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Marzan:
Do you enjoy Shakespeare? You've no doubt heard of him, right?
"A rose by any other name is still a rose"
Billy Shakespeare
I did smell the roses at 4800 Montgomery, Bethesda,MD and they stunk. Must be the fertilizer. That's why I stay inside. :)
Tearfully,
Umibe
Indeed, Maverick. And the proclivity for obfuscation, silence, lack of clarity, missed timelines adds enormously to the FUD engendered. You might even aver that the problem does not start with the FUDsters but with the FUDDED NWBO management. The ASCO presentation certainly did not help. JMHO
DIFFERENT FOLKS WITH DIFFERENT SPOKES
We will need to agree to disagree.
Perhaps my "word smithing" on what should have been presented was not on the mark. But the greater point is that in essence, with respect to the main dish on the menu, L, there was essentially a stay tuned message and what amounted to an apologia for why the SAP was still incomplete at the time of Industry Theatre. The update on L was a nothing burger and in my view there was certainly a better way to present with a little more meat. I also don't understand why some additional info such as the number of patients alive could not be disclosed as it was in the JTM. I just feel that in this respect, the update on L was a non-event and highly disappointing to the market and at least some investors such as myself. The share price acted accordingly sliding over 20% or so at one point. Indeed, the price whip-sawed part of the way back but we are still in for a rough ride.
Wrt Innes, I agree that he is not obnoxious and unpleasant to speak to as was LG. He does possess the qualities you have alluded to. However, it is my gut feeling that he has, at least thus far, had little influence in making any change in NWBO's clandestine culture of silence and obfuscation. If he were still in is old job, you can bet he would have clamored for "the number of patients alive" and a more specific guidance on the process. I believe that he does not have the sway or influence to alter in any meaningful way the obdurate mindset of LG and LP. He is essentially given a script and told to run with it. He may present a more likable and seemingly compliant IR spokesman vis-a-vis LG but to me he is an insulating layer between NWBO management and shareholders, and an expensive one at that. I am rather certain that if he were still at Oppy, he would have been as sorely disappointed in the presentation as you and I. Accordingly, thus far, I see very little value in what he has brought to the table thus far. He has had a very long association with NWBO and has known both LP and LG well way before he joined NWBO as an employee. He well understood the weaknesses and complained sometimes aggressively with management and made various suggestions. So it is not as if he is new to the job and NWBO. He wanted change for the better when he was outside NWBO. Perhaps that has not changed. But he is now part of the team and has to drink the same kool-aid as the others otherwise he could be on the outside and even lose his position. He needs to thread a thin line as a supposed shareholders advocate. I think DI had an opportunity to influence what happened at ASCO but was either in full agreement, disagreed but could not exert any influence or was not at all consulted despite his interest to do so. In sum, at least up to now, I see little value in his role other than a placeholder so that LG can do other things. Pretty expensive placeholder IMHO.
As to the contradiction you point out, there really isn't any. Likely, LP does not care CURRENTLY about where the share price is. She cares only about getting over the goal line. She believes that if results warrant, the market value will take care of itself. If the share price is at all time lows when top-line/approvals issue, the share price will not immediately reach a higher level than would be the case if the share price were higher at the time of those announcements. She believes that no matter where the share price is that EVENTUALLY it will settle at roughly the same level. In other words, the higher the share price the more quickly you reach the market value, all things being equal. So, no, there is no contradiction in what I have stated. As a shareholder, I do care about where the share price is CURRENTLY. I would like to reach market value sooner rather than EVENTUALLY as I assume most retail shareholders would agree. It may indeed be, as I have suggested, that LP has a longer term expectation than at least I and some number of shareholders have. No contradiction there either my friend.
As to your questioning whether I am a lawyer, the answer is yes. I was a trial lawyer many years ago but I subsequently went in a different corporate direction and had three businesses of my own. I am a member of the NYS bar. And yes, I have had a lot of experience with disclosure and regulatory requirements. My "word smithing" as you termed it was meant as an example within the context of a greater point and not as a finished product.
