is Retired - a status to which everybody should aspire
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You also seem to have missed the point I was making.
Everybody, except the few well known naysayers, take it as read that he trial has succeeded and we will all "rake in the money". I hope that this will be the case. However, I've seen trials which on the observable evidence was working as pr3edicted and I've never seen so many crestfallen and shocked scientists when the revealed data showed that the agent on trial was no better than injectable saline.
I've been invested for 9 years so I think I can be classed as a believer but even now I'm not making plans for the money I don't (yet) have in my hand.
"Don't count your chickens before they're hatched"
Old advice but as good today as when it first was given long ago.
Gary, Sweden provides a good pointer of "what if..." as the only European country to have decided against lock-down and relied on its public spirited population to maintain safe "social distancing".
On May 8th (granted a few weeks ago now) the Financial Times reported that the originator of non-intervention in Sweden (Anders Tegnell, an epidemiologist) estimated that by the end of this month 40% of people in Stockholm (roughly 10% of the Swedish population) would be immune to the virus (immunity will be significantly lower in the rural, less-populated areas). He asserted that the advantage of this is that things would not be anyway near as bad in the 2nd wave of the pandemic which is expected in the autumn.
The downside (which he wasn't reported to have mentioned) was that in attaining this level of “herd immunity”, up to May 7th 3,040 of the Swedish population had died of covid infection. To put that in perspective, in the other Nordic countries, (Denmark, Norway and Finland) which have all instigated some form of lock-down control, their combined total of covid-related deaths amounted to fewer than 1,000 (less than a third of Sweden’s death toll), and this with an aggregate population (16.7mill) which is over 60% larger than the Swedish population (10.23mill).
It all comes down to whether the economy is more important than the increased number of deaths of people who have died before their time, especially if some/many deaths could have been avoided.
Please excuse me if I don't answer any messages or the like for the next few days - I'm actually in profit for the first time in I don't know when and am having to lie down in a darkened room so that I don't die of apoplectic excitement.
Careful, Druggie. With that cough you might need to have your nose and throat swabbed - and then have to move to another Board otherwise you'll be accused on this Board of being "Off Topic"!
Could somebody please explain to me why, in the absence of any good news, the SP has been climbing vertiginously over the last 3-4 days?
One might have expected such a rise after the announcements at the ASM but all we had was Zilch.
Could somebody somewhere have heard a little snippet of news from inside the team even now dissecting and reassembling the hard data?
There are "lies", "damn'd lies" ... and "statistics".
If at first you don't succeed, don't take up sky-diving.
Yes, I remember when I used to feel like that - now I'm in a bit of a hurry in case the dreaded Covid-19 gets me.
Best wishes.
Although I have absolutely no certain knowledge, the way the present government is behaving towards the E.U., they will want to cut loose from the E.M.A. and have their own autonomous organisation.
It is increasingly becoming apparent that on dogmatic grounds inherent to the right wing of the Tory party the Government wants as little formal contact as possible with any other jurisdiction (unless there is a financial benefit to the UK without any political strings attached) and that especially applies to the E.U. It certainly does not want to share any facet of government with the E.U. - even when it is blindingly obvious that it would be in the U.K's best interest to do so. That will include the E.M.A.. It is pure "little Englander" xenophobia on the Government's part.
Having said that, this Government's history of "getting things done" efficiently and on time makes it very doubtful, based on the situation we find ourselves in with the Covid-19 pandemic, that the British version of the E.M.A. will be up and running soon. Hence, your timescale of late 2021 (not 2011!) may not be far out.
McD, Can you be more specific about the blood test?
Was it a specific test to detect the presence of antibody to the virus (SARS-CoV-2) causing Covid-19 or was it a blood test to see if there were any changes in the blood suggestive of an ongoing or recent viral infection? Your answer could be very helpful with a situation which has developed in our locality, an island off the UK.
Hank, if you send your email address to "sarkdoc@gmail.com" I'll send you the audio of the ASM.
Best wishes,
doclee
Hank, I asked NWBO whether there were any copyright issues with the recording I had made and I got a reply which didn't answer that question. It actually offered me a copy of an audio of the ASM that would be produced.
