Deziner, can't say as I have......................

Husky & Starshine, for the kind words and the welcome back, I have a little something for you to take a look at:

Blue Horseshoe likes Antares Pharma (AMEX:AIS), trading @1.39.

Antares Pharma, Inc. develops, produces and markets pharmaceutical delivery solutions, including needle-free and mini-needle injector systems, gel technologies and transdermal products. The Company distributes its needle-free injector systems for the delivery of insulin and growth hormone in more than 20 countries. In addition, Antares has several products and compound formulations under development and is conducting ongoing research to create new products and formulations that combine various elements of the Company's technology portfolio. Antares' primary customers are pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.

Its on special for a limited time.






Regards,


Naz

Here are a few to look at....................................

INDEPENDENCE AIR (NASDAQ: FLYI)- trading @1.78

Less than two weeks ago, two independent investment groups invested in FLYI shares. Together they picked up 12.5% of the outstanding shares, which represent over 5 million shares.

One of the groups is S.A.C. Capital Advisors LLC, a hedge fund based in Stamford, Conn. The fund is run by Steve Cohen, who was called the most powerful trader on Wall Street on the cover of Business Week in July 2003.

The filings that disclose the stock purchases came just days after FLYI announced it was able to restructure its lease payments on 20 jets to GE. Flyi also secured a loan for $19 million from GE.

If it is able to restructure its next $83 million aircraft lease payment, it will have avoided a near-term filing for bankruptcy which represents a rebound opportunity for the stock. 200 MA @3.63.

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KRISPY KREME (NYSE: KKD) - trading @7.89

Krispy Kreme’s lenders have given the company until March 25 to get current with its loans and its 10Q filing.

This breathing room will give the new turnaround executives, Stephen Cooper and Steven Panagos, some time to start cutting the fat. Especially since the new agreement requires that the lenders approve of any future loans.

Even though the March SEC filing will disappoint many investors, I expect a positive announcement of major sweeping changes to be made by the new management. 200 MA @14.78.

***********************

BLUE COAT SYSTEMS (NASDAQ: BCSI) trading @23.70

Despite a rough January, several important market indicators are indicating the recent stock rally has room to run.

The number of stocks making new highs each day is much higher
than the number of stocks making new lows. We also have a very
strong advance/decline line – which indicates a large number of
stocks are moving up the charts.

Blue Coat Systems is a tiny ($288 million market cap)provider of internet security appliances.

In Blue Coat's words, their products keep "good" employees from
doing "bad" things. Blue Coat appliances prevent unauthorized
web surfing, file sharing, and computer viruses from disrupting a company's business.

As evidence of the demand for Blue Coat's products, Blue Coat's
fiscal second quarter revenue came in 63% higher than the
previous year.

The company also expects an improvement of 28% in third quarter
sales – a figure to be reported about three weeks from today on
February 24.

Now, after a rash of insider buying in August, the stock is
marching up the charts again.

While business is booming for Blue Coat, what makesinto this
an attractive trade is Blue Coat's efficient rebound of the past few months - and its tendency to make advances on massive volume.

On January 18, Blue Coat jumped out of a sideways-moving trading range on four times normal volume – a bullish sign for a fast-grower like Blue Coat.

We're looking at a holding period of around a month with this
trade, as Blue Coat is a richly valued stock. But given Blue
Coat's outstanding technical action, we could see a quick gain of 25%.

BUY Blue Coat Systems (BCSI, 23.70).

With an average daily volume of 320,000, this stock has greater
trading liquidity than our typical recommendation. Avoid
buying this stock over $26.


Hope everyone is doing well. I'll attempt to post periodically as my schedule allows. Take care.

State of the Markets.........................................

The Forbidden Dance
April 4, 2004

David D. Moenning

With an overly dramatic tongue firmly implanted in cheek, let me set the scene. It’s Friday, April 2, 2004. It’s 8:25 am eastern time and you can cut the tension with a knife. In short, this is THE day we’ve all been anticipating. Every trader, analyst, economist, fund manager, investor, commentator, and media outlet is doing the exact same thing. Waiting. All eyes are fixed on the screen. Phone calls are ignored. Faxes are tuned off. Donuts go uneaten. The dog can wait. Emails are on hold. As the clock approaches 8:30 am, a collective breath is drawn and the fretting reaches a climactic level. Will the report justify the bounce or give the Bears a reason to renew their attack? The clock ticks ever so slowly now. CNBC cuts to commercials (isn’t that annoying as heck?) We wait for it. And finally the report hits the wires… 308,000 new jobs created in March!

Woohooo! The scene now verges on all-out jubilation. Hands are thrown in the air, fists are pumped Tiger-style, shouts of exhilaration are heard in the pits, confetti is tossed skyward, and as traders join hands in song, the tears begin to flow… tears of joy for the bulls and tears of sadness for the bears – a few of whom are seen heading dejectedly back to their dens. While it is hard to believe, the report that market watchers had hyped to levels bordering on ridiculous, was here – and it had not disappointed.

It actually takes a moment for the joyous news to sink in. 308,000 new jobs last month… the best month since April of 2000. Wow! And as the initial delirium fades and we begin to be able to see straight again, the announcers continue with the report… February’s number was revised higher to 46,000ish – from 20,000ish… amazing! …Am I dreaming? Is it Christmas morning? But wait, they are still talking… January was also revised higher! It turns out we got 120,000 new jobs in January instead of 79,000!

Next, a savvy analyst grabs a calculator. After punching in a few numbers, a broad smile appears on his face. While we’ve spent the last 3 months worrying about the “jobless recovery,” the economy was actually creating a total 513,000 new jobs. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Quietly, and alone in a back room, a few economists I know begin to do the forbidden dance… the “I told you so” dance. This is the dance that Ms. Market WILL allow you to enjoy – as long as it’s done in private. We have mentioned on several occasions that it is completely normal for job creation to lag the economy’s recovery by as much as a year. We have wondered why the media and traders alike were in such a tizzy about jobs not showing up yet. It is a bit like the hostess being upset an hour before the party starts because her guests haven’t arrived yet. But they still worried in advance and the media picked up on their concerns. And in a classic example of prophecies being self fulfilling, the market also began to worry. But Friday changed all that. And the economists enjoyed their dance.

Yearning to Join In

Frankly it’s sooooo tempting to join the dance at this point. But rules are rules, and there is a good reason why it’s called the “forbidden” dance. As I’ve mentioned in the past, Ms. Market has a Louisville Slugger with every investor’s name on it. And she’s not shy about using it whenever some poor sap decides to proclaim victory in a public fashion.

But at the same time, it is indeed nice to be right every once in a while. And since readers of this report are likely to hope that we just might know what we are doing, it’s impossible to avoid the dance completely. So…allow us to ever so quietly, do a tiny and humble little two-step on a couple of subjects.

As we alluded to above, we have been suggesting patience with regard to the jobs situation. We figured we shouldn’t get upset about the guests being late until they actually were late. Therefore, we didn't let the worry about jobs impact our investment decisions of late. In the investing business it is helpful to understand how the game has played out in the past and the knowledge that jobs lag the recovery helped us stay calm (and make some money) this year.

Next, while the jury is technically still out, with the leaders either at, or back within spitting distance of new highs, we feel pretty good about not succumbing to all the yammering about a new Bear Market. Yes, the down days were scary and the pullback was much more severe than we had envisioned. But during the depth of the decline, our indicators told us that the animal we were dealing with was still of the barnyard variety.

Finally, we are pleased that we kept calm and looked for the inevitable bounce. We always feel that is during a “countertrend” move the Ms. Market lets us peek at her cards. We opined that if the bounce was weak, we’d head lower. But if some momentum accompanied the rally that would indicate that we had probably seen the low of the corrective phase.

