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SNORT, if the dream is dead, I'll take your remaining shares off your hands for $.26 each. That's more than you've sold some for in the past.
And if the dream is dead, why are you still here?
I find it amazing that the person who throws around more slanderous insults than everyone else combined is threatening others with charges of slander. And he just doesn't see it. I guess it's hard to see when ones head is so far up their own...
Sorry again SPORT, maybe you should leave the math to the engineers. 3 for 1 split and up in the $600 range would be a factor of about 3.6, whereas I am here for a factor of ten or better.
And when did iHub initiate the policy of having their moderators lob personal attacks against other posters? Especially when they make up bogus numbers to do it? Even when you lie to try to make me look bad, it will really only end up making you look bad. I suggest you stop.
Just to keep the record straight, I bought a bunch of ISRG stock at just over $11 per share, around 2003. I sold a handful of shares as low as $375 but most were in the $500 range (various points). So for that investment, I multiplied my money by approximately 50X. Am I disappointed in netting myself a fifty-bagger? No. Not at all. And much of that money has been rolled into Titan stock, where I anticipate my now sub-$3 cost average to multiply by at least a factor of ten. So I expect those original ISRG shares will be worth approximately 500 times what I originally paid. Ohhh, that is SOOOO disappointing! Gosh, I'm crushed!
As usual, someone's attacks are grossly lacking in facts.
Just in case anyone somewhere should be focused solely on spinning anything they can as negatively as possible, here are some interesting facts and reasonable inferences.
Surgeons who tested the original single port system were working with prototype hardware, nowhere near able to meet the rigorous standards set forth for medical device approvals. Everything from failsafe considerations, redundancies, and component obsolescence had to be addressed, as is the NORMAL development process for a medical device. We also got to tack on some additional modifications to ensure we met all of the new Human Factors Engineering requirements which kicked in a couple years ago (and possibly cost Trixie their second platform). So if 2000 changes seems egregious to someone, they apparently know very little about developing a medical device for this market.
Someone recently pointed out that we were getting sued by a development contractor. True. We didn't want to pay for work that we did not ask them to do. They were suing us for how much? About $5M?? If they had a leg to stand on, would they really have settled a $5M lawsuit for a mere $1M? Doubtful. It appears we just paid that to get our stuff back and to close the books on the case, as required by our new benefactors.
No timeline to FDA? Well, not that we are currently aware of. Does anyone believe that Medtronic would throw $41M at a company blindly, without having pinned down a timeline? It would be absurd for anyone with more than half a brain to think $41M didn't buy them a timeline. They know the schedule, they know the milestones, they know what they are doing. Just because they haven't told us everything yet doesn't mean they don't know. For $41M, I'm very confident they know the hows and the whens of the entire project. (This, BTW, from a guy with a Master's Degree in Operations and Project Management, who recently worked on a very successful $257M government contract, in case anyone should doubt my credentials.)
The fabrication of baseless assertions appears to be best left to others, some of whom believe themselves to be quite good at it! I try to not do that; I prefer to have some basis for everything and build logical, substantiable assertions therefrom. That is why I believe what I believe about this company and this investment. None of it is random, all of it is rooted in the pieces that we do know, and not everything I post is all sunshine about Titan - but enough of it is that I still buy more shares whenever I have the means to do so.
Exactly. Does it make sense to hire your competitor to develop your product for you? No. Again, a complete logic failure for anyone who thinks so. Would they pay us to hit milestones in developing our own system to compete with them? Again, total logical fallacy. That would be entirely stupid, and Medtronic didn't get to be such a large, successful company by doing too many stupid things. Are they putting everything into this first release? Again, a No. They are holding the lens wash system for future upgrade potential, as with haptic feedback which they had on Amadeus as early as 2011 (https://titanmedicalinc.com/titan-medical-inc-announces-testing-results-for-beta-console-early-user-study/). In case anyone should think otherwise, or think we haven't seen it yet with Titan.
And as Mike0071 just pointed out, we still own whatever tech we already owned or had developed. Anything we develop with MDT belongs exclusively to MDT. Why would we put our best effort into their device if we don't get any benefit from it? Because we DO benefit from it, financially, in a big way when the acquisition is closed and done. Otherwise, our engineers would have some good idea, but not pursue them with MDT; they could add it to SPORT/Enos' design instead. Imagine the lawsuits over THAT! That is why it is all there in black and white... but there is more black and white that we can't see yet. The only way for Medtronic to prevent such trickery is to know they are going to own it all soon enough anyway.
