full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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MMT.v/MAUXF: I agree with Traderfan comments.
Thanks for your helpful summary. I haven't listened to the call yet. There were some significant negatives in your summary, particularly:
1. The pipeline will only be capped (not surrounded) by concrete. That makes it more accessible to the bunkering crowd.
2. Also I had hoped (unreasonably perhaps) that there would be an extended tax holiday for new areas drilled in Umusadege, which means the delays in pipeline repairs and new pipeline completion have cost shareholders much in 2013 tax benefits. Bummer! Since 2014 will not have the generous benefits of the tax holiday, much (not sure exactly how much) of the revenues generated by increased production will be lost to the nefarious Nigerian taxman!
3. Not much indication of merger with Midwestern, perhaps due mostly to the insufficiency of cash to do the deal (they can blame Agip and the bunkerers).
Regards,
'peeker
OT: As Bentley told Quayle you are no Jack Kennedy, you are no Rosa. How do I know this? Rosa would never ever fart on an elevator.
OT: As Bentley told Quayle you are no Jack Kennedy, you are no Rosa. How do I know this? Rosa would never ever f&rt on an elevator.
OT: Now that you have a Grand Bob Plan to increase life expectancy, please opine whether the NRA's evolving mind control measures will be an adequate prescription for prevention of overpopulation by old fogies (like me, of course, not like you).
BCC.ax/BCGYF: Great news on Buccaneer, though they mention that the offer (over the rights issue price of .04/sh) is considered insufficient, but they will continue talking to the interested party and others that have indicated interest.
I added a chunk at .04, thinking that they will get something over .05 at least.
'peeker
TGA country risk mentioned here in article about debt by Egypt to oil and gas companies! Not sure how much insurance they carry for Egypt country risk, but TGA continues to increase their annual production.
Egypt debts to oil firms highlight subsidies struggle44 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters
* Oil firms reveal Egypt owes them $5 bln, half overdue
* Apache says has $1 bln political risk insurance for Egypt
* Upstream investments still strong, to exceed $8 bln
By Dmitry Zhdannikov
LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - Egypt owes at least $5 billion to oil companies, half of it overdue, corporate reports have revealed, in a development highlighting the country's struggle to meet soaring energy bills while subsidising prices to avoid public unrest.
Egypt has been delaying payments to firms producing oil and gas on its territory as it has struggled with dwindling currency reserves, rising food bills and sliding tourism revenues since the 2011 revolution that overthrew Hosni Mubarak.
Most oil firms hope to recoup the debts in full, but they acknowledge it could take years. While they are still planning to invest in new projects in Egypt that will help it avoid an energy meltdown, the debt situation remains a challenge.
The government's delay in paying its debts to oil and gas producers could hold back investment in the sector and potentially endanger Egypt's energy security.
"The delays in payments to the operators end up hurting Egypt itself as a potential decline in investment and production may lead to lower government revenues and a supply gap, in a potential vicious circle," said Maji Jafar, managing director of the board of Dana Gas.
Dana is owed $230 million by Egypt in overdue payments for gas supplies and says it is in active dialogue with the government over the debts.
Financial disclosures by firms such as BP, BG, Apache, Edison and TransGlobe Energy show Egypt owed them more than $5.2 billion at the end of 2012.
BP was owed $3 billion as of the end of 2012, of which around $1 billion was overdue. BG was owed $1.3 billion, of which $600 million was overdue. Edison has $400 million overdue, followed by TransGlobe and Dana with over $200 million each.
Egyptian officials have never disclosed debt figures and have challenged estimates ranging between $7-$9 billion. Egyptian officials and oil company sources say some debts are being repaid but the scale and speed are unknown.
At the end of December, Egypt owed TransGlobe, a small Canadian oil explorer, $220 million. Company officials declined to give the current number, saying it will be detailed in first quarter financial results in early May. The company has stakes in five concessions in the country.
Since the revolution, the government has been making its payments for oil after about 8-1/2 months on average, which is about a month longer than was the situation before, Chief Financial Officer Randall Neely said.
"It's always an ongoing dialogue ... with them to make sure we are a priority to get paid so that we can continue to function appropriately in the country and grow production," Neely said.
