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AATC - The director buying, when I'm guessing he had to know the de-listing was coming, is the thing I find most odd. You don't have to be a huge master of the stock market to know that the price is going to go down when de-listing is announced. So why would he buy right ahead of that?
Just no experience in stock trading? I don't get it.
So you're saying there's a chance! lol One of the fun movie lines:
BDCO - Looks like some of that volume was the CEO buying:
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/blue-dolphin-energy-qx-BDCO/stock-news/89802712/statement-of-changes-in-beneficial-ownership-4
Car Repos -- any ideas on how to play this? This thread is a little hypey, but interesting:
This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending.
— Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) December 16, 2022
I'm now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.
Here's what I discovered (and what no one knows):
BDCO No news that I'm aware of. This one certainly jumps around a lot. But yeah, pretty good volume today. I'm clueless as to why
NG - re Freeport re-opening, Feds had a long list of demands:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-regulator-issues-new-list-demands-freeport-lng-restart-2022-12-13/
Re Freeport - Feds came back with long list of demands before they can open:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-regulator-issues-new-list-demands-freeport-lng-restart-2022-12-13/
Yeah, the cock-sure mgt team also wanted to go into debt to do another buyback at prices well above where we are now. Thank goodness that didn't go thru; That would have been disastrous. Also, very young and never lived thru inflationary times. Very underwhelming so far.
YE - Checked again this morning, still no one applying for this ticker symbol :)
CPE and LPI, curious as to which months you're writing calls. Jan? Apr?
XOP is getting closer to filling its gap in the chart, but XLE has almost another 10pts before it gets to its gap. Doesn't have to get there, but of all the charting voodoo, gaps getting filled is one I've noticed does tend to happen
OT: Twitter, round 2 of the Twitter files exposing what a rigged game it is. This batch is from Bari Weiss, who resigned from the NY Times when it started going woke:
THREAD: THE TWITTER FILES PART TWO.
— Bari Weiss (@bariweiss) December 9, 2022
TWITTER’S SECRET BLACKLISTS.
Crude Oil futures prices I think are giving us a reminder that even if China does re-open, as they are claiming, after a lockdown it's not like flipping a lightswitch. We know this from our own stupid lockdown experience in the US. Chinese energy demand will take time to recover
Taiwan exports tend to be a bit of a leading indicator for electronics. Taiwan Nov exports -13.1% y/y vs -6.7% Reuters poll. This compared to .5% drop in Oct:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-global-warning-signs-taiwans-084446958.html
OT: Twitter, I actually think the story indicates that all is not well at the NY Times, as well as nearly every other mainstream media publication. They've nearly all been in bed with the govt and trying to silence any sort of dissent against the govt. That is starting to come to light. They had a rigged game, and they were one of the beneficiaries. Now Elon is exposing that and to save their own backside, they're all now saying Elon is horrible and the business is doomed. In the first few days they were saying Twitter was going to collapse and basically just stop working because of Elon's mass firings . . . . it didn't. Now it's all the advertisers are going to leave.
A reasonable question to ask is why do they (the media) care so much about Twitter? It's not even a public company anymore. So what if advertising revenue is down, the public is no longer invested so whom is the media out to save? I don't know if Elon Musk is good or not, but I've become incredibly suspicious of mainstream media as they've simply become a bullhorn for govt/corporate propaganda and their own self-interests, even if it means reporting untruths. I now look at all new stories and say, "okay, that's what they want me to believe, now I have to go out and determine if it's true." Corporate media insists on full transparency from everyone . . . but themselves. The minute you question big corporate media companies and their conflicts of interest, out come all the typical accusations that you're a racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, blah, blah, etc. I think they fear Twitter is becoming a competitor rather than a partner in crime.
The media used to be incredibly suspicious of big pharma, and rightly so. Now they're almost totally in bed with them. Almost none of them did any due diligence, because a huge chunk of their ad revenue was coming from big pharma. Makes total sense to me that all the corrupt advertisers (the ones who want ONLY their narrative to be told and any dissenters to be crushed) have stopped advertising on Twitter. And Musk seems to be making an effort towards real de-centralized citizen journalism (more like substack) and away from centralized, approval required, command-and-control "we'll decide what you can say" sorts of sites like youtube, NY Times, The Atlantic, and many others.
