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Jumping Johosophat! Look at the volume! These last 15-minute candles have bigger volume than when they set up the off ramp at the VWAP wall on Russell Rebalance Day.
I am so glad I recognized my mistake and went ahead and paid up last Friday by removing the taboo of chasing from my mind.
Yes I agree. Missing has stated on the record that AVXL will seek a partner for P3 ALZ. But if one wants to get a fair bargain one should show that one does not need them. I have the feeling that the results might be so good as to the shift the strategy. Or maybe no BP is willing to invest on an n-32?
If we get a clear signal on Retts ect it will be a game changer. No Placebo can prevent seizure. Those combined with the data we will present this month crazy.
I think Missing has been turning down the deep six long big expensive trials partnerships.
I think Missing , Skarpelos, the BOD and SA are feeling the weight of destiny and duty. Once Tom Skarpelos took the discovery from Dr. V he could have sold it for a nice profit but instead he divide his share with Missling. Anavex Life Sciences endeavors to be the anti-pharma.
Partner , Go alone will not matter too much. When will we be discovered?
Now one knows but price is spikling on volume
Fait Accompli! This thing has been decided! You just do not know what it is yet. If you have significant position check with your tax advisor. I for one will transfer all to an IRA nondeductible no limit on contributions. Contrary to common belief there is NO LIMIT on IRA contribution. Only limit to what can be tax deferred. PUT ALL AVXL in IRA after tax (paid tax already) then ROLL ELECTION IMMEDIATELY to ROTH! No Limit! You already paid taxes! (called backdoor Roth) Protection from TAXES forever! Protection from Creditors! Grows tax-free take out tax-free!! UNITED STATES INDEPENDENCE DAY! MAKE IT YOURS AS WELL! ANAVEX MEANS FREEDOM! FOR YOU AND THE WORLD. The future numbers will stagger you. Please believe. Research the history of GILD from 1999. $10 to $3200.
God Bless all. You are Supernatural do not forget it you came here for a reason.
n-300 has been mentioned on both FDA web site and I believe in discussion with Dr.Missling. I could be wrong but n-300 is clearly on the FDA website as lower range of the number of subjects that is the minimum. If we show a strong and clear signal approaching or with statistical significance on the data so far it will mitigate towards a smaller N. The adaptive trial as designed was to get as much information as possible in the best time frame.
N-600 would be reasonable. N-3000 then we are just going along for a ride with a BP deep six. I truly believe what Anavex has is a paradigm shift and so far there is a clear and discernable signal that would not be enhanced with a greater N. We will have to see the data, the better the data and signal the smaller the N to show the signal is not a fluke.
Placebo effect is real but some would say it is a result not only of hope but from the care and attention and the laying on of hands from other human beings. Somewhat like American Indian women crying into the wounds of their husbands or fathers. Something in the tears MAY have helped but the fact that they were there doing that was more important maybe?
An N-300 will not support more than the ethnic group studied so should be fairly homogeneous. Will also need a separate study for Japan and separate for Korea 100% distinct from Japan. Australia MIGHT be a proxy for USA but a doubt it. We should have minimum n-600 USA and n-300 Australia n-300 Japan n-300 Korea.
Some are focused on the patent issues but I think you are right to focus on the trial design. OK I agree USA is so diverse we will need a big N to encompass all of our wonderful ethnic diversity.
Lucky for us all we have to do is invest our money and prophesized if we so choose.
I think you are right about going it alone, I do not think they trust BP and have a determination of destiny. Skarpelos moved from the chaos of Athens to the insulation of Geneva and I checked the SEC filings the 4 million shares (pre-split) granted to Dr. Missling were donated back to the company by Skarpelos. For them both it seems less about money more about winning this crucial battle.
I suspect that if the results are good there COULD be a secondary oversubscribed , in effect AVXLs IPO that would in juxtaposition to a private placement lead to significate share price appreciation.
I agree we will go it alone. You might not be a Tute but I grade you as more than astute!
Let's see what happens.
GO ANAVEX LIFE SCIENCES!
NON-ISSUE: PATENT EXP. REASON #8 AVXL MIGHT SOON HAVE A 15 BIL MCAP Skarpelos and Missling are laser focused on developing A2-73. With even a limited patent life the drug will be such a blockbuster that it will cause a geometric increase in market cap such that the company will have the capital to buy out other companies and become a behemoth. Gilead targeted a similarly hard target with HIV. GILD increased from $10 in 1999 to $100 recently with 5 forward splits that would equal share price increase $10 to $3200. This for which everyone said could not be done in an indication that affected 1% of the population. Soon, AVXL IF successful will eclipse all comparisons in larger and increasingly multiple indications. No amount of soft bashing regarding patents will affect the SEA CHANGE, the paradigm shift. One could reasonably expect an eventual Market Cap greater than GILD (133bil) and at least half of JNJ (333 Bil) by 2030 if this drug works and lives up to it's demonstrated promise. No amount of soft bashing around patent issues will change that. Leave the Patents to the company to handle. If they were solely in for the money they would have sold out already.
