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Good Article - just patiently waiting - great entry area imo
CLNE <link back> Seeking Alpha Article
seekingalpha.com/article/2233483-3-reasons-why-clean-energy-fuels-pullback-is-a-buying-opportunity?uprof=51
Anup Singh
Special situations, growth at reasonable price, tech, biotech
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3 Reasons Why Clean Energy Fuels' Pullback Is A Buying Opportunity
May. 22, 2014 1:57 PM ET | 6 comments | About: Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE), Includes: WPRT
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary
Clean Energy Fuels' stock price is down this year, but its financial performance has been terrific.
Clean Energy has invested aggressively in infrastructure to benefit from the growth of the natural gas trucking market.
Westport Innovations' product development moves will strengthen Clean Energy's prospects.
Clean Energy's expected earnings growth is also quite impressive, making it a good long-term buy.
Natural gas provider Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) is on the comeback trail after posting solid first-quarter results. The stock was down more than 30% in 2014, but a terrific performance in the first quarter has sent Clean Energy's shares up by almost 9% since the results were declared on May 8. However, Clean Energy Fuels always looked like a good bet since the company is plying its trade in the fast growing natural gas market and is well-positioned to benefit from Westport Innovations' (WPRT) natural gas engines.
The rise in Clean Energy's stock price is not surprising, as revenue for the first quarter increased 43% to $95.3 million as compared to last year's $66.8 million. This was above analysts' estimate of $89.95 million. Also, Clean Energy reported a loss of $0.30 per share, which was in line with consensus estimates. The company reported 59.3 million gallons delivered in the quarter as compared to last year's 49.9 million gallons, an increase of 24%.
These results, no doubt, are quite fantastic. However, Clean Energy looks set to get even better going forward. Moreover, since the stock is down around 25% this year, investors should definitely consider capitalizing on Clean Energy's drop to add more shares. Let's see why.
Smart investments should drive growth
Clean Energy has been building its fueling infrastructure and in-house capabilities over the past couple of years in anticipation of a 12 liter natural gas engine coming to the market, leading to an increase in demand. This decision has turned out to be right as today Clean Energy has 96 truck-friendly fueling stations open, which is four times of what its closest competitor has.
The release of the Cummins Westport 12 liter engine will act as a catalyst for the heavy-duty trucking industry, which will begin its transition to natural gas fueling. As stated by Seeking Alpha writer, Michael Fitzsimmons --
Cummins Inc. (CMI) recently announced its new ISX12-G engine, a 12-liter natural gas engine that delivers 400 horsepower and 1450 ft-lb of torque. It can run on either compressed ("CNG") or liquid ("LNG") natural gas and meets all 2013 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and California Air Resource Board emission standards. It also meets 2014 EPA and U.S. Department of Transportation fuel economy and greenhouse gases regulations. This is the engine the long-haul trucking sector has waited for and it is an absolute game changer. The engine is a strong catalyst for Cummins and should power the stock 25% higher over the next 12 months.
Kenworth has already delivered its first truck based on the new ISX12-G engine.
Moreover, executives from Kenworth, Volvo (OTCPK:VOLVY), Mack, and Freightliner have reported good results about the sales and performance of the 12 liter engine. This is indeed a positive sign for Clean Energy.
Westport's moves are catalysts for Clean Energy
Additionally, Clean Energy could also see a boost in its prospects from the moves of Westport Innovations. Westport and Cummins are in a joint venture to develop natural gas engines, and the 12 liter engine is a result of their collaboration. Also, Westport itself is looking to increase the reach of natural gas engines. As such, the company entered into a partnership with Indian auto company Tata Motors (TTM) and launched its new spark-ignited natural gas 3.8L turbocharged engine featuring the Westport WP580 Engine Management System (EMS).
Since Westport's system is able to support different engine configurations, the Westport WP580 EMS will also be used in Tata's 5.7L engine that targets medium-duty applications in late 2014. This is a smart move on Westport's part, as according to a Tata Motors executive --
India has one of the largest natural gas light-duty vehicle fleets in the world, and we see an enormous opportunity for natural gas trucks and buses with the development of fueling infrastructure.
Westport's press release goes on to state that --
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that India is the fourth largest energy consumer in the world. Vehicles are the country's second-largest consumer of energy (18%) after industry (42%), according to Thomson Reuters Foundation, and rising vehicle numbers and fuel prices have implications both for India's economy and its energy security. Westport believes that the adoption of natural gas as a transportation fuel will help reduce India's dependence on petroleum to meet the country's energy demand and improve local air quality challenges. Building upon Westport's natural gas components and aftermarket business in India, Westport is now establishing its OEM footprint with Tata Motors.