Marzan, O Marzan:
You are such a meanie. Wishing Umibe dead? What a horrible har boring thought. This is America in case you didn't know. Freedom of speech and all that. Wishing death for those expressing their opinion and if disagreeable to you, wishing death? Why it's unconstitutional and just plain nasty. What a black heart you have. And I do wanted to become an MM--no not a market manipulator but a Marzan Minion. But as a Christian I shall take your slap of adversity and turn my other cheek.
BTW, $0.40 by COB this Friday? Marzan my friend it jest won't happen. We will have trouble holding $0.30. And I predict below $0.20 before you ever see $0.40.
Please don't hate me,Marzan, because I am beautiful and have a different opinion. We are all Americans right? And opinions flourish under freedom of speech.
Peace my fellow American to you and yore minions,
Umibe (not Umibie)
Forewarned WHO?
You are wrong in my opinion. Investor relations is being involved with investors to attract, keep , mollify and encourage them. After all, they are part owners of the company. As such, DI is also an advocate for shareholders and before joining NWBO he was also dissatisfied with the company's strategy of silence and lack of transparency. He wanted to fix that and presumably that was one of the reasons he joined NWBO. Shareholders are interested in preservation of value, where a company can take steps to do so. While I did not expect top line, I did expect a better presentation which could have served to mitigate a downdraft in price. I have made suggestions on how this could have been done in other posts. It is not rocket science.
As I have said, as far as I can see, DI is a musical chairs replacement for LG who thus far, IMHO, has effected no noticeable change in the company's investor relation activities such as they are. ASCO would have been a great opportunity for him to have made some impact, but there was none, either because he believes this was the best way to go, he disagreed but had no influence or he was not consulted beforehand. As you say.....different strokes for different folks.
Kam:
JMHO, but I am as certain as can be that won't happen. It is possible with approval but that is relatively far off.
With good top line, I think the share price could conceivably hit anywhere between a dollar or two. If top line is only mediocre, the share price could even dip from current levels on dashed expectations. A bit of a roll on the dice.
JMHO on management. But $25? Erik, honestly, I would be overjoyed, delirious and incredulous if we got to $2.50 anytime soon.
Thanks Smokey. I was wrong and stand corrected.
Yes, I expressed an opinion. Further, I highly doubt that SAP benediction by the RAs will occur before SNO. Hopefully they will be able to make an announcement then. I don't think you will see top line until early 2020. My opinion FWIW.
It's a tyre company
Really? Glad you are happy.
"Almost" complete means what, like "soon"? Why can't they say...".we will be submitting the completed draft SAP to all 4 RAs during this month and will keep you advised on our progress." Wrt queries..."out of 3,768 queries we have whittled it down to 267 remaining. These should be resolved by the end of June."
My point also was that due to the complexity and state of the art statistical tools plus the length of the draft, turn around by the RAs wrt questions and/or comments is not around the corner given their resources and other priorities. Lastly, benediction by the RAs is more likely toward the latter part of 2019 with top line sometime in 2020.
They could also have told us number alive.
Yes, you are right. Like a quantum particle LP could be anywhere in the universe. She was not seen at ASCO as far as I know, a most important venue. Dr. Bosch was to take the hits if the presentation was mediocre. And IMHO, it was. JMHO.
Flipper, with all due respect, puhleeeeeeeeeeze. Nonsense. Another apologist for NWBO's breath taking waste of Industry Theatre. Jeeeeeze.
The sad part about all this is that NWBO credibility is suspect, if not completely shot. What they do say is unclear, subject to a much too wide interpretations and they set no points for measuring accountability. The PR following the presentation was meaningless as it reminded us of the predominantly non-informational and diversionary D tactics of the day before. Poor Dr. Bosch. His commander in chief was missing in action. A shameful performance by all including Mr. Innes who appears not to have been a successfully influencing factor cautioning against such a presentation.
