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SCKT...Perhaps the tender is there to support the stock while insiders sell out soon?? Their window of opportunity comes up in 3 days and last then for 30 days. They can't do the tender, but they can do the open market. They have to realize that the stock is dropping post-tender. In the cc call it sure sounded like Q1 won't have much in large orders either. $1M last year and how much this year? Deja vu I think.
The last time they put out a quarter the market didn't like, the stock went from $3.75 to $2.40. Ironically, they actually earned like 8 cents/share that quarter. It was just that scanner sales were flat because, guess what, the year before had a large order and then a year later it didn't. The old Somo sales is what made them grow. They didn't have that now.
Live by the large order. Die by it.
I can see algorithms and computers looking to do an arbitrage and buying now and selling in the tender. The catch is that the tender is only 1.2M shares. I think there will be more investors who want that price right now (between $3.75 and $4.25) than can be bought by the company.
SCKT...Q1 2017 revenue included $1M in large orders. If that doesn't repeat in Q1 2018, then you are looking at the exact same thing as now happening again.
I did see the newest 13G filing by Roy Rodgers Trust. They sold 90K shares recently. I e-mailed with him years ago. He probably is part of the reason for the tender?!?
I think the tender offer is the company being same ol' Socket Mobile management as ever. Same CEO Kevin Mills who lost money for 10 years and almost put the company in bankruptcy. Why go in debt to buy shares for a premium??
DAIO--One reason it ran to $16
newest institutional #s are out. Over 1.06M in increased shares in 4th Q from big boys.
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/daio/institutional-holdings
Wadirum1.....I have to admit that I saw the article on Linkedin where one of the top executives shared it. He also has liked military contracts with OshKosh (which POLA has contracts with in their army firefighting truck) and an autonomous boat manufacturer update (again, that POLA lists on their IR page as a customer).
Maybe a pr coming on military contract?
They just released the funds for the next phase of the Army "mule" autonomous carrier now that the budget passed. I know that POLA's partner is one of the 4 that got to the next phase. The question is it is HDT Global or General Dynamics (or maybe both??) since they are both listed as military customers for POLA in their IR presentation.
The final contract won't be awarded for awhile (2019), but the winner will get a lot of units for sure:
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2018/2/9/army-on-accelerated-path-to-buy-as-many-as-5700-robotic-mules#.Wn4Yynuzozo.linkedin
Newest short interest #s out (through Jan 31rst):
1/31/2018 224,654
1/12/2018 229,708
12/29/2017 239,571
12/15/2017 289,336
11/30/2017 275,724
11/15/2017 262,674
10/31/2017 209,063
10/13/2017 183,036
When it was at 262K before, the average daily volume was 62K shares/day. When it was at 289K, av daily volume 38K/day. Now at 224K shares, av daily volume is just 15K/day.
Worthylion.....Analysts expect $4.5M and -.01 cent loss and $5.0M and break even. They need to beat those obviously and that will draw in new investors. The key will be the outlook more than 4th Q imo. Can they start to do on the international front what is coming together domestically?
One thing that may help is in the last 10Q it said "The Company has refundable income taxes of $1,257,585 as of September 30, 2017. This was a result of estimated tax payments for the first quarter of 2017. The refundable income taxes will be used to offset any taxable net income in the annual tax return."
As such, they may not pay any taxes on net in Q4?!? If so, every boost helps.
Good close today. It'd be nice if it kept rebounding back up and everyone else has to pay a lot more to get in.
Nikodemos.....there is no doubt revenue in the U.S. will improve. Verizon is still at a certain level (and hopefully moves back up), AT&T is ramping up (and FirstNet will def help), T-mobile is supposedly happy with their demo unit and will follow up. They still have Sprint, mid-tier telecoms, tower companies and U.S. military/contractors for more. I think the stock goes up nicely in 2018 just on these.
