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busted again, agreed. Looks even worse on a price rally session for the indices.
The put to call ratio is down at .57, with the volatility indices mixed, VXO +.34, VIX -.96, QQV +1.1.
The short cycles are upticking now, just in time to begin fight with the rolling longer intraday cycles. Perfect recipe for more rangebound chop. If the bounce doesn't carry more than sideways, though, the next short cycle downphase will line up with the rolling longer intraday cycles, and give us the conditions for a more meaningful drop.
Regards,
Naz
busted again, I think we'll need to see the bears get less lathered on every down tick before we see a substantial sell off. OI on the put side is still too strong, which serves to underpin the market presently. Hopefully, that will change soon in order for the indices to begin filling some of its recent gaps.
Regards,
Naz
Dimension, new low of day on GE, -.32 or -1.03% currently.
The situation with GE is getting critical. After gapping down out of the large wedge on the weekly chart, it is showing very little bounce here. Its one of the first seriously broken stocks I've seen since the rally began.
Minor negative indications beginning to appear and the MACD/MA/CCI negative. The ES is holding right at the trigger point but the markets have gone dormant. A/D is flat. TICKs are +493 and volume has slowed to a trickle.
VIX hit its lowest print today since mid 1998. However, that may no be comparable since its formula changed in September.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VXO,uu[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb20!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb20!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26...
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Short the QQQ's @35.35. With this being OPEX week and the Cubes well above Max Pain in the low 34's, I'm taking advantage of the low volume, Columbus Day bullishness to initiate some new short positions.
With the current bounce extending the already stretched indicators to extremes we should get a clear signal when a negative trend appears. This current bounce began at 15:54 on Friday at 1036 on the SPX.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Good morning Dimension & Turk..............................
Thank you for the welcome. Will look to contribute market analysis and stock information as my schedule permits. I'll post the momentum, sentiment and strength index readings on a weekly basis similar to my last post.
The ES is holding near session and contract highs and not showing any signs of failing. A gap and hold here could cause more short covering but the volume is expected to be light. The initial move could be the only move and we could drop back into the sideways pattern from Friday. Strong resistance awaits at 1050 and strong support at 1035. That gives us plenty of room to maneuver without causing any material change in the trend.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Weekly Momentum, Sentiment & Strength Indexes................
The market continued on a roll last week as the DJIA reached its highest level since 06/18/02 (DJIA - 9706.12) while the NASDAQ posted a 19-month high. The month of October has seen the DJIA finish higher on six of the eight trading days while the NASDAQ is up seven out of eight. In addition, all of the indexes with the exception of the DJ Utilities and the S&P 500, which missed by .85 of a point, posted new recovery highs during the week, confirming the movement of the DJIA. So far this month the DJIA has advanced 4.3% while the NASDAQ has jumped 7.2%, not bad for October.
For the week the Dow gained 102 points (+1.07%) and closed at 9674. The NASDAQ followed suit as it added 35 points (+1.86%) for the week and closed at 1915. For the year the DJIA is up 16% while the NASDAQ has gained 43.4%.
Momentum Index: The Momentum Index is positive at +5 down three points from last week's very bullish +8 reading. Breadth was bullish as the NYSE Advance/Decline line gained 2341 units for the week while the number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs, which was in triple-digits all week, outpaced the new lows on all five trading days. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average improved to 89.0%, up from 87.8%, while those above their 50-day jumped to 78.4% from 69.3%.
Sentiment Index: The Sentiment Index slipped to a neutral 0, down from +2 the previous week as VIX fell into bearish ground at 18.82. Readings under 20 are regarded as bearish. The percentage of bullish investment advisors remains bearish at 55.9%, down a touch from last week's bearish 56.0% reading. The CBOE index put/call ratio is neutral at 1.53, up from 1.44. For the week ending 10/08/03, U.S. equity mutual funds had inflows of $3.6 billion compared to outflows of $2.2 billion the previous week.
