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BDCO I don't think anyone can accuse them of being masters of PR. ha. They finally announce some news on their debt and defaults, and they release it after-hours right before Thanksgiving. Oh well. It's good to at least have a little more clarity on where it all stands:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-dolphin-announces-veritex-forbearance-234000495.html
Thank you, Sir. And right back at you, Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Oh sheesh, thanks, I must have scrolled right past that.
NG - The Freeport closure has been odd. I'd be surprised if it re-opened in any way before next year. I think this is now the third time that the re-start date has been pushed pack. And this time, the Feds even put out a public statement basically saying, come on Freeport, get your full of report of the incident to us so we can get moving. Then finally Freeport handed it in, but they haven't even started any repair work yet. So the odds seem very low of the Feds having no disagreements or suggestions on the plan, they approve it almost immediately, then all the repair work gets done in a week or two, then the Feds come in and do final inspection of the repairs to approve any sort of re-opening . . . and all of these things occur during the holiday season?
Anything's possible, but it seems unlikely.
Fully Diluted Share Count?
Bob, I'm fairly new to the story. Sounds like Art is convinced they're full funded and won't need to raise anymore. But my question is, after all the raises and the latest warrant exercise, what is the fully diluted share count right now? (Anyone else feel free to chime in also)
Sure wish the media would stick to reporting facts, rather than "citing sources close to the situation" or whatever other euphemisms they want to use to print rumors.
Never had less trust in all media. WSJ used to be pretty reliable, but just recently I think they were also the ones reporting "the fed might pivot" based on "conversations with so and so."
Just like the energy etfs, nearly all the oil and gas services etfs have gaps in their charts quite a bit further down. OIH, XES, IEZ, PXJ
Freeport now says targeting mid-December. Sounds doubtful especially when they just submitted their proposed remedial paperwork to the Feds. So they're gonna get approval from the feds on a super short timeline, then get the work done in just a couple of weeks, with Thanksgiving holiday in between? Sounds very dubious to me:
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9753&intAcc_ID=77
creede, the real irony is that LMB has done better than my oil and gas stocks. lol
I'm with you on t-bills gilead. 8-week, 13-week, and 17-week have been what I'm sticking to.
Starting to feel like energy stocks are struggling to move higher.
I'm not big into all the voodoo charting, but gaps getting filled is something the I've noticed over the years does tend to happen, for whatever reason. A lot of the energy indices have gaps quite a bit below where we are now, plus we've come a long way pretty quickly.
XLE currently around 90 has a gap at 74.48:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xle&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
FENY currently around 25 has a gap at 20.55:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=feny&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
PSCE currently around 11 has a gap at 8.88
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=psce&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
We'll see what happens. (Now watch energy stocks blast higher! lol)
Starting to feel like energy is struggling to move higher.
I'm not big into all the voodoo charting, but gaps getting filled is something the I've noticed over the years does tend to happen, for whatever reason. A lot of the energy indices have gaps quite a bit below where we are now, plus we've come a long way pretty quickly.
XLE currently around 90 has a gap at 74.48:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xle&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
FENY currently around 25 has a gap at 20.55:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=feny&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
PSCE currently around 11 has a gap at 8.88
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=psce&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
We'll see what happens. (Now watch energy markets blast higher! lol)
BDCO - ha Bmrboy. I guess my ultimate take on BDCO is it's not a little risk, but a lotta risk. Hweb probably uses the better term of it's a gamble. Because to me, the risk is existential, as in, the company might not exist tomorrow. Lenders very clearly still have the right to accelerate the loan, foreclose, do whatever.
On the flipside, the reason the trading pattern of the stock kind of makes sense to me (moves up into earnings, then crashes after), is that if/when the company ever does say they are no longer in default on their debts, well, now you have a very different risk level and you really could see the price move up 3-5 times in a period of days, weeks, or months. The company *claims* to have made $23m in net income in 9 months, and yet they're STILL not out of default on $63m in debt?
To be fair, the company now shows $6m in cash, (but mgt says this will be used in the near term to re-pay past due amounts to Veritex). Company also shows about $16.5 more in inventory. So, if it's all true, it sort of jibes as to where the $23m went. And debt (excluding accrued interest) is down about $5.5m, so maybe some progress is being made. But doesn't seem like they're out of the woods. The share count has also increased by 2m or about 17%
And probably the biggest issue for me is that you have a CEO that is purposely keeping shareholders in the dark regarding the defaults. That's not good. Anybody on this board knows full well that if we were CEO and trying to give an honest picture to our shareholders, we KNOW the sharedholders would want and deserve to know about the default situation. Is it improving, what's the gameplan, what's the timeline, what's being done, are we paying off one at a time, or a little to every lender to keep them all happy? Instead, in press releases CEO boasts only about the income statement and doesn't even mention defaults. If you just read the press releases and not the filings, you wouldn't even know the company is deeply in debt and default.
I never like to see that kind of differential disclosure. So I think you kind of have to know, going in, that you're dealing with mgt that is less than forthcoming, on purpose. What else might they be purposely hiding?
So it's sort of a hold your nose and take a small gamble type of situation for me.
BDCO Bought a small amount at 1.20 and have some more orders in the low 1.10s. But I still consider it to be pretty risky. Don't know for sure how much of it is true. Lots of related party, affiliated company stuff. High interest loans in default, etc. It's dicey
BDCO - Earnings PR out today, but it's not helping much:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/bdco/news/Blue-Dolphin-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Results-Third-Consecutive-Quarter-of-Strong-Operational-Performance?id=380568
Thank you, Sir.
