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I can certainly understand the allure to JBIs sales pitch, but once this goes on for so long and you begin to see all of the facts, issues, resistance and overwhelming evidence that demonstrate why it just isn't possible, why do people continue to believe?
I can understand if perhaps someone bought in when the price was high and now they are hoping and praying that they can recoup their investment, perhaps that explains a number of the positive investors that are just putting their best effort forward in order to regain what they have lost in this...
But tell me why they feel so strongly in JBI actually making this work and turning a profit? Please, convince me that there is a solid, no hype, no speculation, reason why they can see it is possible, on paper... (because from my informed point of view, I can not)
As I have said in the past, I would like to see this work, but with the education, background, proven business knowledge and current endeavors that are directly related to this I can honestly say that on paper it is simply not possible for JBI to succeed.
Some may take this as bashing... I am not.
I am simply searching for the solution and sharing my knowledge and expert opinion in hopes that someone can (without using unproven speculation and overinflated bs) show me where I am missing something that is key to unlocking P2O success.
Nothing about JBI has done that to this point. In fact, the more I learn about this company, the more I can see they are even further from being just an average attempt at it at best.
I am sorry if anyone on here feels offended by my posts, I am hoping that I can help by pointing out the issues that I have encountered in putting together the business model for this and sharing the stopgaps that prevent it from being commercially viable.
PLASTIC IS DIFFICULT TO EXTRACT FOR VALUE
For all of the reasons that it is difficult to obtain plastic from a waste stream for recycling would also apply to obtaining plastic from a waste stream to put it into JBI units.
The single biggest issue that creates the most troubling problem here is that JBI units can not handle mixed plastic or plastic with contaminates. Putting plastic with contaminates into the machine will cause fouling, bad gasses, bad emissions, and variations and contaminates in the fuel output as well as complex changes on a molecular level of the fuel that can render it out of spec.
In order to run the JBI machines it is necessary to sort the plastic and obtain a good, contaminate free stream of specific types of plastic. If you can achieve that you now have plastic that has value on the recycling market (more value than the oil that you can make).
If you have a sorted, contaminate free supply of post industrial plastic, it is already worth more on the recycle market than it is worth trying to turn it into oil. (and spending $50,000,000 and 4 years with no results)
Why the entire premise of JBI’s plastic to oil is FALSE-
The first problem is in the design and permit restrictions…
The JBI machines can ONLY use #2 #4 #5 and #7 plastic (and only a very limited amount of #7).
This means the plastic MUST be SORTED unlike other companies that can handle ALL plastics.
When it comes to SORTED plastic, you get what you pay for.
If you want contaminated mixed plastic that will foul up your machines and break the set emission standards, sure you can get truckloads at (only) $500 a ton.
If you want good, sorted plastic you will pay at least $750 a ton.
If you HAVE good sorted plastic you can SELL it for $750 a ton
(more than the value of the fuel you could make from it!)
If it (only) takes 8 lbs to make a gallon
and (on the best days) you get 6 US brls/ton
IT WILL COST $125/brl JUST IN PLASTIC!
OR, another way to look at it- If you just sort and sell the good plastic that is needed
to run the machines, you could MAKE MORE MONEY!
now add your $10 overhead cost (yeah, right, more like $50mill)
and you are selling $110/brl fuel for a $25 loss per barrel!!!
This math is not double dipping, or accounting for ANY of the long list of other issues previously pointed out AND it is the BEST CASE SCENARIO
(meaning min price for good sorted plastic, max yield for the process, round UP to make it juicier, minimum overhead cost, and at a sell price of $110/brl which is NOT what a WHOLESALE buyer would pay btw).
And if I was RockTenn why on earth would I put plastic in a machine (that holds no IP advantage for my business model and could make me the target of an infringement lawsuit) to turn it into anything.... and lose time and money.... when I could sell the plastic on the open market FOR MORE MONEY and do nothing to it? Why does RockTenn landfill plastic now you ask… simple- IT COST MORE TO SEPARATE IT THAN ITS WORTH!
Just another additional added point to all of the other problems....
Landfill plastic cost time and money to extract it,
once its extracted it has MORE VALUE AS RECYCLED PLASTIC than it has turning it into oil.
http://www.plasticsnews.com/resin/recycled-plastics/current-pricing
When you are permitted to ONLY use landfill plastic and you can ONLY put half of the landfill plastic in the machine or you create toxins and deadly corrosive gasses that will rust and foul up your machine and break emission regulations... then you have MORE PROBLEMS.
Once you spend the time and money to extract HALF of the landfill plastic that you can use, what do you do with the other half? Pay to put it in a landfill (ANOTHER UNMENTIONED ADDED COST) and if you actually started doing this on a regular basis or somehow managed to run at maximum capacity, in a years time you will have dumped well over 100,000 tons of UNUSABLE plastic into a landfill! (that would put you on the map as one of the biggest plastic contributors to negative environmental impact in the state of NY if not the country,… talk about bad PR for a company attempting to gain an earth friendly image)
I have not seen or heard of ANY plastic processing equipment or methods mentioned for JBI... if they were doing this it would be a good idea to let them know that they could qualify for recycling status if they sold the plastic that they separated... and between the break even cost of doing this and the recycling subsides they could get, they might just make a buck or two... oh, that's right, that would get used to pay for the dumping license they would need to get rid of that much BAD plastic that they can't use!
In the end it will become obvious why making oil for only $10 a brl on a commercial level is a misguided fraud...
And why waste management companies don’t find it commercially viable to sort and sell recycled plastic headed to a landfill…
and after 4 years and $50mill it should have become even more obvious that...
MAKING OIL FOR ONLY $10/brl IT IS A LIE.