This involves a matter of destiny.
What I see of the retail that are heavily invested here: They are of good heart so I suspect they will be more focused on their philanthropy near the time of patent expiration. The people of ANAVEX MAY make a huge difference in the lives of others. Those invested for a long term MIGHT be able to do the same as a result of having funds greatly in excess of the needs of their families.
Something profound is about to happen, and it seems much more probable than not that A2-73 will be wildly successful all blatant lies and soft bashing aside. No more fear, no more uncertainty or doubt one should be all in or all out.
When this stock is $42 all the Instys and Tutes will recognize it is at least a 10 bagger from there.
Being invested now is a heavy heavy risk one should have a pure hearted reason to stay.
I am staying 100%. I intend this week to take all holdings and make unlimited non-deductable contributions to IRA then immediately make a Roth election (backdoor Roth) and pay the taxes now so, therefore, will not be hindered by taxes on money I give away in the future.
SEE THE BIG PICTURE!
GOD BLESS ALL YOU BIG HEARTED AND BRILLIANT PEOPLE AND GOD BLESS THE UNITED STATES.
GO ANAVEX LIFE SCIENCES
Seventhly, Anavex is still pursuing the A2-73 Plus patent which MIGHT be successful. Anavex has hired a very prominent Patent Attorney In House to protect Intellectual properties. We are in good hands.
Rest assured Dr. Missling is a very savvy Business Leader. He will have a very effective solution to the intellectual property, exclusivity, and marketing issues.
Go Anavex Life Sciences!
Good Luck to all and hold fast your shares.
NON-ISSUE: Generic competition for A2-73 after the 5-year exclusivity ANAVEX can easily address this issue: First, the generic formulation will need an FDA trial to prove it is non-inferior to the original. Secondly,the generic manufacturing will need FDA approval. Thirdly, costs of Anavex manufacturing will have dropped considerably so Anavex can drop the price significantly to stave off competition. Where the generic will have development cost baked in Anavex will have recouped those costs already. Fourthly, A3-71 MIGHT have approval by then and MIGHT be superior.
Fifthly, Anavex can licence the ORIGINAL to multiple Generic Drug Gorillas like TEVA and Dr. Reddy's who can manufacture and distribute cheaper than most any other Pharma Companies. Doing this a little while before expiration will also allow these Generic Gorillas to grab most all the Generic Market share before expiration thereby freezing out the competition, all the while collecting royalties and licencing fees worldwide on the Generics.
Sixthly, Anavex may choose to Licence out A2-73 from the start and be a fabless Pharma the same as Qualcomm is a fabless semiconductor company.
Rest assured Dr. Missling is a very savvy Business Leader. He will have a very effective solution to the exclusivity and marketing issues.
Go Anavex Life Sciences!
Good Luck to all and hold fast your shares.
Look at the 5-year weekly chart. Weekly Candle of September 28, 15 $1.20 +19% followed by Weekly Candle Oct.5, 15 +1.8 +22%. Now look at Weekly Candle June 27, 15 +$1.30 +22%. Weekly Candle July 2, 16 ??
Sept 28, 15 was a few weeks before a 2015 Conference, the same shorts were dogging AVXL then and they could not stop the Oct. 5, 15 Candle. What MIGHT next week or the week after's Candle look like?
Now look at the whole chart. $11 completes a massive multi-year "Cup with Handle Formation" Link to a 5-year weekly chart below. I got caught chasing this week and just lucked out the Our Race Horse Anavex took a breather so I could re-load the shares I lighted up because of by being conditioned by the choppy volatility.
Good Luck to All Loyal Longs!
Go Anavex!
http://www.barchart.com/my/chartbuilder/chart.php#jump
Yes the FTR is cool easy to read and gives a clear early signal. XENA you turned me on the FTR and it works extremely well on the Think or Swim Mobile platform. If fact TDA PC often has balances wrong while the mobile platform always instantly has the numbers right. Also very good charts.
