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Go with the puts a couple
of weeks out.... On every spike.
IMHO, we're very close to a HARD down move -
Damn near like Feb of 2020, as restrictions are implemented.
As the consumer realizes what is actually happening,
the velocity of the circulation of money and trade will again quickly dry up.
Very quickly, we could see lockdowns like Australia is facing implemented overnight.
A 1% gap down tomorrow would not be shocking, or between now and Monday morning.
Hard breaks like this DO NOT
create confidence in markets....
I fully agree with the sentiment
expressed with this video and I think this goes hand in hand with the MMT and debt levels....
They know "the system" is ready to implode and that's why we have quickly been taking these "implementation steps".
There will be blood.
Or if you want to go short, then
Ignore the bullish areas and sectors...
Find the best bearish patterns, like XLE or maybe KRE.
Maybe the transports... Or specific stocks within the weak sectors.
We're near the end point, many citizens who have 401k's and watch the balance of their retirement accounts still think the economy and macro picture is just fine, because their balance keeps improving...
They have been lulled into a passive state and they fail to see how the regulations and inflation is robbing them of their assets and freedoms.
Excellent Post -
Thanks...
and there's many, many different sparks that could drop into this Powder keg room to start a solid selloff.
We already know many sparks have already dropped in, just like occurred 20 years ago and also 13 years ago, but at some point, one of the sparks truly acts as that single piece of straw that breaks the camel's back.
We can also see in the charts how long it took for the market to "get ugly"... How long it took, even after everyone was aware, for reality to set in, for the denial to stop and the downward action to take hold.
If you recall, everyone knew there were time bombs, and then even after the fact, the ratings agencies were critisized -
What took you so long ?
Housing
As of February 2008, Moody's had downgraded at least one tranche of 94.2% of thesubprime RMBS issues it rated in 2006, including 100% of the 2006 RMBS backedby second-lien loans and 76.9% of the issues rated in 2007. Overall, Moody's hasdowngraded 53.7% and 39.2% of all of its 2006 and 2007 subprime tranches,respectively.
As of March 2008, S&P had downgraded 44.3% of the subprime tranches it ratedbetween the first quarter of 2005 and the third quarter of 2007. This included 87.2%of securities backed by second-lien mortgages.
As of December 2007, Fitch had downgraded approximately 34% of the subprimetranches it rated in 2006 and in the first quarter of 2007. In February 2008, Fitchplaced all of the RMBS it rated in 2006 and the first quarter of 2007 backed bysubprime first-lien mortgages on Ratings Watch Negative.'
IMVHO, we won't see a denial of problems for months....
This time, everyone is aware and everyone is itchy.
This downside will be as fast as the covid drop -
when it happens
You see it as
"Less or fewer panic sellers", or we can label it as a lack of downward pressure...
Due to the actions of those in control and that trust they have created.
But I think all of us know, deep down, this trust in MMT is flawed -
And it will eventually come tumbling down.
And we know how brutal and quick the market downsides can be...
A trust has been created, a false trust... For now...
A huge mountain has been created, and it won't slowly deteriorate,
It'll go like Mt. St. Helens.
That's just the nature of bubbles.
These "smart fellows" have created
This huge problem, and we all know it can't last forever.
The sad part about it is they will not be the ones who suffer,
When this pyramid scheme they have created...
When this world Greater Fool theory blows up.
SPY
At this point, it's all
become a big pyramid scheme... A reliance on
The Greater Fool Theory and trust that there's a buyer ready to provide unlimited support.
A true belief that even a 10% dip is virtually impossible and if it were to occur, it would be one of the best buying opportunities in years.
Probably the worst advice here today is the old school investment management,
Who live by the basic principle that, "In the long run, stocks go up."
We actually could have a 40% drop in the SPY and still be in the long term bullish channel.
I'm not saying it will happen soon, but whole system has become twisted and skewed.
Lets be honest -
Biden isn't making decisions and hasn't been the whole time -
Even Obama knew he was a zero, and that was a decade ago.
This is control by the radical left -
Steps to destroy capitalism and create more power for the elite.