(Why perpetual motion machines don’t work-
energy in = energy out with loss… ($50,000,000 loss and growing)
THERE IS NO WAY TO GET MORE OUT THAN YOU PUT IN!)
THE PLASTIC HAS A VALUE GREATER THAN THE VALUE OF THE OIL YOU CAN PRODUCE!!!!!!!!!!!!
and government recycling subsidies make sure that this holds true
Why the term 'JUGGERNAUT' is the perfect descriptor for JBI-
"something that demands blind devotion or merciless sacrifice" was coined in the mid-19th century. For example, it was used to describe the out-of-control character Hyde in Robert Louis Stevenson's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
Another interesting point that keeps being referred to is the catalyst...
Does anyone here even understand what a catalyst is or does???
There is a lot of misguided reference that portrays the catalyst as some magic solution that somehow makes JBIs process do something more than any other cracking process...
simply misguided use of a concept that is not doing anything that you are led to believe... even if it was (very doubtful) something new or secret. The reason for using a catalyst and the reference that it is being used in on this board are two completely different things.
But it is amusing to see how this is twisted into being the mystery, ever secret, saving grace of JBI and its incredibly revolutionary technology that has failed to prove commercially viable!
If there was some great discovery that no one else had, it would be a good idea to start using it, or better yet, license it to the oil industry and make hundreds of millions for this allegedly incredibly valuable technology! (oh, let me guess, it defies chemistry and somehow only applies to plastic hydrocarbons… )
If that is true, then my apologies for the misunderstanding.
However, the premise remains...
You can not make a profit when the cost associated with the feedstock is more than the value of the output.
Therefore, the argument, regardless of the timing is still the same-
How can JBIs CEO state CFP when the cost of feedstock is more than the value of the oil output???
Is there any truth in any of the statements made by JBI?
So if I understand correctly based on this post,
a phone call was made to JBIs CEO on February 20, 2013
during that call it was stated-
“I just talked to CEO Kevin Rauber: I asked about how the company was doing and about improved communication with shareholders.
He reiterated cash flow positive in the 1st quarter of 2013.”
Yet the company filed their Operations Update on February 11, 2013
Which was 9 days earlier than the alleged phone call and must have been prepared with facts known about prior to February 11, 2013 and certainly prior to the phone conversation on February 20, 2013.
The Operations Update states-
“Revised positive cash flow timing”
“These delays will preclude the Company from achieving cash-flow positive results during the first quarter of 2013”
How is it possible that the CEO does not know that the company has filed statements 9 days earlier that say no CFP Q1 yet he say CFP Q1???
Is he that incompetent and out of touch with JBI the company he is CEO of?
Or
Did he lie in the filing?
Or
Did he lie in the phone conversation?
Or
Is there another explanation for the lie?????
This leads us to wonder what else the CEO of JBI is incompetent and out of touch about...
OR
What else is a LIE
Now, how can anyone believe anything that JBI states?
Is anything in the phone conversation true?
How can it be believed that JBI can make oil for $10 a barrel?
How can years of unproven statements that never come true be taken with any amount of credibility?
It has become clear that John, the former CEO had a long proven list of false claims and flat out lies, now the new CEO has picked up right where the old CEO left off and is beginning a list for himself.
Unless, of course there is another explanation for the source of the lies and false claims… hmmmm
Regardless, it would be good to get a documented explanation from the current CEO as to how he can possible make oil for a profit when the materials and overhead cost more than the output generated.
Better yet, it would be good to get a detailed expense report that breaks out the cost and overhead of the feedstock, and a detailed balance sheet on the specific sales and the associated revenues gained from just the oil that may or may not have been produced and may or may not have been sold.
If this specific data is not demonstrated in detail in the next filing it makes you seriously wonder about the competency of the company’s management. OR it makes you seriously wonder about the motives of all involved.
Anyone with a significant investment in JBI should seriously consider demanding a third party audit. Specifically targeting past expenses as well as current operations. I say this because it is conceivable that it could uncover some interesting facts.
I am not about to allege fraud without proof, however, if I were to be in demand of an audit it would be to uncover the true cost of producing oil from plastic.
Lets consider one possibility that could be uncovered (not saying that this is true, just a hypothetical ‘what if’)-
What if, For years the company makes payments to another company for good, sorted plastic to be delivered at a later date. What if, Those payments are buried away in obscure corners of the CTDB. What if, Perhaps a key player from another company that has plastic sales can act as an insider to help the situation along (Hmmm). What if, Then at a future date the payments stop but the deliveries begin. Now, What if, the current cost of plastic is lost in previous quarters but the current quarter numbers begin to show positive cash flow and the premise of the process appears to prove commercially viable, or at least for a time, until the previous paid for plastic supply runs out.
This demonstration of What if, is only made possible by the obvious lack of credibility demonstrated by the company and by the obvious flaw in the fundamental premise of commercial viability of P2O particularly when you are permitted to ONLY use specific types of plastic.
The problem remains that the value of the plastic is more than the value of the oil that can be made.
Furthermore, if plastic was free it is free for a reason, because it has no value to anyone including JBI. The cost to make the free plastic have value is more than the value of the plastic which again is more than the value of the oil that can be made.
Therefore, unless it can be demonstrated in black and white in detailed balance sheets prepared by an unbiased third party, the credibility of any of JBIs future statements and filings is in serious question.
Exactly my point!
Landfill plastic is not economically viable for cities to recycle for the same reasons that it is not economically viable for JBI to use.
The SAIC report is obsolete.
Nothing in the report is based on testing of the current revised process or the current redesigned machines.
Until additional testing is done on the CURRENT operation NONE of the past conclusions can be relied upon.
And it seems that they couldn't be relied upon in the past either or there would not have been a need to change and redesign the process and machines again and again and still not be up and running 4 years AFTER the overinflated and yet unproven claims were originally made.
