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capacity issues
A very good CC. I'll have to go back and listen again but it sounds like AMD is already bumping into the capacity ceiling. This is a quarter or so sooner than I thought and probably will limit market share growth in H2. Too bad charter or fab36 aren't ready as it sounds like there's a lot of demand for AMD product out there. The good news is that they apparently built up inventory in H1. This probably explains why AMD has had stable to rising ASPs over the quarter?
GM of 39%
Very nice. Should be in the mid to high 40's next quarter as AMD ramps closer to full capacity.
Finally, MirrorBit seems to have found it's wings. Flash could do much better next quarter but probably still not make money.
The CC should be a dandy.
In short Intel had no choice.
Me...
Nicely stated. I don't think most people understand the fixed cost business model all that well. It can be a goldmine when your running at near capacity but it's more like a boat anchor as production drops off. INTC's model needs 80% of the market to maintain margins. Anything less and profits start dropping off a cliff rather quickly.
AMD geting a third of the processor $'s would be a disaster for INTC.
AMD may have been sereptiously planning this for a long time, but you have to offset that by the fact that Intel has had a very effective anti-trust program in effect for decades. Then, figure that the unknown part of the FTC agreement might have ok'ed their present practices and then the fact that the FTC already found them pretty clean.
Me...
I don't think so. This seems like a calassical disconnect between the legal and marketing arms of INTC. Certainly the things alleged by AMD would never be condoned by any legal department. Further, it doesn't help that the previous head of marketing is now the CEO. Not that Barrett was above using the old Phillip's-Head to screw people to the INTC wall.
Over the last few years we've seen enough evidence of just how stupid people can get when pressured enough. How would you like to be CEO of INTC when the gold mine turns to lead? Otellini is probably buying "Depends" by the case.
Actually, the point of my last post was to reiterate Chipguy's assertions on ARM's advantage in the embedded and SFF space, rather than Intel's. As a matter of fact, Intel's ARM based products have met with only limited success. They grew strong for a while in the PDA processor market, but if you consider things such as cell phones, Intel barely has any design wins at all. Moving forward, I am certain that cell phones will begin adopting features of PDAs and soon eclipse their larger and slightly bulky predecessors. Intel has a of work ahead of them to catch up here, IMO.
Me...
Well again I misunderstood, but rereading your reply it still looks the way I took it. Anyway, I think I read something the other day where INTC has won its' first cell phone contract beating out TI. If I had to guess it's probably a Spansion flash type loss leader attempt to beak into the market. INTC gave Itaniums away to break into the market so this is probably another one of those deals the OEM can't refuse but will cost a lot more later. Unlike AMD TI has the resources to compete with INTC in the dirty tricks department.
A little TI/INTC history.
http://informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=60404819
as long as Intel has gone along "unchallenged" with these marketing practices they could easily pushed the envelope to the point of hanging themselves.
Me...
Sounds logical to me. One thing that has always amazed me is the way embezzlers almost always start small, but when they don't get caught at the penny-ante stuff inevitably increase their take. For some reason they seem to feel that no one will notice or maybe it's something else like invincibility? At least that's the case for the ones that get caught. The ones that don't get caught are obviously brighter than INTC's management, which seems to fall into the first category.
// to less than 30 watts under load and less than 10 watts for Windows at idle. This huge power reduction was apparently accomplished by a combination of 90 nm die shrink, Silicon-on-Insulator technology, and something called 'dual-stress liner technology' //
Me...
It truly is amazing how far AMD has come in such a short time on the manufacturing process front. The stuff you listed was probably mostly IBM developed, but I'm sure IBM is getting some good pointers from APM. It just goes to show the synergies that are available when 2 competitors that have been solving the same problems in different ways get together for mutual advantage.
It wasn't that long ago that I was questioning whether AMD would ever be competitive with INTC in manufacturing processes. Without a doubt the deal Hector did with IBM was a godsend for AMD.
Today, at least to me, there is no doubt who has the best manufacturing processes in the industry. Let's hope it carries over to 65nm.