"I wouldn't say it's shaken our confidence in terms of working in the country. We continue to be positive in terms of our ability to get things done and the opportunity set within the country," he said.
POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE
Foreign companies dominate the energy sector in Egypt, Africa's top oil producer outside OPEC and its No.2 gas producer after Algeria.
Output has been in decline in recent years. January oil production fell 3 percent year-on-year, according to government data, while gas output fell 9 percent.
Oil output was the lowest in three years and gas output the lowest in five years, according to the Middle East Economic Survey. Egypt's oil use has risen by a third in the past decade, and exceeded oil output since 2008.
Driven by population growth and energy subsidies, which account to $15 billion a year or a quarter of the budget, Egypt's gas use has nearly doubled over the last decade to nearly match production, thus limiting exports and hard currency revenues.
The Egyptian economy has been in crisis since the overthrow of Mubarak in 2011, with President Mohamed Mursi grappling with a weak economy and street protests. Rating agency Moody's puts chances of a default at 10 percent within one year.
Some companies say they will have to wait for years before recouping the debts. BG said it expects to fully recover $1.3 billion by the end of 2015, under a recent deal pegged to oil and gas production levels.
As political and economic conditions deteriorate, some have taken precautions. Apache has purchased a multi-year political risk insurance from the Overseas Private Investment Corp and other insurers to cover Egyptian risks.
"These insurance policies provide approximately $1 billion of coverage to Apache for losses arising from confiscation, nationalisation, and expropriation risks, with a $263 million sub-limit for currency inconvertibility," Apache said.
It also has a $300 million coverage with OPIC for losses arising from non-payment on past invoices.
"The coverage was critical to Apache's ongoing investment in Egypt," said OPIC.
NEW PROJECTS
Oil companies say output declines will be reversed as investment rises, despite the debt challenges.
Apache, the largest oil producer in Egypt, plans stable investment in Egypt for 2013 at over $1 billion.
"We have not missed a day of production since the revolution began in January 2011. We believe the Egyptian government understands the value of our contribution, especially at a time when other sectors of the economy are struggling," spokesman Bill Mintz said.
Other major players also say investment will remain stable or even rise despite the government caps on gas prices, which are below U.S. prices and are a fraction of EU prices.
"There's been no impact on production, or investment decisions," said a BP spokesman.
Apache, BP and Edison did not comment on the debts owed to them by Egypt.
BP however identifies Egypt as a major development area as it is planning to start drilling 18 wells as part of the $13 billion West Nile Delta project, which will ultimately produce enough gas to meet around a fifth of Egypt's demand.
BG and partner Petronas have also sanctioned $1.5 billion in new gas investments. The government hopes to eliminate energy subsidies within five years, which could make its gas market attractive.
Egypt's ministry of investment has said the energy sector will see a rise in investment in 2013 from $8.2 billion in 2012, which was down $400 million on 2011
TGA showing renewed life today; my guess would be that they are about to announce a successful new well. My primary concern with TGA is country risk, particularly that account receivables from gov't of Egypt remain substantial.
However, their last conf call recording was an exceptional event. For those interested in TGA, I suggest you listen to the March 7 yearend conf call.
This company has really grown over the years with great fiscal and operational management.
GLTA all TGA longs,
'peeker
10bagger, the GLMB love affair was just another one nite stand.
MMT.v/MAUXF: Pipeline info!!!
Main Agip pipeline due to be back up by 15 April, according to Oando CEO on conf call today.
Alternative pipeline delayed such that expected completion date is now late Q4.
Mart doing much better today; we'll have to see how it does with what Oando has to say at 1pm eastern about the Eni/Agip pipeline situation.
Regards, Y'all,
steve
Was just wondering if Bob knew any more about MMT than was already in open discussions here and on IV and on SH. In fact he said he don't know nuthin more bout nuthin.
We'll all have to wait for more info on Agip pipeline repairs from Oando since Mart just isn't talking, at least to us retail investors. Unfortunately there's just no way to know what the big houses (Sprott, Cannacord, BoM, etc.) have been able to learn about the situation that we are not privy to.