Looked like a short attack today. Also looks like we broke its back. Someone stood in there with a bid at 7700 @ $5.65 to hold an important support level. Then there was a block trade @ 10000 share slapping the ask that broke the stalImate in favor of the longs. Got to love the 18000 block trade @ $5.89 at the bell. AVXL is looking very strong going forward from here. I was slapping asks all day not caring to much about the price just hitting it every 0.10 down from the opening bell I ended up increasing my position by 50% but my avg. was only 0.05 off the close. I was light about 25% of my position lightening up in the run-up for safety. My favorite thoughbreed Anavex was getting away from me so a picked up a few fast quarter horses to sprint after her. Ones that others thought lame so I picked them up and gave chase. First Regulu_ then Galen_ & Threshol_. It worked better than I could have dreamed. Not only did I catch back up to Anavex and put the saddle on her but still have the other three fast horses as well.
God Bless you for always telling the truth as you see it and shareing your valuable knowledge and experience with this group.
Many thanks to all the great posters on this board.
Go AVXL! Win the Big Stakes Race later this month.
Interday chart looks extremely strong coming off a bearish "Three Gap Up" candle pattern. It held and churned at the support level of the $5.60s after having retreated from the $6.04 resistance level. It has consolidated yesterdays massive gains and is now poised to run again. Holding that support level indicates the up trend is intact. The strongest thing going forward will be trading a new channel from $5.66 to $6.04 a few days to consolidate the gains from the past week.
Because of fundamentals and the looming Conference and Data shorts will more likely cover and go long rather than short. Look at the chart! Look at the indicators FTR is curling up from the bottom and RSI has reversed and heading North.
You are so right! Just like last night when you said $5.62 was an easy target. Was it ever! Keeping it in perspective where we sit now at $6.10 is $1.525 presplit where AVXL was trading last August before all of the rapid developments since. AVXL has been sat on, manipulated and marginalized. We should be much higher and never should have traded so cheap but for all the short sales and the short sellers dirty filthy tricks and sociopathic hit goons and lowlife self-loathing trolls. Right now today this company if it were sponsored the the Wall Street RICOs would have a market cap of well over 2 billion for the promise of it's pipeline. This is extremely disruptive technology to BP and poses a big threat to many BP projects and pipelines. BP would like to get ahold of AVXL pipeline to deep-six It. Skarpelos intended to bring this into the light that is why he did not sell out to BP early and instead donated 4 million shares back to the Company to get Missling the Terminator to develop the drugs and get them to the people.
You are so right all the upper targets are easy now. There were 3.4 million shares held short at last report about 10% of the float. They will need to be covered at some point. AVXL could hit $8 or $9 tomorrow. It could gap up again over $6.50 and run to $7.50 easy. Or those that have been controling the price may try to knive it down again but it will be fleeting. It will prove to be futile to try to hold it back from now on. Whatever, it does not matter because it is now a matter of destiny. Sooner rather than later AVXL will burst forth on the world stage.
Short sellers apocalypse ! Their only hope is to push it up way past $7.5 to collect on their long option call hedges @$7.5 strike.
Yes hold tight and make ready one's defenses. Tomorrow "They" MIGHT shake the tree. While it was a great day for stock price there was a poor interday performance. I watched start to finish. Bad Candle. Classic Hanging Man Candle. Could be trumped by Fundamentals but the shorts are many strong and trapped here. It gapped up and quickly driven down then recovered to form a doji with a very long tail down. We finished and started at a strong resistance level. A gap up tomorrow will be bad news technically because it will be pounced upon with fierce injustice. The way to slay a short attack is with sideways consolidation action. The very best thing right now is hold our ground between $5.00 and $5.25 and regroup or conslodate sideways. I fear the short attack tomottow as market takes a breather. Good time to set stinker bids and make ready the Broker Assisted Block Trade VWAP Bunker Busters. One should not let big bulwark artificial ask go unchallenged one can direct one's trade to the specific exchange of the spoof ask eg. EDGX ARCA etc. and make it "All or nothing" thereby trapping the spoof ask. (Feel your power as you disintegrate the VWAP Wall) One can do on one's own but better to pay the extra 20 bucks or so to make broker assisted. Another way to do it is hit the big bulwark fake ask mulitple times in quick succession with smaller trades of even as small as 100 again it will dissolve. it is like the video game that begins T Tetris.
Good luck to all longs. If you are doing the most sensible thing Just holding long then no worries just ignore day to day action.
IF IT GAPS UP AGAIN Then we need to hold the line at $5.23 or so .but anything above 4,78 is victory.
Be prepared. Go Anavex Life Sciences!
If Anavex is successful with A2-73 they will subsume all projects involving A2-73 either by employing them buying them or their intellectual property. Or crushing them or marginalizing them. On Ananex's way to becoming the Major Player that MIGHT be it's destiny. A3-71 is on the magnitude of a nuclear deterrent to another company spending alot on trying to get a piece of A2-73. All the best talent will be draw into Anavex all the most promising compounds and combos will be bought by Anavex.
