of life could be reestablished, had been erected.
By the end of July 1948, it was evident that the first phase of currency reform had been successful. Basically the results have been those foretold by proponents of currency reform. The new money has brought out of hiding a relatively large and well assorted supply of goods. Wages and salaries have again acquired genuine purchasing power. Job efficiency has risen and there are indications of increased output in almost all fields of manufacturing."
http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistle...N_A/PAGE_3.HTM
'Mafia-like gangs' ready to join interior ministry
By Basil Adas
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baghdad, 05 March 2007 (Gulf News)
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In a controversial move more than 132,000 "Installation Guard" police members in Baghdad will finally join the Iraqi Interior Ministry after being under the responsibility of the ministries they are guarding and protecting for four continuous years.
Mezhir Razaqi, an Iraqi employee in an establishment affiliated to the Iraqi Ministry of Industry, told Gulf News: "The General Director in this bureau fears the guards, therefore his choices are limited."
Saham, an employee in the same establishment told Gulf News: "Calling the guards 'militias' does not describe all they do. They practice any felonious act, such as abduction, assassination and punching employees at the main entrance, they even impose taxes in forms of money or gifts. They are doing these acts on a large scale."
Accusations
There are widespread accusations against guards of forming mafia-like gangs and involvement in criminal acts for the benefit of terrorist militias.
"More than 40 per cent of Installation Guards are bogus who receive salaries without doing anything. Some of them are involved in terrorist operations, smuggling and looting resources themselves. They are essentially part of the financial and administrative corruption campaign in the country," Hassan Sari, an Iraqi state minister, told Gulf News.
"I am ready to testify against the guards who burgled a store's contents, valued at 150 million Iraqi dinars, in large vehicles. The warehouse and establishment's guards along with big names in the ministry are responsible for this extensive robbery," Salah, an employee in an enterprise affiliated to the Iraqi Ministry of Trade, revealed to Gulf News.
It has become imperative for any establishment to hire large numbers of security guards, due to the deterioration of the security situation in Baghdad.
Despite some measures taken by Nouri Al Maliki's government concerning the guards' violations, American and Iraqi forces have been arresting many of them for having suspected links to terrorist activities or for their involvement in direct assassinations.
CEC starts third year of Rebuild Iraq Recruitment Program (RIRP)
New challenges for the European Industry in Iraq
AME Info - [04/03/2007]
The third year after the beginning of the RIRP program shows that, the need for European companies to position themselves in the competitive environment in Iraq is more important than ever.
Already in the 70's and 80's German companies ran projects (e.g. infrastructure, water treatment, telecommunication and plant building) in Iraq and also took part in the UN "Oil for Food' Program. This makes them an essential and most welcome partner for the rebuilding of Iraq. Projects, managed and realized by German and European companies, contribute to an important part of the rebuilding of Iraq.
The latest events however demonstrate vividly how important it is to work with local employees who generate new business and monitor and manage new and ongoing projects on site.
Currently 18.700 Iraqi executives and specialists from all branches are registered with RIRP. In addition to this the RIRP has about 45.000 qualified engineers at its disposal through the cooperation with the Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. Through this cooperation and engagement the RIRP and the German Industry contribute to the rebuilding of Iraq.
One of the main site projects in the south of Iraq is the Khor Al Zubayr Private Freezone (KAZPZ). The RIRP is supporting the German-Iraqi Joint Venture Consortium, which is setting up the Free Zone near the Khor Al Zubayr port.
With the progression of the project, the Khor Al-Zubair Private Free Zone Development Company was established by the German-Iraq consortium which will realise the project under German authority.
"Economic development and free visible trade is the basis for the political and economic rebuilding of Iraq. The Khor Al-Zubair Private Free Zone will help to establish transparent business relations between International Investors and Iraq. Creating a reasonable Win Win Situation for both sides has top priority', says Mr. Arndt Fritsche, Head of Mission of the RIRP program.
Apart from the support of Iraqi industry and institutions, the Free Zone Project offers the International Industry the chance to establish their Iraq business in a relatively safe environment to take place in the economic recovery of Iraq.
In addition to this, the RIRP is setting up a Port training project which is supported by the German Government. The success of the Free Zone project depends on the professionalism of the port working force. Trainings and qualifications for executives and specialists in the fields of port logistic, storage logistic, administration, management, port security and engineering are about to be designed and developed.
To provide a solid basis for coming projects and requirements the training programs initialized and organised by RIRP for companies as well as public facilities become more and more important. These trainings ensure that the Iraqi specialists are in the best possible position to represent the companies on site in the most efficient way
The training initiatives organised by RIRP range from advanced training for engineers from the field of Plant- and Power Engineering for companies like ABB up to trainings for public facilities like the port of Khor Al Zubair. For the employees of Khor Al Zubair, in cooperation with HPTI (Hamburg Port Training Institute), trainings are realised to increase the efficiency of the handling capacity. These trainings take place in Germany and Kuwait.
The RIRP expanded its services for companies in the fields of consulting, tender support, project evaluation and public sector lobbying.
This way, member companies of the RIRP have the opportunity to obtain information about business opportunities, potential business partners, suppliers or vendors. Within these services the RIRP offers, on the basis of concrete inquiries, the evaluation of potential Iraqi business partners and companies from all branches for future cooperation.