Correction? What Correction?

Since Ms. Market appreciates honesty, we should also take a moment to point out a couple things that we haven’t exactly “nailed” lately. While we didn’t expect the recent pullback to turn into a new Bear Market, we need to point out that we went on record as saying we didn’t expect the market to “V Bottom” and simply charge higher. Oops. (Although if we are going to be wrong, we certainly enjoy being wrong while watching our account balances go higher!)

Don’t look now but the Russell 2000 hit a new recovery high on Friday. In English, that means that the Russell is now higher than it was before the correction began. And since the Russell remains one of the leaders this year, this is a good thing.

There are a few other “good things” to take note of as well. For starters, the Midcap Index (another leader this year) is back to within 4 points (0.6%) of its recent high. Next, the NASDAQ broke out of the downtrend that had plagued the index for months as investors did a little bargain hunting in tech this week. Also, the S&P 500 has recovered the vast majority of the decline and has moved back to within 1.3% of its recent high. In addition to the great jobs report on Friday, we got some additional good news on the economy this week. We learned that the Purchasing Manager’s Index has jumped 16 points over the past year, which is the best annual gain since 1983. And finally, we have to admit that we’ve been whining a lot lately about the lack of volume. So it was nice to see the market cough up the goods and enjoy a nice volume surge on Friday.

Potential Bull Killers

Ok, that's probably enough time spent patting ourselves on the back. Let’s turn to some analysis that might actually be useful in the future. In light of the fact that the current Bull Cycle is definitely become mature, we thought it would be a good idea to identify some of the conditions/signals that would tell us to be on the lookout for a change in the big picture environment. So here are five things that we would consider to be Bull Killers. Individually these signals might not mean much, but if you put them together they may be hazardous to the Bull’s health.

1. A reading of below 6.5 on our Big Picture Momentum Model. This would tell us that more than a third of the industry groups were no longer technically healthy, which has been an excellent signal to take defensive action in the past. For example, when our Momentum Model is above 7.7 (like now) the market has gained at an annual rate of +20.3%. However, when the model falls below 6.5, happy days are gone as historically the market has lost more than -15% per year.

2. Trend and Breadth Confirm System going negative. One of the components of our Models of Models Risk Management System combines the trend of the market with the breadth of the market. We know that when the trend of prices is in a positive mode AND the trend of our custom Advance-Decline line is positive (like now), the market gains at an impressive rate of +26.7% per year. However, when both are below their smoothed trends, the market loses -13.6% per year.

3. Excessive Optimism in our Sentiment Model. At this point in the cycle, an abundance of bullish sentiment would indicate complacency and would represent an “opening” for the Bears to exploit. A reading of 3.5 or below on our Sentiment Model (which can be found each week in our mid-week “Essentials” report under Key Market Models) has historically meant a losing environment for the S&P 500.

4. Monetary Conditions falling into Negative territory. The simplest signal to watch for on a daily basis is the yield of the 10-year Treasury Note. If this important yield moves above 4.75% our studies have indicated that bond yields would represent sufficient competition to stocks so as to be a negative for the market. In addition, watch for the reading of our Monetary Model to remain above 4.0. When the model is below the 4.0 level, stocks have lost about -10% per year.

5. A Sell Signal from our Valuation Model Valuations are certainly one of the more tricky issues to figure out in the market. Therefore, we like to keep things simple. If our model triggers a sell we should definitely pay attention. Since 1966 there have only been 9 signals and all have indicated some sort of trouble ahead. When the model is negative and a sell signal is triggered, stocks lose ground at a rate of almost -7% per year.

So there you have it. Five signals that all indicate a negative return for the market when triggered. The good news is that currently we are 0 – 5 in the Bull Killer watch. However, this doesn’t mean it’s clear sailing ahead. And while we will certainly enjoy further gains, we are keeping an eye out for trouble.

Weekly Momentum, Sentiment, Strength & Technical Indexes........

The market took off on Friday following a cautious week of trading as the March employment report posted the strongest growth rate in four years. All of the major indexes posted significant gains for the period as Friday’s rally pushed the DJIA over 10400 for the first time since 03/09/04. For the week, the DJIA gained 258 points (+2.52%) and settled at 10470.

The NASDAQ, led by high-tech stocks, also scored impressive gains as the index crossed back over the 2000 mark. On a percentage basis, the NASDAQ outperformed the DJIA by almost a 2:1 ratio. For the week, the NASDAQ gained 97 points (+4.95%) and closed at 2057. For the year, the DJIA is up 1.70% while the NASDAQ is up 2.67%.

Momentum Index: The Momentum Index is neutral at +2, up a notch from last week’s neutral +1. Breadth was positive as the NYSE Advance/Decline line, which posted a new all time high, gained 4567 units for the week. In addition, the number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs, in triple digits all week, outpaced the new lows on all five trading days. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average found firmer ground rising to 80.2% from 74.6%, while those above their 50-day jumped to 56.7% from 35.3%.

Sentiment Index: The Sentiment Index is neutral at 0, down from last week’s +1 reading. The Index Put/Call ratio rose slightly to 1.62 from last week’s 1.46 while VIX remained in bearish territory at 16.65, down from 17.88. Readings under 20 are regarded as bearish signaling excess complacency in the options pit. The percentage of bullish investment advisors inched up to a neutral 46.0%, up a touch from last week's 45.4% reading. For the week ending 04/02/04, U.S. equity mutual funds had inflows of $2.8 billion compared to inflows of $580 million the previous week.

Strength Indexes: The Strength Indexes continue to remain in negative ground but all three showed some improvement. The percentage of Dow (DIA) stocks under accumulation climbed to 6.7% from 3.3% as did the S&P-100 (OEX) which rose to 18.2% from 13.1%. The NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) rose to 19.6% from last week's 14.4%. Readings under 50% indicate that the majority of the stocks in the index are under distribution, a short-term bearish condition.

*******************************

TECHNICAL OPINION - DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL - 04/02/2004

Daily Opinion: HOLD
Friday's very Bullish (up) bar with above average volume (122% of average) suggests a possible move higher on the next day.

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is slightly above its 50-day moving average at 10466.01 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (81.01).

Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the index (INDU) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 10,466.01 and 10,022. If the index breaks down through support at 10,466.01 then it will probably continue lower to 10,022. The index will meet resistance at 10521.70 and 10,700. If the index breaks up through resistance at 10521.70 then it will probably continue higher to 10,700. The 200-day moving average is at 9850.22. This will also act as support. The index is neutral according to the Stochastic Indicator (56.92).

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TECHNICAL OPINION - NASDAQ COMPOSITE - 04/02/2004

Daily Opinion: HOLD
Friday's very Bullish (up) day suggests a continuation higher on the next day. Friday's gap up in price suggests further new highs are ahead. Sometimes a index will pause, or retrace for a few days to fill the gap, before continuing higher.

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is above its 50-day moving average at 2023.47 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (85.58).

Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the index (COMP) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 2023.47 and 1901.06. If the index breaks down through support at 2023.47 then it will probably continue lower to 1901.06. The index will meet resistance at 2069.02 and 2150. If the index breaks up through resistance at 2069.02 then it will probably continue higher to 2150. The 200-day moving average is at 1901.06. This will also act as support. The index is slightly overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (65.22).

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TECHNICAL OPINION - S&P 500 ($INX) - 04/02/2004


Daily Opinion: HOLD
Friday's very Bullish (up) day suggests a continuation higher on the next day. This chart ($INX) does not have Volume available for use in the gerneration of the Daily Opinon. Because, there is no volume recorded on this particular chart, the Daily Opinion is somewhat limited.

