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So we don't forget Rookie and his dream in the future I will refer to the "Houston 100" as the "Rookie 100".
Jim,
A very nice tribute to a fine man. We should look foward to toasting him at the "Rookie 100". My condolences to his family and his friends.
No, I recommended he buy. The fact is that this is a bad signal to send to the street. We just were able to top $19 for the first time in 2 months and this selling with market conditions brings us back to the 17's.
This is a mixed signal. Put a buyback in place to tell the street that you beleive the stock is undervalued then key insiders sell telling the street the stock is overvalued. Wish I could sell and replace my shares with some of those RSU's being handed out.
30-Apr-04 18.47 19.50 17.26 17.38 4,143,000 17.38
28-Jun-04 19.21 19.21 18.32 18.68 547,500 18.68
1-Jul-04 SHAY, LAWRENCE F.
Secretary 8,000 Sale at $18.55 - $18.6 per share. $149,0002
1-Jul-04 TILDEN, CHARLES R.
Chief Operating Officer 20,000 Sale at $18.55 - $18.76 per share. $373,0002
1-Jul-04 TILDEN, CHARLES R.
Chief Operating Officer 3,500 Option Exercise at $5.625 per share. $19,687
30-Jun-04 SHAY, LAWRENCE F.
Secretary 1,200 Sale at $18.84 - $18.86 per share. $23,0002
28-Jun-04 CAMPAGNA, HARRY G.
Director 1,725 Sale at $18.82 per share. $32,464
28-Jun-04 MERRITT, WILLIAM J.
Officer 20,000 Sale at $18.35 - $18.82 per share. $372,0002
I'm away and just got a call from my broker about insider sales. Brokers do not care about the story. They see insider sales and they equate these sales to the executives not being confident that the stock will go up. This is the message that was given wall street.
Born in the Bronx you have to be a Yankee Fan like I was. An incredible game last night both sides played with heart and soul. What does that have to do with IDCC?
In my opinion, it is not smart to route for a stock like you would route for your favorite sports team. I've seen many individuals over the years who run companies look out for themselves first before the shareholders. I'm not saying Merritt is guilty of this but what I am saying is that we should not hold back criticism just because we are routing for the stock to go up.
As owners of this company the employees, Merritt included work for us. It is like running a business. Sometimes when you criticise an employee you do it because you want him/her to perform better not because you wish to fire that person. I want Merritt to perform better so I am complaining not about his overall job but the pace at which these licenses are coming in. You may be critising him because insider selling sometimes has negative implications on the street.
In both of these cases I feel the criticism is fair. I have seen management listen to complaints and respond, that is what good companies do. So when shareholders who have hard earned money invested here complain, they have a right to at the very least be heard.
I want IDCC to do well but when I see faults I want to be able to state them without being labled a short or a basher or a Red Sox Fan.
I got the impression Merritt is running the show when it comes to licensing. He certainly has the confidence, drive and overall enthusiasm for the job. But...
A couple of points disturb me. First, I beleive he stated at the ASM that he does not need any outside help and they have enough people to accomplish this task. This squashed my question about adding some heavy weight business development or sales types that have proven track records from established technology companies.
Second, the overall company attitude is that they have as a group, licensing included performed outstanding. One only has to look at the share price in the 1 1/2 years since Ericsson and see that we have been basically flatlined.
3/17/2003 InterDigital Signs Royalty-Bearing Global 2G GSM/TDMA And 2.5G GSM/GPRS/TDMA Patent License Agreements with Ericsson and Sony Ericsson
17-Mar-03 16.71 19.70 16.67 19.54 6,413,400 19.54
I disagree with this premise. They have performed good but IMO, far from the kudos they feel they deserve. I beleive their are way too many deals left undone and I'm not satisfied with the pace at which Merritt and his team is approaching this task. While I'm happy with Sharp this was basically selling into IDCC existing customer base. We are now a year away from the RIMM signing and we have an HTC deal, a Sierra Wireless deal and an upgrade to Sanyo, good not outstanding.
6/04/2003 InterDigital Signs Research In Motion to Worldwide, Royalty-Bearing GSM/GPRS/EDGE Patent License Agreement
At this pace I estimate it will take 6 years to do all the deals that need to get down. 3 new accounts a year will no exactly qualify him for salesman of the year.
We can talk about Nokia being a Dam blocking the watershed all we want but at the end of the day Merritt needs to get more deals done or be replaced. Nice guy but so was Jimmy Carter.
I find the only credible reference for after hours sales to be nasdaq.com
InterDigital Communications Corp.
