I agree with your post. And I believe the odds of top line announcement at ASCO are small. This does not bother me or other reasonable investors.
What may be frustrating is that ASCO 2019 comes and goes without any notable update on DC VAX L. At this point, what investors are interested in are updates and focus upon DC VAX L, not the generic DC VAX as was stated as the topic for Industry Theatre. For now "D" takes a second seat. Combo trials have been scheduled in the past only to be interminably postponed for whatever reason.. A successful "L" will give much more credence and excitement for "D" and other combos. But let's get "L" done first.
Obviously, top line scheduling is not fully within the control of NWBO. A pacing--and important--item is the approval of the SAPs by the requisite RAs. We get all that.
However, I believe that there is some notable information that NWBO can disclose. They can provide status on the SAPs. Have they been completed? Have they been submitted to the RAs? When were they submitted? Have they collected all the data from all sites? Where are they with respect to the resolution of queries, etc, etc. They can easily show a chart with all the tasks required for announcing top line and where they are in the processes and which are being done in parallel. There is other information that they can share. For example, how many patients are still alive? They provided that number in the JTM. Why not an update?
I think that ASCO is a pivotal event. So do other investors who I know. There are expectations for ASCO 2019 and hopefully it will not come and go with nothing to show for it. I believe that the lack of top line announcement will negatively affect the share price. However, its' depreciation can be mitigated to some significant extent by providing new news. At the very least, SAP status. A regurgitated dog and pony show would be a huge disappointment and would be reflected in the un-necessary punishment of the share price. I certainly think that LP, LG and DI realise all this and are not going to Industry Theatre to stand there in a room with no clothes on. It is much easier to get lift-off on the share price from current levels than to have to climb out of a black-hole of new lows in the share price despite positive results. I do think that as part of management's responsibilities, they have an obligation to preserve value where they can. I believe that they are in possession of some meaningful DC VAX L updates that they can share at ASCO. After all, one of the directors at the ASM indicated that we need to get the share price up and that we should be looking for more news within three or four months. Management can do something at ASCO, even short of announcing top-line, to try and preserve that value. JMHO.