Strength Indexes: All three Strength Indexes dropped into negative ground. The percentage of Dow (DIA) stocks under accumulation fell to 36.7 from last week's 50.0. The percentage of NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) stocks considered to be under accumulation improved to 36.5 from 34.4 while those in the S&P-100 (OEX) slid to 43.0 vs 51.0. Readings below 50.0 indicate that the majority of the stocks in the index are under distribution, a short-term bearish condition.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA):
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is above its 50-day moving average at 9422 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (79.35).
On a long-term technical basis, the index is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The index has support at 9609 and 9230. If the index breaks down through support at 9609 then it will probably continue lower to 9230. The index will meet resistance at 9686 and 9706. If the index breaks up through resistance at 9686 then it will probably continue higher to 9706. The 200-day moving average is at 8745. This will also act as support. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (77.29).
NASDAQ Composite:
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is above its 50-day moving average at 1805.47 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (79.09).
On a long-term technical basis, the index (COMP) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The index has support at 1913.74 and 1805.47. If the index breaks down through support at 1913.74 then it will probably continue lower to 1805.47. The index will meet resistance at 1936.94 and 2152.96. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1936.94 then it will probably continue higher to 2152.96. The 200-day moving average is at 1557.05. This will also act as support. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (76.89).
SPX:
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is above its 50-day moving average at 1008.95 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (80.28).
On a long-term technical basis, the index (SPX) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The index has support at 1032.41 and 975.63. If the index breaks down through support at 1032.41 then it will probably continue lower to 975.63. The index will meet resistance at 1040.29 and 1170.33. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1040.29 then it will probably continue higher to 1170.33. The 200-day moving average is at 936.51. This will also act as support. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (79.26).
Good luck to all Ex-RB Short Term Traders.
Regards,
Naz
GR, yes, I'm still holding a recycled position in ADL, awaiting approval of the company's cancer test kit and the results of their road show.
Regards,
Naz
14theroad - fyi
during sammy's at bat in the 9th but prior to the hr.. they put up a stat on the screen.. sammy was the ONLY player in the 500 hr club to have never hit a hr in the post season
I can think of at least two other members of the 500 HR club that have never hit a homerun in the post season: Ernie Banks and Ted Williams. There may or may not be others, but if that is what the announcers said, they are incorrect.
Fortunately, Sammy is no longer a member of that illustrious group.
I didn't see the telecast, as I was on a rooftop across the street from the park overlooking right centerfield on Sheffield Avenue. Strangely, they didn't have any TV's or radios going. What an incredible sea of humanity on the streets around Wrigley, especially on Waveland Ave. Every fool in the city was out there it seemed. Took me over three hours to get home. Cub fever has certainly gripped the city, but I'm glad I don't live anywhere near Wrigley.
Thanks for the support for our Cubs though. I hope they make it to the Series at least. Would love to see a Cubs vs. BoSox World Series. That would likely set some ratings records.
Regards,
Naz
O.T. flimflammy7..............................................
There was a picture on the left? I must have missed it. If they had clothes on, I probably ignored it.
Regards,
Naz
Buzz, I guess there was a misunderstanding as I thought you were discussing a potential Q's trade ahead of Sept. OPEX and were looking at a range for that period. My response was only regarding that time frame.
Regarding earnings season, my crystal ball doesn't read that far ahead.
However, irregardless of a crystal ball, I believe we'll be quite a bit below 32.40 on the Q's before earnings season is overwith.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
O.T. flimflammy7.............................................
Good question. Although I doubt any of them live in relatively close proximity to me. Even if they did, they wouldn't want anything to do with me. They all think I'm a disgusting pig.
But they are very nice pictures nonetheless.
Regards,
Naz
Buzz, I hate to say "I told you so"..........................
Your original question on the QQQ's was the range the Cubes would trade in prior to September's OPEX. I said 33 was solid support based OI ahead of September's OPEX. The Q's in fact never traded below 33.01 prior to OPEX. I also told you that all this is subject to change depending upon the adjustments to the level of OI.
At this point, being almost three weeks out from OPEX, options will follow price, not the other way around. I'm wouldn't attempt to make any calls ahead of October's OPEX for at least another week.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
ADL............................................................