Yea, INTC has a rather large advantage it has built up, but we've seen a lot of INTC advantages dissipate rather quickly in the last few years. Anyway, I doubt it's as black and white as some think. If MSFT really gets involved it could be a different ballgame. Compatibility across a wide diversity of platforms is something that should carry some weight. The main problem I see is MSFT not wanting to be put under the microscope again given the animosity being directed at perceived monopolies.
GAP
While I have no doubt that INTC has an army of lawyers looking at its' contracts there seems to be a considerable gap between what the sales staff does and what INTC's legal community probably recommends.
First of all AMD would never be asserting all the INTC illegalities in the suit without some sort of documentation. So one can reasonably assume that either all the quotes/situations presented are fabrications by third parties or they're true. To me it seems highly unlikely that all the people/situations named by AMD in suit are fabrications. More than likely a very high percentage of the accusations are well documented and quite forthright.
Second, INTC's legal group would never condone the actions asserted in the suit. So, one has to infer that there has been some sort of disconnect between INTC's legal and sales departments with the legal group now being asked to defend the actions of the sales group.
Now it's highly doubtful that the sales group would have ever gotten into the situations described without the full knowledge and consent of upper management. Upper management probably picked and choose the situations that it wanted to go out on a limb for. Undoubtedly picking those situations where they perceived the least risk. Later in the game it appears that upper management, probably emboldened by AMD's lack of legal action, got more involved in the deal making. These deals probably never made it to the legal department. Anyway, I would be extremely surprised if INTC’s legal staff was ever apprised of the goings on.
Of course the mechanics of just how such large sums of money could be transferred will come out in the trial. My guess would be that there is some sort of slush fund maintained in the marketing budget for such actions. If AMD can subpoena INTC's documentation on the account it should make for some very interesting reading.
Also, it should be very interesting to see just how far B&O will go to deny wrong-doing when called to testify. I don't think either is stupid enough to perjure themselves, but who knows? Bernie may be having company Who knows, INTC may be getting that new management it so desperately needs sooner than later?
Do you have a reading comprehension problem? ARM
*is* the platform here. It has all the software advantages
for this market segment as well as huge complexity, cost,
and power savings advantage over x86.
Me...
Forgive my doubting, but this sounds very similar to what you've been saying about Itanium. It Still sounds like you're playing "Itanium Love" on that 8-track, just in another key?
I wonder if Tad still reads the SI boards?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050703/tech_amd.html?.v=1
Hector's 50X15 is starting to take off.
http://www.mb.com.ph/INFO2005070438531.html
Looks like INTC is warming up to the idea also. Probably not much money in this for anyone, but it does create a base from which upward sales can come.
Them...
"Another 5,000 units of AMD-powered PCs were also bought by the Procurement Service to bring the total number to 10,000. These units will be sold for R16,500 (for AMD-powered units) and R16,700 (with Intel Celeron chips), with a free Lexmark color printer."
Me...
Saxplayer ref.
Unless you think Windows XP based 3G cell
phones are in the cards then you can kiss x86's hopes here
good bye.
Me...
Actually I do think MSFT will be a big player in the "universal communicator" field. They certainly seem to want to be. I don't think XP, per se, will be the choice, but something X86 based seems very possible. Also, there are other X86 players besides MSFT.
This seems especially likely as the cell phones take on more and more duties. There's a lot of X86 based software that would be applicable to the G3 environment either directly or with minor changes.
INTC's Arm based chips are good processors, but just as Turion is taking share from Centurion there's probably room for the Geodes to move in on ARM also.
As far as power consumption goes, didn't I read something about a Geode(Castle) using less than 1 watt? The chips were designed to run in laptops, but the lines between laptops, T&L's, sub T&L's, PDA's, iPods, cell phones, digital cameras and who knows what else seem likely to disappear over the next couple of years. X86 everywhere seems quite possible given the coming need for software to run on a plethora of hardware platforms. Certainly it has the potential to reduce complexity and reduce development time.
A view of the case on a majot Taiwan new paper.
I'm lazy to translate the whole article.
