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OM-007,
You need to re-read you own posts to determine where you missed the boat. I only quoted your posts and tied them to your analogies.
not unless you were not born a natural US citizen
You have a peculiar venality let me guess 'you are not from the South'.
OM-007,
Regardless of my understanding of your English, you are the one flip flopping.
First you state the warrant is absolutely the reason the stock dropped, then you state that there is just a slight chance the warrant could affect the price.
And now in your last post you state that anything less than 50% could be called slight?
Now I am from an oil family. In Texas we call ourselves oil trash and for the most part are proud of it. And in the oil patch close to 50/50 is a good thing and not a slight chance.
Being from Texas (5th gen) my English may not be as keen as yours but I know I am an oilman and do not just title myself one.
That one is easy.
OBO-1 and recurring doubt as to what is in the JDZ coupled with negative publicity from the search warrant.
But in my opiniom more of the downturn has t do with Chevron tightholing information than with any other reason that has been brought before this board.
OM-007,
007's 1st Quote:
If a company is found to have done something illegal (paying bribes to get their contract) their ownership of those rights can be nullified
007's 2nd Quote:
Let's not mix up my posts, I do not think it is likely, I simply think it is possible.
So which is it? Are you retracting your original contention?
Yesterday you were very conise in stating that if ERHC were found guilty of bribery they could/would have all their JDZ rights terminated by US Courts. But now you are saying it is only a possibility. So if all your speculation is now just a slight possibility why waste our energy and time posting and defending this unlikely contention on our board.
IMO
Bayfisher
Mark,
Again to inform our posters here, What all this 'probably' means is that Chevron feels they are on top of a significant discovery. To drill off structure means that you are drilling on the periphery (the edge) of a structure to help size it up and determine its overall size.
I have worked for majors (including Chevron) for more than 17 years. If a major feels they have made a significant discovery they will tight-hole all information while they figure out how best to exploit their results. If you know the history of Block 31 in West Texas you know some of the unbelievable examples of the games that the majors play trying to out fox each other.
To put it in perspective CVX will not give out any information until they have thoroughly analyzed how they can magnify their hold on this area. Unless a leak is forth coming (highly unlikely) we may not know for a year or more exactly what CVX knows.
Therefore for our SP to move where we want it to, ERHC is going to have to make the 1st move. After watching this stock for the better part of 10 months I still have not determined what Sir Offor wants to do with this company. Does he want to sell it, use Chrome oil to produce it's rights, or as some say allow his family and friends to play the stock up and down over the last year making millions coming in and out of ERHE.OB. I cannot determine.
I feel that as shareholders we should encourage the Houston office to be more forthcoming with information and perspective on material events coming out of the JDZ.
Finally while I agree with some of what OILPHANT says, his cryptic nature and the fact that he plays on so many of the investors hopes and fears directs me to ignore him and not even open his posts anymore. I am reminded of a little truculent boy that pulls the wings off of a fly and watches it hop around.
That is my 2 cents.
BayfisherII
absolutely no correlation there. It is more of an indicator of the amount of drive.
To understand size and the ultimate reserves they need to drill several more wells run BHP's then run tests for porosity an permeability. And even then all they can make is an educated guess. They will never really know what this reservoir can do until they have finished producing it.
But with the height of the production zones we keep hearing about from Oilphant this could be (depending on the overall diameter) a very large find. It is unusual to find these types of pressures in such a large zone. Not uncommon for some of the Gray and Bartlett zones here in the states but generally those just measure a few feet in thickness.
its all psig - water pressure makes no difference
Very similar, I ran wire in Prudhoe bay from 78 thru 81.
Reservoir depth (if I remember correctly) was around 9,200 feet. Reservoir temp around 220f. Pay zone around 260 feet.
whp = well head pressure
Oilphant,
What is the BHP at 11,500'.
NO - What is the difference?
Also called Gunsels or Gophers
I am from the dreaded "Republic of Texas" and spent my early years on the coast. It's one of my better vices.
SYNM has a primary ineterst in OML 113. This is an area about 12 miles offshore just south of the Benin-Nigeria demarcation line. In about 300 feet of water. This area also has potential. SYNM did a 3D-overlay Stack Migration analysis and concluded they had a very good chance of encountering hydrocarbons there. The first well found a zone of gas but not substantion amounts of oil. The SYNM conclusion is they drilled in the wrong spot (high side of the pay zone) and plan to re-drill as soon as they can get a rig.
For more info go to SYNM's web-site and do your own DD. But I assure you they are a player in off-shore Nigeria.
BayFisher
Just wanted to let everyone know that on the way to work this morning NPR openly discussed Chevron's ONO-1 and that it contained at leats 1 Billion Barrels of recoverable reserves.
Still not the news we are looking for but this does start to show that the news is getting out.
Board memebers,
Help me out on a little economic analysis.
Per NightTrader on the other board:
China just paid $2.45B for 45% stake of Kenyan oilfield that contains between 600M to 1.1Billion barrels of oil.
Assuming the Kenyan oilfield contained at least 850M recoverable barrels (midpoint) then the average price paid per barrel was $6.40.
Now if ERHC on average owns 22% of the mineral rights in Block 2 then for every billion recoverable barrels validated there should be an ERHC reserve value increase of $2.00/share.