Pre-Market / After Hours Market Jul. 1, 2004 Market Close: $ 18.21
After Hours Trade Reporting Thursday July 1
After Hours
Last: $18.21 After Hours
Best Bid: N/A After Hours
High: $18.22
After Hours
Volume: 10,555 After Hours
Best Ask: N/A After Hours
Low: $18.16
After Hours
Time (ET) After Hours
Price After Hours
Share Volume
16.41 $ 18.21 2700
16.12 $ 18.21 1355
16.00 $ 18.21 5000
16.00 $ 18.16 300
16.00 $ 18.16 100
16.00 $ 18.16 500
16.00 $ 18.22 600
Jim,
I was all set to post something to oppose your position on the topic of insider sales when I stopped. The reason I stopped was because just because I see things differently doesn't mean you are wrong.
I'm more concerned with the pace of these economic discussions. Everytime I see an unlicensed company selling UTMS products I get angry. Howard's comments that they have over 800 adopted standards for UTMS products means nothing if they can't get licenses signed.
I can understand how insider sales are bothering you. All of these excutives feel they deserve to be rewarded. We are coming up on the 1 year anniversary of the 1st Nokia crash. A year ago we were sitting around at $24+ waiting for Nokia to "fill in the blanks". Now we sit around waiting for someone to pay IDCC for these patents.
2-Jul-03 24.02 24.95 24.02 24.94 790,500 24.94
As owners of this company we have two choices. First, sit around and accept that everything is fine and management is doing the very best for its shareholders. Or we can express our displeasure when we feel they are either not acting in the best interest of investors or not getting things done in a timely manner. Right now I'm not happy about the pace at which these licenses are being signed and I'd like to see Merritt step it up and earn this nice windfall he just made.
Did not stock NEC who co-produces 3G infrastructure with Siemans from paying IDCC. So why would it stop Novatel.
Excuses, excuses, excuses. Anyone selling UTMS products should pay. Novatel does not need to wait until 2G is settled with Nokia, they can follow the framework of RIMM and Sierra Wireless.
I would not be worried about Merritt's sale. Any good financial advisor would tell him to diversify. It is a smart move not to keep a large majority of ones net worth in a single stock. Too bad I'm not that smart.LOL.
Novatel does not have the financial resources to defend a law suit. It would be stupid for them to spend millions of dollars fighting a suit that they know they will lose. The big guys yes the little guys no way should they fight.
Thanks mschere,
Do you think my 2G and 3G handset numbers are accurate?
Where can I find a reference point to total 3G infrastructure projections for 2005 and 2006?
Getting to a guesstimate number will be everyone an idea of what price point IDCC should achieve.
I'm not concerned about options just performance. Why can't he get Novatel signed?
"Lucent and Novatel Selected by Orange to Supply 3G UMTS PC Cards"
They would not require large upfront 2G settlements. Clearly because they are manufacturing UTMS products IDCC IPR is inside this card. I don't want to hear about economic discussions and timetables. Get this done. Novatel has little leverage and this one should be a no brainer.
Arbitration is for 2G, not 3G
Initially when the Nokia arbitration happened I thought that this was about 3G rates. Now I feel that this is just about money pure and simple.
Recently I've been attempting to project the potential in terms of dollar amounts if everyone signs 2005 and 2006. I do not have the expert knowledge of Ronnie so I asked him for some help. I've outline 26 major events that need to occur for IDCC to achieve its proper revenue stream. Using the UTMS handset model projections posted on this board I came up with this formula.
WCDMA handsets at 1%.
2005
$310 unit price times 1% = $3.10 per unit times 48 million units = $148 million in WCDMA handset revenue
2006
$250 unit price times 1% = $2.50 per unit times 90 million units = $225 million in WCDMA handset revenue.
The report has projections of 766 million units in 2005. Not sure if these are all 2G.
At .4% it would equate to $135 unit price times .4% = .54 cents per unit times 766 units = $413 million dollars.
In 2006 we have $135 unit price * .4% = .54 cents * 843 units = $455 million dollars.
So 2005 reveue using this model is $150 million + $413 million = $563 million.
2006 revenue is $225 million + $455 million = $680 million.
Nokia is selling mostly 2G handsets. They will pay more to IDCC form 2G than anyone else. IMO, the reason they are fighting tooth and nail is to save money. They know Motorola will not pay for 2G and they think they should not either.
If anyone can please help me in this model, I'd appreaciate it. I do not know how accurate these projections are or if the simplicity applies here.
Press Release Source: Lucent Technologies
Lucent Technologies and Novatel Wireless Confirm Leadership in 3G UMTS PC Card Market with New Customer Contracts
Thursday July 1, 8:00 am ET
LONDON & SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 1, 2004--Lucent Technologies (NYSE:LU - News):
Agreements with Orange and Portugal's TMN Highlight Strong Customer Momentum and Global Reach
Lucent and Novatel Wireless Now Supplying Merlin U530 UMTS Wireless PC Card Modems to Ten Customers, Supporting 3G Service Rollouts in Twelve Countries
Lucent Technologies (NYSE:LU - News) and Novatel Wireless (NASDAQ: NVTL - News) today announced two new customer contracts for Merlin U530(TM) Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) PC Card Modems with mobile operators in Europe, further consolidating their leadership in the 3G UMTS PC card market. Following new agreements with Orange and Portugal's TMN, Lucent and Novatel Wireless are now supplying Merlin U530(TM) UMTS PC Cards to 10 major European and international operators, supporting commercial 3G service rollouts in a dozen countries.
