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I'm changing my expected FDA approval date. A while back I posted that I expect it possibly in May of 2013. Let's change that to June 2014. I just found this out recently and was sort of annoyed, but there isn't anything we can do about it. This is one of the articles indicating results in mid 2013, so you know my original expectation wasn't baseless. http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/05/09/avita-medical-a-solid-biomedical-play/
Why the hold up? Avita has had trouble recruiting people for their trial and were at around 80% recruitment last month. The difficulty is in order to be admitted into the trial they need 2 people to have a very similar burn. I'm assuming this means size, location, style, cause ect. 1 person gets traditional treatment and the other gets Re-Cell. The whole study per pair takes 1 year. Meaning it will be about a year from the time they 100% recruitment.
I sold 25% of my shares when it hit $3 recently. I'll buy them back plus the difference in the $2.40's. With this prolonged time between FDA approval there should be plenty of time to get more cheap shares. The "smart" money won't start moving in until around 6 months before the FDA results come in. In a way I am somewhat relieved because I only have about 50% of the position in Avita that I want.
Yahoo shutting down the message boards.
http://www.slashgear.com/yahoo-preparing-to-shut-down-7-services-02272248/
I'm going to take a position on Monday. Unreal that it is this cheap despite the shitty management they have. Looks like Molycorp's chart, only a much better buy.
Cowen is large investment banking firm, this will be very good exposure for little Prana.
Company is on the up and up. I've been into it over a year and have found that an unusual amount of smart/science oriented people own the stock. Yahoo message boards are where all the good info is (surprisingly).
Do you post on the PRAN board on Yahoo by chance?
Anyone looking for daily conversation about Avita Medical go to www.HotCopper.com.au/
NB is the symbol on the periodic table for Niobium.
That's ok, the trend is there. Pretty much no shorting at all. It would be unwise to short this.
The cusip number change can be exciting sometimes.
I own shares of ARNA, which got an unexpected FDA approval over the summer. Wall Street is short something like 50 million shares at an average price of $3 (stock is $8-10) I keep hoping they change their cusip #. It would create an epic short squeeze.
US stays the same, Canada changes to NB.
Does anyone know if there is short interest in this stock? When you change Cussip numbers it forces every short to cover.
Posting about sources on a public message board, let alone one the company probably follows, is not smart.
Double post.
??? "trading in the shares of NioCorp Developments Ltd will commence on the TSX Venture Exchange under the trading symbol “NB”."
That is not our Goetz.
I wouldn't bring them up here proto.
It's not any harder for bashers to make an Ihub account and so far this board has gone untouched. If someone has email alerts set up to pick up words or phases, like I and many others do for their stocks, your post might get picked up by the screen of someone you don't want posting here.
That was news to buy on yesterday.
In my opinion we wouldn't have gotten that PR if they weren't confident they'll have good results. Tom is consistently updating us on the last day of the month every other month. That is a pattern I could get use to. March will be exciting for sure.
Something similar happened in Wilmington Delaware last year when like 1000 people showed up to fill 20 section 8 housing slots.
Yay a dividend.
.04 per share, better set up a drip to lower my cost basis. That won't help the $8,000 I'm negative but it's a nice gesture.
http://afr.com/p/technology/vocus_declares_initial_dividend_GXjcvV97ndLGSH1lWpuukK
I wasn't here for all of it but I've read all the old PR's. Marcelli went too far making speculation seem like fact only to offer no explanation when it didn't materialize. Aside from showing poor judgement it's not exactly legal. If Lightwave goes bust I wouldn't be surprised to see some people lawyering up.
Great question.
I could argue that from both sides with all the variables involved.
You could blame it on both past and present management not having the correct skill set needed to pull off getting the funding. Running a company is one thing, but getting Fortune 100 companies genuinely interested in your science to the point that they want to write you a check takes a special kind of charisma when you have something still in development.
I heard Marcelli isn't a very good speaker. Picture him nervously umming and ahhing talking to people from IBM, that won't get you a few million for R&D.
Lightwave makes no effort to attract new shareholders so it's possible same mentality is applied towards creating interest on other fronts. The LSS has been in the background for 2-3 years right? Maybe Lightwave is content with that. Or they're afraid to rock the boat by reaching out to other companies. The LSS they're working may have been the only company that didn't say "that's nice, come back when it works."
On the flip side perhaps getting funding required transparency and outside involvement that Lightwave wasn't comfortable with at the time. Even now we still don't know if they've filed a provisional patent for indigo. I'm sure they wouldn't want people from Intel in the lab watching over their investment if the IP wasn't secure.
Thanks RJ!
No, nor his exact salary, or how much expenses we incur flying him back and forth on a regular basis. I am curious though.