Here is my summary:
MB and NB makers hat INTC. They will not openly go against INTC. They may privately tip AMD where and what to subpoena.
Me...
That's my feelings also. It's suicide for the smaller players to antagonize INTC. But I do expect them to help AMD in other ways. Giving AMD hints as to what to subphena leaves INTC guessing about their loyalty, but allows the dirty tricks to get out in the open.
Realistically, it's going to be impossible for INTC to punish everyone without doing a lot of harm to their business. The volume of hate being directed at INTC, stated and implied so far, should be a wake up call for INTC, but I expect INTC's take to be that the guys are just whiners.
Those were CJ's comments that I was quoting, although I pretty much agree with his estimates.
I'm not so sure the move to DC will be as fast as INTC thinks. Perhaps INTC is still thinking it can move the market where ever it wants? And who knows, perhaps it can, but I think single core for the middle and low-end will still be the dominant processer by the end of next year. As I mentioned the other day the k6-2 running W2000-pro that my wife uses seems able to do everthing I need. However, the next Multi-media machine I buy will probably be dual core, but that's going to be a high-end product with a limited market.
Do you really think AMD is going to stop using fab30 for processors? What I see happening is AMD continuing to push X86 everywhere with a whole new emphasis on Geodes. Given my experiences with the K6-2 I see no reason why updated x86-32 bit chips using 90nm processing couldn't find their way into what I expect will be an explosion of portable "univerisal communicator" type products.
As far as capex expenses go I doubt if they will increase that much. A lot of the fab30 depreciation costs will soon be ending as fab36 costs start up. Cash flow seems much more important, and I expect AMD to become or nearly achieve profitability in q2. But certainly, one of my goals for AMD is to get it off financial life support, for good, next year.
I thought I remember one datapoint showing that Opteron gained 27% of the U.S. MP server business.
Me...
This area, of server market share, seems to be confusing because everyone making their estimates uses different data. The less than 10% figure seems to include everything that can possibly be classified as a server.
Yes, I expect to see big gains in AMD q2 server sales, and continuing through the rest of the year. The recent design wins you enumerate, seem to indicate that the OEM's are finally being forced to respond to customer demand for AMD servers.
Undoubtedly, there are a lot of INTC users that will see advantages in staying with INTC. These aren't AMD's target market. What AMD is going after is the customers that see advantages in AMD products, but for whatever reasons remain tied to INTC. There looks to be enough of those guys to get AMD to the 30% to 35% market share AMD needs to reach critical mass.
Platformization is, to me, just another name for vertical integration. Undoubtedly this is the future as more and more space becomes available on processors that needs to be filled. The problem for INTC, in leading the charge, is that a lot of the industry rightly feels threatened by the move. To many suppliers INTC will be seen as setting themselves up against the whole industry.
Another problem is that this move to platformization further reduces the ability of the OEMs to differentiate their product from what everyone else is selling. This model would undoubtedly appeal to DELL, but the rest of the industry will probably be looking for other alternatives which should help AMD. In any case platformization isn't going to be a slam dunk for INTC, but is definitely where the industry is moving.
Oh, and if INTC insists on this one size fits all thing, they better do it right. What this does is concentrate INTC's eggs in fewer baskets and those baskets had better not have any holes in them.
It doesn't have to be fully ramped to make a huge difference if it is fully 65nm. First, let us assume that the 17% or so of the market is the best that Fab30 can do. Fab36 uses 300mm wafers, each of which can have 2.25 times +/- of a 90nm wafer at the same geometries. In addition, at 65nm, that roughly doubles the number of die per wafer. Assuming that Fab36 is only running 1k wafer starts per week by the end of 2006, that would mean that AMD can roughly double its market share with the two fabs alone.
Me...
That's pretty much how I see things going. You and I have both seen AMD stumble, more than once, over the years when introducing new process technology. However, there is ample evidence that things could be different this time. The "E" stepping certainly was a level of process improvement I don't think AMD has ever experienced. Clearly, the move to jointly develop manufacturing processes with IBM was one of AMD's defining/differentiating moments. The synergies, for both companies, seem to have been enormous.