Arab League: Iraq Must Defuse Conflict
By SALAH NASRAWI, Associated Press Writer
3 hours ago
Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa talks during a press ...
CAIRO, Egypt - The Iraqi government is responsible for defusing the sectarian violence tearing the country apart and should redraft the constitution and rescind laws that give preferential treatment to Shiites and Kurds, Arab foreign ministers said in a statement Sunday.
Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa also hinted that Arab governments may take their recommendations on stemming the violence in Iraq to the U.N. Security Council if the government's efforts to end the crisis fail.
Sunday's statement was the strongest sign yet from the mostly Sunni Muslim Arab governments in the Middle East that they blame the Iraqi government for the country's sectarian strife.
"The resolution of the conflict lies on the Iraqi government and the Iraqi leaders whose first responsibility should be to reactivate efforts for national reconciliation," the ministers said in a statement released after they met in Cairo.
In the statement, the ministers set forth several recommendations they want the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to consider before they give their full support to a regional conference on stabilizing Iraq that is scheduled to start Saturday in Baghdad.
Among the recommendations are expanding the political process to achieve broader participation of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, confronting sectarian tensions and working to eliminate them, speeding up constitutional reform, and ensuring the equal distribution of wealth.
The ministers also called for revoking an Iraqi law that dismissed senior members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party from the government and urged the government to pass a law that specifically says Iraqis should be treated equally based on their citizenship, not their religion or ethnicity.
In addition, they called on the Iraqi government to disband Shiite militias, end armed demonstrations and decide on a specific timeframe for the withdrawal of foreign troops.
Though Iraq's Cabinet last week endorsed a new oil law designed to distribute wealth equally among the population, it was not expected that al-Maliki would agree to all or even some of the Arab ministers' recommendations. The U.S. has also turned down calls for setting a date to withdraw its troops, which make up the vast majority of the foreign forces in Iraq.
Moussa went a step further in his comments, suggesting the U.N. Security Council should demand the reforms suggested by the Arab ministers.
"In my opinion, the mechanism (for ending the strife) should be through the Security Council, without that there will no solution," Moussa told reporters after Sunday's meeting.
Sunni Arab countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have been deeply disturbed by what they view as a Shiite bias on the part of Iraq's Shiite-led government as sectarian violence has flared in recent months. Earlier Sunday, the ministers had pledged to send representatives to the Baghdad meeting next weekend despite their reservations about the country's direction.
The Baghdad meeting, which is expected to be the first in a series of regional conferences, is an attempt by the Iraqi government to formulate ideas to stabilize the country. The U.S., Britain, Saudi Arabia and Syria have said they will attend.
Iran, which Baghdad also invited, has only said it will consider attending.
U.S. Hopes for Results in Iraq Outreach
By RYAN LENZ, Associated Press Writer
5 hours ago
YOUSSIFIYAH, Iraq - It was the kind of exchange that U.S. troops are counting on.
Medics treated an electrical burn on an Iraqi man injured doing home wiring. In return, he passed along a tip: Powerful local clan leaders have ordered a fresh crop of roadside bombs against U.S.-led forces.
The whispered warning _ in the shadow of a mosque believed to support Sunni insurgents _ is just what the soldiers want to hear as part of a new strategy to move some units off big, fortress-like bases and into outposts in Iraq's most violent places.
The plan hinges on hopes that increased contact with ordinary Iraqis will help soldiers separate innocent civilians from militants hiding among them, and try to rebuild a battered U.S. image after four years of fighting.
The shift also stands as an indirect indictment of the Pentagon's old counterinsurgency plans after years of losing touch with the Iraqi streets _ and access to the crucial rumor mills and informants.
"I live where I work. It puts me so much closer to the people. That's what this is all about. The people are the center of gravity in this fight," said Capt. Richard Ince, a native of Georgetown, Texas.
His company _ part of the Army's 2nd Battalion, 5th Cavalry Regiment _ has turned a water treatment plant into a military compound near Youssifiyah, a volatile area 12 miles south of Baghdad. It's in the so-called "Triangle of Death" because of relentless attacks on U.S. military units patrolling its dirt and gravel roads.
On Friday, he made the five-minute walk from the base to near the mosque in a grove of palm and pine trees on the outskirts of Youssifiyah. Until recently, such a stroll would have been considered foolhardy _ if not a breach of orders _ for U.S. forces.
Now, it's encouraged.
Troops quickly turned the stone courtyard of an abandoned home into an open-air clinic. They did not advertise their plans in advance, fearing insurgents could plot an attack. Instead, word was spread by knocking on a few doors and letting the local grapevine do the rest.
Within minutes, dozens of people waited behind razor wire for treatment. In Iraq, even humanitarian outreach is accompanied by full-bore security. Every patient was searched and even babies were patted down.
Medics doled out children's Tylenol and antibiotics to parents with sick children. A smiling sergeant was handing out rainbow-colored pencils and candies to youngsters when a man holding his arm approached.
It was charred by a serious electrical burn, which oozed blood. Then, through an interpreter, he told Ince about how local tribal chiefs had called for more roadside bombs in the area.
Ince nodded and spoke quietly into a radio.
Sgt. James Farris, 31, of Tullahoma, Tenn., who had been listening to the exchange, said soldiers have heard dozens of tips like this since they moved into their new post earlier this year.
Some were credible and others viewed with suspicion. But it's opening the channels that's needed, he said.