JMHO
Meaning quick turn around RA approval will probably not happen. Earliest I see SAP approvals are around SNO time. Top line, probably, is in 2020. Not necessarily bad news but it is clear that this is a long term investment. Dreams of a relatively quick cash out or explosive rise in the share price are highly misplaced. There is still a lot of flying to do in some serious turbulence. JMHO.
There is no doubt that fi-ASCO was a not too veiled warning that SAP approvals and top-line are not around the corner and that there is still a relatively long way to go.
Dr. Bosch described the development of the SAP and the involvement of a page team of consultants, oncologists, professional statisticians, etc. in putting together state of the art analytical tools for a complex and pioneering SAP. Developing this SAP was one ginormous project comprising perhaps a 100 pages and is still uncompleted and not submitted to the requisite RAs. With its state of the art, pioneering and complex analytical tools and various end-point/objectives to be met within this SAP protocol, one has to wonder whether the RAs are well acquainted with these state of the art methodologies, have sufficient resources in order to review, digest and understand what is in the protocol and then come up with questions, comments and suggestions in a relatively expeditious time-frame. As it was a ginormous task for NWBO and its slew of experts to put this SAP together, it is reasonable to assume that, likely, it will be a ginormous task for the regulators to ultimately come to approval. Perhaps the reviewing task is not nearly as ginormous as was development of the SAP by NWBO, but with limited resources and other competing priorities, one can be reasonably certain that the turn around approval time will be protracted.
Accordingly, in my opinion and it is only an opinion, the goal posts have been changed once again. I believe that NWBO management is now conservatively looking at SNO to update SAP progress and that they are pointing for RA approvals by that time so that they can make an appropriate announcement. By that time, the queries should be mopped up and data lock follow shortly thereafter. I believe that it will take a couple of months to analyse the data even for top line release which I think might take place in the January/February 2020 time frame. An abstract will be presented with fully analysed findings in time for ASCO 2020. Assuming that the results are positive, I foresee RA approvals toward the latter part of 2021.
Keeping in mind NWBO's pattern of relative non-disclosure, we will not have SAP updates until, at the very earliest IMHO, SNO. Between now and then, I see further erosion of the share price to new lows if not the upper single digits.
Fi-ASCO confirmed to me, at least, that LP is not in the least concerned in defending and preserving the share price. LP believes in market value which will ensue if the trial is successful. Until then, she does not care if the share price is $0.25, $0.15 or $0.05. If the share price is at $0.05 at the time of approvals, no matter, as the share price will eventually over time reach an appropriate level. Accordingly, in LP's mind, this is a very looooooooong term investment and even bothering to "protect" the share price now is a waste of time and resources. While I did not, in the least, expect top line to be announced at fi-ASCO, I thought that more encouraging news could have been announced for share price protection. For example, wrt to the SAP, Bosch could have been allowed to give a more encouraging SAP explanation and a time frame that while not completed, they expected completion and submission to the RAs within the month of June and knowing how important this info is to shareholders, they would update on their progress. Wrt the queries, Bosch could have been more specific, i.e., "we have about 250 queries left out of the nearly 15,000 total that we have worked through and expect that these queries should be mopped up by the end of June. And on another piece of news, the number of patients still alive are 76 with an attrition rate approaching 1.254 patients per month." I believe that even this parsimonious revelatory presentation would have served to minimise share price destruction.
The presentation on D, at least to investors in my network was all but ignored. It fell on deaf ears because interest was keenly focused upon L. And investors know the state of D trials. They get announced and then swept under the rug. So D was obviously a placeholder because NWBO had so little to say about L. D was considered to be nothing more than a diversionary tactic for the lack of really meaningful L information.