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is slightly above its 50-day moving average at 1133.56 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (83.74).

Long Term Opinion: HOLD
On a long-term technical basis, the index ($INX) is trading above its 200-day moving average, but has broken through an important support level, which implies it is in a neutral trend.

The index has support at 1134.43 and 1074.30. If the index breaks down through support at 1134.43 then it will probably continue lower to 1074.30. The index has resistance at 1155.38 and 1247.53. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1155.38 then it will probably continue higher to 1247.53. The 200-day moving average is at 1059.87. This will also act as support. The index's long-term uptrend has changed into a sideways or downtrend. In this case, the index will either go sideways for a while or sell-off back to where it started prior to the latest big upmove. This is a risky time for the index, so be careful. Use caution during times like these, as the index will be more volatile. Pay close attention to the Short-Term and Daily Opinion. The index is neutral according to the Stochastic Indicator (59.27).


Regards,



Naz
















Support for the DJIA is 10022 followed by 9850 while resistance is in the 10700 area. Support for the NASDAQ is around 1880 with resistance at 2150.

Thank you Steve. I appreciate the welcome. eom.....

State of the Markets............................................

by David D. Moenning

There is nothing quite like a sudden blast higher to get the Bear off your back (at least for a couple of days, anyway). With confidence beginning to get more than a little shaky, the Dow’s gain of 170 points on Thursday was a welcome sigh of relief. It reminded us that stocks can actually do something besides go down, and that investing may involve more than looking for the Advil after the close. With some of the overbought/oversold indicators hitting readings that we haven’t seen for years, it was obvious to everyone that the market was very oversold and ready for some sort of rally attempt. The problem was that the rallies prior to Thursday had been feeble and the momentum had clearly swung to the dark side.

So it really didn’t matter what excuse the Press gave for the rally, the point was we were due for a pause in the Bear’s game of tag your portfolio. In reality, it was the combination of a little bargain hunting in tech, some decent economic news, a respite from the terror watch, and the realization that earnings will be pretty good, that sent shorts running to lock in profits. And before you could say, “short squeeze” stocks were flying higher on Thursday. Not surprisingly, the leaders of the mad dash higher were some of our dear old friends in the Tech sector.

And speaking of Tech, just when we were beginning to think that the Four Horsemen would never ever see a green number again, Microsoft, Dell, Intel, and Cisco enjoyed a surge higher. Frankly, the rise doesn’t change the trend of late for these darling duds, but it was nice to see some gains for a change this week. And maybe, just maybe, we are starting to see some basing going on here – especially in Dell and Cisco. If we could get some interest in these stocks beyond the one-day wonder rallies, the market could definitely enjoy a run here.

But before we get too excited, let’s recognize this action for what it is right now… a bounce. Just as we have counseled not to get sucked into all the talk of a new Bear Market, we must now recognize that one day does not a trend reversal make. Especially when the bounce occurs on less-than inspiring volume. Yes, the volume was “decent” but it was not the kind of thrust we need to qualify Thursday as a reversal day. This tells us that the bounce was, well… a bounce.


Does This Really Mean Anything?

In one morning’s work, the market recovered 25% of the recent decline. Friday’s attempt to “follow through” (which fizzled at the close) looked like it wanted to prove Mr. Fibonacci knew what he was talking about centuries ago, as we quickly approached the 38.2% retracement level (which, by the way, would be a convenient spot for the Bears to reenter the game). This was certainly enjoyable, but the question is – does it mean anything? The answer is, of course, yes, and no. (Did you REALLY expect a different answer?)

Let’s explore both sides of the coin here. No – the brief rally doesn’t mean a whole lot yet because the downtrend that is in place on most of the averages has not been reversed by the relief rally. While the blast higher did plunk the Midcap and Russell indices back into their previous trading ranges, the jury is still out on whether they can stay there over the next week. (But the longer they can stay above the old “floor” of the range, the better.)

However, the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow remain in a downtrend and need some additional upside work to break out of the downward spiral of lower highs and lower lows. I don’t want to sound fussy, but a little volume when this move occurs would be nice.

On the other hand…Yes – the bounce DOES change things a bit… it means that we are now taking a shot at “putting in” a bottom. While the move higher didn’t have enough “oomph” to reverse the downtrend, it did make the statement that the Bulls aren’t afraid to try and make a stand. And there you have it; the game is on!

But – after their profitable three-week run, don’t expect the Bears to just roll over and go back into hibernation. I may be restating the obvious, but we shouldn’t be looking for the market to “V Bottom” and immediately resume its march higher. The fact is that the strong momentum we saw at the end of last year is no longer present. We should also expect a “retest” (at least on an intraday basis) of the lows at some point soon. And this will be where Ms. Market may tip her hand. The bulls will be looking / hoping for a reversal with some volume after this inevitable move lower – which would be a positive sign.

In all likelihood, we should expect the battle for the bottom to be spirited. In other words, don’t expect the recent volatility to go away quickly. (Although, if I had my druthers, I’d prefer to see a period of “quiet” trading on low volume, which would indicate the market was sold out.) We also need to remember that the decline did some damage, which means the bottoming process could take a while.

The Mini Bull’s Demise?

The same approach also goes for the end of the current Mini Bull cycle. As I’ve stated several times in the last two weeks, we don’t believe it’s time to start looking for cemetery plots for our friend "mini Bull." But the cold, hard reality is we will have to say goodbye to the cycle at some point. And thus, the really important question that we will most likely have to deal with at some point over the next year is: how will we know when the cycle is ending?

Having been in the investment business since 1980, I’ve seen a lot of cycles come and go. And one thing that I can say with absolute certainty is that the beginning and end of every one is different. The conditions that exist can be similar, but how things unfold is usually pretty unique. (I’ll spare you all the supporting data on this point… it’s also not really that interesting.)

We can tell you that the average Mini Bull lasts a little over 14 months (431 days to be exact) while the median is right at one year. We can also say that the average gain for Mini Bulls is about 62% for the Dow Jones Industrials, while the median is a bit lower at 50.6%. Given that, in our opinion, the Mini Bull began last March, (or in October of 2002) we could start guessing that this cycle “should” be ending in the next few months. However, this bull has been quite strong in terms of its momentum, and thus, we’d expect it to wind up being classified in the above average category. For those of you keeping score at home, if you mark the beginning of the Bull as the low of the Bear, then this cycle is now 17 months old and has moved the Dow up +47.4% from the bottom. While this may be statistically preferrable, we believe the Bull began in March of last year and thus has recently had a birthday to go along with a gain of +42.7% for the Dow, +44.6% for the S&P 500, and +69.4% for our buddies on the NASDAQ.

During the last Bull Market cycle, our models told us that the Bull was strong (which was correct). They told us that the Bubble Bull’s leadership was getting very narrow and risk was high in late 1999 (right again). They told us that momentum peaked long before the last Bull Market did (check). They told us to get out of tech in April of 2000 (double check, with an exclamation point). They told us to avoid “growth” during much of the Bear Market (another good move). They told us to take defensive measures during the vast majority of the grizzly’s reign (this helped us avoid a lot of pain). They told us to buy bonds (right again - but did we listen?) They told us to “Buy” in March and April of 2003 (Dead on, but scary). And the models told us to focus on small caps last year (small caps were the leaders in '03).

So What are the Models Telling Us Now?

