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awk - I can only speculate ...
Microsoft want to own the PC software world, and in some respects, they also want to own the server world. Let's leave it that general for now and move on. The PC OEMs have inherently been challenged by the one-and-done business model ~ meaning that once the PC is sold, that's been it for them as far as any ongoing or recurring revenue. Why? because Microsoft, and some hand-picked partners they work with work to ensure this model stays the way it is.
Enter Trusted Computing and Wave. At a minimum, we all agree that Wave's model is 'at least initially' as a SW utility solution grounded (relying) on seat license activation for its larger revenue stream. When Wave ultimately gets a seat license contract (utility services, attestation, key management), both Wave and the OEM now benefit from both the add-on and the recurring revenue stream. Wave even makes inroads into server/software revenue with KTM.
While a perfect model for Wave, and considered a better business model to the PC makers, this has to be considered by Microsoft, as a territorial creep by the OEMs on their revenue territory. I could be wrong!
sorry for my spelling errors
Looks to me like a battlefield is bing drawn between Microsoft and Infineon and the OEMs over Key Management, Attestation and single sign-on. We should all give this some attention as it would be important for us to see (through good DD) what's happening as far in advance as we can.
I believe the OEMs (and Wave) see this as an opportunity to creep into the software / utility management business, gaining important add-on seat license revenues, while Microsoft appears to want no part of them in their territory. I believe Infineon is using their only means possible to gain back some lost ground and credibility by teaming with Microsoft. As the elite marketing engine, Microsoft can make Infineon's shortcomings look minor, by releasing only specific parts of Vista that Infineon can service, while they work together to catch up.
If I'm way off, then I'm way off. But, If I'm not, this is serious stuff. Wave and its partners (Dell) need to strongly point out to their customers and prospects that interoperable security has never, and can never be assured by a company like Microsoft. My slogan in closed meetings would be:
IT'S A MATTER OF TRUST!
telstarjohn - these new hires could be in response to an anticipated second quarter close that we heard mentioned during the last cc.
internet - I don't find anything in your statements that disagrees with my opinions. I only tried to point out that I hope to see SKS grow the company as a result of real need (sales) as opposed to perceived need. If you're suggesting that SKS needs to hire these positions in order to keep Wave competitive as the "go to" company of choice, I don't know if I agree with that, based on the job descriptions.
I think these last couple of positions are SE (Systems Engineer) and Senior Consultant type positions. One sounds like theres a need for a technical resource that can provide product marketing material (White Papers), respond to RFPs (customer requirements) and demonstrate product/technology capabilities during sales calls. The other position sounds like a Practice Director or senior consultant role, where this role serves as the SME for things that customers want to do with the tchnology in their enterprise.
Both sound like roles that best serve real customer needs, not perceived needs, or keeping Wave on top as far as having the best and brightest employees. Although, if they do hire these positions, I'm sure they will be bright. I am just throwing out the idea that I believe Wave, in advance of all of us knowing yet, may be starting to see a elevated level of interest in their technology. Maybe, they've even started to see some pipeline sales getting close to imminent, and have begun hiring in anticipation of the close. The absolute best scenario, for me, would be that they've already got a big win, or two in sales, and these sales have already shown that they will quickly take up all of their exisiting resources, and now they need more as back-fill.
We'll see. Either way, I don't want to see the burn go up without some revenue producing reason.
regards,
t123
helpfulbacteria - Something to keep in our thoughts ...
As Wave begins to see more opportunity for Sales, we must all keep in mind that chasing a sale, does not mean that you automatically get the sale. Second, while I think it wise to grow your company to meet certain needs, adding to staff without the sales will definitely serve to move the cash-flow break-even line higher.
Let me be clear - I do not want to hear this song and dance throughout 2007 that we're not at breakeven, because of some of these rerasons. If the business is there, and we're adding to staff because we need the specialists to insert into the customer's community as a SME, or as part of a TC-COE then I'm all for it. But, if this is growing in anticipation of new contracts/work - I'm not.
Not that I know anything, or not that anyone cares, but it is just my opinion that prudent hiring is critical, while field-of-dreams hiring isn't at this point, if it hurts our SP and progress towards making a forward looking statement finally come to fruition.
dhmaster - you're a bit off on your estimates, unless you deal with a different government than I do
-RFPs are recieved at any time.