With fi-ASCO now gone, NWBO management credibility is virtually non-existent as is BOD Jerry what's his name. At the ASM, he was heard to say that we should be expecting news with 3~4 months and that we need to get the share price up before we can do a lot of things or words to that effect. ASCO was a fi-ASCO and an opportunity to say something more than the ill-crafted presentation Dr. Bosch was surely forced to make with LP no where to be seen. She let him be run over by the bus and may have severely impacted the only member of management who had any credibility. I can understand why Dr. Bosch was nervous.
And now we come to Mr. Innes. I have consistently felt that his hire is/was premature. Essentially, he is an expensive cushion for LG who has other priorities and has tired of minding hoi polloi shareholders especially MB denizens. Enter stage left and we have Mr. Innes. He has fashioned himself as he has told me in a phone conversation that he is a shareholders' advocate. With his experience and market knowledge, he knows about value preservation and attracting/keeping investors relatively pacified and interested. The last thing he would want is to work in an environment where management does not give a damn about preserving share price at all. And if there is no real news at all, what is the sense of having IR in the first place? There is nothing to say except he left his old job convinced of the efficacy of the science and what a great opportunity, blah, blah , blah. All nonsense and an endorsement by a non-expert in the science. What would be convincing is a change, indeed any change, no matter how small in the non-transparent culture of NWBO management. We saw none, nada at fi-ASCO.
Did Mr. Innes know what Dr. Bosch was going to present? Did he provide a counter-suggestion at least along the lines suggested above? IMHO, Mr. Innes had a chance to utilise his experience and expertise wrt the investor community and share price preservation and what we got was nada, unless he believes the presentation was the right way to go in the first place or equally as bad he had no influence otherwise. Perhaps nobody listened to him. So in my view, fi-ASCO has in a way resulted in NWBO management's undermining his role in IR where his very credibility and real necessity for IR is in question. Frankly, I personally would not believe a word he says because he is parroting the company line. He is LG wearing another suit and IMHO a wasted resource costing NWBO money it really does not have. I don't really blame Mr. Innes but I think he got himself into a situation not of his making, underestimating how influential he could be in engendering at least some change in the culture. Rather, whatever value he may have potentially had is now quite suspect after fi-ASCO.
All in all a very disappointing fi-ASCO. JMHO.
I mostly agree with your post but in past years, NWBO spent big bucks at ASCO for essentially nothing. If past is prologue, it could happen again.
However, with Dave Innes aboard, I think LP realizes that she can no longer continue to undeliver in terms of transparency and to hell with the share price.
I do think we will get an update on DCVAX L, however, it will be rather disappointing.
On SAPs I think MB will have to say something. It will definitely come up. The status will be disappointing in that the SAPs are nearing completion and should be submitted "soon" unless something unforeseen should intervene. Disappointing
On data collection, it is complete but still resolving queries as this is a ginormous task. Disappointing.
Timeline to top line announcement? Cannot really give one as RA approvals are not within our control. But we are going as fast as our resources permit. As LP has said before, we have pedal to the metal. Disappointing.
Number of patients alive. Will probably skirt this and say that attrition rate has slowed somewhere below 2/month. No other particulars. Disappointing.
Will fill up time regurgitating past history, because little to divulge for D and L. Diversionary and disappointing.
The stock will be spanked hard come Monday. The shorts will have field day. And the longer it takes for top line to go unannounced, the lower the share price sinks. That means a probable delay in D trials(again)and contributes to accelerating fears of toxic financings at much lower pps and horrible dilution(again).
LP will wonder why the share price was spanked--"didn't we give an update on L as we promised? Gee, the investment community just does not understand what a ginormous task this whole thing is". It's been ginormous for years and this year's ASCO will come and go just the same. Disappointing.
Hopefully, after the share price gets caned, LP will realize that she must get top line announced relatively soon, otherwise the share price will bleed to even lower levels than before. NWBO will have dug themselves in a deep hole where with even splendid results the share price will find difficult to climb out of. Discouraging.
I hope management really understands this and sings a higher tune at this year's Industry theatre. Monday can either be grand or blue. JMHO.
Root:
Don't count your chickens, turkeys or whatever until.... You know what.