Along with the advantages, however, come risks. A coordinated attack last month on the outpost in Tarmiyah, about 30 miles north of Baghdad, killed two soldiers and wounded dozens more.
About two hours after the clinic outside Youssifiyah opened, it was ordered closed. Nurses rushed to pack crates. Soldiers, who had watched quietly through the morning, suddenly took defensive positions.
There was no direct threat. Ince simply didn't want to press his luck.
"The longer you stay out here, the more you open yourself to negative action," Ince said, rushing to leave. "When you're ahead at the craps table, that's when you pick up your chips and go home."
U.S., Iraqi Forces Enter Shiite Center
By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Writer
1 hour ago
BAGHDAD, Iraq - U.S. and Iraqi troops poured into Baghdad's main Shiite militia stronghold Sunday, encountering no resistance in the one-time Sadr City combat zones but testing the Shiites' commitment to the U.S.-promoted campaign to drive militants from the capital.
Outside Baghdad, U.S. soldiers described a raid last week that uncovered a suspected Sunni "torture site" and the rescue of two Iraqi captives, who apparently had been spared immediate execution because the militants' video camera broke and they wanted to film the killing.
The quiet but dramatic advance in Sadr City _ involving nearly 1,200 U.S. and Iraqi forces who didn't fire a shot _ marked one of the most significant developments in the security clampdown in Baghdad since it took effect nearly three weeks ago.
But it only received the green light after drawn-out talks between U.S. commanders and political allies of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his powerful Mahdi Army. Both sides are watching each other for any wrong moves on the same streets where they battled in the past, including intense urban warfare in 2004.
Al-Sadr's militiamen lowered their profile under intense government pressure to give the security operation a chance to root out both Sunni and Shiite extremists. U.S. military leaders, however, must walk a fine line as part of the tacit truce. They are seeking suspected Shiite death squads leaders, but must keep from squeezing al-Sadr's militia too hard _ and risk collapsing the entire drive to reclaim Baghdad from extremists and gangs.
"The indication that we are getting is a lot of the really bad folks have gone into hiding," said Lt. Col. David Oclander shortly after troops moved into Sadr City's teeming grid of low-rise buildings in northeast Baghdad.
Oclander said "not a shot was fired" as troops entered the area _ which was constructed in the 1960s to house poor Shiites seeking work in the capital and was known as Saddam City until the former Iraqi leader's fall in 2003.
As the insurgency picked up steam in the past few years, Sadr City became the site of frequent battles. Among the U.S. casualties was Spc. Casey Sheehan, whose death on April 4, 2004, began the anti-war campaign of his mother, Cindy Sheehan.
Last week, U.S. and Iraqi forces began pinpoint raids into Sadr City seeking suspected leaders of Shiite death squads blamed for thousands of execution-style slayings of Sunni rivals in recent years. Since Friday, military planners have worked inside a Sadr City police station in apparent preparations to create a permanent outpost, police said.
Despite the calm crossing into Sadr City, some quickly protested the strong U.S. presence.
An al-Sadr ally, lawmaker Falah Hassan, claimed the Sadr City pact called for Iraqi forces to lead the searches and only call in U.S. units if they faced resistance. He called the front-line U.S. role a "provocative act."
Al-Sadr, too, has complained about the heavy U.S. role in the raids around the city. In a statement last week, he also decried the security plan's inability to stop car bombs and other attacks blamed on Sunni insurgent groups against Shiite civilians.
The comments raised worries that he could order his Madhi Army to confront forces carrying out the security operation. But he didn't attempt to raise the stakes _ a possible sign of newfound caution from al-Sadr.
Late last year, Washington strong-armed Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki into pulling his protection for the firebrand cleric, who is based in the Shiite holy city of Najaf in southern Iraq and is a major political ally of the prime minister.
"We don't know if he has a change of heart, but certainly there is a change of tactic," the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, told CNN.
For a third consecutive day, Baghdad was spared a car bombing or attack bringing mass casualties. But there was still bloodshed. A Shiite newspaper editor and a police officer were gunned down.
After nightfall, U.S. artillery was heard across Baghdad. In recent days, U.S. gunners have hit suspected Sunni insurgent staging grounds south of the city.
Around the capital, U.S. forces reported the discovery of a series of weapons caches.
Troops taking part in one operation that began Wednesday also stumbled upon an apparent hide-out west of Baghdad that was used by Sunni insurgents for torture and summary executions.
Lt. Col. Valery Keaveny described breaking through a double-locked door to find an Iraqi police officer and another Iraqi man who had undergone "considerable torture." The policeman had been shot in both ankles and the other man had been dangling from the ceiling and "beaten severely by a pipe for a good deal of time," Keaveny told reporters.
The captives told U.S. soldiers they had been convicted to death by an insurgent court at the site _ about 18 miles west of Baghdad near the village of Karmah _ and had the choice of either beheading or a fatal gunshot, said Keaveny.
They were spared immediate death, Keaveny said, because the insurgents' video camera didn't work and they had gone to get a new one to film the executions. "(The insurgents) said they would be back in the morning," he said. "And that's when we came in, that night."
The two men were taken by U.S. forces for medical treatment.