It's Orwellian. The euphemisms and doublespeak: "it's not censorship, it's content moderation." Glenn Greenwald, a gay man who is married to his husband, and one of the few remaining reporters with integrity put is best:
NG - Reuters now reporting that Freeport LNG facility restart has been pushed back yet again to "around year end."
Again, this doesn't pass the smell test. Next year seems far more likely. This is like the 4th or 5th time they've pushed back the restart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-expects-restart-texas-161545252.html
NG - Reuters now reporting that Freeport LNG facility restart has been pushed back yet again to "around year end."
Again, this doesn't pass the smell test. Next year seems far more likely. This is like the 4th or 5th time they've pushed back the restart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lng-expects-restart-texas-161545252.html
AGAE Boy, somebody really wants out immediately, for some reason
AGAE Yeah, seems like an odd decline. One never knows if it's stupid sellers or smart sellers who know something.
Energy, this guy isn't followed much on youtube, but I find him to be quite good:
LMB keeps showing up on my new highs list. Hadn't followed it at all since it collapsed. But they have announced a buyback and insiders are buying shares. Sounds like their expansion of ODR business is coming along.
It's run awfully far awfully fast, but I think I'm gonna put it back on my watch list
That was one of the things I found so odd about Freeport's latest PR. It seems self-contradictory:
"As of November 14th, the reconstruction work necessary to commence initial operations, including utilization of all three liquefaction trains, two LNG storage tanks and one dock, was approximately 90% complete, with all reconstruction work anticipated to be completed by the end of November."
Sounds reasonable enough. But then in the very next line, they're talking about "proposed remedial work" that still needs approval:
"Proposed remedial work activities for a safe restart of initial operations have been submitted to the relevant regulatory agencies for review and approval. Subject to Freeport LNG meeting its regulatory requirements, it is targeting initial production at the facility in mid-December."
Plus, these two articles seem to indicate that the regulators are a little pissed at the way Freeport is portraying things. On 11/15 Freeport released their root cause report PR, two days later the regulators seemed pissed and apparently released the full report:
https://marcellusdrilling.com/2022/11/phmsa-releases-redacted-version-of-freeport-lng-explosion-report/
And then on 11/18 the company issued it's latest PR, and a couple days later a Reuters article tells a very different story:
https://www.saltwire.com/cape-breton/business/freeport-lng-yet-to-submit-texas-plant-restart-request-to-regulator-source-100797869/
BDCO I don't think anyone can accuse them of being masters of PR. ha. They finally announce some news on their debt and defaults, and they release it after-hours right before Thanksgiving. Oh well. It's good to at least have a little more clarity on where it all stands:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-dolphin-announces-veritex-forbearance-234000495.html
Thank you, Sir. And right back at you, Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Oh sheesh, thanks, I must have scrolled right past that.
NG - The Freeport closure has been odd. I'd be surprised if it re-opened in any way before next year. I think this is now the third time that the re-start date has been pushed pack. And this time, the Feds even put out a public statement basically saying, come on Freeport, get your full of report of the incident to us so we can get moving. Then finally Freeport handed it in, but they haven't even started any repair work yet. So the odds seem very low of the Feds having no disagreements or suggestions on the plan, they approve it almost immediately, then all the repair work gets done in a week or two, then the Feds come in and do final inspection of the repairs to approve any sort of re-opening . . . and all of these things occur during the holiday season?
Anything's possible, but it seems unlikely.
Fully Diluted Share Count?
Bob, I'm fairly new to the story. Sounds like Art is convinced they're full funded and won't need to raise anymore. But my question is, after all the raises and the latest warrant exercise, what is the fully diluted share count right now? (Anyone else feel free to chime in also)
Sure wish the media would stick to reporting facts, rather than "citing sources close to the situation" or whatever other euphemisms they want to use to print rumors.
Never had less trust in all media. WSJ used to be pretty reliable, but just recently I think they were also the ones reporting "the fed might pivot" based on "conversations with so and so."
Just like the energy etfs, nearly all the oil and gas services etfs have gaps in their charts quite a bit further down. OIH, XES, IEZ, PXJ
Freeport now says targeting mid-December. Sounds doubtful especially when they just submitted their proposed remedial paperwork to the Feds. So they're gonna get approval from the feds on a super short timeline, then get the work done in just a couple of weeks, with Thanksgiving holiday in between? Sounds very dubious to me:
http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9753&intAcc_ID=77
creede, the real irony is that LMB has done better than my oil and gas stocks. lol
I'm with you on t-bills gilead. 8-week, 13-week, and 17-week have been what I'm sticking to.