My post does not imply any price in that range. If top line is mixed or an outright failure, the share price will surely be below a dollar.
If results are splendid as per top line announced after ASCO, the price may indeed exceed a dollar or more but it depend from what the then share price is. If announcement of top line is delayed to the latter part of the year, the share price at that time will have eroded significantly. If the share price then is in the lower to mid-teens, I don't think that the share price will hit a dollar. I envision about a 6x multiple. If, however, ASCO comes through with a good and credible update, followed by a mid-late summer top line, I can envision a price range closing in on about $2.00. But a $100? Right now, unfortunately, it is not in the cards. It's possible in the very long future but most won't wait for it. JMHO.
IMHO, there will be no BO in the near to longer intermediate term. If results are disappointing or middling, no one is likely to have any acquisition interest particularly at an attractive price to LP. In these circumstances, a BO is rather unlikely.
If OTOH, results are splendid, I think LP will continue the ride, in control, and structure good partnerships as needed but not sell the company. She knows longer term value and probably will not sell, even in the intermediate term, even at an attractive price. She will want to realize greater value going it alone but with partnerships while remaining in management control. She is young enough to continue for the foreseeable future. So, IMHO, there will not be any BO anytime soon and a concomitantly quick cash out. JMHO.
You will be disappointed. If there is nothing of any substance about DCVAX L announced announced at ASCO, the share price gets taken to the woodshed. Further, the focus is solely on L. If nothing on L, the market could care less about D or anything else. L is make it or break it. Point, period, end of sentence.
There will be no R/S in these circumstances. A R/S will give shorts additional incentive to drive the stock down from a welcomed higher altitude. Little to no news on L is bad news and the stock will act accordingly.
If there is a good update on L short of top line, the stock will hold current levels. LP will not do a R/S at these levels now. She will wait for top line if she feels confident as shown by forbearance by Cognate.
My bet is that they reveal positive news on L and will address SAP status. I don't believe LP is so stupid to let ASCO come and go with essentially nada. Hope we are not unpleasantly surprised but it could happen. I think the odds are low and so I am going with it. JMHO.
In the intro to the iHub MB there is a graphic that separates out Methylated(M+) and Unmethylated(M-). The source is an article written in February, 2018 entitled Developments in Molecularly Targeted Agents and Immunotherapies: A Personalised Approach.
These two groups, M+/M-, are then further characterised by molecular sub-groups. M+ is associated with pro-neural and M- is associated with MES, classic and neural. M+ constitutes nearly 40% of the ITT pool (331) and nearly 45% of the categorised group(293 due to the initial 38 patients not being classified.
Further MES is said, by various literature, to constitute any where between 30%~49% of all ndGBM. Accordingly, MES could constitute about 1/2 of the M- group with the other half of classical and neural.
In earlier studies conducted at UCLA, LL/RP found that the vaccine worked particularly well in the MES sub-group which the chart shows as belonging to the M- group. They further noted that the vaccine does little to nothing for the pro-neural group. The chart does not elaborate as to the characteristics of the pro-neural group. For example, is it IDH1 mutant, is it part of the G-cimp methylated grouping. For an additional example, if the pro-neural type does not have IDH1 mutations, it is even more aggressive than the other groups according to an April, 2019 abstract.
The first issue is whether the chart shown in the intro is accurate and can be relied upon to make further analysis given the earlier findings.
Secondly, if it is accurate, it seems to imply, at least if MES is at least predominantly(NF-1 deletion, NF transcriptional error)M-, that the vaccine works quite well in a significant M- population in addition to M+ which according to the chart appears to be all(not predominantly) pro-neural. This would imply that DC VAX works well on perhaps 60%~70% of all ndGBM(M+ and MES in M-). It might also explain the 14.3% survival at 36 months for the M- group due to the assumption(by me) that the MES sub-molecular group may have performed much better in terms of survival at the 36 month milestone but this performance was masked(because we are still blinded) by the performance of the classical/neural sub-molecular group where the vaccine might not performed as well, thus pulling down the overall survival percentage for the overall M- group. In essence, it would appear that DC VAX L works very well on two out of three sub-molecular groups(pro-neural in M+ and MES in M- versus classical in M-. Neural is noted as being de-minimis in recent studies and appears not to be classified as a separate sub-molecular group.
