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Don Coxe Fund
I hear Coxe has a fund out in Canada that trades under the ticker COX.A on the Toronto. Does anyone have a list of what stocks are inside the fund. It would be really interesting to see what Jr's might be in there if any.
Anyone know???
Thanks,
Kipp
TARM Stock Registration Info
I saw this message on the board “IMPORTANT TO ALL SHAREHOLDERS OF TARA MINERALS Contact TM's IR Warren Drew 406-8440322 re instructions as to how to get your share certificates altered so that they can be traded on the exchange.
This must be done as the original shares MUST have the "legend" changed to be accepted by Brokers for trading.”
I called Warren D. and he told me to mail the certificates and a check for $50 to: Corporate Stock Transfer, 3200 Cherry Creek Dr. South, Suite 400, Denver, CO, 80209
Attention Karen Naughton. 303-282-4800.
I live in the Denver burbs, seeing the Denver address, I picked up the phone and talked to Karen. There is a form that needs to accompany the original certificate ( the form is available at www.corporatestock.com ) and a $50 fee that can be paid by check. She said it is usually a 2 day process and then returned via certified mail to whatever address you put on the form.
****I drove down, met with Karen, filled out the form, wrote a check for $50, and she said I could pick up the new certificate tomorrow afternoon. Took all of 5 minutes.
Good Luck.
Kipp
Jang-A-Lang
It hits home doesn't it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/78439-a-run-on-central-banks?source=side_bar_editors_picks
Kipp
Here is the link to the blog from my post. I should have put it in quotes. It is spot on.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/78439-a-run-on-central-banks?source=side_bar_editors_picks
Kipp
Why I am in commodities - sad but true.
When I see what commodity prices are doing, I don't think "low interest rates" or "skyrocketing demand." I think about a loss of confidence.
There is that old saw about gold, that it is the only money that is no one's liability. Wheat is no one's liability, and neither is corn. Oil is no one's liability.
It is common to invest in commodities as an "inflation hedge." If the central bank prints too much money, you need wheelbarrows to buy bread. If you have a sack of wheat, you will have your bread whatever the central bank does. But if everyone buys wheat, the price of grains will rise, even if the central bank does nothing at all.
Just as the fear of a bank's insolvency can precipitate a run that drives a bank to ruin, loss of confidence in a central bank can provoke a great inflation. The Federal Reserve, much as I might criticize it, has not gone on a printing spree. It has lowered interest rates, and altered the composition of bank assets by replacing less liquid with more liquid securities. But the most these measures should do is bring us back, monetarily speaking, to the status quo ante, back to a year ago when asset-backed securities were liquid. The Fed's actions are best described as antideflationary, not inflationary.
But confidence is a funny thing. Central bankers are supposed to be dour and dependable. The current crop is not. Rather than "taking away the punchbowl", central bankers have become the life of the party. Japan's central bankers hand out Yen like free acid. China's guy will give you a microwave oven and a DVD player if you draw him a picture (and sign Henry Paulson's name to it). Our man Ben is an Amadeus-cum-McGyver, he's brilliant, unpredictable, he'll improvise a Delaware company from paper clips and vacuum up your derivative book with a toenail clipper. Even the ECB's Trichet, who at first comes off like a sourpuss, turns out to be all right, when you've got some Spanish mortgages to pawn.
Some of us think that something's wrong, and these guys we're drinking with aren't serious enough to fix it. We know that trillions of dollars in presumed housing wealth have disappeared, but we don't know who's ultimately going to bear the loss. Americans know that as a nation, we cannot afford our clothes, furniture, or gas, unless the people who are selling it to us lend us our money back. Economists fret about "imbalance" and "adjustment", but we've yet to see a serious plan, other than let's-keep-this-party-going.
So, we lose faith. When we lost faith in Northern Rock, Bear Stearns (BS), Citigroup (C), or Lehman (LEH), the central bankers stepped into the fray, and stood behind them. So, we ask, who stands behind the central bankers? We take a peek, and all we see is our own money. Which we quickly start exchanging for something else.
Although commodity prices have been increasing for years, you'll notice that the very sharp run-up began last summer, at roughly the same time as the credit crisis. Commodities soared when interest rates were still high, but predicted to fall. Commodities are soaring today, even though US interest rates are now predicted to rise. Commodities have soared in euro terms, despite the ECB's refusal to drop interest rates.
I can't tell you where the inventories are, except to wonder why anyone would put them where they would be counted. Hoarders tend to get nervous, and not advertise their hoards. (But this is pretty obvious.) Perhaps producers of storable commodities who lose faith in paper quietly hold back production. Interestingly, people who no longer trust the very core of the financial system remain comfortable with collateralized, centrally-cleared futures exchanges. These are well designed to manage credit risk, but they can default, have defaulted, and will default in extremis. I heartily endorse Cassandra's suggestion that they step up their margin requirements, ASAP.
None of this is any good at all. Capital devoted to precautionary storage would be better employed building new enterprises, laying a foundation for tomorrow's prosperity. But claims on future money are only promises, easily broken or devalued. A run on central banks, a flight from financial assets to stored goods, sacrifices the hope of future abundance for certain present scarcity. Governments can shut futures exchanges, confiscate gold, ban "hoarding, profiteering, and price-gouging".