The site also contained a huge stockpile of more than 1 million pounds of aluminum sulfate, which can be used as a component in nitrate-based fertilizer explosives. But it also has other commercial uses, including water purification. Aluminum sulfate was among the items found in the car of the so-called millennium bomber, Ahmed Ressam, an Algerian convicted in 2001 of plotting to bomb Los Angeles International Airport.
Elsewhere, the military said an airstrike Saturday in Arab Jabour, on the southern outskirts of Baghdad, forced insurgents to flee and leave behind four Iraqi hostages _ one claiming he had been held for 50 days.
On Saturday, an al-Qaida-affiliated group posted a video purporting to show the execution of 18 kidnapped government security forces. The Islamic State of Iraq said it carried out the killings _ with the victims being shot in the back of the head _ in retaliation for the alleged rape of a Sunni woman by members of the Shiite-dominated police last month.
The authenticity of the three-minute video could not be immediately verified.
The group also said it had killed 14 policemen, whose bodies were found Friday in the northeast province of Diyala. Some of the victims were decapitated, according to an AP photographer.
"It would be very helpful to the people of Iraq if civic and religious leaders, Sunni and Shia alike, would publicly denounce these horrific acts," said Maj. Gen. Benjamin R. Mixon, commander of U.S. forces north of Baghdad. "With many influential leaders making the same statement, the population will realize that these terrorists are not the future of Iraq."
Also Sunday, a kidnapped Iraqi defense official, Lt. Gen. Thamir Sultan, was freed after Iraqi security forces stormed a house where he had been held, a government spokesman said.
Three U.S. troops were killed in combat in Iraq's western Anbar province, the military said. One Marine and one sailor died Friday, and another Marine was killed Saturday, the military said in a statement. Their names were withheld pending family notification.
___
Ya. It is not looking good for PLUG.
Gasification May Be Key to U.S. Ethanol
Sunday, March 4, 2007 3:37 PM EST
The Associated Press
By DIRK LAMMERS
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) � The government awarded $385 million in grants last week aimed at jumpstarting ethanol production from nontraditional sources like wood chips, switchgrass and citrus peels. What's surprising is that half of the six projects chosen will use a process first discovered almost a century ago to turn coal into a gas.
President Bush set a goal in his State of the Union address of producing 20 percent of the nation's fuel supply from renewable resources by 2017. Much of those supplies will come from the conversion of corn into enthanol, fueled by a boom in new ethanol plant construction that's already under way.
But Thursday's forecast from the Agriculture Department that half of this year's U.S. corn crop will be consumed by ethanol producers has raised red flags. Critics say surging demand for corn could push up prices of everything from corn-sweetened soft drinks to meats, since corn is a common feed ingredient for livestock.
That helps explain why the Energy Department is placing a big bet on a process called gasification. Long hailed as a more environmentally friendly way to turn coal into electricity, the process might also provide a faster and eventually cheaper way to produce ethanol from a variety of renewable sources collectively known as biomass, some scientists say.
For corn-based ethanol plants, the process of producing ethanol is as simple as brewing beer: sugars are extracted from the corn kernels and then enzymes are added to ferment it into alcohol. But biomass feedstocks don't easily give up their starches, so more expensive steps are needed to ferment cellulose in high-pressure chambers that have limited amounts of oxygen, according to Lanny Schmidt, a University of Minnesota chemical engineer.
Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman pegged the current cost of gasification as being about twice as much as the average $1.10 per gallon cost at corn-based ethanol plants.
A gasifier turns plant material into a synthesis gas consisting mostly of carbon monoxide and hydrogen. The "syngas" then could be turned into a variety of fuels including ethanol, hydrogen and environmentally friendly versions of diesel or gasoline, Schmidt said.
"These gasifiers are some high-tech stuff with high pressures and some more complexities," he said. "But they're probably more versatile at the end of the day to modify them as the demand and supplies change."
Gasification is a fairly simple process, based on chemistry developed in the 1920s, said Robert Brown, an Iowa State University chemical engineering professor and director of the school's Office of Biorenewables Programs.
The syngas produced during gasification mixes more readily with chemical catalysts, so it could be more easily turned into other fuels, chemicals and materials. Just add steam and you could produce hydrogen to power a fuel-cell vehicle, Brown said.
Of the six companies awarded U.S. Department of Energy grants, three will use versions of fermentation technology. But two others will use gasification and one will use a hybrid of both technologies:
� Alico Inc., a LaBelle, Fla.-based agribusiness company, would get up to $33 million to turn yard waste, wood waste and citrus peel into syngas, which would then be converted into ethanol, electricity and hydrogen.
� Range Fuels Inc., of Broomfield, Colo., would get up to $76 million for a plant near Soperton, Ga., to convert timber scraps into syngas to make ethanol and methanol.
� Abengoa Bioenergy, a St. Louis-based division of Spain's Abengoa SA, would receive up to $76 million for an 11.4 million gallons-per-year plant in Colwich, Kan., that would use both biochemical and thermochemical processes to convert corn stalks, wheat straw and switchgrass.
The Energy Department helped demonstrate the viability of gasification in the mid-1990s when it awarded Georgia-based FERCO $9.2 million to help build a power plant running on wood chips. By 2001, the $18 million plant in Burlington, Vt., was generating more than 200 megawatt-hours of electricity a day.
To compete in the marketplace, companies will have to make sure their feedstock supplies are consistent, do more research into catalysts that turn syngas into fuels, and develop better materials to contain the thermochemical reactions, according to the Energy Department.