I'm sure you're hoping, as I am, that the good news continues with fab36. If AMD can reduce the time lag between INTC and itself in doing the move to 65 nm, to less than 6 months, that would be amazing. Again though, I'm still not convinced that INTC's 90nm process is anywhere as good as AMD's so perhaps I'm doing needless hand wringing. Certainly, everthing Hector has said for the last year seems to indicate that fab36 is ontime and meeting process goals.
Perhaps the best empirical indicator of just how well AMD is doing is the lengths, the suit eneumerates, that INTC has had to go to protect market share. It certainly looks like the demand is there, all AMD has to do is supply the goods.
Once AMD can prove it has the ability to supply whomever with all the product they need, that should embolden a sizeable number of OEMs to risk incurring INTC's wrath. It's looking more and more like next year will finally see the payoff we've been so patiently waiting for. All the ducks should finally be lined up and all of INTC's advantages negated.
Lance Armstrong videos
http://team.discovery.com/videogallery/family/family.html
i worked at intel for 18 years in sales and marketing before retiring and i know and have witnessed these same intel execs the droids so eager to indict.
Me...
When did you retire? Most of the allegations are since 2002.
Just try to look at the situation from an impartial point of view and attempt to explain how AMD could take less than 10% of the server market after 2 years with a processor that outperforms Xeons by miles and costs less. Other factors have to enter the equation and nothing but extreme duress makes any sense. I know it a simplistic way to look at things, but given INTC's history of dirty tricks it makes sense to me.
In the end, the customer will decide on what's good for them.
I have no doubts on the outcome personally !
Me..
Yea, the end is looking pretty inevitable, and for the first time there appears to be a time table developing for when that will happen.
"At best by the end of next year (2006) AMD might be able to supply 40% of the market."
That is probably incorrect. By the end of 2006, Fab36 should be mostly ramped and at 65nm. With that capability and Fab30 at 90nm and the possibility of Chartered, AMD should be able to supply a larger perventage even if the market is 100% dual core, which isn't likely.
Me...
What percentage do you think is reasonable?
Not that I think it makes much difference. For me there's a tipping point after which things get much more difficult for INTC. That point, to me, appears to be about 30%/35% of the market. Above that market share INTC effectively looses it's abilities to coherce and intimidate.
The things I remember reading seem to indicate that AMD's plans for ramping fab36 aren't as fast as you indicate. But then maybe AMD is sand bagging again? AMD should be able to ramp up pretty quickly, if needed, once 65nm is proven. I certainly hope so, they clearly have the wind at their back.
Bobs, they can try to be more subtle in their threats, but they will still be exposed if they follow through with any actions that are actually damaging.
Me...
Right, but there's more gray than black and white to it.
I think INTC is consciously taking, from their point of view, a pragmatic approach. They know that AMD now has the best processor designs and the best production processes. With capacity soon to be a non-issue that leaves precious little wiggle room for INTC to keep the OEMs in line.
Given the historical slaps on the wrist INTC has received in previous legal proceedings it is likely that INTC consciously decided that the best thing to do is stall this thing as long as they can in the hope that eventually they will become competitive again. I'm guessing they have decided that the loss of business would be much worse than any penalty they will eventually have to pay.
I don't know how accurate INTC's thinking is but it seems to explain their actions to me.
Personally, as I've said, I see the move to AMD as inevitable and these delaying actions as futile. The genie is out of the bottle. Hopefully the penalties INTC eventually receives will be much more punitive than INTC expects.
Bobs10, I think maybe some of the Japanese OEMs are still with Intel in the sense that most of their product might be laptop in nature...if AMD can transition to 65nm in 06' you might see some of them dabling into AMDs market...but at least they don't have sword over their head now...
ME...
I hope your right. Having solved, or being in the process of negating all of INTC's advantages the only real impediment I still see is the capacity issue. Hopefully the suit will embolden some of the OEMs to take a few risks with INTC they might not have been willing to do before.
The suit provides a lot of advantages to AMD.