Medtronic has done this whole thing before, and they will do it again after they own Titan Medical. It's just a question of will we be their 64th acquisition, their 69th, maybe their 75th? They're working on two more this month alone.
I like logic.
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Nicely put 66. And why would we allow them to build a product using TMDI IP to compete with ours. I have no idea why they are doing it they way they are but theories are everywhere.
It will be interesting to see if the upcoming conference and Nasdaq listing compliance date finally gets them to provide some pps moving transparency.
I am still in the same camp as you that a BO, if it's going to happen, it's a next year event. Now does the recent JNJ news change anything? No idea:)
GL to all longs!
And we're still up 20% over the past week.
It is clearly stated in a number of press releases and articles that this agreement between Titan and Medtronic is a "development and license" agreement. Milestones are for development of OUR product. Why would they pay us to develop OUR product to compete with them? They aren't. We are developing Medtronic's single port robotic system and helping them with their larger offering, whatever that may become. There is no other viable, valid, logical explanation.
So why don't they just get on with it and finish the deal now???
HC, where did you see that F-1/A? It couldn't have been on Edgar.
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Another thing to be cognizant of IMO...is WE know the o/s count right now is somewhere north of 78M.
...
we know as of 6/19 there were 73.831M o/s with 5M (exactly) more pre-funded warrants to turn into issued common shares. F-1/A being the source. So, 78.831M o/s or slightly higher is where we are at today (pre $1 breach)
A couple questions in my head for the next day or two...
If we can perform the RARE feat of holding most of our gains during the last hour of trading, we might open tomorrow within a whisper or two of the magic $1 mark and another day like today would push us over it, once again resetting the clock for delisting. Would that be enough to keep us climbing for the rest of the week?
With the ISRG call this afternoon, could we see a pop on good sector news if they had a strong quarter? And could the opposite be true, if they got COVIDized and their numbers tanked, do we slide with them or does that maybe make us stronger if the market sees ISRG's susceptibility?
Wish I had some of those 120K orders on the books!
Roll, as always, thanks for the details from the trading side!
Truly disappointing. Web site down for over 36 hours and they couldn't even update Mr. Brar's title.
Yup, it's up... and I don't see any major changes. Makes no sense at all. We're still SPORT, not Enos, too.
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Sites up
I cannot envision Mr. McNally doing a sub-$1B fire sale when he knows they have the goods and they already are on a pathway to much bigger things. My point was mostly that it would be to Medtronic's advantage (in several way that I pointed out) if they just went ahead and wrapped up a deal sooner rather than later, while removing certain risks at the same time. Could there be some minor discount applied because they haven't cleared the last couple regulatory hurdles yet? A definite possibility. Does Mr. McNally appear to be the type of person who would settle for just a small fraction of the company's value? That's a No in my book.
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If MDT buys TMDi now, I guess that price will be under $1B. If they wait after FDA approval, the BO price will be minimum $2B.
I look at Medtronic's acquisition history and of course, focus more on Mazor than anything else, because it seems to be the most similar to Titan - surgical robotics, their halo offering (the Mazor X) was still in development... They set up milestones with Mazor, all of them were hit ahead of schedule so they obviously weren't overly aggressive. They called the whole thing a "co-development project" even though it was still really a Mazor-led development effort.
Fast forward to 2020.
Titan has something they want. Lay out a plan, milestones, etc. Call it a co-development project, or maybe don't call it that, but Medtronic watches everything we do, and Titan helps them develop their Hugo as well. Well, so far, anyway. We hit the first milestone on Day 2 of the agreement. They see things developing as they should, Chapel Hill facility is open and ramping up fast... So far so good, right? 18-24 months later, we think we know what will happen. And so does the rest of the industry.
Maybe those OTHER folks in the industry don't like what they are seeing - a path for Medtronic to jump ahead in line to the market with not just one, but TWO offerings, spanning a wider piece of the surgical market than anyone has before, especially from a price standpoint. Hugo will conceivably have a wonderful advantage slipping through the regulatory process on the heels of Enos; regardless of 510(k) or PMA for Enos, it would CLEARLY be a predicate device for Hugo by then.