Aside from that, it is not possible to turn $750 worth of plastic into $660 worth of oil and turn a profit.
Well, its either fake it or blow the plant up and collect on the insurance.
Or perhaps both... coverup the coverup ;)
I was asked my opinion... so I replied with what I see here as obvious... There is no way to take plastic that is worth more than the oil that can be produced and be profitable unless you fake it.
When a company is faced with the possibility of failure it is conceivable that they could do something unthinkable, as history demonstrates.
From what I have read and been led to believe, my opinion is that the SEC may have had a valid point that was addressed and it played out just as it would have for any other company.
I believe that the propaganda mill turned this into something much more than what it was.
My bigger fear would be that JBI has been buying and stockpiling large amounts of plastic over the last few years and hiding the expenses.
The idea would be an internal coverup to one day start running the machines (perhaps in the last quarter) using this previously paid for plastic and showing a substantial profit in that quarter, but conveniently hiding the actual cost which is buried in past expenditures of previous quarters.
This has obvious implications in PR, investor confidence and the potential for fabricated growth.
I suspect that eventually they will get caught and perhaps reviled as some type of ponzi scheme.
I only say this based on the fact that I know what it takes to run one of these machines and I know that the plastic needed will cost more than the oil that can be produced. So the only way to make this work is to fake it.
Who’s to know if your soul will fade at all?
The one you sold to fool the world
You lost your self-esteem along the way, yeah
Good god, you're comin’ up with reasons
Good god, you're draggin’ it out
And good god, it's the changin’ of the seasons
I feel so right, so follow me down and just
Fake it, if you’re out of direction
Fake it, if you don't belong,
yeah Fake it, if you feel like infection
Whoa, you’re such a f***in’ hypocrite
SEETHER
I have researched and studied all of these companies and found the same issue holds true. Either they come to the realization that the output is impossible to consistently control and then has oxidation issues, or they have significant feedstock supply issues (cost more to obtain than the output is worth).
The biggest advantage that many of these companies have is that they can process all types of plastic. Even still, the slightest contamination causes problems.
Many of the same issues that JBI is facing have already played out many times over in years previous for these companies and they are all on shaky ground in the US and Europe. The only successful companies that are doing this profitably are in Asia where labor is cheap, emissions (powers that be) are more forgiving and plastic is overall much cheaper to obtain/sort/clean.
But you do have to admit that there is a fundamental problem, that the required feedstock cost more to obtain than the value of the fuel it can make...
Perhaps on a short run or a gift of good free plastic this can produce perfect results,
but on a commercially viable scale,
the shear volume of feedstock is not able to be obtained consistently without a significant cost (more cost than economically feasible to turn a profit)
We are not talking about hand sorting a pickup truck load here.
This requires massive amounts of plastic. Sorted out into specific types. Free of contamination (all the hype about putting dirty contaminated plastic into the machine is simply not true, there is a lot going on inside a pyrolytic reactor and if you put the wrong chemicals in it could prove devastating, deadly, or at the least disruptive to the process and output results).
The ability to sort, and decontaminate plastic is the bottleneck.
If you can successfully do it to the level needed for P2O you have successfully created a level of recycled plastic that can be sold for more money. That alone is the problem. Recycling and waste management companies have faced this challenge for years and have determined that it is not profitable. So how can a new company with no proven method suddenly pioneer a secondary process in order to support the primary process that poses just as much of a challenge?
If JBI can solve the supply issue and sort plastic for a profit to make P2O profitable they will have conquered two previously unachievable breakthroughs. But once that first one happens, recyclers and waste management companies will make the availability of waste plastic unattainable because they will have a more profitable commodity in the recycling of plastic.
I can certainly understand the allure to JBIs sales pitch, but once this goes on for so long and you begin to see all of the facts, issues, resistance and overwhelming evidence that demonstrate why it just isn't possible, why do you continue to believe?
I can understand if perhaps you bought in when the price was high and now you are hoping and praying that you can recoup your investment, perhaps that explains a number of the positive investors that are just putting their best effort forward in order to regain what they have lost in this...
But tell me why you feel so strongly in JBI actually making this work and turning a profit? Please, convince me that there is a solid, no hype, no speculation, reason why you can see it is possible, on paper... (because from my informed point of view, I can not)
As I have said in the past, I would like to see this work, but with the education, background, proven business knowledge and current endeavors that are directly related to this I can honestly say that on paper it is simply not possible for JBI to succeed.
Some may take this as bashing... I am not.
I am simply searching for the solution and sharing my knowledge and expert opinion in hopes that someone can (without using unproven speculation and overinflated bs) show me where I am missing something that is key to unlocking P2O success.
Nothing about JBI has done that to this point. In fact, the more I learn about this company, the more I can see they are even further from being just an average attempt at it at best.
I am sorry if anyone on here feels offended by my posts, I am hoping that I can help by pointing out the issues that I have encountered in putting together the business model for this and sharing the stopgaps that prevent it from being commercially viable.
The question in WHY?
When someone invests in a company with so many problems, no proof of concept, a constantly changing process/design/business plan, and constant high burn of capital, and no way to make feedstock that is worth more than the output profitable... the question is WHY?
_________________________________________
but the bigger question is (still) WHY?
When there are hundreds of pyrolysis companies in Asia for nearly 20 years now and only a few struggling ones in Europe and America it begs the question WHY?
When anyone can buy a PATENTED machine from China or India for under $100,000 and it even comes with company reps to set it up and run it for a month while they teach you how to use it... it begs the question WHY?
When a company is at it for 4 years and they spend $50,000,000 and still do not have a commercially viable operation it begs the question WHY?
The answer to all of the questions is simple,
There is a concerted effort to prevent the production of oil through any company that is not directly tied to the oil industry.
