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HRTG - SSKILLZ - Are you adding to your HRTG position here in the low $14 range. I've initiated a position closer to $14.50 over the last several weeks. What do you think they can produce in terms of EPS in Q3?
Thanks
Re - PEIX - Are you still accumulating with this decline? Ethanol futures fell again today and are now in the low $1.70 range. My put strategy was blown-up with the drop to under $17. Thankfully, it was a small bet. I'm looking to buy down here and added a bit around $17.25 this afternoon.
Great find! Looks like they also have a brochure for the product put together and posted on their LinkedIn page.
https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=352770015&authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=V1V1&locale=en_US&trk=tyah2&trkInfo=tarId%3A1410839597922%2Ctas%3Aarcoplate%2Cidx%3A1-1-1
Apparently "ArcoCeramics" and "ARMATUFF" were trademarked back in December 2013.
http://www.ipaustralia.com.au/applicant/alloy-steel-australia-int-pty-ltd/trademarks/1564714/
Looks like they have also trademarked something called "Atomic Nanotechnology"
http://www.ipaustralia.com.au/applicant/alloy-steel-australia-int-pty-ltd/trademarks/
Glad to see that they're investing in new products and technologies...
bbotcs - Thanks for the links and I appreciate the posts. I agree that the ethanol industry is one with lots of uncertainty beyond 2014. These positions are short-term in nature, and with the September $19 put options expiring in a week, I feel quite comfortable with the share price rebounding back to over $21 this afternoon. Similarly, the October $17.5 puts are also short-term and deep in the money. I'm making a bet that these issues (2015 corn crop, brazilian ethanol, etc.) will not impact the share price significantly over the next week and month as more focus will be on the short-term 2014 results.
Also sold some October $17.50 puts for $0.60. Some nice premiums out there on the puts...
I took the opportunity to sell some September $19 puts for $0.30. I'm ok buying the stock at $18.70 if put by next Friday. Will look to sell more puts if the stock continues to fall.
I will be updating the IBox with the latest quarterly information tonight.
While the quarter was disappointing, I agree that it was not the disaster some fear it was. The pior Q3 was definitely a record in term of both EBITDA and EPS, though EPS was inflated by over $0.03 due to the impact of currently fluctuations. This quarter's sales of $6.2 million is in line with the last 3 quarters, which have come in around $6.5 million. Seems as though the slow-down in mining investment is having some impact, though not as large of an impact as on some of its competitors. Bisalloy also cited issues with foreign competitors dumping plate into the Australian market. I wonder if that has impacted Alloy. Q3 was negatively impacted by 2 items, the negative impact related to currently fluctuations and a higher than usual 55% tax rate. If one were to remove the currency impact and normalize the tax rate to 30%, you're looking at a $0.04 EPS, which is not as bad as the $0.022 reported.
Even with elevated working capital levels, the company's cash balance increased about $1.2 million in the quarter to approximately $6.0 million. The stockholders' equity has increased to over $24.6 million, or $1.42 per share.
With the performance in Q3 2014, the trailing twelve month EPS declined to $0.213, or $0.227 excluding the impact of currency fluctuations. Excluding cash, at $1.30, the company is still trading at only 4.5x earnings. We also now know that the company is capable of producing EPS of more that $0.10 per share when sales exceed $9 million. With the company's consitent profitability and big quarter potential, I added more this morning on the dip below $1.15.
KIK - AYSI - Sorry for the delayed response, my travels have taken me to Prague, Budapest, Madrid, and now the wine country in Spain...
The SA article mentions essentially all the same themes that I've been sharing about AYSI for the past several months. The consistent and growing financial performance, low relative valuation to comparable public companies, and being a potential acquisition candidate from companies like Bradken.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=96583774&txt2find=bradken
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=97586538&txt2find=bradken
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94947851&txt2find=bradken
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=86388674&txt2find=bradken
In terms of the industry sources, I have not reached out to many outside sources to confirm the author's statements. The information seems reasonable and fits within what I've researched and learned about the company over time.
I continue to believe that $2.00 - $2.50 is closer to fair value based on the company's current performance, and not taking into account any potential growth related to their Indonesia expansion...
KIK,
I've been in Canada on a remote lake fishing the past several days and haven't had a chance to dig into the article. From the look of it, there has been a positive reaction. I'll try and spend some time analyzing it here and get back as soon as I can.