AMDL Inc. - ADL: In again at 1.42-1.49. This is strictly a rumor, but it comes from a very good Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey. According to the ACT monkey, the FDA has just accepted the submission papers from AMDL, Inc. for approval of the company's cancer test kit. It is their understanding that a news announcement will be forthcoming within the next day or two detailing the FDA submission. They further understand that news releases will come from well known national and international newspapers such as the New York Times, London Times, etc. Also, AMDL will start a road show within the next two or three weeks. This news will surely have a very positive impact on the stock and am looking for new 52-week highs in the near-term.
Please do your own DD before entering a trading position.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
DSGX..........................................................
Descartes Systems Group - DSGX: In at $2.63. Hearing today from the Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey that the company will soon be making a major contract announcement.
Please do your own DD before entering a trading position.
Regards,
Naz
Weekly Momentum, Sentiment & Strength Indexes.............
Against a backdrop of mixed economic reports, stocks stumbled last week as all of the major averages took it on the chin. The DJIA, which was down five of the past six trading days, lost 1.57% on Wednesday, its sharpest percentage decline in seven weeks. Gold prices approached $400 an ounce on Thursday, a 7 1/2-year high while the 30-year treasury bond fell below 5%. For the week the Dow lost 331 points (-3.42%) and closed at 9313. The NASDAQ also took a beating as it fell 113 points (-5.93%) for the week and closed at 1792. For the year the DJIA is up 12.02% while the NASDAQ has gained 36.07%.
Momentum Index: The Momentum Index is positive at +4. Breadth was mixed as the NYSE Advance/Decline line lost 2370 units for the week while the number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs outpaced the new lows on all five trading days. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average slipped to 86.5% down from 90.3% while those above their 50-day fell to 63.9% from 81.4%.
Sentiment Index: The Sentiment Index is neutral at +2, up two notches from the previous week. VIX rose to a neutral 22.26, up from last week's bearish 19.30. Readings under 20 are regarded as bearish. The percentage of bullish investment advisors remains bearish at 57.4%, up a touch from last week's bearish 56.1% reading. The CBOE index put/call ratio is neutral at 1.47, up from 1.20. For the week ending 09/24/03, U.S. equity mutual funds had inflows of $1.4 billion compared to inflows of $2.2 billion the previous week.
Strength Indexes: All three of the Strength Indexes remain in positive ground. The percentage of Dow Industrials (DIA) stocks under accumulation jumped to 63.3 from last week's 56.7. The percentage of NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) stocks considered to be under accumulation weakened to 60.4 from 79.2 while those in the S&P-100 (OEX) advanced to 66.0 vs 65.3. Readings above 50.0 indicate that the majority of the stocks in the index are under accumulation, a bullish condition.
The DJIA has support at 9304 and 9230. If the index breaks down through support at 9304 then it will probably continue lower to 9230. The index will meet resistance at 9448 and 9612. If the index breaks up through resistance at 9448 then it will probably continue higher to 9612. The 200-day moving average is at 8692. This will also act as support. The index is neutral according to the Stochastic Indicator (40.59).
The NASDAQ has support at 1776.10 and 1686.10. If the index breaks down through support at 1776.10 then it will probably continue lower to 1686.10. The index will meet resistance at 1819.42 and 1913.75. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1819.42 then it will probably continue higher to 1913.75. The 200-day moving average is at 1532.65. This will also act as support. The index is neutral according to the Stochastic Indicator (50.13).
The S&P 500 index has support at 983.57 and 930.11. If the index breaks down through support at 983.57 then it will probably continue lower to 930.11. The index will meet resistance at 1000.68 and 1161.46. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1000.68 then it will probably continue higher to 1161.46. The 200-day moving average is at 930.11. This will also act as support. The index is neutral according to the Stochastic Indicator (41.84).
Regards,
Naz
14theroad, thank you. Its been one big party in Wrigleyville since late yesterday afternoon.