Hence, given the positive trends in the natural gas trucking market, Clean Energy's future looks bright and the company is undertaking a number of moves to make the most of it.
Focus on infrastructure
Clean Energy has already deployed capital to build its infrastructure base. Clean Energy has also made some strategic partnerships to boost its numbers. Management has reported that Kroger (KR), which is the country's largest grocery retailer, has partnered with Clean Energy as it transitions its fleet to natural gas. Kroger has placed orders for its first 40 LNG trucks, which will be fueled at Clean Energy gas stations.
Clean Energy has also win a contract for the operation and maintenance of four CNG stations it had built for Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART). These stations have fueled over 1.3 million gallons in the first quarter of this year. Currently, DART is operating 186 CNG buses and 112 light-duty CNG vehicles. It is expected to take delivery of another 185 CNG buses during the second quarter.
The company has undertaken various other multinational contracts such as the building of a LNG station and supplying LNG fuel for Anaheim Resort Transit. In the east, it has completed the construction of a CNG station for the Hillsborough Area Regional Transit in Tampa, Florida. In Canada, it has completed and commenced operations of BC Transit to the new CNG station in the Nanaimo, British Columbia. Apart from this, Clean Energy has many other customers and is continuously adding to its fleet.
Conclusion
Since Clean Energy isn't profitable yet, it is difficult to value the company based on traditional metrics. However, analysts expect its earnings to grow at a terrific CAGR of 25% for the next five years. Clean Energy has various projects in the pipeline and is spending aggressively to build its infrastructure. As such, investors should definitely capitalize on Clean Energy's weak share price performance this year to add more shares to their portfolio.
Ohman hmmm your 100% right on restricted shares you can't trade them for the holding period, which is usually a year. Had forgot about that detail and it is very critical. Still should reduce the shorts though since they are still responsible to cover the divy to their broker.
It does negate any concern about symbol change vs divy timing, and I assume that is why you mentioned it.
Great point and tactfully made!
Bol and thanks for that reminder since it negates much of the concern my other post laid out.
T2M
ORFG trading <link back> So far the volume is so, so, and those who sat on the bit at .02 should save a fair bit on a purchase, those who slapped the ASK are currently under water by <15%> today and possible a bit more as the day proceeds, hopefully it corrects by pm and close.
If we end up a few % green today 5-13% at the close, on so so volume, that will bolster the faith and keep helping the base pricing, interesting to see.
Off to play my daily golf round, good walk if nothing else. I eat to many snacks in front of the computer, and the stock can't hear me yell or cheer anyway, so I go for my walk/golf.
You guys continue the effort, GL to us.
T2M
Secco Fairly sure you know this but for those who may not - if they do the symbol change, as they have indicated in PRs, we then have to then wait for the new symbol shares to be delivered to our brokers that takes 1 wk up to 2 months (that is my experience with pinkys, although the brokers tell you a week to 10 days usually. *Not sure how that affects the divy timing. Just depends on if they issue the divy prior to the symbol change, or after it. Imho if after the new symbol change, it likely delays it further, not expedites it, jmhvo *If per chance, that is not the case and they issue the Divy prior to any symbol change then that could be done fairly rapidly imho.
Personally I would prefer the divy be given in the existing symbol, and prior to a symbol change. Under the new symbol it could take months to arrive, though that is never said by the broker, they normally say 1 wk to 3wks for pinkies. ** I have had actual share exchange just due to symbol change take a couple of months on a pinky.
Guess we shall see how it unfolds, but I am hoping they issue the divy prior to any symbol change and fairly quickly, that would increase trading flexibility for all. Imo the divy is as much a company threat to reduce shorting as anything, since shorts become responsible to cover a divy, perhaps that is why the X date has been delayed in the past on this one.
Bol 2 us on pennies we can always use it.
T2M
The PR says the 10% stock divy, for holders of 4/15, is alive and well. Hence, assuming one has held shares prior to the x date and the divy occurs, it should reduce our pre 4/15 cost by 10%. That would be nice imo.
Rather interesting, according to the PR it should be issued within 30+ days.
Fun to follow
Fingers are crossed for all of us and CLNE. Perhaps they are long term cramped at this point, but none the less crossed regardless.
BOL
TYVM PianOwire Folks would find they gain more and buy for less assuming most use the process, but guess we will see.