The syngas would have to be cleaned and conditioned to remove contaminants, which is an expensive task. Energy officials say companies will have to bring down those costs if they're to compete in the market.
Mark Paster, a U.S. Department of Energy technology development manager who's studying ways to turn biomass into hydrogen, said both fermentation and gasification "are very viable and both routes continue to be researched and developed."
Paster said biomass helps reduce greenhouse gasses, so any method that can reach commercial viability will be better than one based on fossil fuel.
"There may not be a single winner, just like there's no winner in how we produce electricity," he said. "We do it in a variety of ways."
This has prolly been asked before.
Is there any way we can change the time to our own time zone?
Was some talk about the Russians being interested in it.
Plug Power (PLUG/NASDAQ $3.73)
www.plugpower.com
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Sept 30th - net cash approx. $270 million U.S. ($2.12/share)
shares fully diluted: 127 million
Revenue is marginal - near $6 million for 2006 (development stage)
It would be difficult to have missed all the media this past week over Global Warming. The state of California has taken the most proactive approach recently by banning power companies from buying electricity from high-polluting sources, including most out-of-state coal-burning plants. In Bush's recent state-of-the-union address, he also approved billions in funding to develop alternative energy sources. Thanks to Bush and the United Nations report on global warming, alternative energy is back in the limelight.
World Class Technology
Plug Power designs and develops on-site energy systems, based on proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell technology, for energy consumers worldwide. Their technology platform includes proprietary PEM fuel cell and fuel processing technologies, from which multiple products are being offered or are under development.
They are currently offering for commercial sale thier GenCore® product, a backup power product for telecommunications, broadband, utility and industrial uninterruptible power supply (UPS) applications. The GenCore is fueled by hydrogen and does not require a fuel processor. They are also developing additional products, including a continuous power product, with optional combined heat and power capability for remote small commercial and remote residential applications.
PLUG is smallcap by U.S. standards but for us, it's abnormally large. I am presenting it for diversification, long term investing, and possibly pension accounts. It is trading at the low end of their chart and I believe the downside risk is limited to low $3's which were tested a couple weeks ago. The recent media is contributing to a cleanup that started just over a week ago.
Potential for Buyout by Russia's Norilsk ?
This past summer, Interros, a major Russian investment firm, and Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of nickel and palladium, invested $217 million in exchange for shares of Class B Capital Stock that are convertible into 39.5 million shares of common stock (factored into the shares outstanding above). The purchase price per share of common stock in the transaction, on an as-converted basis, is $5.50 - on a converted basis, these two Russian companies own 35% of PLUG.
The fundamentals have continued to improve since this investment was made by the Russian investors, but the share price continued to drift lower. If it was to drop near $3, we could see the company as a takeover target because of its cash value, and significant value of the technology - almost $3/4 Billion has been invested in this company since startup.
I typically have little interest in alternative energy companies but these guys are very well funded, have huge backers, and own some of the most advanced fuel cell technology in the world. As you'll see from two recent news releases, the U.S. and European governments are also prepared to back them.
Plug Power To Receive $8.6M in DOE Funding
LATHAM, N.Y., Oct. 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Plug Power Inc. , a leader in providing clean, reliable on- site energy products, has been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to receive three separate awards totaling $8.6 million for hydrogen fuel cell research, development and demonstration projects.
Specifically, Plug Power will receive:
* $4 million for development and demonstration of an ethanol-based, grid-connected system with the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center's Construction Engineering Research Laboratory
* $3.6 million for the international development and demonstration of a high temperature combined heat and power proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell system targeted for multi-family home applications.
* $1 million for the development of a new design for a prototype 1kW PEM fuel cell stack
European Commission Funding
LATHAM, N.Y., Dec. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Plug Power Inc. and Vaillant Group of Germany have been selected by the European Commission to receive a grant for the international development and demonstration of three high temperature combined heat and power proton exchange membrane (HT- PEM) fuel cell system prototypes.
"This grant helps Plug Power and its partners accelerate the application of fuel cell systems as heat and power sources for commercial and residential structures," said Dr. Roger Saillant, Plug Power's CEO. "Moreover, the project sets an exciting precedent for the future of fuel cell development as a response to the increasing global demand for transformational clean energy products."
The European Commission will provide euro 2.5 million in funding for the project, which is estimated to have a total value of more than euro 11 million over a two- year period. In October, the U.S. Department of Energy awarded $3.6 million to support the international collaboration. This is the first cooperative program in fuel cell technology between the two government entities.
"Vaillant Group and Plug Power have successfully developed and tested three generations of micro combined heat and power fuel cells for more than six years. The project is a consequent further step in our partnership and offers a great potential to improve technology based on HT-PEM," said Dr. Michel Brosset, Vaillant Group's Managing Director. "We are looking forward to this very interesting international collaboration."
SUGAR STRATEGIES
The "green" revolution toward the global use of more environment friendly fuels has opened new avenues of demand for corn and soybeans that were nonexistent just a few years ago, and this may develop into an even greater demand outlet for sugar. The use of sugar by the energy industry is becoming a major source of demand for that commodity, and it has the potential to grow substantially in coming years as more countries adopt clean fuel policies and take initiatives to lower their dependence on oil imports. Sugar based ethanol being one of the most cost efficient biofuels available certainly widens its appeal. Like corn and soybeans, the sugar market's transition from a "food" commodity to a "fuel" commodity has the potential to send prices sharply higher as the trade looks beyond record production estimates and begins to factor in the coming explosion in biofuel industry demand.