Innovation from Arcoplate continues. The below blurb comes from their facebook page, which has been quite active here lately. If only they were as good as communicating with investors as they are with communicating with potential customers, we'd be above $2.00.
Arcoplate's Newest Development
Arcoplate's latest break through in 2014 is producing our 4ft wide plate. Traditionally, our 2ft wide plate has serviced the globe since 1991. Arcoplate's 4ft wide plate was introduced to our manufacturing plant 6 months ago after 3 years of engineering testing. This was the company's millennium break through with our new single pass 20mm on 11mm wear plate. Arcoplate has now included our full range of anti-hang up and carry back wear plates in 4ft wide plates, from 12mm to 32mm.
AYSI - Huge volume here in the mid $1.30's. Looks like our little gem is getting discovered. I still feel that fair value is closer to $2.00, without taking into account potential positives related to Indonesia...
Good luck to all. This has been a fun week...
The reason cost of sales and gross profit are off is because cost of sales is excluding depreciation to show the expense on a cash basis, as depreciation expense in non-cash.
It also flows down nicely that way to an EBITDA figure, which in my opinion is the most relevant financial performance metric (even more important than EPS).
I've assumed that depreciation is imbedded within cost of sales, though it may be possible that some of it is included within the SG&A line.
Hope that clears it up.
AYSI - I've updated the AYSI board to reflect the updated financial information.
I did adjust the 2013 quarterly numbers to reflect the restated sales and earnings. The methodology for the adjustments was based on the additional disclosures in the Q2. So sales were lowered by $781,049 which flowed down the income statement to the EBTIDA and net income shown. I believe the rebates were related to the new BP contract that was signed in mid 2013, so I adjusted the sales for their Q3 and Q4 2013 in the financials.
So the trailing twelve month EPS of ~$0.34 reflects the restated financials.
I think the P/E is currently closer to 2.5x if you exclude cash (which I think is temporarily depressed due to higher than average working capital levels).
I still believe the $2 range is approximately fair value at the moment, without taking into account any potential value or benefits related to the Indonesia land/property and potential. I know they are working and investing capital to get that facility up and running.
Technically, it looks as though the stock is looking to continue its breakout here above $1.10. There are strong bids and a lack of sellers which should help propel this higher.
Those are my current thoughts. Good luck to all.
Nat,
I did adjust the 2013 quarterly numbers to reflect the restated sales and earnings. The methodology for the adjustments was based on the additional disclosures in the Q2. So sales were lowered by $781,049 which flowed down the income statement to the EBTIDA and net income shown. I believe the rebates were related to the new BP contract that was signed in mid 2013, so I adjusted the sales for their Q3 and Q4 2013 in the financials.
So the trailing twelve month EPS of ~$0.34 reflects the restated financials.
I think the P/E is currently closer to 2.5x if you exclude cash (which I think is temporarily depressed due to higher than average working capital levels).
I still believe the $2 range is approximately fair value at the moment, without taking into account any potential value or benefits related to the Indonesia land/property and potential. I know they are working and investing capital to get that facility up and running.
Technically, it looks as though the stock is looking to continue its breakout here above $1.10. There are strong bids and a lack of sellers which should help propel this higher.
Those are my current thoughts, hope they help...
I'm not too worried about the sellers at this level. The company continues to show solid, consistent financial performance. This alone will drive valuation up to a more reasonable level. In my mind, that is closer to $2.00 than $1.00...
IBOX updated with the latest financial information.
I think it speaks to their product. They continue to perform well even though other wear suppliers in their space struggle. To me it means their product is superior and they are taking market share. Now that miners have their large expansions up and running and producing at full steam, AYSI should benefit from a reliable stream of maintenance and replacement work. They can also focus on expanding their markets beyond their core Australian operations, as I'm sure Vale in South America is a logical target, along with other coal and iron mines around the world.
I'll work on updating the company financials included in the iBox tonight to reflect the Q2 results and the adjustments to the 2013 results. But based on my calculations, the trailing twelve month revenue is $28.9 million, EBITDA is $8.6 million, and EPS is $0.34. The $0.34 trailing twelve month EPS is a record level of trailing earnings.
AYSI - Solid report with EPS in the $.06 range. There was also an adjustment to 2013 results, lowering EPS from $0.32 to $0.28. Cash moved lower as the company paid down accrued liabilities and accounts receivables and inventory balances moved up. I would expect those working capital items to normalize moving forward with cash increasing in the next quarter or two. Book value now above $1.37 per share.