Regards,
Naz
ddfridd - FTGX
I posted my 15K share sale back on 9/19 between 1.70-1.74.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1467544
I was happy taking the 20%+ profit for a three day hold. I was looking to reduce long exposure ahead of the weekend as well. Skirt chasing Friday's aren't cheap in the city.
I haven't heard anything lately from the Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey on FTGX. If he gives me an update, I may recycle the position. Otherwise, I just play these small caps for a trade.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
LS - Shorts - Chinese Portals options
Here is where it would be worth your while to begin trading options.
The Chinese Portals have been a favorite of the momo crowd for the past six months - NTES, SOHU & SINA in particular. NTES is down 12+ points from its 52-week high and a close of $57 would generate a sell signal. Well, NTES closed @53.93. The October 55 Put Options (NQGVK) were priced at $2.35 at noon eastern time today.
I grabbed a few contracts for a one or two day spec trade. I didn't post because few, if any traders here, actually trade options. My October 55 Puts closed at $4.30 bid/$4.70 ask for an 83% gain in 4 hours. I didn't have a big position, but it was well worth throwing a few darts at, rather than posting disgusting porn all day like some people do.
It more than made up for the small losses in my long positions anyway. Thats the beauty of hedging.
Regards,
Naz
They're really wiping the floor with HUI, now down 7.3 after yesterday's 9+ point loss. 193.90 is the current price, XAU -2.43 at 91.09. Dec gold now down 4.70 at 381.20, approaching the lower wedge trendline at 380. We've seen Friday selloffs in gold for many weeks, followed by buyers returning with Japan's open on Sunday night. Just a pattern, no need for it to hold this time, but there it is.
The Fed issued a 6 day, $6 billion repo. With a $6 billion repo expiring today, there is no change in liquidity on the session.
The put to call ratio is currently to the high side, .97 with the equity p/c up to .90. Great arguments still for either a bounce or a dump from current levels. Taking a look to support, I see 996-999 as very heavy support for SPX, but NDX does not have good support until 1315-1312.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Starshine, you got me hanging. I have no idea why those women ever bother putting their tops on. If I had boobs like that, I wouldn't wear a top.
One of life's great mysteries I guess.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
O.T. flimflammy7............................................
man oh man are you in trouble with the ladies here now! lol.
LOL. Thats the story of my life. I'm a very bad man. With any luck, I'll find someone to spank me tonight.
Do you think this pic will score me any points with the lady's on Rush Street tonight?
Regards,
Naz
MSGI, I think you're right. They are wearing MSI's black silk stockings. I thought it might be of interest to shareholders of MSI.
Ultimately, everything I post here ends up being market related, even if its in a subtle way.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
SEC to tighten short-selling rules
By John Labate in New York
Published: September 25 2003 23:41 / Last Updated: September 25 2003 23:41
US securities regulators are moving ahead with sweeping rule changes governing stock "short-selling", a legal but sometimes controversial trading practice.
Annette Nazareth, head of the market regulation division at the US Securities and Exchange Commission, said Thursday that a formal set of rule changes would be presented for approval in the near future.
"We can expect the proposal for short-sale reform will be calendared for Commission consideration in the next few months," she said in an interview. Ms Nazareth's staff is preparing the proposals but they must still be approved by the SEC's five sitting commissioners. The Financial Times first reported in February that such reforms were being considered.
If adopted, the new rules would bring fundamental change to the way shares are traded across all US stock markets. Short-selling is a legal and often beneficial practice in which a trader borrows shares from another party and then sells them into the market, betting that the share price will go down when he must buy shares in the market at a later date to repay the original loan. If the price of shares does fall, the trader earns a profit.
The new SEC proposals will attempt to standardise short-sale rules across all stock markets in order to keep pace with recent decimal and technology changes.
One change will be to replace the "tick rule" at the New York Stock Exchange with a "bid test", in which a seller can only sell shares short at a price above the current price people are willing to buy the shares in the market. The SEC is also expected to launch a pilot programme in which such short-sale restrictions will not apply to a certain number of large, liquid stocks.