BOL
Jmvho but if any are buying tomorrow set your orders *under the bid, ie 02 and ***do not slap the ask, since that is what the shorts and profit takers want, almost guaranteed bidwhacking will likely ensue if ask slapping on mediocre volume takes place.
Imo if we get 4M+ on the bid at .02 it offers a great platform to build from, since the 20MA for volume is only 4M shares a day/ 10k share orders are great they are less likely to get bidwhacked (due to commissions and the inability to quickly trade out for profit takers.
BOL all - many of us have a bunch, now the trick is to force the moves up or retain the gains through smart trading. If you wish to sell for some reason, sit on the ask and you will increase what you get vs bidwhacking.
Wishing all luck on the adventure.
Jmho
T2M
Kettleman - there surely is no particular timing to this stock as it started with just about 0 for infastructure to drive distribution and has worked on it ever since. I too think it is a long term hold and thus have had it for years, core and trading shares.
No one can guess timing, surely not me, but buying in staggered price lots should be a good long term approach assuming the spread between lots is good. I was very surprised to see this go down as low as it did but then my crystal ball is in the shop.
Is the dip over? Who knows as this stock usually has a large % of float short position, so until I see that % down in the 7s I will not feel comfortable.
When we get some good numbers a couple of quarters in a row this will move, imo.
BOL
Whas not sure how that works since I don't short stocks, but seems like you might do that to reduce risk, if a rally is perceived pending, or if you wish to just not put all the eggs on one side of the equation.
Whas yes Schwab even gives us a P/C ration on our platforms to monitor that, but I seldom use it. Perhaps it is my bad. lol
Whas - any ideas what it might be?
Stock at this moment is up 5% on volume. Today's discussion looks to be a plus, although the mere appearance on CNBC usually boosts a stock.
Should prove interesting. Thanks for the heads up.
T2M
Annotated 3 year chart - many of us longer term investors continue to be patient. At some point as revenues increase, assuming margins remain decent, we should reap benefits. This continues to be a pillow stock imo and one which I add to with most 30% drops and later attempt to flip some trading shares. From this 3 year chart the money flow and the lack of accumulation are very telling and continue to be points to be vigilance for longer term.
I remain confident, though it is merely my opinion, that it will return to the low 20s at some point, but distribution and ease of access along with truck builds are critical to the SP and they will likely determine much of the timing of the SP and B/E for CLNE. Every dog gets a day in the sun and we should be no different, it becomes a question, as always, of when? jmho
Whass- interesting way of figuring this one out. Thanks much since offers many an approx yard stick to measure with. Thanks again
T2M
AEZS old Mar annotated chart - note how the gaps filled. Look for any gaps formed to fill imo. The chart has Mar 10 notes on it and the <link back> says it needed to hold 3.40 well it did not. It has the fall PDUFA so watch it as we come into summer/
Cash position http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=aezs&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
r/w me thinks u b correctamundo, roger that!
BOL
T2M
Hi Kei didn't know you were also in this one. Should do well for us imo.
Wrinks - trading well and dumping/ and any shorting has slowed pretty much to a crawl.
It is trading very nicely on decent volume with nice % gains 3 of the last 4 sessions and only a tiny red on the red day. Nice to see it move up, many of us are still adding as fence sitters are now starting to budge since the word seems to be that this may well move a lot for us.
BOL
T2M
OREX Hey Kei I had forgotten about the 6/10 PDUFA and just bought based on the chart and the repeating pattern, with the PDUFA that close I will change my stop, thanks for the nudge!
T2M
OREX looking at the chart it has a history of rather share V formations lately so I am in there for now to see if the pattern repeats or continues if not the stop is not tooooo far off.
BOL
PHT Retirement Fund? CEF 9+% Dist rate Monthly Distribution 4* rating Morningstar
Just something high yield, with monthly dist. Something for some retired folks like me who are willing to take average risk in exchange for above average return. This Closed End Fund -(Pimco fund) has a good history and this link lets you look at all aspects. Mostly MBS and or secured by asset.
Just a nice portion of what we may do, which has a nice track record over max life of fund 10+++ years. Not a big flip stock, a CEF.