What else is happening in this market space... ISRG expected to report more record earnings despite a COVID-based lull in surgery across the country. JnJ, while heading up the presumed biggest robotic program to compete with ISRG, announces a huge delay in their program, HOPING their human trials can commence in 2022 (18 to 30 months before they can begin human trials) - then what, submit data, file with FDA, wait for their approval - lucky to get approval before 2024.
Any reason any of these other organizations wouldn't want to try to scoop Titan from under the MDT agreements? And in doing so, not only take that next-in-line position with a device on the market, but also implode MDT's robotics program at the same time. I'm not saying that would happen, but just to put all possibilities on the table here.
Switching gears, Mr. Martha states his legacy for Medtronic will be acquisitions. We all know about Mazor, Titan Spine, Digital Surgery, Covidien of course... This month alone, they bid for Intersect ENT and Medicrea! Plus, all in the past 18 months, there's Stimgenics, Epix Therapeutics, Klue, AV Medical, Orpheus Medical... All these deals were quick Hit'n'Run deals; no milestones, no "let's see how this plays out first" agreements. Lately, their acquisition model has been as instantaneous as possible. Smaller potatoes, sure... likely that's why. Different business model for all acquisitions? Mr. Martha maybe didn't like dragging the Mazor deal out for two years? I don't know.
So now let's tie a few things together...
Medtronic is working closely with us, sees what we are doing, already confident we will hit the milestones and deliver. Any point in waiting, or... MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
Other competitors could be plotting a challenge for Titan's technology and were generously granted up to a two year window to execute their nefarious plans. Acquisition by JnJ, ISRG, hell, anyone else, would ultimately cost Medtronic Billion$$ in lost revenue due to schedule delays building Hugo on their own, and losing the ability to offer our sleek technology in multiple product offerings. How could Medtronic prevent this possibility? MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
How can they best ensure a smooth first-pass regulatory approval for Hugo, possibly saving another 6 to 12 months of revising, re-testing, and re-filing because they lost their predicate device to a competitor? MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
How can Medtronic prove that their more recent acquisition strategy of "instant gratification" works well for larger, more complex business acquisitions? MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
Does this phrase look familiar to anyone?
"Error establishing a database connection"
It should, to anyone trying to get onto Titan's web site. It appears to have gone down late yesterday afternoon or early yesterday evening. A simple IT upgrade should be completed in no time at all. New web site with updates? That would get developed on the side, then cut in to Go Live with the click of a mouse. Hardware crash? 30 minutes to copy the backup to a new server, and we're live again. Such an extended communications blackout? In this day and age? From a high tech company, no less? This is starting to look like a mandatory comms blackout, maybe anywhere from 24 to 72 hours. Why would such a communications blackout happen? Just possibly... MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
Okay, I have put forth a number of reasons that substantiate a possibility, however slim, that the powers that be might have decided not to wait. Do I really think that is what is happening right now? No, not really... Well, Friday I would have figured, IMHO, maybe a 2 to 3% chance we could see something out of the blue like an acquisition announcement this week. Given today's blackout and the number of different reasons an immediate acquisition actually does make sense, I'm starting to go to the 20-25% range. So in my mind, 75 to 80% chance that nothing new is really happening and everything including the Titan Medical web site will be back to "normal" in a day or three. But if not, I think I just laid out a few good reasons for... MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
(Gosh, that was fun writing this... and wouldn't it be a hoot and a half???)
Nice volume so far! Hope that keep up as well!
Web site development occurs off line. Everything gets developed, hopefully reviewed and tested, then they copy it over and make it "go live". This is something different. But I don't know what. There may be changes happening to the web site but it shouldn't have to be taken down completely...
I have two take-aways from today's activity.
1. We have the ability to run up quickly, without any substantial notice (whether sector driven, PR driven, or just because some people are waking up to us...)
2. We need to run more than 10% to wrest control away from the shorters, market makers, and/or whomever else is trying to keep us artificially suppressed.
It will happen!
Y'all have an awesome weekend!
Inflation alone should put us over $2B if all else was equal.
Considering all other factors - complexity, world class IP program, 140 patents issued and pending, a much larger potential market, and technology that can bail out their floundering robotics program.
Yeah, I think the question isn't if we are worth $2B to them; the question is what factor do we multiple $2B by??
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I agree that TITAN is in a better development stage than MAZOR when MEDTRONIC paid $1.64 BILLION for MAZOR.
We should see Minimum $2 BILLION.