As we’ve laid out over the past two weeks, our models say that the current decline is a correction in an ongoing (but aging) Mini Bull Market. They are telling us that the correction has taken its toll on the “environment” and that a lower risk profile is warranted going forward. The models are telling us to stay focused on Midcaps for now (but they may give Large Caps the nod on April 1st). They clearly tell us that Value is the style to use at this point in the cycle. The models tell us that Momentum has fallen off a bit, but is still pretty darn good for a corrective phase. They say that we should underweight bonds in our portfolio. The models are telling us that we should be between 70% and 80% invested right now. They say that stocks are still overvalued on an absolute basis and cheap relative to the levels of interest rates. The models tell us the economy is improving. They say that interest rates (and inflation) are headed higher, but only mildly so. They told us that investors have become quite pessimistic in a very short period of time. Finally, they have been telling us to expect a bounce… and that the bounce may eventually become a tradable move higher.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

Weekly Momentum, Sentiment, Strength & Technical Indexes.......

After the DJIA nearly kissed the 10,000 line on Wednesday, traders turned their focus to upcoming earnings and put together a rally to finish the week. Thursday’s 170 point gain for the DJIA was the largest point gain since October 2003. Friday’s choppy action ended mixed and for the week the DJIA gained 26 points (+0.26%) and settled at 10,212.

The NASDAQ found traders eager to buy tech stocks after the early week sell-off and Thursday’s 57 point gain was the largest point gain since March 2003, the start of last year’s big rally. Early in the week the NASDAQ tested its 200-day SMA at 1885 and was able to hold. For the week, the NASDAQ gained 20 points (+1.03%) and closed at 1960. For the year, the DJIA is down 2.30% while the NASDAQ has lost 2.40% of its value.

Momentum Index: The Momentum Index is neutral at +1, up a notch from last week’s neutral 0. Breadth was mixed as the NYSE Advance/Decline line lost 387 units for the week while the number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs outpaced the new lows on all five trading days. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average softened to 74.6% from 78.0%, while those above their 50-day fell to 35.3% from 41.1%.

Sentiment Index: The Sentiment Index is neutral at +1, also up one from last week. The Index Put/Call ratio finished the week at 1.46 while VIX briefly climbed into neutral ground but returned to bearish territory to finish the week and closed at 17.88, down from last week's 18.53. Readings under 20 are regarded as bearish signaling excess complacency in the options pit. The percentage of bullish investment advisors, after 29 weeks in bearish ground, went neutral. It tallied a reading of 45.4%, down from last week's 52.5% reading. For the week ending 03/24/04, U.S. equity mutual funds had inflows of $580 million compared to outflows of $22 million the previous week.

Strength Indexes: The Strength Indexes continue to remain in negative ground. The percentage of Dow (DIA) stocks under accumulation fell to 3.3% from 10.0% as did the S&P-100 (OEX) which dropped to 13.1% from 19.2%. The NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) fell to 14.4% from last week's 26.5%. Readings under 50% indicate that the majority of the stocks in the index are under distribution, a short-term bearish condition.

TECHNICAL OPINION - DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL - 03/26/2004

Daily Opinion: HOLD
Friday's average volume (99% of average), with little or no movement relative to the open, has no significant technical importance.

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD/SELL
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bearish (down) and the index is below its 50-day moving average at 10486.35 which also confirms its Bearish (down) trend. The index is neutral according to the Stochastic indicator (35.55).

Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the index (INDU) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 9903.57 and 9850. If the index breaks down through support at 9903.57 then it will probably continue lower to 9850. The index will meet resistance at 10367.40 and 10420. If the index breaks up through resistance at 10367.40 then it will probably continue higher to 10420. The 200-day moving average is at 9821.47. This will also act as support. The index is extremely oversold according to the Stochastic Indicator (18.74), so look for a possible rebound soon.

TECHNICAL OPINION - NASDAQ COMPOSITE - 03/26/2004

Daily Opinion: HOLD
Friday's bar with little or no movement compared to the opening price suggests a stalemate between buyers and sellers. This may sometimes identify an important top or bottom. Look for confirmation from other indicators. This day's price action formed a Bearish Key Reversal which suggests the index will go lower in the short term.

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD/SELL
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bearish (down) and the index is below its 50-day moving average at 2035.45 which also confirms its Bearish (down) trend. The index is neutral according to the Stochastic indicator (38.96).

Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the index (COMP) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 1947.07 and 1880. If the index breaks down through support at 1947.07 then it will probably continue lower to 1880. The index will meet resistance at 1979.78 and 2070. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1979.78 then it will probably continue higher to 2070. The 200-day moving average is at 1892.10. This will also act as support. The index is extremely oversold according to the Stochastic Indicator (20.22), so look for a possible rebound soon.

TECHNICAL OPINION - S&P 500 - 03/26/2004

Daily Opinion: HOLD
Friday's bar with little or no movement compared to the opening price suggests a stalemate between buyers and sellers. This may sometimes identify an important top or bottom. Look for confirmation from other indicators.

Short-Term Opinion: UNDERPERFORM
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bearish (down) and the index is below its 50-day moving average at 1134.61 which also confirms its Bearish (down) trend. The index is slightly oversold according to the Stochastic indicator (30.47).

Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the index ($INX) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 1074.30 and 1013.74. If the index breaks down through support at 1074.30 then it will probably continue lower to 1013.74. The index will meet resistance at 1122.38 and 1308.63. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1122.38 then it will probably continue higher to 1308.63. The 200-day moving average is at 1056.54. This will also act as support. The index is extremely oversold according to the Stochastic Indicator (17.11), so look for a possible rebound soon.


Regards,



Naz

Some advice and suggestions for newbies………………………………….

Thank you gramps2 for the invitation to add a post to your thread. In glancing over some of the prior posts, I see many other traders have offered some excellent thoughts and strategies.

In order to avoid being redundant by merely re-emphasizing some of the salient points already posted on this thread, I’m going to take a little different approach and provide a step-by-step general outline for new traders.

Few financial endeavors have occupied the time of more people over the years with less success than attempting to “beat the market.” Countless numbers of people have tried and failed. Particularly in academic circles, it is believed that no one can consistently outperform the averages.

Nothing could be further from the truth!

Granted, everyone cannot beat the market, simply because everyone is the market. But that does not preclude the possibility that some investors, utilizing more sophisticated approaches than the public at large, can earn above average returns on their trades and investments. To do so, however, requires the development of a logical investment strategy, which takes advantage of the very weaknesses that deny superior returns to most traders and investors.

As a prelude to increased stock market profits, it is necessary to reject the concept that chance alone governs who wins and who loses on Wall Street, while recognizing that most speculators who seek a get-rich-quick solution will instead end up amongst the big losers. Traders expecting to double their money every year will fail almost without exception, while those with reasonable expectations and a sophisticated and rational approach will usually be well rewarded for their effort.

The first step in building a successful trading strategy is to learn as much as possible about where stock prices in general are headed. Utilizing a vast array of stock market indicators, such as those listed in the link below, will provide some guidance in determining market direction.

http://www.technicalindicators.com/stocksshortind.htm

The second step is combining information from diverse sources into a single rational forecast. Although many of the indicators work well enough most of the time, virtually none are always correct and rarely do they all ever point in the same direction. Many forecasting models exist; therefore exposure and research are required in order to find which one(s) work best, depending upon each individual trader’s objective.

The third step is developing a stock selection strategy. There are a seemingly endless number of techniques for picking winners, most of which are of dubious value. For starters, here are a few sources I favor:

http://www.briefing.com

http://www.realtimetraders.com

and

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/default.asp?siteid=mktw

The fourth step a new trader should concentrate on is developing an approach that combines rational theory with a history of superior results. Evidence is adduced that raises extreme doubts about the validity of the random walk theory. An old Wall Street adage goes, “Don’t tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy it. In fact, what and when are two sides of the same coin. Both are essential to a successful trading strategy.