By plugging the PC cards into a laptop and installing the necessary client software, UMTS customers are able to connect to their operators' UMTS networks, enabling access to their corporate intranets as well as high-quality streaming video and audio, secure mobile access to e-mail with large attachments and other information stored behind corporate firewalls at data transfer speeds of up to 384 kilobits per second.
Lucent and Novatel Wireless have previously announced UMTS data card contracts with operators including 3 (Australia, Denmark, Hong Kong, Italy, Sweden and the UK), e-plus (Germany), Telecom Italia Mobile (Italy), Telefonica Moviles Espana (Spain), O2 (Germany) and T-Mobile (Austria, Germany, UK).
"Today's announcements demonstrate the support that Lucent and Novatel Wireless are providing to mobile operators worldwide as they launch their 3G UMTS service offerings," said Roger Derrien, vice president for UMTS product management with Lucent's Mobility Solutions Group. "Our research demonstrates that there is a strong demand for high-speed data services among enterprise customers and this is confirmed by the purchasing decisions of the major European operators and their roll-out of commercial 3G services to the business market using these UMTS PC card modems."
"The success of our strong partnership with Lucent has helped establish the Merlin U530 as the dominant UMTS PC card modem in Europe and internationally," said Peter Leparulo, CEO of Novatel Wireless. "We are very pleased that the major operators in Europe are using our technology to coincide with their 3G deployments. Looking forward we expect to continue to build on our leading position in Europe. In addition, we will focus on replicating our success internationally as we incorporate our technology with leading carriers deploying 3G networks in Asia and North America."
ABOUT LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES
Lucent Technologies designs and delivers the systems, services and software that drive next-generation communications networks. Backed by Bell Labs research and development, Lucent uses its strengths in mobility, optical, software, data and voice networking technologies, as well as services, to create new revenue-generating opportunities for its customers, while enabling them to quickly deploy and better manage their networks. Lucent's customer base includes communications service providers, governments and enterprises worldwide. For more information on Lucent Technologies, which has headquarters in Murray Hill, N.J., USA, visit www.lucent.com.
ABOUT NOVATEL WIRELESS, INC.
Novatel Wireless, Inc. is a leading provider of wireless broadband access solutions. Novatel Wireless' Merlin(TM) PC Cards, Expedite(TM) Embedded Modems, and Freedom Box(TM) Ruggedized Modems enable high-speed wireless access to personal, corporate and public information via portable computers, handheld devices and vertical market applications. The company delivers innovative 2.5G and 3G solutions to operators, distributors and vertical markets worldwide. Headquartered in San Diego, California, Novatel Wireless is listed on Nasdaq: NVTL.
(C) 2004 Novatel Wireless. All rights reserved. The Novatel Wireless logo, Merlin, Merlin U530, Expedite and MobiLink are trademarks of Novatel Wireless, Inc. All other brands, products and company names mentioned herein are trademarks of their respective holders.
This release may contain forward-looking statements, which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended to date. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements contained herein. These factors include risks relating to technological changes, continued acceptance of and market demand for Novatel Wireless' products, projections of future results and dependence on intellectual property rights. These factors, as well as other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, are discussed in more detail in Novatel Wireless' filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (available at www.sec.gov) and other regulatory agencies.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Lucent Technologies - Mobility
Kurt Steinert, 973-386-8438 - Office
908-285-1641 - Mobile
ksteinert@lucent.com
or
Lucent Technologies - Europe
Emily Baxter,44-0-20-7318-1044 - Office
44-0-7803-278-821 - Mobile
baxtere@lucent.com
or
Novatel Wireless, Inc.
Kim Haneke, 858-812-0621 - Office
619-300-6437 - Mobile
khaneke@novatelwireless.com
The reason you have found this board to be a useful tool is because of JimLur's control. Jim has worked very hard to maintain this forum for investors and has created one of the best boards on the internet. Every society needs rules and enforcement of those rules. He has had to work like a referee at times because of fighting. He succeeds in keeping posts on topic so we do not have to go through post after post on the irag war when investors want to understand the current situation of IDCC. If everyone would just adhere to a few simple rules Jim would not have to police this board.
1. No cursing.
2. Stay on topic during the week.
3. No fighting or attacking other posters.
I like TeeCee and his points but the rules are the rules. I want these rules maintained regardless of the individuals. That is why we have quality here and not rampant spam or profanity laced dribbe like on Yahoo. Free speech is fine but disruptive speech is not.
Yes it is. I'd really like to see what revenue would look like assuming everyone is signed and paying.
