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"OB - might you consider returning to the pharm?"
Flo, my friend-
To use an analogy: there's a cab on a streetful of cabs. You've been in that cab for a year as the inept driver veered around erratically - causing accidents, smashing into things, damaging people and property- all the time hanging on for dear life in extreme terror. You finally manage to escape bruised, battered and traumatized but with your life.
Here comes that particular cab and driver around the block again: you plan on jumping in?
Jessellivermore: Just some good-natured kidding with this, I sincerely wish you and the other fine folks here the best of luck!
"I don't agree with the broad brush of republicans."
PGS- I was not painting with a broad brush. Notice I said that the No-Nothing party morphed into a wing of the Republican party. They did not become the whole party, just a part of it, that's an historical fact. Also, many of their beliefs can easily be traced to currently-held beliefs of some, not all, far right-wing Republicans.
As I'm sure you know, many middle-of-the-road Republicans- those that can discuss and reason calmly and logically- still use the term today as a pejorative for the less enlightened fringe of their own party.
"Let's blame all our woes on the poor illegal alien."
For many it's all about placing blame. They seem to be fanatically devoted to that pastime, continually looking for every miniscule and meaningless detail from every bizarre source possible in order to place blame for the past, the present, and even the future. That is their total agenda, absolutely nothing more to it.
In the middle of the 19th century there was a short-lived political group called "The Know Nothing Movement." This is true, they even called themselves that! At its center was an irrational, hate-filled fear that our "pure" nation was being overrun by Irish Catholic immigrants. These "micks" were supposedly physically dirty, illbred, disease-ridden anarchists who hated the U.S. and were only coming over to steal our jobs and rape our women. Oh, and by the way, they were all doing this on the orders of the Pope!
The No-Nothings eventually morphed into a wing of the Republican party. Looks like they are morphing back again.
" Note that the author uses "fair value" and "market value" interchangeably..."
Grandpatb & Medchal-
Actually, the loan,appraisal and real estate industry uses as a standard the term "Fair Market Value": in an arm's length transaction what a willing buyer will give a willing seller at a given point in time. Many professionals shorten it to either "fair value" or "market value" and it's understood that the two are synonymous. However, I can see how this might be confusing!
Nationalization is the big bogeyman that bank shareholders worry about. That's probably not going to happen, but the following excerpt is definite:
Treasury officials said the new support will be provided through the government's purchase of preferred shares of the banks' stock that are convertible into common shares at a 10 percent discount to their price before Feb. 9.
The preferred shares will carry a 9 percent dividend and be convertible at the bank's option, subject to regulatory approval. They will automatically convert in 7 years.
If the bank needs this support, it means stock dilution either sooner or later. That's the real problem! Hopefully 5/3 does not need this support.
Nationalization is the big bogeyman that bank shareholders worry about. That's probably not going to happen, but the following excerpt is definite:
Treasury officials said the new support will be provided through the government's purchase of preferred shares of the banks' stock that are convertible into common shares at a 10 percent discount to their price before Feb. 9.
The preferred shares will carry a 9 percent dividend and be convertible at the bank's option, subject to regulatory approval. They will automatically convert in 7 years.
If the bank needs this support, it means stock dilution either sooner or later. That's the real problem.
Just got back to my computer:
Good day, to say the least!
I had to laugh at some of the posts asking to "explain" what's going on with this stock, or wondering if there was a buyout! A buyout!?!?
It's a major regional bank in fairly good condition- considering what's going on in our whole society- that's been dragged down with the rest of the sector but is now on its way to regaining a normal valuation. Lot's of upside left, GLTA.
Almost 1 million shares traded AH, including 280k at 1.45. IMO, $6-$8 PPS by June is not unreasonable.
...the dogg jones will be over 8000...
Bernanke was just saying this morning that he's tired of being hounded by questions about the Dog Jones average.
I could be wrong but I could be right!
Nothing like going out on a limb.
"It's hard to understand the sudden concern over "stress testing"."