Overall, I'm pleased with the results and glad to see the quarterly report out. I think this could move us above $1.00...
Good luck to all
Solid report with EPS in the $.06 range. There was also an adjustment to 2013 results, lowering EPS from $0.32 to $0.28. Cash moved lower as the company paid down accrued liabilities and accounts receivables and inventory balances moved up. I would expect those working capital items to normalize moving forward with cash increasing in the next quarter or two.
Overall, I'm pleased with the results and glad to see the quarterly report out. I think this could move us above $1.00...
Good luck to all
Like clockwork, the bids started to build and the seller took them out with his large sell order. He only leaves it up there for a few minutes after he hits the bids, then takes it away. It looked like there were 45,000 or so share left... I would expect him to wait until more bids build up again before striking...
He waits for large bids to build up, then hits them with his large sell order. He does a good job of killing any potential upward momentum, but we're half way through his shares already, so hopefully we'll get through the rest over the next week.
Looks like the large seller's position is slowly being taken apart. He is down to 73,500 shares currently from over 140,000 last week. The healthly volume is encouraging. It will be nice to see that seller finally gone.
AYSI - New seekingalpha article out... We'll see if this gets any other investors out there interested. I agree with the majority of the themes the author highlights in the article and added a few additional tidbits in the comments section to really highlight the undervalued nature of AYSI, especially relative to others in its industry.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2211423-alloy-steel-international-1x-ev-net-income-62-percent-of-book-value-for-growing-company?source=yahoo
Q2 earnings should be out here in the next two weeks. As always, earnings tend to move the stock and draw in additional volume.
Good luck to all...
SFY - Market looks to be excited about today's releases related to the JV of their Fasken assets, doubling of their firm capacity at Fasken, and increase in Capex/production forecast for 2014... Glad to see this one finally moving.
PEIX - Maybe this will help from the latest proxy statement:
To be able to vote, you must have been a stockholder on April 24, 2014, the record date for determination of stockholders entitled to notice of and to vote at the Annual Meeting. As of the record date, 20,078,441 shares of our common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“common stock”), and 926,942 shares of our Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Series B Preferred Stock”), were issued and outstanding.
I would assume that this figures would encompass all warrants that have been exercised.
QURE - QURE has partnered with Chiesi in the EU for launch of Glybera, receiving a 20-30% net royalty rate. Analysts expect Glybera sales to reach up to $125 million by 2020, just in the EU. The EU has granted orphan drug exclusivity for Glybera for treatment of LPLD until October 2022.
In the US, they are moving toward US approval with additional trails, and expectations that the company launches the drug on its own by 2019. Sales in the US are expected to be similar to the EU. QURE expects to submit an IND filing for Glybera in the US in 1H14.
But I think QURE's value goes beyond just their treatment for LPLD. The company has a strong portfolio of gene therapy programs and will continue expanding its pipeline. Analysts mention that the Hemophilia B gene therapy could be a game changer as it offers the potential to eliminate the need for routine Factor IX replacement. Additional clinical stage pipeline programs include therapies for Porphyria,Sanfillipo B, and Parkinson's disease. QURE will likely add pipeline programs in the coming months/years.
They should be able to get through 2016 - 2017 before they need to raise cash again.
I think for the price, QURE represents an opportunity.
QURE - Baxter was a previously partner with Chatham Therapeutics on their Hemophilia treatments and had previously paid $25 million to Chatham related to the development of those treatments. I assume their relationship was a driving factor to the eventual purchase.
The $60 million of EV did not include 1.7 million options with an average strike of ~$5.35 and did not include 600,000 penny warrants. So including those (1.7 million options with an intrinsic value of ~$3.65 = $6.2 million and 0.6 million penny warrants = $5.4 million). There are also 170,000 warrants with a strike above $13. So add another $12 million or so due to warrants and options. So an EV closer to $70-$75 million currently.
Appreciate the insight.
I've been a lurker here on this board for about a year now and have had some great success following the boards general picks (especially ENTA).
I've recently run into a company that's been completely ravaged over the past two weeks (no surprise). However, this one has fallen quite significantly over the past week, down ~40% over the last 5 days. The stock seems to be stabilizing here and is trading well below their IPO price back in February.