I'm still trying to come up with a revenue model. I'd like to take the entire pie and cut it up based on current licensing terms. I'm using the WCDMA handset report posted here several weeks ago for numbers.
Lets assume that we get 100% royalties on 2005 and 2006 WCDMA handsets at 1%.
WCDMA handset forcast to get some rough 2005 and 2006 numbers.
2005
$310 unit price times 1% = $3.10 per unit times 48 million units = $148 million in WCDMA handset revenue
2006
$250 unit price times 1% = $2.50 per unit times 90 million units = $225 million in WCDMA handset revenue.
The report has projections of 766 million units in 2005. Not sure if these are all 2G.
At .4% it would equate to $135 unit price times .4% = .54 cents per unit times 766 units = $413 million dollars.
In 2006 we have $135 unit price * .4% = .54 cents * 843 units = $455 million dollars.
So 2005 reveue using this model is $150 million + $413 million = $563 million.
2006 revenue is $225 million + $455 million = $680 million.
Comments anyone?
In view of the advanced capabilities of WCDMA devices, notably video, internet browsing, interactive file transfers and location services – imposing far greater requirements on component technology, including camera and screen resolution, applications processors, internal and external memories, power amplifiers etc, their average price levels are poised to tower head and shoulder above that of the typical 2G handsets. On this basis, we factor in an average selling price of WCDMA gadgets of US$360-370 in the current year (down from US$450 in 2003), falling to US$310 in 2005 and by a further US$60 to US$250 in 2007. By comparison, the ASP of 2G handsets is estimated at US$138 and US$133 in 2005 and 2007 respectively. Accordingly, although diminishing the price premium attributable to 3G is expected to hover around 125% in 2005 and 90% in 2007. The revenue potential inherent in the 3G opportunity is thus disproportionately more favourable than what its shipment projections at first sight would suggest.
Breakdown of handset market by 2G and 3G (WCDMA) device categories
Parameter 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E
2G units (m) 557 672 766 843 910 960
3G units (m) 4 20 48 90 153 230
Total units (m) 561 692 814 933 1063 1190
2G growth (YoY) 116% 21% 14% 10% 8% 5%
3G growth (YoY) 800% 400% 140% 88% 70% 50%
Total growth (YoY) 17% 23% 18% 15% 14% 12%
The problem is if the modem part cost $20 and the retail price for the Treo is $600 how much money does IDCC receive? I can't beleive that the company will allow a part manufacturer to a handset manufacturer to become fully licensed.
Forget S/E, they won't sign until Nokia 2G is finished. LG really gets my goat. They are selling WCDMA handsets in direct competition with our best customer NEC while IDCC sits around like an 80 year old man who ran out of Viagra while someone(LG) is doing his 40 year old wife.
LG needs a bitch slap and bad.NOW.
LG may need a law suit. They probably won't move until Samsung. Samsung won't move until Nokia. Nokia won't move until Arbitration and the cycle goes on and on and on.
I can't understand why they can't get PALM and/or Novatel done. Is it vacation time in IDCC land? Hmmm, why not combine the two, Novatel is a stones throw away for Coronada Island in San Diego. Palmone is very close to Santa Cruz beach, perfect vacation spot this time of year.
These gaps in licensing frustrate everyone. One signee every 3 months is not exactly a stella performance. We know the big guys will take a while but time for some low hanging fruit.
Because of mschere's post I added 3 more companies to my list which is now upto 26 revenue events for 2005. One of these years when I get some time I'd like to take a stab at doing revenue projection for these events based on existing licenses. This will give a clearer picture of what price point IDCC can reach.
SIRI has a $3.7 billion market cap.
Market Cap: 3.73B
Also they had about $10 mil in unprofitable revenue last quarter with $120 mil operating loss.
Total Revenue 9,291
Cost of Revenue 22,124
Gross Profit (12,833)
Research Development 5,119
Selling General and Administrative 77,868
Non Recurring - 74,860
Others 23,688
Operating Income or Loss (119,508)
So the reason SIRI is worth 4 times IDCC is because Wall Street sees potential. The 26 items below represent IDCC's potential. Of these 26 items NONE appear to be priced into this stock. The fact remains that while SIRI may capture a heavy percent of its future market, the companies and events listed below MUST occur if international patents have any meaning.
1. Nokia 2G revenue.
2. Nokia 3G.
3. Samsung 2G.
4. Ericsson 3G.
5. Samsung 3G.
6. Siemans 3G.
7. LG 2G.
8. LG 3G.
9. Motorola 3G.
10. LU products.
11. Nortel products.
12. Panasonic 3G.
13. IFX chips.
14. Palmone.
15. Novatel.
16. UTSI.
17. IP Wireless
18. BENQ.
19. HP/COMPAQ.
20. Alcatel.
21. Kyrocera.
22. Pantech & Curitel.
23. Toshiba.
24. Hitachi.
25. Mitsubishi.
26. Fujitsui.
P.S. Please feel free to add. Dell? Intel?