The fifth step to trading is learning to apply the tools to portfolio management. Traders must define objectives and utilize several methods, in order to improve total returns and adjust risk levels. These techniques include religiously using stop loss orders on losing trades and trailing stops on profitable trades in order to preserve gains. Living to trade another day is one of the main objectives.

The sixth step involves keeping score. The trading game obviously does not yield uniform profits to all its participants. Instead it dispenses large gains or losses to a relatively few traders, leaving most players as small winners and losers. Judging your portfolio returns, including accounting for shrinkage, against the market averages provides a measuring stick in determining relative performance.

Good luck to everyone.


Regards,



Naz

jaytea, everything I know presently about WBR was included in my PM to you last week.

Good luck.


Regards,



Naz

14theroad re: "BASEL II": GLOBAL BANK REGULATIONS CAN IMPACT LOCAL REAL ESTATE LENDING

I apologize for the delayed response. I really have very little time to follow the threads these days. Hopefully that will change in the next 6-8 weeks or so.

Per your article, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is proposing increasing capital reserves on real estate later this year, likely not until after the fall elections.

Theoretically, higher reserve requirements should result in reduced money creation and, in turn, in reduced lending and economic activity.

In practice, the connection between reserve requirements and money creation is not nearly as strong as the theory would suggest. Reserve requirements apply only to transaction accounts, which are components of M1, a narrowly defined measure of money. Deposits that are components of M2 and M3 (but not M1), such as savings accounts and time deposits, have no reserve requirements and therefore can expand without regard to reserve levels. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve operates in a way that permits banks to acquire the reserves they need to meet their requirements from the money market, so long as they are willing to pay the prevailing price (the federal funds rate) for borrowed reserves. Consequently, reserve requirements currently play a relatively limited role in money creation in the United States.

Additionally, large private lending firms with access to global capital resources for commercial real estate lending are proliferating. They are not subject to any reserve requirements. I presently work with about a dozen of these firms.

Hope this helps. Good luck [except when the 'stros are playing the Cubs ].


Regards,



Naz

Buzz, Max Pain on the Q's will hit at some point next week. At what level remains to be seen. Either MP will fall or price will move up to insure the overweighted put positions expire worthless.

With the overzealousness of bears during this recent market selloff, odds clearly favor the bulls over the next few sessions. A long position on the Q's appears to be a relatively low risk trade from current levels.

As for the terrorism factor, the late day news blow came when Spain reported that a van with explosives had been linked to the bombings and there were Arabic tapes in the van with verses from the Koran. Shortly after that Reuters broke a news story from England saying Al Queda had claimed responsibility for the bombing in a letter to a newspaper. The letter reportedly claimed a similar attack was imminent in the United States. Traders hit the sell button and the bottom dropped out of the market at 2:30. However, American officials were quick to point out that Al Qaeda does not normally claim responsibility for attacks and suggested the letter was bogus and designed to shift blame from the real suspects.

There were some positive technical developments on the session, despite the late day plunge. Declining volume beat advancing volume better than 4:1. Declining issues were 3:1 over advancers. Volume spiked to over 5.0 billion shares which represents the biggest day since January 29th. The majority of this volume came in the last hour and it could be seen as a news washout. A potential capitulation day when considering it came at the end of an already oversold condition.

I just don't see much down near term based on this and my previous post. The same thing happened at the beginning of August last year and everyone thought the markets were done at that time. It didn't happen then and isn't going to happen now IMO.

Anyway, good luck on Friday.


Regards,



Naz

Buzz.....................................................

My compliments to you. That was an outstanding trade.

I believe traders would benefit from more discussion of options strategies such as the classic straddle that you described. Especially from yourself and your alter ego Brig.

Good luck.


Regards,


Naz

Buzzy, I think after an early low, the Q's begin a multiday bounce ahead of next week's triple hag OPEX.

Q's well below Max Pain which presently sits @36.675

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/option_chain.asp?symbol=QQQ&selected=QQQ

P/C closed at a decidedly exceesive bearish reading @1.20. The 5 day approaching 1.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$CPC,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb5!b10][vc60][iUb5!La12,26,9]&...

5 day TRIN in oversold territory, especially on the DJIA/NYSE.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19907539

5 day RSI at lowest level since the 9/11 attacks.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb5!La12,26,9]&...

Good luck.


Regards,



Naz

Raw, instead of the hype, you should be focusing on the substance regarding VEII. Some excerpts from your link which you conveniently neglected to point out:

The Rio hotel-casino is negotiating with a Las Vegas development company to build a giant ferris wheel behind the resort -- the latest announcement in a long line of Las Vegas Strip observation wheel concepts that have been proposed over the years but haven't yet materialized.

Financing has not been lined up for the project, which would be entirely owned and developed by Voyager Entertainment International Inc. -- a company with no material assets that is on shaky financial footing.

"We do not anticipate enough positive internal operating cash flow until such time as we can generate substantial revenues, which may take the next few years to fully realize," the company said last month in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. "Voyager continues to have a working capital deficiency that raises substantial concern regarding its ability to continue as a growing concern."

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/gaming/2003/dec/24/516076180.html

The contingent $61 million bank L.O.C. is meaningless. They had that in place before Rio. Bottom line is, they are no further along in securing complete construction financing than they were before they made the announcement about the Rio Las Vegas project.

I'll also lay you odds that if, and its a big if, they manage to secure all of their construction financing, the $61 million bank L.O.C. won't even be part of the equation. Additionally, I predict they will ultimately have to give up a piece of the company in order to get it done.

Don't hold your breath waiting for an announcement about ground breaking in March or April. Its simply not going to happen in March and chances are remote for April. Its also possible if they get the financing done, that the first Voyager may not even end up in Las Vegas.

We'll see how this plays, but they are still a long way away from getting the funding completed.



Regards,



Naz

Tell me something, Mr. Voyager. What DIRECT involvement does the $5 billion (capitalization is actually over $6 B) Harrah's have in the financing negotiations for the construction of Voyager?

"When it is announced, the stock may very well pop. Expect the announcement this month.

O.K. I'll be expecting to see that announcement by no later than the end of March. However, I'll give you odds that its not going to happen.

Good luck.


Regards,



Naz

Buzzy, I'm with you on FMDAY. Been holding that stock for the past week or so. More upside to come IMO.

Daily technical opinion on it is a sell, but only slightly overbought short term. I view it as the fast money crowd exiting the stock near term creating a healthy consolidation. Strong hands will send this higher.

TECHNICAL OPINION - FUTUREMEDIA PLC ADS (FMDAY) - 03/04/2004

Daily Opinion: SELL
Thursday's Bearish (down) move, forming a recent high, is accompanied by huge volume (383% of average), suggesting a continuation lower on the next bar.

Short-Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above its 50-day moving average at 0.94 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is slightly overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (66.35).

Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (FMDAY) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The stock has support at 1.29 and 1.06. If the stock breaks down through support at 1.29 then it will probably continue lower to 1.06. The stock will meet resistance at 2.06 and 2.26. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 2.06 then it will probably continue higher to 2.26. The 200-day moving average is at 0.51. This will also act as support. The stock is neutral according to the Stochastic Indicator (53.19).

Good luck.


Regards,



Naz

14theroad.................................................

Thank you my friend. Cute little picture of the Rocket in your post. You are going to enjoy it even more when your beloved Astros win the Central division title this year and go on and play in their first ever World Series.

The Cubs are no threat. They look great on paper, but when they actually get on the field and play the games, they are still going to be same old loveable losers.

What a town I live in. As if blowing up a baseball is going to cure all the past misery and failures of this franchise. What a bunch of bumpkins we are.

Good luck this season. 2004 is a great time to be a Houstonite. A Super Bowl and a potential World Series in the same year. Incredible.