1) For at least the next 5 years a lot of INTC's attention/resources are going to be diverted to fighting what will undoubtedly become a free-for-all of suits.
2) It shines the light of public exposure on INTC's marketing practices. And, as a result awakens the the world to what a marketing monster INTC has become.
3) It emboldens some of the fence sitting OEMs to risk taunting the INTC beast with forays into AMD territory.
4) For those OEMs that have grown weary of living under INTC's thumb, it provides them with an excuse to deviate from the INTC party line. (Fear of being hauled into court).
Still, without resolution of the capacity issues all the above are meaningless.
There's a lot of different ways to get the point accross without obvious threats.
"So GTW what kind of plans do you have for next year" or "you know we're still on allocation for those laptop parts you want" or "you know the other day I was talking to DELL and they said they would buy all the new media center chips we can produce".
The guys running INTC may not be too subtle or bright, but getting their message over loud and clear would be one of the lesser things they have to worry about.
INTC changing its' ways?
I hope so, but really I think not. At least not until they're forced to do so by the courts. So far I haven't seen anything that indicates that there has been a change in the JP OEMs buying habits or even in their future buying intentions. Maybe it's just too early yet and things will change, but I kind of doubt it. INTC will probably shift gears slightly and claim they are meeting the requirements of the agreement. Which means the JFTC will have to go through the whole rigmarole again or the JFTC may agree that what INTC changed to is ok. In any case I doubt if INTC thinks the threat is real enough yet to alter their ways in any substantial manner.
I assume INTC will use the same sort of delaying tactics in the U.S. After all if they're proven guilty, their probably betting the added time won't make that much of a difference in the amount of the fine levied. Granted the amount levied should be based on the damage proven and but it probably won't work quite that way. So INTC has again thinks it has little reason to alter its' ways.
Realistically, this suit is from my point of view is just the icing on the cake for AMD. From what we've heard/read so far it's pretty obvious that the OEMs are tired of living under INTC's jackboots and would alter course immediately if there was an alternative.
At best by the end of next year (2006) AMD might be able to supply 40% of the market. This still leaves almost all the OEMs having to do business with INTC and given INTC's vindictive nature I expect INTC to be very hard on those OEM's that dared to support AMD in the suit. Realistically, AMD can't ask the OEMs for their support without guaranteeing to provide an alternative source to INTC. Without cover from AMD, by the time the suit is settled, these guys could well be out of business. Certainly a GTW type of OEM that was found wanting by INTC would have a very hard time existing without being able to turn to AMD for most, if not all, of its' chips.
What all this means to me is that all the OEMs that support AMD are expecting AMD to support them. Fortunately, it will probably be a couple of years before the suit comes to trial and AMD will be building capacity as fast as they can during that period. I'll bet the phone lines between INTC and the OEMs have been running hotter than a P4 at idle with INTC trying to find out whose with and whose against. The OEMs are undoubtedly being told in no uncertain terms that speaking out against INTC will be a kiss of death for them. So I expect the threatened OEMs to nod agreement and swear allegiance. But 2 years is a very long time in this business and by that time the OEMs may not need INTC as much as INTC needs them. I could be wrong, but I sense there's a lot of hate and eventual payback building out there in OEM land.
What this all means is that 2 years from now we could see a bifurcated market with all the major players having been forced to choose sides. Of course this would be ruinous to INTC, but you've got to take into account whose running INTC. Those idiots are capable of cutting off their noses to spite their faces. Still lots of assumptions on my part that will mostly not pan out. For sure though the stars are realigning in some new direction.
That's true, sorry I misunderstood. Without the K6 AMD probably wouldn't exist today, the k5 definitely was a flop. Jerry saved the company for the umteenth time with the Nextgen deal.
I've got a 350k K6-2 sitting right next to me that the wife uses occasionally. It's networked with a 2m Athlon that I use. Not that much difference in response time between either. Of course I added a lot of memory to the 350 and replaced the original hard drives with high speed ones. It's amazing where the bottlenecks really are. The biggest improvement I ever made was to get high speed cable internet access.
