Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)

[inversor86]

I'm changing my expected FDA approval date. A while back I posted that I expect it possibly in May of 2013. Let's change that to June 2014. I just found this out recently and was sort of annoyed, but there isn't anything we can do about it. This is one of the articles indicating results in mid 2013, so you know my original expectation wasn't baseless. http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/05/09/avita-medical-a-solid-biomedical-play/

Why the hold up? Avita has had trouble recruiting people for their trial and were at around 80% recruitment last month. The difficulty is in order to be admitted into the trial they need 2 people to have a very similar burn. I'm assuming this means size, location, style, cause ect. 1 person gets traditional treatment and the other gets Re-Cell. The whole study per pair takes 1 year. Meaning it will be about a year from the time they 100% recruitment.

I sold 25% of my shares when it hit $3 recently. I'll buy them back plus the difference in the $2.40's. With this prolonged time between FDA approval there should be plenty of time to get more cheap shares. The "smart" money won't start moving in until around 6 months before the FDA results come in. In a way I am somewhat relieved because I only have about 50% of the position in Avita that I want.