It could be a blowout year if they could get international going at some/any level and show the opportunities there are just as great. This is the one that is frustrating.
They did $4.0M in 3Q 2017. It could easily be $10M in 3Q 2018 just on reasonable opportunities. It could be $15M if international kicked in hard and/or their 200kw generator for data centers was a big winner quick.
Any news or update turns the stock price around quick imo. Until then I just wait.
Company will be presenting at the 30th Annual Roth Conference on March 12th----just after earnings report.
http://www.roth.com/main/page.aspx?PageID=7290
Wadirum1......I think we had 1 seller early today and market makers playing games back/forth with themselves with no underlying buyers sitting around until people realized it dropped and then showed up to buy. We can't forget that this is a very low float stock. There aren't many bids sitting there lower down. As such, if one seller gets aggressive in selling and then the stock goes down.
The opposite works when there are buyers. It's how the stock went to $5.80 or so on nothing awhile back for like 30 minutes.
I doubt anyone knows any real news. I think there are some worried about the lack of it. Do I expect 4th Q to be a monster? No. I do want to see solid progress over Q3. The big thing is I want to hear what is said about Q1 and 2018.
Earnings will be first week of March. I'd like to have some kind of meaningful news release between now and then. The stock will jump over $5+ in about 10 minutes.
I talked to IR on Friday. I've seen where POLA has been running a lot of ads for hiring people in the last 5 weeks. I was curious of how many employees they have now (it was around 104 at the end of 2Q, but down to around 96 at the end of 3Q----this is from memory alone so it may be off by a couple). IR wouldn't say anything. This is the type of response I usually get (and why I usually don't bother even reaching out). The only comment I got is that 2018 is expected to be a year of execution.
Wade...AAOI...You are assuming that they didn't pre-announce because they will meet their guidance from 3rd Q cc call. However, what if they aren't pre-announcing anymore instead because of the fact they got hit with a bunch of lawsuits when they downgraded their numbers on their pre-announcement pr in early October and it caused the stock dropped? What if management has decided in 2018 that instead of setting themselves up every quarter (good or bad) that they just won't be doing it anymore because it's not worth the risk? If that's the case, then earnings could still go either way and your assumption is incorrect that no pre-announcement is bullish.
That's my thought anyways.
worthylion....I think the info (hype/hope/thoughts) are mostly coming from outside IR rep than the company. Even then, it's not been said to me. POLA's IR is pretty reserved in my communication with him.
POLA has done a good job on the surface of diversifying revenue potential, but they need it to show up in results. Once (if) that starts to happen then, imo, the less said the better. Let the numbers and meaningful new releases speak for themselves.
Worthylion....I noticed that the buying interest dried up a bit yesterday and today.
I will put this out there (it's from another message board that is private). Take it for what it is or is not worth. A shareholder who I respect met with them in Dec at the investor conference they were presenting at. He also spoke to IR in Dec too. What was relayed to him was that the company is working very closely with the U.S. Tier 1 companies. More than they think investors realize. AT&T is buying in small regular lots. They do expect a large order from them going forward. Same idea of a large order with T-mobile. Same with a South African company that they are close to getting (they would open an assembly area in country to reduce costs while maintaining margins). These orders are in the 500-1000 unit size. They just aren't sure on timing since they don't control it. The general feeling was Q1 for the latter two and Q2 for the former. Also, the military mule contract they are involved with moved to the second stage of testing. They expect Verizon back in volume too, but, as everything, they don't know about the timing. Timing is the real issue. They have a quality product, they have gotten the price point down, now can they get the paper signed?!?
I think things should turn out for investors. They need to show the ability to close on deals of significance. They need to show the international market is opening up. Even if the price dips, one pr could jump it over $6 in a heartbeat. Until we know something for sure it will probably languish for awhile. I'm hoping for some meaningful deal news before earnings comes out in early March.