Look at the history of Gilead. One should realize that Dr. MISSLING is as smart and tough as Donald Rumsfelt, I do not see "The Chris" as a future US Sec. of Defense but I can envision him as a Time Magazine Man of the Year. I have 100% faith in Christopher Missing Phd. and Tom Skarpelos who protected "the Pearl" and endeavored to bring it to light for the benefit of humanity rather than see it languish in the hands avaricious Big Pharma.
Impressive price action while most hit the dirt ANTH fought back and solid in the green with huge AH volume as well.
Ok I decided I trust you. I already did trust you but I will go fullly loaded but with back up
Extra boat
Frroll man I was selling at will at 4.59 4.58 with impunity.
So means I have cash hehe
The way it was explained to me those BULWAK ASKS are a balance of supply demand curve VWaP so if I repeatedly and I will
Slap ask!
One thing can we relax now make this a long term investment
I agree with both of you Gents. The Optimisim from management and the Science Advisors is great but means little to capital markets. What I want to see is IPMans little Red Headed Orphan grow up and go to WallStreet for a secondary IPO. All the speculator's of course want the quick buck. Sure get a big payday but a tax bill all in one year? Come on man! Here is where I speculate. Results too good to partner. Secondary IPO then becomes de rigour.
You guy's know so this so the following is for the howling speculators screaming dilution.
Secondary Offerings come in three flavors. Accretive Neutral and Dilutive. We have a 50 mil only mildly dilutive ATM at super favorable terms. So we do not need partner! Funds are hungry for AVXL 1.78 MIL SHARES 1st hour after hours trading between themselves. (they stopped right at 5pm look at the tape)
Cash is King and goes right to the book value bottom line. Take 100mil mulitipy by enterprise value factor on average 7x accretes 700 mil to market cap. Anyway that's how we will do it. Relax we have validation no need to be BP biatch.
Any BP that wants to Partner with AVXL must be subordinate, period!
Good Luck to you all and keep some cash.
I am selling $4.73 and buying $4.37 let us the loyal shareholders take control of the price action. Nothing attracts new money the same as steady predictable price action. Look at Xena's where she charts the fair market value trading zones. Below that is a steal in that range you are making a good buy. Above that if you sell of is a good thing because you can redeploy the cash to a lower price reduce your risk and support the price.
Of course tried and true is buy and hold and hold and hold.
If one believes.
I agree. To be a long term investor in an early stage biotech and to be successful one might want to have strict discipline to take a good measure off the table before a binary event like phase trial results. In case the results fail or are unimpressive OR THE MARKET SIMPLY TREATS THEM AS SUCH. Good results are often met with to put it gently "misplaced scepticism" when Involved with baby bios. I think sometimes it is actually better to wait until after the binary event to take a large position if one believes in the technology and management. If the market reacts poorly then one can get a boat load of in time should be developed. If the market goes wild bonkers if one is patient it will
return to earth and one would have less shares of a much less risky venture.
But on the subject of short positions that is a dangerous position to take. I trust you know what you are doing but others might draw the wrong conclusion from your somewhat glossed over comment. Just thought I would add a bit of caution to those that follow your always excellent and witty posts. The healthy short position is to have owned the stock and sold some into a parabola and want to buy back. Clay type traders are looking for fun gambling for profit it is not their investment just quick ordinary income and do not expect to build wealth. Shorting stock involves tying up funds for margin req. paying interest on the borrowed stock and unlimited risk. If one wanted to hedge a biotech INVESTMENT one could do it many less risky and effective ways. Number one as we both spoke in the beginning of our messages. 2. Option puts as insurance. 3. Inverse sector funds. So in effect one would favor AVXL against all other stocks in the Inverse Fund...this would have and still would work particularly well in recent and current general biotech downdraft since last August when Skerkeli famously price gouged and Hillary pounced for political capital.
It looks like they are not done buying After-hours I just had a stick big hit at 17:02 PM @ $4.73. I would pat myself on the back but maybe there is news I do not know so that rather I am being taken advantage of. But seriously I believe without much besides deductive reasoning that this volume is institution to institution or MM to MM to for Russell Investments, Inc to get the necessary shares for percent calculation Russell Investments needs for proper representation in it's INDEX FUND-the Russell3000. And all the "Me Too" ETFs that mimic the Russell3000
We should have had a bigger pop if not the WALL ( as IP_Man calls it)the HUGE ARTIFICIAL BULWARK ASKS @$4.60.