Don't forget the hundreds of thousands of free shares he has.
If the LSS does want our patents after testing they should act quickly. The longer they wait the more likely LWLG is to add #2,3,4,5,6,7 and increase the valuation that would be factored into a buyout.
I meant as a combination where they all don't work out.
if you had only 1 positive out of the three in each variance we should be good.
LSS-Happy
Celestech-No
Merger-No
the share price go will up.
LSS-Unhappy
Celetech-Yes $$$
Merger-No
the share price will go up.
LSS-Unhappy
Celestech-No
Meger-Yes
Depending on how profitable the other company is the share price should go up or at least hold.
If we get a Yes/Yes/No we should still really do well. And if all 3 go our way we're golden.
Only with 3 negatives do I think we're screwed.
They have no choice but to give us something of substance whether it be good or bad. By scheduling the original CC haphazardly and canceling last minute Tom can only be redeem himself by providing us information at the end of March.
There are several different scenarios that can play out that will add value to share price. But only one that will drag us down, and rightfully so.
LSS-Unhappy with results
Celestech-Whatever BS reason it didn't come together
Merger-Not happening anytime soon.
I'd also like to see them get the Celestech contract and that DoD contract I posted about a month ago. http://www.zyn.com/sbir/sbres/sttr/dod/navy/navst13a-005.htm
How many companies out there could even bid something like that? It's like it was made for us. It closes March 27th @ 6AM which coincides with our CC. In my experience with Government contracts they're awarded to the lowest qualified bidder within a couple hours of the close.
The buying isn't aggressive but the sellers have been dispersed. In Canada only 100k stands in the way of .165 cents. About 260k right now on the bid between .13-.135.
You wrote that? Internet high five!
No worries century, your posts are a huge credit to this board.
Is Arena's Belviq Priced Right?
Man, I don't know who is right anymore. So now it's $3.33 a pill. If that's true I'm happy about that.
The PR today made it sound like the name change would be quick. Probably before PDAC.
I'm disappointed in the gains from the news. Around 1 million traded in Canada and 370,000 in the U.S. I thought we would get to .20. The volume brought the potential but too many weak hands were holding shares.
They'll need a contract or some type of real media exposure to get this to level up. Fortunately, with a better name (that doesn't have the negative connotation that "rare earth" does) and Mark Smith we're definitely looking poised for that. It wasn't that long ago Molycorp was $50 a share with a market cap around 10 billion. Smith has valuable experience and connections. He's from Nebraska too.
You mean NioCorp :)
Is Mark Smith going to be there with them? I emailed PDAC to see if they're presenting or just at a booth.
I think a safe pill is exactly what this microwave society is looking for. Whether they go to the doctor to lose weight or not anyone who goes in for a routine physical that is obese will hear about it from their doctor. Obese people will have discussions about weight loss whether intended to or not. Most of the obese populous is highly functional and only 25% are diabetic. I see most of them as good candidates for Belviq and I don't think I'm alone.
Does anyone know a ballpark of what insurance will cover? In this bad economy I don't see hoards of people lining up to see their doctors and pay the visit co-pay along with whatever the co-pay is on a drug that cost $300-$600 for a 1 month supply. Usually you raise prices after you get a solid customer base.
Edit:
Qsymia is $140.00 for a 1 month supply. Belviq is 2x better so I guess we'll see what happens.
Jake it's really simple math.
Arna gets $3.33 per pill and Eisai gets 2x that. That's about $10 per pill. Which I think is ridiculous. If $10 per pill is "suggested retail" and the actual price ends up being $5 that is more realistic but still over what I expected to be the initial price.
I contacted these news outlets.
I suggest you all do the same. The last time Quantum was on Fox Business News it hit 70 cents.
http://www.bloomberg.com/pressroom/contacts/
http://help.foxnews.com/entries/500736-Where-can-I-send-story-questions-corrections-or-news-tips-
I see that price as an inhibitor for sales.
Do we have an idea what the average % of insurance coverage is? Because no uninsured person is going to be using this at $10 a pill.
Ex Molycorp CEO Mark Smith has a new job.
Working with a penny stock company who owns the rights to a Niobium resource Molycorp regrettably sold a couple decades ago to help develop their Mountain Pass mine. They also have the person who was in charge of Niobium sales for IamGold. He left IAG and stepped up his position at this company.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-molycorp-ceo-joins-quantum-130000581.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/quantum-announces-changes-directors-212041318.html
I own a handful of mining stocks. I have the most money behind QREDF. The management at Quantum is great and I believe that whatever can be done they are doing it. This is a diamond in the rough if you've got the time or interest to check it out.