If they could ever sell 1000 units/qtr we would all be giddy. In the scheme of the whole world, that's not many. Can they keep building the contacts necessary to get there in time (again, it's about timing!)
It's the 4th Q report so earnings won't be until the 1rst week of March. I'm hoping they can announce a contract before then.
Value...DAIO My thoughts are the same as yours. I don't think the run up to $16 was anywhere near justified and that $11+ is going to be over priced after Q4 reports. It's their historically weakest quarter for orders and the backlog and deferred revenue that came at the end of Q3 wasn't such it will help Q4 much. As such, where is the revenue coming from that gets everyone to push the stock up again or even potentially support it?
Wells Fargo Analyst Jennifer Fritzsche wrote in a note to investors that FirstNet construction would affect as many as 15,000 cell sites in the first year and about 45,000 over a five-year period.
Not all these sites are going to get generators. If it was up to the states they would, but I doubt AT&T will do it unless they are forced. However, a certain % will.
We need to remember that AT&T didn't just start buying POLA's generators recently because they wanted to do a favor, it's because they like the product and the obvious long term cost effectiveness. As such, they should be rewarded here with the FirstNet expansion.
As shareholders, if POLA sold 500 generators/qtr (approx $8-$10M) we are making a nice return in 2018. If they did 1000/qtr in time, we are super happy. AT&T is just one of 4 of the U.S. Tier 1 companies they have in the U.S. I just wish they would put out a pr on an international order soon to show that was possible to add to the mix.
All 50 states "opted-in" to the FirstNet contract that AT&T will be doing for first responders across the nation. Calif was the last. They are insisting they want every tower involved in the state to have a back up generator.
http://urgentcomm.com/ntiafirstnet/it-s-unanimous-california-makes-firstnet-opt-decision-expresses-reservations
Tax bill & POLA. With Rubio and Corker a "yes", it looks like it passes. POLA paid 38.5% in Q4 2016 and Q1 2017. That will drop to approx 25% in 2018. If they can get revenue boosted in the U.S. with the 4 Tier 1 customers, mid-tier/tower companies, and military then it will let more flow to the bottom line. Any international sales are just frosting on the cake (though I do hope they eventually match U.S. sales).
The reality is the low float of the stock makes it easy to manipulate for market makers and computers trading. The last 2 1/2 days shows it. Late on Wednesday it went from $5.05 to $5.41 near the end of the day on 14 trades. 13 of them were 100 shares each on the ask, the 14th for 500. Then on Thursday it jumps to upper $5s and does huge volume and then that dries up and the stock fades in the afternoon. Today it was down to the low $5s on less than 15K shares at the time before churning a bunch more volume just below $5.
I'm actually not too bothered by it. I just don't get excited when it moves up on nothing, because I assume it doesn't mean much other than someone (or multiple) is/are playing games. I'm hoping when real news comes out and real earnings emerge again, that this same manipulation pushes it up way above where it should.
3 of 4 U.S. Tier 1 telecoms are customers of POLA for sure (VZ and AT&T doing orders. T-mobile took possession of the reconfigured lower-priced unit this quarter according to cc call). What about Sprint? POLA is certified with them during 3Q. Sprint CEO now saying they will build thousands of towers to catch up to the others:
https://www.rcrwireless.com/20171207/network-infrastructure/sprint-towers-tag4
AT&T and FirstNet. I'm counting on this to benefit POLA as AT&T uses the $ to build new towers and harden the ones they have for the FirstNet contract. We are talking big money being used on this nationwide project that will last for years.
https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/att-chief-outlines-firstnet-spending-plan/
If you listen to the cc call they discuss their new Tier 1 putting in more and more orders + moving stuff from Q1 into Q4. Obviously this is AT&T. When you look at the November investor profile on POLA's website you will see under growth drivers the following:
"4.AT&T’s selection to build FirstNet, the nation’s first broadband network dedicated to first responders, could drive $46.5 billion in infrastructure buildout by a Polar Power customer
----everyone keeps focusing on when/if Verizon is coming back. They did $2.2M in 3Q. Fine if they keep it at that level if AT&T becomes the #1 customer instead.