While Japan has lagged in the global transition to biofuels, it is a potentially huge market. As the world's second largest consumer of gasoline, they certainly have a motivation to reduce their oil dependency. Japan is the only Asian country with a UN carbon emissions cap, and Japan has agreed to cut its CO2 emissions by 6% under the Kyoto Protocol. This would mean that 500,000 kiloliters of gasoline consumption a year would have to be replaced by biofuels. If the US were to allow more duty-free imports from Brazil in an attempt to increase the percentage of biofuel usage for the short term, the current world production surplus of sugar could quickly dissipate. When considering the current supply outlook for sugar, it is understandable why prices have been under pressure, falling as they have from 18.54 cents per pound in April 2006 to a recent low at 9.99 cents in February 2007. The International Sugar Organization pegged world sugar consumption for the 2006/2007 season at 153 million tonnes, up 3 million from last year. The ISO anticipates a world production surplus of 7.2 million tonnes, and the USDA is projecting a world sugar surplus of 9.1 million. Weather in Brazil, politics in the energy sector and energy prices will have a significant impact on the balance sheets looking foreword.
The technical action in sugar last week indicated that a significant low may have been put in place. After a nine month bear trend, May sugar managed to gap above the key downtrend line from the July, December and early February highs. Since the October lows when May sugar first dipped under 11.00, open interest increased 295,291 contracts to a record high of 720,603 contracts. The move to an 11-session high on February 12th sparked a record volume of trade at 217,398 contracts, which seemed to be a key turning point for the market. On February 15th, the market gapped the downtrend line to a 27-session high. This has left fund traders in a weak position and the market vulnerable to significant short- covering ahead. Since the April 19, 2006 highs, the market has followed an 18- day cycle that managed to anticipate the July, August and October highs. The next cycle dates to watch for fall on February 28th and March 26th. Look for indications of lows, highs or an acceleration of the trend on these dates. Given the weak fundamentals, traders should first consider option plays which do not cost much to put on but may see a good return if the market were to see a major turn soon.
Suggested Trading Strategies: 1) Sell the October sugar 10.50 call near 78 and buy 3 of the October sugar 12.00 calls at 26 each. The spread will not hurt the trader if the trend remains down, but on a recovery bounce to 12.50, the 10.50 call should be near 211 (for a 133 point loss) and the 12.00 calls should be near 105 points (+79 gain each) for a gain of 104 points on the spread. 2) Sell the May sugar 10.00 call and buy the July sugar 10.00 call for a net premium paid of 10 points. If the timing is right, the investor may receive a cheap look at the upside once the May call expires on April 13th. (Future option values are based on pricing models and are not guaranteed.)
COCOA STRATEGIES
In keeping with the temporary corrective posture that we talked about in the introduction, traders might consider the cocoa market to be vulnerable to near term corrective action. In addition to the cocoa market building its spec and fund long position to a lofty 51,000 contracts, it should be noted that the May cocoa market managed another $51 a ton rally into last week's highs, and that means the COT report might be somewhat understating the size of the spec long in cocoa. In other developments, it should be noted that recent arrival data has seemingly recovered and the severity of the supply shortfall seems to have been temporarily mitigated. However, in our mid December 2006 Special Report on cocoa entitled "Cocoa: The Sleeper Market of 2007," we predicted that cocoa would rally to $1,850 per ton on the back of generally tightening supply and demand considerations. So far, the secondary forces that we suggested could support a further rally to $2,100 and perhaps higher have not yet materialized. While recent demand indicators have been positive, they really haven't picked up any momentum. Therefore, we fear a moderate setback off a lack of fresh fundamental news. In addition to the recent COT report hinting at an overdone speculative condition, it should also be noted that the February 16th spike high was accompanied by a huge spike in open interest, and that suggests to us that the market has reached a temporarily overvalued level on the charts. Our pick for a "temporary" correction in December cocoa is a normal retracement off the January and February rally or a slide to $1,781, but a slide to the 50% retracement of that same move could also allow for a spike down washout to $1,759. Some players have suggested that a gap situation around the 50% retracement zone might need to be closed by a trade to $1,748 before the bigger picture uptrend pattern can resume. Longer term, we still expect demand growth to slowly chew down supply, as new consumers and favorable diet/health issues push cocoa into more diets throughout the world. In the event that adverse weather expands in the African production region, the La Nina impact somehow impacts Pacific production or Ivory Coast tensions return, it would not be difficult for cocoa prices to attempt a return to the 2002 range of $2,000 to $2,250.
Suggested Trading Strategy: 1) Longs in the May contract might decide to bank profits and wait for a correction in the December cocoa to $1,748 to roll forward. Use an objective of $1,890 and risk the trade to a close below $1,705. 2) Wait for a correction to $1,750 to buy a December cocoa $1,900 call for 110. Use an objective of 277 and risk the call to a close below 45.