Would be interested in any comments from our more scientifically oriented MB denizens. TIA.
And what would those reasons be??
If it is disappointingly low, she won't reveal it. Non-revelation is a hint.
I think the odds are they will. Otherwise, what a waste, not to mention the probable share price fall-out.
I would expect nothing less :)
I won't bother to respond point by point to your rather ponderous post other than to say we will have to agree to disagree. We shall shortly see anyway, won't we?
Your last comment makes sense. IF, and this is a big IF, top line follows ASCO in a couple of months, the ASCO non-event will be forgotten albeit we will be operating from a lower share price than would have been the case if noteworthy news had been disclosed at ASCO. While we can debate what noteworthy news might be, I think most would agree that an update on SAP status, if completed, when filed, collection of data status and queries, number of patients still alive, etc. would be newsworthy enough, without more debate on how many angels can dance on a pin. JMHO.
I think LP would lose what remains of her credibility if she/MB say nothing of real substance at ASCO wrt DC VAX L. I would then share similar sentiments about LP as does Scottie.
Insofar as sending the wrong message via MB to management is concerned, I disagree with you. In a telephone conversation with Les about two years ago, I asked Les whether he read the iHub MB. He said that he did but was surprised about the many misconceptions posts conveyed. I told him that that is precisely the reason that CCs should be conducted. MBs provide a microcosm, sample or barometer if you will about what shareholders and others think. As part of IR, consulting the MBs gives management some idea when combined with other info on investor thinking. Perhaps, investor misconceptions are due to lack of clear and effective communication on the part of management. As part of his function in IR, I would hope that DI reads the MB for the very reason I have cited. In fact, Les communicated with many JB denizens including yours truly. Perhaps unwittingly, he used the MB as a vehicle for communicating with shareholders knowing full well that telephone conversations would find their way to the MB. And it also should be noted that manipulators use the board to spread messages of distrust and doubt as has been made abundantly clear by Jim Cramer. No doubt, AF used the MB to advance his agenda. Accordingly, I do believe that a sense of what the more at large investing is thinking does in fact find its way to management. So I stand by my statement concerning a wrong message being sent which management is likely to read.
No, LP did not say it. It was BOD Jerry J. who said it. And yes, ASCO is about 4 months since he said it. About time if you ask me.
If LP does reveal number of current survivors, SAP status , data collection and queries, and even better, although unlikely, a time table for top line, etc., then yes, I believe the share price should be minimally affected. Nothing other than sending a stay tuned message, however, spells trouble for the pps, IMHO.
Further, top line announcement nlt September will provide a solid platform for share appreciation. No info/delayed top line into latter 2019 spells trouble. JMHO.
Your post at least implicitly suggests that you are relatively OK with NWBO management not providing a newsworthy update at ASCO wrt DC VAX L and that this lack won't negatively and dramatically affect the share price.
OK, until when will lack of meaningful updates/ top line be OK with you? September? November at SNO? Early 2020? How about ASCO 2020? When is enough is enough for you? Your post, IMHO, sends the wrong message to management. It supports their failed and damaging strategy of silence and/or obfuscation and blaming it all upon malevolent conspirational forces. It supports their seeming belief that share price does not matter now. If results are home runs as LP has averred(at least in some respects), the share price will take care of itself. So it does not matter if the share price at the time of updates/top line is $0.10, $0.20 or at current levels.