Freeport just yesterday 11/15 came out with its root cause report on the accident. No timeline for restart. I believe the Feds still have to review the report and plan and they may have additional recommendations.
All of this during the holidays.
Looking more like next year before restart:
http://www.newsrouter.com/NewsRouter_Uploads/77/Freeport%20LNG%20Provides%20Summary%20of%20Root%20Cause%20Failure%20Analysis%20Report%20on%20June%208%20Incident.pdf
Have you talked to mgt? I guess I'm wondering if they plan on running it as an ongoing business or if they're preparing for the company for sale
Maybe finally turning the corner? Any further updates you're aware of, other than the filings?
BDCO Yeah, I've been trading it here and there too, I'm just not surprised by the decline given the continued default position, the affiliate ownership and revenue, customer concentration, etc. It's got plenty of warts
BDCO In my opinion it's still due to no addressing of the debt in default. Maybe one day they'll announce that they're no longer in default and all has been cured, but until then I think the skepticism will remain
ACDC Good article giving company history:
https://oggn.com/blog/building-an-empire-bricklaying-hydraulic-fracturing-and-the-wilks-family-legacy/
I also hassled Ihub to change ACDC board to ProFrac. Unfortunately, they wouldn't remove the old messages (1 thru 61) which are about and entirely different Canadian company:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/ProFrac-Holding-Corp-ACDC-38954
ProFrac symbol change to ACDC from PFHC:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/profrac-holding-corp-to-change-ticker-symbol-to-acdc-on-november-2-301664973.html
ProFrac bought US Well Services in Nov '22:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/profrac-holding-corp-closes-on-us-well-services-inc-acquisition-301664765.html
ProFrac IPO May 2022, not a reverse merger:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/profrac-holding-corp-prices-initial-public-offering-301546651.html
Freeport Restart Likely Delayed to January
Color me not surprised:
https://www.energyintel.com/00000184-688f-d8b5-ab9f-ef8f4ffd0001
I remember they unexpectedly did an offering at $12, so those investors may yet make some money. Things crumbled after the offering.
Just trying to refresh my memory, was this originally a SPAC deal and that's why it had warrants? Or were the warrants just part of an ordinary financing? Do you remember?
Seems like SPAC deals can sometimes be good businesses, but tend to over-inflate their own story initially
LMB posted decent earnings. Came across it in earnings releases. Haven't followed LMB in many months and my last post here was exactly a year ago! Man, how time flies
Minn Fed Pres Says Talk of Pivot Entirely Premature
"We are a long-long-long way away from that," says Neel Kashkari, Pres of Minn Fed in response to a question about the govt servicing $30tril in debt at higher rates. Regarding the servicing of the debt, he says that's not our responsibility, doesn't even come into my thinking, that's Congress and the Treasury.
I ain't saying his answer makes any sense, so please don't shoot the messenger. (I think it's absurd that the fed even exists. They get to control and front-run markets, and they pay no price for being wrong)
Video link below is timed to start at the question, answer runs about 3min):
Te
Seems that not only was the red wave priced in, but it never came:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhHyn1HXEAECX9B?format=jpg&name=small
NOVVW with some buying for some reason this morning
Seeing an alarming number of articles and talks about how it will take days or weeks to count the votes, so the result may not be known by tomorrow. And frankly, that may have an impact on markets. When we had less technology, all the votes used to be counted by the end of election night. That's how it should be, in my opinion. Paper ballots, ID required to vote, votes all counted on election day. Vote in person, or absentee, but no drop boxes. Drop boxes for ballots leave too much chance for fraud, by either party, especially when you'll know how many votes are needed to win
SRTS I don't quite understand the huge drop. I guess people were looking for sequential growth? Or some analyst put out earnings estimates and then it's "they missed expectations!" I certainly wasn't expecting the stock to get cut in half in two days, so I'm probably not the best judge of it being a buying opp. ha. Had sold quite a few shares on the way up, but now I have some stink bids in. Q3 tends to be a little lower normally because that's summer vacation time for Doctors, plus they were affected somewhat by the hurricane. CEO is fairly conservative and pointed out some of the risks but reiterated that Q4 tends to be their strongest quarter of the year.
Fed Notes. Pretty good, concise thread on Powell's remarks:
Massive Fed meeting, and huge market reaction.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) November 2, 2022
A thread that breaks down what happened, step by step.
1/
NILFs - Hadn't heard this term before, but referring to men of prime working age who are "not in the labor force".
Pretty good article:
https://nypost.com/2022/11/02/disturbing-rise-of-the-nilfs-men-not-in-the-labor-force/
431 shares traded is the secret Q-Anon code to indicate that Elon Musk is going to allow Trump back on Twitter so long as he shares an account with JFK, Jr (who is still alive, by the way) and then the two of them are going to run for Pres/VP on the 2024 ticket, after Trump has had transgender surgery and changed his name to Deana, attempting to become the first-ever woman to be elected President, just because he wants to piss off both the conservatives and the liberals . . . and the chicks on The View.
At least that's what a 431 share trade meant last year, but as you intimated, the secret codes change periodically so it may mean something different now.
Gotta love that Elon at least has a sense of humor. On Twitter he has changed his profile to "Twitter Complaint Hotline Operator" ha:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk
I'm not too much into the crypto stuff, but I'll give it a look. Will be interesting to see if Elon can do much with Twitter. Seems like he and Jack Dorsey are pretty tight and I think Jack is more of a bitcoin guy.
Thanks again!
Thank you, Sir!