Entering unchartered territory.
Ok, the way I figure it AMD is selling about 8.5 to 9m chips a quarter with a maximum capacity, given by AMD, of about 12.5m chips. Realistically AMD could probably produce about 11 to 11.5M chips a quarter with current capacity. This means AMD will have as many as 6m chips more to sell over the next 2 quarters.
Now the question is who is going to pick up those chips as I still expect AMD to hit capacity limits later in the year? This is especially intriguing in light of the AMD suit leveled yesterday.
Forget Dell, who is locked into INTC at least until AMD has fab36 going and starts to feel the heat of lost sales sometime next year. You can probably forget GTW also, as profit margins in retail are too thin for them to risk messing with the gorilla. IBM is a big unknown considering how they wax hot and cold, but overall they should sell a few more. What about the White market? Well these guys are probably not affected much, but you can bet the distributors will come under immense pressure, so I don't see much happening here. Well what about companies more remote like Levono. Right now it looks like INTC is applying max pressure to the developing markets and again margins are thin so messing with the gorilla seems out.
So whom does that leave? Well there's the laptop players like Acer and the Taiwanese. I expect them to eat up some of AMD's chips, and the super computer makers like Cray will help, but that still leaves quite a few not accounted for.
My best bet would be HP for taking up the slack. Lately it seems HP has found it had a spine, or more likely that it could do very well selling AMD products. Perhaps HP has figured out that it can make more money/grab more market selling Opterons, etc. than being tied into INTC's kickback scams? Anyway, from the number of design wins AMD has been getting at HP one would have to assume that AMD and HP are further under the sheets than they have ever been. How much this has to do with the Carly ouster I don't know, but it seems clear that the old fear of INTC retaliation seems to be fading fast. IF HP has, as rumored, big plans for Tourion notebooks this might be the clincher in defining a new relationship visa vie AMD/INTC and HP.
Ironically, this move to AMD could ultimately result in HP getting better deals from INTC. Initially I expect INTC to try and skewer HP for its' dalliances, but if this results in moving HP further towards AMD you can bet INTC will quickly start whistling another tune. Maybe even to the tune of equal prices with DELL. Now wouldn't that make the old loyalist happy?