But now along comes Clay Trader and his cadre of retail shorts to try to bring it down Monday.
Do you watch the Level II as the action unfolds? If you watched today you would have seen what extremely strong resistance looks like or is caused by. You will be able to see the traces of it on the intra-day charts especially a tight bunching of 10 or 15 min candles @4.60 exactly. There were extremely large out of all proportion bulwark type asks exactly @$4.60. Why not $4.59 why not $.58 or any other price? Might it be that that was there for the convenience of any one who wanted to sell and thought they might be getting close to the high of the day and seeing those asks 50X normal size would figure they would never get chewed through and so would offer their sales for sale at $4.59 or $4.58? In other words an off ramp set up so that those that had been conditioned to take a little off the table on days like these would do so? And could do so repeatedly and with little skill or patience. Now as the little wheel on my phone was spinning for the 15 min before me message was sent those Bulwark Asks @$4.60 were chewed up and the price briefly hit $4.63 before immediately tanking. Now ask yourselves, did demand really chew up $4.60? Or was the "Bulwark Asks" or "Loading Ramp Asks" simply canceled because the buyer beneficiaries of said ramp were done buying? So we retail should not be patting ourselves on the back to much if we made sales in the high $4.50s we were clearly offered that chance by design. One had to see it to believe it. Russell 3000 Re-balance Day Indeed! But of course it is a fair and open market, there are is no Market Market Manipulation and there is no Favored Investor Class, such would be Conspiracy Theory! Do you know why detectives believe in conspiracies and look for them? Because the real Unicorn is co-incidence and detectives do not believe in Unicorns.
MM's to Retail Investors: "Thank you! Come Again!"
And of the newsletter touts and talking heads, I am certain they will make the most of the Brexit news to sell subscriptions or to get face time to pump their positions. They will still be churning Brexit long after most have put it in the past and moved on.
I like Marc Faber because he is funny and he thinks it is hilarious that people take what he says seriously. Watch one of his interviews he will usually always break into a chuckle at some point. He sells a newsletter Gloom Doom and Boom Report and tells people what they want to hear, therefore sells newsletters. Come on man! All these guys jobs are to sell subscriptions not be accurate or somehow clairvoyant.
Great Job with the Charts Tom very accurate at seeing possible pivit points. Right when I was finishing this not my big stinker got hit at $4.73 after hours. Russell 3000 or something is up huge after hours volume.
Tom why the doom and gloom? It is as if you are channelling Marc Faber. As a chartists you should be loving tjos. It os a thing of beauty especially on the 15 min candles. Banging 4.60 repeatedly where the big beasty bids are. If it breaks that we might find a new higher trading zone for the MM GAMES.
Agreed and to take it one step further. If the Charity that paid for the mouse study NOT PAY at least a very substaintial portion of the Phase 2, would not the supporters of that Charity righteously and indignantly ask, "What is the Charity doing with the money we send!"
The plot thickens. It would be a wild guess as to share price action. After loading my boat last week I sent for another boat. I can only wait to see if my yet lower stinkies get hit. I really do not care if share price is sub 4 or 6. I will load the boat same as I always do adding every week.
It is an interesting time but I refuse to over analyse instead I will stick to my guns which is to average in for accumulation over time.
In this for a very long time which effectively removes short term market risks.
Go Anavex Life Sciences
Absolutely you are right if we can get 60-80 mil in grarts or partnership then sure not need to do secondary. But one should note that the best companies do not sell themselves cheap but rather buy other companies. Case in point Gilead. It is better in long run for the company to raise money non dilutively in the capital markets. To put it crudely but illustratativly our little redhead does not need to be anyones bitch.
Thank you for your well thought out comments as always.
Might you have overlooked the bunker buster? A secondary offering in effect AVXLs IPO. This will be the only way to get significant institutional ownership. Done right it will not be dilutive but it will present a buying opportunity. Some will be disappointed namely flippers however while not providing a quick bonanza it MIGHT be the road to true wealth in the long term. Partner or sell out the "Pearl of Inestimable Value"? I think not.
As George Palmer says "Love you man!"
Yes I agree in that it was a very simplistic comparision. Also Chess is a game of strict rules where the stock market has rules but are not applied equally and equitably. And when broken enforced sporatically and inequitablely. There are certain players that as in life have certain advantages where chess is egalitarian. But there remains a number of moves that are possible in both so TA is valuable is discerning those possible moves. Not a predictor but rather a digression analysis.