We may expect Mart to put out some details when they publish their results for 4Q12 in the next week or so.
OT: Bob, I send a PM regarding MMT on IV since I gave up my IHub membership.
Regards to All,
'peeker
MMT.v has frequently suffered from Agip pipeline disruption for "maintenance", especially associated with the rainy season and bunkering. This latest "maintenance" has lasted 4 wks, cutting cashflow to nil.
There is also a rumor about potential combination with Midwestern to become a large indigenous company, but there have been delays with this as well, causing investors to wonder how good or bad the terms of an eventual deal will be for Mart. It is important for Mart-Midwestern to combine before the next round of marginal field bids, which could happen almost any time now, as it only awaits President Goodfellow's good signature.
All that being said, Mart has tended to trade within a relatively wide trading range. We had hoped the range had moved higher recently but perhaps it only got wider, as the low end is now lower than most of us longs can appreciate.
Good luck!
09:28 AVG (posted to attn: KiK)
AVG Tech initiated with a Buy at BWS Financial; tgt $30 (12.19)
BWS Financial initiates AVG with a Buy and price target of $30. AVG has leveraged its base of users to generate revenue from a licensing based model where users pay an annual license to remain up to date with security protection for their PC. Changes in Google's (GOOG) search requirements has raised some concerns for AVG, which BWS believes are over done (probably why it was down earlier this week). The search toolbar is a secondary product for AVG and not the source of what has given the Company 146 million users.
OT: Your elevator or mine?
TGA: Transglobe Energy beats Q4 ests; guides FY13/QTD production (8.55 )
Transglobe Energy reports Q4 EPS of $0.39 vs $0.37 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; oil/gas sales, net of royalties, +52% to $92.3 mln vs $90.80 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
2012 production increased 44% YoY to 17,496 barrels of oil per day
2013 Guidance:
-- Production of 21,000 to 24,000 Bopd, a 28% increase over 2012 using the mid-point of 22,500 Bopd;
-- Funds Flow of $161.0 million, based on an average Dated Brent oil price of $100.0/Bbl and using the mid-point production of 22,500 Bopd;
-- January production 17,144 Bopd; February production 18,085 Bopd; and 18,500 Bopd to date in March
Mart ops update and only partial UMU10 details ... looks like they promised big and executed small this time!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mart-resources-inc-umu-10-133000323.html
09:18 PVG Pretium Resources initiated with a Buy at Global Hunter Securities (8.15)
09:18 PVG Pretium Resources initiated with a Buy at Global Hunter Securities (8.15)
Briefing.com SNFCA comments today @ 13:47
Emerging Growth Stocks: Security National Financial (SNFCA) (8.85 -0.47)
A number of readers have written in asking about SNFCA and why it's selling off so hard. We've been checking around, and we haven't seen any news that would explain the steep sell-off.
Having said that, keep in mind that from Aug-12 to Feb-13, SNFCA rallied almost 500% on essentially no news. Since its Feb 8 peak, SNFCA has sold off 40%... again, on no news. There is no analyst coverage on this name, either. Basically, SNFCA has been trading in its own little world since its rally began last August.
Normally, you don't want to read too much into the technicals when you're looking at thin micro-cap stocks such as SNFCA (they're just not liquid enough to form reliable levels). But this one was undoubtedly picked up by some of the more adventurous growth traders due to its exceptionally strong sales & EPS growth rates, steady uptrend, and top-notch relative strength (all characteristics which put it on the EG list last December).
As such, you can't help but think that many of these traders started to bail out when the stock closed below its 20-day EMA on Feb 15, since SNFCA had found such consistent support at that key moving average since the November leg of the rally began (see chart). In fact, it was the day after the breach of the 20-day that the selling really began to accelerate. That might have been a coincidence; but in the absense of any news it's a good bet that the intense selling pressure we've seen in SNFCA can at least in part be explained by fleeing momentum traders.
Commodities and commodity stocks down across the board on the rumor that a whore house blew up (oh, what I meant to say was that a commodities-related hedge fund was having trouble and was forced to sell assets).