I disagree. Preserving the share price now is important to the extent it can be defended. By now, there is considerable information about the status of DCVAX L which management can reveal. The market is not interested in combo trials, which have been announced and then postponed, the promise of DCVAX D or anything else that is not DCVAX L. ASCO is a pivotal event. Conducting what is essentially a dog and pony show at Industry Theatre and little more than a "stay tuned" take away, is essentially a waste of time and money and highly discouraging. You can bet that the lack of a meaningful DC VAX L update short of top line will provide a platform for shorts to drive the share price down, especially if LG bleats about malevolent and threatening conspirators are true, rather than a diversion from their failed silence, etc. strategy.
I believe that allowing ASCO to come and go with nothing will have a devastating effect on the share price. Investors will hedge their bets even in the mid twenties because it is almost a certainty that the share price will go much lower. There is certainly some newsworthy information that management can share. If they continue the same pattern, not only will management lose their remaining credibility but fears that it has come to a fourth down last quarter touchdown pass in order to win will accelerate. What does management have to hide when there is beaucoup info that they can select and share?
Sorry but I don't share your perspective at all and I believe that your post sends the wrong message to management. JMHO.
No top line until SNO is a prescription for single digit share price. They don't need to wait until then. Announcement of top line should not depend upon conference venues. At this point, good news just climbs us out of an avoidable hole that management has dug for itself.
And more detailed analysis should not be delayed until then either, unless top line results are so impressive and undeniable that further analysis fleshes out the already irrefutable results.
JMHO.
Spartex:
You misunderstand my post. I am not claiming that the trial has failed. I am making the following points:
1. Top line will probably be positive but not as good as many have hopes for. As LP has said, this is new pioneering ground and there is no clear pathway. They are amending the SAPs in face of this realty. I don't think the results will be completely undeniable and irrefutable, but I believe, in due course, that reg approvals will issue, probably in late 2021/early 2022. Due to all this, share appreciation will be capped. There will be financing concerns and the sale of their last tangible asset on the way to achieving reg approvals;
2. Letting ASCO come and go with essentially a "nothing burger" is a recipe for share price disaster. Hopefully, NWBO management is prescient enough to understand this and avoid this outcome.
JMHO.
Marzan(and Minions):
Here are some predictions:
1. There will be no PR of any sort prior to or after ASCO for the short to intermediate term;
2. There will, almost assuredly, be a "sort" of update on the SAPs. LP will state that they are nearing completion and will be submitted "soon" to the relevant RAs. She will not venture a guess on when these submissions will be approved because this is out of her control. Stay tuned.
3. Wrt to collection of data and resolution of inquiries, she will only state that this is a ginormous task but we are getting there. Stay tuned.
4. There will be no guideline on when top line will be announced. " We are pedal to the metal however as stated previously, there are areas out of our control. We understand investor frustrations but patience is important. As soon as we can, top line will be revealed. Stay tuned."
5. Number of patients currently alive will not be revealed. All part of top line announcement.
6. Vague information on the combo trials and partners. "We are focusing on getting to DC VAX L top line."'
7. No other information of any significance. Pretty much the same as the Rago update, with no new information. That is why the stock got slapped today. Nothing really new. Essentially, MB will provide a regurgitation and that they are excitedly awaiting unblinding. Pretty much in Rago's footsteps. Stay tuned.
Monday, June 3, the stock gets punished and will hit the mid to lower twenty cent range. As the summer wears on, with no news, the stock will hit new lows, probably mid-teens. Even with impressive top line, it won't be unequivocal or irrefutable at least in some respects. I don't expect the stock price to achieve even one dollar upon top line announcement. Much less if at all, if top line is not unequivocally impressive.
Unfortunately, if ASCO comes and goes with nothing of real significance, it is another wasted opportunity and further testament to LP/LG strategy of silence, equivocation and obfuscation. ASCO is an opportunity to change the pattern. Surely, there must be something of note that can be revealed at ASCO to mitigate assault on the stock price. If it hits new lows, much of top line news, if good, will be spent on recovering current levels. Surely, NWBO management understands this. Fingers crossed and stay tuned.
Your response made me forget.