Maybe the Entrepreneur Of The Year can fly over to San Diego to get Novatel Wireless to sign a contract. I'll even chip in for plane fair.
Novatel Wireless Inc
9255 Towne Centre Drive, Suite 225
San Diego, CA 92121
Phone: (858) 320-8800
Fax: (858) 812-2888
Or it will only take 42 hours to drive
Starting from: 781 3rd Ave, King Of Prussia, PA 19406-1409 Save Address
Arriving at: 9255 Towne Centre Dr Ste 225, San Diego, CA 92121-3059 Save Address
Distance: 2753.3 miles Approximate Travel Time: 42 hours 21 mins
Time for a new license!
The SANYO discussion is all well and good but it is time for IDCC to sign some low hanging fruit, PALMONE or NOVATEL. My list of potential revenue streams for 2005 keeps growing. I believe I'm now at 23 revenue events with 21 agreements needed to get done.
I already have about 30 people in this stock. My new sales pitch is simple, these companies will eventually be legally bound to pay. Short and sweet. Moving away from weakened 2G patents one can assume that because of the 800 accepted patented standards that IDCC owns no company can legally produce UTMS products without a license of some sort.
So I feel the options are simple. You can pay me now or you can pay me later. Somehow IDCC must come up with a strategy that makes it more attractive for firms not to infringe and make in cost more money if they pay later. So you can pay me now or pay me a hell of a lot more later.
Bottomline this list keeps growing. Uncle Billy needs to start crossing off some of these events if this stock is going to start to really move.
1. Nokia 2G revenue.
2. Nokia 3G.
3. Samsung 2G.
4. Ericsson 3G.
5. Samsung 3G.
6. Siemans 3G.
7. LG 2G.
8. LG 3G.
9. Motorola 3G.
10. LU products.
11. Nortel products.
12. Panasonic 3G.
13. IFX chips.
14. Palmone.
15. Novatel.
16. UTSI.
17. IP Wireless
18. BENQ.
19. HP/COMPAQ.
20. Alcatel.
21. Kyrocera.
22. Pantech & Curitel.
23. Toshiba.
OT:Bob,
Skiing? Everybody knows that snowboarding rules. Kind of like not owning a cell phone and using a pay phone all the time. LOL. My preference is Sugarbush.
If IDCC's 3G rate is 1% or 1/5 QCOM's 3G rate shouldn't we eventually be priced at 1/5 QCOM's market cap? Would be nice.
ot: Stopped service a couple of years ago. Also have a Palm VII with built in internet access. Would of, Could of, Should of bought HAND at a little over $1.00. Hats off to PLMO with a blow out quarter. I thought they were dead once the momentum left the PDA business. Always knew that the phone was the way to go. Too many devices for people to carry.
I'll see your hundred and raise you 500.
I bought a couple of blocks this morning to add to my position. I now beleive that a Nokia loss is priced into the stock. Really like to see Merritt nail PALMONE. Not a big dollar value but another major name. I'm probably going to buy myself a Treo and retire my old handheld palm with its Novatel modem.
KNOCK! KNOCK!
WHO'S THERE?
Uncle Billy.
Uncle Billy who?
Uncle Billy from IDCC who wants you to put your John Hancock on this license agreement.
Reuters
PalmOne Swings to Quarterly Profit
Monday June 21, 7:52 pm ET
By Franklin Paul
NEW YORK (Reuters) - PalmOne Inc. (NasdaqNM:PLMO - News) on Monday reported a profit that was more than twice Wall Street estimates on strong sales of its Treo 600 combination mobile phone and digital organizer, and set aggressive forecasts, which boosted its stock by 22 percent in after-hours trade.
ADVERTISEMENT
The shares rose to their highest level this year after palmOne posted its first profit as a stand-alone company. It is the hardware arm of the former Palm Inc., which split off its software side last year.
PalmOne said it is optimistic about increasing profitability in the current year, as the percentage of its overall sales of high-growth communications devices, also called "smartphones," increases to about 50 percent, from 28 percent in the fourth quarter.
Analysts cheered this anticipated evolution for palmOne, noting that hundreds of millions of phones are sold each year, dwarfing the entire market for handheld computers.
"Once they become more heavily weighted to the smartphone market, their growth has an opportunity to accelerate, because the handset market is such a green pasture," said analyst Jonathan Hoopes of William Smith Company.
Fourth-quarter net income was $13.3 million, or 27 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $15 million, or 51 cents a share, a year earlier. Wall Street analysts were expecting earnings of 13 cents per share.
Revenue rose to $267.3 million from $217.1 million in the period, which ended in May. Wall Street analysts had expected the company to deliver revenue of $253 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
TAKING SONY MARKET SHARE
During a conference call with analysts the company also said it would attempt to gain market share later this year created by the absence of Sony Corp. (Tokyo:6758.T - News), which recently said it would stop selling new handheld computers outside of Japan.