Some have complained to regulators in recent years that the practice and current set of rules can be abused. The new SEC rules are expected to include a provision meant to stamp out so-called "naked" short selling. Regulators now consider this to be a persistent problem, especially in the trading of small, thinly-traded company shares that trade in off-exchange markets.
A naked short occurs when shares that were never borrowed are sold illicitly in the market, resulting in steady downward pressure on a company's share price. The seller collects money for the sale but no shares are delivered, since, as critics point out, the current rules do not require delivery to be made. The new proposals will include a rule that requires the delivery of the shares by the settlement date, typically three days after the trade is made.
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=105...
Regards,
Naz
LS - VXGN.....................................................
The Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey has the market as a sell now with only a few select longs such as precious metals (gold), energy stocks and select story issues.
The ACT Monkey has also indicated that you, LS, are prohibited from entering any new long positions during this downtrend unless you swear by the following credo:
a) You will set HARD stop losses, so your downside is limited.
b) You will trade these pigs, taking profits early and often, and not marry them.
c) In the event you get a Texas sized bug up your keester to still go long, you will initiate short positions on the QQQ's as a hedge against your longs, so your downside is limited (I mean that affectionately, as you know I love your keester)
I just realized, only 90 more shopping days until Christmas. I know what I'd like to see under the tree this year.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Good morning Bill1109.........................................
I'm keeping very busy these days. How are you doing my friend?
Your timing couldn't have been more perfect with setting up your shorts. All of your positions were subject to heavy short squeezes the past couple of weeks, which clearly ended midweek.
Its back to the good old days of shorting the rallys for the next month or so. I'm only short IMCL and the QQQ's. Looking for a bounce near term to add some new short positions as I was initiating starter positions yesterday when the bottom fell out. Still holding a few longs, will likely be out of a couple of them by the close today or Monday morning.
So your a landlord now huh? How much does a room with a view go for?
Hope to see you around more often.
Regards,
Naz
Thank you MW, needed it to hedge newly entered longs in a sinking market. My QQQ's trades are always by far my largest positions, so I can't afford to be on the wrong side for long.
We'll see if I'm as fortunate with these new long positions, or if they fall victim to a stop out.
It should go without saying that the intermediate term top is in as of last Friday.
Congrats on your patience and your call for a end of September dump. You've been pounding the table on this call for the better part of a month or more. Excellent work my friend.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
O.T. 14theroad - re "playoff failure"........................
One of the greatest league championship series I've ever seen was the 1980 Phillies vs. Astros series. Talk about heartbreak, the 'Stros had it all but locked up until Philly came back late in the series.
I also recall the Oilers playoff game when Renfro was called out of bounds when replays showed differently in '79. I feel for you on that one.
I don't have as good a recollection of the more recent Astro series. All I remember about baseball in 1986 was the miracle comeback by the Red Sox in the league championship series over the Angels and their subsequent collapse in the W.S. against the Mets that Buckner gets wrongly blamed for. Although I do remember the Hatcher corked bat incident (the original corky) because he was an ex-Cub.
I hope you don't get that chance to attend a playoff game this year at the Juice Box, unless the 'Stros capture the wild card. Its going to be a wild race to the finish. Too bad you lost Oswald for most of the season, or you guys would have locked up the division by now.
Regards,
Naz
LS, what part of the post exactly added to your mizeries?
Just having a little fun at your expense.
Added more EPMN @2.93. Sugar pills continue to drop nicely.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
O.T. denmo83..................................................
Can Dustiny's boyz run the table? The fever pitch of Cubdom here would reach a whole new level if they do.
I just don't want that team from the godforesaken city of Houston to win again. Haven't those fans suffered enough playoff failure yet?
Should be an exciting weekend around town eh?
Regards,
Naz
Elliott Wave Update
For those that are into the wave theory.
Looks like the "a" wave is now close to completion and expect a short pull back ("b" wave) before a final thrust to complete ("c" wave) sometime late today or tomorrow morning. Expectations are for the down move to resume thereafter.