I asked again about copyright issues and I am still awaiting an answer to this second query.
It seems to me that NWBO have had sufficient time and opportunity to advise me of the copyright status of the audio of the ASM and that its failure to answer the question indicates that there is no copyright issue involved.
If you'd still like a copy, let me know and I'll arrange a method to get it to you.
Best wishes,
doclee
That's a very good day to have a birthday, Reg!
Hank, I'm checking with NWBO to make sure that providing you with a copy is legally OK. If it is I'll provide you with an address for you to send your email address to - unless there is some way that we can do it all through ADVFN
Best wishes.
doclee
Hank, I can certainly provide you with a copy. If you give me your email in a private reply I'll send it to you.
Best wishes
I have a recording of the meeting, less the opening few minutes, but including everything about the trial status.
My birthday in June - hoping for a very nice present from NWBO
ASM informed by Mrs Powers that datalock expected approximately at the end of May and statistical analysis by independent statisticians will take several weeks. The company will then be unblinded to their analysis etc.
Very encouraging presentatio.
ASM informed by Mrs Powers that datalock expected approximately at the end of May and statistical analysis by independent statisticians will take several weeks. The company will then be unblinded to their analysis etc.
Very encouraging presentation
HOORAY!! Jean-Luc Picard to the rescue! Data's humoungus computing power may be needed to prove that black is white and vice versa (but I hope not).
Thanks, Icarus, for the information. I concur with your sentiment about companies run by lawyers.
It is my most fervent hope that the way NWBO is run refelects the fact that it is run by lawyers who are/were somewhat out of their depth when it came to running such a company. Mrs Powers and co. might know their way round the law but not, it might appear, around how to run a small investigatory biotech company trying to become a big player in the field.
If it turns out that they are, in fact, a bunch of shysters (which I do doubt) then I will better be able to understand how Dick, the butcher felt when he suggested; "The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers." (Shakespeare: Henry VI, Pt 2, Act IV, Scene II).
Best wishes to all (and that includes lawyers) and keep safe in these dangerous times.
Icarus, I hope that by law the company would have to inform the public if the trial had failed. Not to do so would be tantamount to fraudulent trading.
Of course Boeing are going to get the money and rightly so. It would be unthinkable for the US government to sit back and watch Boeing go under. The point of my comment is that the US government is going to have to do exactly what they condmen other governments for doing whilst all the way through claiming the high moral ground.
Now, when the sh*t is really hitting the fan, the US government will have to behave in exactly the same way that it condemns other govenments when they do it.
It will be interesting to see how the US Government disguises any help they give to Boeing in view of th US's "outrage" at help given to its rival, Airbus, by the European Union so as not to be tarred by the same brush. They might even have to remove the tariffs that they slapped on European goods in retaliation.
Captain, I think that stopping would, under the circumstances, be advisable. When you come to restart, might I suggest that you read this article, "low vs high dose aspirin" which essentially found that the 2 doses were equal in their effect in reducing strokes and heart attacks but that with the higher dose the patient was more likely to experience gstrointestinal bleeding.
Captain, I presume that your daily aspirin is to reduce the likelihood of such things as heart attacks et al. If so the dosage that you are probably on is 75mgs per day. Although aspirin is an NSAID (Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug) its dosage for an anti-inflammatory effect is up to 3.6gms per day in a divided dosage and your presumed dose (75mgs) is way below this. I would think (but could not say definitively) that 75mgs would have little or no effect on the outcome in Covid-19 infection. Likewise, I doubt that stopping the aspirin for a week or two would have any meaningful effect on the likelihood of stroke or heart attack.
Colchicine to prevent a cytokine storm is risky. The rationale is that:
1] a cytokine storm is due to uncontrolled release of cytokines in an inflammatory response to the infection.
&
2] Colchicine suppresses the inflammatory response in gout, therefore it might help prevent a cytokine storm.
However, as reported widely over the last few weeks, and picked up by President Macron (of France), the Chinese experience of treating Corvid-19 patients with ibuprofen (a much milder anti-inflammatory agent) was that it may increase mortality (based on 4 patients!!).
However, if ventilators are in short supply, catch it early and get on one if needed before a queue develops.