People will hoard anyway if they don't believe in the paper. People are losing faith in financial assets for good reason. Rather than organizing productive economies, the machinery of finance has recently functioned as an anesthetic, masking the pain while resources were mismanaged and stolen. We need a solid financial system, but confidence cannot be imposed or legislated. It will have to be earned. There has to be a plan. Earnest promises to do better soon won't suffice. Nor will yet another drink from the punch bowl.
cl001 - Where do you think the hot money coming out of oil will go? I am holding POE, PXX, AOS, PBG, and a small amount of a few others.
I am looking at copper after thinking about all of the problems with current production, country risk of new projects (Congo, Kazakstan, even Chile having issues). FMA.TO is a good Canadian bet. What about MOL.TO, a ways off but lots of Moly/Copper. Canadian listed silver miners working in Mexico are some of the most hated stocks in the market. FR.TO, GPR.TO, SST.V, And most hated of all AUN.V are stocks I own and have added more of in the past 2 weeks.
Fertilizer stocks are consolidating monster gains. I think they will run again in the Fall.
Just thinking out loud.
Kipp
I am a TM PP holder. I will post here when I get something in the mail.
Kipp
cl001 - POE, are you still in through earnings? I am holding it for the longer term.
Kipp
arnie - I have noticed you find some good stocks early. Keep posting them and we will keep buying them!
Good Luck!
Kipp
New AOS.V presentation worth a look. WARNING - your calculator doesn't have enough zeros to calculate the value of the 2.5 billion barrels currently valued at $.04/bbl vs. todays oil price north of $130.00/bbl
http://www.aboilsands.ca/investor/presentation.html
Molding my way up.
Kipp
Canadian Oil Sands Bouncing Hard Off Bottom!
AOS
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?AOS.V
PXX
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?PXX.V
These could be multi-baggers on a re-test of previous highs.
Kipp
Canadian dollar breaking out!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CADUSD=X#chart1:symbol=cadusd=x;range=ytd;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
This is a chart of the Canadian$ vs USD$
I have seen a 3.5% increase in my account in the past few days on currency appreviation alone.
It will be interesting to see if we get back to $1.10 this year.
Kipp
US Dollar on the brink.
Here is a link to the site I use to track the dollar. We are only about $.30 from breaking back down below the 50 day average. If we break below the $71.70ish mark, the dollar is in even bigger trouble. If we get into the $.60's all heck will break loose.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i&w=15&t=c&a=2
Oil/Gas, Agriculture, Gold/Silver, Copper/Base Metals continue to be the best way to protect ourselves from inflation and the ever lower dollar. I am also a big fan of the Canadian dollar.
Canadian listed stocks also offer some protection from the profits tax talk.
The Canadian oil sands stocks and Jr mining stocks have been some of the most hated over the past 6 months. If you look at the charts many of them are exploding off of oversold bottoms.
Let's protect our hard earned cash!
Kipp
.<font color=green>YES cl001 GREEN PORTFOLIO TODAY!
cl001 - AOS
I have 40k shares of AOS. I keep hearing Don Coxe and "large reserves, still in the ground, in politically safe countries" over and over in my head. AOS has billions of barrels of heavy oil in reserves. The currend valuation of those barrels in right around 5 cents, yes $.05, per barrel. I am hoping for 5-10 bagger on this in the near future, 12-18 months.
Kipp
POE.V - I hope they don't sell too soon or for too little $.
AEZ - Press Release and 18% pop
http://biz.yahoo.com/zacks/080519/12803.html?.v=1
Zacks.com
Let American Oil & Gas Pay You
Monday May 19, 12:15 pm ET
By Sheraz Mian
We are reiterating our Buy rating on American Oil and Gas (AMEX: AEZ - News) shares and increasing our target price from $8.00 to $9.00 per share. Although recent results were on the weaker side, our overall positive view of the AEZ story remains unchanged.
After booking reserves from the three Fetter Field wells it drilled in 2007 as a result of its partnership with Halliburton-backed RTA, we feel that the Fetter Field's risk profile has meaningfully improved. Even with our conservative risked reserve assumptions we feel that AEZ is undervalued at current levels. We see significant reserve and production growth going forward.
We use an NAV [net asset value] calculation to value American Oil & Gas. The company has three unique development opportunities, each with a different return potential. We believe that our NAV calculation conveys the return potential of these prospects and properly discounts for drilling costs, LOE expenses, G&A, and future taxes. In our view, the NAV calculation based on our commodity-price deck is a conservative valuation approach. Contrary to general street practice and the requirements of the SEC PV-10, we use after-tax cash flows in our NAV model.
We believe that stocks should trade at a premium to such conservatively constructed NAV estimates. Our twelve month price objective, however, is only 10% higher than our NAV estimate, reflecting the time-value premium.
Neil Malkin contributed to this report.
Read the full analyst report on AEZ.
Even O&G A-E-Z rocketing off the lows!
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?AEZ
Holding some $5.00 shares. I hope I get to see the other rim of the canyon I visited the bottom of recently. I almost made it my wild pick in PSL9. I went for an oil sands stock that had been hammered into oblivian instead.
(Len, take pitty on me and my non-earner, this might be the first time I broke the rules and posted a non earner but I am almost back to even and couldn't help myself!)
Kipp
PetroChina to guarantee domestic refined oil supply
Currently, the domestic supply of refined oil is at a tight balance. PetroChina has made a series of measures; and in the second quarter will be able to ensure the domestic refined oil supply under the state of this tight balance market, said Jiang Jiemin, president of the PetroChina Company Limited (PetroChina).