HNR slammed (-35%) after Indonesians say no to HNR's Venezuelan assets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-20/harvest-natural-drops-after-venezuelan-sale-terminated.html?cmpid=yhoo
JFF7, great find; may explain the rise in volume and price over the last 2 days; maybe it will help today as well; interesting that it took so long to show up on here and IV boards.
While I don't know whether MMT.v will ever be able to increase oil production to anything close to the 45,000boepd Wade mentions, we'll certainly enjoy watching them try.
Thanks for posting!
VSTI's most recent quarter 4Q12 was significantly above the last several. It has been profitable for the last 5 quarters. What has changed about VSTI's business that would indicate 4Q12 results should be repeatable?
Has their product improved significantly or been integrated with several other vendors' products such that VSTI sales are more easily sold and integrated into existing hospital asset management systems?
Just a quick comment: Posting to this board INSTEAD of cluttering up Value Microcaps Motherboard is a great idea. IMHO, in the last year, Value Microcaps Motherboard had just become very noisy, that is, posts were no longer as focused on particular stock details, but rather statistical record-keeping and documentation on trading in "fictitious" accounts.
My point is that IMHO the VMC Motherboard lost its usefulness to many who used to appear regularly but left because they just quietly got tired of sifting thru all the noise.
Well, at least that's why I decided to stop paying the annual premium to IHub (which I had done for years just because I wanted to participate in VM Motherboard). While I freely admit that I have been more a lurker than participant much of the time, I just wanted to share with you guys what my impression was about the changes that occurred in usefulness of the Value Microcap Motherboard.
Regards to all,
Steve
IVP.to Ivanplatts put out a 43-101 summary today. Stockholders don't seem to be as enthralled as expected. Down about 2% on the "good news". I'platts goes I'splatt, so to speak!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/flatreef-discovery-expands-29-2-070200242.html
Originally I thought the purpose of the audit was to prepare for a merger (ancient history, perhaps) that never happened. I see no reason that an audit on its own would lift the stock.
If, on the other hand, the company also forecasts improving revenue growth rate due to:
(A) the new franchise operations in Texas, and
(B) expansion of their ApneaRX operations into North Carolina,
SHOM could then begin to tell a legitimate growth story and gain a real following among investors who focus on strong fundamentals.
Good luck to Jeff Sarvis and all SHOM stockholders! We all deserve a good year!
'peeker
IVP.to/IVPAF Started a position in Ivanplats today as the price made a little correction. I expect an updated resource calculation for their South African Platreef Project in the first half of February. It got talked up in Chen Lin's letter about a week or two ago.
TGA was in a promotion piece yesterday which helped it continue higher. However, today's dryhole news trumps Cramer's Stockpickr pitch.
http://www.stockpickr.com/4-stocks-ripping-higher-unusual-volume.html
Today could be a good opportunity to add to TGA at about $9; this is a well-established and very well-run company.
OT: Don Coxe retires his "Basic Points" publication:
After more than 20 years Don Coxe has put his publication “Basic Points”
to rest, publishing the last issue just before Christmas. This monthly publication
was to many of us “mustreading” as the 50-60 page publication on the markets had such a sense of history and details or ideas that panned the globe of thought—
everything from sun spot theories to what next for the plight of bees.
But his specialty was the natural resource sector which has been whacked of late and the charts on two of Coxe’s funds shows that he hasn’t had a lot of joy lately either. But his last issue suggests there is still hope...particularly for the gold bugs. If his crystal ball is correct, his latest issue entitled ‘The Final Problem’ he looks at the current world. One where the Asian economies are still booming, Europe is
stagnant and North America struggles and Coxe’s commentary is always enlightening and interesting...and comical!?
On the developing demographic problems such as in Japan where the population growth is shrinking rapidly and has too many grey hairs he writes, “A decade ago, we noted that Japan had more morticians than obstetricians, as deaths overtook births. The latest statistic is that sales of adult diapers there now exceed sales of babies' diapers. Canada will be in that fix within a few decades, and only the Latinos are
keeping the US from a similar profile—although second generation Latinos' birth rates are plummeting.” Cute.