Starting to feel like energy stocks are struggling to move higher.
I'm not big into all the voodoo charting, but gaps getting filled is something the I've noticed over the years does tend to happen, for whatever reason. A lot of the energy indices have gaps quite a bit below where we are now, plus we've come a long way pretty quickly.
XLE currently around 90 has a gap at 74.48:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xle&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
FENY currently around 25 has a gap at 20.55:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=feny&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
PSCE currently around 11 has a gap at 8.88
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=psce&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
We'll see what happens. (Now watch energy stocks blast higher! lol)
Starting to feel like energy is struggling to move higher.
I'm not big into all the voodoo charting, but gaps getting filled is something the I've noticed over the years does tend to happen, for whatever reason. A lot of the energy indices have gaps quite a bit below where we are now, plus we've come a long way pretty quickly.
XLE currently around 90 has a gap at 74.48:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xle&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
FENY currently around 25 has a gap at 20.55:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=feny&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
PSCE currently around 11 has a gap at 8.88
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=psce&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p01926711171
We'll see what happens. (Now watch energy markets blast higher! lol)
BDCO - ha Bmrboy. I guess my ultimate take on BDCO is it's not a little risk, but a lotta risk. Hweb probably uses the better term of it's a gamble. Because to me, the risk is existential, as in, the company might not exist tomorrow. Lenders very clearly still have the right to accelerate the loan, foreclose, do whatever.
On the flipside, the reason the trading pattern of the stock kind of makes sense to me (moves up into earnings, then crashes after), is that if/when the company ever does say they are no longer in default on their debts, well, now you have a very different risk level and you really could see the price move up 3-5 times in a period of days, weeks, or months. The company *claims* to have made $23m in net income in 9 months, and yet they're STILL not out of default on $63m in debt?
To be fair, the company now shows $6m in cash, (but mgt says this will be used in the near term to re-pay past due amounts to Veritex). Company also shows about $16.5 more in inventory. So, if it's all true, it sort of jibes as to where the $23m went. And debt (excluding accrued interest) is down about $5.5m, so maybe some progress is being made. But doesn't seem like they're out of the woods. The share count has also increased by 2m or about 17%
And probably the biggest issue for me is that you have a CEO that is purposely keeping shareholders in the dark regarding the defaults. That's not good. Anybody on this board knows full well that if we were CEO and trying to give an honest picture to our shareholders, we KNOW the sharedholders would want and deserve to know about the default situation. Is it improving, what's the gameplan, what's the timeline, what's being done, are we paying off one at a time, or a little to every lender to keep them all happy? Instead, in press releases CEO boasts only about the income statement and doesn't even mention defaults. If you just read the press releases and not the filings, you wouldn't even know the company is deeply in debt and default.
I never like to see that kind of differential disclosure. So I think you kind of have to know, going in, that you're dealing with mgt that is less than forthcoming, on purpose. What else might they be purposely hiding?
So it's sort of a hold your nose and take a small gamble type of situation for me.
BDCO Bought a small amount at 1.20 and have some more orders in the low 1.10s. But I still consider it to be pretty risky. Don't know for sure how much of it is true. Lots of related party, affiliated company stuff. High interest loans in default, etc. It's dicey
BDCO - Earnings PR out today, but it's not helping much:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/bdco/news/Blue-Dolphin-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Results-Third-Consecutive-Quarter-of-Strong-Operational-Performance?id=380568
Thank you, Sir.
Freeport just yesterday 11/15 came out with its root cause report on the accident. No timeline for restart. I believe the Feds still have to review the report and plan and they may have additional recommendations.
All of this during the holidays.
Looking more like next year before restart:
http://www.newsrouter.com/NewsRouter_Uploads/77/Freeport%20LNG%20Provides%20Summary%20of%20Root%20Cause%20Failure%20Analysis%20Report%20on%20June%208%20Incident.pdf
Have you talked to mgt? I guess I'm wondering if they plan on running it as an ongoing business or if they're preparing for the company for sale
Maybe finally turning the corner? Any further updates you're aware of, other than the filings?