Jiang Jiemin said that at present China has stopped all exports of finished oil products. On the basis of importing 1.5 million tons of gasoline and diesel in the first quarter, the company will continue to import 500,000 tons of gasoline and 1 million tons of diesel; and has intensified resource purchase from local refineries to meet the domestic demand for refined oil products.
He pointed out that the demand for domestic refined oil is rising and China's oil refining capacity still cannot fully meet the domestic refined oil market's demand.
In order to achieve a domestic refined oil supply, China will impose the VAT and then return the VAT in the import links of parts of refined oil imported by the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec Group in the second quarter of this year. As of April 1, the central government's finance department has provided subsidies for the losses resulting from processing the imported crude oil.
By People's Daily Online
Don Coxe - Grain Futures Contango/Inflation
Here are some interesting comments from Coxe:
Commodity contango – the fuel to feed inflation fears…
I believe that the next big change that is going to occur is that we are going to
start moving to contangos.
And in case you don’t think this is a big story, I think this could be the biggest
story yet, and it will affect everything else.
Here’s why:
Ben Bernanke is somebody who is a real student of economic history. He knows
that what really kicked-off the runaway inflation of the 70s, was the contangos
for nearly all the commodities, and it is when we switched, (in the 70s) from
backwardation to contangos, that was what fed inflation expectations.
Inflation is mostly a monetary phenomenon, as Milton Friedman won the Nobel
Prize for, back then when people were trying to blame everything on the Arabs.
The Arabs quite rightly, regarded this as a libelous statement – they didn’t cause
it.
They got a better price for their product, and their product (as we now know)
was not in unlimited supply.
But when you got into upward sloping curves of contangos, and as those
contangos steepened, it was because speculators (or people trying to protect
themselves against inflation) learned that that was the best way to make a bet
on inflation, apart from selling long-term bonds.
Back in the 70s when I was building an investment management firm for
Mutual Life, the slogan I used was, “The proper holding period for a long-term
bond in this inflationary environment, is the amount of time you hold a hand
grenade, after you have pulled the pin.”
A pure play on upward inflation…
The first thing you did in order to take a real inflation bet, was you bought outmonth,
or out-year futures, in a range of commodities.
You didn’t specify a commodity; you bought a bunch of the commodities futures,
way out the curve, and what you had was what amounted to a pure-play
bet on rising inflation.
That has not happened.
Backwardation indicates a benign inflation threat…
When Ben Bernanke answered the question, ”I don’t see stagflation coming”, (I
believe he was giving an honest answer; he got ridiculed for it in some quarters)
because the major commodities were all in backwardation, which meant it was
a relationship between supply and demand.
Oil was going up; it ran from $50 to $120, while staying in backwardation, so
there was not an inflation bet being made.
We had gone out of contango on oil, the one that we got after the effect of Rule
133 at the end of 2003. The oil was in contango for two years, (and you heard me
talking about it back then) and I used that as a core component for my theme for
why you bought the oil sands stocks, because I said, “You buy commodity stocks
on the basis of unhedged reserves in the ground in politically secure areas of the
world.”
Those reserves in the ground were rising fast, faster than spot prices were,
therefore it meant the underlying value of the companies that had 50-75 years
reserves in the ground, was rising faster than the market price of their stocks
was rising.
Hitting people where it hurts, will translate to fear…
If I am right in this, what is going to happen because of food price inflation,
that what that will do, is change the other part of commodity inflation, which is
expectations.
What happened in the 70s was despite large-scale unemployment, (lead by the
public sector unions) we had damaging strikes, with huge wage increases, and
that was what actually transmitted the commodity inflation into real inflation,
because wage rates are two thirds of the economy as opposed to raw materials
prices.
We have not seen anything like that happening, except what happened in Germany
with the engine drivers.
Therefore what the central bankers fear more than anything, is a transmission
mechanism that has average consumers changing their expectations of inflation.
I can tell you, having lived through those tough years, what happened was
consumer’s inflation expectations had been governed by years of experience,
so they still, in all the polls, showed inflation expectations of 4 and 5%, but
when the went out to shop, and found if they shopped twice a week, they could
compare their checkout tapes and see prices rising by the day, and that’s when
inflation expectations skyrocketed.
Central bankers are holding their breath…
At the moment at which Paul Volcker took over and drove interest rates up,
inflation expectations had reached double-digit levels, and that’s what Paul
Volcker had to destroy.
He drove the real yields on the 10-year Treasury note to 12%, producing the
deep recession in 1982, which nearly destroyed the Reagan recovery.
Contrast that with today, where the real yield on the 10-year note is negative by
about 40 basis points.
Therefore, there has been no transmission effect to date.
What Bernanke and the other central bankers must fear above everything is that
we will have the futures curves turn upwards.
Labor unrest may be the lynch-pin…
Food prices will continue to rise, and consumers will then change their expectations,
and we are now in a period where the labor shortages will start to show
up because of a collapse in the birthrate starting in 1971.
It will start first with the entrenched public sector unions who can enforce their
demands, and when that happens, the central bankers will be faced with a need
to raise interest rates dramatically, to head off inflation.
So from a standpoint of economic forecasting, the disaster area would occur at
such point as the inflation expectations are triggering strikes, dislocations, at a
time of low or negative economic growth.
That’s pure stagflation...
You may have seen today’s Wall Street Journal’s article about why the airlines
are in such trouble is because they don’t have enough skilled workers to do all
the repairs and checks needed.