The Nextgen and IBM decisions really were life and death issues that, at least for me, allowed AMD to continue on as a viable entity. AMD has gone to the brink so many times it's the Pauline, as in perils of, of the semi business. AMD has lived on the edge of disaster for so long it's become a way of life for them. If they ever get a chance to feed at INTC's table their liable to eat until they explode.
Taking a look at AMD they developed the K6 which led to
Me...
What's so funny about the K6? At the time I seem to remember the most notable difference between it and the K7 as being the triple piped FPU of the K7. The differences between the K6 and K7 were probably no more than between the K7 and K8, but then I'm obviously not a chip design expert. The K6-3 was somewhat of a letdown on a sales basis, but a lot of the features in the K6-3 showed up in the Athlon as I recall. The main problems I recall with the K6 series had to do with manufacturing them, not the design. Or maybe it was a problem similar to the P4 with design problems leading to manufacturing problems. I'll leave this to others more knowledgeable.
bobs10 - I think it's a pretty tough case to make that Intel is behind AMD in manufacturing processes. Their paths have bifurcated in many ways, so a comparison is somewhat difficult. I'm sure that they're ahead in many respects, and AMD is ahead in some. But if they're behind in technologies that they haven't chosen to use, and have no plans to use, that's somewhat irrelevant if they get the job done in other ways.
I'm finding it sounds like people are discounting Intel's capability to compete technologically, just because they're struggling with their product line to some extent right now.
It's very foolhardy to assume this will continue. Fortunately, I have confidence that Hector, Dirk and crew make no such assumptions, but are innovating continually.
Paul
Me...
Well I'll give you that INTC is still c ompetitive in the T&L stuff. As far as the rest of the product line goes I"M not thst sure. Especially, given the lead AMD has in the top-end which will becomes tomorrows mainstream products.
As far as INTC catching up, I think that's also unlikely. If anything I expect INTC to fall further behind, they're just not set up to compete with a very fast raptor. INTC now, kind of reminds me of a Brachiosaurus, a huge and lumbering herbivore from the Cretacious period. Too many levels of management, too much back stabbing, (fostered as part of INTC policy), and most telling too many people devoid of new ideas. As far as I can tell the last original processor that was worth a damn from INTC was the P3. Further, all INTC has been able to do lately is copy things that AMD invented, and that won't stop any time soon. On top of it all there's a NIH mentality that pervades the company.
Every company has turning points, I've already listed INTC's. Taking a look at AMD they developed the K6 which led to the K7 and eventually the dominant position with the K8. When AMD finally realized that they would never be able to compete with INTC in production processes on their own they teamed up with IBM and blew right past INTC with what looks like the best process capabilities in the industry. Having solved these problems AMD tackeled the capacity problems with Fab36. And yesterdays suit will eventually solve the marketing stranglehold INTC has held over the market. Even INTC's money won't help as things go forward.
I ask you who sounds like the raptor and who sounds like the Brachiosaurus?
Your right,
OEMs are lined up to buy INTC DCs, and the P4s are going into space heaters at an accelerating rate. You talk as if INTC had something of value to sell. INTC is way behind AMD in design, and almost as far back in manufacturing processes, despite what Elmer says.
As far as damages go, that will be up to the courts. I'm not a lawyer, but as I understand it punitive damages could be awarded. Then there's the matter of AMD suing in different courts in different countries. Heck, I could even see the OEMs getting into the suing fray, not to mention all the class action stuff that's possible.
INTC is going to be up to its' eyeballs in legal proceedings for the next 5 years, at least. This, at a time when it is falling farther and farther behind AMD in competitiveness. This suit could prove to be the key that opened Pandora’s' Box for INTC. Undoubtedly INTC is going to be suffering a ton of new afflictions.
INTC reserve
INTC's financials should make for interesting reading this quarter. It might be a little early, but INTC may want to start setting up a reserve for eventual loses from the suit.
The actions listed so far reveal acts so blatent and shocking that there is little doubt that INTC will loose, it's just a matter of how much will be awarded in damages.