-RFPs usually aalow 1 -2 weeks to respond
-RFPs usually slim it down to top 2 or 3 players within that 1 - 3 week timeframe and enter a POC to select vendor or ask for best and final proposals if technology already proven.
-POC will last anywhere from 1 - 3 months.
Also, you should know that winning business in one area can make you RFP popular in a lot of other government areas. My guess is their Army progress has contributed to that being the case here.
stfzf - I just heard the guy on the Golf Channel (The Big Dog - Steve Duemig) say that same "golf clap" statement this past week on the Gray Goose 19th Hole Show. Is that where you heard it?
TraderJoe812 - You're not too far off ...
Many here are considered experts, or at least Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) in their own fields. Some are technical SMEs, while many others have had a reasonable amount of prior experience building start-up businesses from scratch, or growing mid-stage companies into publicly held companies. Still others have experience dealing with government accounts, major consulting companies and/or managed operations out-sourcers.
All-in-all, I would say you're not too far off when you refer to some posters on this board as so-called "experts". That being said, while we all have our own thresholds of patience, tolerance and frustration, many on this board are smart enough to realize the space that Wave is in, and the massive challenge they took on just to get a seat at the table.
We have all grown to learn, either by first-hand experience, or through this investment that even a great technology (like Wave's) does not just ubiquitously become the de-facto standard overnight. Without OEM players like Intel, AMD, NSM, and market influencers like Microsoft, HP, IBM and others, Wave would find it too difficult to influence and align all of the moving parts by themselves in a market of this size. Just look at all of the interoperability standards boards between SW and HW manufacturers, here and abroad.
Then add all of the integrated, and/or dependent security products (appliances) on the market, and their own standards that need to be convinced, and then proven viable. Now combine that with the challenge of educating the market and themselves via reference design iterations, pricing issues, scalability issues, ease-of-use issues, documentation needs, field training and testing, and finally, manufacturing lead-times and build cycles.
I won't go on, but suffice it to say that many of us are not as concerned about who charges a meal using the company credit card as we are whether the people charging those meals can:
1. Open the right doors with all of the right players
2. Demonstrate instant credibility whenever they're in the room
3. Have a clear vision, and show constant progress towards that vision.
4. Stay adequately capitalized until that vision is realized
5. Keeping the best interests of the company (and its shareholders) at the forefront of their minds.
6. Move the company to profitability, and to a point where the shareholders benefit from their actions
7. Pursue success with an undying passion, never giving up, and never losing site of #6
8. Show tangible progress that convinces the shareholders that the industry will, or is adopting the technology
9. Get invited to participate in the advancement of their technology, instead of being shut out.
10 And can get back to work right after they pay the bill.
It's not easy pulling off what Wave is trying to accomplish. And nothing, and I mean nothing, ever progresses at a cosnsitent pace, or in a straight upward line. That is why some of the "so-called" experts are still here. We may be lousy at playing the market the right way, but we believe we know a good business idea when we see one.
So we've all decided to base our investment and patience on what we know, and leave all of the things that we don't know up to others.
awk
Yes. I do like who we're already doing business with, and am extemely encouraged over progress from 1-year ago. It was just the quote that I didn't like.
I don't like this quote...
"Unable to match the marketing muscle of Cisco or Microsoft, TCG will have to rely on the grassroots support of vendors and enterprise customers like Papa Gino’s for TNC-compliant products, said Jon Oltsik of Enterprise Strategy Group, who has worked as a consultant for Trusted Computing Group in the past."
Keep updates coming please - can't listen. I'm being blocked by a firewall where I am
Looks like EDS is interested in what Dell has to say about Trusted Computing
A Matter of Trust. Secure Computing in an Age of Uncertainty - A synnovation Article PDF, 89K (13 Apr 06)
http://www.eds.com/search/search.aspx?st=1§ion=services&qt=trusted+server
Weets ---- maybeeeee!
I have not posted much of late, but I was very encouraged by the language in today's funding PR. Perhaps not the exact words but the intent was to inform all that Wave was in the process of "transitioning from a development company into an execution company", implying in their own way that they expect future revenues to play a major role in the future.
As one who has tried to maintain a realistic, or as I'd like to call it, an "emotional" say it how I feel it approach to this investment, I see no reason why I should not continue that position and express the great sense of encouragement that I felt after reading that PR.
If we haven't turned the corner on this stock quite yet, to me, that was at least a very good warning shot.