When you have the best-run airline, Southwest Airlines, whose market capitalization
is greater than all the other airlines put together in the US, and they did
not have enough workers to do all the checks, so they had to stop their flights
for a while.
Remember that we’ve had lots of retirements because these industries have
very generous pension plans that allow for people retiring at a fairly young age,
or a young age.
A change in expectations will change market performance…
I can’t predict each part of the scenario, but I can tell you that this is a huge
point for all you people who are in diverse investment management organizations,
and a necessary part of your work is forecasting the overall change in
asset values in various asset classes.
In the 70s, it was the food price inflation, which drove everything else, and
drove down the stock market.
We had the worst bear market since 1929.
As of August 12th, 1982, the constant dollar Dow Jones Industrials were trading
at their 1929 levels.
It had been a terrible bear market; if you had bought the stock market in 1968,
in the next 14 years, you lost hugely on what was supposedly an asset that gave
you a good hedge against inflation.
I am not going to say it’s going to be as bad this time; what I am going to say is
that we are now more vulnerable to a change in inflation expectations, than we
have been for more than 20 years.
Unrealistic expectations…
Therefore the comfort level that people have in buying bonds, and in assigning
high price/earnings ratios to generalized stock indices, they are about to see, (I
think) a challenge to their valuation metrics.
I don’t believe these price/earnings ratios are sustainable in an environment in
which inflation expectations of the general populous are rising, and the central
bankers have had a free-pass on their ability to lower interest rates, because of
the fact that we are not getting the signal from the commodities markets and we
are not getting inflation showing up in the areas where most people see it.
We have been able to, almost amazingly, absorb an oil price increase of over
100% in 14 months, but everybody said, this is not inflation, and technically
they are right.
Food is different.
rougue - YOU WILL LOVE THIS......
I did!
POE.V - Energy Map of SE Asia
http://psg.deloitte.com/resources/PS_Map_AP.pdf
This map provides information on the infrastructure, terminals, pipelines and the leased and unleased blocks in the area. There should be a zoom feature on your toolbar allowing you to nagivate and zoom in on selected areas.
POE.V Pan Orient Energy Corp. has purchased, through a series oftransactions, an operated 90-per-cent working interest in the3,989-square-kilometre Batu Gajah production sharing contract (PSC),located onshore south Sumatra, Indonesia. Total consideration in thetransaction is $6-million (U.S.) cash with the vendor, Ranhill Berhadand its related group of companies, retaining a 10-per-cent carriedworking interest through to first commercial oil or gas production.
PanOrient has also purchased a 90-per-cent operated interest in the PamaiTaluk joint study area (JSA). Under the terms of the joint studyagreement between Ranhill and the Indonesian licensing authority MIGAS,Pan Orient will now have the right to match any offer made on theapproximately 6,200-square-kilometre south/central Sumatra proposedPamai Taluk PSC, located onshore south/central Sumatra, during theupcoming Indonesian licensing round that is anticipated to be announcedin June/July, 2008. Total consideration is $1-million (U.S.) cash withRanhill retaining a 10-per-cent carried working interest through tofirst commercial oil or gas production.
The Batu Gajah PSC andPamai Taluk JSA assets were divested as a result of the strategicrationalization initiative of Ranhill Berhad, a large Malaysiancorporation specializing in infrastructure development and engineering,to restrategize its oil and gas business with a view to focusing ondownstream engineering activities and investment in proven andproducing oil and gas assets.
Batu Gajah PSC
The3,989-square-kilometre Batu Gajah PSC is located in south Sumatradirectly adjacent to and/or surrounding 13 oil and gas discoveriescurrently producing approximately 60,000 boe per day from the JabungPSC that is operated by PetroChina. It was announced in 2007 inStockwatch that PetroChina would be budgeting approximately$350-million (U.S.) to explore and further develop the area. ExistingInfrastructure is well established with the main Sumatra-Singapore gasexport pipeline and the Corridor to Duri gas pipelines running throughthe Batu Gajah PSC. On offshore oil-loading terminal exists along theSumatra coast directly adjacent to the Batu Gajah PSC.
The BatuGajah PSC was awarded to Ranhill on Jan. 16, 2007 after Ranhillexercised their right of first refusal on the high bid made byPetroChina in the preceding Indonesian licensing round. Under the termsof the PSC, Ranhill paid a $4-million (U.S.) signature bonus andcommitted to 500 kilometres of 2-D seismic, 400 square kilometres of3-D seismic and the drilling of three wells to be completed over athree-year period with estimated expenditures of approximately$29.75-million (U.S.). To date, none of the proposed work program hasbeen initiated on the PSC. Upon completion of the firm three-year workprogram and required partial relinquishment, the operator has theoption to continue on a year-by-year renewal basis for up to anadditional seven years.
Six prospects and leads have beenidentified on the PSC using a course grid of 2-D seismic data. Seismicmapping suggests a number of the PetroChina fields extend on to the PSCwith wells drilled, in at least one case, right on the concessionboundary.
Pan Orient may, subject to government approval andfurther work, conduct 2-D/3-D seismic acquisition in 2008 followed bythe drilling of three wells in 2009.