Assuming the principle stays up around cost (and this site shows the graph) then 9% return on your money, going by the rule of 72s, takes approx. 8 years for it to double. That does assume the principle cost remains constant and we know there is fluctuation so if you have interest look at the 52wk H/L and set a lower entry, or $ cost average a sum into it monthly etc. Same as you would on many other investments. JMHO I have some of this but do not sell it or anything like that. Just a thought for you.
http://cef.morningstar.com/quote?t=PHT®ion=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
PHT Retirement Fund? CEF 9+% Monthly Distribution 4* rating Morningstar
Just something high yield, with monthly dist. Something for some retired folks like me who are willing to take average risk in exchange for above average return. This Closed End Fund -(Pimco fund) has a good history and this link lets you look at all aspects. Mostly MBS and or secured by asset.
Just a nice portion of what we may do, which has a nice track record over max life of fund 10+++ years. Not a big flip stock, a CEF.
Assuming the principle stays up around cost (and this site shows the graph) then 9% return on your money, going by the rule of 72s, takes approx. 8 years for it to double. That does assume the principle cost remains constant and we know there is fluctuation so if you have interest look at the 52wk H/L and set a lower entry, or $ cost average a sum into it monthly etc. Same as you would on many other investments. JMHO I have some of this but do not sell it or anything like that. Just a thought for you.
http://cef.morningstar.com/quote?t=PHT®ion=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
BOL
T2M
Bears.... Well, seems like you once again are trying to spin my post your way with the conspiracy baloney. Fine, YOU ARE BRILLIANT, there now someone else other than yourself has said so, time to reread things once again. Please try to read the post not just what you want it to say, before you reply.
The Post said
"bearspread - Actually, I think if you look I did not say anything about "the Mother of All Short Squeezes".
What I said and was getting at is that to avoid the dividends shorts would have to cover by the COB 4-14, and imo that is valid. **Now what does that amount to? Who knows for sure, not me and I seriously doubt not anyone here.
*How does the divy affect MMs shorting? No real ideal."
There is SOME PART of that which escapes you? Obviously, Sorry.
Have a Great Day, like I said I merely try to flip here and there. The part about any shorts regardless of number being responsible for dividends is an SEC rule, look it up.
See ya, no need for a reply since it hasn't yet 2x now depicted what I posed anyway.
T2M
pmony - RSI is very close to oversold on the charts so it backs up the article chartwise.
bearspread - Actually, I think if you look I did not say anything about "the Mother of All Short Squeezes".
What I said and was getting at is that to avoid the dividends shorts would have to cover by the COB 4-14, and imo that is valid. **Now what does that amount to? Who knows for sure, not me and I seriously doubt not anyone here.
*How does the divy affect MMs shorting? No real ideal.
I shouldn't think imo it can hurt the SP. What happens with the imminent symbol change and how does that affect MM shorting, shares other than naked have to be delivered for exchange as far as I know, I think Revenge posted that earlier. Then is all the shorting done by MMs naked or is some borrowed?
I am not a market maker so I can't give an answer.
Not trying to hype, tout, or scare anyone, so take it FWIW and look it up.
Have a good one
R..... didn't say squat about that, SPARKY, but before you jump down my throat read up a bit next time and do us both a favor, since being informed is better than not.
The topic is/ was/ MM rs and Naked shorting and if they could or not - all I originally said was I thought it was legal for them to under certain circumstances and sanctioned by the SEC.
That was correct according to regulation. The other BS on shorting was not part of what you jumped me on.
Thanks and have a good day!
When it comes to NAKED SHORTING perhaps you should read the SHO REG on it.
http://www.regsho.com/faq/nakedshorts.php
REVENGE - READ this NAKED SHORTING just a DD on SHO
RegSHO.com
SEC Regulation SHO Compliance Tool
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enter symbol
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[This FAQ has been excerpted, in part or its entirety, from Division of Market Regulation: Key Points About Regulation SHO]
II. "Naked" Short Sales
In a "naked" short sale, the seller does not borrow or arrange to borrow the securities in time to make delivery to the buyer within the standard three-day settlement period.3 As a result, the seller fails to deliver securities to the buyer when delivery is due (known as a "failure to deliver" or "fail").
Failures to deliver may result from either a short or a long sale. There may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver. For example, human or mechanical errors or processing delays can result from transferring securities in physical certificate rather than book-entry form, thus causing a failure to deliver on a long sale within the normal three-day settlement period. A fail may also result from naked short selling. For example, market makers who sell short thinly traded, illiquid stock in response to customer demand may encounter difficulty in obtaining securities when the time for delivery arrives.