I rather expect there will be lots of climbers-on especially as the case winds through the courts and more and more abuses are leaked to the press. I could easily see 15 or 20 countries climbing on and seeking cumulative damages much higher than what AMD will be asking.
Lots of payback will be going on, not only from the countries but the OEMs also. As soon as one of the large OEMs is successful in defying INTC, such as HP, the tables will be turned. At some point INTC will go from demanding to begging from the OEMs. The only fly in the ointment will be AMD's ability to supply. I hope Chartered comes online quickly, AMD is going to be selling everything it can produce indefinitely.
Of course it's a matter of scale. AMD probably thinks they should have had 30% of the server market by now. Just because AMD gained market share has nothing to do with it. This is all about INTC's restraint of open competition and how much damage that restraint did to AMD.
Bobs, same old allegations. Marketing over engineering, strongarming over competing, destructive practices over constructive ones, leadership getting desperate, supporters in denial.
You've been following this industry for 20+ years. Try coming up with something new. Even a young guy like me with only eight years of experience can recognize the same old same old.
Tenchu
Me...
Well it takes some people longer than others to see the obvious, If you get my drift.
Actually, I think I've got a lock on this management thing, no one else seems to see how pathetic INTC management is. When I'm thinking of making an investment in a company, one of the first things I look at is management. One of the reasons I got out of INTC in 1998 was that Barrett was taking over and since then the boy has continued to underwhelm.
Give it another 20 years and you will probably get the hang of this stock investing thing. Some things just reek, a good nose is a priority.
INTC had the ability to win fair and square. No need to look for proprietary solutions. INTC had the best designs, best manufacturing processes, all the capacity in the world, the best marketing and all the money in the world. Exactly what was it that INTC also needed to compete fairly with AMD.
Most of the time AMD was just a one trick pony with almost no support within the industry. Without a doubt if INTC had decided to compete fairly they could have easily kept AMD on life support, maybe even tossing a few $ AMD's way when it appeared it was going bankrupt. But no INTC opted for the easy proprietary solution and made gobs of money but sacrificed its' future.
As I said INTC is run by people that can't see past the tips of their noses. Any competent management could have easily prevented AMD from becoming the competitor it is today given INTC's resources compared to AMD's.
So says the distinguished gentleman who compares Intel and its supporters to paid sex providers: #msg-6817191
Tenchu
me...
Two sides of the same coin. The worst thing that ever happened to INTC was when marketing rather than engineering started calling the shots. All this refusal to get down in the trenches and slug it out with the best products at the best price is the direct result of marketing/Otellini running the company. There is no place a company as profitable as INTC can hide, all they can do is compete. Yet this simple idea has seemingly been lost at INTC over the years. It took a long time to build INTC, but the fall is going to be a lot faster.
This constant searching for proprietary solutions is leading INTC down the path of ruin. A demolition company couldn't have done a better job of destroying INTC than Barrett/Otellini have done. And if you say the same old, same old Elmer response, about INTC still being profitable you really don't see what is happening.
Bobs, Yet, most people naively seem to assume that INTC is the same well run company it was back in 1985. My God, what a freakin horror show INTC has turned into.
Intel is far from a perfectly-run company. (What major corporation is?)
But to me, your extreme views tell me more about you than it does about Intel. Maybe most people aren't as "naive" as you think they are.
Tenchu
Me...
Perhaps, but I owned INTC stock back in 1985 and I remember quite vividly what the company was like then. From my point of view, Barrett has presided over the conversion of a gold mine into an EPA waste site.
My god, all the man had to do was just keep on milking X86, but no he let the company get enmeshed in the most hair brained scheme imaginable, Itanium. Not only did he throw billions of research dollars at what was obviously a proprietary dead end, but he didn't spend the money on developing an X86-32 successor and squandered resources chasing speed above all else with the P4.
These were all management decisions made at the highest level and they clearly show the disconnect between what the market wanted and what INTC marketing thought it needed to dominate the market. Attempting to create a proprietary sinecure in which to hide was not the sort of thing the INTC founders would have done.
The guys running INTC are morons, plain and simpletons.
Dumb and dummer.