Pamia Taluk JSA
Theapproximately 6,200-square-kilometre Pamai Taluk JSA is located east ofthe Barisan mountain front straddling both the south and centralSumatra basins. The acreage was formerly explored in the 1970s to 1980sby a consortium of Exxon and Mobil. The existing seismic data coverageand well control is sparse and the area very underexplored. Furtherdetails will be provided after the June-July, 2008, Indonesianlicensing round and in the event Pan Orient exercises their right offirst refusal on the highest bid.
Bobwins - 1 board would be great. I run the traps on all 3 boards every day. I think most of us are looking at "stuff" as a way to protect our fortunes from the ravages of inflation, a debasement of the USD, and to participate in the global growth story that is taking hold. I think consolidation might even help others diversify between the mining, energy, and ag stocks. It's all "mining" if you think about it.
Thanks for starting VMC, glad to be with you since day 1.
Kipp
Great Panther Earnings
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080512/0395970.html
A Jr. That Makes Money!
I like it.
Kipp
Don Coxe on Ag Market - Mandatory Listen!
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp
If the grain markets go in CONTANGO.....LOOK OUT!
Kipp
nuts, ag dump may provide buying op of the year.
Corn planting is way behind normal. It looks like the weather is going to continue to be the story in ag. I can see Wall Street saying the switch to soybeans from corn is going to cause a glut in fertilizer and a price collapse. The next headline will proclaim the bursting of the ag bubble. BUT, what they don't understand is that corn prices will explode and the fall fertilization will be unlike anything US soils have ever seen. Farmers will contract $8, $9, $10 corn and then fertilize the ground for 200 plus bsl/acr yields. Any leftover fertilizer from this spring will be snapped up in hours when the producers project fall prices. Potash producers will have an "early fill program" for fall that will read like this: Potash delivered in June will be $800/ton, July $900/ton, August - October $1000/ton. My advice is to watch this closely and pounce on any sell off that may occur, it will be fast and furious!
I will dig up planting stats and post them here.
Thanks for all of your picks and sharing on the VMC boards!
Kipp
Oil Prices Not Going Lower
This is one of the best explanations I have read for why oil prices are going, and staying up.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/mckillop/2008/0507.html
Kipp
Consumer borrowing unexpectedly surges in March
Wednesday May 7, 5:09 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Consumers increase their borrowing in March at the fastest pace in 4 months
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer borrowing rose in March at the fastest pace in four months, more than double the increase of the previous month, in what was seen as a sign of rising economic stress.
The Federal Reserve reported Wednesday that consumers increased their borrowing at an annual rate of 7.2 percent, compared with a 3.1 percent rate of increase in February.
The gain was much larger than economists had been expecting and reflected strong borrowing on credit cards and also in the category that includes auto loans. The increase in consumer debt totaled $15.3 billion at an annual rate in March, much bigger than the $6 billion increase that economists had been expecting.
Economists said consumers were being forced to make greater use of their credit cards during hard economic times when they are being battered by job losses, soaring gasoline prices and higher food costs.
"This represents distressed borrowing. Consumers need cash and they have turned back to their credit cards to fill the void left by lost jobs and weaker incomes," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
Borrowing on credit cards was up at an annual rate of 7.9 percent, compared to a 5 percent gain in February, while borrowing in the category that includes auto loans jumped by 6.8 percent, compared to a 2 percent increase in February.
The overall growth in debt of 7.2 percent at an annual rate was the biggest gain since an increase of 8.25 percent last November.
Consumers have been moving to put more of their purchases on their credit cards as banks have tightened lending standards for home equity loans in response to the deepening credit crisis.
The Fed's measure of consumer borrowing, which does not include any debt secured by real estate such as mortgages or home equity loans, stood at a record $2.558 trillion in March.
Senate Democrats seek to tax oil companies
By H. JOSEF HEBERT – 1 hour ago
(This is why I am mostly invested in Canadian listed energy stocks!)Kipp
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democrats on Wednesday called for a temporary windfall profits tax on oil companies and a rollback of $17 billion in oil industry tax breaks as part of an energy package. The proposal also would impose federal penalties on energy price gouging and calls for stopping oil deliveries into the government's emergency reserve.
Senate Republicans strongly oppose any additional oil industry taxes, which are widely viewed as having little chance of being enacted. Even then, they would almost certainly prompt a veto by President Bush.
The proposed 25 percent profits tax would apply only to windfall oil company earnings above what would be considered "reasonable" and only if those profits are not reinvested in refinery capacity expansion or renewable energy sources, according to a summary of the proposals.
The windfall tax would expire after two years.
The energy proposals also seek to halt deliveries of oil into the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve until oil prices drop to $75 a barrel.
This is the only section of the Democrats' proposal that seems to have widespread bipartisan support. A GOP energy package, offered last week, also includes halting the roughly 70,000 barrels a day that are diverted into the government reserve.
Bush has opposed stopping the deliveries, saying the amount of diverted oil has little impact on overall supplies and prices.
The Democrats' energy proposals come as lawmakers struggle to respond to soaring gasoline costs and crude oil prices that on Wednesday topped $123 a barrel.
Democrats characterized the proposal as attacking "the root causes of high gas prices," although it wasn't clear how today's high oil costs — set in a global market — or gasoline prices edging toward $4 a gallon would be appreciably affected.
"It will do nothing to lower gas prices," declared Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico, the ranking Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
The Democrats' proposal prompted a barrage of finger pointing.
Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky called it "predictable, more taxes, more bureaucracy."
But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., chided Republicans for offering "more of the same failed energy policies that brought us to this point." A GOP energy package unveiled last week focuses on increasing domestic oil production including opening offshore waters and an Arctic wildlife refuge in Alaska to drilling.
