Short term momentum trader.
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Profit shorts covering, and new shorts coming aboard.
Should fall below $9 in here pretty soon.
Why would big investment firm buy sinking ship stock @9.65
when they can pick it up cheaper in open market over time.
This just doesn't make sense.
Therefore, I speculate, they may buy JCP and hedge with
call option selling or buying put option.
Wells Fargo lowered target to $4-5, and says that JCP shares are now worth about 30% less.
Other analyst are also lowering their target price by big margin.
The best thing longs can do today is sell immediately in premarket,
and buy put options if JCP makes any type of bounce.
Its going to be bloody next few days.
Raising capital to keep up with growing business can be actually applauded by investors,
but what we have with JCP is a dire situation where this is a desperate attempt
to stop JCP from spiraling into credit squeeze and eventual bankruptcy.
JCP had so much turmoil in their top management and business strategy
that investors growing wary of their capability keep this ship from sinking.
With MM and big money manipulation, JCP can make big swings in both directions today.
But when it's all settled, I believe it's headed lower to $7 or below range in the near future.
The only way firm way JCP can regain the investors confidence is to deliver a solid earnings
at some point, which they've been promising, but in reality it's been getting worse
as evident by the massive new offering.
Basically JCP lied to the market again.
How many times we've seen this now in the past 18 months or so.
JCP was crashing hard on Thursday pre-market, only to sharply
reverse back up on company's lying statement.
They did this to keep the price inflated so that they can do the
secondary offering at higher price so they dilute less shares.
In order to arrange a billion dollar secondary offering,
it would take weeks to prepare, so they knew this all along
as Goldman Sachs and Citibank hinted to the market on earlier
in the week.
Since SEC filing is for 84M new shares with option to increase it
to 97M, the difference of the two is ~15%. The reason for this is
they need to raise about $1B depending on the stock price.
I think the secondary offering will be around $8.80 to $9.80 range
depending on how JCP trades. But given the whopping 38% to 44%
dilution in shares, and huge debt, I gotta believe JCP is headed to
near $7 or below in upcoming days/weeks.
I just hope it occurs before my Oct 4 put option expiration. :)
The only way JCP will see a major bounce is if they actually
come out with solid earning and forecast, but this is a rather
low probability as analysts are doubting the turnaround is
working, and company has admitted to slow progress.
With many high level executives and biggest stock holders leaving
JCP, I won't be totally surprise to see JCP file for bankruptcy
sometime in 2Q in 2014 if their holiday sales numbers show
monster loss.
I am looking to pick up some Mar or May 2014 put options.
Bought Oct 4 Put Options at .18 cents today.
When it hit .31 cents, it was up 72%,
but it closed at .25 cents or 38%.
Option plays, particularly the short term expiration one
like I'm playing is extremely risky because...
1) You have to guess the direction correctly
2) And stock has to move in that direction sufficiently
to overcome the fast eroding time value.
Confusing? Well that's extremely simplified explanation of
how option play works.
That said, if JCP drops to $8 by Oct 4,
my gain would be around whopping 733%.
If JCP drops to $7 by Oct 4,
my gain would be astronomic 1,300%
However, if JCP stays above $9.50 by Oct 4,
I would have near 100% loss.
Finally, between now and Oct 4, I could always close
(basically sell) it with whatever profit/loss I have at the moment.
Due to this risky nature, I only bought 100 contracts.
Since each contract controls 100 shares,
my entry cost was.
100 (contracts) x 100 (shares) x .18 cents = $1800
And it went up as high as .31 cents after my entry
but closed at .25 cents ($2500 value).
Since JCP tanked about .50 cents in AH, and if that continues
into somewhere in $8s, I stand to make several 100% gain.
In summary, when you are accurate on the price direction
and the amount in certain time period, you can make a killing.
But...the dark side is, most lose money quicker playing options
than stocks, so don't try it without doing over 100+ paper trades
and produce (paper) profit.
GLTU
JCP CEO Lied Again, 38% dilution should technically drop
JCP to $6.5 if we use the round up close number of $10.50 for today.
My guess is that JCP will trade in $8 to $8.50 level in the pre-market
and once market opens and big bears get on board, we may see
JCP in $7s.
If you like JCP for long run, then you may want to dump your
long position tonight while you have few minutes left,
and pick it back up tomorrow at cheaper price.
I am sitting on put option that's up 50% and I expect to
another 100% to 150% gain on top of that.
It will be bloddy tomorrow.
GLTA
JCP tanking hard in AH ($9.80)
I think we will see JCP near $8 and possibly into $7
either tomorrow or next week.
Until JCP actually reports on solid earning that demonstrate
their turnaround, their recurring promise statements have not
held up.
Right now, JCP is reportedly running short on cash to stock up
for holiday season and may need to raise more capital again,
so we'll see further dilution of shares.
I'm glad that I'm sitting on put option right now.