Coxe is not a fan of Obama (but then neither are we) and he writes, “The President has "bargained" by doing what he enjoys most—flying out in his wondrous—and extremely costly—plane to speak to adoring audiences. He still wants to believe that he can singlehandedly solve all the nation's problems by talking to friendly crowds for TV clips. His only announced sizable budget cut in the Fiscal Cliff negotiations is to slash $1 trillion from future costs of fighting two wars. Conservatives compare this to cutting to building a ski resort on Mars.
IAE.to/IACAF operational update and 2013 Outlook
Ithaca Energy Inc.
Q4-2012 Production & 2013 Outlook
10 January 2013
Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) reports fourth quarter 2012 ("Q4-2012" or the "quarter") production results and provides guidance on the Company's planned 2013 production and capital expenditure programme.
Highlights
o Q4-2012 net average export production, including net production from the Cook and MacCulloch field interests being acquired from Noble Energy Inc. (the "Noble Assets"), was 6,631 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boepd"), within the Company's guidance range for the quarter.
o Net average export production for 2013 is forecast to be in the range of 6,000 to 6,700 boepd, including the net contribution anticipated from the Noble Assets.
o The Company's 2013 capital expenditure programme is focused on execution of the Greater Stella Area ("GSA") development and is anticipated to total US$360 million, which will be funded from existing financial resources.
Q4-2012 Production
Total net export production in the quarter, including net production from the Noble Assets, was 610,070 barrels of oil equivalent ("boe"), resulting in an average rate of 6,631 boepd, with approximately 90% being oil production. This represents a 31% increase on production in the third quarter of 2012 (Q3-2012: 5,061 boepd) and is within the Q4-2012 guidance range issued by the Company of 6,300 to 6,900 boepd.
Production in the quarter came from the operated Athena, Beatrice, Jacky and Anglia fields, the non-operated Cook, Broom and Topaz fields and the Noble Assets. The effective date of the Noble Assets acquisition is 1 January 2012, with completion anticipated to occur in Q1-2013.
Production in Q4-2012 benefited from strong performance by the Athena field, which continues to produce "dry" oil at a stable gross daily rate of between 10,000 and 11,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), 2,250 to 2,475 bopd net to Ithaca. Forecast production was achieved from the Beatrice, Jacky, Cook, Broom and MacCulloch Fields.
Both the Anglia and Topaz fields were shut-in for a considerable period during the quarter due to issues on the ConocoPhillips operated Lincolnshire Offshore Gas Gathering System ("LOGGS"), the gas export infrastructure that receives and transports gas from these fields to shore. Both fields came back online at the end of December 2012.
2013 Production and Capital Expenditure Programme Guidance
The Company's 2013 net average export production is anticipated to be in the range of 6,000 to 6,700 boepd, including approximately 1,000 boepd from the Noble Assets; approximately 90% is forecast to be oil production. Approximately 80% of total net production is anticipated to be derived from the Cook, Athena and Beatrice / Jacky fields.
The production guidance range reflects anticipated water breakthrough on the Athena field during 2013 and the impact of planned maintenance shutdowns, most notably including approximately 25 days on the Shell operated Anasuria FPSO, the host facility for the Cook field, and 20 days for the Beatrice Complex. The MacCulloch field is currently shut-in due to suspected damage resulting from the recent period of extreme weather in the North Sea. The field operator, ConocoPhillips, is currently investigating the exact nature of the damage and the schedule associated with reinstating production. The 2013 production guidance range allows for a potential extended shutdown period associated with the resumption of normal operations on the MacCulloch field.
The Company anticipates 2013 net capital expenditure to total approximately US$360 million. This expenditure is almost entirely focused on execution of the GSA development, involving commencement of the development drilling campaign, scheduled for late Q1-2013, performance of the key offshore subsea infrastructure installation works by Technip and the FPF-1 modifications programme by Petrofac at the Remontowa shipyard in Poland.
The Company will fund the 2013 capital expenditure programme from its existing cash balance, anticipated cashflow from its producing asset portfolio and some of its currently undrawn US$430 million debt facility.