The point I disagree on is that TA works better on well established blue chips. My experience is to the contrary. Manipulated small caps are much more predicable MM go for a target and are able to hit it. Tom123 lays these out very well and seems almost prescient. Go back and check his posts. It is eerie and uncanty for the simple reason that the stock is manipulated with those same targets in sight.
But I do not worry in times as these I just load the boats at every down step because I never know or try to guess short term movements.
Good luck and thank you for the thoughtful comments.
Those that question TA might not understand CHESS or the Art of War. The game is played in its purest as early with the most horses. Tom123 details a way one might add if one so choses? TA is much like possible chess moves.
This is our time we have this chance to add
Get it while the gettings is good!
Disclosure: I am super long AVXL!
Frrol as big time BULL! The guy I could never figure. Anyway why should one give a rats ass if $6 (1.50) or 3.60? (.90) Why give a rats ass really? Do you should you believe? As Georgeie so eloquently suggests. If you believe many things are possible but one needs to have a vision with vision all is possible.
For those that have not followed dear Froll's comments from the start this is a clear signal. Of the analytical and of sceptical one MIGHT want to listen to a heretofore quiet and measured voice . There are few that have a large position here that one might trust. I for one will tune into those that beleive as I in the long term viability of our Company.
Spoof asks can be ask slaped as I am sure you know. Broker assisted block trades of 10k. So we come to this. I already loaded my boat last two days. So I sent for another boat.
You have already engaged in this romance. But it may be the last chance for others.
Four Aces
RGLS FLYING UNDER RADAR. Biogen has disappointment in trial where RGLS supplied a biomaker assay BUT BIIB will continue testing the drug for sure because it was just P2 exploratory trial. The same day RGLS had fantastic news with 100% HVC viral suppresion on 4 week treatment combo Harvoni and plus 95% tested with the other drugs this was June 7 16 but the stock declines because of the BIIB news which will have no effect on RGLS what a nice buy points here.
Anacor's exema drug 5bil from PFE made the deal May 16. PFE raised 4.5 BIL MAY 15. NOW PFE raised 4.73 bil closed June 3.
To paraphase Dirty Harry "Pfizer is one of the most powerful BP on the planet and have the power to blow your shorty heads clean off are feeling lucky punks"
My point is, all histronics aside, CTIX MIGHT be supremely undervalued. I personally place more present value to Purisol than the other two combined. Of course my valuation means zip except to me as I am chronically early on bios.
If PFE places a 5bil value on toenail fugus and exema drug maker Anacor with negative earnings than what might be the real world value of CTIX all short interest and manipulation aside? When I saw CTIX dive on good Purisol trial data I was shocked but not surprised. This is not a fair and open stock market. So when I saw it hitting 1.33 I called my broker for a block trade to hit a spoof bid and we caught one at 1.46 then in a matter of minutes it was 1.64 or so. This is a fantastic Company with so much potential. And Purisol rather than the also ran status many subcribe to it MIGHT be a blockbuster. Were we sit right now is a good entry point and I have block trade triggers within .10 down. I will likely add more at this price over time as I like to average in to a position.
Roulette is the worst odds there is PFE has a 5 BIL BALL ON THE WHEEL one can only hope the ball falls on CTIX slot or another unfairly targeted company of dedicated scientists.
Good luck and God Bless all of you dedicated and faithful CTiXers I have read all your posts for over a year before I took a position on the obvious manipulation.
How long before the hands of faith and fate slap the face of doubt?
Stocks are not money more as a valuable position posed for the future. So do not be discouraged by fluctuations in value or missed opportunities to trade. Hold them
for a very long time, give them time to become wealth.
Go CTIX and all you brillant CTIXers.
I was not suggesting even a possibility that Pfizer raised the money for a deal with AVXL. Just that it is highly likely that PFE will make a 5 bil payment on some deal. On May 15, 2016 PFE closed a 4.5 bil bond sale "for general corp. Purposes" and then the next day bought Anacor for 5 bil. So logical assumption is they MIGHT have concluded negotiations on some deal or deals worth 4.73 bil or more prior to this latest bond sale. I do not even hope it is with Anavex. I think Anavex should raise capital by a secondary offering on the terms of an IPO, public secondary offering only after like you say all our cards are well known and established with the investing public. I oppose buyout and support partnership only on the most favorable terms.
That said there are other little orphans still sitting on the OTC with brazen unprotected short sellers that I would like to see PFE invest in. Theses issues are grossly undervalued even by their long investors and being OTC the short interests can not hedge the short positions with long call options.
While rare "blue sky tornados" do happen and when they do they can blow up short selling firms accounts causing a ripple effect as other short pisitions are force covered to quickly rectify the accounts. It is no secret which promising microbios are targeted by the same collection of short position firms.
