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Nice! Curious, how long ago did you buy?
OT: This is pretty shocking. A couple of artificial intelligence sites have been open for public use for only a few months. According to this Wharton professor, these sites are close to being able to pass some of the toughest professional exams:
I think we haven't fully absorbed the fact that careful academic papers have found ChatGPT clearly passes some of the most challenging American professional exams:
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) January 22, 2023
🩺United States Medical Licensing Exam
🎓MBA-level Operations exam
🧑⚖️The Bar Exam (based on typical exam questions) pic.twitter.com/D4kX6XH8GR
Re natgas, kind of dubious that Freeport says they've completed all their work and submitted an application to begin some procedures that will lead to re-start. They want the Feds to respond in one day. Sounds laughable, but I have no idea how long such a response normally takes. Freeport hasn't had the best relationship with the Feds thus far. Unless the Feds have already approved everything and this is just a formality, this feels like Freeport is trying to pressure the Feds. We'll see how it goes:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-says-completed-repairs-183638290.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-freeport-lng-says-completed-192547879.html
Re natgas, kind of dubious that Freeport says they've completed all their work and submitted an application to begin some procedures that will lead to re-start. They want the Feds to respond in one day. Sounds laughable, but I have no idea how long such a response normally takes. Freeport hasn't had the best relationship with the Feds thus far. Unless the Feds have already approved everything and this is just a formality, this feels like Freeport is trying to pressure the Feds. We'll see how it goes:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-says-completed-repairs-183638290.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-freeport-lng-says-completed-192547879.html
Re Credit Card Rates, now passed the peak of '85
Credit card interest rates continue to soar and have now passed peak seen in 1985 per @NewYorkFed data pic.twitter.com/oK0dwXvCsU
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 18, 2023
NIce!
NG - Freeport restart may extend to February. Shocking! Freeport LNG is private so no idea of their financials, but one has to wonder if they don't have to face some sort of bk or restructuring. We'll be looking at 3/4 of a year with no operations, no money coming in the door. That's tough for any company to survive:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-may-extend-texas-172328653.html
Re credit card debt, I'm sure you get credit card offers in the mail, same here. I usually just tear them up. Couple days ago, decided to open one from CapitalOne. Talk about shock. They offer a few months of 0% interest and then 26.99% after that! I mean holy crap, that's almost impossible to pay off debt at that rate.
NG more firmly into the 3's this morning. Getting closer to where it's traded historically. Europe gas now around $70, down from $300+. Record high winter temps in Europe.
Energy - More trouble ahead? Cramer has a near-perfect track record of being wrong . . . and he's predicting a boom:
Charts suggest oil, natural gas and wheat could be due for a ‘boom,’ Jim Cramer says https://t.co/2uryrGz383
— CNBC (@CNBC) January 3, 2023
NG (briefly?) breaks into the 3's.
Due to exceptionally weak heating demand, I'm projecting a very bearish +2 BCF daily #natgas storage injection today. However, today will be a near-term bottom for gas demand. Nonetheless, I still expect withdrawals to be at or below the 5-yr avg for at least the next 10-14 days. pic.twitter.com/tNbSQFgVJx
— Celsius Energy (@CelsiusEnergyFM) January 3, 2023
NG (briefly?) breaks into the 3's.
Due to exceptionally weak heating demand, I'm projecting a very bearish +2 BCF daily #natgas storage injection today. However, today will be a near-term bottom for gas demand. Nonetheless, I still expect withdrawals to be at or below the 5-yr avg for at least the next 10-14 days. pic.twitter.com/tNbSQFgVJx
— Celsius Energy (@CelsiusEnergyFM) January 3, 2023
LUV - Final post on this. I don't watch much news, so the only reason I even know about it is becuz I have a relative currently stranded and thought it was a one-off thing. Southwest is based in Dallas, never seen anything like it:
Every single @SouthwestAir arrival into @DallasLoveField is currently #cancelled ✈️ 🆘 pic.twitter.com/7EiXoOXjcN
— Kelly Laco (@kelly_laco) December 26, 2022
LUV - Kind of surprised on Southwest. I thought it would be down maybe 20%. The market doesn't seem to think the problems are that big of a deal. They've cancelled nearly 70% of flights and many peeps are gonna be stranded at airports for 5-7 days:
What a mess. This is the Southwest Airlines baggage claim at Tampa International. There’s 24 more Southwest flights canceled this morning. Many tags on these stranded bags are from travelers from Denver, Houston and Baltimore @BN9 pic.twitter.com/4C6XFA9eib
— Angie Angers (@angie_angers) December 27, 2022
ACDC - Nice! The vertically-integrated thing sure seems like would be a huge benefit to customers and it seems to be working thus far.
LUV - Will be interesting to see how far Southwest Airlines tumbles tomorrow. Leaving massive numbers of people stranded right around Christmas and keeping them stranded in airports till after New Year's -- that's gonna be one massive class action lawsuit settlement. Seems like maybe something majorly wrong with the organization
OT: Merry Christmas to All
ACDC Yes, indeed. Nice move
-Merrry Christmas to you and everyone on the board!
BDCO has seen some improved bid size for a number of days
AATC I bought a small number of shares this morning at 3.79. My logic/guess is that most of the massive selling is from funds that cannot hold shares in OTC companies. And those fund managers are likely to be off for the holidays for all the days after today and before New Year's, and they might as well sell of this position before the end of the year, so sell today. We'll see.