Over the course of 2013, the Company intends to issue quarterly operational updates (alongside its usual quarterly production updates) highlighting progress on key GSA development activities. Specific announcements are anticipated to be issued upon the completion of milestones including for example, commencement of the development drilling campaign and completion of each well, execution of the subsea infrastructure installation works and completion of various stages of work on the FPF-1.
Additional Information
An updated corporate presentation is available on the Company's website, www.ithacaenergy.com. The presentation includes a production and cashflow outlook for the years 2013-15. Specific guidance for the years 2014 and 2015 will be provided at the start of each of these years. Shareholders should note that cashflows from operations includes the impact of executed hedges and does not include non-cash items such as depreciation, depletion and amortisation ("DD&A"), revaluation of financial instruments, impairments of fixed assets and movements in goodwill, each of which may have a significant impact on the Company's profit.
The Company intends to publish its full year 2012 accounts and year-end reserves, as evaluated by Sproule International Limited, on 26 March 2013.
SHOM may also have experienced some initial costs in support of the two new franchise offices in TX. It's not clear what costs SHOM bears up front to assist new franchisees in office and system setup.
My expectation would be that SHOM pays certain setup costs and gets paid back thru the initial franchise fee plus small monthly percentage of each franchisees revenues.
'peeker
PRY.v/PNCGF ... Pinecrest Energy down a few cents and having a big volume day. Anyone know why?
Although the new franchise opening is a positive thing, it is not a major revenue driver. Most of SHOM revenues do not come from Encore (their medical staffing franchise services), but rather from APNEA RX (their respiratory care) business.
You should not expect any significant lift in stock price from the opening of the two new franchise offices in TX.
Regards,
'peeker
My subscription just expired, so I am no longer able to post messages to the VMC Motherboard. I've just about decided not to renew my IHUB Premier membership (required for VMC Motherboard posting) since most investments lately have been dividend stocks and Energy stocks.
Recently I signed up for IV Premier where the MMT board and Oil & Gas Discussion BB are more tuned to my everyday interests, as I remain very overweight Oil producers.
I will continue to use VMC Jr. Energy board for monitoring some stock, particularly MMT, POE, IAE and DTX.
Salutations to you all.
Have a Great 2013!
'peeker
If House approves, that doesn't necessarily mean stock buyers go nuts. In fact, most Americans get a 2% tax increase since the bill won't extend the payroll tax holiday.
Still, we can be optimistic for a few days. Unfortunately the whole Congressional issue of deciding which Federal spending to cut will be the big topic throughout the year, especially since the debt ceiling increase must be approved again within the next 2-3 months.
Nope, the current fiscal cliff "solution" is not really a major solution to the US/world's systemic economic problems.
Good luck in 2013 to all VMC players nonetheless!
'peeker
Yr-end tax-loss selling provided good buying opportunity for adding to SHOM, sooo I did.
Yr-end tax-loss selling provided good buying opportunity for adding to SHOM, sooo I did.
Fiscal Cliff Crunch Time ((( One Perspective )))
Time is running very short for any agreement to alter the current "fiscal cliff" legislation due to take effect January 1. S&P futures suggest a modest up open - but that was also the case yesterday before an ensuing mid-day sell-off. Underlying sentiment is fragile.
Congress reportedly will resume negotiations today on fiscal issues. Whether or not any deal will be reached is as debatable as the economic consequences of the vast multitude of issues involved.
Asian stock markets were mixed, with China down and Japan up. European exchanges are fractionally higher.
New claims for unemployment for the week ended December 22 fell 12,000 to 350,000. This is slightly better than the recent underlying trend and better than expected. Nevertheless, the data understandably didn't precipitate much market response given other concerns.
It is all about the fiscal cliff now. Headlines out of Washington could lead to over-reaction and volatile swings in the markets. Optimistic statements from politicians (and pessimistic ones as well) could reflect political posturing as much as true progress. Or, there finally could be real progress. There are many that believe Washington will act now that it is truly crunch time.
For all but the most risk-tolerant market participants, it is a time for patience rather than action. There is simply no way to effectively analyze how the market fundamentals will be impacted by political developments.
Dick Green
Chairman, Briefing.com