Cross your fingers on the new tax bill passing & going into effect in 2018. No matter what your opinion is on it is, it definitely helps POLA. In 2016 their tax rate was 38% ( 35% Federal + CA). If they start to bring in revenue again in 2018 at similar rates to 3Q and 4th Q of 2016 and the tax bill goes through, a 23-24% rate (20% Federal + state) means more money flows to the bottom line. That will make up for the extra expenses they have done to boost sales.
It's definitely one stock that gets rewarded by the tax bill.
bbotcs..AAOI. I think AAOI is range bound for awhile. I've been selling weekly covered out-of-the-money puts on it and doing nicely with that. It's a way to make money here without having to own it.
bbotcs...AAOI. They did an investor conference this morning. I saw a comment on it that management said they don't expect to hit 1M units/month until sometime in 2018 (vs the prior expectation they would hit it by the end of 2017). Their factory upgrades should be complete so it's more of an issue of demand than production.
Let's see..... they have:
4 U.S. Tier 1 companies and working on U.S. tower companies and mid-tier telecom..
International orders potentially through the guzzo.
Military contracts building. (Oshkosh's military fire truck + U.S. robotic mule)
potential data centers helped by their new BOD member.
If one of them produces solid revenue the stock is up 50%+ imo. If they can get 2+ of them to go then life is good.
Not too worried about the ending of the lockout. I highly doubt any insider is interested in selling at current prices.
Did you see the new Board member? Looks like a strong addition to possibly drive sales into data centers with their 200kw generator in time.
https://ir.polarpower.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Polar-Power-Appoints-Peter-Gross-to-its-Board-of-Directors/default.aspx
Short interest as of 11/15 settlement date:
The shorts did not cover on the earnings report.
11/15/2017 262,674
10/31/2017 209,063
10/13/2017 183,036
I watched it late today. The market maker was playing games. The bid went from $5.15 to $5.00 and up/down around that area without a single share trading on the bid. The ask was $5.05 at one time. 4 trades of 100 shares later and it hit $5.30, then the ask was back down again.
Imo, there isn't anyone necessarily buying or selling right now. The market makers are bouncing things around among themselves trying to generate some action.
What they need is news.
If you listen to the cc call, the only one who isn't really ready to answer questions is the CFO. He obviously isn't used to it and was a bit nervous. Imo, that makes him the most honest one of the group. When that caller pushes him on the comment of "4th Q of 2017 being better than 4th Q of 2016" near the end of the call(which was 100% wrong as the CFO compared 2018 to 2017 earlier), the CFO was obviously not ready for a question like that. His response of saying (approximately) 'we can't really say it, but the way things were starting to line up with orders made it most likely' is very interesting. Both the CEO and COO were very bullish but vague. I thought the CFO put it into perspective the best because he wasn't prepared to discuss it at all and was caught off guard. People have a tendency to blurt out the truth more when they are flustered and not reading from a script.
If this is so, then the two analysts who have them doing $4.5M and -1 cent/share are way off and the market will like the earnings beat for sure. If that happens then the stock goes back to near it's IPO price of $7.50 imo. The reason being is because it's obvious the U.S. Tier 1 companies + U.S. cell tower companies (REIT's) will bring a solid level of business to the company. Sure Verizon isn't ordering like they did in 2016, but if you can have 4 U.S. Tier 1 companies + other U.S. tower owners and carriers providing $8M in revenue/qtr in 2018 that's even better than before. That sets them up well. If they can actually close on international orders in 2018 such that it is greater than U.S. sells, then I think the stock goes into the double digit range then.
