INTC changing its' ways?
I hope so, but really I think not. At least not until they're forced to do so by the courts. So far I haven't seen anything that indicates that there has been a change in the JP OEMs buying habits or even in their future buying intentions. Maybe it's just too early yet and things will change, but I kind of doubt it. INTC will probably shift gears slightly and claim they are meeting the requirements of the agreement. Which means the JFTC will have to go through the whole rigmarole again or the JFTC may agree that what INTC changed to is ok. In any case I doubt if INTC thinks the threat is real enough yet to alter their ways in any substantial manner.
I assume INTC will use the same sort of delaying tactics in the U.S. After all if they're proven guilty, their probably betting the added time won't make that much of a difference in the amount of the fine levied. Granted the amount levied should be based on the damage proven and but it probably won't work quite that way. So INTC has again thinks it has little reason to alter its' ways.
Realistically, this suit is from my point of view is just the icing on the cake for AMD. From what we've heard/read so far it's pretty obvious that the OEMs are tired of living under INTC's jackboots and would alter course immediately if there was an alternative.
At best by the end of next year (2006) AMD might be able to supply 40% of the market. This still leaves almost all the OEMs having to do business with INTC and given INTC's vindictive nature I expect INTC to be very hard on those OEM's that dared to support AMD in the suit. Realistically, AMD can't ask the OEMs for their support without guaranteeing to provide an alternative source to INTC. Without cover from AMD, by the time the suit is settled, these guys could well be out of business. Certainly a GTW type of OEM that was found wanting by INTC would have a very hard time existing without being able to turn to AMD for most, if not all, of its' chips.
What all this means to me is that all the OEMs that support AMD are expecting AMD to support them. Fortunately, it will probably be a couple of years before the suit comes to trial and AMD will be building capacity as fast as they can during that period. I'll bet the phone lines between INTC and the OEMs have been running hotter than a P4 at idle with INTC trying to find out whose with and whose against. The OEMs are undoubtedly being told in no uncertain terms that speaking out against INTC will be a kiss of death for them. So I expect the threatened OEMs to nod agreement and swear allegiance. But 2 years is a very long time in this business and by that time the OEMs may not need INTC as much as INTC needs them. I could be wrong, but I sense there's a lot of hate and eventual payback building out there in OEM land.
What this all means is that 2 years from now we could see a bifurcated market with all the major players having been forced to choose sides. Of course this would be ruinous to INTC, but you've got to take into account whose running INTC. Those idiots are capable of cutting off their noses to spite their faces. Still lots of assumptions on my part that will mostly not pan out. For sure though the stars are realigning in some new direction.