Just as an example, I bank with and own stock in Fifth Third (FITB), one of our regional big boys. I was talking to a branch manager on Friday. She says that they have all their numbers ready and are super-confident that they'll pass any stress test with flying colors. As a matter of fact, they want the test to be applied with as much media hoopla as possible. They already have their PR people working on a full-page newspaper ad that basically will say: WE PASSED THE TEST!
I think many community banks and regional banks feel the same.
RE: Cemex-
I used to have a lot of it but sold.
Two big problems: first, growth in their home country of Mexico is problematical due to a continued reluctance from foreign investors to pour money into what many still consider a "Narco-Democracy." If Mexico could get its house in order, Cemex would strongly benefit.
Second, they're having trouble taking advantage of the building boom in China because of what's been described as "pricing issues." I think this means that China would prefer to continue to use cheaper,substandard concrete in all their structures!
This said, I agree that it looks attractive at these levels.
OT: Now on CNBC, Bernanke talking to congressional hearing:
Many senators asking, in one way or another, if the "stress test" of banks is going to involve asking the banks about their balance sheets and then just believing what they say. LOL.
Bernanke saying absolutely not!
It's the "inherited the mess" part that many people seem to be conveniently overlooking.
FWIW: I added this morning at 1.20-1.22. Best of luck to all.
Absolutely correct, thanks for the post. There's a large amount of people out there that are looking for any excuse to bash the current administration. Give them a chance!
"I'd like to read something that actually researches the issue rather than a report using an anecdotal example to go off on a rant."
PGS- There you go again, setting the intelligent discourse bar incredibly high. You mean anecdotes are not evidence? Rants are not civilized discussions? But...but...that would leave some people with nothing to say! Just not fair.
"Possibly evidence for my view that BP pipeline candidate go-forward decisions are not a whole lot freer of 'what the heck else have we got and what'll we tell the Street?' considerations than those of small biotechs."
My point exactly. Does this mean that large companies- BP, auto makers, brokerages, banks- make bad decisions? I'm shocked.
Pfizer drops development of 2 late-stage drugs
By LINDA A. JOHNSON – 35 minutes ago
IMO: We're going to see a lot more of this as companies have to pull their belts in even tighter. What puzzles me: if they give as a reason for the halt that the drugs don't meet an unmet medical need, didn't they know this before they started the whole program?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5itG_YAKPEExs3Jz2VRhpeb5DgV1wD96HVEM80
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — Pfizer Inc. said Tuesday it is ending development of two medicines that had been in final human testing in order to shift funding to other experimental drugs with more potential.
The world's biggest drugmaker said it decided to halt further testing of compounds to treat fibromyalgia and generalized anxiety disorder after reviewing its existing and experimental primary-care drugs.
"They're not products that really meet an unmet medical need," spokeswoman Kristen Neese told The Associated Press. "We'd rather devote our resources to other areas."
Neither compound had been seen as a likely blockbuster because other drugs to treat those conditions already are on the market.
However, drug companies generally spend hundreds of millions of dollars by the time a drug reaches final human testing, and Pfizer needs every new drug it can get. Its cholesterol treatment Lipitor, the world's top-selling drug with nearly $13 billion in global annual sales — more than one-the fourth of Pfizer's total revenues — is expected to lose patent protection in November 2011.
To address that problem, New York-based Pfizer plans to diversify its product and research portfolios by buying rival drugmaker Wyeth, which is a leader in vaccines, consumer health products and biotech drugs, along with traditional pills. Wyeth, of Madison, N.J., also has state-of-the-art technology for manufacturing complex biotech drugs, which are produced in living cells.
The cash, debt and stock deal, originally valued at $68 billion, has dropped somewhat in value as the price of Pfizer shares have fallen since the deal was announced on Jan. 16.
Pfizer's compound for fibromyalgia, a poorly understood pain-and-fatigue ailment, was known by the chemical name esreboxetine. The treatment for the psychiatric condition generalized anxiety disorder was known only by the designation PD 332,334.