"With this bill Democrats are protecting consumers," argued Reid. "Instead of helping Big Oil make more money at the expense of average Americans, we are forcing oil companies to change their ways."
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said the oil companies are "racking up obscene profits left and right" and the windfall tax will force them to "spur innovation" by directing some of that money into expanded production and development of alternative energy sources.
Aside from the windfall tax proposal, the Democrats' plan reflects largely resurrected energy proposals that have advanced in the past, but never had enough support to make it through Congress.
A proposal to end $17 billion in tax breaks for the largest oil companies passed the House, but was taken out of a broad energy bill last fall because Democrats couldn't get the 60 votes needed to overcome a GOP filibuster.
A measure that would impose stiff penalties for energy price gouging previously passed the House and Senate in separate forms, but was stripped out of the energy bill signed into law by Bush last December.
Proposals that would give new authority for federal regulators to address market manipulation in electronic energy trading — the so-called Enron loophole — also has been proposed before. Enron Corp., the infamous energy company that went bankrupt after an accounting scandal, convinced Congress seven years ago to exempt certain electronic trading from federal jurisdiction.
A proposal that would open the way for the Justice Department to pursue antitrust actions against the OPEC oil cartel also is not new, having been offered before, only to fall by the wayside.
Senate Democrats seek to tax oil companies
By H. JOSEF HEBERT – 1 hour ago
(This is why I am mostly invested in Canadian listed energy stocks!)Kipp
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democrats on Wednesday called for a temporary windfall profits tax on oil companies and a rollback of $17 billion in oil industry tax breaks as part of an energy package. The proposal also would impose federal penalties on energy price gouging and calls for stopping oil deliveries into the government's emergency reserve.
Senate Republicans strongly oppose any additional oil industry taxes, which are widely viewed as having little chance of being enacted. Even then, they would almost certainly prompt a veto by President Bush.
The proposed 25 percent profits tax would apply only to windfall oil company earnings above what would be considered "reasonable" and only if those profits are not reinvested in refinery capacity expansion or renewable energy sources, according to a summary of the proposals.
The windfall tax would expire after two years.
The energy proposals also seek to halt deliveries of oil into the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve until oil prices drop to $75 a barrel.
This is the only section of the Democrats' proposal that seems to have widespread bipartisan support. A GOP energy package, offered last week, also includes halting the roughly 70,000 barrels a day that are diverted into the government reserve.
Bush has opposed stopping the deliveries, saying the amount of diverted oil has little impact on overall supplies and prices.
The Democrats' energy proposals come as lawmakers struggle to respond to soaring gasoline costs and crude oil prices that on Wednesday topped $123 a barrel.
Democrats characterized the proposal as attacking "the root causes of high gas prices," although it wasn't clear how today's high oil costs — set in a global market — or gasoline prices edging toward $4 a gallon would be appreciably affected.
"It will do nothing to lower gas prices," declared Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico, the ranking Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
The Democrats' proposal prompted a barrage of finger pointing.
Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky called it "predictable, more taxes, more bureaucracy."
But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., chided Republicans for offering "more of the same failed energy policies that brought us to this point." A GOP energy package unveiled last week focuses on increasing domestic oil production including opening offshore waters and an Arctic wildlife refuge in Alaska to drilling.
"With this bill Democrats are protecting consumers," argued Reid. "Instead of helping Big Oil make more money at the expense of average Americans, we are forcing oil companies to change their ways."
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said the oil companies are "racking up obscene profits left and right" and the windfall tax will force them to "spur innovation" by directing some of that money into expanded production and development of alternative energy sources.
Aside from the windfall tax proposal, the Democrats' plan reflects largely resurrected energy proposals that have advanced in the past, but never had enough support to make it through Congress.
A proposal to end $17 billion in tax breaks for the largest oil companies passed the House, but was taken out of a broad energy bill last fall because Democrats couldn't get the 60 votes needed to overcome a GOP filibuster.
A measure that would impose stiff penalties for energy price gouging previously passed the House and Senate in separate forms, but was stripped out of the energy bill signed into law by Bush last December.
Proposals that would give new authority for federal regulators to address market manipulation in electronic energy trading — the so-called Enron loophole — also has been proposed before. Enron Corp., the infamous energy company that went bankrupt after an accounting scandal, convinced Congress seven years ago to exempt certain electronic trading from federal jurisdiction.
A proposal that would open the way for the Justice Department to pursue antitrust actions against the OPEC oil cartel also is not new, having been offered before, only to fall by the wayside.
PXX IR Presentation.
http://www.pearleandp.com/s/Presentation.asp
GPR.TO Delayed Reaction to Yesterday's News!
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?GPR.TO
I am still a few cents underwater but it looks ready to run.
Kipp
POE.V vs. Carnarvan
Look at this 30 day chart. I can't figure out why POE is not moving along with their partner.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AU%3ACVN&time=6&freq=1
Holding POE for coiled spring action.
Kipp
POE - This is what I was hoping to see!
"Environmental approval has now been received for 32 drilling locations at Na Sanun East and Wichian Buri. Construction is currently underway on location NSE9-G, located at the crest of the NSE central fault compartment where up to three horizontal wells are anticipated to be drilled from the same surface location, commencing in approximately 5 weeks. With the approval of the NSE development location in hand, production is anticipated to ramp up significantly over the coming three to six months."