Regards,



Naz

Raw.........................................................

Since we are already into March, and ground breaking is scheduled to begin either this month or next as you stated, I would expect to already have seen an announcement confirming this action.

I don't see how any of this is my client's problem. Voyager is just one of several options they are considering for a signature ride for their theme park development. What happens in Las Vegas isn't their concern.

His inquiry was merely a fact finding conference call looking to gather information on terms, conditions and costs of the Voyager. VEII approached him unsolicited yesterday about putting up the $25 million so they can get Rio Las Vegas started. Thus far, as you have correctly stated, they remain firm in their conviction about NOT wanting additional investors. While they may have additional funding proposals on the table, which you again correctly stated that none of us has any direct knowledge of, the funding sources certainly are not budging off of their position either and are not likely to do so, IMO.

Again, the longer this drags on, the weaker VEII's leverage becomes. If this isn't a concern for VEII shareholders, then you are burying your head in the sand.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

Buzzy.......................................................

I had some complications and it didn't take. Fortunately, I retained my teeny unit in a baby food formaldehyde jar. Since it wasn't of much use before the operation, I just stapled it back on.

How did your lobotomy procedure go?


Regards,



Naz

Buzzy - ADL.................................................

With last Thurday's approval of DNA's colon cancer drug Avastin, I took that to be a positive development for ADL.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040226/sfth066_1.html

I believe the FDA is targeting colon cancer remedies as a priority. Keep in mind that ADL's DR-70 is a colon cancer test kit and not a drug, thereby having fewer hurdles to cross.

I would speculate that ADL has responded to all of the FDA's inquiries at this point and that we should be hearing some positive news near term.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

Husky.....................................................

Thank you for the kind words. I'm semi retired from posting on trader boards. I'm very busy and active otherwise.

I'm still holding VAPH . Much more to come..........

Good luck.


Regards,



Naz

O.T. Beachlov...............................................

Thank you for your PM yesterday. I don't have PM service here since I'm merely a freeloader .

I'm doing fine, but just not posting much anymore. I hope all is well with you and good luck on your future endeavors and trades.

Feel free to send me an email if you would like to engage in a private discussion.



Regards,



Naz

RabbitDragon...............................................

Thanks for the kind words. Posting is merely an abberation for me these days. My schedule and certain confidentiality agreements I'm under generally preclude me from doing much in the way of chatroom participation.

VEII just happens to be one in which I am not under any type of confidentiality restriction at this time. Its possible I may be placed under a non disclosure agreement in the near future if they change their negotiating position. We'll see.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

Raw - >> they're expectations are ridiculous regarding a proposed offer for venture capital. >>

I fully agree! 5 employee penny stock wants $86 million at 7% interest?

Ridiculous! But as a shareholder, I really like ridiculous in favor of the company.


Raw :)


PS - honestly, my expectations were around 12% interest.

That has nothing to do with a venture capital proposal. These are completely separate and distinct arrangements. I've outlined it all in my first response to you. The bank is in fully collateralized first position.

Good luck.


Regards,



Naz

Raw - re: XMSR had a harder time securing roughly the same amount of money and it was very dilutive and a similar interest rate (they're $100 million financing package back in Dec 2002).

Like I stated in my previously, long winded post, you can't make any final determination about dilution until VEII secures that final traunch of capital. No one is biting at their proposal and I doubt anyone will as its currently structured.

Let's face reality - a 4 employee penny stock that secures $61 million in financing at 7% interest is not only got some goods - but the joint press release with Harrah's (NYSE: HET) is going to make the stock rise for a Swing trade ;)

Raw, that 'joint press release' with Harrah's doesn't mean anything unless VEII secures all the funding for construction of Voyager. Harrah's is merely conveying the land to build it on. They have indicated there is no interest on their part to partially fund Voyager's construction. If Harrah's were interested in providing the balance of the funds, ground would have long since been broken on its construction.

Why hasn't ground been broken yet? They announced this deal with Harrah's on 12/23/03. And nothing has happened since then. And nothing will until they secure the balance of their funding.



Regards,



Naz

Raw - VEII...................................................

1) "I see that as nothing but good news... You're telling me they secured $61 million at 7% interest, non-dilutive? I feared a lot of dilution and/or obnoxious interest rates."

Everything I stated in my previous post to you is a fact as of yesterday. I suppose this is good news to an eternal optimist . To someone like me, who is in the commercial finance/venture capital business, their $61 million L.O.C. is meaningless because they have nothing until they secure their last round of funding. They can't do anything with those funds until they break ground because its a construction loan, secured by other assets. If you have sufficient collateral, you can secure loans like this without a problem. Its the last round of financing that is the most challenging, believe me.

What they are offering for the $25 million worth of funding is between 33%-50% annualized interest over a two to three year period. On the surface, that may sound like a great deal for an private investor, but unless you are willing to write the check for them under those terms, you need to take a hard look at the facts of the case before making that determination.

First, the private investor must accept a second position against the collateral behind the bank. Therefore, in the event of a loan default, the bank receives all the proceeds of an asset liquidation until they are made whole before the party in the second position receives anything. How much is a white elephant, space aged ferris wheel worth upon liquidation? I can assure you, it nowhere near $86 million.

Second, they don't have a track record to prove they can support generating returns sufficient enough to assure a private investor they are capable of meeting their obligations.

Third, for $25 million worth of private placement capital, an investor can obtain a far superior deal over what VEII is offering from numerous other ventures. Don't kid yourself about any lack of dilution until they have that final $25 million in the bank. The VC's all know that VEII can't do anything without that final traunch of funding. Each day that goes by without that money is costing VEII dearly. Wait and see what they ultimately have to give up in order to obtain the balance of their funding before you draw any conclusions.

2) "All you really said is that VEII management consists of shrewd negotiators. Of course they'll bend to get the other $25 million if they have to. You just reduced my concern from $86 million in dilution to $25 million, MAYBE, in dilution .... AKA practically nothing."

Its still too soon to make that judgement about being shrewd negotiators. It was a nice move getting the RIO Las Vegas to convey them the property for the Voyager. As for the $61 million L.O.C., banks don't make those types of loans without strong collateral behind them. They obviously were able to provide sufficient collateral to satisfy the loan committee. Understand though, that this is a variable rate loan. That 7% rate isn't good forever. If key short term rates head higher, so will theirs.

Yes, most assuredly they will have to bend to secure the other $25 million. Do you know how far they will have to bend? That is the unknown variable in the equation. Its safe to say they haven't come anywhere near to establishing that inflection point yet. Again, there is nothing to get excited about until they have secured ALL of the financing. You can't draw ANY conclusions about dilution until that funding is in place.

3) "Of course they haven't had any revenues in 3 years. What were you expecting them to sell - cotton candy?"

What kind of a response is that? How do we even know they are capable of selling cotton candy?

This company is a one trick pony, period. Until that pony executes that trick on a revenue generating basis, how confident can you be?

4) Their current cash needs are $25,000 per month. They dilute by a tiny amount to keep from being "tapped out." Raising funds to keep from being "tapped out" for $25,000 for an .80 stock price isn't even worth talking about.

You obviously haven't looked at their current balance sheet lately. Believe me, it is worth talking about, because each day that goes by without their funding in place gradually reduces their leverage strength. Not that they have much at this point anyway.

Thanks for the info - $61 mil of $86 mil being credit at 7% interest is very encouraging news although I'm sure they've had several offers on the table for the other $25 million. The company has stated they are NOT looking for investors, they don't need investors, a call to the design company says they are in the last phase just before breaking ground, and Harrah's/RIO both say they're breaking ground shortly and the plan is an absolute done deal (call 800-PLAY-RIO for example and ask any employee).