Every time someone gets even close there is a magic shift in law, emissions, or, in the case of P2O, recycling subsidies that keep the goal just out of reach.
Plastic is worth more than the oil,
and as the P2O process gets close to working,
the price of plastic will go up again,
(just out of reach for P2O to be commercially viable)
Obviously not true in Asia for many reasons...
but in the US and Europe it will not happen.
If you want proof, review history
If you want more proof, look at the present (4 years and $50,000,000)
More proof... watch and see
Logistics… the killer is in the details boys
Has anyone bothered to do the simple math?
That picture shows a truck full of bailed plastic and another picture of two tanker trucks.
From my experience I know that the bails, which are not ground plastic, (ground plastic of the desired types weighs in at around 1000lbs for a 4x4x4 container) would weigh, at best around 500lbs (that’s being very generous but lets use that to make the math easier).
So, a maximum size trailer at 60ft long (not in NY... only 48') can hold 60 bails (15 deep x 2 wide x 2 tall). In the picture it seems that they are using 2’ tall bails and only stacking them 3 high, but let’s be more generous and try to help the numbers out here (and hope that they can get a better handle on the situation to improve their shipping cost).
From this we can conclude- that each truck delivers 30,000lbs of plastic. (maybe up to 40,000 but not likely based on the obvious amount of voids (crushed bottles, paper and cardboard)in the picture)
Now we know that it takes 8-10lbs of plastic to produce a gallon of fuel.
But wait, 10-12% will result in off gasses,
And 2-4% will end up as char,
And unwashed, unsorted (simply not possible) plastic can contain upwards of 20-50% contamination… but lets be generous and only say 6% so we can again make the math easy to follow (and avoid the pumpers accusing misguided extremes).
That means that on average, 11% + 3% + 6% = 20% that will not end up as fuel.
But wait… there’s more…
From the picture (and personal experience) it can clearly be seen that this is mixed plastic (logistical nightmare).
From the JBI website we know that they can only use #2, #4, #5 and #7 (highly doubt that #7 is true… more on that later).
Now it is clear that at least half of the plastic is unusable, only 3 of the 9 plastics are usable so it may be much more than 50% and especially since PETE #1 accounts for a large percentage of post consumer waste (soft drinks, sports drinks, water, juice and milk… usually any clear bottle or container) and #9 ABS is one of the most abundantly used plastics for consumer electronics like PCs, TVs, household items and gadgets. Lets not forget the incredibly fast growing trend of bio-plastics which is typically starch or cellulose based and would result in catastrophic consequences (really big boom) if accidentally mixed into a catalytic cracking reactor in any substantial amount.
Btw- it is estimated that the mass majority of consumer plastic will be bio-plastic by the end of this decade… (better hope Johnny boy has a secret catalyst that can take the oxygen out of bio-plastic or the days of P2O are surely numbered)
Read more: Types of Plastic Bottles | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_5505346_types-plastic-bottles.html#ixzz2IjSii3gk
Also any packaging that comes from China (all those clear blister packs that are a pain to open) are so full of nasty fillers that there is no way to run them without fouling things up or producing dangerous and problematic compounds (ever wonder why all that plastic that comes from China never seems to have a recycle number on it).
So now we are down to only 30% of that 30,000lbs that will become fuel to fill the tankers… that means only 9000lbs per truckload. (probably more like 5000lbs)
Therefore; each 6000 gallon tanker requires (being very generous) 6 truckloads of plastic!
If you want to gauge output someone should start counting trucks in for delivery. (are there steady streams of trucks delivering enormous amounts of plastic every day???)
[Critical side note; If the 2 machines were actually running at full capacity that would require at minimum, 50 trucks a day. Btw, how big is the delivery bay, the warehouse, the sorting area? How many people are currently working at the plant? Do you realize how much manpower and overhead is required to manage, unload, sort and warehouse 50 truckloads? Tap,tap,tap… is anyone in there?]
This is just the tip of the iceberg… the manpower to extract the useable from the unusable plastic, the space and equipment, and the disposal (shipping and disposal cost) of the unusable plastic and the shear logistics is a considerable amount of seemingly unaccounted overhead. (plus the bad press and negative rap that will come from JBI becoming the leading contributor of plastic waste to landfills for the 750,000lbs of unusable plastic that they will have to dispose of EVERY DAY if this actually gets up and running)
Oh, that’s not a problem you say… they will just get good sources of free plastic….
Fat chance!
Good, sorted plastic, of the type that is needed is selling for $600-$1500 a ton and the price is increasing every day, the prices have doubled in the last 2 years.
http://www.plasticsnews.com/resin/recycled-plastics/current-pricing
Maybe we should do more math on the overhead cost of useable plastic and extrapolate the profit margin. The $10 per barrel cost assumes FREE plastic with NO overhead.
The logistics are the killer in the details.
There is so much more that you are in the dark about, why do you think the oil companies have sat on many patents pertaining to this for so long? Why is it that P2O was discovered way back when plastic was invented yet the plastics industry has ignored it?
Why aren’t the polymer chemists, the petroleum engineers and the waste management specialists doing this (the people trained in the art with knowledge, experience and expertise) but a lowly data technician comes along with some snake oil and you automatically assume that his fast talking sales pitch is the cure-all. Somehow a guy with no credibility and an obvious negative history is going to school the experts.
One last question to consider-
Why not focus on running just one machine and produce product? If it was logistically and financially sound, why not just let the chicken lay the golden eggs and not raise money to build a chicken farm?
For the savvy investor it is wise to do your homework… otherwise you are not investing YOU ARE GAMBLING! (sad part is you obviously don’t know the rules to the game).
