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Re: bayfisherii post# 556

Sunday, 04/30/2006 10:58:12 AM

Sunday, April 30, 2006 10:58:12 AM

Post# of 10911
Board memebers,

Help me out on a little economic analysis.

Per NightTrader on the other board:
China just paid $2.45B for 45% stake of Kenyan oilfield that contains between 600M to 1.1Billion barrels of oil.

Assuming the Kenyan oilfield contained at least 850M recoverable barrels (midpoint) then the average price paid per barrel was $6.40.

Now if ERHC on average owns 22% of the mineral rights in Block 2 then for every billion recoverable barrels validated there should be an ERHC reserve value increase of $2.00/share.

That is assuming Offor sells out. If ERHC stays invloved our share price COULD see a higher multiplier affect.

Anyway by my calculations and under the original Western Geophysical analysis Blocks 2, 3, 4 & 5 have 10 billion to 14 billion recoverable barrels and if you weight average ERHC's percentage ownership at 22% our share price should minimally be $20 to $28 dollars on confirmation.

But if the reserve potential is what is being insinuated by some entities (aka: JS, Doc,..etc) then the market value of ERHC's ownership of these blocks could be as much as $100/share.

But what do I know?
Bayfisher2

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