The company is uniQure (Nasdaq: QURE). The company's market cap is about $160 million, but if you take into account the cash on the balance sheet and cash from the February IPO, the company's enterprise value is closer to $60 million. Analysts are quite favorable on the stock, especially Piper Jaffray.
A few weeks ago, a competitor was bought out by Baxter. Research firm Piper Jaffray said the Baxter acquisition has a positive read-through for Uniqure. The deal validates other hemophilia gene therapy programs in development, most notably Uniqure's, according to the firm. Analyst Joshua Schimmer wrote that there are other gene therapy programs for hemophilia in development beside Uniqure's and Baxter's, but he believes Uniqure has an advantage since it will be important to be among the first to market. The analyst also said that the market is large enough to accommodate more than one gene therapy option. Piper reiterated its Overweight rating and $35 price target on Uniqure.
Given that QURE is trading at $9 currently, does anyone have any thoughts on the current value / potential of QURE?
Appreciate any thoughts.
Good luck to all...
AYSI - Share price is firming and technicals looks to be improving with MACD lines sloping upward. The stock is still incredibly cheap. Western Australia iron ore deliveries to China hit a record last month. China stimulus around railway spending will support steel demand, along with improving economies in the US and Europe.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-04/port-hedland-iron-ore-shipments-to-china-reach-record-on-demand.html
My target is still in the $2 range at some point this year, which will bring its multiple to about half of the other public companies in the space, even though Alloy's enjoyed greater growth and margins than those competitors.
AYSI - Share price is firming and technicals looks to be improving with MACD lines sloping upward. The stock is still incredibly cheap. Western Australia iron ore deliveries to China hit a record last month. China stimulus around railway spending will support steel demand, along with improving economies in the US and Europe.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-04/port-hedland-iron-ore-shipments-to-china-reach-record-on-demand.html
My target is still in the $2 range at some point this year, which will bring its multiple to about half of the other public companies in the space, even though Alloy's enjoyed greater growth and margins than those competitors.
AYSI - Last year Q2 earnings came out on May 13th. I would anticipate something similar now that they are back on quarterly reporting, between May 10 and May 20. Q1 was reported on Feb 18., for your reference.
ESCC - Congrats to anyone that purchased earlier today or before today's release.
It's moves like this and valuations applied to other Pink Sheet companies that continue to make me scratch my head at the relative valuation to AYSI. I'm not making any negative remarks about ESCC's valuation, but it just reaffirms my astonishment at AYSI's valuation.
Hopefully these high-rising waves will eventually reach AYSI's shores...
Good luck to all...
It's listed in the audit that they report in USD. Also report on US GAAP. Quarterlies are similarly reported.
Audited Financials
Basis of Presentation
The Company adheres to accounting standards set by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). FASB sets generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) in the United States of America that the Company follows to ensure the Company consistently reports its financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
The Company's consolidated financial statements are denominated in United States dollars.
AYSI - Picked up a few shares (2,500) here today as well below $0.80. Stock seems to be consolidating in this $0.78 to $0.80 range. As you mentioned, very cheap on a P/E basis ex cash. Got the regular marketing email from them today too as part of signing up for their newsletter. Seems to be more for marketing than an actual newsletter, per se.
Good luck to all...
Definitely a pleasant surprise! EPL was my second largest holding behind AYSI as I had picked up some trading shares the past two days. Congrats to all holders.
Spoke with Sam last night as well and confirmed that quarterly results will be posted on a regular basis.
I will look to update the ibox with the latest financial results for Q1 over the weekend.
PEIX - Congrats on the great call Bob. Stock up nicely after-hours to over $10.50!
SFY - Bob, SFY has been dropping here in advance of earnings tomorrow morning. What are you looking for in tomorrow's earnings report?
Personally, I'd like to see them come within their production guidance of 3.0 - 3.1 MMBoe (preferably at the high end of course...). More importantly, I'd like to hear whether they added that third rig to their Eagle Ford drilling schedule, progress on the sale of central LA assets, and progress in terms of increasing IP rates from new wells. They mentioned two specific wells in their last earnings announcement that benefited from increased use of proppants. IP rates on those wells were 40%+ higher than the IP rates on other wells in the area. I'd like to see a continuation of that trend.
It's been a frustrating hold here, but the assets are there, they just need to execute and find a way to get more capital to really grow their production.
Appreciate your thoughts.