Very happy with the progress of late
Weby - OT
I'm coming up to NJ in June (3rd week) perhaps we can get together for Chinese once again?
kwduemig@optonline.net
SecureBlue - The only undeniable consideration regarding SecureBlue would be that IBM does currently control a fairly significant percentage of the managed operations out-sourcing contracts in this country, and a decent amount world-wide. Which means, they control what goes into the customer's operating environment, because they are responsible for any expenses incurred. Of course, the object is to save money always. But if you can off-set that with profits from the sale of more LPAR machines, then you might see it as just another way that Big Blue tries to tie you up so youu can't get out of using their stuff.
They did this very successfully in the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s until Microsoft finally changed the whole game.
Let's hope this is the game changer we all believe it to be
t123
Excuse Me - LPars "are" not competitive with anything Wave
unixguy - No LPars is not competitive to anything Wave.
cm - I too live in Austin now
I live up off of Rt. 620 and FM2222
Know where that is?
We should meet sometime.
Tampa123
Update 1: Intel Shows Off Technology for Companies
By DAN GOODIN , 04.24.2006, 08:21 PM
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http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/04/24/ap2693438.html
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Chip-maker Intel Corp., trying to stave off further encroachment by rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc., showed off technology designed to help businesses automate the management of large fleets of personal computers.
Intel vPro, which will start shipping in the third quarter, will make it easier for computer administrators to fix problems remotely over the network, eliminating in many cases the need for them to make costly visits to an employee's desk, Intel CEO Paul Otellini said Monday.
"It's all about driving costs down and productivity up," Otellini said. In an interview, he likened the product to "GeekSquad online," referring to the computer repair people who staff Best Buy stores.
Intel last week reported a 38 percent profit decline for the first quarter as AMD chips, many that outperform Intel's current offerings, stole market share. With most of AMD's gains in chips for consumer machines and computer servers, vPro appears to an attempt to prevent losses from spilling into the market for business PCs, long a position of strength for Intel.
VPro, which includes a combination of chips and software, also uses a technology called virtualization to safeguard machines against computer viruses and other types of malicious software.
It is part of a host of new products on tap designed to allow Intel to regain share in the second half of the year. Intel also plans to start shipping desktop and server microprocessors in the third that use a new chip design that offers higher performance and lower power consumption.
Intel is also countering with a new generation of factory equipment that etch 65 nanometer lines in silicon, thinner than the previous 90 nanometer features. The change will allow the company to increase the manufacturing capacity of its factories.
"Technology goes in cycles," said Otellini, who noted that cycles are typically centered on new products or new manufacturing techniques. "We're in the beginning of a new cycle."
Shares of Intel closed at $18.91, down 15 cents, in Monday trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
Correction - It seems that not all of the 13% is attributable to Dell, but that notebook PC sales are higher across the board.
DELL - Global PC shipments rise 12.9 percent in 1st qtr
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060419...
Wed Apr 19, 2006 7:41 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO, April 19 (Reuters) - Worldwide shipments of personal computers rose a better-than-forecast 12.9 percent in the first quarter, with nearly all regions doing better than expected, helped by strong notebook sales, according to data released by market researcher IDC on Wednesday.
Overall PC shipments climbed to 53.2 million from 47.1 million in the year-ago first quarter and Dell Inc. remained the No. 1 PC seller, with 18.1 percent of the PC market, although its growth slowed.
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"Market growth ahead of forecasts in almost all regions reflects continuing strong demand," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "While this bodes well for the short term, Dell's relatively slow growth may set the stage for more aggressive pricing in coming quarters."
He noted that while such price declines would help drive higher shipments, it would crimp overall profitability.
Dell rival Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) retained its position as the No. 2 PC maker with a market share of 16.4 percent. Lenovo (0992.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) was third, with 6.4 percent of the market and Acer (2353.TW: Quote, Profile, Research) was No. 4, with 5.5 percent of the market. Fujitsu/Fujitsu Siemens
barge - there is no more truck to back up
The trucks that I backed up in 98, 99, 00, 03, 04 and 05 have all provided enough good fill dirt to build a golf course on top of a concrete slab.
It's time now for Wave to put that dirt to good use, and make something out of it. If they do, I'll be plenty happy enough without having to back up yet another truck.
T123
CyberSource - Just one opportunity for Wave to ask their third-party-integrator partners to help get them in the middle of.