Picked up 3K at $6.25 average.
Chart showing nice reversal.
Could see $8 on this continuation, and must more
if it can get above $8.
Huge gap to fill.
RNA making a run after a monster 80% drop.
JCP has been saying every quarter that they are turning around,
yet reporting disaster earnings.
This is all public PR so you can check it out.
I wouldn't give their PR too much credit as they've
totally misled investors for many quarters now.
Why not dream about $100.
The only reality is in the chart.
I predict that JCP will trickle its way down to near $7.
AGREE...Multi-day tanking to near $7 target
that Citibank analyst predicted.
Sad to see a major retailer struggle, but
that's the consequence of capitalism at work.
Strong ones thrive and weak ones suffer.
NEWL (Nasdaq) up 69%. Major breakout!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yup...start of a major breakout.
LLEN on Monster breakout!!!!!!!!!!!!
LLEN must be refuting GeoInvesting.
Could we see $2 in the near future?
Volume is very heavy so something is going on here.
Finally nice pop.
All out at $26 from agonizing $23 entry....
As predicted, NUGT hits $40s, and DUST hits $35s
Are you still buying NUGTs?
Gold is continuing to sink in Asia right now,
touching $1315 at the moment and it'll likely break down below $1300
between now and US market hours.
NUGT should see $40s and dust should see $35+ this week.
I think going long on DUST is safer this week.
Generally inreasing fear sends gold up,
but NUGT may tank with the market.
NUGT price is derived from mining stocks
and not from physical gold.
A better play on market tumbling might be UVXY.
QE Tapering Approaching. Hedge Play Folks.
Now it's time to keep a list of inverse ETFs and VIX closely.
DUST (3x short gold)
DSLV (3x short silver)
UVXY (3x VIX)
There are many other 3x ETF also for SPY, DIA, etc.
Keep them near you and get ready to hedge!!!
Since I'm a freebie member, this is my last (15th)
message for the day.
Best of luck to you all!!!
Market is Down Cuz October QE Taper Comment
Since market is bit on the overbought side,
I think market is headed for more fall next week
and Gold and NUGT is in for the same ride.
UVXY (3x VIX ETF) may be a better play in the short term.
NUGT sinks to $55.02, Gold tanks -$36
I think more disaster is ahead unfortunately.
Marketing and Gold are tanking,
and Fed basically hinted October QE tapering is now likely
this morning.
That's triple-whammy for NUGT for today.
Also, NUGT has been finishing the day in the direction
where it made the big % move during the day.
I strongly suspect that NUGT is closing on the low side today.
My best guess right now is that NUGT will close $55 to $57 range today.
But then again, what do I know, this gold market is seriously
manipulated that anything can happen.
If anyone is picking up NUGT long for bounce play,
that's not a totally bad idea, but they may want to
set a stop limit so that it doesn't run away quickly.
GLTA
FIO showing some accumulation despite down market day.
Had market been positive, FIO likely would have broken $15.
It got as close as $14.90.
I do think physical metals will do better than mining stocks through 2014.
Non-stop falling: gold down -$32 ($1333) now.
USLV (silver) is taking a bigger beating, down -16%
Huge manipulation in the market...
so we just have to stay nimble and play the volatility.
Gold down $25 to $1,339, NUGT down -12%
Might close near $55 where the monster spike started.
Chance of QE tapering in October just increased
based on St. Louis Fed President this morning.
NUGT may see low $50s to mid $40s in the next few weeks.
Covered DUST @30 from 25 entry.
St. Louis Chair said QE tapering was a borderline decision
during this morning's interview.
I think fed's doing everything possible to alert the market
its coming soon without causing a major jolt.
I sold this way too soon...
just as the breakout was starting...darn.
Got order in at $4.50 in case it drops that much...
Just looking for quick bounce play between pre-market to opening hours.
If I don't get hit in pre-market, I'll cancel and reevaluate.
Gold tanking nearly $20 to $1345 level.
We could see $57 ~ $58 as low range.
Holding dust from $25 for the moment.
Hardly a profit after trade commissions,
we are literally talking coin pocket change.
What's important is that I regain the $2k loss. Whew.
Looking at the NUGT crash...damn I should've kept it
little longer...but I was just glad to recoup the loss.
Now I'm profiting in DUST from $25 entry.
This is my IRA position, so I'll probably hold out for $36+.
So...(unfortunately I have)
100 shares @ 62.5
100 shares @ 64
200 shares @ 75
from yesterday for average of about $69.
Just covered at $68.78.
Went from being down over $2K yesterday
to pocket change gain. Whew...
I'm also long on Dust at $25 and that I'm holding in my IRA.
Yup sitting on $64.50 average.
Not looking good right now.
Normally, I set stop limit after the purchase
but this one took off in seconds...
So my earlier gain in HIMX is all wiped out with NUGT.
Shorted again @65...now $64.50 average...