Hweb2...DAIO
There is another poster on iHub that wrote DAIO's CFO about this back in 2Q. The CFO was vague in his response. I'm aware of this because this person and I privately communicate since we connected up on SCKT awhile back. He's the one who pointed out the similar situation between the two companies on their deferred tax loss carry forwards. If DAIO's auditor concludes that they are more than likely to use up those carry forwards, then they need to be moved from the negative side of the balance sheet to the positive, which means they aren't deducted anymore in quarterly numbers.
From SCKT's 10K this year:
Effective December 31, 2016, we released our valuation allowance for deferred taxes and set up deferred taxes on our balance sheet. With the consideration of available evidence, including three consecutive years of increasing net income and expectations for continued sustainable profitable operations, we believed that as of December 31, 2016, and in accordance with the guidance provided by ASC 740, that realization of deferred tax assets as of December 31, 2016 is more likely than not.
Hweb2...DAIO...they most likely will have to capitalize at least some portion of their net income loss carry forward this year in 4th Q which could make them be paying taxes (on paper at least) on quarterly reports in 2018. They have been profitable now 3 years in a row + the likelihood that it will continue. It's the same thing that happened to SCKT. DAIO may try and push their luck with their auditor and argue that the volatility of their industry means they should be able to continue to hold them, but I know SCKT's CFO told me that they didn't have a choice. The auditor wouldn't allow it anymore.
Even DAIO's wording on the subject in their 10Q has changed suggesting they are planning for it:
Q1 "Given the uncertainty created by our loss history, as well as the ongoing uncertain economic outlook for our industry as well as capital and geographic spending, we expect to continue to limit the recognition of net deferred tax assets and accounting for uncertain tax positions and maintain the tax valuation allowances.
Q2 "Given the uncertainty created by our past loss history and the cyclical nature of the industry in which we operate, we have limited the recognition of net deferred tax assets and maintain the tax valuation allowances. We expect to further analyze the level of valuation allowance during the second half of 2017 as we get better forecast visibility.
Q3 "Given the uncertainty created by our loss history, as well as the volatile and uncertain economic outlook for our industry and capital spending, we have limited the recognition of net deferred tax assets associated with our net operating losses and credit carryforwards and continue to maintain a valuation allowance for the full amount of the net deferred tax asset balance. We expect to further analyze the level of valuation allowance during the remainder of 2017.
If it does happen, one way to help tank the stock after Q4 report is to go on the cc call and ask "now that you have capitalized all your tax loss carry forward and will be paying full taxes in 2018, what will your effective tax rate be?" It points it out to everyone that they are fully taxed in quarterly reports and that makes the year over year comps much harder.
Though I'm not sure where the after hours volume came from. 4 trades of 8500 shares spaced apart? That's odd.
Wadirium1. I watched it. Imo, the only thing that is for sale right now is what the market makers & their computers are bouncing around trying to get action on. At the last second they pulled their asks and the stock did a 100 share trade at $5.21. What it tells me is that there wasn't a real investor with shares sitting there for sale below that price as that order would have carried through to the closing bell.
Most likely someone bought up all the shares under $5 and now the market makers are trying to play the game to get people involved so they can buy low and sell higher.
Going forward it probably goes back down a bit, but it also means that any good news coming out will leave little overhead. It's how the stock jumped over $6 on the October announcement. Then buyers faded, market makers played their game and took it to low $5s (until earnings sank it further). We just need the news in the next few months to start to be push the stock up such that it never pulls back again.
Hweb2...SCKT For a company that once had stockholder equity down to $100K (that was at the bottom when I was buying under $1) to now having equity of $19M (it got boosted up big when they capitalized their net losses), it sure has turned itself around. It's like you said----rock solid in what they do and the balance sheet. 2018 should be an easier year over year to look at the business. I think the fully taxed issue hurt them this year on the stock price.
I expect it to chug forward in growth at some level. It'd be awesome if it was 20%+, but that may be more hopeful than realistic. They really would need the industrial scanner line to start to generate strong growth to do it.