The fact that SARS has not recurred might suggest that like Ebola the corona virus which was responsible jumped from another species in which it was endemic and that it was probably due a genetic mutation. However, unlike the flu virus the SARS virus was a one-off mutation which has not been sustained or repeated in the stock from which the it originated, hence no recurrence.
Flipper, I wouldn't be too sure about SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing this outbreak) mutating in the same fashion as the 'flu virus.
The first major outbreak of a life-threatening respiratory infection caused by a corona virus was SARS ("Severe Adult Respiratory Syndrome") in 2003. This spread like the current epidemic from southern China and was linked (like this one has been) to bats. It affected 8,000 people and had a mortality of 10%.
The second, MERS ("Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome") first appeared in 2012 with an initial mortality of 50%. This started in Saudi Arabia and was linked to camels. There have been outbreaks reported several times a year since then so that by last year the WHO reported that there had been 2,484 serologically confirmed cases with 857 deaths (a mortality rate of 34%).
It would appear from this that corona virus does not mutate as frequently as does the influenza virus (every year) and that it is a somewhat more dangerous pathogen than the influenza virus except for the "Spanish Flu" outbreak in the 1918-23 pandemic when the mode of death was (in retrospect) probably related to a cytokine storm which appears to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in all 3 corona virus epidemics.
It might also be the case that, as has occurred with MERS, the current disease, now christened Covid-19, could become endemic in the area from which it first emerged. Since it is spread by person-to-person contact with high infectiousness, it raises the possibility of intermittent outbreaks of Covid-19 over the next few decades.
If I don't get Covid-19 this or any other year I shall be mightily pleased.
One possible late effect of this could be "post traumatic epilepsy" where an epileptogenic focus develops in the scar tissue consequent upon the damage caused by the expanding tumour +/- the unavoidable damage done by the surgery +/- the unavoidable damage done to the surrounding tissue by the radiotherapy +/- the damage done to the surrounding tissue by the intense inflammatory response that results when DCVax-L attacks the GBM.
However, having said that, such a side effect of treatment is far less serious than not destroying the tumour.
Who said that it was utterly distasteful for an unethical person to suffer consequences? Not I. You are trying to justify yourself by questioning a statement that has not been made by me. If Woodward was guilty of underhand dealing, of course he must suffer some sort of justice.
My distaste was clearly stated to be due to your complete lack of consideration for those who will suffer considerable collateral damage should your wish come to fruition. The fact that you are now expressing sympathy to those who will suffer if Woodward goes under goes some way in restoring your somewhat tarnished self-description to its former shining glory.
Best wishes.
Nasty sentiment - If "Woodie" goes belly up so do thousands of pensioners whose funds were invested either completely or partially in his funds. It's as bad as the shorters wishing that DCVax goes belly up without thinking of all those GBM sufferers for whom failure will be devastating.
Of course he does.
The end of this trial is like a giant black hole - the nearer you get to it, the more time slows down!
Rootjim,
I too hope that the silence indicates that DCVax-L has been successful. I don't really understand the ins and outs of the Scientific Advisory Board but if the trial had manifestly failed I understand that they must advise that the trial be terminated because of "futility". The trial has not been terminated, ergo the trial has not failed.
I believe that Woodford also believes that the trial hasn't failed, otherwise why keep hold of virtually worthless shares on which he's made a stonking paper loss so far. Today's Sunday Times "Business & Money" headlines with the news "Woodford forced into £1.4bn sell-off" providing the perfect time for him to ditch his NWBO shares without generating any more adverse headlines. It would be interesting to see whether his holding in NWBO remains intact
I think it ironic that there has been much speculation on this board that Woodford was aiming for Astra-Zeneca to take over NWBO, and yet this is one company in which he has sold virtually his entire holding over this year.
Rootjim,
It goes without saying that any long investor at this stage must be a believer that the science will come good in the final analysis. They must also hope that the very long delay in unblinding the trial is necessary to ensure that the results will be sufficently strengthened that the FDA will have to approve DCVax-L.
The nagging worry for any longs is the deafening silence from Management. Is this to avoid handing AF and the naked shorters any sort of news that they can then twist to their own ends? Or is it part of something less palatable for all investors outside Management?