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re activation
I have not posted for a while. Well... just like I predicted a year ago, there were no activations before Vista. Now that Vista is out there, there are numbers of potential big and small clients who are about to activate WAVX software. They're going thru the usual tests and trials, etc. It's a matter of months, if not weeks in some cases. As soon as the first couple of clients/contracts are announced, the SP is gonna go thru the roof. Until then, the usual lingering under a pre-split $1 imo.
DRM, oh yea the $5 rule. some of them have a $3 rule these days though, so I suspect some institutional money went into this stock yesterday. the big story right now is all the money coming out of the housing market and going into the stocks. The funds have tons of cash to invest these days...
true.eom
thanks for the advise.
while i don't like people pretending like the split never happened, i must admit it was not such a bad idea after all. SP would have been about $1.10 and fighting to stay above a buck right now, a juicy target for shorts, and a turn-off for many new investors. $3.30 sure looks much more appealing. lol.
why is sp is going up.
imo there will be no major news in the upcoming weeks.
there are two major reasons why the sp is moving up.
1. major negatives that were holding it down are gone: sec investigation and delisting threat.
2. the mood on wall street has changed dramatically over the past 2 months. it's not quite late 1990s yet, but the feeling is Nasdaq might be headed back to 5000 over the next year or two. everybody starts looking for current version of yahoo, csco or ebay. there is a nice buzz about wavx. so there u go.
i would love to see something like 5 mil but that won't happen. it will be higher than the previous quater but not dramatically higher, imo. probably around 1.5 mil. that's not my point though. like i said many times on this board in the past, i don't beleive the activation will start until the new OS is deployed (perhaps widely deployed). I think we're still 6 months away from all that. you can't blame the management or anybody else. i beleive they're doing a good job. but the next 6 months will be tough.
i've been on vacation, just came back and see wavx below $2 which is below 70 cents pre-split. No surprise. The quaterly earning numbers were good but CC was very disappointing. No signs the software is being activated, 2 government contracts were simply described as one-offs. yea, shipment with Dell and others will continue and grow, and they might make 1.5 mil this quater but under the circumstances that sucks.
i must admit that the numbers are pretty damn impressive. no trades after the closing yet, but the ask is at $3.49.
soter, what do you expect from sp facing 1/4 split and a new round of financing? while long term picture is still ok with TPMs shipping like crazy and WAVX software on most of them, the short term picture is really horrible. it's gonna be one long fight thru the end of the year to keep the sp above $1 (and that's aftet the split) imo
just wondering whatever happened to the us army's tpm drive. supposedly, they decided 2 quaters ago to go TPM 100%, hired WAVX as a consultant...
finally some good news.
my opinion:
as bad a reverse split sounds. it's way better than delisting. if it helps put off delisting, great.
is the 4-month (or was it 3 ?) army contract up already?
ramsey, good post. as far as your question, i'm not techy enough to answer that. sorry.
yea, but you know how it goes. you want to order a bunch of new machines from DELL, they try to sell you TPMs. you're like "why?". they explain. they use Vista as a major reason why you need TPMs. so in your head Vista/TPM relationship becomes like Santa Clause/Chrismass thing. but, just like you, I hope some smarter falks (US Army for example) will go ahead soon.
if you're right we should see some activation revenues coming in fairly soon. let's wait and talk about this again in 3 months.
Ramsey, who needs Vista at all, right?
go, you make it sound so simple. common! you're a tech guy. let's say Citibank gets thousands of TPM machines. Somebody is an employee there. He or she can not just turn it on. A decision has to be made on the highest level (CIOs, CFOs involved, budgeting...) in order to do this. let's be honest. you're the CIO. would not you wait for the new OS?
i agree. a couple of large clients would be enough. it would be nice (very nice) if the Army decided to start using TPMs this year, and not wait for the new OS. the previous cc (the one in march I think) started out with all that talk about how Army had decided to go 100% TPM.. we'll see.
rachelelise, as I stated on this board before, I don't think there will be a lot of activations before or even shorttly after the new OS comes out. I'd love to be proved wrong. But it's been 6 months since I posted that, and there are no activations or signs (except for rhe Army contract) that there is a large enterprise who might activate the WAVX software in near future. yes, TPMs are being shipped now left and right. but this is companies positioning themselves for the new OS and bulding TPM networks a year or two from now. just imo.