So we're up a nickel at the moment! Thanks for the good news! I knew you'd come around eventually.
And actually, last check said .84 so... Even better!
Thanks again!
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SPORT19 Friday, 07/17/20 02:37:33 PM
Re: Adrock post# 110577 0
Post # 110595 of 110595
.83
Manipulation of a stock price is activity to drop the price. Any motion the other way is accretive, not manipulative!
Accretion! Accretion! Yaaahh, Accretion!
HC, feel free to drop a couple percent more. If you sell 2% of your holdings and the remainder go up 10%, the overall effect is... Accretion! And some nice coin in everyone's pockets. Except for those who sold early. Whomever they may be. I'm not calling anyone out but I'm guessing that at least 19 people have sold earlier than they should have. Maybe even 20 people. But at least 19.
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Is there a reason to do a raise right now? If the stock can be "manipulated " to satisfy listing requirements then can't the stock be "manipulated" get the SP into the warrant money? Honest question.
We hit .87 so far today!
Would love to reset that NASDAQ timer again today!
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Apparently it ain’t easy building a surgical robot...
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/jj-drops-planned-510k-for-verb-auris-robot-targets-2022-clinical-trial/581809/
MDT sees the value in TMDI. We going much, much higher.
Pops is stoked!
Giddy up!
livendi, I see a bidding war as a possibility but only very slight. If Medtronic is relying on Titan's IP, especially for their own subsequent offering (new Hugo), they wouldn't likely allow any risk to the IP. So to ShortsRClowns' point, this acquisition needs to be wrapped up long before any licensing deals could expire.
Did anyone see any time limits on the licensing deals?
That Mass Device article is rather dated at this point; lots of changes since then. Here's a sampling for your perusal.
Some great stuff in here as it could apply to Titan...
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/medtronic-earnings-call-coronavirus-updates/578498/
But Hugo is delayed; as of May they could not piece a new timeline together.
This next one shows original Hugo was planned for sale in 2022, but is delayed. It also indicates Titan tech to be used in Hugo, which is new news... Means Hugo IS being re-designed with our tech, so the 2022 release could easily be moved to 2024, and therefore they need Enos ASAP to get in the market. And it is SO convenient that they have COVID to blame for their need to re-design Hugo with our tech. No judgment here... I don't blame them!
https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/deals-analysis/medtronic-titan/
Further evidence their earlier plans were more aggressive:
https://vfrsi.vattikutifoundation.com/medtronic-hugo-
This one is funny, Titan pays Medtronic $10M??? They got it backwards!
https://www.therobotreport.com/titan-medica-medtronic-sign-surgical-robotics-development-agreements/
CMR's is another MegaBot; multi-pod floor hog. No worries here as far as competition for Titan (or Enos, for whoever markets it).
https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/features/da-vinci-surgical-robot-competitors/
Lots happening! It all looks GREAT for Titan and its shareholders!
Whats funny is all the recent articles I found, none of them say anything bad about Titan or our NASDAQ status or our Management team... Just nothing bad! So if you do hear bad things about Titan, ask for published references and you probably won't get them.
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This is what I was saying.....
Maybe clinical trials won't be around Chapel Hill.They will ship robots to India for human trials.Shh......
Medtronic plans to launch the Hugo system in undisclosed places outside the U.S. early the next year, allowing the company to start gathering clinical data, White said. CE Mark and U.S. IDE submissions will follow later in the year, with a goal of achieving U.S. 510(k) clearance in about two years.
https://www.massdevice.com/medtronic-finally-unveils-its-new-robot-assisted-surgery-system/
They had software, and they have software. But now they probably also need to be able to integrate their software with the Digital Surgery package. I'm sure the co-development project with Medtronic will also be compatible with it right out of the gate; there was no need for us to be compatible last year but... things change!
Should be fairly easy overall... format data to be compatible with their database field formats, proper message headers, field sizes, etc. Database and communications interface code, maybe bluetooth or WiFi support to reduce cabling requirements, which suck more in an OR where if cables hit a bloody floor... Well, everything needs thorough decontamination between every case any way.
The GLP (Good Laboratory Practices) studies help ensure validity and quality of the subsequent trials and the data generated therefrom.
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how did they start GPL studies without software?
A little more info to tie timelines together... From last July's Shareholder's letter:
https://titanmedicalinc.com/letter-to-shareholders/
Highlights from a schedule perspective:
June 2019, they started GLP studies to support the IDE submission (animal and cadaver studies)
GLP studies completed July 2019 with IDE submission to occur shortly thereafter.
Human Trials were expected to be completed, with patient follow-ups and subsequent 510(k) submission as early as December 2019.
So on their first run through the scheduling process last year, they were looking at as little as 6 months from starting GLP procedures to filing the 510(k). Allow up to 6 months for FDA approval. 12 months from start of GLP to FDA approval.
They planned to set up the dry lab for surgeon training at Chapel Hill; that is now underway.
So if we finish software development by end of this year (should be fairly easy for a competent development team) we have a basis for a timeline.
Since it looks like one of the milestones was to be around late October, maybe THAT is the milestone - software done and GLP studies begin. That could conceivably put FDA approval in early Gregorian Q4 next year. Acquisition completed by Christmas 2021! Then REALLY HAPPY NEW YEAR!
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I AM LOOKING FOR IDE...
TIMELY - STORM
So much paytience !!!
OTB
I'm just catching up after lunch... A couple observations:
Bidding war, I agree, is unlikely. Fair value is the norm for Medtronic acquisitions. Ask folks at $48B Covidien and $1.7B Mazor. They are not unhappy people.
As for the ADDITIONAL $41M...
We got the $1.5M up front. We got another $18M from Steven Blow Ventures. Okay, then we could say "...and we will get an ADDITIONAL $41M from Medtronic." Did the check already clear for the first $10M payment from that? Not sure. But we're not broke now.
As for Hugo and Enos timelines... one can only guess at this point. Enos is probably 98% completed for hardware, and software needs tie-ins to Digital Surgery to integrate fully into MDT's stable. Maybe add some additional logging code and more redundancy; pretty straight-forward stuff for software development.
Let's say we are ready again for IDE (which was already prepared) approval and clinical trials, maybe January/February time frame-ish. Submit PMA to FDA around April/May, Approved device in 6 months, around October/November (which allows for FDA-requested clarifications and additional data for an expedited application), and looking at Mazor X, that would be the time to announce the acquisition.
Hugo, that's another story. Maybe they have been in a deep skunkworks mode since the initial debut in September and will surprise everyone with something sleek. The initial debut of the capstone for their next big program should have been received with accolades and a 3 to 5% bump in share price. Instead, they were mocked for the space requirements and lost a couple bucks off PPS the next day. I once likened it to the Homer, the car by Powell Motor Co. in the Simpsons, wondering aloud if Hugo had a horn that played La Cucaracha. Their next step had better be the anti-Hugo to be received well by the market. And since Titan's tech is small, sleek, and capable, it meets the anti-Hugo definition to a T. A great starting point to get into the marketplace with Enos as is, and use it as a starting point for developing a larger, more robust system to replace Hugo.
I'll use one more Simpsons reference, prefacing it with Bart's evil twin brother... anyone remember HIS name? Of course... Hugo! So if Hugo is the evil child that is kept in the attic and fed fishheads, Medtronic's next iteration of a capstone system should be named Bart! (And for the other Simpsonites out there, yes, I do recall which was really the evil one!)
In any event, I don't foresee any overlap in regulatory approval timelines for a couple reasons. Enos is really close to ready, "Bart" is not. And Enos will be a predicate device for "Bart" due to shared technologies, making approval much quicker and easier for MDT's eventuality as a follow-on to Enos. Also, Titan will be tasked with pushing Enos through regulatory approval, so Mr. Jensen will rise to the occasion for us and in doing so, clear a much easier path for "Bart" later.
All just my own suppositions, but I believe things could play out much as described above. Except Bart. They won't name it Bart, nor Boaty McBoatface. Enos could indeed be an acronym for Enabled Natural Orifice Surgery, but Hugo??? Huge Ugly Gigantic... nah, that's not it. And I don't recommend Snake Armed Robotic Surgery (SARS) either. Any suggestions? Just for fun, of course.
Hey, wait... Bi-lateral Armed Robotic Thing (BART). Nah.
To clarify further:
https://titanmedicalinc.com/titan-medical-strengthens-robotic-surgery-u-s-patent-portfolio-with-grant-for-surgical-imaging-technology/
The 2D camera is integrated into the insertion tube with a redundant light source. This allows visualization of the work space as the insertion tube is initially deployed so that the subsequent insertion of 3D camera (with its own light source) and snake arms can be seen on screen as they are inserted. The 2D camera also serves as a failsafe system; in the event of a 3D camera failure, the 2D camera still provides sufficient visualization to complete the procedure without converting to open surgery. Lastly, the 2D camera maintains visualization during 3D camera lens cleaning, which (I have been told) happens every ten to fifteen minutes with ISRG's current offerings. I believe our camera wash system patent was approved but the last I heard, it isn't expected to be implemented in this initial release of the robot. Upgrades = $$$!
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I can tell you it is BOTH in terms of cameras...The 3D one is steerable goes into the insertion tube...the 2D one is a camera that is always on so the Docs never lose sight of where they are or if they don't need the other one.
I look at the presentation and notice the same image on the viewing screen, with the two snake arms posed, and all I can think is that the new name shouldn't be Enos, it should be "Class M3 Model B9 General Utility Non-Theorizing Environmental Control Robot, also known simply as the M3-B9 G.U.N.T.E.R." B-9 for short. As in Benign, no less.
To carry this theme further, we could add vessel nick detection, so if the surgeon accidentally cuts an artery, the control module can sound the alarm thusly: "Danger! Will Robinson!"
(I always thought the snake arms reminded me of the robot on "Lost In Space" - Many or possibly most of you might be too young to remember this)
Bingo!!! We have a winner!!!
Someone gets it...
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I would not mind if we dropped a bit more.
I could use another block. Either way is fine by me. It’s not about today.
Posi, keep the faith, Bro! It isn't about PPS right now. PPS right now is just a toy for gamers to make "short" term profits a little bit at a time. Those of us in it for the long haul will get our reward in due time. You will find that management knows what the tech is worth, and Medtronic knows what it is worth and doesn't want competition to take it, so their offer will need to be a fair value offer. I can't imagine this going for less that $3B, which (if that's all we get) puts about a million dollars in your pockets. (I'm thinking more in the $5B-$8B range but I'd love $10B!)
Mazor milestones were hit ahead of schedule; their last milestone had a 1 year window, and when it was hit, the buyout happened. Our next milestone is October; if our last milestone is in a 1 year window, we could be looking at Gregorian calendar Q4 next year.
Don't let the clowns of any type here get you down. Hell, a month later they still can't find Steven Blow Ventures 13G on the Titan web site! (It's not Joe Blow.)
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This company is a joke. Even with the Medtronic deal its tanking. It will take a miracle to raise the pps
RollGard,
I'm not so sure about the RTG umbrella. RTG is their Restorative Therapies Group. Spine surgery is intended to restore pain-free functionality to a patient, hence a good fit with restorative therapies. Hysterectomies, Prostatectomies, etc are just the opposite; they eliminate the pertinent body parts, not restore. I would anticipate that as they further develop their overall robotics program, it may become its own group - unless for some reason they have been developing Hugo under the RTG umbrella as well (I do not know... but it would seem to be counterintuitive).
On a separate note, I would suggest that we are not likely to see Joe Blow LLC or Joe Blow Ventures as our investor. I would be guessing something more formal sounding, like Steven Blow Ventures. Just a guess. I'm not claiming to know anything; I just can't see Joe dumping millions of dollars into this. But maybe Steven.
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OR Nurse.........
I have looked at 30 filings on MDT/MZOR,TITAN SPINE,DIGITAL SURGERY etc..and looking at them all it is hidden mostly in MDT's fiscal year summaries as to reference to which division,branch,arm,new division,etc actually had different holding companies under this umbrella prior to announcing any MDT direct purchasing.
Another words, if Joe Blow LLC took the offering,one would then have to connect all the dots to see who Joe Blow is holding for.And if it is the first time say MDT ever used Joe Blow,then chances are the seeker of information is still left in the dark.
So,I like the assumption of "how did MDT do things in the previous Buyouts"..Then a factual pattern appears.RTG is still the big robotics purchaser for MDT.
It's suppose to be hidden as we all know.On purpose no doubt.
Thanks Roll
Cooler yet, imagine using an adapted version of our own snake arms on the assembly line to automate the build process! Enoses building more Enoses!
The light blue/dark blue combo really isn't anything that groundbreaking in logo design. Paired with black, white, or gray, still very common.
Anyone care to guess what colors are in the Trixie logo? Light blue and dark blue. That doesn't mean anybody is buying them. If there was a large med device conglomerate with ANY colored logo who had entered into a co-development agreement which also spots them tens of millions dollars, I'd be thinking acquisition was in their future.
In terms of calculating odds that logo colors would match, one needs to determine which color scale to use; e.g. ROY G BIV (with black and white gives only 9 options) vs Pantone and its 1867 different colors, or any of dozens of other possible scale selections. Then we must determine tolerance of the match (how close is close enough to call it a match).
Also, let's look back at Titan's prior logo. Any guesses? If you guessed other than light blue and dark blue, you're wrong. A little darker than the current combo, but blue represents calmness and trustworthiness, so it remains a very popular choice in logo design.
Logo colors are a very minor coincidence and certainly no basis for a multi-billion dollar business transaction. And I expect that once this deal concludes, Titan and its logo are likely to go away completely because they will not have had any substantial prior sales to support like Mazor and Covidien. And it would be a better business move to absorb Titan into another existing MDT-owned brand for all their surgical robotics; Hugo won't be a Titan product, and there would be additional confusion with the MDT-owned Titan Spine (which did not have a blue logo!).
Agreed; Mr. Genova has his assignment and is running with it. And Medtronic isn't playing games with anyone. They never do.
If anything, the monstrosity that is Hugo has proven that there is no viable alternative to create another player in the robotic surgery field. Trixie has had the multi-pod floor-hogging design available to the market and reception has been extremely poor. My belief is that there will be a new Hugo, whether single port or multi-port (or dual-port; I will explain). It will use some of Titan's IP to be a much more sleek design. Maybe it will be some variant such as four arms, each pair via a duplicate of Titan's single port; by allowing two entry points and four arms, it would allow for a much wider range of motion based on the separation of the two entry points. Meanwhile, Titan's current design which is nearly complete will get their (MDT's) initial foothold in the marketplace, and the "double-Enos" (or some other version of Medtronic's own flavoring) can follow when it is complete.
I don't think it's a matter of Enos rivaling Hugo; I think it is a co-development project in that Enos needs to get to market as quickly as possible to establish that foothold, and ongoing development for the bigger system can proceed using Titan's IP for putting Hugo on a major diet!
The value of Titan goes well beyond Enos because the IP will likely be the basis for a multi-tiered offering for their eventual product line. Just my guess. We should know by the end of next year when Enos gets approved and the trimmed-down Hugo is re-debuted.
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The mazor deal was valued at 22 x earnings. Mdts ceo mentioned conservative estimates for hugo is to grow the MITG rev by 2 to 2.5%. RTGs annual rev was 8.4b. If we think sport can rival hugo in terms of potential rev then that puts a 4.6B price tag on us. I dont think mdt is playing games with titan. They want to take market share from the competition and are prepared to invest towards that goal. They spent 2.3B on R and D last year. All titan has to do is let genova do his job and move development forwards.
Yeah, I guess you're right Mag... Same thing every year, never ending loop. Remember back in 2017 when Medtronic partnered with us? Or could it be that this is no longer a never ending loop?
I'm not saying PPS shoots upward on any specific day, and I think the short volumes have proven we still have a long way to go to break out of their grip - that seems like the never-ending loop to me. But if you are going to ride peoples' asses for their optimism, you have to expect others to ride yours for your pessimism.
This is a much different era for Titan than 10 years ago, or ten weeks ago. The past ten years are no longer applicable to our current situation.
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"Last chance under .80"
Ok sure it is.. you must be new or habe forgotten the past 10 yrs.
Why even post that just to be wrong the next day.. same charachters here stuck in a never ending loop
Not necessarily an apples to apples comparison because they are not only different markets, but also at far different stages of life cycle model. But still a reasonable starting point for estimation purposes, so I will run with your suggestion and put actual numbers to it.
ISRG system sales comprise a combination of new customers and replacement and additional systems for their existing customer base; I have no idea what the balance is. Mazor X sales are not likely to be replacements yet; at least I would hope the system lasts more than two years before requiring replacement!
In any event, the most updated sales figures I could find from which I could infer a correlation was 2019 Q4. Articles I saw show sales of 26 Mazor X systems in Q4 vs. ISRG sales of 336 systems in the same period. That is almost a factor of 13. To extrapolate further on this basis alone given the inflation-adjusted $2B that MDT paid for Mazor, they should be willing to go as high as $26B (13 x $2B)for Titan. More realistically, I would suggest that over a 3 to 5 year time span, Medtronic would likely be trying to capture some percentage of that 336 system per quarter market. Given ISRG's strong foot hold and the arrival of additional imminent competition, maybe 20 to 25% would be a reasonable target, especially in light of ISRG's reputation of being ISRG (not always easy to deal with). So maybe 35% in 5 years is a reasonable target. How about a third of that 13x figure, so around $4.5B for Titan?
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Market for a soft tissue robot, compared to spine & Neuro is exponentially higher, much much higher. Medtronic knows this as they can simply compare the number of Mazor units sold compared to ISRG
So a guy like Mr. Barker plunks down a measly $3k on shares (note also that he just paid almost a 50% premium on them). Imagine the paperwork a Director has to do for such a small purchase, time consuming. Add the time factor plus the premium he paid for them, and the only logical conclusion is that this guy knows these 3000 shares are going to be worth more than enough to make it well worth his while, after the premium, after taxes, after the time invested...
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Insider buying continues with Barker buying another 3000 at $1.08.
Mazor deal started four years before our deal started, so today's equivalent is over $2B, but Titan is developing a much more versatile system with MUCH wider applicability. What is the overall market for spine surgery compared to general abdominal surgery? A factor of 4? 5? Ten??
So what should Titan be worth to them if they paid $2B in today's dollars for a limited capability system?
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That MAZOR deal had the shareholders getting something but the Value of the deal was $1.64 Billon. I don't believe TITAN is looking for anything LESS!
I posted this list of links before, but I will re-post the content here (instead of making folks chase these links through my older post). This time I will add pertinent highlights from each Mazor press release so you can see what we might be looking at if the Mazor deal is the model for ours, since this apparently is Medtronic's acquisition method.
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=128
May 2016, first PR, a co-development agreement and initial equity investment ($11.9M); milestones due end of 2017, 2 more tranches available with milestones met.
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=133
Aug 2016, first milestone met in July so second tranche of $20M paid.
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=149
Aug 2017, entering third phase of agreement early, third tranche of $40M paid, Medtronic assumes exclusive distribution of Mazor X system (Mazor's halo product) - still no public mention of acquisition but Mazor can't even sell the Mazor X system any more - not hard to know where this is going by now!
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=151
Sept 2017, third tranche closed (the $40M above) plus MDT bought an additional 1.21M warrants (ADSs, actually - same difference) at a 15% premium over current share price.
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=170
Sept 2018, acquisition announced, expected to close Jan 2019.
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/2018-11-19-Mazor-Robotics-Shareholders-Approve-Merger-Agreement-With-Medtronic
shareholders approve "merger" with 95% of votes cast in favor.
This last one is the last post under the old Mazor robotics web site; after that... they were Medtronic!
If our deal was a one shot deal for our tech, it would be done; there would be no tranches for upcoming milestones, they wouldn't give a freak about what we do with their money afterwards. The only reason we have to meet milestones is because it is a co-development effort whereby we are developing their single port offering for them to market after, and possibly even before, the acquisition closes.
The transfer of licensed rights to our patent portfolio is to have their (MDT's) ducks in a row legally and own the rights to the technology by the time they start to market the device. If someone wants a real project for full confirmation, they can start digging through patent websites to see if they can find similar IP transition documents for the Mazor/MDT deal; in my mind that would take this from 97% sure to 99.9% sure that this is exactly what is going on. Pretty strong odds no matter what.
In the first PR, they describe the three tranches and the third tranche is called a "potential third tranche" which hints that they wanted the option to complete the acquisition early. I'd be okay with that, too.
MDT set very achievable milestones with Mazor to ensure they could be met, and hence they were all met early and agreements were modified accordingly to speed up the acquisition. Our first milestone had a four month window and we hit it in two days. Our next milestone is due in October; I'm betting we hit it late August - maybe mid-September at the latest.
Folks, this is the highway that Medtronic has paved and they've driven this highway before. They know what they're doing, and if anyone can't see it with this step-by-step Medtronic Acquisition Guide laid out for them, then they have an ulterior motive.
The deal closes in December 2018. 19 months start to finish from a PR standpoint, but again, there had to be some prep work in advance that both parties were involved in; I still figure the Titan/MDT deal has been in the works since late January/early February.
Shareholder letter is out!
They have funding for a year. That's a full year to get warrants in the money in which case they can get this project to the finish line without more dilution!