That is assuming Offor sells out. If ERHC stays invloved our share price COULD see a higher multiplier affect.
Anyway by my calculations and under the original Western Geophysical analysis Blocks 2, 3, 4 & 5 have 10 billion to 14 billion recoverable barrels and if you weight average ERHC's percentage ownership at 22% our share price should minimally be $20 to $28 dollars on confirmation.
But if the reserve potential is what is being insinuated by some entities (aka: JS, Doc,..etc) then the market value of ERHC's ownership of these blocks could be as much as $100/share.
But what do I know?
Bayfisher2
Bayfisher2 - Tulsa
SYNM - Tulsa company have proprietary rights to their own version of the Fischer-Troppe GTL conversion.
Additionally they are primary owner to the mineral rights in OML 113. They drilled a dry hole last fall (actually they hit a large gas cap) but feel they drilled in the wrong location. At the poresent I own 3,000 shares of SYNM. I have had as much as 10,000 and have done very well trading in and out over the last year. Ths could be another very strong stock, not only with their Nigerian mineral rights but aso their proprietary GTL process.
As an aside the are in discussions with the Governor on Montana about Coal to Liquids.
I also have over 50,000 of ERHE
Think "Marshall Dillon"
Hey Bazil,
I was responding to the numbers presented by JDUBS.
"I read two days ago about CNOOC making a deal for $4.5b to buy 45% of a company that would be online in '08. It didn't say which company. I think it's us. 45% of sharecount into 4.5b by my calculations puts the buy-in @ $8.39pps, perhaps some of you number crunchers can look it over."
He indicates that the deal was $4.5 for 45%. If those numbers are correct then 14.08/share seems to be the buyin price (for that number of shares).
It would seem that would indicate a much higher market share price, maybe as much as 20 to 25% higher. On the open market.
JMHO,
BayFisher2
Jdubs,
By my calculations that buy in price should equate to a pps of $14.0845/share.
Calculations:
$4.5 Billion to buy 45% equate to $10 Billion to buy 100%
$10 billion market value divided by approx 710 million shares equates to $14.0845/share.
Do you see issues with the above math?
Bayfisher2
SYNM - Syntroleum, owns the rights to OML 113
Maestro,
You are being tautological in your list of unproven items.
In affect it is 3 or 4 at best.
dbernet,
Even more impressive is if you believe that the zone is 3,000 feet thick then the whole reservoir is 1,115 cubic miles.
IF BHP is above 3000 psig then depending on conditions (ie, porosity and permeability) this could be the biggest discovery in the last 60 years
5% is more than 37 million shares. If they buy that on the open market we are in for a ride!
He's right. Until we have news and trade volume, these day to day price swings are meaningless.
We will not break the 1.00/share ceiling without volume, probably have to go well over 10,000,000 shares/day to break that glass ceiling.
Long and holding
Snow, While we know the compressability of oil is not great it is under prressure which leads to maximum saturation. If these rumored sizes are anywhere near being true one would have to label this "probably" the biggest find in the last 50 or 60 years.
My guess would be the best they could muster under one well is a good estimate that they have something big. That is all
Redinvest,
I am sure they have, that is gerally done just after perforation. In this case with 800 feet of pay it may have taken them a day or two to determine just where to perforate.
Once the well is shut in they generally (but not always) run a 72 hour build up.
Snow that is true, but the duration of that high fast push depends also on reservoir size
Finally to really understand what they have Chevron is going to have t run a BHP Test(bottom hole pressure test). They will run an electronic tool down the production pipe all the way to the zone and shut the well in at the surface. They then measure the pressure build up in the reservoir. From these gradients they can calculate Z-Factor and determne reservoir size, permeability, and even the best flow rate to flow the reservoir at to produce the best API crude they can and extend the reservoirs life the best.
Meridian,
10,000 BBL's per day on a restricted flow is common oilfield language. It describes the flow rate at the surface through a specific size opening. In the oil field we refer to this as a specific choke size. This an indication of the amount of oil that can be pushed through a resticted opening in a day. Obviously the more oil there was the better the well.
In all indications with 800 feet of pay you could have several layers of permeability and porosity depending on where you were in the pay zone. From what I have gathered (with the fact that there is still a lot of info missing) 10,000 BBl's per day is very good.
Meridian,
Have you seen the following on JS's Blog?
The alert observer - or the smart investor - will also have noticed that poster "Meridian" on the heavily-censored "pumping-allowed-only" InvestorsHub board started propping up ERHC on your side of the pond precisely when the company needed support with negotiations on our side. One will not be surprised to see that this poster tells that board's eternal wishful thinkers very much what they want to hear (if only they knew!) and completely ignores any question that could infer scenarios that are less than "rosy".
Do you know who Doc is?
Besides being a pretty decent guy are you a Longhorn also?
This is the 1st time this idiot has posted on this board. And like most slammers he makes impossible statements and doesn't give any justifications.
He is young, dumb, and full of _ _ _ _.
Point made, now let it go.
Symbol Last Trades Share volume % chg
ERHE 0.87 24 128,500 19.01
PRE-Market as 8:30AM Central
AFREN closed up 6.86%