Pfizer said it reviewed results from the first late-stage study for PD 332,334 and all the data for esreboxetine, "along with current market dynamics," before making the decision.
"While confident in the safety of these compounds, we don't believe that they provide significant benefit over other therapies" on the market, Pedro Lichtinger, president and general manager of Pfizer's Primary Care Business Unit said in a statement.
Pfizer's own Lyrica, originally approved for epileptic seizures, became the first drug approved for fibromyalgia in the U.S. in June 2007. Then rival Eli Lilly & Co.'s Cymbalta, an antidepressant, won U.S. approval as a treatment for fibromyalgia in June 2008, and Forest Laboratories Inc. and Cypress Bioscience Inc. received approval for their drug Savella in January.
Cymbalta was approved to treat generalized anxiety disorder two years ago. Other psychiatric drugs, while not specifically approved for generalized anxiety disorder, also are used to treat it.
Pfizer said it will continue to pursue approval for using Lyrica to treat generalized anxiety disorder, a chronic condition with symptoms including persistent anxiety, exaggerated worry and tension that impairs daily function.
"Our goal is to use our resources efficiently and effectively to continue to deliver medical innovations," Lichtinger said.
To boost its research productivity, Pfizer last fall narrowed the number of diseases on which it is doing new research and set up units focused on a single therapy area. Each has its own chief scientific officer, who decides which experimental compounds advance into risky and expensive human testing.
Pfizer said it is notifying all doctors and other staff participating in patient testing of the two canceled drugs to determine "the best course of action for their patients."
As I said the other day, I've been buying steadily the past week.
Just wondering: I'm planning on buying a bit more today on any dips. I haven't had time to watch this as far as intraday timing goes. Has anyone noticed any patterns? TIA.
"Many years ago my mother told me a good way
to tell if your going wrong is to watch what the
crowed is doing. She said if 95% of the world
thinks the world is flat, then it is flat. She said if
you follow that advice you will be right 99.99%
of the time and that’s good enough for her"
OKY- May I hazard a guess that Mom was not a Professor of Epistemology at Harvard?
...they have to come up with lots of miljons by june.
Yep. It starts with miljons, then biljons, then triljons, then pretty soon it's just out of control.
Instead of wasting the money on that sex change you were planning, why not opt for the lebodomy.
I believe that's when they remove your leb.
He said that we were all cowards on matter of race because we would not openly admit to and work towards eliminating racism. He is of course correct. So you are deliberately misquoting and taking the misquote out of context.
"Not a friggin peep"???? What newspapers, magazines, television and radio stations, and internet sites do you keep track of? So you are deliberately stating a patent falsehood.
jbog- you seem unable to write a single post without some form of deliberate, exaggerated, illogical attack often involving name-calling. I mean it's post after post after post. Very disappointing.
jbog: Agreed, some of his accounting methods are to say the least "creative." Unfortunately, hyperbole has become one of our standard coins of the realm and it's almost impossible to exchange information without it.
However, in his writing and speaking during the past few years the Nobel Prize-winning Stiglitz has been careful to point out that he is not using the term cost strictly as an accountant might use it (at least my CPA has no column to record Cost In Lives.)
With that in mind, I think it's a good thing to get people thinking whether or not these types of misadventures are free. To talk about future costs to our society as far as caring for returning veterans is perfectly legitimate.
Stiglitz has been speaking and writing about the "real cost" of the Iraq war for years and of course causing quite a bit of debate. That's because the term itself is so nebulous, not to mention the difficulty of actually calculating a number. When this book is published, expect to see him on all the news and talk shows. I'm hoping that the publicity will cause many average Americans to take another look, especially in this economic climate, at how much these little overseas adventures cost us.
Thursday, February 21, 2008 at 6:35 pm
The real cost of the Iraq war
Posted by Barbara Kiviat
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2008/02/21/the_real_cost_of_the_iraq_war/
The Nobel-Prize-winning economist Joe Stiglitz, who is a professor up at Columbia University, swung by the office this morning for a meet-and-greet. Noble-Prize-winning... must be a nice way to be introduced.