While demand for the pocket digital organizers has decreased sharply in recent years, palmOne has scored with sales of less expensive devices and the Treo line, which combines a phone with a handheld computer that is capable of instant messaging and creating and receiving e-mail.
But the company still faces tough competition from niche rivals, such as Research In Motion's (Toronto:RIM.TO - News) BlackBerry e-mail machine, and far bigger phone makers like Nokia (NOK1V.HE)
PalmOne said it shipped some 1.1 million devices across all of its Zire, Tungsten and Treo brands during the fourth fiscal quarter, including 151,000 Treo 600s. In all the company shipped some 4.1 million devices during the year.
Looking ahead, it said it sees fiscal first-quarter profit of 12 cents a share on revenue of $250 million to $260 million, and full year profit of $1.15 a share to $1.25 a share, on revenue of $1.21 billion to $1.29 billion.
Analysts had expected the company to break even on revenues of $237.6 million for the first quarter and earn 73 cents a share on revenues of $1.14 billion for fiscal 2005.
Shares of palmOne climbed about 22 percent in after-hours trading, rising to $26.30 from $21.46 at the close on the Nasdaq.
Had Nortel just added Alcatel. Thanks GAMCO. My confidence level is at an all time high so the stock will probably go down. LOL. The simple fact is that the 3G IPR is very strong and I can not see how these companies can sell products that infringe on IDCC's IPR and not eventually end up paying.
No problem I'll just add HP/COMPAQ to my list of potential revenue streams for 2005 and it now stands at 20. Please feel free to add any streams that I may have missed. I beleive in order to fully understand the future valuation of this company one must understand how many companies must pay and the amounts on a quarterly basis. If an analyst were to ever try to quantify these numbers based on existing licensing rates the valuation of IDCC would rise significantly.
1. Nokia 2G revenue.
2. Nokia 3G.
3. Samsung 2G.
4. Ericsson 3G.
5. Samsung 3G.
6. Siemans 3G.
7. LG 2G.
8. LG 3G.
9. Motorola 3G.
10. LU products.
11. Nortel products.
12. Panasonic 3G.
13. IFX chips.
14. Palmone.
15. Novatel.
16. UTSI.
17. IP Wireless
18. BENQ.
19. HP/COMPAQ.
20. Alcatel.
" I don't think the busines plan could withstand another major lawsuit."
By the end of 2005 IDCC can quite possibly have 18 new revenue streams.
1. Nokia 2G revenue.
2. Nokia 3G.
3. Samsung 2G.
4. Ericsson 3G.
5. Samsung 3G.
6. Siemans 3G.
7. LG 2G.
8. LG 3G.
9. Motorola 3G.
10. LU products.
11. NT products.
12. Panasonic 3G.
13. IFX chips.
14. Palmone
15. Novatel
16. UTSI
17. IP Wireless
18. BENQ.
So if they lose number 1 it will hurt but I strongly beleive the company can withstand another 2G loss with some big 3G wins.
Nokia probably wants to pay what Motorola is paying for 2G, NOTHING.
Unlike the Motorola decision even if Nokia were to win and SNE is declared not to be a trigger IDCC will do fine. With more and more 3G roll outs IDCC has more and more customers to sign.
Todays deal between UTStarcom and Audiovoxx puts UTSI on the radar screen. I don't beleive signing them would require a huge settlement like an LG would so it should not be as difficult.
I think the low hanging fruit would be Palmone, Novatel, UTSI, IP Wireless and BENQ. Wouldn't it be great to get 3 new licenses before Nokia arb. Get quarterly revenues up to $40 million with some serious 3G licensing momentum. This RIMM/NTP suit has got to be good for IDCC. Why would a Novatel want to spend money to fight a law suit that they would probably lose.
With 1000 patents and 800 standards accepted by UTMS (I think that is what Howard stated) IDCC's IPR in 3G is so much stronger than the patents that were involved in the Ericsson suit in which Nokia is claiming their payments are based on. (or something to that affect).
Lastly I must comment on the timing of the buyback. This one was well thought out and extremely effective. My hat is off to the Board of Directors on this one. The Nokia news could have caused a panic selling and price crash down to $15 again. Especially with the NASDAQ reversing itself back down under 2000 again. This is how to protect shareholders equity. WELL DONE.
Personally, I'd like to see this Nokia mess put behind ASAP. The more I thought about it the happy I am that Judge Lynn granted Nokia's request. Arbitration needs to take its course and if she denied the motion Nokia would have appealed. They would have also asked the arbitration panel to delay the hearing based on the appeal. I would like to see focus on 11 potential revenue streams that I have outlined below.
1. Nokia 2G revenue.
2. Nokia 3G.
3. Samsung 2G.
4. Ericsson 3G.
5. Samsung 3G.
6. Siemans 3G.
7. LG 2G.
8. LG 3G.
9. Motorola 3G.
10. LU products.
11. NT products.
How many of these potential revenue streams are tied up by this arbitration?