The Afghan fiasco just left trillions in rare earth to be utilized by China. China already threatening Taiwan to "work with them" or else...
China already taking over Africa and its natural resources.
The elite don't mind.... however they can get cheaper COGS.
We're back into the Paris Accord, which allows China to increase pollution until 2030.
US northern border is tightly controlled, but the southern border ?
Just another step to create a financial drain on the US.
Why would the elite care ? How many refugees will be sent to the Hamptons ?
Now basically need an ID to order a steak (vaccine papers required) but to vote ?
So we have more and more steps to control the people, for the
"good of the people".
We're now back to being reliant on OPEC, for the good of the environment, even though it's a global environment. Who cares about the pollution practices done on other continents.
And if you express problems with any of this, it must be because you're racist, a bigot, definitely greedy....
Has the media been blasting this admin ??!? Of course not -
We even have many, including Pelosi, who have praised Biden...
This is and has been a coup of capitalism.
Lets be honest -
Biden isn't making decisions and hasn't been the whole time -
Even Obama knew he was a zero, and that was a decade ago.
This is control by the radical left -
Steps to destroy capitalism and create more power for the elite.
The Afghan fiasco just left trillions in rare earth to be utilized by China. China already threatening Taiwan to "work with them" or else...
China already taking over Africa and its natural resources.
The elite don't mind.... however they can get cheaper COGS.
We're back into the Paris Accord, which allows China to increase pollution until 2030.
US northern border is tightly controlled, but the southern border ?
Just another step to create a financial drain on the US.
Why would the elite care ? How many refugees will be sent to the Hamptons ?
Now basically need an ID to order a steak (vaccine papers required) but to vote ?
So we have more and more steps to control the people, for the
"good of the people".
We're now back to being reliant on OPEC, for the good of the environment, even though it's a global environment. Who cares about the pollution practices done on other continents.
And if you express problems with any of this, it must be because you're racist, a bigot, definitely greedy....
Has the media been blasting this admin ??!? Of course not -
We even have many, including Pelosi, who have praised Biden...
This is and has been a coup of capitalism.
He should just tell the truth...
He should just cut the crap,
His little monologue should be short,
He should just open and close with the same statement -
Welcome to the Grand Illusion
Even just the mention of taper
causes a ripple....
Yes, back in 2018 a rate hike occurred also, but...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165565983
IWM puts bought -
Scaling in -
IWM, 20210910, 223's @ 3.60
Tomorrow she's headed to 180
No reason to think about going long now....
The 5 day chart now looks like Wiley Coyote, it's ran off the cliff,
just hasn't looked down yet.
That retest will happen hard and fast...
Today and tomorrow -
Easy enough to see that after a big up day, like yesterday,
as soon as it can't find the buyers, like today, and can't
find more upward fuel, it puts in a solid, big red candle.
The momentum players scrambling to get out and those who
bought the bottom area at 170 snagging the profits.
Smart traders realize the risk factor has quickly increased large.
The problem now is
this is the fourth time it's spiked in 2021, and the
momentum traders, even the buy and hold investors know -
it spikes and then dies.....
They are aware the valuation is nuts, and that it's just a
trading vehicle... and they know it now lives back at below 170.
It's just human conditioning - the traders will be quick to sell the spike.
First hint at the big, red candle like early March and early June, and it'll free fall.
GLTA
Good luck longs -
Lock in gains -
Please exit the rocketship in an orderly fashion -
Everyone gets to sell at the top, hopefully...
NFLX puts here -
9/3 550's @ 6.90
QQQ puts -
9/03 375's @ 3.60
Follow the money, as usual...
The Afghan fiasco just left trillions in rare earth to be utilized by China. China already threatening Taiwan to "work with them" or else...
China already taking over Africa and its natural resources.
The elite don't mind.... however they can get cheaper COGS.
We're back into the Paris Accord, which allows China to increase pollution until 2030.
US northern border is tightly controlled, but the southern border ?
Just another step to create a financial drain on the US.
Why would the elite care ? How many refugees will be sent to the Hamptons ?
Now basically need an ID to order a steak (vaccine papers required) but to vote ?
So we have more and more steps to control the people, for the
"good of the people".