I can think of one in particular that I would like to see do a deal with PFE and it is a more likely candidate as it's "pearl" is in the same speciality as Anacor's.
But as you say the BOD of PFE must be supremely convinced of value before a lauching a bid that causes a blue sky tornado type revaluation of any company or compound. The more overvalued and artifically low priced due to short interest the more likely such a dramatic move becomes.
Good luck with all these little talented orphan stocks. It will be interesting where PFE spends the 5 bil
I hope it is on one or more highly shorted OTC biotech. They seem to be highly undervalued in certain glaring instances.
God Bless and Good Luck to all the
Patient and Persistent early stage biotech investors.
June 3rd Phizer raises 4.73 Bil cash in aggregate by public offering of bonds. What does the current biotech merger and licencing landscape look like in the current depressed biotech market. Connecting the dots.
1) Phizer/Allergan merger collapses.
2) ALLERGAN licences Sigma1 drug from Heptares for eventual value of 3.2 bil.
3) Phizer necessarily knew of these negotiotions.
4) Some might argue A2-73 is further along in development and shows more promise than the Heptares drug.
5) Phizer raises
nearly 5bil cash across multiple bond shelves from 1.2% to 4.75%.
6) 4.75% is expensive money for a large corp with Phizer's credit rating.
7) One might believe that Phizer, facing patent cliffs, might be seeking partnership/licencing deals. Especially after the proposed AGN merger collapsed.
8) One might argue that it would be extremely unlikely that Phizer would have tapped it's highest priced by interest rate bond shelf if it did not need the all of the cash.
9) It might be assumed that Phizer will invest that money very soon on
one or multiple deals.
Whether buy outs or licencing/partnership deals.
10) No one besides Phizer executives and the executives of the company or companies that Phizer is in negotitions with should no anything about this.
11) It could be argued that the price terms have already been decided as, again, Phizer tapped the 4.75% bond shelf as well as all the cheaper ones.
For AVXL investors, one might ask themselves how long before the hands of faith and fate slap the face of doubt?
Go Avanvex Life Sciences and a hearty toast to all of her beautiful faithful.
Jazz tendered offer for junior clinical stage cancer biotech Celator Pharmaceuticals Inc for 2.2 Bil a 70% premium to previous market price. It has a drug in Ph 3 for Colo-rectal cancer. Many junior bio-techs seem to be very undervalued in this market. It has 42 mil shares outstanding. Do your own math but mine equates to a geometrically larger market cap for AVXL in a geometrically larger indication.
Do not blame George he is just early!
Hold on to your shares and move in the boats.
JMHO opinion.
Go Anavex Life Sciences
Tom thanks for sharing the beautiful story and thoughts. It was truly uplifting. I appreciated that you shared the story of the "messenger" many people would have feared to share that, thinking more about how they would be perceived rather that being a witness to something meaningful and profound that not many witness. As you might know these messengers do not announce who they are or from whence they came. No wings, more likely to arrive in a silver Volvo station wagon (older, not too expensive)ha ha. They might seem very thin but still healthy looking and are exceedingly kind and considerate. Some odd things might happen that seem too much of a coincidence but what one takes away from the conversation that makes one feel they have been visited by a "messenger" is that this person that one had a very easy and in depth conversation with on some very serious and dire topics and seemed to know everything about his subject he visited. Despite the seriousness and gravity of the message one might not have fear but rather hope and peace and a feeling that that there truly is some higher power that is among us. One might think, that was so weird and unearthly it must have been only a dream and never tell anyone. Tom, thanks for sharing.
I think your Mom's 100th year deserves a song!
The always witty IP_man. I could not wait to get that out of my system as well. Would not imagine peeps would be dumping shares on that "piece"
The odds of faith in the face of doubt. When one considers the potential of Avanex Life Sciences one might realize that up to this point any shares accumulated were positioned well even if bought at $14.87.
Being too early to a development stage company of any sort can trap capital that is then often further besieged by dilution of share count, this is a known and accepted risk in these issues especially biotech.
So how should one calculate the risks? Science and Management. A successful technology company needs both. Gilead Sciences was created on the vision of one man but that man was successful in that he recruited heavy weights of both science and management. George P. Shultz American Statesman and economist has been a director from way back. Donald Rumsfeld was a director and then CEO during GILD development stage until he was named U.S. Secretary of Defense.
Anavex Life Sciences was created on the vision of
Athanasios Skarpelos.
He recognized the "Pearl of Inestimable Value" developed by Dr.V a fellow Greek. (hey whats up with you crazy Greeks should you not fade into History?)