Just heads I win, tales you lose’n
Why the term 'JUGGERNAUT' is the perfect descriptor for JBI-
"something that demands blind devotion or merciless sacrifice" was coined in the mid-19th century. For example, it was used to describe the out-of-control character Hyde in Robert Louis Stevenson's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
Good job researching this topic, however; it might be good to read the entire articles and not just take points out of context to support your argument...
In contrast, if we take your argument for what it is, THIS POSES A BIGGER PROBLEM which exactly supports my point... PLASTIC IS DIFFICULT TO EXTRACT FOR VALUE which is the same argument that I am making. For all of the reasons that it is difficult to obtain plastic from a waste stream for recycling would also apply to obtaining plastic from a waste stream to put it into JBI units.
The single biggest issue that creates the most troubling problem here is that JBI units can not handle mixed plastic or plastic with contaminates. Putting plastic with contaminates into the machine will cause fouling, bad gasses, bad emissions, and variations and contaminates in the fuel output as well as complex changes on a molecular level of the fuel that can render it out of spec.
In order to run the JBI machines it is necessary to sort the plastic and obtain a good, contaminate free stream of specific types of plastic. If you can achieve that you now have plastic that has value on the recycling market (more value than the oil that you can make).
If you have a sorted, contaminate free supply of post industrial plastic, it is already worth more on the recycle market than it is worth trying to turn it into oil. (and spending $50,000,000 and 4 years with no results)
So, with all of the added supporting evidence that you provided in your post, you have led us right back to supporting the premise-
Why the entire premise of JBI’s plastic to oil is FALSE-
The first problem is in the design and permit restrictions…
The JBI machines can ONLY use #2 #4 #5 and #7 plastic (and only a very limited amount of #7).
This means the plastic MUST be SORTED unlike other companies that can handle ALL plastics.
When it comes to SORTED plastic, you get what you pay for.
If you want contaminated mixed plastic that will foul up your machines and break the set emission standards, sure you can get truckloads at (only) $500 a ton.
If you want good, sorted plastic you will pay at least $750 a ton.
If you HAVE good sorted plastic you can SELL it for $750 a ton
(more than the value of the fuel you could make from it!)
If it (only) takes 8 lbs to make a gallon
and (on the best days) you get 6 US brls/ton
IT WILL COST $125/brl JUST IN PLASTIC!
OR, another way to look at it- If you just sort and sell the good plastic that is needed
to run the machines, you could MAKE MORE MONEY!
now add your $10 overhead cost (yeah, right, more like $50mill)
and you are selling $110/brl fuel for a $25 loss per barrel!!!
This math is not double dipping, or accounting for ANY of the long list of other issues previously pointed out AND it is the BEST CASE SCENARIO
(meaning min price for good sorted plastic, max yield for the process, round UP to make it juicier, minimum overhead cost, and at a sell price of $110/brl which is NOT what a WHOLESALE buyer would pay btw).
And if I was RockTenn why on earth would I put plastic in a machine (that holds no IP advantage for my business model and could make me the target of an infringement lawsuit) to turn it into anything.... and lose time and money.... when I could sell the plastic on the open market FOR MORE MONEY and do nothing to it? Why does RockTenn landfill plastic now you ask… simple- IT COST MORE TO SEPARATE IT THAN ITS WORTH!
Just another additional added point to all of the other problems....
Landfill plastic cost time and money to extract it,
once its extracted it has MORE VALUE AS RECYCLED PLASTIC than it has turning it into oil.
http://www.plasticsnews.com/resin/recycled-plastics/current-pricing
When you are permitted to ONLY use landfill plastic and you can ONLY put half of the landfill plastic in the machine or you create toxins and deadly corrosive gasses that will rust and foul up your machine and break emission regulations... then you have MORE PROBLEMS.
Once you spend the time and money to extract HALF of the landfill plastic that you can use, what do you do with the other half? Pay to put it in a landfill (ANOTHER UNMENTIONED ADDED COST) and if you actually started doing this on a regular basis or somehow managed to run at maximum capacity, in a years time you will have dumped well over 100,000 tons of UNUSABLE plastic into a landfill! (that would put you on the map as one of the biggest plastic contributors to negative environmental impact in the state of NY if not the country,… talk about bad PR for a company attempting to gain an earth friendly image)
I have not seen or heard of ANY plastic processing equipment or methods mentioned for JBI... if they were doing this it would be a good idea to let them know that they could qualify for recycling status if they sold the plastic that they separated... and between the break even cost of doing this and the recycling subsides they could get, they might just make a buck or two... oh, that's right, that would get used to pay for the dumping license they would need to get rid of that much BAD plastic that they can't use!
In the end it will become obvious why making oil for only $10 a brl on a commercial level is a misguided fraud...
And why waste management companies don’t find it commercially viable to sort and sell recycled plastic headed to a landfill…
and after 4 years and $50mill it should have become even more obvious that...
MAKING OIL FOR ONLY $10/brl IT IS A LIE.
(Why perpetual motion machines don’t work-
energy in = energy out with loss… ($50,000,000 loss and growing)
THERE IS NO WAY TO GET MORE OUT THAN YOU PUT IN!)
THE PLASTIC HAS A VALUE GREATER THAN THE VALUE OF THE OIL YOU CAN PRODUCE!!!!!!!!!!!!
and government recycling subsidies make sure that this holds true
I can't wait to see how the story ends...
I'm betting on either-
JBI getting caught fudging the production to make it appear that they are finally up and running,
or
JBI blowing the plant up to collect on insurance.
Yes,
earth shattering, but only for those that buy every word of the JBI sales pitch without knowing what is really going on.
For those of us in the know, with the proper education and understanding of chemical engineering, it is well known and non earth shattering common knowledge.
If you would like to teach yourself chemistry here is a link to a basic chemistry course-
http://www.docbrown.info/page04/OilProducts05.htm
Notice the references to unsaturated hydrocarbons which are not found in crude oil but are made by cracking. This is chemistry 101 for cracking and one of the most basic and understood principles.