We're now back to being reliant on OPEC, for the good of the environment, even though it's a global environment. Who cares about the pollution practices done on other continents.
And if you express problems with any of this, it must be because you're racist, a bigot, definitely greedy....
and this makes me laugh....
Remember the second half of 2018 -
and the reaction that occurred...
SPY 2018
and from this December 2018 article...
LOLOL...
“I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose,” Powell said during a news conference Wednesday. “I don’t see us changing that.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/fed-chief-powell-says-he-doesnt-see-the-fed-changing-its-strategy-for-shrinking-the-balance-sheet.html
You could definitely say we're
a bit ahead of the actual economy....
When we make some comparisons, the SPY was at
300 when Real Sales were where they are now -
I always would rather look at the top line, instead of the
bottom line earnings, as we know the many ways companies can
"cook a pretty picture", quarter by quarter.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-real-sales/table/by-quarter
and back onto valuations....
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book
It all comes back to money chasing ROI and how
that "quest" has gotten completely beyond irrational...
It's just insanity.
We can see stocks like PG, JNJ, and KR have been climbing.
And then we have AMZN in the gutter...
That actually could be considered as a bad sign, the rotation into
Defensive plays, and when we look at GS, it's been dropping in the past month,
Along with banks XLF and KRE.
This is usually NOT what happens when expansion in the economy is expected.
When does the debt bomb hit and when can we expect payments on debts to be demanded.
A closer look at HD and we might have a double top there.
Healthcare continues to climb...
Very possible H&S on XLE and also XOP, XLU, and $TRAN not looking great...
Thank you current administration for creating such a clusterf...
Back to banks... Back to the staples outperforming the discretionary stocks...
Possibly in anticipation of the tapering and we do have Jackson Hole, which could cause a liquidation break.
All in all, we're trying to anticipate where we're going to go over the next 2+ weeks, and profit from it.
A one or 2 day bounce doesn't fix everything. It doesn't completely eliminate the ominous signs.
Signs like the Fed and central bankers have cornered themselves,
So much has now become dependent on stimulus,
Debt payments have to be started back up at some point, which will shackle expansion, discretionary spending, and earnings...
And we're here at valuations at one of the highest points in history...
Yeah.... Nothing to worry about at all.
I appreciate the charts,
And the long term views...
We can see stocks like PG, JNJ, and KR have been climbing.
And then we have AMZN in the gutter...
That actually could be considered as a bad sign, the rotation into
Defensive plays, and when we look at GS, it's been dropping in the past month,
Along with banks XLF and KRE.
This is usually NOT what happens when expansion in the economy is expected.
When does the debt bomb hit and when can we expect payments on debts to be demanded.
A closer look at HD and we might have a double top there.
Healthcare continues to climb...
Very possible H&S on XLE and also XOP, XLU, and $TRAN not looking great...
Thank you current administration for creating such a clusterf...
Back to banks... Back to the staples outperforming the discretionary stocks...
Possibly in anticipation of the tapering and we do have Jackson Hole, which could cause a liquidation break.
All in all, we're trying to anticipate where we're going to go over the next 2+ weeks, and profit from it.
A one or 2 day bounce doesn't fix everything. It doesn't completely eliminate the ominous signs.
Signs like the Fed and central bankers have cornered themselves,
So much has now become dependent on stimulus,
Debt payments have to be started back up at some point, which will shackle expansion, discretionary spending, and earnings...
And we're here at valuations at one of the highest points in history...
Yeah.... Nothing to worry about at all.
To me, looking a bit ominous,
Doesn't even begin to describe what I see...
Sorry for being bearish, and timing is everything, and the powers that be have continued to work with borrowed time, and perhaps more importantly, borrowed money...
OEX
How much longer can they keep the old vehicle cruising at 90 mph, rattling on the red line, without even seeing a solid correction?
Can it all just keep climbing based on keeping MSFT, AAPL and GOOGLE flying?
60 faltering
Leaders rollover
Here's the story in the charts...
A green, bounce day or 2 does not fix the problems...
Especially when that bounce occurred at the end of the OE week.