FR.WT.A is the First Majestic warrant.
http://www.tsx.com/HttpController?GetPage=DetailedQuotePage&SelectedSymbol=FR.WT.A&RowNumber=3&DetailedView=DetailedPrices&Market=T&QuoteSymbol_1=FR&QuoteSymbol_2=&QuoteSymbol_3=&QuoteSymbol_4=&QuoteSymbol_5=&QuoteSymbol_6=&QuoteSymbol_7=&QuoteSymbol_8=&QuoteSymbol_9=&QuoteSymbol_10=&QuoteSymbol_11=&QuoteSymbol_12=&Language=en
Bobwins - Congrats on a great trade. I am doing the same thing this morning. I already have some FMA but it looks too compelling not to buy more. I also sold EXN.V and moved the money to FR.TO. I got an email from "Toby Hansen", he talks about warrants and I am going to dig up the ticker and buy some. I will post it here when I track it down. (I have been puting in monster days at my day job and coaching high school baseball, not much time for anything else.)
3) First Majestic (FR.TO, FRMSF): First Majestic is my top pick of silver
producers. First Majestic 2008 production is expected to be over 6 million
ounces of silver with cash cost of $6/oz. Their production numbers are up over
200% from 2006, yet the stock is roughly at the same price. I use as one of my
valuation tools for stocks comparing companies with similar production. Hecla
(NYSE -HL) has a flat production profile of 6 million ounces per year for the next
several years. Their market cap is $1.5 billion. First Majestic’s current market
cap is under $300 million. Hecla has lower cash costs to produce an ounce of
silver, but First Majestic has roughly one fifth the market cap. One of the primary
reasons First Majestic has not been recognized by the market is due to its lack of
self promotion. They have no presentation on their website and don’t actively
attend mining conferences. Their brilliant execution to plan should begin to get
noticed by investors. I highly recommend purchasing their newly minted A series
warrants. Strike price is C$7.00 with expiry in March 2010. They have recently
traded around C$0.90, which means you can get exposure to the stock for about
a quarter the cost. What Company Website: www.firstmajestic.com.
BPZ Energy Commences Drilling of CX11-20XD Corvina Well
Business Wire
7:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time May 06, 2008
BPZ Resources, Inc. (AMEX:BZP) today announced the spud of the CX11-20XD Corvina well. The Corvina field is in the
Company's offshore Block Z-1 located in northwest Peru.
The CX11-20XD well will be positioned up dip from the CX11-21XD well, which tested at rates of 60 million cubic feet
of gas per day and 5,900 barrels of oil per day. This well has been positioned to further develop the top gas sands
found in the 21XD well, the oil sands currently producing in the 21XD and 18XD wells, as well as the oil sands
encountered but briefly tested in the 18XD well during the initial DST # 1. Furthermore, according to our Corvina
geologic model, the 20XD well should also reach untested deeper oil-bearing sands that will allow the Company to
further delineate the field's oil-in-place potential.
As previously mentioned, the 20XD well will cross gas sands that the Company expects to test, thus this well is
planned to be dually completed as both an oil and gas producer. The Company plans to drill to a total depth of
approximately 11,800 feet (measured depth) and anticipates reaching total depth in approximately 90 days, with
testing and completion operations following thereafter.
Manolo Zuniga, President and Chief Executive Officer commented "This well allows us to continue developing the oil
and gas sands discovered by the 21XD well and subsequently appraised by the 14D and 18XD wells. We will be testing
prospective sands in zones not yet reached from any of our current well bores, thus we could increase reserves with
successful tests. This well will be highly deviated, drilling in an almost horizontal direction at about 77 degrees,
crossing multiple sands and could have a significant increase in total pay as compared to our other wells. More
importantly, this well will cross the oil sands the we encountered in the 18XD well in DST # 1 that we felt were the best
sands in the well, yet we were unable to fully test the sands due to an issue with cementing. This well will be the most
challenging well to date, and we are confident our operations team in Peru will continue doing an excellent job
conducting both drilling and production operations in a safe and efficient manner from the CX-11 platform."
Great Panther Drill Holes Look Good!
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080505/0393611.html
I have a few shares of this Canadian listed explorer drilling in Mexico. We just need silver to take off later this summer. Inflation cometh.
Great Panther Drills 15.94 Metres @ 1,305g/t Silver and 4.60g/t Gold and Discovers New Base Metal Rich Zone in Guanajuato Mine
Monday May 5, 12:22 pm ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 5, 2008 -- GREAT PANTHER RESOURCES LIMITED (Toronto:GPR.TO - News) is pleased to announce that deep diamond drilling at the Company's wholly-owned Guanajuato Mine in Guanajuato, Mexico continues to enlarge the dimensions of the Cata Clavo with considerable widths of exceptionally high grade silver-gold mineralization and has discovered a new silver-copper-lead-zinc zone in the lower portion of the orebody.
Drilling was highlighted by hole EUG08-015, which intersected 15.94 metres grading 1,305g/t silver and 4.60g/t gold in the Veta Madre zone. Four of 23 samples within this interval assayed greater than 7,000g/t silver and 28g/t gold with the highest grade sample being 0.25 metres grading 11,815g/t silver and 46.20g/t gold. A second intersection in EUG08-015 returned 254g/t silver and 0.72g/t gold over 5.20 metres, also in the Veta Madre.