If the count is correct, (using 15 minute data) today's early drop should complete a wave III down and an A-B-C upward correction should ensue. The correction should retrace some of the drop from SPX 1030. Standard retracement should apply. The TRADE below 1007.71 however does confirm the move to SPX 901 - 884. Early November is the timing for completion. However, its possible that move will start from a level higher than we are now.
Regards,
Naz
QQQ's...........................................................
I'm also short the Cubes right here in the 33.60's as a hedge against my new long positions. I dumped all previous long positions yesterday.
This bounce in ES has put in a lower high so far, and the shorter intraday oscillators have rolled over. If this pause turns out to be a bull flag, then we target higher prices to 1020ish, but I don't think so at this point. The put to call ratio at .94 gives me pause, but yesterday saw relatively high readings do nothing to stem the tide of sellers.
Ten Year note futures are holding steady/ rising at the 113 level for the December contract. The yield bottomed out today at 4.08% with 3.85% remaining the 50% retracement target. The near term upside objective is 113.30 and support at 112.11. The Budget deficit reality and the equity break are positive for Treasuries.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Sugar Pills....................................................
I'm short IMCL @40.64 average today. ImClone Systems got hammered yesterday on a sell recommendation. A close of $40 or less will be a sell signal, which appears a given at this point.
Regards,
Naz
NICE............................................................
Nice Systems - NICE: In today on the pullback @19.40 average. This company is involved with the threat of terrorism. Three years ago the stock traded in the $80's.
The company provides integrated multimedia digital recording and quality management solutions by capturing, evaluating and analyzing voice communications, internet collaboration, Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), call data, desktop screens, Email storage and video. NICE provides advanced Computer Telephony Integrated (CTI) recording solutions. NICE has broken out in the last couple of days on extremely strong volume. Looking for a move to the $25.00 level in the near-term.
Regards,
Naz
UPL.............................................................
Ultra Petroleum - UPL: In @$14.38 average. Natural gas stocks will likely continue to move higher as we approach the winter months, when this sector generally trades higher. UPL is my favorite in this group. Today UPL traded at another new 52-week high intraday and should move on up to the $20 level within the next 6 to 12 months. Will add on weakness.
Others to consider in this secotr are Western Gas Resources (WGR) and Patina Oil & Gas (POG). Both are considerably more expensive than UPL however.
Regards,
Naz
PMU.............................................................
Pacific Rim Mining - PMU: In @0.77. PMU trades on the AMEX. The stock has been setting new 52-week highs. This speculative penny stock is a mineral resource company engaged, both directly and through its wholly owned subsidiaries, in the acquisition and development of precious metals properties.
On April 6, 2000, Dayton acquired a 49% joint-venture interest in the Denton-Rawhide mine, near Fallon, Nevada. The Denton-Rawhide Mine is an open-pit heap leach operation that has a nominal crushing capacity of 6.2 million tonnes (one tonne is equivalent to 2,204.6 pounds) of ore per year.
Also on April 6, 2000, the company acquired the El Dorado, Potonico and El Paisnal exploration properties in El Salvador through the acquisition of Mirage Resource Corporation. El Paisnal and Potonico are early-stage exploration programs. In December 2000, the company, through its subsidiary, Compasia Minera Dayton, closed the Andacollo Gold Mine and initiated a disposition of its assets.
The company was formed in April 2002 as the result of a reverse merger between Dayton Mining Corporation and Pacific Rim Mining Corp.
Currently trading 5 times its average daily volume, look for the $1.00 level in the near-term.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
EPMN...........................................................
Epimmune - EPMN: In @$3.27 average. EPMN received amendment to its existing contract with the National Institutes of Health to include smallpox as a target for its epitope based vaccine. The Amazing Stock Picking Monkey was a buyer on the news today.
Regards,
Naz
HD28, I monitor O/I on the Q's options daily, as I often scalp trade them intraday. I find its pointless to post such trades and info since few on this thread or on the swingers board seem to follow the Q's, with the exception of yourself and Buzz.