ECATTLE STRATEGIES
In our last newsletter, we laid out the potential short term bearish factors for the livestock markets and bearish strategies to take advantage of a potential break in the weather and surge in meat production. The selling strategies worked out well but the trades were short term in nature, as the initial phase of a shift in corn from a food to an energy market is likely to cause the jump in feedgrain prices to be passed on to the consumer in the form of higher meat prices. Without sharply higher feedgrain prices or a collapse in the world economy, the outlook for pork and beef prices into the summer is bullish, as both pork and beef production back away from the burdensome levels seen late last year and early this year.
For the Cattle on Feed report (to be released just after this writing) the market expects to see December feedlot placements down near 16% from last year. This would be the 6th month in a row of lower placements. If placements are down enough, on-feed supply may dip under year ago levels for the first time in the last 16 months. Marketings are expected to be in the range of 99.7-106% of last year and on-feed supply near 96.4%-99%. The numbers suggest that once the market absorbs the heavy upfront supply of cattle, feedlot supply will eventually drop and that available supply will tighten into the spring.
In the last five years 2nd quarter beef production has come in about 400 million pounds to 625 million pounds above the 1st quarter production. The USDA projects an increase of just 440 million pounds for 2007. This number is likely to be revised lower in the months just ahead as the USDA takes into account the sharp drop in average weights, the excessive loss of younger cattle from this past winter and the impact of the sharp drop in marketings. On top of the drop in production, the market must also absorb the slow but steady progress in rebuilding the export market for US beef. As the declining production clashes with the improving demand for beef typically seen in the spring, June cattle appears to have significant upside potential.
June cattle are still operating under the negative influence of the February 14th reversal from the contract high. Look to buy corrective breaks or position with bullish option plays on a corrective break into late February.
Suggested Trading Strategies: 1) Buy June cattle at 91.02 with an objective of 95.77. Risk to a close under 90.32. 2) Buy June cattle futures and sell the June cattle 96 call and use the premium to pay for part of a June 91 put. Hold for a run to 95.77 in June cattle. If the market breaks first, lift the June 91 put on a break to 90.77 and also lift the June call and use a 65 point stop in the long futures leg.
CORN STRATEGIES
A reversal from a contract high on February 20th for May corn combined with a record net long position of the fund trader and continued talk of an enormous jump in planted area has corn bulls nervous that a top is in place. While it may sound logical to expect a setback in prices into the key March 30th planted acreage report, it seems unlikely that the market will see a major break ahead of the growing season with extremely tight stocks at the end of the 2006/2007 season and weather uncertainty for the coming year.
Talk of a La Nina weather event into the summer, which might bring drier than normal weather to parts of the Midwest this year, was the foundation of the rally to the new contract highs on February 20th. On top of increased plantings from cotton and soybeans, there is some talk that the wet areas of southern Illinois which were planted to winter wheat could be plowed up and planted for corn or soybeans this spring. Spring wheat, peanut and tobacco areas are also under the gun to see a shift to corn.
So far, the move in corn prices above $4.00 per bushel has scared the trade into thinking that corn usage will drop off dramatically, but this has not been the case. Ethanol production was a record high in the last reporting month and livestock producers are struggling to make profits, but there is little talk of a significant liquidation in numbers to see a significant drop in usage. Weekly US export sales for corn came in at 1.389 million metric tonnes last week, which was well above trade expectations between 700,000 and 900,000. Cumulative sales have already reached 64.8% of the USDA forecast for the entire season (see chart) as compared to 53.9% on average over the last five years. Sales of 686,000 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate.
While there is a possibility of a 50 cent break from the highs, we still believe that a $1.00 rally is more likely than a break into the March 30th report. In addition, the market has already illustrated the extreme sensitivity to weather for the coming year.
Suggested Trading Strategy: Buy 1 July corn futures contract and buy 2 of the December 360 puts for 14 1/2 cents each. Use 448 and then 498 in the July futures as next upside objectives. On a 40 cent corrective break, the trader will be in a position to exit one or both of the puts for around 30 cents each and hold the futures for a look at the early growing weather.
Weekly Update March 4, 2007
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Hudson Resources (HUD.V $1.21)
What a difference a year makes ! Hudson was originally featured December 5th 2005 at $0.36 and ten days ago was trading at $2.30 (gain of 539% at its peak). Our last updates came late 2006 in the 0.80's but underwhelming diamond results last week resulted in heavy selling (it also didn't help that the overall market was selling off). This only emphasizes what we've always said with small and microcaps - the importance of selling in stages when gains present themself. With Hudson, the market was looking for something more substantial to indicate their deposit is economic, and we haven't seen that yet. Diamond plays take a long time to mature and this one is proving no different. At this stage I believe our coverage of Hudson going forward will be very limited.
Bioscrypt (BYT.T $0.85)
www.bioscrypt.com
Last updated Jan 8/07 at $0.60, we were fortunate to watch BYT gain 100% by early February. Its been under pressure this past month but it remains our best tech in the security/biometric space for 2007. Financials were released Wednesday and were in line with expectation. They reported $5 million in revenue for Q4 with only a small loss (this was important to see).
Gryphon Gold (GGN.T $1.02)
www.gryphongold.com
We started coverage mid $0.70's in December, a few weeks after the stock collapsed from $1.40. It fell hard after announcing revisions to a feasibility study for its Nevada-based Borealis gold project due to an over- estimation of the resource (the study was done by Samuel Engineering, an independent consulting firm). The result was a lower annual gold production and higher per-ounce production costs. A financing and decision to proceed with production were therefore delayed.