Maybe it is just me but I think LP would be tempted, as we all would, by a $50+ billion offer.
Longfellow:
Your statement " it's not for sale" is not accurate and misleading. In a conversation with Les about a year ago, I asked him about whether NWBO management would entertain a sale of the company. Paraphrasing, he said that for the right price everything is for sale. Nothing is off the table.
The probable circumstance is that an offer that cannot be refused has not been made.....yet.
Probably, LP is reasonably certain of the cards she holds. She is not going to sell the company at a bargain sale price. And for now, BP or whoever are not willing to pay LP's price.
The fact that no one has stepped up to pay the asking price does not mean that NWBO does not have the goods. For now, buyers are on the sidelines and waiting for top line results which are close at hand. So no offers for now. JMHO.
I dunno.
Yes, indeed, it says update. However, it also says DC VAX and not DC VAX L. At this point there is little interest in an update on D or combo trials. The focus is upon L period. If there isn't significant update on L, the share price will be in free fall.
I don't expect top line. I don't think that the absence of an abstract precludes announcing it at Industry Theatre. It is possible that LP did not want to give a heads up to the shorts by abstract and possible leaks so she is playing this close to the vest. However, it is unlikely and I have a feeling that the SAPs have not been submitted yet. This is a question that will dog them at Industry Theatre. A stay tuned won't cut it and "all I can tell you is that it is a ginormous task, blah, blah, blah" will only serve to accelerate the dive in share price.
Therefore, I doubt LP is so stupid as to come into Industry Theatre with nothing but her "Crown Jewels" in hand. If nothing of substance is revealed in updating L, then I will have to agree with Scotty on his assessment of her. I am betting that it won't essentially be the same old and having MB as a presenter is positive. I think we get something and it is hard to see how they can avoid updates on SAP progress. Otherwise, we are headed quickly to new lows. JMHO.
I agree with your post. And I believe the odds of top line announcement at ASCO are small. This does not bother me or other reasonable investors.
What may be frustrating is that ASCO 2019 comes and goes without any notable update on DC VAX L. At this point, what investors are interested in are updates and focus upon DC VAX L, not the generic DC VAX as was stated as the topic for Industry Theatre. For now "D" takes a second seat. Combo trials have been scheduled in the past only to be interminably postponed for whatever reason.. A successful "L" will give much more credence and excitement for "D" and other combos. But let's get "L" done first.
Obviously, top line scheduling is not fully within the control of NWBO. A pacing--and important--item is the approval of the SAPs by the requisite RAs. We get all that.
However, I believe that there is some notable information that NWBO can disclose. They can provide status on the SAPs. Have they been completed? Have they been submitted to the RAs? When were they submitted? Have they collected all the data from all sites? Where are they with respect to the resolution of queries, etc, etc. They can easily show a chart with all the tasks required for announcing top line and where they are in the processes and which are being done in parallel. There is other information that they can share. For example, how many patients are still alive? They provided that number in the JTM. Why not an update?
I think that ASCO is a pivotal event. So do other investors who I know. There are expectations for ASCO 2019 and hopefully it will not come and go with nothing to show for it. I believe that the lack of top line announcement will negatively affect the share price. However, its' depreciation can be mitigated to some significant extent by providing new news. At the very least, SAP status. A regurgitated dog and pony show would be a huge disappointment and would be reflected in the un-necessary punishment of the share price. I certainly think that LP, LG and DI realise all this and are not going to Industry Theatre to stand there in a room with no clothes on. It is much easier to get lift-off on the share price from current levels than to have to climb out of a black-hole of new lows in the share price despite positive results. I do think that as part of management's responsibilities, they have an obligation to preserve value where they can. I believe that they are in possession of some meaningful DC VAX L updates that they can share at ASCO. After all, one of the directors at the ASM indicated that we need to get the share price up and that we should be looking for more news within three or four months. Management can do something at ASCO, even short of announcing top-line, to try and preserve that value. JMHO.