You can not take a long chain molecule of plastic and crack it without creating chains that are missing hydrogen. And there is no easy or cost effective way to simply add hydrogen to the molecules.
Test the results of cracking and you can pass the fuel spec, but give it a few days and the fuel will oxidize (an accelerated effect similar to what happens over the winter to the fuel you leave in your lawn mower) and become out of spec.
earth shattering... perhaps for everyone that does not understand the basic chemistry and is betting the farm on a sales pitch.
And here lies the OTHER major issue...
In spec fuel
Test it today and it's in spec
Test it in two weeks and see what you have.
Pyrolysis produces UNSATURATED fuel.
The cost to make this in spec fuel have a commercially viable shelf life is more than the fuel is worth.
And yes, it can be argued that they have not perfected the process...
It was stated by the company for years that they have everything they need to start producing yet they continue to make changes to the design and process.
if it was perfected they would have been running years ago.
and they would have valid patents
and they would be selling and or licensing the perfected technology
none of which are happening
Yes, it would be a great thing to see JBI succeed!
They are doing all the groundwork to prove concept and demonstrate all of the hurdles in grand public fashion for everyone to see.
They reveal all of the necessary blueprints in their public filings and patent applications, show all of the political and business stepping stones and they PR spin all of the issues in grandiose fashion.
It is a no cost, comedy laden, basis for a real business plan.
We really do hope they succeed, we will copy it in a second and be one up to avoid all of the missteps that have been so painstakingly demonstrating.
Problem is, the entire business model that they are obviously following is flawed. Based on numbers that are 5 years old, back when it was actually possible to acquire feedstock at a much lower cost.
With the obvious influence of the power that be it is clear that the goal is being placed just out of reach by simply subsidizing recycling and conveniently excluding P2O from the club.
P2O works very well,
Commercialization of P2O, well, that is another story....
Sorry, my mistake, the SAIC report states that the RockTenn site will cost $6.5mill and $2mill in construction cost...
So JBI will be giving away $8,500,000 to RockTenn.
That is correct,
The regulations make it impossible to make this commercially viable in the US and in Europe.
When you have to use sorted plastic of specific types in order to comply with regulations you price this right out of existence.
By the time you spend the money sorting the plastic you create a feedstock that is worth more than the oil that you can produce.
If it was financially viable to sort the plastic then there would not be plastic going to landfills, it would be sorted and sold as recycled plastic for more money.
The fundamental problem is that it cost as much to sort it as it is worth. And that is BEFORE you add the ADDITIONAL cost to try to turn it into fuel that is worth even less.
On a completely different note....
If I understand correctly,
JBI is going to build a machine and GIVE it to RockTenn to put in Jacksonville FL so that RockTenn can run THEIR plastic and produce fuel that THEY (RockTenn) GET TO KEEP.
So what's in it for JBI???
From the numerous posts that I have read about this I can not see where there is an advantage to JBI. JBI has to FRONT the cost of a machine that is estimated to cost $3.5mill plus $2mill to put it there... so $5.5mill out of pocket, upfront, and RockTenn keeps the fuel....
That doesn't exactly sound like a sound business move.
It also doesn't sound like any market confidence when you have to front the equipment and make no money off of what is touted to be so incredibly valuable.
Even GIVING IT AWAY there is no long line of takers!
perplexing
EXACTLY my point!
Thank you!
Hmmm, more interesting, I will refer everyone to the falling stock price, loss of millions, loss of years, constant redesign, company excuses and-
STILL NO RESULTS!
Facts are facts, JBI has not demonstrated ANYTHING different!
When there are hundreds of pyrolysis companies in Asia for nearly 20 years now and only a few struggling ones in Europe and America it begs the question WHY?
When anyone can buy a PATENTED machine from China or India for under $100,000 and it even comes with company reps to set it up and run it for a month while they teach you how to use it... it begs the question WHY?
When a company is at it for 4 years and they spend $50,000,000 and still do not have a commercially viable operation it begs the question WHY?
The answer to all of the questions is simple,
There is a concerted effort to prevent the production of oil through any company that is not directly tied to the oil industry.
Every time someone gets even close there is a magic shift in law, emissions, or, in the case of P2O, recycling subsidies that keep the goal just out of reach.
Obviously not true in Asia for many reasons...
but in the US and Europe it will not happen.
If you want proof, review history
If you want more proof, look at the present (4 years and $50,000,000)
More proof... watch and see
Why the entire premise of JBI’s plastic to oil is FALSE-
The first problem is in the design and permit restrictions…
The JBI machines can ONLY use #2 #4 #5 and #7 plastic (and only a very limited amount of #7).
This means the plastic MUST be SORTED unlike other companies that can handle ALL plastics.
When it comes to SORTED plastic, you get what you pay for.
If you want contaminated mixed plastic that will foul up your machines and break the set emission standards, sure you can get truckloads at (only) $500 a ton.
If you want good, sorted plastic you will pay at least $750 a ton.
If you HAVE good sorted plastic you can SELL it for $750 a ton
(more than the value of the fuel you could make from it!)
If it (only) takes 8 lbs to make a gallon
and (on the best days) you get 6 US brls/ton
IT WILL COST $125/brl JUST IN PLASTIC!
OR, another way to look at it- If you just sort and sell the good plastic that is needed
to run the machines, you could MAKE MORE MONEY!
now add your $10 overhead cost (yeah, right, more like $50mill)
and you are selling $110/brl fuel for a $25 loss per barrel!!!
This math is not double dipping, or accounting for ANY of the long list of other issues previously pointed out AND it is the BEST CASE SCENARIO
(meaning min price for good sorted plastic, max yield for the process, round UP to make it juicier, minimum overhead cost, and at a sell price of $110/brl which is NOT what a WHOLESALE buyer would pay btw).