Raw, I think you are kidding yourself at this point. You can't make the statement that you are sure they've had several offers on the table for the other $25 million. However, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, since I don't know either because this is something won't disclose.

The key is, what are the terms of these offers?
Do the VC's want 50% of the company? 60%? 70%? I can assure you that they won't invest that kind of money without a substantial ownership position. And there goes your anti-dilution theory down the drain.

The company has stated they are NOT looking for investors, they don't need investors

That is true. They are looking for private lenders. Which is inherently the problem. What do they have to offer to secure that debt? Read my response to your question #1. They don't have anything to offer IMO.

Until they change their stance on investors, I doubt they make any headway in securing the balance of their funding.

a call to the design company says they are in the last phase just before breaking ground, and Harrah's/RIO both say they're breaking ground shortly and the plan is an absolute done deal (call 800-PLAY-RIO for example and ask any employee).

I guess thats why they felt compelled to solicite my client for that "last phase just before breaking ground". That "last phase" is always the toughest. And what exactly does "breaking ground shortly" mean? Please define "shortly" for me. Otherwise, its meaningless hype to me.

Good luck.



Regards,


Naz

Raw - VEII. Presently, this company still faces some very serious financial challenges.

I am currently involved in a theme park financing development project that is taking a hard look at putting the Voyager on their site. The project manager had a conference call with VEII's executive branch yesterday. Here are the particulars:

The Voyager wheel as pictured in your post cost about $86 million a piece to construct. The Voyager design took about four years to complete. VEII is still short approximately $25 million from being able to break ground on the Rio Las Vegas project. It is my understanding that they have an L.O.C. in place for about $61 million @7%.

They asked my client about doing a private placement with them for the $25 million balance. He called me afterwards to discuss the particulars of their offer. Suffice it to say, its going to take some divine intervention in order to bridge their $25 million gap under the terms they are offering. Its simply not going to happen unless they become considerably more flexible and creative in their proposal. The Rio Las Vegas is merely going to convey the property to VEII to build the Voyager. They have no interest in committing any funds towards the construction. Neither does the state or local governments in Nevada.

My client is mulling a counter proposal to them, but I am discouraging him from doing so at this time. This company hasn't had a dime in revenues going on three years now. They are virtually tapped out and they're expectations are ridiculous regarding a proposed offer for venture capital.

The situation is certainly apt to change if management becomes both more realistic and desparate. One thing about the company I do like is their going concern business model and their co-op policy with the sites they plan to build the Voyager on. However, it will only become relevant if and when, they ever actually build one. We'll see.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

Star - I added more ADL this morning on the Nervous Nellie panic selloff.

ADL must not know all the nuances of filling out an FDA application. Clerical errors are quite common place, particularly when dealing with governmental agencies.

But this has nothing to do with the viability of their test kit. Its likely this error has already been addressed and will be rectified by next week, just as other clerical issues have been in cases I've been involved with. Just have a little patience. Remember TRIB? Stock did nothing for six months and them skyrocketed after it finally got its FDA appproval.

Good luck.


Regards,



Naz

flota720....................................................

Now thats what I'm talking about. I see I'm not the only fan of waterfall scenes. They did a very nice job compiling those shots. Thanks.


Regards,



Naz

O.T. 14theroad...............................................

Thank you. Very nice pics. You covered just about everything. The naked lady hiding up her animated privates is humerous touch.

Just make sure your Super Bowl pics return home safely .

Have fun and get some sleep!


Regards,



Naz

O.T. 14theroad.............................................

LOL. Well I guess the 'light train' is a big step up from horse and buggy for most Houstonians .

But just how many more innocent lives will sensely be lost because of this renegade 'light train' monster??

BTW, if your camera gets lost, you may not be bitter, but I'll be upset. I've already got bids on Ebay for your pics .


Regards,



Naz

D-Zine-R.....................................................

Thank you Beavis. Rejoinder? If only I owned a dictionary.....

Nice shoe. Great for banging against your skull when stoned .




Regards,



Naz

lonestar49 - good pics........................................

Thank you. Good pics? I like good pics. You have any good pics? I like mountains, oceans, waterfalls, rivers, nature, classic European homes, farm houses, naked women, etc. If you have any of those, feel free to post them.

Good luck.


Regards,


Naz

O.T. 14theroad...............................................

Thank you. What do you mean by tonight will be your day of rest? YOU HAVE THE SUPER BOWL IN TOWN BUDDY!! You can rest when you die !

Alright, take a night off. At least work on putting your video together, LOL. I hope to see it on Ebay by next week.

Thanks for the Super Bowl link. I'm glad you enjoyed yourself at the local heroes party. Personally, I'd prefer to attend the 'Models & Bottles' Party.

I also took the tour of your new light rail system, which opened on January 1. Looks very nice. Its my understanding that it runs 7 1/2 miles from downtown Houston to near Reliant Stadium. I also heard from a former Chicagoan who now lives in Houston, that eight cars have already crashed into the new trains. Eight cars in less than 30 days? And I thought Chicago drivers were bad, LOL.

Take care and be safe.


Regards,



Naz

MW, LOL. Yes, these type of fast, nasty drops are perfect for us bottomfeeders.

I'll believe this drop is sustainable when I see it. Thus far, this looks just like another typical bull market correction. Fast, hard drop, to be followed by another grind back up as shorts again suffer another round of slow pain. These 'corrections' happen so fast that many shorts don't even catch most of the drop, or have the guts to hold it all the way down.

We are well below Max Pain on the Cubes at this point. Once again, this will need to resolve itself either with a drop in MP, or yet another bounce higher. Its been awhile since we've been over a point below MP.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

Interesting Fed action today....................................

From Briefing.com:

"As expected, the FOMC left policy rates unchanged, with the federal funds rate targeted at the 45 year low of 1.00%. The statement that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period was dropped, as the Fed said it "can be patient in removing accommodation" -- again suggesting an on-hold stance in the months/quarters ahead (the next policy meeting is scheduled for March 16)."

Removing the "considerable period" language means that the Fed won't be buying bonds to supress rates. This further means that money is getting tighter, therefore stocks should dip, as may metals and commodities.

They also must have foreseen this reaction to their announcement today. This morning the Fed announced a large $9 bln overnight repo, for a net $5.5 bln addition. This is out of character for the Fed, to conduct any open market operations at all on an announcement day.

We'll see if the Fed's dealers come out and flex their muscle in the last hour of trading.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

For the last time............................................

I have already addressed this issue:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2193750

I despise anyone promoting or pumping paid services on public message boards for their own gain. I know that you don't generate all of your own leads. Ever heard of Mark Schultz?

However, I'm going to get to the bottom of this matter. So far no one is owning up to knowingly using your service. The last thing I want to do is endorse any pay-per-view stock picking service. Therefore, I'm not going to post any more trades for the foreseeable future until this matter is resolved to my satisfaction.

Have a good weekend and good luck to everyone.


Regards,



Naz

Buzz - update on ADL.........................................

Looks like there may be a short term delay in receiving FDA approval.

I just found out from my Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey that the FDA responded to ADL's application for their cancer test kit on December 15. The FDA had a few procedural questions relating to dates, etc. ADL responded quickly to the questions.

If the FDA does not ask additional questions within another 30 days, that there likely will be no additional questions, which means they must be very close to FDA approval.

Also, the ACT Monkey learned that if the company receives approval by the FDA that someone has lined up a Today Show interview with the president of ADL by hostess, Katie Couric. Katie Couric is a big promoter of cancer cures and cancer awareness since her husband died of colon cancer. If an interview with Couric does transpire, the exposure factor for ADL would be significant.

Good luck.