Wall Street Transcript
Electronic Transaction Processing a key topic of Wall Street Transcript Business Services Report
Wednesday April 12, 8:29 am ET
67 WALL STREET, New York--April 11, 2006--67 Wall Street, New York-The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Business Services issue, a report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 57-page feature contains an industry commentary through in-depth interviews with top management from 10- firms. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.
ADVERTISEMENT
Topics covered: Valuation expectations, Corporate profits impact, Outsourcing, Call centers, Bundled business services, BPO segment, Transaction processing market, e-Commerce retail sales, stock picks and stocks to avoid.
Companies include: Cbiz Inc. (CBIZ), Conversion Services International Inc. (CVN), Iceweb Inc. (IWEB), IHS Inc. (IHS), Impart Media Group Inc. (IMMG), International Monetary Systems Ltd. (INLM), Newmarket Technology Inc. (NMKT), Standard Register (SR), USA Technologies Inc. (USAT), Vistaprint Limited (VPRT). Analysts Include: Brandt Sakakeeny, Deutsche Bank Securities, Jim Macdonald & Todd Van Fleet, First Analysis Securities Corp., Gary Prestopino, Barrington Research Assoc.
In the following brief excerpt from the 57 page report, Gary Prestopino discusses the outlook for the electronic transaction processing sector and for investors.
TWST: What's the appeal of this transaction processing market?
Mr. Prestopino: All of the companies in this space have a high degree of visibility in both revenue and earnings growth with significant operating leverage and contractual transaction based business models. Growth for these companies is being driven by the long-term secular trend of increased usage of credit cards and debit cards in electronic transactions for payments at the point of sale. Industry studies cite expected growth rates in the use of credit cards between in the US at 9%-12% on a transactional basis over the next five years and from 14%-20% growth on a transactional basis in debit card usage-with higher growth rates expected for each in the international market, driven by the worldwide shift from paper to plastic for payments for goods and services.
TWST: What's at the top of your list today?
Mr. Prestopino: I have three companies that I want to focus on today, two of which are in an emerging growth space of electronic transaction processing within the electronic payment gateway space, CyberSource (CYBS) and Lightbridge (LTBG). The third company is a recent addition to my research coverage, Rewards Network (IRN), which is a leading provider of dining awards and loyalty programs in North America driven by the use of credit cards registered with the company's loyalty and rewards program.
Both CyberSource and Lightbridge provide electronic payment gateway services to online retailers. The electronic payment gateway business facilitates the use of card-based transactions for payments for goods and services purchased over the Internet. Very simply, an electronic gateway enables a computer to act as a point-of-sale terminal in an online transaction. When a purchaser uses his/her credit card for on online purchase, the online merchant needs an electronic payment gateway provider to facilitate the transaction. The electronic payment gateway will take the data from the credit card submitted by the purchaser and encrypt it, transport it over the Internet, and then send it to the respective electronic transaction processor that is processing the transaction.
The overriding secular growth theme for both CyberSource and Lightbridge is the movement toward e-Commerce transactions by both consumers and businesses. e-Commerce is currently a very small percentage of total retail sales, yet e-Commerce is growing quite consistently and rapidly as consumers continue to embrace the Internet for online retail transactions. Since 2001, e-Commerce sales have increased 20% to 25% annually totaling over $177 billion in the US and over $130 billion in Europe in 2005. Even with this solid growth, total US e-Commerce retail sales currently represent only a little more than 2% of annual retail sales.
TWST: What gives them that competitive advantage as a bundled product?
Mr. Prestopino: It gives them a competitive advantage in that it makes it very appealing to online merchants in that CyberSource becomes a single source vendor through the creation of an integrated payment hub with direct links to financial institutions in over 140 countries for all of the payment processing needs of the online merchant. With its product line rolled out, CyberSource is now an execution story versus a development story, which it was a couple of years ago.
In 2005 the company more than doubled its merchant base to 13,000 merchants and processed over 637 million transactions representing a 46% year-over-year increase. Global acquiring clients totaled 900 at the end of Q4/05 from 31 at the end of 2004. I firmly believe that if the company correctly executes its business plan over the next five years, this stock is going to reward investors on a long-term basis. Currently the company has operations in the US and Europe. Over the next two to three years I anticipate that CyberSource will be serving a worldwide client base, particularly in the high growth Pacific Rim region of the world.