Stiglitz was here to promote his soon-to-be-published book on the true cost of the Iraq war, which he and Linda Bilmes of Harvard University put at $3 trillion. This is a little bit higher than what some other people have said in the past. In fact, it's nearly a trillion dollars more than what Stiglitz and Bilmes themselves were saying not much more than a year ago.
The figure is so big because Stiglitz and Bilmes don't just count operating costs – like the $12.5 billion a month is takes to run the war on the ground – but long-term expenditures, too. They tally up things like how much money the government will have to spend taking care of disabled veterans, what the war has done to the price of oil, and the cost of replacing military equipment that is wearing out much faster than it would have otherwise.
It's kind of gloomy stuff. But the biggest shock is how hard it was for Stiglitz and Bilmes to find and get access to all the data, considering that war is a taxpayer expense. The two academics have been filing Freedom of Information Act requests for years.
My guess is that you'll start reading more about all of this in the op-ed pages in about a week, when the book comes out. In the meantime, if you want an eight-page overview that's a little dated, but will still make it sound like you've read the book, check out the paper Stiglitz and Bilmes wrote in the Milken Institute Review in 2006. You can find it here, as a PDF.
"I've been reading about the upcoming bank stress test. Does anyone know about this and is there any estimate where 5/3 might be on the test results?"
Purdue-
Here's an excerpt from a Time Magazine article:
"In theory, a financial stress test looks at a firm's loans, assesses which will go bad and then concludes whether the bank will have money left when those accounts go unpaid. Pretty clear.
But in reality, to run the test, you have to guess not just which borrowers will stop paying but also when. Some losses will be covered by profits elsewhere. So the firm's bottom line must be estimated. The variables leave plenty of room for the government to make some banks look better or worse, depending on the assumptions it makes."
If this isn't "cloudy" enought, the actual metrics for the test won't be released for another month (one suspects because the government does not know them yet!) and after the "test" is given, the results will not be made public.
Good board, I didn't realize that it was here until yesterday!
I live in Columbus, OH, and actually bank with Fifth Third. I've been accumulating shares very heavily all last week, culminating in some big purchases on Friday.
I have no precise knowledge (like everyone else!) of exactly where the PPS will be when all the dust clears. But I am expecting a very easy triple from these levels.
Best of luck to all here.
"... how quickly... $10,000 turns into a million at that 12% rate."
My first real business mentor- my dad- had a little schpiel(one of his many thousands!) about that idea.
He was always laughing at the guys who were perpetually chasing the one, big, million-dollar deal-of-a-lifetime. His idea was to do numerous smaller deals in the same timespan. Just put your head down and work as hard as you can on one $10K deal. Then do another. Then another. And another. In a few years you might have that million; the other guy will still be chasing the one big deal!
I find that investors parallel this situation exactly.
"... the vowel renewal thing?"
It's something that's done between consonant adults.
RE: Guantanamo-
I read a blog last week that had a suggestion I'd agree with 100%:
Keep Gitmo open and send every single lying, stealing, self-serving, over-compensated corporate exec there!
Well, that's one concept of The Corporate Ladder.
Here's another, meant with good humor:
Part 1:
An organization is like a tree full of monkeys : all on different levels, some climbing up. The monkeys on top look down and see a tree full of smiling faces. The monkeys on the bottom look up and see nothing but assholes.
Part 2:
All the time, the monkeys on the top will get the fruits first, and most of the time, they will eventually produce SHIT for all the monkeys below. And all the time, that's what the monkeys below will get.
Part 3:
For those monkeys who are climbing up, they have to first kiss plenty of asses in order to move up. How high they climb will depend on how good they kiss. And always if a monkey does not kiss any ass, his ass will get KICKED !!!