Significant widths of good mineralization were intersected in the Veta Madre Zone in hole EUG08-014 which was drilled up dip and off section to the north from EUG08-015. Hole EUG08-014 intersected 4.54 metres grading 166g/t silver and 0.48g/t gold and 2.28 metres grading 347g/t silver and 1.46g/t gold, both in the Veta Madre. Hole EUG08-013, drilled up dip and off section to the south from EUG08-015, intersected 0.32 metres grading 671g/t silver and 3.72g/t gold in the Veta Madre Zone.
A new base metal rich zone was discovered at a vertical depth of 600 metres by core hole EUG08-016, which was drilled to test the Veta Madre zone at depth. This new zone, in the footwall of the Veta Madre, returned 71g/t silver, 0.93% copper, 0.29% lead, and 0.35% zinc over 3.10 metres, including a higher grade portion assaying 162g/t silver, 2.07% copper, 0.42% lead, and 0.39% zinc over 0.44 metres. This is the first time that any appreciable amount of base metals has been encountered in the Cata Clavo and is evidence of metal zoning as the depth increases. Future drilling will continue to test this new zone both up-dip and along strike. Highlights of holes EUG08-013 to 016 are detailed in the table below. Maps, sections and previous news releases can be viewed on the Company's website at www.greatpanther.com.
Drill-holes EUG08-013 to 016 were all collared on the same section as holes EUG07-008 to 012 on the 345 level cross cut to test the down dip and strike continuity of the Cata Clavo, and all intersected significant mineralization with some zones demonstrating excellent widths. Drilling is ongoing and, to date, every hole in the deep drilling program at Cata has intersected good mineralization. Although widths and grades in the drilling are variable, as is typical of vein systems, the program is confirming wide spaced historic drill data that indicated the extension of silver-gold mineralization in this area for at least 170 metres below the existing workings and over a strike length of approximately 300 metres. Seven sub-parallel zones of economic grade have now been identified within a system of intense silicification, brecciation, and quartz vein flooding up to 60 metres in thickness.
Samples were assayed by SGS at the Company's Guanajuato Mine site laboratory and diamond drilling was contracted to Canrock Drilling, of San Luis de Potosi. Robert F. Brown, P. Eng and Vice President of Exploration for the Company, is the Qualified Person for the Guanajuato Mine Project, under the meaning of NI43-101, and has reviewed these results. The Company's QA/QC program includes the regular insertion of blanks and standards into the sample shipments, plus ISO certified laboratory checks.
Great Panther owns a 100% interest in the Guanajuato Mine Complex. Historically, the Guanajuato Mine was one of the largest silver producers in Mexico and encompasses the core of the Guanajuato District, which has produced 1.2 billion ounces of silver and 4.5 million ounces gold.
Don Coxe Investment Recommendations April 2008
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
1. In long-only equity portfolios, continue to underweight Wall Street banks
and others that have been reporting high exposure to perfumed products
of indeterminable value, including those which last year revealed—under
duress—high exposure to SIVs. Within the financials, emphasize those
whose loan losses are of the traditional, cyclical variety—not in derivatives
or in untraditional banking businesses. Good banks that have stuck to
their knitting—and whose CEOs compensation has suffered along with
their stock prices—should be retained.
2. In long/short portfolios, be long commodity stocks and short bank stocks
that make headlines for untraditional losses. That trade hasn’t been
working lately, but it remains an overall portfolio risk-reducer. The list of
banks that have shown great skill and profitability by going heavily into
new kinds of products and new kinds of accounting is roughly as long
as the list of major copper, oil and gas producers that profited by selling
heavily forward.
3. A financial-led bear market within a financial-led recession can be
particularly perilous if central banks run out of ways to reflate the
system—and surprisingly benign if the central banks’ rescues remain
timely. To date, the central banks have been up to the job—if propping
up a badly-behaving financial sector is a key component of their job
descriptions. Result: the overall stock market has outperformed our
expectations. We still don’t like the risk/reward ratio.
4. Dividends become more attractive as central banks cut rates. The problem
for investors is that many of “The Great Dividend-Paying Stocks” are
financials that have been reporting ghastly blunders. In many cases, their
payout ratios have climbed far above the 50% threshold that has made
these stocks better investments than bonds. Opportunities remain—and
dividends may be the only positive return most US stocks will deliver this
year.
5. Although North American consumers have yet to see the cost pass-through
in major foodstuffs of $6 corn and $8 wheat, it will come sooner or later.
Based on past periods of food inflation, one of the first consumer cutbacks
is on eating out. Restaurant stocks are especially unappetizing when food
costs soar out of control.
6. Gold has pulled back from its high because the dollar stopped falling
and the bank bailouts seem to be working. Remain overweight gold as a
clear-cut hedge against further bad news on both those fronts.
7. The Canadian dollar decoupled from the euro, failing to rally to new
peaks—which makes little sense to us. US clients should continue to use
Canadian government bonds and Canadian short-term investments as
alternatives to Treasurys and US cash.
8. Within the commodity group, continue to accumulate the leading
agricultural stocks. Given the spectacular performance of the fertilizer
stocks, the best bargains currently on offer are in the farm machinery
companies. The global food crisis will almost surely cripple the opposition
to GM seeds, which means the seed stocks have great upside room.
9. Within debt portfolios, continue to emphasize inflation-hedge bonds—
preferably in strong currencies. Treasurys remain overvalued, despite the
recent strong run-up in yields from barely-observable levels.