And if I was RockTenn why on earth would I put plastic in a machine (that holds no IP advantage for my business model and could make me the target of an infringement lawsuit) to turn it into anything.... and lose time and money.... when I could sell the plastic on the open market FOR MORE MONEY and do nothing to it? Why does RockTenn landfill plastic now you ask… simple- IT COST MORE TO SEPARATE IT THAN ITS WORTH!
Just another additional point to all of the other problems....
Landfill plastic cost time and money to extract it,
once its extracted it has MORE VALUE AS RECYCLED PLASTIC than it has turning it into oil.
http://www.plasticsnews.com/resin/recycled-plastics/current-pricing
When you are permitted to ONLY use landfill plastic and you can ONLY put half of the landfill plastic in the machine or you create toxins and deadly corrosive gasses that will rust and foul up your machine and break emission regulations... then you have MORE PROBLEMS.
Once you spend the time and money to extract HALF of the landfill plastic that you can use, what do you do with the other half? Pay to put it in a landfill (ANOTHER UNMENTIONED ADDED COST) and if you actually started doing this on a regular basis or somehow managed to run at maximum capacity, in a years time you will have dumped well over 100,000 tons of UNUSABLE plastic into a landfill! (that would put you on the map as one of the biggest plastic contributors to negative environmental impact in the state of NY if not the country,… talk about bad PR for a company attempting to gain an earth friendly image)
I have not seen or heard of ANY plastic processing equipment or methods mentioned for JBI... if they were doing this it would be a good idea to let them know that they could qualify for recycling status if they sold the plastic that they separated... and between the break even cost of doing this and the recycling subsides they could get, they might just make a buck or two... oh, that's right, that would get used to pay for the dumping license they would need to get rid of that much BAD plastic that they can't use!
In the end it will become obvious why making oil for only $10 a brl on a commercial level is a misguided fraud...
And why waste management companies don’t find it commercially viable to sort and sell recycled plastic headed to a landfill…
and after 4 years and $50mill it should have become even more obvious that...
MAKING OIL FOR ONLY $10/brl IT IS A LIE.
(Why perpetual motion machines don’t work-
energy in = energy out with loss… ($50,000,000 loss and growing)
THERE IS NO WAY TO GET MORE OUT THAN YOU PUT IN!)
THE PLASTIC HAS A VALUE GREATER THAN THE VALUE OF THE OIL YOU CAN PRODUCE!!!!!!!!!!!!
and government recycling subsidies make sure that this holds true
I can't wait to see how the story ends...
I'm betting on either-
JBI getting caught fudging the production to make it appear that they are finally up and running,
or
JBI blowing the plant up to collect on insurance.
Good, Bad and Otherwise, I don't just think it I live it every day.
If only you knew...
If the concept that JBI has pitched were commercially viable we would have already been doing it years ago, and even back then there were considerable hurdles that were not directly tied to just the dollars and cents. Back then it was much easier than today and it wasn't possible then.
It really all comes down to who you know, greasing the right palms and taking care of those that see you as a threat, apparently none of which JBI has correctly perused if they were really attempting to make this work.
If things were easy as fishing you could be a musician
If you could make sounds loud or mellow
Get a second hand guitar
Chances are you'll go far
If you get in with the right bunch of fellows, BTO
In addition, with all of the changes, modifications, and alleged improvements to the machines... any and all studies that were done prior are now invalid as they were not done on the CURRENT operations.
One can not assume that change = improvement without actually having it retested by an independent third party (doing so would be fraud)
That's not true...
show me where, in any published report, that took ALL of the necessary data into account, to prove that commercial viability was possible.
The cost of the plastic or the overhead to obtain it MUST be accounted for in your answer...
Thank you for all of the great supporting evidence as to why JBI can not make this work!
I encourage everyone to carefully read the details in RAW's post BECAUSE IT ALL APPLIES TO JBI!
THESE ARE THE EXACT SAME REASONS WHY P2O IS NOT COMMERCIALLY VIABLE!
eventually you will see why there are substantial plastic supply issues
and then you will see that the plastic that you need to run the machines WILL COST MORE THAN THE OIL YOU CAN PRODUCE!
bravo, great job!
Not a single one of those links explain how-
$750 WORTH OF PLASTIC = $660 WORTH OF FUEL
FOR A LOSS OF $90 A TON!
AND THAT'S BEFORE $50,000,000 OF OVERHEAD
SORT AND SELL THE PLASTIC, COLLECT THE RECYCLING SUBSIDIES AND YOU WILL BARELY BREAK EVEN!
SORT THE PLASTIC AND PUT IT IN THE MACHINE AND YOU LOSE $50,000,090+
DEAD WRONG is right=
Polycarbonate/Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (PC/ABS) – A blend of PC and ABS that creates a stronger plastic. Used in car interior and exterior parts, and mobile phone bodies.
Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) – Electronic equipment cases (e.g., computer monitors, printers, keyboards), drainage pipe.
The majority of automotive plastic IS UNABLE TO BE USED IN JBI's MACHINES by restrictions imposed by their permitting.
These are the EXACT plastics that cause issues (no melting point) as well as producing toxins, bad gasses, (hydrogen cyanide) and environmental damage when run thru a pyrolsys machine.
Chlorinated plastic is only ONE of MANY that can't be used in JBI's machines...
You would think that if they were going to buy a Chinese machine and copy it that they could have at least chosen one that processes ALL plastic, there are several PATENTED units available from China for under $100,000
In addition... all of the touting of the SAIC and other independent testing that has been constantly posted as proof of concept, commercial viability and that the company is not a scam, well...
With all of the rework, addition of pre-pre melter, addition of heat transfer fluid, design fixes and changes....