Each one of these events represents millions of dollars in quarterly revenue. Provided this wish list of 11 events gets done their will be major stock price movement each time one of these events occur.
I'm no lawyer but I beleive that Judge Lynn decided in December that she would grant access to these sealed documents not to Nokia directly but to Nokia's legal counsel. Also they would be made available to the arbitrators if they specifically asked for a document.
I also believe that IDCC will conceed letting these documents into the arbitration process. They will argue the relevance of these documents in arbitration and let the arbitors ultimately decide waht happens. I hope that this is the case so no more delays need to occur.
"The Company continues to assert in the Nokia arbitration that issues of patent validity and infringement are not relevant to the arbitrable royalty dispute. The Company intends to vigorously contest any Nokia position to the contrary in the arbitration."
"IMO, this Arb decision is worth about $3/4Billion to InterDig"
You are assuming that the arbitration agrees with IDCC's position 100%. That is a huge assumption. A bird in hand comes to mind.
Everyone thought Smarty Jones would win the Belmont. They turned down a guarenteed $24 million if they lost $30 if they won in stud money. Now stud fees are at $12 million. (heard it on the FAN so blame Mike F. if I'm wrong.
I also have faith that these guys will do the best thing possible for the company. And right now I feel the best thing possible for them to do is settle.
Too many wars to fight.
Settling with Nokia right now is smart business. The amount of wars that need to be fought are climbing and a settlement leaving the .4% forward going rate for 2G in tact makes sense.
1. Nokia 2G arbitration.
2. Nokia possible 3G arbitration.
3. Samsung 2G arbitration.
4. Ericsson 3G license.
5. Samsung 3G license
6. Siemans 3G update
7. LG 2G license.
8. LG 3G license.
9. Motorola 3G license.
10. LU products.
Everyone one of these major deals need to get done. All of these companies are now selling products in these categories without sending any money to IDCC. Points 1,2, and 3 are license disputes. Points 4 thru 9 are potential law suits with 10 being a current law suit.
We can high five the Sanyo deal all we want but these 10 items are what needs to get accomplished if this company is to attain fair valuation in the market. You just can't have NEC paying IDCC license money for WCDMA handsets they sell to Hutchinson and LG selling into NEC customer base and not paying a license.
Settlements can be creative. If it is done in a way that does not affect current paying licenses then do it. I don't want to see 3 to 4 years of court battles because everyone wants to go to the mat.
Nokia implemented a strategy which they hoped would strengthen their position at the bargaining table. If the win yesterday speeds up the process in getting a deal done this will be very positive for shareholders.
My concern is forward revenues and share price. Each one of the 10 items mentioned should be a revenue stream now. In each one of these 10 cases represents a forward revenue stream for IDCC. If the company is able to get all 10 things accomplished IDCC share price will rise permanently after each signing.
IMO, getting these items done starts right at number 1 with Nokia. If IDCC can get this done quickly, they can move on to 2 thru 10 and the share price will start to rise very rapidly.
Reasons for a settlement.
I believe a settlement will happen prior to the Jan. 05 hearing with past due money substantially reduced.
First, we all expected a windfall from the Ericsson suit. Hundreds of millions of dollars in back due revenue was the expectation.
In June of 2002 we got this from IDCC.
"As previously reported in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each party has filed pre-trial motions with the Court under seal seeking to limit issues at trial and to dismiss the other party’s case in whole or in part. The Judge has ruled on portions of the pre-trial motions of both parties, removing certain patent claims from further consideration with regard to the infringement issues in the District Court case, the effect of which is to narrow the issues remaining for trial. The Company believes these rulings, which remain under Court seal, do not materially affect the relief sought by InterDigital Technology Corporation. Court ordered mediation continues and no trial date has been set."
The removal of these patents may very well have led to the reduced settlement.
Now after the Ericson deal with all orders presumed vacated, IDCC declares this.
"Based on the Company's application of the MFL provision, currently available third party estimates of Nokia's and Samsung's sales of covered products in 2002, and the Company's assumptions regarding such items as Nokia's and Samsung's sales mix, selling prices, and market share, the Company projects that Nokia's royalty obligation for 2002 could be in the range of $100 million to $120 million and Samsung's royalty obligation for 2002 could be in the range of $22 million to $27 million. Further, based on the application of the MFL provision and assumptions noted above, recent market forecasts, and the prepayment of royalties (net of related discounts) consistent with the terms of the Ericsson and Sony Ericsson agreements, the Company projects that 2003 royalty revenue from Nokia could be in the range of $80 million to $90 million, 2003 royalty revenue from Samsung could be in the range of $20 million to $24 million, and the aggregate prepayment of royalties from Nokia and Samsung for 2003 and 2004 could be in the range of $180 million to $220 million. "
IMO, yesterday the game changed for IDCC. Now they have a weaker case due to the reinstatement of some adverse ruling. But they still have a case and very, very valuable 3G IPR.