Naked short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal securities laws or the Commission's rules. Indeed, in certain circumstances, naked short selling contributes to market liquidity. For example, broker-dealers that make a market in a security4 generally stand ready to buy and sell the security on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly quoted price, even when there are no other buyers or sellers. Thus, market makers must sell a security to a buyer even when there are temporary shortages of that security available in the market. This may occur, for example, if there is a sudden surge in buying interest in that security, or if few investors are selling the security at that time. Because it may take a market maker considerable time to purchase or arrange to borrow the security, a market maker engaged in bona fide market making, particularly in a fast-moving market, may need to sell the security short without having arranged to borrow shares. This is especially true for market makers in thinly traded, illiquid stocks such as securities quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board,5 as there may be few shares available to purchase or borrow at a given time.
footnotes
3 For more information on the three-day settlement period, also known as "T+3," see http://www.sec.gov/answers/tplus3.htm and http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/tplus3.htm.
4 For more information about market making, see http://www.sec.gov/answers/mktmaker.htm and http://www.sec.gov/answers/specialist.htm.
5 For more information on the OCTBB, see http://www.sec.gov/answers/otcbb.htm.
Borrow Rates (per share)
ORFG Wrinks - if the DIVY goes as scheduled X date of 4/15 Next Tues. That would mean imho, anyone shorting now will cover between now and the close Mon 4/14 or suffer having to pay a dividend.
That being the case we should see a nice pressure relief due to covering if there is a lot of MM shorting now. Since it is very doubtful they will not want to suffer a dividend, which means they will cover prior.
Unfortunately, if I recall though- MM rs can actually "Naked Short" legally, as the SEC Sanctioned MMs to do that for certain circumstances on any stock. I think they must cover within a period of 24 hours regardless though. I believe it is to provide liquidity and control the SP better. That is what I recall anyway.
Guess we will see if it has the theoretical effect.
T2M
Sheff - Fear and Greed index with various time frames on the meter.
Interesting and easy to read for all.
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Still the vol of 3.6M today is not even up to the 4.6+M which is the 20MA VOL
The issue ihmo is not so much the # of seller's shares,(volume is not that strong), it is the lack of buyers rushing in or bid sitting. Imo they are waiting on the sidelines for the dust to settle to buy imo.
Didn't get the needed volume north for its follow through yesterday. Good news is, though down, yesterday and today were both not strong volume days, and a lack of buyers was more notable than huge deluge of sellers.
Now to just wait for the name change and the symbol change and the stock divy?
Interesting/though a bit painful and not fun to own at present.
The Phoenix - I think you hit the nail on the head, volume is the key, since many have a ton of this stock imho and whatever we are seeing, whether it be profit taking, or fear of the dip, or being talked out of the stock prematurely, will ultimately prove out one way or the other on big volume not what we are seeing imo.
As for me I only invest small chunks at varying prices on most things, compared to most of the huge players I am a nat on an elephants arze. Pennys are Pennys some rocket some dive, but all fluctuate quite a bit in the process to get the: churning, fear, dilution, and profit taking finished, before much else can occur, if it is going to. If the power groups are pushing we should see it go well and if we were seeing them get out you would also see a ton of shares not this vol. jmho
Been wrong before and well could be now, but imo this is just rather normal stuff, though by no means what I prefer. The chart I put up the other day looked very potentially bullish, this morning it would look like an intraday reversal. Yesterday was still higher than 2 days prior so we shall see what today brings.
BOL
No idea of any poster with that name? You seem familiar so where did you find it?
Hi Sheff good point, when I get back today I will try and remember to see if I can get a graph and post it later. Hopefully I can find a superimposed Dow on a sentiment graph that would be interesting.
Bol
T2M
The dip or rise flucuation of 500k shares traded imho is not very indicative of much, for a stock with a float in the hundreds of millions.
Yesterdays volume was almost 1/3 weaker than the big 16% gain and volume day before it, so imho this is just a wait and see, jmho. I'm sure someone will buy if someone sells now or later, just depends on what you want to sell for.
BOL
T2M
Sheff AII had a sentiment reader I used to look at, but it was years ago. It always seem to indicate it was darkest before the dawn, so when the bullish sentiment sank far enough the big money came in and made the coin.
I don't recall the % parameters for it probably could be graphed similar to the CCI oscillator or and RSI oscillator perhaps an ADX D+ & D- I would suppose.
ADMP Bob you have been pushing this one for a while and this article surely supports the your reasoning. Thanks for the heads up PMony on the news
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1117866-joe-springer/2824873-the-adamis-family
ADMP Very good article by someone with a great batting ave for 2x-3x stocks last year. jmho
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1117866-joe-springer/2824873-the-adamis-family