Part 4:
During times of great difficulties and hardship, the monkeys on the top may fall a few branches down and hit the monkeys below. The monkeys below will be fallen upon and eventually some will fall off the tree (termination, layoff, workforce reduction, downsizing, cutback, retrenchment, blah blah blah).
As compensation these monkeys that fell off get to keep the fruits that were shaken off the tree during the commotion. The tree becomes lighter and life slowly returns to normal.
And that, my friend, is the corporate lifestyle.
"Decades ago, Warren Buffett was quoted as saying his goal every year was to outperform the DOW by 50%"
In last year's widely-circulated letter to shareholders, he made his famous "wonderful century" remark about the Dow when talking about investor expectations for the future:
“How realistic is this expectation? Let’s revisit some data I mentioned two years ago: During the 20th Century, the Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497. This gain, though it appears huge, shrinks to 5.3% when compounded annually. An investor who owned the Dow throughout the century would also have received generous dividends for much of the period, but only about 2% or so in the final years. It was a wonderful century.”
I think that many, if not most investors have come to look at a 5.3% annual gain has merely OK, if that. I know that I have. Warren goes on to say that maybe we ought to rein-in our expectations a bit for the future:
“Think now about this century. For investors to merely match that 5.3% market-value gain, the Dow - recently below 13,000 would need to close at about 2,000,000 on December 31, 2099. We are now eight years into this century, and we have racked up less than 2,000 of the 1,988,000 Dow points the market needed to travel in this hundred years to equal the 5.3% of the last.”
"the Dow recently below 13,000" - don't we wish!
Looking at what's been happening recently, I don't think we're gonna' make it to Dow Two Million.
In his letter he continued on:
“I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities during this century - envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends and 8% from price appreciation - are implicitly forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about doubledigit returns from equities, explain this math to him - not that it will faze him. Many helpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen in Alice in Wonderland, who said: “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Beware the glib helper who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees.”
"Maybe Obama should not send the 17,000 he promised and pull 13,000 out instead?"
Exactly!
I... believe what I believe and can't disengage from
what I believe in because of others beliefs.
Good for Zen monks, not so good for stock investors.
FWIW: All week, including today, I've been very heavily buying shares of Fifth Third Bank (FITB). It's where I personally bank and one of our regional big names. No way it's going to stay at these levels, IMHO.
Sheff- Excellent, well-managed board here!
I'm very concerned that President Obama is now making what will turn out to be the greatest mistake of his time in office. No, it's not the stimulus bill! It's Afghanistan.
First, here's a link to an AP interview with the last Russian general in command during their debacle:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i73mNsQMM_3yK0GROE5rBL2_rQKgD96AP07G0
Please read the whole article if you've got time, but here's the most relevant part:
Last Russian general warns US on Afghanistan-
MOSCOW (AP) — Twenty years after Red Army troops pulled out of Afghanistan, the last general to command them says the Soviets' devastating experience is a dismal omen for U.S. plans to build up troops there.
On Friday, the anniversary of the Soviet departure from the Afghan capital, the Russian parliament's lower house adopted a resolution honoring the soldiers who "were faithful to the warrior's duty, who displayed heroism, bravery and patriotism."
In retired Gen. Boris Gromov's view, the valor was shown in an unwinnable battle.
"Afghanistan taught us an invaluable lesson ... It has been and always will be impossible to solve political problems using force," said Gromov, the last soldier to leave Afghanistan two days after the Kabul pullout.
He told reporters that U.S. plans to send thousands of new troops to Afghanistan would make no difference against a resurgent Taliban, who came to power in 1996 in the chaos after the Soviet withdrawal.
"One can increase the forces or not — it won't lead to anything but a negative result," Gromov said.
By the way, I hope that no one is laboring under the delusion that the Soviet military of the 70's & 80's was an unsophisticated or poorly-equipped force. They had everything, every modern bell & whistle, they put it all to use, they were fighting almost next door and had excellent combat service support (please look at a map! See where the Russians were, see where we are, get the picture?) and they still got their asses kicked.
