Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
spartex, re: jan 2022,
fwiw, i suspect we'll see the same in a couple weeks
after the recent insane run-up,
which don't seem justified by econ / interest rate data.
seems like typical end-of-year fund ROI window dressing
for their 2024 marketing campaigns,
but on steroids this year.
also, most of the 2023 index gains have been from ~7 tech stocks,
not a broad market rally.
which suggests a lot of hopium underneath SPY?
on that notion, i suspect we'll see some selloffs early jan
as the fund mgrs take their foot off the rally gas
before finding footing again.
only time will tell.
fomc remains the wildcard in the mix.
SPM, re: DFCO vs MIKP comparison,
i never tracked DFCO, so i have don't know what parallels you see therein.
but i have tracked MIKP since its inception in 2009.
and in all that time, mark has not capitalized on IPs,
and has sprung a surprise RS, into which he rapidly diluted,
with no tangible progress on any biz plan.
that's the data we have on the table.
i get that you don't feel it's relevant this time around.
and, honestly, i hope your assumption is correct.
but it seems prudent to recognize
that you are making an assumption
that defies 14 years of empirical history.
again, my only real point here
is that you seem more confident in mark having changed his stripes
than seems rational given the evidence.
and, given you don't seem to have known about the neville toxic note,
maybe you aren't reading the filings closely for full DD?
all that said, i'm still holding MIKP, myself.
and i do believe mark will at least try to get film production rolling next year.
but since the RS news, my perception of odds of the gamble here
has significantly changed.
SPM, re: "Why is the ratio what it is? Likely because in the big picture at some point Mark sees himself needing it."
if mark had specific plans for partnerships, etc...
that would certainly make sense.
but you sidestepped the core of the question i asked you:
[[ why do you think mark is willing to write several paragraphs
explaining why he thinks the RS, uplist, etc.. are important,
but completely avoids the topic of the ratio increase? ]]
spelling it out,
if mark is bumping the AS for future biz deal plans,
then why wouldn't he just say that openly?
instead, he has answered every question but the AS bump question
despite my asking several times.
thus, the core of my question to you,
which you haven't answered:
why is mark avoiding discussing the AS bump?
what does that imply about his actual motivations for the AS bump?
SPM, re: "My belief is that the stars have aligned here to allow the company to execute their plan without the toxic note route."
mark already took on convertible financing (aka: toxic note) last august.
$50k convertible debt to john neville,
which is due feb 8th.
it's in the filings:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1550222/000118518523000902/ex_563523.htm
seems unlikely mark will have $50k in cash 7 weeks from now,
so neville will have the power to force dilution then.
SPM, re: most valuable the I.P. market has ever been
it's one thing to secure an IP option.
it's another to do something with it.
i remain cautiously optimistic,
as i do believe mark wants to be a successful filmmaker.
re: doubters some serious pause,
it seems most of the doubters, including myself,
are primarily concerned with post-RS dilution,
aka: history repeating.
as before,
i def grok your "buy when there's blood in the streets" logic.
but you don't seem to worry much about the dilution risk?
curious to hear your thoughts on mark's motivation
for increasing the AS/OS ratio 5x with this restructure.
if mark doesn't plan to dilute heavily post-RS,
then why change the AS/OS ratio at all?
moreover, while mark has replied to all my other questions by email,
he has never replied to my request for logic behind the ratio increase,
despite my asking it several times.
why do you think mark is willing to write several paragraphs
explaining why he thinks the RS, uplist, etc.. are important,
but completely avoids the topic of the ratio increase?
seriously, do you have a logical explanation for that?
and if not, does that not give you serious pause for thought?
re: Could be a gap and run today,
could well be.
looks like 456.3 held as S on the pullback,
and it's already over 458 now.
i hope you scalped some solid calls on that push?
i'm still "offline" this week, so not able to watch closely enough to trade.
looks like i'm missing a great week of momo moves in both directions.
oh SPY...
gapping up +2...
then selling off to close down -2...
because they can.
re: UVXY and SPY are completely disconnected today,
VIX is based on 30-day SPY options,
meaning currently calc'd based on SPY options expiring in january,
ie: after the end-of-year fund ROI window-dressing rally will cease.
in this case, won't surprise me if we see
major SPY selloff in the first week or two of jan.
so VIX and SPY might be less in sync the next couple weeks
until VIX is calc'd on late jan SPY options.
https://cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_indices/governance/VIX_Methodology.pdf
sky, re: I do not think Mark will back out of the reverse split for MIKP,
yeah, with the continued filings,
seems clear mark is 100% committed to the RS.
time will tell how it plays out.
def makes sense to wait for cheaper or biz clarity
once you have your initial position.
i still feel you are playing with fire here.
but i def grok the gamble.
with the continued filings,
seems clear mark is committed to the RS.
unless mark has production rolling before the RS,
which seems unlikely given the timing,
the price will prolly erode lower
than 0050 (0001 pre-split)
as traders anticipate dilution.
and tank much lower if mark does dilute.
time will tell.
as a large holder,
i hope your optimism plays out
as a long term MIKP holder,
who lived thru the prior RS,
i'm not particularly confident.
what will be, will be.
great market timing today, MoD!
making money in both directions! 💪
i'm not trading this week,
but just noticed SPY is down 2.5 today.
guessing SPY will still rally into EOY
for fund mgr annual ROI window-dressing,
but def a lot of profit-taking at these levels.
we may have some great put opps in early jan
when the fund mgrs take their feet off the bot buy pedals
and prolly go short themselves, allowing freefall.
spartex, great job with the midcaps!
i haven't paid enough attention to russell/wilshire and obviously should!
hopefully, LWLG will also boom for you soon!
looks like a great day for SPY calls today!
congrats to those who rode them!
i was busy with CRM and TSLA all day.
almost got SPY 458c @ 0.55 on the ~11am break higher
but was already tracking 5 other tickers
and watching CRM & TSLA for rollover.