Then he recruited Christopher Missling Phd. Does he have the skills of a man like Shultz or Rumsfelt? When one considers the way he has advanced the Company and created the excellent board of scientists and research development it begs the comparison to Eisenhower.
The odds of faith in the face of doubt!
We will not be bought out but we will ask for and receive unconditional surrender of all that stand in the way of bringing our compounds to market.
Watch for the next new Director. He/She might come from Lockheed or Boeing. Anavex Life Sciences is aligned with the interest of peace and prosperity, we will need deep governmental connections that a defense contractor can provide.
There comes a time that all current investors will be early, and swinging will be surrender. Everyone in this stock now holds it back. Stop that! So you so sad not sell $14 and buy $3.17? $crew that. In the end $14,87 very cheap if one believes that C. Missling is aligned with you, ask yourself !!
SO MY AWARD GOES TO GEORGE!!!!!
Take a BOW George you deserve it!(oh I should say god damn it I am not smarter because I use perfect English it is rather a point of pride as I am under-educated and know no other)
One should ask themselves as my good Menonite Friends ask, what will you do with the moneY?
Some believers her just get even. Faith and deliverance you will be ok.
We will survive "Cris" is like a Washington or Eisenhower type guy.
The Odds of Faith in the Face of Doubt~~ ! i LOVE ALL YOU
THE TRADE SHRARES MAKE THEM ZERO OUR GOAL IS BUY AT ALL
"I is what I is and I am what I am but I do what I do 1000%" Is that "Popeye" or the synergistic effect of simultaneous regulation by A2-73 on the Sigma One and Muscarinic acetylcholine receptors of the neuron endoplasmic reticulum?
It will not come from spinach, maple syrup, cilantro and the even the best and purest fresh sardines.
It is a drug in a class of drugs pioneered by one small company that thinks differently and has no fear! (Popeye knows not fear!)
One might make some child's allowance trading on FUD and Fear but those will never be part of something big and of great benefit to humanity because, sadly those think small and are struck through with fear of their own worthlessness and meaninglessness.
Eyes will be opened soon! Wait for the Eye Popping results.
I venture to say everyone is wrong about when Popeye will appear. He will come as soon as he is ready. He is what he is and he am what he am. He comes when he comes and comes when he can. He will wait for no one not even his Great Uncle Sam.
I would never presume to tell anyone how to trade. Ha Ha I do not trade I am buying every chance I get. I did just what I said last week and bought at every step down. This week I will buy every step up or down. This is our time! Maybe better to buy down steps but up steps just feel better. In the end they all equal out for long term holders.
God Bless and be true!
Bring up the Boats!
What is the main characteristics of successful INVESTORS?
They find good Companies they believe in and hold for very long time frames. Warren Buffet and the next door millionaires do not think of Good Companies stocks as money, rather as real estate that they put their own value on. They do not listen or care how the fickle market values their stock holding on any given month or year. They buy companies that they believe in and do not do so to get rich.
Many of these next door millionaires worked for good companies and accumulated the stock of the company over many years. But they never thought of it as money, just a long term investment in what they knew and believed in.
Very few stocks are like NKE and go straight up for years. GILD and REGN did not make quick dramatic "get rich quick" moves. JNJ has been around since the American Civil War. PG will not go out of business nor will IBM or GE.
Is AVXL a worthwhile INVESTMENT? Can AVXL survive on her own for 5, 10 or 25 years?
Take a look at the 25 year chart of BOEING and ask yourselves was Boeing ever at risk of going out of business? Would people stop flying? Would the order backlog just dry up? Look at the chart and be prepared for a shock. The volatility of AVXL is nothing compared to some of the best companies that have been around a hundred years and will be around for another hundred years. Go ahead LOOK! Also look at 25 year on GILD REGN CELG JAZZ you name it. (except NIKE haha)
Then as CBD says PERSPECTIVE! Stock is not money stop thinking it is. Stock in great companies is, if held for a very long time, wealth!
Oh for the Motley Fools fans do not forget to plug in the symbols MSFT & CSCO the top MF picks in 1999. Now the history revisionist $astards, will only remind you they recommended(mildly at the time) AMZN.
For perspective here is 25 years BA. Plug in ALL of your favorites, let us gain perspective.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=BA&style=technical&template=&p=MO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=0&t=HLWCDL&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
DISCLOSURE: I am long AVXL, BA and all you Brilliant POSTERS! I may take positions in others. I have not been compensated nor could I be compensated in any currency save GOODNESS, SWEETNESS and LIGHT!
Bring up the Boats, have them at the ready.
GO Anavex Life Sciences!