The independent third party testing conclusions are no longer valid!
There is no credibility to any previous testing now that the machines, process and operations have been changed.
However, it is obvious from the lack of results, the lack of sales revenue AND the need to rework that the reports were based on obscured and incomplete data,.. smoke and mirrors, anyway.
Now that the third party conclusions have been ANNIHILATED, it appears it is time to have another pomp and circumstance third party test so that there is something new to use as propaganda to keep this alive just a little longer.
I can't wait to see how the story ends...
I'm betting on either-
JBI getting caught fudging the production to make it appear that they are finally up and running,
or
JBI blowing the plant up to collect on insurance.
Why the entire premise of JBI’s plastic to oil is FALSE-
(a detail man will pickup on the scam right away)
When it comes to plastic, you get what you pay for.
If you want contaminated mixed plastic that will foul up your machines and break the set emission standards, sure you can get truckloads at (only) $500 a ton.
If you want good, sorted plastic you will pay at least $750 a ton.
If you HAVE good sorted plastic you can SELL it for $750 a ton
(more than the value of the fuel you could make from it!)
If it (only) takes 8 lbs to make a gallon
and (on the best days) you get 6 US brls/ton
IT WILL COST $125/brl JUST IN PLASTIC!
OR, another way to look at it- If you just sort and sell the good plastic that is needed
to run the machines, you could MAKE MORE MONEY!
now add your $10 overhead cost (yeah, right, more like $50mill)
and you are selling $110/brl fuel for a $25 loss per barrel!!!
This math is not double dipping, or accounting for ANY of the long list of other issues previously pointed out AND it is the BEST CASE SCENARIO
(meaning min price for good sorted plastic, max yield for the process, round UP to make it juicier, minimum overhead cost, and at a sell price of $110/brl which is NOT what a WHOLESALE buyer would pay btw).
And if I was RockTenn why on earth would I put plastic in a machine (that holds no IP advantage for my business model and could make me the target of an infringement lawsuit) to turn it into anything.... and lose time and money.... when I could sell the plastic on the open market FOR MORE MONEY and do nothing to it?
Just another an added point to all of the other problems....
Landfill plastic cost time and money to extract it,
once its extracted it has MORE VALUE AS RECYCLED PLASTIC than it has turning it into oil.
http://www.plasticsnews.com/resin/recycled-plastics/current-pricing
When you are permitted to ONLY use landfill plastic and you can ONLY put half of the landfill plastic in the machine or you create toxins and deadly corrosive gasses that will rust and foul up your machine and break emission regulations... then you have MORE PROBLEMS.
Once you spend the time and money to extract HALF of the landfill plastic that you can use, what do you do with the other half? Pay to put it in a landfill (ANOTHER UNMENTIONED ADDED COST) and if you actually started doing this on a regular basis or somehow managed to run at maximum capacity, in a years time you will have dumped well over 100,000 tons of UNUSABLE plastic into a landfill! (that would put you on the map as one of the biggest plastic contributors to negative environmental impact in the state of NY if not the country,… talk about bad PR for a company attempting to gain an earth friendly image)
I have not seen or heard of ANY plastic processing equipment or methods mentioned for JBI... if they were doing this it would be a good idea to let them know that they could qualify for recycling status if they sold the plastic that they separated... and between the break even cost of doing this and the recycling subsides they could get, they might just make a buck or two... oh, that's right, that would get used to pay for the dumping license they would need to get rid of that much BAD plastic that they can't use!
In the end it will become obvious why making oil for only $10 a brl on a commercial level is a misguided fraud...
And why waste management companies don’t find it commercially viable to sort and sell recycled plastic headed to a landfill…
and after 4 years and $50mill it should have become even more obvious that...
MAKING OIL FOR ONLY $10/brl IT IS A LIE.
(Why perpetual motion machines don’t work-
energy in = energy out with loss… ($50,000,000 loss and growing)
(THERE IS NO WAY TO GET MORE OUT THAN YOU PUT IN!)
THE PLASTIC HAS A VALUE GREATER THAN THE VALUE OF THE OIL YOU CAN PRODUCE!!!!!!!!!!!!
and government recycling subsidies make sure that this holds true
In addition... all of the touting of the SAIC and other independent testing that has been constantly posted as proof of concept, commercial viability and that the company is not a scam, well...
With all of the rework, addition of pre-pre melter, addition of heat transfer fluid, design fixes and changes....
The independent third party testing conclusions are no longer valid!
There is no credibility to any previous testing now that the machines, process and operations have been changed.
However, it is obvious from the lack of results, the lack of sales revenue AND the need to rework that the reports were based on obscured and incomplete data,.. smoke and mirrors, anyway.
Now that the third party conclusions have been ANNIHILATED, it appears it is time to have another pomp and circumstance third party test so that there is something new to use as propaganda to keep this alive just a little longer.
I can't wait to see how the story ends...
I'm betting on either-
JBI getting caught fudging the production to make it appear that they are finally up and running,
or
JBI blowing the plant up to collect on insurance.
“Look John, plastic fouls up the machines, produces unsaturated fuels and cost more than the fuel we make…
So, this is what we’re going to do,
We need to buy more time so we can scam another years salary,
Sooo, we will run fuel thru the machines and call it heat transfer fluid, no one will catch on…
we will add a little plastic and call it P2O so we can get our production numbers up for the next filing so we can raise more money to pay our salaries for another year…
by then we can think of something else just like you did the last 4 years!... “
“Good idea, boy, this P2O works very very well at making US a lot of money snicker”
If there really is a source of FREE plastic in the large enough amounts necessary to supply these machines at full production...
SELL the plastic!
You would make more than you would making oil!!!
Oh, that's right, RockTenn ALREADY does that... hmmm