zen, what do you think about activations? i don't see any indication that the activations are coming any time soon. it's nice that the wavx software is being shipped by dell and others, but let's be honest, it's almost free. certainly not enough to generate enough revenues to break even, stop the PPs, etc.
absolutely!
like i said before, an army contract is the only chance this stock has to rally and avoid delisting from nasdaq. i hope they'll get it. or maybe they got it already but can't announce yet. we'll see.
i think what happened today with the stock price is good. i see the stock price rising from this point on. there will be no more drops. not tomorrow, not next week. but i'm not buying. not until i see some fat contract signed and the stock price moving aggressivly up towards $1.
it was interesting to hear that the Army has commited to go TPM 100%.
wavx is doing consulting for the Army for 3 months. as those 3 months pass, if wavx could land a big contract with the Army, that would certainly boost the stock price and prevent delisting.
yea... you and 10 other waivoids... the rest of the world will wait for the new OS. thank you very much.
i know.. i know... truth hurts. sorry
a trivial set back? you gotta be kidding. the delisting (if it happens) will be THE END. you have to realize the stage we're at. there are serious clients (including government) considering using wavx software and services. i imagine they're having a hard time as it is justifying doing business with a small company who does not have any money and whose stock price is under a buck. nobody, I repeate nobody, will consider giving wavx a serious contract if the stock gets delisted. if i am a CIO or CFO, I will never buy anything from a company if I'm not sure it will be around to support its product a year from now. think about that.
ok flyer. what's your best scenario here? let's see. 2 years from now, TPMs will be everywhere. working with the new OS, networks activated, etc. Let's assume the new OS won't kill off whatever WAVX has to offer. let's assume no other serious competiotion will emerge. wavx will make tons of money. nice dream. good luck.
bargain?! are you people for real? there are no revenues. there will be no revenues for the next 2 quaters for sure. the stock is about to be delisted. lol.
gowave, really common enough already. everybody is waiting for the new os...
wavxmaster, it's hard to see something that's not there. you can equal TPM future to WAVX future as much as you want. yet, one is bright and the other one hardly exists. your "one quater at a time" is cute. but i'm afraid wavx have run out of quaters.
what an incredibly high volume today! wow!! eom
the truth is simple and painfull. no serious business will set up and turn on their TPM network without the new OS.
if the terms are so great, why were not they announced? mark my words. wavx won't make any serious money off dell TPMs.
dig, lspro, nobody has seen the dell agreement. nobody knows what the terms are. you're wishing for the best case scenario.
lspro, dell 1.2 TPMs have been available since when? august? have you heard any announcement from dell or anybody else regarding goverment agencies or other business (forget the pizza dude) ordering, bulding TPM networks. Nope.
Look up my posts from a year ago. When everybody was expecting WAVX to make tons of money on 1.1 TPMs, I was probably the only one here who predicted that no money will be made. Common sence. Why would somebody buy/activate 1.1 TPMs when 1.2 TPMs were just around the corner?!
Similar situation with 1.2s. Why would anybody build TPM networks now BEFORE the new Microsoft OS comes out?
Sprague admited several times during CCs that what the WAVX software offers is essentially a temporary solution that will become unneeded once the new OS comes out. Do the math. You've got one year before it happens, with people in no rush to spend money on TPM networks. They might buy millions machines with a TPM chip (does not cost much extra) but it does not mean they are gonna do anything with the TPMs until they get the new OS installed.
dig, in order not to be called a bashing idiot, i guess one has to put all of his savings into wavx stock, and keep adding on at these rediculosly low levels. lol.
i will be the first one to admit that i'm no tech guru. yet i just like you i have a good common sence and a hunch. both tell me that the dell project is dead (as far as generating any meaningful revenue for wavx), just like intel motherboards project is dead, just like all the other dead puppies we've seen over the years.
do i think wavx is in trouble? probably not. i have a feeling they are about to come out with the next "cool" thing. my best guess - it's gonna be something with cell phones, or maybe paypal or xbox, definily something that has a buzz to it and can get the troops excited. there will be no money made at the end, as always, but many more rounds of financing will be able to take place.
i can explain why exactly i think wavx won't make any money off TPMs, but i don't think anybody cares.
they've been pouncing things for 15 years. computer security industry is a multi-billion dollar industry. it blows my mind that wavx has not made any money as of yet, after all these years.
i remember their embasy chip a few years ago. lol. now millions ot TPM chips are being produced. why is not the wavx the one making them? oh no. they decided to became a software development company instead. great timing. just pathetic... lol.