We have the downward channels becoming more and more evident.
Led by the small caps and concerns increasing about tapering.
RSP
This was not a big volume bounce that came through...
IWM
The picture is getting more and more challenging and concerning as we truly comprehend what is happening.
Long term
The reality of what has happened can
And will, IMVHO, spread over into a thorough loss of confidence across the board...
And I'm not talking about this message board, I am talking about a loss of
Confidence and trust in the Fed and central bankers to keep everything "just fine and moving upward".
Hope you're doing well...
I hope you're positioned properly here...
Ready for a crazy. h. Pattern here?
Remember, we're 2 steps ahead of 98% of the general public.
We know it's a game of fear and greed, and now we've got some solid overhead resistance to contend with.
It'll shock me to see a solid bounce today, but this is an OE week.
I'm watching the current trading and working with the options a week or 2 out.
it already has turned into Everest...
Complete with the Internet Bubble and Housing B
Everest
SPY from 95
Just a public note - THANKS !!
THANK YOU VERY MUCH !!
The board and the guidance ROCK -
It's been a TREMENDOUS help !!
I get perplexed by those posts wondering about NN....
You've been all over it - day after day...
Okay.... Yeah....
I do just fine at the short term / momentum trading.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165451953
With all that's occurring,
How many truly believe that investor confidence is solid here?
How many think the majority of the crowd is still ready and committed to having solid trust in the central banks?
Who actually thinks there won't be a shift and a flight to safety?
No matter how much hope you have, the free money game plan is just not a complete cure all for everything.
Does this board think investors are waking up here thinking,
"Such a great spot to buy and hold!"
Why put off the inevitable
Something that can be started right away...
The stage is set, here and now, for a solid loss of confidence in the Fed and central bankers.
The banks have already positioned themselves with a monstrous amount of puts.
Who knows.....
Prime example of negative divergence...
Breadth
Downward channel forming and if we don't climb, we will fall.
EVERYONE knows, except for the rookies, how overvalued we are...
NFLX is the pick to tumble hard...
It's now lost its 50 and 200, and still extremely overvalued.
Ominous signs continue to grow,
And we're now at the breaking point.
I believe it starts this week...
Grab puts because it's now become an hour by hour watch.
IWM can't regain its 50, topping signs on the main tech stocks,
See $NYFANG. Breadth weakness...
QQQ 60
If RSP rolls over, it's all going to fail hard
IWM
QQQ
VERY Interesting video...
The downside of at least 5% is ready to start...
Any day now, and I think it's down to an hour by hour watching scenario.
IWM can't get back to its 50 here.
Would it be foolish to follow the banks? Usually not.
Another green day, except for
the QQQ....
and if the tech stocks cannot find some immediate
"blind faith", as it usually does, this will start to have
a negative impact on the SPY, and across the board.
QQQ
I keep thinking maybe, just maybe,
they are taking gold and silver down because "they" know
the sh!t is about to hit the fan in the currency and
financial areas....
And gold and silver are about to launch...
but then reality hits...
the powers that be, including the politicians, know they will keep boosting stocks,
based purely on the Ponzi scheme, and all currencies will
continue to lose true value, inflation will continue...
they know the middle class, average US citizen will continue to be pinched from all sides - from inflation, from debt, and from taxes...
And the powers that be just completely do not give a flyin' F as to what happens to the citizens - they already have their escape plan well planned out.
I also hope it does not pass -
It is just a huge wish list for the left....
much of it being even radical.
And yet the main stream media says nothing.
Especially nothing negative about it, as they are all in the pockets of the elite, who know they already have their game plan in place to avoid any tax problems they may face.
At this time, in our society, it has become difficult to find things that haven't become corrupted beyond repair.
IF China were to announce that,
Gold and Silver would skyrocket....
a 100% gap up and run from there - on gold -
a 200% gap up and run for Silver -
It would disrupt the entire global setup, including China's...
and that's why it won't happen.
That is why Libya was destroyed 10 years ago -
and Gaddafi was taken out.... because he wanted to
create an African currency, backed by gold.
bought calls here -
SLV, 20210820, 21, CALLS @ 0.92