I apologize for laying it on with a superlong post (I realize that zippy one-line insults are more easily digested) but here's one more article. I'm also just going to mention this morning's AP story regarding Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who says that there is significant risk that the U.S. military could not respond quickly and fully to any new crisis. It's easily available on line.
"We want them to be like us. That is not going to happen."
February 07, 2009
Why Are We In Afghanistan?
By Richard Reeves
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/02/why_are_we_in_afghanistan.html
NEW YORK -- Twenty-five years ago, when more than 100,000 soldiers of the Red Army were trying to gain control of Afghanistan, I spent most of a day at the Afghan Surgical Hospital on the Pakistan side of the Khyber Pass, listening to stories about Soviet atrocities.
The place was run, probably with American money, by the most fundamentalist of Pakistan's many religious parties, Jamaat-i-Islami, the spiritual (and often literal) fathers of the Taliban. I wrote this at the time:
"I was not allowed to leave without going from bed to bed. Forty beds. At each one, stumps of arms or legs would be thrust at me, or dressings would be lifted away to show a red hole that had been a face. A young man, what was left of him, held my eyes with his until I cried as the blankets were pulled from his wasting body, most of it scar tissue from burns. ... An older man named Abdul Kareem, who said he was a farmer at a place called Baghlan, north of Kabul, proudly showed me the foot-long stumps of his legs."
"Abdul Kareem said, through a translator, that a Russian had thrown a grenade into his house and killed three of his children. "'How do you know it was a Russian?'" I asked.
"'I know Russians,' he said. 'They have red faces. They look like monkeys.'
"The maimed men around me burst into laughter. They were broken only in body -- and many of their bodies were being patched up so they could fight another day."
Someone else said something and they laughed again. I didn't need a translator to know what he had said. "They look like you!"
Most of the fighters I talked with there and in travels through the tribal lands on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border saw little difference between Russians and Americans, except at that time we were paying them to kill Russians. Communists, democrats, we all represented modernity to them. We wanted to give them -- or force on them -- new laws, new freedoms, a new culture. Most of all, both communists and democrats wanted to educate women.
We want them to be like us. That is not going to happen.
They beat the Soviets, as they beat the British of Kipling's time, the time he wrote "A Soldier of the Queen," ending:
"When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
"And the women come out to cut up what remains,
"Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
"An' go to your Gawd like a soldier."
And they will defeat us. They have been there for centuries, and they will be there for centuries more. They have no place else to go. We do and we will. As early as 2006, Field Marshal Sir Peter Inge, the former head of Great Britain's armed forces, warned his country and countrymen that they were risking another defeat in Afghanistan, which is more a name than a nation.
Which brings me to President Obama's warnings and pledges about winning in Afghanistan. He had to sound tough about something after he courageously and correctly opposed our invasion of Iraq. That's how American politics works. And American presidents, the good ones, change their focus and strategies as times and events redirect them. Now he is running the government, and he should break those promises, the sooner the better, before more of our men -- and the men of our NATO allies -- are left on Afghanistan's plains.
"We did not finish the job against al-Qaida in Afghanistan. We did not develop new capabilities to defeat a new enemy, or launch a comprehensive strategy to dry up the terrorists' base of support," Obama said during the campaign. We tried but failed. That's too bad, but the growth of terrorism and a multiplication of terrorist havens have made the job more complex and Afghanistan irrelevant.
We have been on the plains and in the mountains for seven years now, almost as long as the Soviets were there. We went to punish Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida for the bombing of the World Trade Center -- and we have certainly had some success diminishing that organization, even as others are arising, some because we are engaged in that part of the world. It is worth remembering that bin Laden and his people are not Afghans; they are Saudi Arabians and Egyptians.
So the relevant questions now are: Who are we fighting? Why?
Copyright 2009, Universal Press Syndicate Inc.
I am a rook so just posting what i see.
He means that he's just a piece in the chess game of life???
Was it Hillary going after Bill or Bill going after Hillary?
That's what I'd like to know!