I also believe that IDCC management anticipated problems from the Nokia motion to reinstate and that is why they have backed off publishing and talking about these past due amounts.
Nokia wants the $500 million (2002-2006) reduced make no mistake about it, they stated this during the December hearings. Nokia also wants a reduced 3G rate. IDCC wants to collect past due royalties starting from Jan. 2002 onward. IDCC also wants a complete rate set for 2G/3G going foward.
Time for a WIN-WIN deal like the Ericsson settlement so both sides will be happy. I would not be surprised if a creative deal is worked out and Samsung is left holding the bag just like Nokia was left holding the bag after Ericsson. Something like 2002 money removed, the $58 million dollar engineering money applied to the 2003 revenues and all rates based on the .4% pre-payment discount. Hopefully this will be bundled with a 3G rate. IDCC walks away with some cash but more importantly FOWARD REVENUES from the date of the deal on. Samsung is then left all by itself WITHOUT ANY 3G LICENSE and illegally infringing on IDCC 3G IPR on a daily basis.
DIVIDE AND CONQUER.
I really hope you are wrong and their is no more delays for 2G. IDCC already lost one case, Motorola and what we as shareholders do not need is another long drawn out battle in 2G. The $300+ million currently owed from Nokia should be negotiated down to put this event behind the company. What I'd like to see is 3G money flowing in and 100% of all companies selling 3G products paying. This is how the shareholders will make serious money.
The worst case scenario would be an appeal which may cause a delay in Jan. 05 arbitration. If this event is causing some major 3G vendors not to sign (Ericsson, LG, Motorola) then we need to play it out and get this saga done with. No more courts for these heavily litagated, old 2G patents.
We need to start receiving revenues from LG's recent roll out with Hutchingson, Nokia's 3G initiatives, Motorola's phones, Samsungs 3G. This is the revenue stream that will take this company to the next level.
Bottomline, the storyline for IDCC needs to change. It should no longer be about what Nokia owes. It should be about what new phones are produced today and what fare royalty in 3G and 2G IDCC should receive going foward.
I just consulted with an expert on this topic and what you have stated is basically what he said. With the ruling from the Ericsson trial, Nokia now can have the arbitrators reduce the payments based on non-infringement of IDCC's IPR. This is a $500 million dollar decision and Nokia would not have gone to these lengths if they did not feel they could win concessions in arbitration.
The fact still remains that this will not affect IDCC in the long run on their bread and butter IPR, 3G. Fighting for old 2G patents with stripped out claims will not bring this stock to where it needs to be. This chapter has been frustrating and it is time to move on. The $500 million dollars will be chopped and hopefully a nice 3G license will come out of it.
So after 4 years of wondering when phase II will start, then when the rate will be set, then when the contract will be signed, then when the arbitration will be finished, it is time for this company to move past Nokia 2G and start collecting 100% of 3G royalties from everyone.
I do not beleive the arbitration will be moved one way or another. IDCC will not fight today's decision and will present its case regardless of court documents. Nokia has the documents and the ruling it wanted to precede with arbitration. No delays are needed and I can't see the arbitration panel deciding to move things up.
"Of course, we continue to focus appropriate internal and external resources toward the resolution of arbitrations with Nokia and Samsung and litigation with Lucent. Under a draft schedule proposed by the arbitration panel in the Nokia matter, an evidentiary hearing would be conducted in January 2005, with a decision expected sometime thereafter. The arbitration with Samsung remains at an early stage, with panel selection still underway. The recently filed patent infringement suit against Lucent is also at an early stage. We are confident in our positions in these matters," concluded Mr. Goldberg."
His handle is sjratty. And he is the only poster on this board that correctly identified the time frame of the Nokia arbitration last July. I respect his views as an attorney with experiance in patent law.
You have a right to a counter opinion.
Walks like a Duck.
I could never understand why Howard would stick his neck out declaring victory and $100 million per year (estimate) that Nokia would pay. It never made sense that he would state this without being sure Nokia would pay. Well they didn't.
Now the numbers mysteriously disappeared and Nokia gets the vacated orders re-instated. My opinion is one that these orders will help Nokia reduce past due amounts significantly in arbitration, same as sjratty's post.
I could be wrong and I hope I am.
I've said this before and I'll say it again. I would give up 2002 and 2003 revenues for a settlement today leaving 2004 and beyond in place.
"Posted by: sjratty
In reply to: None Date:6/10/2004 1:34:49 PM
Post #of 72303
My best educated guess from all of this is that Nokia has some sales using a single base station system and some that don't. Nokia may argue to the panel that it does in fact owe IDCC a royalty, but only on the non-single system phones (because it shouldnt have to pay on products that IDCC can't license). As a result, the amount of $ it owes is much less than IDCC says.