MMCLUB

[Naztrader]

Good morning HD28 re: shorts

I think you're still a little too early in setting up short positions. I've been using the downdraft this morning to get long some Q's for a swing.

If this turns into a trend change and we start taking out the bullish trend underpinnings, we can become bears. I'd wait for price to inflict such a serious blow.

From a strictly technical perspective, alot of technical resistance points have been taken out over the last few weeks. Having these breakouts fail would be an excellent prerequisite for a trend change.

Per my sentiment post this weekend, stocks under accumulation, particularly in techland, are on the rise. Bears are still too lathered looking at forward trading options on the Q's. Other indicators are neutral at worst, so I just don't see a negative near term trend change yet.

At such point a discernable trend change occurs, I plan to take a hard look at the market's technical 'weakest links', whoever they may be.

As for your prospective short candidates, AMGN and CCMP, here is some information for your viewing pleasure.

Insiders have been busy taking their AMGN chips off the table:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=AMGN

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/HeadlineStocks/P58962.asp

TECHNICAL OPINION - AMGEN INC (AMGN) - 09/22/2003

Daily Opinion: HOLD
Monday's Bullish (up) bar with low volume (42% of average) has no significant technical importance.

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is slightly above its 50-day moving average at 68.35 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (77.19), so look for a possible pullback.

Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (AMGN) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The stock has support at 68.35 and 64.55. If the stock breaks down through support at 68.35 then it will probably continue lower to 64.55. The stock will meet resistance at 69.82 and 81.42. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 69.82 then it will probably continue higher to 81.42. The 200-day moving average is at 60.28. This will also act as support. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (82.74).

*************************************************************

Insiders similarly are selling their CCMP shares as well. From a technical perspective, CCMP would appear to be your best bet as a short, as its one of the few techs trading below its 50 dma. However, it may be due for a dead cat near term since its oversold.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CCMP

TECHNICAL OPINION - CABOT MICROELECTRONICS (CCMP) - 09/22/2003

Daily Opinion: HOLD
Monday's low volume (39% of average), with little or no movement relative to the open, has no significant technical importance. Monday's gap down in price suggests further new lows are ahead, but due to the low volume the stock might be exhausted.

Short-Term Opinion: UNDERPERFORM
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bearish (down) and the stock is below its 50-day moving average at 62.31 which also confirms its Bearish (down) trend. The stock is slightly oversold according to the Stochastic indicator (34.10).

Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (CCMP) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The stock has support at 60.84 and 55.17. If the stock breaks down through support at 60.84 then it will probably continue lower to 55.17. The stock will meet resistance at 61.82 and 67.66. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 61.82 then it will probably continue higher to 67.66. The 200-day moving average is at 50.02. This will also act as support. The stock is slightly oversold according to the Stochastic Indicator (28.29).

Good luck.



Regards,




Naz