Regards,



Naz

China-US: Double bubbles in danger of colliding

By Ian Williams

What happens when two bubbles collide? Do they both burst, or do they coalesce and become an even bigger bubble - which will eventually burst even more spectacularly? That is the question posed by the growth figures from both the US and China, whose growth rates are tied in ways that neither seems to want to admit too loudly.

Even before this week's figures on China's explosive 9.1 percent growth in 2003, which many commentators thought actually understated the reality, the United Nations' annual economic report had identified the People's Republic of China as the locomotive for growth in Asia (with a nod to India), and added that the US with its 4 percent growth rate will do the same job for the industrialized world. But once again, the question must be asked - will these two Chinese and US engines run in the same direction indefinitely, or will they begin to diverge? Indeed, even more scarily, will they have a head-on collision and involve the world economy in the mother of all train-wrecks?

The problems have been noted. The UN report cited "the rapid rising weight of China in the world economy and its role in the present recovery," but it also warned that UN economists see a need for the US to reduce its government deficit. That echoed the very trenchant International Monetary Fund (IMF) report that described the deficit as "perilous" in the long run, posing "significant risks" to the rest of the world. IMF economists also cautioned that one should add to the short term a US$500 billion deficit that the US administration is running, a further US$47 trillion in unfunded long-term commitments for US Social Security and the federally funded Medicare health program for the elderly and indigent. And the IMF pointed out that there were additional liabilities from cash-strapped local governments, forced to borrow to compensate for federal cutbacks.

On the American trade deficit, the IMF also warned ominously, "The United States is on course to increase its net external liabilities to around 40 percent of its GDP within the next few years - an unprecedented level of external debt for a large industrial country." The report suggested that this situation would push the dollar even further down.

On the other side of the Pacific, perhaps it should not be regarded as a token of maturity that the money managers who poured funds into AOL, MCI, Enron and Tyco - all with problems, to say the least - are now pouring millions into Chinese IPOs with the same enthusiasm. It is difficult to see any more economic rationale in the 1,600-times oversubscribed China Green Holdings than the Internet Bubble of the last decade.

And now US investment banks are licking their chops at the prospects of taking Chinese Banks public. However, the $45 billion that Beijing has put into two of the Big Four government-owned banks can be seen as a mature appreciation of their problems - or as a symptom of the continuing cronyism and lack of democracy and transparency in the system and a down payment on what Standard & Poor's estimates could be up to $600 billion needed to bail out the bad loans. But that little detail probably won't stop Wall Street from rushing to buy if the banks are floated, as Beijing plans.

The China Bubble is expanding dangerously
At one time, China's autarkic economy protected it from outside influence. But along with this week's figures on economic growth came another ominous big number. From once being nearly self-sufficient in oil, China is now the second biggest oil importer in the world - and is on the verge of needing massive coal imports as well. The China Bubble has expanded to a point where it will soon reach the sharp edges of infrastructural capacity and reckless over-investment to the point of over-production. That is when bubbles burst.

Most publicized American forecasters tend to be Panglossianly bullish. They only ever see the upside, usually of the American economic prospects, but many of their China watchers seem to be wearing the same rose-colored glasses, seemingly oblivious to how co-dependent the two economies are.

For a more detached viewpoint, to look at the two economies separately is like looking at the two wheels of a bike without looking at the frame that connects them. Looking at the US-China bi-cycle in motion exacerbates the separate notes of caution that international agencies have sounded against each country. In fact, there is an inherent and additional precariousness in this double bubble act.

Veteran New York money manager Arnold Schmeidler - who did not invest in dot.com IPOs - warns, "We are in a period unlike anything since the 1930s when the world is confronting deflationary forces." The president and founder of A R Schmeidler & Co Inc asks how sustainable it is that "American auto companies are selling their production at zero interest rates, because there is excess capacity. But China is building auto plants to make hundreds of thousands of vehicles, so we have extra capacity being brought into a market where we already have excess capacity. So the trend is towards 40 cents an hour wages and top quality competing against the US."

Schmeidler concludes, "The single greatest force for deflation is when you have open trade between nations that have the ability to import the most efficient manufacturing expertise into a low-wage-base society, and so can produce products of the same quality as the high wage economy. The price pressure on the product allows consumers to get more for their money and they benefit. But it is disinflationary, if not deflationary."

In fact, of course, China currently is lending the US the money to buy Chinese production.

For example, as the "boom" of President George W Bush takes off, puzzled American commentators are asking where are all the extra jobs that the apparently positive indicators should be creating. In fact, they are being created abroad - mostly in China.

China recycles trade surplus into US Treasury bonds
American companies may have forgotten what Henry Ford propounded when he first built his Model T: If you do not pay high enough wages to your workers, they can't afford to buy your product. One simple basis for that Bush boom is that China is recycling its US$100 billion-plus trade surplus with the US back into dollars, and especially into US Treasury bonds. Almost half of the US Treasury bonds are now owned in Asia. So China is financing Bush's bold economic experiment: running two or more wars simultaneously with a huge budget and trade deficit, and equally huge tax handouts for the richest Americans.

One has to question the long-term economic rationale for China of putting its long-term assets into very low-interest bonds in a currency that has already dropped recently by a third - and is going to drop even more. It certainly makes strategic sense: if push came to shove over, for example, the Taiwan Strait, all Beijing has to do is to mention the possibility of a sell order going down the wires. It would devastate the US economy more than any nuclear strike the Chinese could manage at the moment.

But far from wanting to devastate the dollar, China is more concerned to maintain its currency's parity with the dollar, even as it devalues massively against the Euro or the Yen. Indeed, without those Sino-dollars flowing back, the dollar would have tanked even more.

There is a big multiplier effect here. China only accounts for 3 percent of the world's GDP, but for from three to five times as much of the world's growth. And its economy is disproportionately trade-oriented. So its double act with the US - both the seller of consumer goods on a huge scale and the financer for US' purchase makes it even more important.

It does not help that the US, which has the experience, certainly shows no signs of using it to assess longer term dangers, and even if China had that foresight of perils ahead, Beijing lacks the experience to act effectively.

Dangerously, the global economy is faced by an addictive combination of China - a developing country with many problems of social instability - and the US - which the recent IMF report hints is a rapidly undeveloping country - whose fiscal irresponsibility is compounded by a political immaturity that tends to ignore geopolitical and economic reality.

If the US economy sinks and Americans stop buying Chinese goods, then it will compound the US slump as China first stops buying US bonds that have inflated the American bubble and then moves on to selling them. On the other hand, if the Chinese economy falters and it stops recycling dollars into the US economy, then the boom stops anyway. Indeed, it seems that China increasingly will need more of that cash to pay for energy imports anyway.

But New York money manager Schmeidler, and others who remember that economics is the dismal science, realize that it is still better science than politicians drumming up votes and investment bankers drumming up business seem to understand. The West is in the red, and if it crashes, the East may join it.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FA23Dj01.html

The U.S. Money Slowdown: Should You Be Worried?

2004-01-22 08:30:00

U.S. monetary growth has plunged in recent months. The reasons are not fully understood, but there is no corroborating evidence of a liquidity squeeze.

The eye-catching slump in U.S. money growth would be very bearish if it was signaling building problems in financial intermediation. However, there is no support for such an interpretation. Money weakness in late 2003 reflected the unwinding of an earlier surge related to mortgage refinancing and tax cuts. More recently, it may have been due to a shift out of deposits into equities. The money slowdown in the early 1990s was associated with severe banking problems as shown by the high level of our Financial Stress Index. The Index is currently very low. Bottom line: weak money is troubling, but not yet alarming. Stay tuned.

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/highlights.asp?pre=PRE-20040122.GIF