SPY 458c HOD was 1.80.
bid still 0.87 on this pullback.
would have been a good trade.
enough to buy some high-quality coal for the xmas stockings...
what site are you looking at?
EM == "expert market" is label OTC uses:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/tggi/overview
nowwhat, yeah, i was tracking USO for the OPEC summit today.
per chart below, USO dec01 71p ran 7x this morning.
not as dramatic as SPY 455c EOD,
but a nice steady selloff channel until it found S.
in theory USO should rally tmrw
on anticipation of higher oil prices coming
as opec reduces production.
but i didn't want to risk call overnight.
might scalp tmrw if it looks good.
looks like a drive for 455 max pain
fwiw, bailed on all puts on this dip for +48% on the spread.
max pain is 455 today
and SPY's been a precarious rollercoaster since noon
with UVXY 5min shifting bearish since noon.
should have bailed at 12:30 ET
but was distracted with USO, NVDA, AMD...
SPY new LOD,
UVXY new HOD.
still holding all puts
SPY new LOD now
UVXY new HOD, rallying strongly on increased volume.
doubled-down on SPY puts
for possible continuation lower.
SPY 10am rally stalling, UVXY finding S.
got SPY Dec 01 23 $453 Put @ 0.72
for possible continued downtrend this morning
UVXY finally selling off a bit (might not last).
SPY still above recent high of 456.38.
if SPY breaks under 456,
the bottom could fall out.
yeah, headfake gap up and massive rug pull def possibly.
viz, UVXY just found footing again, as SPY sells off.
looks like UVXY rolling over now...
time will tell...
SPY & UVXY still rallying strongly together.
which will win?
MSFT tanking, but AAPL popping,
balancing each other as SPY heavyweights.
got some SPY Nov 29 '23 $459 Call @ 0.25 on pullback.
UVXY trying to rally as SPY rally stalls.
might be a decent SPY pullback soon
from which to consider calls
(and watch for the bottom to fall out,
per bait-n-switch headfake possibility)
SPY still holding 457 in pre
with UVXY possibly gapping down >1%.
gapping over recent R levels
suggests today's script is to run to at least 460.
or...
could be a massive headfake
to bait calls and buyers
into which the casino can take profits.
i'm guessing up for at least the morning.
if there's not an opening dump below prior R,
i'll be fishing for calls on a dip.
ES futs raged overnight.
SPY already over 457 in pre now.
it that holds, SPY will gap above
the R of the past few days,
which, theoretically, should induce
a blue sky breakout higher today.
but might also be a massive headfake
to bait calls an eager equity buyers
before the casino takes profits
in a massive dump the rest of the day.
never can tell with bees.
either way, prolly a big move today.
so an OTM straddle will prolly pay off.
fwiw, my thought is to just watch the opening
for an oscillation or two of surge and pullback
and then scalp the apparent momo til it fades.
also tracking AFRM & TSLA,
both of which had big runs yesterday
and might enjoy follow-thru rallies today.
TSLA gapping up to 250 overnight
presumably on cybertruck splash tmrw.
maybe friday 0dte put plays for TSLA
per "sell on news?"
only $1466 in dollar volume above 0011.
ie: nothing substantial, just paint.
11/28/2023 15:29:52 0.0013 8
11/28/2023 14:36:18 0.0018 102359
11/28/2023 13:17:32 0.0016 382000
11/28/2023 13:01:36 0.0014 1641
11/28/2023 11:20:17 0.0013 514000
11/28/2023 10:27:10 0.0011 29790
11/28/2023 10:15:04 0.0011 15000
re: why shareholders aren't voting on the RS,
the math is, by design, stacked against us.
[[ On the Record Date, there were 2,382,642,000 shares of common stock outstanding, with the holders thereof being entitled to cast one vote per share and 3,415,142 shares of preferred stock outstanding with the holders thereof entitled to vote with the common and cast 1,000 votes per share. ]]
mark's shares:
common: 54,316,653
preferred: 3,014,286
total mark votes: 3,068,602,653
total common votes: 2,382,642,000
meaning, voting on the RS:
2.4b against (we common holders)
3.1b for (mark)
the motion carries...
here's the RS filing for group ref:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1550222/000118518523001260/mikp20231127_def14c.htm
fwiw, UVXY finally showing a sign of life @ 12:05
as SPY 5min bull flag sags.
SPY looks like it wants higher.
UVXY 5min / 60min both solidly bearish, struggling with R @ 6ema/9ema
i'm in ROKU & TSLA calls this morning,
but still watching SPY, as ever...
sideways consolidation
ttmm, haven't heard anything from mark
since i emailed him, asking him to tweet
an update about 10Q filing,
which he did.
which is as it should be.
i don't want him to slip any insider info to me.
our convos have just been about the pitfalls of the RS, etc...
and me asking him to tweet updates on concerning uncertainties.