Schaeffer is correct, as the put/call ratio is almost 4:1 based on O/I on Oct 33's. Actually the Oct 34's also provide
decent support as puts outnumber calls almost 2:1 and have the requisite minimum volume of 100K contracts in O/I. But these numbers need to be monitored constantly because they can change quickly.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/option_chain.asp?symbol=QQQ&selected=QQQ#OCT%202003
I have to smile when you stated the negative diverence on the intraday MACD. I've lost count on the number of occassions I've seen that the past several months. All have been headfakes to date. At some point it won't be, which is why I look for confirmation before reacting.
For now, I don't see a significant downdraft in equities starting until after November's opex. Therefore, I'm not even bothering with top guessing or short positions yet. I agree with those that forecast shallow pullbacks for the time being. We'll see.
As for FF, yuk. Thankfully, there is a wide disconnect between my trading and my FFL choices. I just can't catch a break. I started Bledsoe over Hasselbeck, figuring the Bills would connect for a few scores against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses. Nope, didn't happen. Started Moulds and B. Shaw also. Both were busts. At least LT finally scored. Sorry to hear about T. Henry. His loss I'm sure also adversely affected the performance of my receivers. Now at 0-3, I'm on my way to FFL infimy for futility, LOL.
Regards,
Naz
VIX
Beginning September 22, 2003, the CBOE intends to begin disseminating prices for a new VIX Index.
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/introduction.asp
Nice calls MSGI. You always find those hidden 'gems'. eom.
Good morning HD28 re: shorts
I think you're still a little too early in setting up short positions. I've been using the downdraft this morning to get long some Q's for a swing.
If this turns into a trend change and we start taking out the bullish trend underpinnings, we can become bears. I'd wait for price to inflict such a serious blow.
From a strictly technical perspective, alot of technical resistance points have been taken out over the last few weeks. Having these breakouts fail would be an excellent prerequisite for a trend change.
Per my sentiment post this weekend, stocks under accumulation, particularly in techland, are on the rise. Bears are still too lathered looking at forward trading options on the Q's. Other indicators are neutral at worst, so I just don't see a negative near term trend change yet.
At such point a discernable trend change occurs, I plan to take a hard look at the market's technical 'weakest links', whoever they may be.
As for your prospective short candidates, AMGN and CCMP, here is some information for your viewing pleasure.
Insiders have been busy taking their AMGN chips off the table:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=AMGN
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/HeadlineStocks/P58962.asp
TECHNICAL OPINION - AMGEN INC (AMGN) - 09/22/2003
Daily Opinion: HOLD
Monday's Bullish (up) bar with low volume (42% of average) has no significant technical importance.
Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is slightly above its 50-day moving average at 68.35 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (77.19), so look for a possible pullback.
Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (AMGN) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The stock has support at 68.35 and 64.55. If the stock breaks down through support at 68.35 then it will probably continue lower to 64.55. The stock will meet resistance at 69.82 and 81.42. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 69.82 then it will probably continue higher to 81.42. The 200-day moving average is at 60.28. This will also act as support. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (82.74).
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Insiders similarly are selling their CCMP shares as well. From a technical perspective, CCMP would appear to be your best bet as a short, as its one of the few techs trading below its 50 dma. However, it may be due for a dead cat near term since its oversold.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CCMP
TECHNICAL OPINION - CABOT MICROELECTRONICS (CCMP) - 09/22/2003
Daily Opinion: HOLD
Monday's low volume (39% of average), with little or no movement relative to the open, has no significant technical importance. Monday's gap down in price suggests further new lows are ahead, but due to the low volume the stock might be exhausted.
Short-Term Opinion: UNDERPERFORM
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bearish (down) and the stock is below its 50-day moving average at 62.31 which also confirms its Bearish (down) trend. The stock is slightly oversold according to the Stochastic indicator (34.10).
Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (CCMP) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The stock has support at 60.84 and 55.17. If the stock breaks down through support at 60.84 then it will probably continue lower to 55.17. The stock will meet resistance at 61.82 and 67.66. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 61.82 then it will probably continue higher to 67.66. The 200-day moving average is at 50.02. This will also act as support. The stock is slightly oversold according to the Stochastic Indicator (28.29).
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz