I look at Medtronic's acquisition history and of course, focus more on Mazor than anything else, because it seems to be the most similar to Titan - surgical robotics, their halo offering (the Mazor X) was still in development... They set up milestones with Mazor, all of them were hit ahead of schedule so they obviously weren't overly aggressive. They called the whole thing a "co-development project" even though it was still really a Mazor-led development effort.
Fast forward to 2020.
Titan has something they want. Lay out a plan, milestones, etc. Call it a co-development project, or maybe don't call it that, but Medtronic watches everything we do, and Titan helps them develop their Hugo as well. Well, so far, anyway. We hit the first milestone on Day 2 of the agreement. They see things developing as they should, Chapel Hill facility is open and ramping up fast... So far so good, right? 18-24 months later, we think we know what will happen. And so does the rest of the industry.
Maybe those OTHER folks in the industry don't like what they are seeing - a path for Medtronic to jump ahead in line to the market with not just one, but TWO offerings, spanning a wider piece of the surgical market than anyone has before, especially from a price standpoint. Hugo will conceivably have a wonderful advantage slipping through the regulatory process on the heels of Enos; regardless of 510(k) or PMA for Enos, it would CLEARLY be a predicate device for Hugo by then.
What else is happening in this market space... ISRG expected to report more record earnings despite a COVID-based lull in surgery across the country. JnJ, while heading up the presumed biggest robotic program to compete with ISRG, announces a huge delay in their program, HOPING their human trials can commence in 2022 (18 to 30 months before they can begin human trials) - then what, submit data, file with FDA, wait for their approval - lucky to get approval before 2024.
Any reason any of these other organizations wouldn't want to try to scoop Titan from under the MDT agreements? And in doing so, not only take that next-in-line position with a device on the market, but also implode MDT's robotics program at the same time. I'm not saying that would happen, but just to put all possibilities on the table here.
Switching gears, Mr. Martha states his legacy for Medtronic will be acquisitions. We all know about Mazor, Titan Spine, Digital Surgery, Covidien of course... This month alone, they bid for Intersect ENT and Medicrea! Plus, all in the past 18 months, there's Stimgenics, Epix Therapeutics, Klue, AV Medical, Orpheus Medical... All these deals were quick Hit'n'Run deals; no milestones, no "let's see how this plays out first" agreements. Lately, their acquisition model has been as instantaneous as possible. Smaller potatoes, sure... likely that's why. Different business model for all acquisitions? Mr. Martha maybe didn't like dragging the Mazor deal out for two years? I don't know.
So now let's tie a few things together...
Medtronic is working closely with us, sees what we are doing, already confident we will hit the milestones and deliver. Any point in waiting, or... MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
Other competitors could be plotting a challenge for Titan's technology and were generously granted up to a two year window to execute their nefarious plans. Acquisition by JnJ, ISRG, hell, anyone else, would ultimately cost Medtronic Billion$$ in lost revenue due to schedule delays building Hugo on their own, and losing the ability to offer our sleek technology in multiple product offerings. How could Medtronic prevent this possibility? MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
How can they best ensure a smooth first-pass regulatory approval for Hugo, possibly saving another 6 to 12 months of revising, re-testing, and re-filing because they lost their predicate device to a competitor? MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
How can Medtronic prove that their more recent acquisition strategy of "instant gratification" works well for larger, more complex business acquisitions? MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
Does this phrase look familiar to anyone?
"Error establishing a database connection"
It should, to anyone trying to get onto Titan's web site. It appears to have gone down late yesterday afternoon or early yesterday evening. A simple IT upgrade should be completed in no time at all. New web site with updates? That would get developed on the side, then cut in to Go Live with the click of a mouse. Hardware crash? 30 minutes to copy the backup to a new server, and we're live again. Such an extended communications blackout? In this day and age? From a high tech company, no less? This is starting to look like a mandatory comms blackout, maybe anywhere from 24 to 72 hours. Why would such a communications blackout happen? Just possibly... MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
Okay, I have put forth a number of reasons that substantiate a possibility, however slim, that the powers that be might have decided not to wait. Do I really think that is what is happening right now? No, not really... Well, Friday I would have figured, IMHO, maybe a 2 to 3% chance we could see something out of the blue like an acquisition announcement this week. Given today's blackout and the number of different reasons an immediate acquisition actually does make sense, I'm starting to go to the 20-25% range. So in my mind, 75 to 80% chance that nothing new is really happening and everything including the Titan Medical web site will be back to "normal" in a day or three. But if not, I think I just laid out a few good reasons for... MEDTRONIC BUYS US NOW!
(Gosh, that was fun writing this... and wouldn't it be a hoot and a half???)