I've said it over and over that INTC has some of the most inept and the dumbist people running it one could ever imagine. Well, if this suit turns out to be the slam dunk it now seems I'm sure a lot more people will be coming to the same conclusion.
The suit really shows the disconnect between the people that started INTC and the guys, particularly Barrett, that have been running it. Yet, most people naively seem to assume that INTC is the same well run company it was back in 1985. My God, what a freakin horror show INTC has turned into.
LOL! You've tried to pass this one off for a long time...
Me...
Yea, rather a feeble attempt at some levity. The board is way too serious, after all it's just money, right? However, there was a time when I did own a rather large number of INTC shares, but that was before 1998.
Yea, the pressure, or lack of it, INTC is able to apply to HP is what I'm after. HP, until fairly recently has been almost exclusively and INTC shop, especially in the business and laptop areas. Where they have let AMD play is in the consumer areas, but always on a restricted basis. Since the time of Carly's ouster there has been a very noticeable change in attitude at HP concerning AMD's server/blades/workstations and now laptops that seems to defy traditional alliances. Now we have INTC supplying the consumer markets and AMD supplying the high-end stuff much more than ever before. Something big is going down that time will tell.
Yea, DELL is a good company, which is why I expect them to eventually make the move to AMD. What I'm not sure about is how much pain DELL is willing to endure before making the step. Lately, the situation seems to be getting more acrimonious with harsh words being exchanged between AMD and DELL, but that sort of behavior is typical before a change.
Entering unchartered territory.
Ok, the way I figure it AMD is selling about 8.5 to 9m chips a quarter with a maximum capacity, given by AMD, of about 12.5m chips. Realistically AMD could probably produce about 11 to 11.5M chips a quarter with current capacity. This means AMD will have as many as 6m chips more to sell over the next 2 quarters.
Now the question is who is going to pick up those chips as I still expect AMD to hit capacity limits later in the year? This is especially intriguing in light of the AMD suit leveled yesterday.
Forget Dell, who is locked into INTC at least until AMD has fab36 going and starts to feel the heat of lost sales sometime next year. You can probably forget GTW also, as profit margins in retail are too thin for them to risk messing with the gorilla. IBM is a big unknown considering how they wax hot and cold, but overall they should sell a few more. What about the White market? Well these guys are probably not affected much, but you can bet the distributors will come under immense pressure, so I don't see much happening here. Well what about companies more remote like Levono. Right now it looks like INTC is applying max pressure to the developing markets and again margins are thin so messing with the gorilla seems out.
So whom does that leave? Well there's the laptop players like Acer and the Taiwanese. I expect them to eat up some of AMD's chips, and the super computer makers like Cray will help, but that still leaves quite a few not accounted for.
My best bet would be HP for taking up the slack. Lately it seems HP has found it had a spine, or more likely that it could do very well selling AMD products. Perhaps HP has figured out that it can make more money/grab more market selling Opterons, etc. than being tied into INTC's kickback scams? Anyway, from the number of design wins AMD has been getting at HP one would have to assume that AMD and HP are further under the sheets than they have ever been. How much this has to do with the Carly ouster I don't know, but it seems clear that the old fear of INTC retaliation seems to be fading fast. IF HP has, as rumored, big plans for Tourion notebooks this might be the clincher in defining a new relationship visa vie AMD/INTC and HP.
Ironically, this move to AMD could ultimately result in HP getting better deals from INTC. Initially I expect INTC to try and skewer HP for its' dalliances, but if this results in moving HP further towards AMD you can bet INTC will quickly start whistling another tune. Maybe even to the tune of equal prices with DELL. Now wouldn't that make the old loyalist happy?
Seven paper AMD ads
http://www.ictworld.co.za/EditorialEdit.asp?EditorialID=23213
AMD appears to be interested in winning more than just the legal battle against Intel, he adds. "This is partly about garnering public interest. The exposure this is going to gain is part of their objective," he says.
Me...
Great PR job. Hopefully INTC will feel enough heat to modify its' ways. Changing INTC's ways will probably require a court verdict.
From the Saxman