Thursday afternoon the company released excellent drill results and the stock initially ran to $1.20 on strong volume before correcting near close. These are only the first 3 holes of a $4.5 million 72 hole drill program in their Borealis district. Of particular importance is a drill intercept of 165 ft grading 0.21 ozs/ton (7.3 g/tonne). As previously indicated, the exploration potential on this property is excellent (in addition to what they already have) and these first few holes are a very good leading indicator.
Comments (below) from my update to our paid subscribers on Jan 12th are applicable.
Tonight they provided the results of the re-estimation of their gold resource model making it 43-101 compliant (TSX strict guideline). The importance here, is that they are proving they have the following gold reserves on their Borealis project in Nevada;
Measured & Indicated 1.2 million ounces / Inferred 0.6 million
silver - approx. 8 million measured and indicated, 8 million inferred
A good way to reduce risk when speculating on gold stocks, is to use a valuation model that is quite conservative. Even with gold near $600, you still need to discount a tremendous amount to arrive at a realistic value. This includes operating costs, discounted cash flows, capital costs of a mine, etc. etc. - in a hot sector 90% of investors would just throw this notion out the window but in this market, you cannot afford to do that.
I have found an excellent benchmark is to use U.S. $25/oz. of gold in the measured & indicated category (when 43-101 compliant and if the grade is at least 2 grams/tonne). If we apply this to GGN's current reserves on Borealis, we can value this property at $30 million U.S. and throw in another $6 million for the inferred ($10/oz).
Rough estimates then peg fair value at $36 million U.S. X 1.12 / 41 million shares outstanding. This would realistically make their 1.8 million oz. of gold worth $0.98/share cdn. This excludes the silver. This also excludes their neighboring Graben zone which has proven approx. 1/2 million oz. and which should add another $0.30/share in value. Interesting to note that last year they hit a very strong hole of 556ft averaging 3 grams per ton on the Graben zone.
So realistically, this deposit should carry a value in the range of $1.30/share. Their property encompasses approx. 30 square miles and there are six known similar geological targets for exploration in 2007. Existing shareholders were (are) very upset that this project never went into production, but treating it purely as an exploration play, means we can still assume very good risk while they continue to drill in 2007.
Danny Deadlock
Microcap.com
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email: microcap@telus.net
web: http://www.microcap.com
Quietness in Heet following Security Plan
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Ramadi, 04 March 2007 (Al-Sabaah)
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Law of preventing cars entry supposed by the Iraqi police on Heet city in Anbar province since three weeks reflected positively on the calm situation in the city.
Worth mentioning that Heet which witnessing a terror actions, suffered from curfew on persons and cars since 15 January then lifted after 4 days but stayed on cars curfew.
On the other hand, some residents mentioned that they walking many kilometers every day to reach the city and buy some needs. Another person said that he returned back later from Syria but he surprised from preventing his car entry.
Referring that, some persons praised the new security plan of curfew cars which led their city to a ruling and calmness in spite of their delaying in going to the around cities but it is more safe for all
Many displaced families back to Diala
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Diala, 04 March 2007 (Al-Sabaah)
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Positive effects of security plan in Baghdad began to reflect on rest of country's provinces especially neighborhood to the capital as Brigadier Shaker Alka'abi commander of 5th division at Iraqi army in Diala declared about returning 35 displaced families to many areas at the province after provide security for it.
Alka'abi stressed at his meeting with tribes sheikhs in Diala that main aim of his forces at recent stage is closing entering and exit accesses on face of terror groups and control hot areas to success Baghdad's security plan
World supports Baghdad's approach to enforce security
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Baghdad, 04 March 2007 (Al-Sabaah)
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International support continuous to hold a conference in Baghdad attended by US, Iran, Syria, permanent members at UNSC, Iraq neighbors, Egypt and Bahrain.
Statements of officials at these countries refer to comprehensive will to solve Iraq's crisis and support Maliki's Govt. to impose security in Iraq.
Observers said that success of the Govt. especially at security plan and its serious resolution to counter terror made the world eager to help it of enforcement security.
Security Forces Arrest, Kill 39 Wanted
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Baghdad, 04 March 2007 (Al-Sabaah)
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Security forces killed 11 terrorists and captured other 13 while arrested 15 suspects including 5 most wanted through breaking in their dens while 4 innocents martyred and other 13 wounded resulted from the terror actions.
A statement issued by US military forces mentioned that their forces killed 8 terrorists in Salman Pak district aimed Qaeda organization in Iraq, then killed 2 terrorists while planting a bomb in Kirkuk city.
On the other hand, Iraqi military forces could arrested 5 terrorists and found two bombs factories manufacturing. They also captured other 6 terrorists in Faloja city aimed another position for Qaeda organization in Iraq, arrested other 15 suspects including 5 most wanted in Baquba
Dwight Yoakam & Buck Owens
Dwight Yoakam - Turn It On, Turn It Up, Turn Me Loose
Dwight Yoakam - A Thousand Miles From Nowhere
Dwight Yoakam Live: Guitars Cadillacs 1986
Randy Travis ~ Forever And Ever Amen
Patty Loveless- Blame It On Your Lyin' Cheatin' Heart
Patty Loveless - Jealous Bone
Patty Loveless-I Try To Think About Elvis
I took a case! You too!
Have fun and I'll catch you later!
Lynyrd Skynyrd - Sweet Home Alabama