NG - Freeport has been so accurate on their estimated re-start dates that I see no reason not to trust them lol.
I'd guess end of Jan is best case scenario and assumes little to no disagreement from the regulators. If the Feds don't find the answers to be satisfactory, not implausible it could stretch out a few more months. My wild guess is that Feb/March is probably more realistic. Heck, at some point it's got to end.
AATC - The director buying, when I'm guessing he had to know the de-listing was coming, is the thing I find most odd. You don't have to be a huge master of the stock market to know that the price is going to go down when de-listing is announced. So why would he buy right ahead of that?
Just no experience in stock trading? I don't get it.
So you're saying there's a chance! lol One of the fun movie lines:
BDCO - Looks like some of that volume was the CEO buying:
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/blue-dolphin-energy-qx-BDCO/stock-news/89802712/statement-of-changes-in-beneficial-ownership-4
Car Repos -- any ideas on how to play this? This thread is a little hypey, but interesting:
This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending.
— Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) December 16, 2022
I'm now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.
Here's what I discovered (and what no one knows):
BDCO No news that I'm aware of. This one certainly jumps around a lot. But yeah, pretty good volume today. I'm clueless as to why
NG - re Freeport re-opening, Feds had a long list of demands:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-regulator-issues-new-list-demands-freeport-lng-restart-2022-12-13/
Re Freeport - Feds came back with long list of demands before they can open:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-regulator-issues-new-list-demands-freeport-lng-restart-2022-12-13/
Yeah, the cock-sure mgt team also wanted to go into debt to do another buyback at prices well above where we are now. Thank goodness that didn't go thru; That would have been disastrous. Also, very young and never lived thru inflationary times. Very underwhelming so far.
YE - Checked again this morning, still no one applying for this ticker symbol :)
CPE and LPI, curious as to which months you're writing calls. Jan? Apr?
XOP is getting closer to filling its gap in the chart, but XLE has almost another 10pts before it gets to its gap. Doesn't have to get there, but of all the charting voodoo, gaps getting filled is one I've noticed does tend to happen
OT: Twitter, round 2 of the Twitter files exposing what a rigged game it is. This batch is from Bari Weiss, who resigned from the NY Times when it started going woke:
THREAD: THE TWITTER FILES PART TWO.
— Bari Weiss (@bariweiss) December 9, 2022
TWITTER’S SECRET BLACKLISTS.
Crude Oil futures prices I think are giving us a reminder that even if China does re-open, as they are claiming, after a lockdown it's not like flipping a lightswitch. We know this from our own stupid lockdown experience in the US. Chinese energy demand will take time to recover
Taiwan exports tend to be a bit of a leading indicator for electronics. Taiwan Nov exports -13.1% y/y vs -6.7% Reuters poll. This compared to .5% drop in Oct:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-global-warning-signs-taiwans-084446958.html
OT: Twitter, I actually think the story indicates that all is not well at the NY Times, as well as nearly every other mainstream media publication. They've nearly all been in bed with the govt and trying to silence any sort of dissent against the govt. That is starting to come to light. They had a rigged game, and they were one of the beneficiaries. Now Elon is exposing that and to save their own backside, they're all now saying Elon is horrible and the business is doomed. In the first few days they were saying Twitter was going to collapse and basically just stop working because of Elon's mass firings . . . . it didn't. Now it's all the advertisers are going to leave.
A reasonable question to ask is why do they (the media) care so much about Twitter? It's not even a public company anymore. So what if advertising revenue is down, the public is no longer invested so whom is the media out to save? I don't know if Elon Musk is good or not, but I've become incredibly suspicious of mainstream media as they've simply become a bullhorn for govt/corporate propaganda and their own self-interests, even if it means reporting untruths. I now look at all new stories and say, "okay, that's what they want me to believe, now I have to go out and determine if it's true." Corporate media insists on full transparency from everyone . . . but themselves. The minute you question big corporate media companies and their conflicts of interest, out come all the typical accusations that you're a racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, blah, blah, etc. I think they fear Twitter is becoming a competitor rather than a partner in crime.
The media used to be incredibly suspicious of big pharma, and rightly so. Now they're almost totally in bed with them. Almost none of them did any due diligence, because a huge chunk of their ad revenue was coming from big pharma. Makes total sense to me that all the corrupt advertisers (the ones who want ONLY their narrative to be told and any dissenters to be crushed) have stopped advertising on Twitter. And Musk seems to be making an effort towards real de-centralized citizen journalism (more like substack) and away from centralized, approval required, command-and-control "we'll decide what you can say" sorts of sites like youtube, NY Times, The Atlantic, and many others.
It's Orwellian. The euphemisms and doublespeak: "it's not censorship, it's content moderation." Glenn Greenwald, a gay man who is married to his husband, and one of the few remaining reporters with integrity put is best:
NG - Reuters now reporting that Freeport LNG facility restart has been pushed back yet again to "around year end."
Again, this doesn't pass the smell test. Next year seems far more likely. This is like the 4th or 5th time they've pushed back the restart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-expects-restart-texas-161545252.html
NG - Reuters now reporting that Freeport LNG facility restart has been pushed back yet again to "around year end."
Again, this doesn't pass the smell test. Next year seems far more likely. This is like the 4th or 5th time they've pushed back the restart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-expects-restart-texas-161545252.html
AGAE Boy, somebody really wants out immediately, for some reason
AGAE Yeah, seems like an odd decline. One never knows if it's stupid sellers or smart sellers who know something.