In addition to its growth potential, CyberSource generates excess cash flow and has a $130 million net operating loss carryforward. Although the company will report the payment of taxes in 2006, it will not actually pay any federal taxes, which will enhance free cash flow generation. In December, at the end of Q4/05, CyberSource had $1.30 per share of net cash on its books. This should increase every year, barring any major acquisitions, as capital investment is minimal since the company is currently utilizing only about 15% of its processing capacity - which is also a very attractive facet of the story.
TWST: Who do they compete with, Gary?
Mr. Prestopino: Competitors in the electronic gateway payment space include Lightbridge and PayPal, although both focus on different segments of the online merchant market that includes small and medium-sized retailers. First Data (FDC) and eFunds (EFD) also have a gateway product as well, yet gateway services are not a core competency of the larger processors. In my opinion, there is no company in this space that has the depth and breadth of product line with bundled gateway and acquiring services serving both domestic and international markets to match CyberSource.
TWST: What's to stop some of these bigger guys from really focusing on this attractive business?
Mr. Prestopino: Well, if you combine the revenue of Lightbridge, CyberSource, and PayPal's businesses, you only have, at most, $200 million of revenue. There is nothing really to stop the merchant acquirors/processors from getting into this market, but the market is still a very small market relative to acquiring/processing. As companies such as CyberSource and Lightbridge attain critical mass, driven by the growth of online transactions, they may become attractive acquisition candidates for a larger electronic transaction processor who would rather buy than build a presence in the electronic payment gateway space.
http://biz.yahoo.com/twst/060412/zbx800.html?.v=1
knute and bluefin - just write to Matt the administrator.
zen88 - yep, assuming no activations or major purchasing enterprises with existing plans to activate one PCs are received.
As Usual
dig/zen - the one Zen was referring to was the one I thought that I responded to.
Dig - well then !@$%# Then I just responded to the wrong Snackman post. My bad
dig space - when did I chime in about the $20 million. All I said was that Dell's PR release was good news, and was something to be enjoyed, even if it's a momentary joy. I was not chimingin on anything to do with revenue predictions
gowave1 - but it is a good PR none-the-less
This time I'd have to agree that Snackman's point today is the stronger point that should be made. I guess the best way I can sum up my reasoning is "it is what it is!"
Today I saw Wave's Embassy Suite specifically called out by name in a Dell PR saying that all Dell PCs of the types mentioned will have Wave bundled in it, and that Dell feels that these added capabilities are necessary, and respond to needs being expressed by the market.
That's good news. When something good happens, if you can't acknowledge that, and celebrate the fact that you have gotten some good news, then perhaps you have gotten a bit too pessimistic.
Vader - Now that I would not find any argument with at all. I agree! Dell could absolutely release a PR that could potentially Vault Wave's share price into the stratosphere.
But that's not Wave ~ that's Dell.
While this is a possibility that we can agree on, I would then hope that you would agree that Dell would never release anything (PR or otherwise) just to help Wave's share price. They would only release something if it was in their best interest to do so.
If you agree, then we're still at a point of hoping this happens, and not assuming that this is anyone's current intention.
regards,
T123
barge - listen to yourself
you write:
Do you really believe that WAVE has no intention to launch some very impressive PRs to push the share price about a dollar thereby avoiding the need to apply for an extension?
You have to agree that whether they'd like to do that is not what you're implying here. Regardless of whether they'd like to do it, or not, what you are implying is that they somehow intend to launch a PR campaign that helps raise the share price above $1 within this time period.
That's bologna!
If they have something material to report that would be newsworthy enough to get their share price above a buck, why pray-tell would they wait to announce it? Conversely, if that newsworthy event is expected, but for whatever reason has not yet materialized, then it isn't reportable news yet, and therefore, can't be considered a current PR intention.
Therefore, it is you, and your overly optimistic reasoning that drives people a little crazy from time-to-time. While I enjoy your cup runneth over with all things Wave attitude, I sometimes feel like you're not living in the real world.
Wave doesn't have anything to report IMO. If they did, they would have reported it by now. It would help them with financing. It would help them with NASDAQ, and it would help them to report any positive industry adoption, or newsworthy events. It just doesn't make any sense to believe ~ especially after 10-years of constantly driven home experience with Wave ~ that Wave is holding back PRs.
T
kantblevit - Perhaps the employees at Enron felt the same way. Where's the logic in your statement?
88Carrera - No
I think a wise investor would wait a little longer.
helpfulbacteria - I can't and won't argue with your feelings.
Because they're your feelings, and you are perfectly entitled to them.
Hope you have a great day!
Regards,
Tampa123