I saw where their largest shareholder, Manatuk hedge fund, bought another $25K shares in 3Q (over 300K now).
bbotcs...I don't own Square, but I wish I had. My Uncle and I just discussed this in the last 2 days (we go over what we did right/wrong in the past). I really liked the Tablet POS cash register idea and thought SCKT was the way to play it. In hindsight Square was because they interact with small businesses in so many other ways that generates reoccuring revenue and growth. It's a reminder to me to not focus so much on smaller companies---look for opportunities everywhere.
Hweb2...SCKT One thing on Q4 coming from someone who tracked inventory through their distributors for 3 years or so (I stopped last summer after I sold out of the stock). Sales in 2015 and 2016 both had October as the strongest month of the year. Both years stayed solid in through Q4 until around Dec 15th when they slow way down for the remainder. As such, you can't take October and multiple it by 3.
On the other hand, the stock is discounted quite a ways from the peak in 2017 ($4.90 or so). Not sure why as the balance sheet is solid and they are growing the business. I sold out above $4.10. I'm eying it to buy back in but I'd like it a bit cheaper to be greedy.
If they could show their industrial scanners taking off (the D700,D730 and D750), I'd load up. It's why I sold. I'm not sure that product line is a big winner if they aren't in the right software partners.
That's my opinion too. It sounds like a management team that knows AT&T and T-mobile are going to put in meaningful orders going forward and that international opportunities are just on the horizon.
One positive about the $5 move.......if people still distrust management and the stock is moving up, then perhaps the worst of it is over? What will the stock do if they bring it together?
Two things:
----the odds are 4th Q will be tax free. From 10Q: "The Company has refundable income taxes of $1,257,585 as of September 30, 2017. This was a result of estimated tax payments for the first quarter of 2017. The refundable income taxes will be used to offset any taxable net income in the annual tax return."
----There are 2.7M shares in the float outside. In the latest quarterly report up to date through 9/30, 751K of them are held by institutions. That leaves 1.95M available to buy/sell:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/pola/institutional-holdings
Yes, insider lockup end in early December. The majority is held by the CEO. I doubt he is selling anytime soon when they are putting the following comment in there earnings report:
"Moving into the fourth quarter, we have never been more confident about the future of Polar Power and our team's ability to create value for shareholders. "
Is the CEO bs'ing people or are they looking at the business and from what they see/know they are more excited than when before they had Verizon lined up with big orders? Time will tell.
Wadirum1...POLA
Maybe I'm a bit of a fool (once burned shame on you, twice burned shame on me), but I look at it this way:
Verizon did $4.59M in Q1, $1.78M in Q2, $2.2M in Q3 and are approx $700K of the backlog on Sept 30th. As such, they aren't gone, just reduced. I don't think you could make a determination where they will be for sure over the next 5 quarters (4th Q and all of 2018), but they will be there at some level.
AT&T: They did 57 units in Oct + another 100 in the process from the cc call. That's $3.0M+. It means they are a real customer that will continue forward at some level. I doubt it's a one and done ordering process.
T-Mobile: They had POLA do R&D to reconfigure a model to a lower price point (though margins are supposed to be the same?!?). The unit has shipped to them in October. It too means they are a customer, though at what level is unknown.
If we put it together, they should be getting orders at some level from 3 of the 4 big telecoms in the U.S. going forward. Perhaps I'm missing something here, but it means they have a quality product that is desirable to major carriers. The question is can they sell this quality product to other carriers around the world? They seem to have the world wide sales team in place + getting the qualifications to offer it to 32 international carriers now (with 40 more coming) and $100M in rfp's bid on.
I doubt anyone can say that they have a crap product when 3 of the 4 major carriers in the U.S. are currently buying it now. If the rest of the world is interested than POLA's management has every right to be positive.
I don't disagree that they f'd up their IPO and that has produced resentment and distrust. Getting their act together is essential and it needs to start in 4th Q.